Role of the natural and anthropogenic radiative forcings on global warming: evidence from cointegration–VECM analysis

Over the last few years there has been much debate about the hypothesis that anthropogenic emissions of CO₂ and other greenhouse gases increase global temperature permanently. By using recent advances in time series econometrics, this paper tries to answer the question on how human activity affects Earth’s surface temperatures. Bearing in mind this goal, we estimated the long-run cointegration relations between global temperatures and changes in radiative forcings by a set of perturbing factors. We found that the temperature response to a doubling in radiative forcing of anthropogenic greenhouse gases is + 2.94 °C [95 % CI: + 1.91, + 3.97], in perfect accordance with prior research, and that the orthogonalized cumulated effect over a 100 year time period, in response to a unit increase of size of one standard deviation in greenhouse gas radiative forcing, is + 3.86 °C [95 % CI: + 0.03, + 6.54]. Conversely, the amplitude of solar irradiance variability is hardly sufficient to explain observed variations in the Earth’s climate. Our results show that the combined effect of stochastic trends attributable to anthropogenic radiative forcing variations are driving the Earth’s climate system toward an ongoing phase of global warming, and that such long-run movement is unlikely to be transient.     

Klimaänderung—Was weiß die Wissenschaft?

In the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC), scientists worldwide are working on a holistic view of climate development. This accommodates highly complex interactions between natural occurrences, their effects and human activity as far as possible. Uncertainties are expressed in terms of confidence levels. The Third Assessment Report presents the following cases: Human activities have generally increased the atmospheric concentrations of green-house gases and their radiative forcings during the 20^th century. The resulting radiative forcing is positive (warming) with a small uncertainty range; that from the direct aerosol effects is negative (cooling) and smaller; whereas the negative forcing from the indirect effects of aerosols (clouds and water cycle) might be large but is not well quantified. An increasing body of observations gives a collective picture of a warming earth and other changes in the climate system. Observed changes in regional climate during the past 50 years have affected biological and hydrological systems in many parts of the world. There are preliminary indications that social and economic systems have also been affected. Local, regional and global environmental problems are often interlinked in ways that, in total, affect the sustainable satisfaction of human needs. The Projections of all SRES scenarios show an increase of the globally averaged surface temperature within the 21^st century at a rate which is very likely to be without precedent during at least the last 10,000 years, based on paleoclimate data. Adaptation is a necessary strategy at all scales to complement climate change mitigation efforts. Together they can contribute to sustainable development objectives.     

Klimawandel und Bachforellenrückgang – gibt es einen Zusammenhang? Resultate aus der Schweiz

Background, aim, and scope In response to a 60?% decrease in brown trout catch between 1980 and 2000, a Swiss-wide search was initiated to investigate possible causes. The project, named ‘Fischnetz’ (fishing net), investigated 12 hypotheses. One of those suggested a detrimental effect of global climate change. I report here which parameters changed and what the possible consequences for native brown trout are. Materials and methods The literature is critically analysed and results are synthesised to show the interactions between different climatic factors and their effects on fish. Results In the last 25 years, an increase in temperature by approximately 1?°C was indicated in the rivers of Switzerland. This is associated with an earlier emergence of trout from the gravel. Warming results in an upward shift of the preferred thermal habitats. Furthermore, an increase in the clinical outbreak of the Proliferative Kidney Disease PKD (for which a temperature of 15?°C for more than 2–4 weeks is necessary) can be recorded. The precipitation pattern changed and an intensification of high floods in winter results in higher erosion. This can in turn lead to an increased level of fine sediments which may affect health of juvenile brown trout and is assumed to reduce reproduction success. Discussion The consequences of climate change are discussed in concert with other anthropogenic factors. Storage reservoirs, as well as water withdrawal (and return of heated water, respectively) affect temperature profiles and sediment load. Fragmentation, channelization and straightening of rivers accelerate clogging and restrain fish from upward migration and evacuation to more suitable habitats. Conclusions With increasing temperatures a downsizing of habitats of cold-water fish species, as well as an increase of diseases which are temperature sensitive, is assumed. Recommendations and perspectives Mitigation measures which lead to a morphological improvement of river systems, such as river widening and improvement of the connectivity between river stretches and their tributaries, as well as improving river bank vegetation, are recommended.     

Globaler und regionaler Klimawandel

The interdependences between climate and humanity are becoming increasingly apparent, which makes climatology an upto-date and strongly discussed subject. Its task is to identify and examine relatively long-term, regional and global, natural and anthropogenic developments. A global, long-term view reveals a striking increase of surfacenear air temperature since the beginning of the industrial age. On a regional scale, trends differ considerably, but also Germany shows an apparent trend of increasing temperature and precipitation. The development of extreme events is more difficult to judge; the heat summer of 2003 in Europe, however, is among the phenomena that are likely to occur more frequently in the future. The influence of different natural and anthropogenic factors on the climate is expressed, amongst others, through their radiative forcings. Greenhouse gases emitted from anthropogenic activities are of particular significance since their concentration in the atmosphere keeps increasing. Mathematical modeling has made it possible to reconstruct the climate development of the past with increasing precision. The currently observed warming can only be comprehended by assuming anthropogenic influences. For the future development different scenarios have been calculated in order to deduce strategies for necessary action.     

Driving mechanisms of desertification process in the Horqin Sandy Land—a case study in Zhalute Banner, Inner Mongolia of China

Both natural and human factors contributing to desertification were examined to understand the driving mechanisms of the desertification process in Zhalute Banner, Inner Mongolia of China. The coefficient of variation (CV) and climate departure index (Z) were calculated to examine the fluctuations and trends of interannual variations of temperature and precipitation; TM remote sensing data was extracted to obtain the sandy land area; linear regression analysis was used to analyze climate changes and the socio-economic evolution over the years, and it was also used to standardize the variables, which included annual temperature, annual precipitation, human population, and livestock number, in order to measure the difference in the rate of change between climate and anthropogenic factors. The results showed that there was a rise of about 1.6°C in temperature but no significant change in precipitation from 1961 to 2000, which indicated a short-term climatic trend toward aridity in this area, a condition necessary for desertification. The fraction of precipitation in spring tended to increase whilst the fraction in autumn and winter decreased. Both the human population and livestock population had tripled and the cultivated area had doubled from 1961 to 2000, suggesting that socio-economic factors might have contributed more significantly to the desertification. Between 1988 and 1997, the sandy land area increased by 12.5%, nearly 2.4 times in the farming section. It could be concluded that the driving mechanisms of the desertification processes in Zhalute banner are mainly the policy of cropland expansion and the rising populations of humans and their livestock, which has affected the land use pattern in the past decades.     

Aktuelle Aerosoltrends an der GAW Globalstation Hohenpeißenberg und ihre Relevanz für Luftreinhaltung und Klima

Aim and Scope

This study was aimed at representing current aerosol trends measured at the GAW global station and their relevance for the present fine dust discussion and a possible impact on climate.

Results and Discussion

1) The intensive GAW measuring program at Hohenpeissenberg covers numerous parameters for the characterization of the physical, optical and chemical characteristics of the atmospheric aerosol. The time series of the number concentration of ultra fine particles with diameters of about 0.004 to 3 μm shows an increase of about 50% since 1995. 2) The introduction of soot particle filters would lower the dust mass only slightly since soot particles from diesel cars only about 8–10% contribute to the dust mass, but about 90% to the number concentration of particles. 3) The single scattering albedo (SSA) is a key parameter determining whether the existing aerosol mixture causes a cooling (negative radiative forcing) or a warming (positive radiative forcing) in the atmosphere. At Hohenpeißenberg the SSA changed from 0.85 to 0.91 in the time period 1999 to 2005, i.e. the regional aerosol as a whole is dominated by scattering rather than absorbing particles.

Conclusion and Perspective

From current aerosol trends at the GAW global station Hohenpeißenberg it was possible to analyze their relevance for air pollution control and possible influences on climate. Dust mass is not a suitable parameter for accessing the contribution of diesel engined vehicles. Measuring the number concentration of particles much more reflects the influence of diesel engined vehicles and also shows, as expected, an upward trend due to a strong increase of the fraction of diesel vehicles in comparison to the total number of cars. Aerosol particles scatter and absorb solar radiation and thus cause a cooling or warming in the atmosphere. Calculated values of the single scattering albedo at Hohenpeissenberg show, that in the initial years the aerosol did not diminish the temperature rise, but rather caused it to increase. Only a data comparison from a global network like GAW can demonstrate, if the results are even representative for the large scale situation.     

Mechanisms of moisture stress in a mid-latitude temperate forest: Implications for feedforward and feedback controls from an irrigation experiment

While it is well established that stomata close during moisture stress, strong correlations among environmental (e.g., vapor pressure deficit, soil moisture, air temperature, radiation) and internal (e.g., leaf water potential, sap flow, root-shoot signaling) variables obscure the identification of causal mechanisms from field experiments. Models of stomatal control fitted to field data therefore suffer from ambiguous parameter identification, with multiple acceptable (i.e., nearly optimal) model structures emphasizing different moisture status indicators and different processes. In an effort to minimize these correlations and improve parameter and process identification, we conducted an irrigation experiment on red maples (Acer rubrum L.) at Harvard Forest (summers of 2005 and 2006). Control and irrigated trees experienced similar radiative and boundary layer forcings, but different soil moisture status, and thus presumably different diurnal cycles of internal leaf water potential. Measured soil moisture and atmospheric forcing were used to drive a transient tree hydraulic model that incorporated a Jarvis-type leaf conductance in a Penman–Monteith framework with a Cowan-type (resistance and capacitance) tree hydraulic representation. The leaf conductance model included dependence on both leaf matric potential, Ψ_L (so-called feedback control) and on vapor pressure deficit, D (so-called feedforward control). Model parameters were estimated by minimizing the error between predicted and measured sap flow. The whole-tree irrigation treatment had the effect of elevating measured transpiration during summer dry-downs, demonstrating the limiting effect that subsurface resistance may have on transpiration during these times of moisture stress. From the best fitted model, we infer that during dry downs, moisture stress manifests itself in an increase of soil resistance with a resulting decrease in Ψ_L, leading to both feedforward and feedback controls in the control trees, but only feedforward control for the irrigated set. Increases in the sum-of-squares error when individual model components were disabled allow us to reject the following three null hypotheses: (1) the f(D) stress is statistically insignificant (p = 0.01); (2) the f(Ψ_L) stress is statistically insignificant (p = 0.07); and (3) plant storage capacitance is independent of moisture status (p = 0.07).     

Interacting Effects of Phenotypic Plasticity and Evolution on Population Persistence in a Changing Climate

Abstract: Climate change affects individual organisms by altering development, physiology, behavior, and fitness, and populations by altering genetic and phenotypic composition, vital rates, and dynamics. We sought to clarify how selection, phenotypic plasticity, and demography are linked in the context of climate change. On the basis of theory and results of recent empirical studies of plants and animals, we believe the ecological and evolutionary issues relevant to population persistence as climate changes are the rate, type, magnitude, and spatial pattern of climate‐induced abiotic and biotic change; generation time and life history of the organism; extent and type of phenotypic plasticity; amount and distribution of adaptive genetic variation across space and time; dispersal potential; and size and connectivity of subpopulations. An understanding of limits to plasticity and evolutionary potential across traits, populations, and species and feedbacks between adaptive and demographic responses is lacking. Integrated knowledge of coupled ecological and evolutionary mechanisms will increase understanding of the resilience and probabilities of persistence of populations and species.     

Assessing spatial uncertainty of the Portuguese fire risk through direct sequential simulation

Forest fires have a significant economic, social, and environmental impact in Portugal. For that its fire risk was assessed through Bayes Formalism, where the main component of the risk of fire was assessed by the conditional probability of fire I(u,t) given a class of the daily severity rating (DSR) for a specific period of time—P[I(u,t)|R(u,t)]. The evaluation of this a posterior probability, P[I(u,t)|R(u,t)], was based on the update of marginal local probability of fire in each chosen region u (Durão, 2006).DSR values were used to calculate fire's risk, taking into account historical data, I(s,t), in a given region s, and also to define DSR's local thresholds in order to have P [I(u,t)|R(u,t)] ≥ 0.65.In this paper we characterize these posterior probabilities using direct sequential simulation models (DSS models) to obtain the spatial distribution of these probabilities over the entire Portugal, in order to assess the risk of fire and associated spatial uncertainty. Local probability density functions (pdfs) and spatial uncertainty are evaluated by a set of equiprobable simulated images of these posterior probabilities.Results are presented and discussed for the Portuguese fire seasons of the 2-year period, 2003-2004. The conditional probabilities reproduced reasonably well what was officially published for the studied fire seasons. We expect that a better understanding of both spatial and temporal patterns of fire in Portugal together with uncertainty measures constitutes an important tool for managers, helping to improve the effectiveness of fire prevention, detection and fire fighting resources allocation in critical social and environmental areas.     

Neural network modelling for the analysis of forcings/temperatures relationships at different scales in the climate system

A fully non-linear analysis of forcing influences on temperatures is performed in the climate system by means of neural network modelling. Two case studies are investigated, in order to establish the main factors that drove the temperature behaviour at both global and regional scales in the last 140 years. In particular, our neural network model shows the ability to catch non-linear relationships among these variables and to reconstruct temperature records with a high degree of accuracy. In this framework, we clearly show the need of including anthropogenic inputs for explaining the temperature behaviour at global scale and recognise the role of El Niño southern oscillation for catching the inter-annual variability of temperature data. Furthermore, we analyse the relative influence of global forcing and a regional circulation pattern in determining the winter temperatures in Central England, showing that the North Atlantic oscillation represents the driven element in this case study. Our modelling activity and results can be very useful for simple assessments of relationships in the complex climate system and for identifying the fundamental elements leading to a successful downscaling of atmosphere–ocean general circulation models.     

Modelling the response of tree growth to temperature and CO2 elevation as related to the fertility and current temperature sum of a site

A methodology for simulating climate change impacts on tree growth was introduced into a statistical growth and yield model in relation to variations in site fertility and location implemented with current temperature sum. This was based on a procedure in which the relative enhancement in stem volume growth was calculated from short-term runs of a physiological simulation model for Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.), Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) and silver birch (Betula pendula Roth.) stands. These simulations were made for a set of stands with species-specific variations in stand characteristics, location and fertility type first in current climatic conditions and then in different combinations of CO₂ and temperature elevations. Based on these simulations, the relative enhancement of volume growth induced by the climate change (relative scenario effect, RSEv) was calculated and modelled in relation to: (i) CO₂ and temperature elevation, stand density and the competition status of the tree in its stand, and (ii) variations in site fertility type and current temperature sum of a stand. Finally, these transfer functions for RSEv were applied to adapt the stem volume growth in the statistical growth and yield model to reflect the response to climate change.     

Importance of background values in assessing the impact of heavy metals in river ecosystems: case study of Tisza River,Serbia

The main objective of this paper is to evaluate how a choice of different background values may affect assessing the anthropogenic heavy metal pollution in sediments from Tisza River (Serbia). The second objective of this paper is to underline significance of using geochemical background values when establishing quality criteria for sediment. Enrichment factor (EF), geoaccumulation index (I _geo), pollution load index (PLI), and potential ecological risk index (PERI) were calculated using different background values. Three geochemical (average metal concentrations in continental crust, average metal concentrations in shale, and average metal concentrations in non-contaminated core sediment samples) and two statistical methods (delineation method and principal component analyses) were used for calculating background values. It can be concluded that obtained information of pollution status can be more dependent on the use of background values than the index/factor chosen. The best option to assess the potential river sediment contamination is to compare obtained concentrations of analyzed elements with concentrations of mineralogically and texturally comparable, uncontaminated core sediment samples. Geochemical background values should be taken into account when establishing quality criteria for soils, sediments, and waters. Due to complexity of the local lithology, it is recommended that environmental monitoring and assessment include selection of an appropriate background values to gain understanding of the geochemistry and potential source of pollution in a given environment.     

Epiphytische Flechten im Wandel von Immissionen und Klima • Ergebnisse einer Vergleichskartierung 1989/2007 in Nordwestdeutschland

Epiphytic lichens as indicators for changes in air pollution and climate. Results of a comparative survey 1989/2007 in north-west Germany Background, aim, and scope Lichens growing on tree bark (epiphytic lichens) respond very sensitively to environmental effects such as chemical substances and air temperature. Therefore, they are used as biomonitors for atmospheric pollution in environmental assessments. Based on a survey of epiphytic lichens in 1989, a repetition was performed in an intensively-used agricultural area of north-west Germany in 2007. The objective of this study was to assess possible changes in air pollution and climate. Materials and methods The study is based on a comparative inventory of epiphytic lichens, growing on 335 trees at 45 monitoring sites. A simplified half quantitative survey technique of the first survey was used. Results Indeed, major changes to the epiphytic lichen flora were found. Overall, nearly all monitoring points showed an increase in the level of lichen species. A sharp decrease in acidophileous species and a sharp increase in basidophileous and nitrophileous species were detected. In addition, an increase in thermophileous species which are mainly inhabitants of southern European countries was observed, combined with decreases in boreo-montanic species. Discussion These trends correspond with supra-regional observations. They are primarily attributed to changes in air pollution involving a decrease in SO₂ and an increase in NH₃ concentrations. Clear effects from climate change are evident as well. Conclusions Changes to epiphytic lichens over a 18-year period could be demonstrated using a relatively low-cost investigation. They are relevant for assessing the changing environmental situation, which is of great importance for other organism groups and ecosystems. Recommendations and perspectives Using standardized techniques epiphytic lichens are suitable bioindicators for obtaining different types of information about the air pollution in urban areas and in intensively-used agricultural regions. Furthermore they are obviously good indicators of temperature changes in their environment. More research is needed about the suitability of epiphytic lichens for a biomonitoring of climate changes.     

Sanitary felling of Norway spruce due to spruce bark beetles in Slovenia: A model and projections for various climate change scenarios

A model is presented to predict sanitary felling of Norway spruce (Picea abies) due to spruce bark beetles (Ips typographus, Pityogenes chalcographus) in Slovenia according to different climate change scenarios. The model incorporates 21 variables that are directly or indirectly related to the dependent variable, and that can be arranged into five groups: climate, forest, landscape, topography, and soil. The soil properties are represented by 8 variables, 4 variables define the topography, 4 describe the climate, 4 define the landscape, and one additional variable provides the quantity of Norway spruce present in the model cell. The model was developed using the M5′ model tree. The basic spatial unit of the model is 1 km², and the time resolution is 1 year. The model evaluation was performed by three different measures: (1) the correlation coefficient (51.9%), (2) the Theil's inequality coefficient (0.49) and (3) the modelling efficiency (0.32). Validation of the model was carried out by 10-fold cross-validation. The model tree consists of 28 linear models, and model was calculated for three different climate change scenarios extending over a period until 2100, in 10-year intervals. The model is valid for the entire area of Slovenia; however, climate change projections were made only for the Maribor region (596 km²). The model assumes that relationships among the incorporated factors will remain unchanged under climate change, and the influence of humans was not taken into account. The structure of the model reveals the great importance of landscape variables, which proved to be positively correlated with the dependent variable. Variables that describe the water regime in the model cell were also highly correlated with the dependent variable, with evapotranspiration and parent material being of particular importance. The results of the model support the hypothesis that bark beetles do greater damage to Norway spruce artificially planted out of its native range in Slovenia, i.e., lowlands and soils rich in N, P, and K. The model calculation for climate change scenarios in the Maribor region shows an increase in sanitary felling of Norway spruce due to spruce bark beetles, for all scenarios. The model provides a path towards better understanding of the complex ecological interactions involved in bark beetle outbreaks. Potential application of the results in forest management and planning is discussed.     

Effects of changing climate on water and nitrogen availability with implications on the productivity of Norway spruce stands in Southern Finland

An integrated process-based model was used to study how the changing climate affects the availability of water and nitrogen, and consequently the dynamics of productivity of Norway spruce (Picea abies) on sites with different initial soil water conditions in southern Finland over a 100-year period. The sensitivity of the total stem volume growth in relation to short-term availability of water and nitrogen was also analyzed. We found that a high proportion (about 88–92%) of the total precipitation was lost in total evapotranspiration (incl. canopy evaporation (E_c), transpiration (E_t) and ground surface evaporation (E_g)), under both current and changing climate. Furthermore, under the changing climate the cumulative amount of E_c and E_g were significantly higher, while E_t was largely lower than under the current climate. Additionally, the elevated temperature and increased expansion of needle area index (L) enhanced E_c. Under the changing climate, the increasing soil water deficit (W_d) reduced the canopy stomatal conductance (g_cs), the E_t, humus yield (H, available nitrogen source) and nitrogen uptake (N_up) of the trees. During the latter phases of the simulation period, the canopy net photosynthesis (P_nc) was lower due to the reduced N_up and soil water availability. This also reduced the total stem volume production (V_s) on the site with the lower initial soil moisture content. The growth was slightly more sensitive to the change in precipitation than to the change in nitrogen content of the needles, when the elevated temperature was assumed. According to our findings, drought stress episodes may become more frequent under the changing climate. Thus, adaptive management strategies should be developed to sustain the productivity of Norway spruce in these conditions, and thus, to mitigate the adverse impacts of climate change.     

Response of tree growth to a changing climate in boreal central Canada: A comparison of empirical,process-based,and hybrid modelling approaches

The impact of 2 × CO₂ driven climate change on radial growth of boreal tree species Pinus banksiana Lamb., Populus tremuloides Michx. and Picea mariana (Mill.) BSP growing in the Duck Mountain Provincial Forest of Manitoba (DMPF), Canada, is simulated using empirical and process-based model approaches. First, empirical relationships between growth and climate are developed. Stepwise multiple-regression models are conducted between tree-ring growth increments (TRGI) and monthly drought, precipitation and temperature series. Predictive skills are tested using a calibration–verification scheme. The established relationships are then transferred to climates driven by 1× and 2 × CO₂ scenarios using outputs from the Canadian second-generation coupled global climate model. Second, empirical results are contrasted with process-based projections of net primary productivity allocated to stem development (NPP_s). At the finest scale, a leaf-level model of photosynthesis is used to simulate canopy properties per species and their interaction with the variability in radiation, temperature and vapour pressure deficit. Then, a top-down plot-level model of forest productivity is used to simulate landscape-level productivity by capturing the between-stand variability in forest cover. Results show that the predicted TRGI from the empirical models account for up to 56.3% of the variance in the observed TRGI over the period 1912–1999. Under a 2 × CO₂ scenario, the predicted impact of climate change is a radial growth decline for all three species under study. However, projections obtained from the process-based model suggest that an increasing growing season length in a changing climate could counteract and potentially overwhelm the negative influence of increased drought stress. The divergence between TRGI and NPP_s simulations likely resulted, among others, from assumptions about soil water holding capacity and from calibration of variables affecting gross primary productivity. An attempt was therefore made to bridge the gap between the two modelling approaches by using physiological variables as TRGI predictors. Results obtained in this manner are similar to those obtained using climate variables, and suggest that the positive effect of increasing growing season length would be counteracted by increasing summer temperatures. Notwithstanding uncertainties in these simulations (CO₂ fertilization effect, feedback from disturbance regimes, phenology of species, and uncertainties in future CO₂ emissions), a decrease in forest productivity with climate change should be considered as a plausible scenario in sustainable forest management planning of the DMPF.     

Modelling the impact of thermal adaptation of soil microorganisms and crop system on the dynamics of organic matter in a tropical soil under a climate change scenario

No consensus currently exists about how climate change should affect the status of soil organic matter (SOM) in the tropics. In this study, we analyse the impact of climate change on the underlying mechanisms controlling SOM dynamics in a ferralsol under two contrasting tropical crops: maize (C4 plant) and banana (C3 plant). We model the effect of microbial thermal adaptation on carbon (C) mineralisation at the crop system scale and introduce it in the model STICS, which was previously calibrated for the soil-crop systems tested in this study. Microbial thermal adaptation modelling is based on a reported theory for thermal acclimation of plant and soil respiration. The climate is simulated from 1950 to 2099 for the tropical humid conditions of Guadeloupe (French Antilles), using the ARPEGE model and the IPCC emission scenario A1B. The model predicts increases of 3.4 °C for air temperature and 1100 mm yr⁻¹ for rainfall as a response to an increase of 375 ppm for atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration in the 2090-2099 decade compared with the 1950-1959 decade. The results of the STICS model indicate that the crop affects the response of SOM to climate change by controlling the change in several variables involved in C dynamics: C input, soil temperature and soil moisture. SOM content varies little until 2020, and then it decreases faster for maize than for banana. The decrease is weakened under the hypothesis of thermal adaptation, and this effect is greater for maize (−180 kg C ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ without adaptation and −140 kg C ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ with adaptation) than for banana (−60 kg C ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ and −40 kg C ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹, respectively). The greater SOM loss in maize is mainly due to the negative effect of warming on maize growth decreasing C input from residues. Climate change has a small effect on banana growth, and SOM loss is linked to its effect on C mineralisation. For both crops, annual C mineralisation increases until 2040, and then it decreases continuously. Thermal adaptation reduces the initial increase in mineralisation, but its effect is lower on the final decrease, which is mainly controlled by substrate limitation. No stabilisation in SOM status is attained at the end of the analysed period because C mineralisation is always greater than C input. Model predictions indicate that microbial thermal adaptation modifies, but does not fundamentally change the temporal pattern of SOM dynamics. The vegetation type (C3 or C4) plays a major role in SOM dynamics in this tropical soil because of the different impact of climate change on crop growth and then on C inputs.     

The physiological and molecular responses of larvae from the reef-building coral Pocillopora damicornis exposed to near-future increases in temperature and pCO2

Given the threats of greenhouse gas emissions and a changing climate to marine ecosystems, there is an urgent need to better understand the response of not only adult corals, which are particularly sensitive to environmental changes, but also their larvae, whose mechanisms of acclimation to both temperature increases and ocean acidification are not well understood. Brooded larvae from the reef coral Pocillopora damicornis collected from Nanwan Bay, Southern Taiwan, were exposed to ambient or elevated temperature (25 or 29 °C) and pCO₂ (415 or 635 μatm) in a factorial experiment for 9 days, and a variety of physiological and molecular parameters were measured. Respiration and rubisco protein expression decreased in larvae exposed to elevated temperature, while those incubated at high pCO₂ were larger in size. Collectively, these findings highlight the complex metabolic and molecular responses of this life history stage and the need to integrate our understanding across multiple levels of biological organization. Our results also suggest that for this pocilloporid larval life stage, the impacts of elevated temperature are likely a greater threat under near-future predictions for climate change than ocean acidification.     

Analysis of annual fluctuations of C. nodosa in the Venice lagoon: Modeling approach

A simple simulation model was developed to describe the growth trends of Cymodocea nodosa (Ucria) Ascherson based on data sets from the Venice lagoon. The model reproduces the seasonal fluctuations in the above and belowground biomass and in shoot density. The modeling results are in good agreement with data on net production, growth rates and chemical–physical parameters of water. It was assumed that light and temperature are the most important factors controlling C. nodosa development, and that the growth was not limited by nutrient availability. The aim was to simulate biomass production as a function of external forcing variables (light, water temperature) and internal control (plant density). A series of simulation experiments were performed with the basic model showing that among the most important phenomena affecting C. nodosa growth are: (1) inhibition of production and recruitment of new shoots by high temperature and (2) light attenuation due to seasonal fluctuation.     

The theoretical basis for estimating phytoplankton production and specific growth rate from chlorophyll, light and temperature data

Phytoplankton maximum specific growth rate, μ_max, and maximum photosynthetic quantum yield, Φ_max, can be related mathematically via the photosynthetic light curve, P(I). A model is presented in which maximum quantum yield defines the initial slope of the light curve and is assumed to be a known constant, while maximum specific growth rate defines the light-saturated region of the curve and is assumed to be a known function of temperature. The effect of introducing μ_max(T) into P(I, Φ_max) is to replace the unknown, temperature-dependent light saturation parameter with a term involving the ratio μ_max/Φ_max. The advantage of writing P(I) in terms of both μ_max and Φ_max is that those parameters are particularly well documented in the literature. Consequently, estimates of nutrient-unlimited phytoplankton growth and production rates can be based solely on the constants μ_max, Φ_max and k_c (light absorption per unit of chlorophyll) and the free variables light, temperature and chlorophyll concentration. Rate estimates appear to be accurate to within a factor of two for an extremely wide range of conditions.One particularly significant result of introducing μ_max into P(I, Φ_max) is that the carbon : chlorophyll ration, θ, appears explicitly. It is possible to derive an expression for optimum θ based on the assumption that adaptive changes in carbon/chlorophyll occur so as to maximize the specific growth rate for given conditions of light and temperature. Laboratory and field data are compiled from the literature to test the formulae presented here.