Ecological Correlates and Conservation Implications of Overestimating Species Geographic Ranges

Abstract:  Species range maps based on extents of occurrence (EOO maps) have become the basis for many analyses in broad-scale ecology and conservation. Nevertheless, EOO maps are usually highly interpolated and overestimate small-scale occurrence, which may bias research outcomes. We evaluated geographical range overestimation and its potential ecological causes for 1158 bird species by quantifying EOO map occurrence across 4040 well-studied survey locations in Australia, North America, and southern Africa at the scale of 80–742 km². Most species occurred in only 40–70% of the range indicated by their EOO maps. The observed proportional range overestimation affected the range-size frequency distribution, indicating that species are more range-restricted than suggested by EOO maps. The EOO maps most strongly overestimated the distribution of narrow-ranging species and ecological specialists with narrow diet and habitat breadth. These relationships support basic ecological predictions about the relationship between niche breadth and the fine-scale occurrence of species. Consequently, at-risk species were subject to particularly high proportional range overestimation, on average 62% compared with 37% of nonthreatened species. These trends affect broad-scale ecological analyses and species conservation assessments, which will benefit from a careful consideration of potential biases introduced by range overestimation.     

Breeding Distributions of North American Bird Species Moving North as a Result of Climate Change

Abstract:  Geographic changes in species distributions toward traditionally cooler climes is one hypothesized indicator of recent global climate change. We examined distribution data on 56 bird species. If global warming is affecting species distributions across the temperate northern hemisphere, these data should show the same northward range expansions of birds that have been reported for Great Britain. Because a northward shift of distributions might be due to multidirectional range expansions for multiple species, we also examined the possibility that birds with northern distributions may be expanding their ranges southward. There was no southward expansion of birds with a northern distribution, indicating that there is no evidence of overall range expansion of insectivorous and granivorous birds in North America. As predicted, the northern limit of birds with a southern distribution showed a significant shift northward (2.35 km/year). This northward shift is similar to that observed in previous work conducted in Great Britain: the widespread nature of this shift in species distributions over two distinct geographical regions and its coincidence with a period of global warming suggests a connection with global climate change.     

Use of Basic Biological Information for Rapid Prediction of the Response of Species to Habitat Loss

Abstract:  Much research has focused on identifying traits that can act as useful indicators of how habitat loss affects the extinction risk of species, and the results are mixed. We developed 2 simple, rapid-assessment models of the susceptibility of species to habitat loss. We based both on an index of range size, but one also incorporated an index of body mass and the other an index combining habitat and dietary specialization. We applied the models to samples of birds (Accipitridae and Bucerotidae) and to the lemurs of Madagascar and compared the models' classifications of risk with the IUCN's global threat status of each species. The model derived from ecological attributes was much more robust than the one derived from body mass. Ecological attributes identified threatened birds and lemurs with an average of 80% accuracy and endangered and critically endangered species with 100% accuracy and identified some species not currently listed as threatened that almost certainly warrant conservation consideration. Appropriate analysis of even fairly crude biological information can help raise early-warning flags to the relative susceptibilities of species to habitat loss and thus provide a useful and rapid technique for highlighting potential species-level conservation issues. Advantages of this approach to classifying risk include flexibility in the specialization parameters used as well as its applicability at a range of spatial scales.     

Interactions between environment, species traits, and human uses describe patterns of plant invasions

Although invasive alien species (IAS) are a major threat to biodiversity, human health, and economy, our understanding of the factors controlling their distribution and abundance is limited. Here, we determine how environmental factors, land use, life-history traits of the invaders, residence time, origin, and human usage interact to shape the spatial pattern of invasive alien plant species in South Africa. Relationships between the environmental factors and the extrinsic and intrinsic attributes of species were investigated using RLQ analysis, a multivariate method for relating a species-attribute table to an environmental table by way of a species presence/absence table. We then clustered species according to their position on the RLQ axes, and tested these groups for phylogenetic independence. The first three axes of the RLQ explained 99% of the variation and were strongly related to the species attributes. The clustering showed that, after accounting for environmental factors, the spatial pattern of IAS in South Africa was driven by human uses, life forms, and reproductive traits. The seven clusters of species strongly reflected geographical distribution, but also intrinsic species attributes and patterns of human use. Two of the clusters, centered on the genera Acacia and Opuntia, were phylogenetically non-independent. The remaining clusters comprised species of diverse taxonomic affinities, but sharing traits facilitating invasion in particular habitats. This information is useful for assessing the extent to which the potential spread of recent introductions can be predicted by considering the interaction of their biological attributes, region of origin, and human use.     

Amphibian Breeding Distribution in an Urbanized Landscape

Abstract:  Amphibians commonly use wetlands for breeding habitat, and given the concern about their ongoing global declines, the effects of urbanization on the breeding distribution of amphibians need to be quantified. Thus, we conducted a survey of the larval amphibian community in central Pennsylvania (U.S.A.) wetlands along an urbanization gradient. Wetlands in urban areas had less surrounding forest and wetlands and greater road density than rural wetlands. Urbanization was also associated with increases in hydroperiod (i.e., wetland permanency) and the presence of fish predators. Moreover, urban wetlands had lower larval amphibian species richness than rural wetlands. This decrease in richness was attributable to a decrease in occurrence of wood frogs ( Rana sylvatica ) and ambystomatid salamanders ( Ambystoma maculatum and A. jeffersonianum ) in urban sites. Wood frogs and ambystomatid salamanders were positively associated with the amount of forest surrounding sites and negatively associated with hydroperiod. As a result, we hypothesize that these species are sensitive to the effects of urban development. The remaining species in this study appear fairly resilient to the effects of urbanization. These data demonstrate the importance of quantifying both local and landscape attributes when describing the factors that limit the breeding distribution of amphibians. We recommend that to preserve amphibian biodiversity in urbanized landscapes, it is best to focus on regional diversity, which protects a variety of sites that encompass various hydroperiods, have adequate buffer habitat, and are connected by dispersal routes.     

Positives and pathologies of natural resource management on private land‐conservation areas

In managed natural resource systems, such as fisheries and rangelands, there is a recognized trade‐off between managing for short‐term benefits and managing for longer term resilience. Management actions that stabilize ecological attributes or processes can improve productivity in the supply of ecosystem goods and services in the short term but erode system resilience at longer time scales. For example, fire suppression in rangelands can increase grass biomass initially but ultimately result in an undesirable, shrub‐dominated system. Analyses of this phenomenon have focused largely on how management actions influence slow‐changing biophysical system attributes (such as vegetation composition). Data on the frequency of management actions that reduce natural ecological variation on 66 private land‐conservation areas (PLCAs) in South Africa were used to investigate how management actions are influenced by manager decision‐making approaches, a largely ignored part of the problem. The pathology of natural resource management was evident on some PLCAs: increased focus on revenue‐generation in decision making resulted in an increased frequency of actions to stabilize short‐term variation in large mammal populations, which led to increased revenues from ecotourism or hunting. On many PLCAs, these management actions corresponded with a reduced focus on ecological monitoring and an increase in overstocking of game (i.e., ungulate species) and stocking of extralimitals (i.e., game species outside their historical range). Positives in natural resource management also existed. Some managers monitored slower changing ecological attributes, which resulted in less‐intensive management, fewer extralimital species, and lower stocking rates. Our unique, empirical investigation of monitoring‐management relationships illustrates that management decisions informed by revenue monitoring versus ecological monitoring can have opposing consequences for natural resource productivity and sustainability. Promoting management actions that maintain resilience in natural resource systems therefore requires cognizance of why managers act the way they do and how these actions can gradually shift managers toward unsustainable strategies.     

Declines in migrant shorebird populations from a winter‐quarter perspective

Many long‐distance migrating shorebird (i.e., sandpipers, plovers, flamingos, oystercatchers) populations are declining. Although regular shorebird monitoring programs exist worldwide, most estimates of shorebird population trends and sizes are poor or nonexistent. We built a state‐space model to estimate shorebird population trends. Compared with more commonly used methods of trend estimation, state‐space models are more mechanistic, allow for the separation of observation and state process, and can easily accommodate multivariate time series and nonlinear trends. We fitted the model to count data collected from 1990 to 2013 on 18 common shorebirds at the 2 largest coastal wetlands in southern Africa, Sandwich Harbour (a relatively pristine bay) and Walvis Bay (an international harbor), Namibia. Four of the 12 long‐distance migrant species declined since 1990: Ruddy Turnstone (Arenaria interpres), Little Stint (Calidris minuta), Common Ringed Plover (Charadrius hiaticula), and Red Knot (Calidris canutus). Populations of resident species and short‐distance migrants increased or were stable. Similar patterns at a key South African wetland suggest that shorebird populations migrating to southern Africa are declining in line with the global decline, but local conditions in southern Africa's largest wetlands are not contributing to these declines. State‐space models provide estimates of population levels and trends and could be used widely to improve the current state of water bird estimates.     

Effects of ocean temperature on the southern range limits of two understory kelps, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Pterygophora californica</Emphasis> and <Emphasis Type="Italic">Eisenia arborea</Emphasis>, at multiple life-stages

Environmental factors have long been shown to influence species distributions, with range limits often resulting from environmental stressors exceeding organism tolerances. However, these abiotic factors may differentially affect species with multiple life-history stages. Between September 2004 and January 2006, the roles of temperature and nutrient availability in explaining the southern distributions of two understory kelps, Pterygophora californica and Eisenia arborea (Phaeophyceae, Laminariales), were investigated along the coast of California, USA and the Baja California Peninsula, Mexico, by limiting either: (a) tissue nitrogen uptake and storage by adult sporophytes during periods of elevated temperature, and/or (b) production of embryonic sporophytes by microscopic gametophytes. Results suggest that while adult sporophytes of both species are tolerant of high temperatures and low nutrients, reproduction by their microscopic stages is not. Specifically, while E. arborea produced embryonic sporophytes at both 12 and 18°C, temperatures commonly observed throughout the southern portion of its range, P. californica produced sporophytes at 12 but not at 18°C. As a result, it appears that the southern distribution of P. californica, which ends in northern Baja California, Mexico, may be limited by temperature acting on its microscopic stages. In contrast, the ability of E. arborea’s microscopic and adult stages to tolerate elevated temperatures allows it to persist in the warmer southern waters of Baja California, as well as to the north along the California coast where both species co-occur.     

Habitat Fragmentation and Species Loss across Three Interacting Trophic Levels: Effects of Life-History and Food-Web Traits

Abstract:  Not all species are likely to be equally affected by habitat fragmentation; thus, we evaluated the effects of size of forest remnants on trophically linked communities of plants, leaf-mining insects, and their parasitoids. We explored the possibility of differential vulnerability to habitat area reduction in relation to species-specific and food-web traits by comparing species–area regression slopes. Moreover, we searched for a synergistic effect of these traits and of trophic level . We collected mined leaves and recorded plant, leaf miner, and parasitoid species interactions in five 100-m² transects in 19 Chaco Serrano woodland remnants in central Argentina. Species were classified into extreme categories according to body size, natural abundance, trophic breadth, and trophic level . Species–area slopes differed between groups with extreme values of natural abundance or trophic specialization. Nevertheless, synergistic effects of life-history and food-web traits were only found for trophic level and trophic breadth: area-related species loss was highest for specialist parasitoids. It has been suggested that species position within interaction webs could determine their vulnerability to extinction. Our results provide evidence that food-web parameters, such as trophic level and trophic breadth, affect species sensitivity to habitat fragmentation .     

Incorporating geographical and evolutionary rarity into conservation prioritization

Key goals of conservation are to protect both species and the functional and genetic diversity they represent. A strictly species-based approach may underrepresent rare, threatened, or genetically distinct species and overrepresent widespread species. Although reserves are created for a number of reasons, including economic, cultural, and ecological reasons, their efficacy has been measured primarily in terms of how well species richness is protected, and it is useful to compare how well they protect other measures of diversity. We used Proteaceae species-occurrence data in the Cape Floristic Region of South Africa to illustrate differences in the spatial distribution of species and evolutionary diversity estimated from a new maximum-likelihood molecular phylogeny. We calculated species richness, phylogenetic diversity (i.e., summed phylogenetic branch lengths in a site), and a site-aggregated measure of biogeographically weighted evolutionary distinctiveness (i.e., an abundance weighted measure that captures the unique proportion of the phylogenetic tree a species represents) for sites throughout the Cape Floristic Region. Species richness and phylogenetic diversity values were highly correlated for sites in the region, but species richness was concentrated at a few sites that underrepresented the much more spatially extensive distribution of phylogenetic diversity. Biogeographically weighted evolutionary diversity produced a scheme of prioritization distinct from the other 2 metrics and highlighted southern sites as conservation priorities. In these sites, the high values of biogeographically weighted evolutionary distinctiveness were the result of a nonrandom relation between evolutionary distinctiveness and geographical rarity, where rare species also tended to have high levels of evolutionary distinctiveness. Such distinct and rare species are of particular concern, but are not captured by conservation schemes that focus on species richness or phylogenetic diversity alone.     

The influence of environmental spatial structure on the life-history traits and diversity of species in a metacommunity

Several models have been proposed to understand how so many species can coexist in ecosystems. Despite evidence showing that natural habitats are often patchy and fragmented, these models rarely take into account environmental spatial structure. In this study we investigated the influence of spatial structure in habitat and disturbance regime upon species’ traits and species’ coexistence in a metacommunity. We used a population-based model to simulate competing species in spatially explicit landscapes. The species traits we focused on were dispersal ability, competitiveness, reproductive investment and survival rate. Communities were characterized by their species richness and by the four life-history traits averaged over all the surviving species. Our results show that spatial structure and disturbance have a strong influence on the equilibrium life-history traits within a metacommunity. In the absence of disturbance, spatially structured landscapes favour species investing more in reproduction, but less in dispersal and survival. However, this influence is strongly dependent on the disturbance rate, pointing to an important interaction between spatial structure and disturbance. This interaction also plays a role in species coexistence. While spatial structure tends to reduce diversity in the absence of disturbance, the tendency is reversed when disturbance occurs. In conclusion, the spatial structure of communities is an important determinant of their diversity and characteristic traits. These traits are likely to influence important ecological properties such as resistance to invasion or response to climate change, which in turn will determine the fate of ecosystems facing the current global ecological crisis.     

Geographic range size and extinction risk assessment in nomadic species

Geographic range size is often conceptualized as a fixed attribute of a species and treated as such for the purposes of quantification of extinction risk; species occupying smaller geographic ranges are assumed to have a higher risk of extinction, all else being equal. However many species are mobile, and their movements range from relatively predictable to‐and‐fro migrations to complex irregular movements shown by nomadic species. These movements can lead to substantial temporary expansion and contraction of geographic ranges, potentially to levels which may pose an extinction risk. By linking occurrence data with environmental conditions at the time of observations of nomadic species, we modeled the dynamic distributions of 43 arid‐zone nomadic bird species across the Australian continent for each month over 11 years and calculated minimum range size and extent of fluctuation in geographic range size from these models. There was enormous variability in predicted spatial distribution over time; 10 species varied in estimated geographic range size by more than an order of magnitude, and 2 species varied by >2 orders of magnitude. During times of poor environmental conditions, several species not currently classified as globally threatened contracted their ranges to very small areas, despite their normally large geographic range size. This finding raises questions about the adequacy of conventional assessments of extinction risk based on static geographic range size (e.g., IUCN Red Listing). Climate change is predicted to affect the pattern of resource fluctuations across much of the southern hemisphere, where nomadism is the dominant form of animal movement, so it is critical we begin to understand the consequences of this for accurate threat assessment of nomadic species. Our approach provides a tool for discovering spatial dynamics in highly mobile species and can be used to unlock valuable information for improved extinction risk assessment and conservation planning.     

Using Genetic Profiles of African Forest Elephants to Infer Population Structure,Movements, and Habitat Use in a Conservation and Development Landscape in Gabon

Conservation of wide‐ranging species, such as the African forest elephant (Loxodonta cyclotis), depends on fully protected areas and multiple‐use areas (MUA) that provide habitat connectivity. In the Gamba Complex of Protected Areas in Gabon, which includes 2 national parks separated by a MUA containing energy and forestry concessions, we studied forest elephants to evaluate the importance of the MUA to wide‐ranging species. We extracted DNA from elephant dung samples and used genetic information to identify over 500 individuals in the MUA and the parks. We then examined patterns of nuclear microsatellites and mitochondrial control‐region sequences to infer population structure, movement patterns, and habitat use by age and sex. Population structure was weak but significant, and differentiation was more pronounced during the wet season. Within the MUA, males were more strongly associated with open habitats, such as wetlands and savannas, than females during the dry season. Many of the movements detected within and between seasons involved the wetlands and bordering lagoons. Our results suggest that the MUA provides year‐round habitat for some elephants and additional habitat for others whose primary range is in the parks. With the continuing loss of roadless wilderness areas in Central Africa, well‐managed MUAs will likely be important to the conservation of wide‐ranging species. Utilización de Perfiles Genéticos de Elefantes Africanos para Inferir su Estructura Poblacional, Movimientos y Uso del Hábitat en un Paisaje con Conservación y Desarrollo en Gabón Resumenfgs     

Climatic niche divergence or conservatism? Environmental niches and range limits in ecologically similar damselflies

The factors that determine species' range limits are of central interest to biologists. One particularly interesting group comprises odonates (dragonflies and damselflies), which show large differences in secondary sexual traits and respond quickly to climatic factors, but often have minor interspecific niche differences, challenging models of niche-based species coexistence. We quantified the environmental niches at two geographic scales to understand the ecological causes of northern range limits and the coexistence of two congeneric damselflies (Calopteryx splendens and C. virgo). Using environmental niche modeling, we quantified niche divergence first across the whole geographic range in Fennoscandia, and second only in the sympatric part of this range. We found evidence for interspecific divergence along the environmental axes of temperature and precipitation across the northern range in Fennoscandia, suggesting that adaptation to colder and wetter climate might have allowed C. virgo to expand farther north than C. splendens. However, in the sympatric zone in southern Fennoscandia we found only negligible and nonsignificant niche differences. Minor niche differences in sympatry lead to frequent encounters and intense interspecific sexual interactions at the local scale of populations. Nevertheless, niche differences across Fennoscandia suggest that species differences in physiological tolerances limit range expansions northward, and that current and future climate could have large effects on the distributional ranges of these and ecologically similar insects.     

Exploring relationships between conservation and poverty reduction in wetland ecosystems: lessons from 10 integrated wetland conservation and poverty reduction initiatives

It is well known that whilst wetlands deliver a wide range of services vital for human well-being, they are being rapidly degraded and lost. Losses tend to be higher where human populations are increasing most and demands for economic development are greatest. Multidisciplinary management approaches that integrate conservation and development objectives in wetlands are therefore urgently requested for by the Ramsar Convention on Wetlands. This paper describes the evaluation of 10 wetland management case studies from Asia, Africa and South America that adopted such an integrated approach. The evaluation assessed the outcomes of these integrated initiatives to identify conditions and processes for linking conservation and poverty reduction objectives in wetlands. The findings are also compared with other assessments of integrated approaches, particularly in terms of their effectiveness in optimizing conservation and poverty reduction outcomes. The results from our studies suggest an ongoing evolution of such integrated interventions, which also implies cycles of learning from past mistakes. Overall, our results highlight the significant variation between wetlands in types and quantities of services they provide and emphasize the need to view many ecological issues as social challenges for equitable solutions to both wetlands and people. The analysis further shows that the positive on-ground results owe much to the interdisciplinary problem analysis, whereby interventions can move from treating symptoms to addressing root causes. while no blueprint emerged on how to successfully integrate conservation and poverty reduction in wetlands, important lessons for future interventions were drawn.     

Modeling the Effects of Anthropogenic Habitat Change on Savanna Snake Invasions into African Rainforest

Abstract:  We used a species-distribution modeling approach, ground-based climate data sets, and newly available remote-sensing data on vegetation from the MODIS and Quick Scatterometer sensors to investigate the combined effects of human-caused habitat alterations and climate on potential invasions of rainforest by 3 savanna snake species in Cameroon, Central Africa: the night adder (Causus maculatus) , olympic lined snake (Dromophis lineatus) , and African house snake (Lamprophis fuliginosus) . Models with contemporary climate variables and localities from native savanna habitats showed that the current climate in undisturbed rainforest was unsuitable for any of the snake species due to high precipitation. Limited availability of thermally suitable nest sites and mismatches between important life-history events and prey availability are a likely explanation for the predicted exclusion from undisturbed rainforest. Models with only MODIS-derived vegetation variables and savanna localities predicted invasion in disturbed areas within the rainforest zone, which suggests that human removal of forest cover creates suitable microhabitats that facilitate invasions into rainforest. Models with a combination of contemporary climate, MODIS- and Quick Scatterometer-derived vegetation variables, and forest and savanna localities predicted extensive invasion into rainforest caused by rainforest loss. In contrast, a projection of the present-day species-climate envelope on future climate suggested a reduction in invasion potential within the rainforest zone as a consequence of predicted increases in precipitation. These results emphasize that the combined responses of deforestation and climate change will likely be complex in tropical rainforest systems.     

The optimal balance of defence investment strategies in clonal colonies of social aphids

Social aphid species provide ideal systems to study the ecological influences upon the evolution of sociality because they consist of discrete colonies which are entirely clonal and therefore devoid of any genetic conflict over altruistic behaviour. Although selfishness can be discounted as an obstacle preventing the evolution of altruistic defenders, the vast majority of aphid species are not social. To examine the key life-history and ecological characteristics that interact to facilitate social evolution, we designed a matrix population model based on the natural history of one of the unique aphid species with soldiers, Pemphigus spyrothecae. In addressing the life-history factors, our special interest was to examine the optimal trade-off faced by colonies that can increase their defence investment by producing defenders at birth and/or increasing the duration of the defensive stage. The level and period of exposure to predation and a declining colony birth rate were key factors that selected for social defence. The model demonstrated that, in species which have soldiers that can facultatively develop to make a direct contribution to colony fitness, temporal extension of the soldier stage is a key mechanism of increasing defence investment. This extension is particularly favoured when predation is high and the lifetime of a colony is long. An increase in production of defenders at birth was favoured when mortality due to predation was strongly biased towards defenders. The model suggests that, in species which have the defensive flexibility of choosing whether soldiers remain as such, there is little requirement for flexibility in the morph allocations made at birth. All these predictions were found to be fully compatible with the available empirical data.     

Challenges and Opportunities in Implementing Managed Relocation for Conservation of Freshwater Species

Abstract: The rapidity of climate change is predicted to exceed the ability of many species to adapt or to disperse to more climatically favorable surroundings. Conservation of these species may require managed relocation (also called assisted migration or assisted colonization) of individuals to locations where the probability of their future persistence may be higher. The history of non‐native species throughout the world suggests managed relocation may not be applicable universally. Given the constrained existence of freshwater organisms within highly dendritic networks containing isolated ponds, lakes, and rivers, managed relocation may represent a useful conservation strategy. Yet, these same distinctive properties of freshwater ecosystems may increase the probability of unintended ecological consequences. We explored whether managed relocation is an ecologically sound conservation strategy for freshwater systems and provided guidelines for identifying candidates and localities for managed relocation. A comparison of ecological and life‐history traits of freshwater animals associated with high probabilities of extirpation and invasion suggests that it is possible to select species for managed relocation to minimize the likelihood of unintended effects to recipient ecosystems. We recommend that translocations occur within the species’ historical range and optimally within the same major river basin and that lacustrine and riverine species be translocated to physically isolated seepage lakes and upstream of natural or artificial barriers, respectively, to lower the risk of secondary spread across the landscape. We provide five core recommendations to enhance the scientific basis of guidelines for managed relocation in freshwater environments: adopt the term managed translocation to reflect the fact that individuals will not always be reintroduced within their historical native range; examine the trade‐off between facilitation of individual movement and the probability of range expansion of non‐native species; determine which species and locations might be immediately considered for managed translocation; adopt a hypothetico‐deductive framework by conducting experimental trials to introduce species of conservation concern into new areas within their historical range; build on previous research associated with species reintroductions through communication and synthesis of case studies.     

Mapping epistemic cultures and learning potential of participants in citizen science projects

The ever‐widening scope and range of global change and interconnected systemic risks arising from people–environment relationships (social‐ecological risks) appears to be increasing concern among, and involvement of, citizens in an increasingly diversified number of citizen science projects responding to these risks. We examined the relationship between epistemic cultures in citizen science projects and learning potential related to matters of concern. We then developed a typology of purposes and a citizen science epistemic‐cultures heuristic and mapped 56 projects in southern Africa using this framework. The purpose typology represents the range of knowledge‐production purposes, ranging from laboratory science to social learning, whereas the epistemic‐cultures typology is a relational representation of scientist and citizen participation and their approach to knowledge production. Results showed an iterative relationship between matters of fact and matters of concern across the projects; the nexus of citizens’ engagement in knowledge‐production activities varied. The knowledge‐production purposes informed and shaped the epistemic cultures of all the sampled citizen science projects, which in turn influenced the potential for learning within each project. Through a historical review of 3 phases in a long‐term river health‐monitoring project, we found that it is possible to evolve the learning curve of citizen science projects. This evolution involved the development of scientific water monitoring tools, the parallel development of pedagogic practices supporting monitoring activities, and situated engagement around matters of concern within social activism leading to learning‐led change. We conclude that such evolutionary processes serve to increase potential for learning and are necessary if citizen science is to contribute to wider restructuring of the epistemic culture of science under conditions of expanding social‐ecological risk.     

The performance of state-of-the-art modelling techniques depends on geographical distribution of species

We explored the effects of prevalence, latitudinal range and clumping (spatial autocorrelation) of species distribution patterns on the predictive accuracy of eight state-of-the-art modelling techniques: Generalized Linear Models (GLMs), Generalized Boosting Method (GBM), Generalized Additive Models (GAMs), Classification Tree Analysis (CTA), Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS), Mixture Discriminant Analysis (MDA) and Random Forest (RF). One hundred species of Lepidoptera, selected from the Distribution Atlas of European Butterflies, and three climate variables were used to determine the bioclimatic envelope for each butterfly species. The data set consisting of 2620 grid squares 30′ × 60′ in size all over Europe was randomly split into the calibration and the evaluation data sets. The performance of different models was assessed using the area under the curve (AUC) of a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) plot. Observed differences in modelling accuracy among species were then related to the geographical attributes of the species using GAM. The modelling performance was negatively related to the latitudinal range and prevalence, whereas the effect of spatial autocorrelation on prediction accuracy depended on the modelling technique. These three geographical attributes accounted for 19–61% of the variation in the modelling accuracy. Predictive accuracy of GAM, GLM and MDA was highly influenced by the three geographical attributes, whereas RF, ANN and GBM were moderately, and MARS and CTA only slightly affected. The contrasting effects of geographical distribution of species on predictive performance of different modelling techniques represent one source of uncertainty in species spatial distribution models. This should be taken into account in biogeographical modelling studies and assessments of climate change impacts.