Revised estimates and projections of down syndrome births in the United States,and the effects of prenatal diagnosis utilization, 1970–2002

The objectives of this study were to: (1) calculate revised estimates and projections of United States annual Down syndrome (DS) births for 1970–2002, and (2) estimate the effects of amniocentesis on these baseline DS birth projections. Three models of amniocentesis utilization among 30–34 and ≧ 35-year-old women were considered. The recently revised Census Bureau birth projections, and new single year maternal age DS risk rates estimated from a 1970–1983 Ohio data set, were used. Data from all three Census Bureau projection series were analysed; series II was considered in depth since it is consistent with recent fertility levels. Assuming no use of amniocentesis, total estimated DS births dropped from about 4770 in 1970 to 4120 in 1980 (a 14 per cent decline), but are projected to a plateau of about 5100 by the year 1990 (a 24 per cent increase). DS births to women ≧ 35 would increase dramatically from about 1050 in 1980 to 1900 in 2000 (an 81 per cent increase). Assuming 1983 Ohio prenatal diagnosis ratios for women aged 30–34 (1.7 per cent) and ≧ 35 (23.4 per cent) are used nationally, an annual reduction of about 7 per cent of DS births in 1986 and 9 per cent in 2002 would result. Fifty and 70 per cent utilization among women 30–34 and 235, respectively, would reduce DS births by about 33 per cent in 1986 and 38 per cent in 2002. Therefore, if the projected increase in DS births is to be averted, utilization of prenatal diagnosis by ≧ 30-year-old women must increase substantially.     

Risk assessment of amniocentesis between 11 and 15 weeks: Comparison to later amniocentesis controls

We studied 693 consecutive early amniocenteses (prior to 15 weeks) and found a spontaneous abortion rate to 28 weeks' gestation of 1·5 per cent. A control group of women having standard amniocentesis (15–20 weeks) experienced a 0·6 per cent fetal loss in the same period. There were no other apparent differences between the two groups. Early amniocentesis results are generally available 4–6 weeks before standard amniocentesis and 1–3 weeks after chorionic villus sampling (CVS). Alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) can be accurately assayed in 11- to 15-week amniotic fluid samples but additional studies are necessary to determine the accuracy of neural tube defect (NTD) detection. Including the present study, over 5800 early amniocenteses have been reported and the results suggest that this is a relatively safe prenatal diagnostic test and an alternative to CVS and later amniocentesis.     

Prenatal diagnosis in advanced maternal age. Amniocentesis or CVS,a patient's choice or lack of information?

Ninety-six women of advanced maternal age were interviewed about the way they obtained information on prenatal diagnosis and about how the decision was made as to what procedure was to be performed (transabdominal chorionic villus sampling (TA-CVS) or amnio-centesis). In the CVS group, women visited their physician or midwife earlier in pregnancy (mean 7.1 weeks) than those in the amniocentesis group (mean 10.7 weeks). The availability of prenatal diagnosis was not mentioned during the first antenatal visit in 55 per cent of women from the amniocentesis group as opposed to 25 per cent from the TA-CVS group. Approximately 40 per cent of women eligible for prenatal diagnosis did not receive any information from the referring body prior to counselling at our centre. Only 29 per cent of women who underwent amniocentesis had actually chosen this procedure; 71 per cent were too late to undergo TA-CVS at 12 weeks. It is concluded that information to the patient must be improved in order to ensure early referral for prenatal diagnosis.     

Comparison of transabdominal and transcervical CVS and amniocentesis: Sampling success and risk

A total of 2931 women randomized to either transabdominal CVS, transceirvical CVS, or amniocentesis were studied. Unless intended or unintended abortion had occurred, they had completed up to 28 weeks of pregnancy. No significant difference was seen between total fetal loss in the transabdominal CVS group and the amniocentesis group (6.5 and 6.8 per cent, respectively, SE difference = 0.92 per cent, p = 0.01). The total fetal loss in the transcervical CVS group was 10.1 per cent. After pooling our data with data from the Canadian randomized study and the American non-randomized study, the difference in risk between trans-cervical CVS and amniocentesis was 1.8 per cent (SE difference = 0.64 per cent, p = 0.8). When the number of failed procedures and those cases evaluated as infeasible for the assigned method-for anatomical reasons-are compared, the overall sampling efficacy is poorer transcervically than transabdominally.     

Comparison of first-trimester transvaginal amniocentesis with chorionic villus sampling and mid-trimester amniocentesis

Between August 1989 and December 1991, 356 patients underwent first-trimester transvaginal amniocentesis (10–12 weeks). The same number of patients referred in the same period for mid-trimester amniocentesis (14–21 weeks) was matched also for maternal age and indication. A third group consisted of the first 356 cases in which chorionic villus sampling (CVS) was attempted. The overall success rate was 99·7 and 100 per cent for early and mid-trimester amniocentesis, respectively, and 97·2 per cent for CVS. The mean harvesting time was 12·8, 11, and 7·9 days, respectively. The percentage of patients rescheduled was 3·4 per cent in first-trimester amniocentesis, 1·7 per cent in mid-trimester amniocentesis, and 6·2 per cent in the CVS group. The early (less than 2 weeks) pregnancy loss was 1·7 and 0·6 per cent in early and mid-trimester amniocentesis, respectively, and 1·7 per cent in CVS. The total pregnancy loss was 3·2, 0·9, and 2·9 per cent, respectively. The rate of preterm birth was 6·0, 5·2 and 6·9 per cent, respectively. The results indicate that CVS has the shortest procedure-result interval, but the highest rescheduling rate. First-trimester amniocentesis has a higher procedure and laboratory success rate but, until otherwise proved, mid-trimester amniocentesis is the most efficient and safest procedure.     

Comparison of chorionic villus sampling and amniocentesis: Current status of prenatal diagnosis in Japan

Data were tabulated and compared for cases involving prenatal diagnostic procedures performed in the 8 years between January 1985 and December 1992. Of a total of 2781 pregnancies, 2546 cases (91·5 per cent) were diagnosed by amniocentesis, and 235 (8·5 per cent) by chorionic villus sampling (CVS). These findings reflect the fact that amniocentesis has taken deep root as the prenatal diagnostic procedure widely acknowledged by society, whereas even the existence of CVS has yet to be generally recognized. Analysis of our clinical and laboratory results and complication rates, however, suggests that CVS is a safe and accurate alternative to amniocentesis which should and can be positively presented to all patients who are candidates for prenatal diagnosis.     

The efficacy of maternal age screening for Down's syndrome in Wessex

The uptake of amniocentesis in Wessex for the period 1986–1988 was 36 per cent (2873 of 8004 births), a proportion that has not altered significantly since 1984. There is a large difference in uptake between women in the lower risk age group, 35–36 years, and those in the higher risk group, 37 + years, and very considerable differences in uptake among different districts. The prenatal detection over the 3-year study period for women aged 35 or more, after correction for spontaneous loss of Down's syndrome fetuses between prenatal detection and birth, is 53 per cent, a figure that must be inflated due to our failure to ascertain all liveborn Down's syndrome patients.     

Early amniocentesis—a cytogenetic evaluation of over 1500 cases

We report our cytogenetic experience of 1554 early amniocenteses between weeks 11 and 14 of gestation, of which 44 per cent were performed prior to week 14. The mean culture time was 14·5 days. Karyotyping was successful in 99·7 per cent of cases. In 9·9 per cent of cases, there was pseudomosaicism with a high rate of loss of an X-chromosome and structural aberration of chromosome 1, which may be due to the Chang medium. The mosaic rate was 0·5 per cent. The overall aberration rate was 2·8 per cent. Our data confirm the reliability of early amniocentesis, which is a serious alternative to standard amniocentesis and chorionic villus sampling (CVS).     

Prenatal diagnosis for the detection of down syndrome: Why are so few eligible women tested?

Postpartum women ≧ 33 years were interviewed about their attitudes to and knowledge and use of prenatal diagnosis. Overall, 68 per cent had heard of prenatal diagnosis; nevertheless, only 30 per cent of those ≧ 35 had actually been tested. The only significant difference between eligible women who were tested and those who were not was maternal age. Of those tested, half requested it for themselves; conversely, only two-thirds of women requesting the procedure actually received it. Among women not tested, 82 per cent were never offered the procedure by the physician. Expressed attitudes to prenatal diagnosis were strongly positive among all women, with 75 per cent continuing to want testing after learning both their age-specific risk of having an affected child and the possible risks of amniocentesis. The data document a potential demand for amniocentesis far in excess of current use and present service facilities. They suggest, moreover, that underuse may reflect professional hesitation and underreferral more than consumer lack of demand or reluctance to be tested.     

Prospective intervention trial of a screening protocol to identify fetal trisomy 18 using maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein,unconjugated oestriol,and human chorionic gonadotropin

Two prenatal centres in New England, routinely using a screening protocol for fetal Down syndrome that included maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), unconjugated oestriol (uE3), and human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) measurements in combination with maternal age, adopted a separate screening protocol for trisomy 18. That protocol identified a pregnancy as being at high risk when AFP, uE3, and hCG measurements all fell at or below specified cut-offs (0.75, 0.60, and 0.55 multiples of the median, respectively), regardless of maternal age. Among the first 19 491 women screened, 98 (0.5 per cent) were found to have values which placed them in the high-risk category. Four of these women were subsequently found not to be pregnant. In two others, samples from non-pregnant individuals were found to have been incorrectly submitted for analysis in place of the samples from the pregnant women. All of the remaining 92 women were counselled and offered amniocentesis and fetal karyotyping. Eighty-eight (96 per cent) accepted. Karyotypes or birth outcomes were available on all 92 pregnancies. Six cases of trisomy 18 and one case of Turner syndrome were identified by karyotype. One case of trisomy 18 was identified for every 14 unaffected pregnancies offered amniocentesis. In the present prospective study, an estimated 85 per cent of the cases of trisomy 18 were identified. However, given the small number ofcases (six), the 95 per cent confidence interval for the detection rate is broad (40–95 per cent).     

First trimester chorionic villus sampling versus mid-trimester genetic amniocentesis-preliminary results of a controlled prospective trial

This controlled prospective study assesses the relative risks of first trimester chorionic villus sampling (CVS) versus mid-trimester gentic amniocentesis (GA). CVS subjects and amnio-centesis controls were comparable with regard to several confounding variables which might influence the risk of pregnancy loss including maternal age, smoking, alcohol consumption, gestational age at study entry, and history of vaginal bleeding or poor prior reproductive outcome. The most common indication for prenatal diagnosis was advanced maternal age (n = 511). In this subgroup, spontaneous abortion (<24 weeks) occurred in 2·9 per cent of CVS subjects versus 4−3 per cent of amniocentesis controls. The sum of spontaneous and therapeutic abortions (<24 weeks) was identical (5·3 per cent) in both groups. Therefore, intervention in the CVS group (i.e., therapeutic abortion for cytogenetic abnormalities) did not influence the observed risk of pregnancy loss. Overall perinatal mortality rates were also similar in both groups. No significant differences were identified for a number of pregnancy outcome parameters including 5 min Apgar score, birth weight, body length, head circumference, gestational age at delivery, preterm delivery, fetal growth retardation, congenital malformations, and neonatal complications. Preliminary results of this controlled prospective study suggest that chorionic villus sampling carries a low and acceptable risk.     

The dilemma of chromosomal mosaicism in chorionic villus sampling—‘direct’ versus long-term cultures

Chromosomal mosaicism is one of several unanswered dilemmas in first-trimester prenatal diagnosis. We report the course of a pregnancy in which a normal karyotype was detected on direct CVS preparation and fetal blood, 100 per cent trisomy 21 in one long-term CVS culture, and low-rate trisomy 21 mosaicism in a second long-term CVS culture and amniocentesis. The phenotypically normal infant had a 6 per cent mosaicism of trisomy 21. It appears that a persistent low-rate mosaicism in different tissues may be indicative of the true status of the fetus.     

Attitudes to prenatal screening,diagnosis and research among pregnant women who accept or decline an alpha-fetoprotein test

The aim of the study was to describe the opinion of pregnant women who had accepted or declined an alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) test, not only on AFP screening in general, but also on whether every pregnant woman should be offered amniocentesis (AC)/chorionic villus sampling (CVS) and an ultrasound scan for fetal malformations. An additional aim was to describe pregnant women's attitudes concerning continued research in the prenatal field. The study was performed as a questionnaire study in two regions over a 1-year period from 1 October 1988 to 30 September 1989. Results are based on answers from 3331 women who had taken an AFP test and 336 women who had declined the offer of a test. A total of 79 per cent of the women thought that an AFP test, 70 per cent that an ultrasound scan for fetal malformations, and 26 per cent that AC or CVS should be offered to all pregnant women. Fifty-nine per cent of the women were positive towards continued research in the prenatal field. Women who had had an AFP test were generally much more positive towards screening and research than women who had declined, who were generally against. Women who had left school without a high school degree were on average more positive towards the screening issues than women who had this degree. In conclusion, the results obtained in this study strongly suggest that women's attitudes are very dependent on how the prenatal screening programme is already organized in their local area.     

Attitudes of women of childbearing age towards prenatal diagnosis in Southeastern France

The objective of this study was to explore women's attitudes towards prenatal diagnosis of trisomy 21 and to examine some of the factors possibly responsible for these attitudes before implementing in real practice serological screening of pregnant women at risk for trisomy 21. We carried out a telephone survey on a representative sample of women who had recently had a normal livebirth delivery in the Marseille district in 1990. The participation rate was 80 per cent and the average age of the mothers was 28-9 years. Among the 514 women interviewed, 78 per cent stated that they would ask for an amniocentesis for a 1 per cent risk of trisomy 21 at their next pregnancy. When adjusting for confounding factors, the decision to have or not to have an amniocentesis was found to depend not only on the women's attitude towards induced abortion, but also on their understanding of the risk involved and on the social context (knowing a handicapped child, discussion with the father). It also depended on the women's age and on what they knew about amniocentesis from the medical point of view. The risk of miscarriage can influence a woman's choice but this objection was not found to affect the women's decisions significantly in our survey. The data showed the existence of a high potential demand for fetal karyotyping.     

Risk-based prenatal screening for trisomy 18 using alpha-fetoprotein,unconjugated oestriol and human chorionic gonadotropin

Nine centres collaborated to examine the feasibility of a screening method for trisomy 18 that was based on assigning individual risk, using a combination of maternal age and measurements of alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), unconjugated oestriol (uE3), and human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG). Second-trimester measurements of these analytes were obtained from 94 trisomy 18 pregnancies. In the 89 pregnancies without an associated open defect, the median levels for AFP, uE3, and hCG were 0.65, 0.43 and 0.36 multiples of the unaffected population median, respectively. The strongest individual predictor of risk for trisomy 18 was uE3, followed by hCG, AFP, and maternal age, in that order. Using a method of individual risk estimation that is based on the three markers and maternal age, 60 per cent of pregnancies associated with trisomy 18 would be detected at a risk cut-off level of 1:100, with a false-positive rate of about 0.2 per cent. One in nine pregnancies identified as being at increased risk for trisomy 18 would be expected to have an affected pregnancy. This risk-based screening method is more efficient than an existing method that is based on fixed analyte cut-off levels. Even though the birth prevalence of trisomy 18 is low, prenatal screening can be justified when performed in conjunction with Down syndrome screening and when a high proportion of women offered amniocentesis have an affected fetus.     

Variation in prenatal cytogenetic diagnosis: Policies in 13 european countries, 1989–1991

The livebirth prevalence of autosomal chromosomal anomalies is determined by several factors, including maternal age distribution and the impact of prenatal cytogenetic diagnosis (PCD). The impact of PCD varies between countries, as the indications and the uptake vary. In a previous study we described differences in Down syndrome prevalence and the proportion of older mothers. We have now made a survey of the official PCD policies in 25 regions in 13 European countries for the period 1989–1991. In two countries, termination of pregnancy was not available. In the other 11 countries, international agreement existed on five indications: advanced maternal age, a previous child with a chromosomal anomaly, parents who are carriers of a balanced translocation, mothers who are carriers of an X-linked disorder, and malformations at ultrasound. The exact limit for advanced maternal age varied from 35 to 38 years. There was a considerable variation for the indications advanced paternal age, amniocentesis for AFP or DNA, parental anxiety, a previous child with a congenital anomaly, abnormal maternal serum markers, and exposure to radiation/chemotherapy. The PCD uptake for mothers above the maternal age limit varied from 10 to 88 per cent. International harmonization of the indications for PCD is not considered feasible at present, because of the rapid changes in PCD policies even within countries.     

Evaluation of transcervical chorionic villus sampling with a completed follow-up of 1550 consecutive pregnancies

Data from 1550 consecutive pregnancies after first-trimester prenatal diagnosis by transcervical chorionic villus sampling (TC-CVS) are presented. The sampling efficacy was 97.8 per cent; the mean amount of collected villus tissue was 23 mg (range 5–100 mg). There were 97 affected fetuses, mainly (73.2 per cent) with a chromosomal abnormality or a male karyotype in carriers of X-linked disease. Pregnancy termination in these and four other women for social reasons resulted in 1449 continuing pregnancies. In these pregnancies, the fetal loss rate up to 28 weeks of gestation was 5.1 per cent with the highest loss rate (3.9 per cent) before 16 weeks. When relating this fetal loss rate to maternal age, this was 6.1 per cent in the advanced maternal age group (⩾36 years) against 3.1 per cent in the younger age group. In 1376 pregnancies continuing beyond 28 weeks, the perinatal mortality rate was 1.1 per cent; the percentage of non-genetic congenital anomalies was 0.9 per cent. The reproductive pattern of women at high genetic risk after CVS followed by pregnancy termination was evaluated. Within 12 months after the first CVS followed by pregnancy termination, 70 percent of women again requested CVS in a subsequent pregnancy.     

Introduction of early amniocentesis to routine prenatal diagnosis

With growing awareness of the problems associated with prenatal cytogenetic diagnoses after CVS, attempts have been made to provide early amniocentesis as an alternative to CVS. Since 1990, at our clinic the gestational age limit for routine diagnostic amniocentesis has been successively lowered, first to 14 and then to 13 weeks of gestation. Thus, 811 prenatal diagnoses were performed after early amniocentesis at 13 weeks (n = 217) and at 14 weeks of gestation (n = 594). No problems were encountered. Culture failure was never observed in the early samples. Using the criteria ‘number of colonies’ and ‘culture duration until harvest’, early samples taken at 14 weeks did not differ significantly from the controls after standard amniocentesis performed at 15 and 16 weeks, respectively, whereas a minority of samples taken at 13 weeks experienced some delay in culturing. However, in each group at least 85 per cent of samples led to a diagnosis fulfilling our standard criteria of a safe diagnosis (at least 20 metaphases of at least five colonies from at least one primary culture after trypsinization) within 15 days. Some differences between the different groups can be recognized: culture duration of less than 11 days tends to be increasing after standard amniocentesis, whereas long culture duration (more than 20 days) is more often associated with early amniocentesis. However, this trend is only minimal and did not result in an increased risk of missing a diagnosis.     

Maternal age in the epidemiology of common autosomal trisomies

The birth prevalence rate of each common autosomal trisomy generally increases with advancing maternal age and there is a substantial fetal loss rate between late first trimester and term. The literature is reviewed in order to provide the best estimates of these rates, taking account where possible of biases due to prenatal diagnosis and selective termination of pregnancy. There is an almost exponential increase in Down syndrome birth prevalence between ages 15 and 45 but at older ages the curve flattens. There is no evidence of the claimed relatively high birth prevalence at extremely low ages. Gestation-specific intra-uterine fetal loss rates are estimated by follow-up of women declining termination of pregnancy after prenatal diagnosis, comparison of observed rates with those expected from birth prevalence and comparison of age-specific curves developed for prenatal diagnosis and birth. Down syndrome fetal loss rates reduce with gestation and increase with maternal age. Edwards and Patau syndrome birth prevalence is approximately 1/8 and 1/13 that of Down syndrome overall, although the ratio differs according to maternal age, particularly for Patau syndrome where it reduces steadily from 1/9 to 1/19. Fetal loss rates are higher for Edwards and Patau syndromes than for Down syndrome.     

Prenatal diagnosis by chorionic villus sampling: Lessons of the first 600 cases

Chorionic villus sampling (CVS) has emerged as a first trimester alternative to amniocentesis for the prenatal detection of genetic disorders. We report our experience in 600 consecutive CVS procedures to better delineate the safety, efficacy and reliability of this new method of prenatal diagnosis. Adequate samples were obtained at the initial visit in 97 per cent of the cases, and successful cultures were established in 98.7 per cent of these patients. Chromosome abnormalities were detected in 5.9 per cent of those pregnancies tested because of advanced maternal age (≥ 35 years). A discrepancy between the villus karyotype and that of the fetus was found in 2.0 per cent of cases, and most commonly consisted of mosaicism in the villus sample for a chromosomal abnormality that was not found in fetal samples. The risk of spontaneous abortion following the procedure was 6.3 per cent. We conclude that chorionic villus sampling is an acceptably safe and reliable procedure, but further investigation is needed before it can become an established technique in prenatal diagnosis.