大型铁路客运站大客流预警及应对方案设计 ——以北京西站为例

铁路客运站作为旅客集散地,出入站客流量会因为节假日、大规模列车晚点或停运等突发事件出现大规模聚集。当车站出现高密度客流时,若未能及时采取有效的应对措施,极易出现踩踏等事故。为应对车站大客流情况,首先制定了黄、橙、红三级预警机制。其中黄、橙预警用于应对车站高密度客流情况,而红色等级预警则用于应对短时间内车站需迅速疏散客流的紧急情形和大量客流长时间无法乘车离开的情形。最后重点研究了基于不同等级预警的应对方案。所提出的大型客运站大客流预警与应对方案实际应用于北京西站,经过多次春运和暑运检测,起到了良好的效果。     

Protective factors associated with young passenger intervening in risky driving situations

IntroductionWhile the negative influence of passengers on driving is usually studied, young passengers may protect against young drivers' crash involvement by speaking out and trying to stop unsafe driving behavior. This study sought to examine psychosocial constructs of young passengers who are likely to intervene in their friends' risky driving.MethodUniversity students aged 17 to 25 years who were single (n = 123) or in a romantic relationship (n = 130) completed an online survey measuring protective factors.ResultsThe combination of individual, friend and (for participants in a relationship) romantic partner protective factors predicted self-reported passenger intervening intentions.Impact on IndustrySince peer passengers often increase young drivers' crash risk, research on passenger intervening has significant implications for road safety strategies. The findings provide support for the operationalization of protective factors in strategies that target passenger intervening behavior.     

How many crashes are caused by driver interaction with passengers? A meta-analysis approach

IntroductionConversation and other interactions with passengers while driving induce a level of distraction to the person driving.MethodThis paper conducts a qualitative literature review on the effect of passenger interaction on road safety and then extends it by using meta-analysis techniques.ResultsThe literature review indicates that the distraction due to passengers is a very frequent risk factor, with detrimental effects to various driving behavior and safety measures (e.g., slower reaction times to events, increased severity of injuries in crashes), associated with non-negligible proportions of crashes. Particular issues concern the effect of passenger age (children, teenagers) on which the literature is inconclusive. Existing studies vary considerably in terms of study methods and outcome measures. Nevertheless, a meta-analysis could be carried out regarding the proportion of crashes caused by this distraction factor. The selection of studies for the meta-analysis was based on a rigorous method including specific study selection criteria. The findings of the random-effects meta-analyses that were carried out showed that driver interaction with passengers causes a non-negligible proportion of road crashes, namely 3.55% of crashes regardless of the age of the passengers and 3.85% when child and teen passengers are excluded. Both meta-estimates were statistically significant, revealing the need for further research, especially considering the role of passenger age.Practical applicationsStakeholders could make good estimates on future crash numbers and causes and take action in order to counter the effects of passenger interaction.     

高速动车组列车运营环境旅客舒适度调查分析

为了解目前高速动车组列车舒适性现状,构建我国动车组卫生标准体系提供科学依据,根据《TB/T 1932—2014旅客列车卫生及监测技术规定》的规定,将影响舒适度的因素分为车内环境品质因素、旅客个人因素、服务因素3个方面20个指标,对石太客运专线、大西高速铁路运营的列车开展旅客舒适度问卷调查。调查数据表明,调查的高速动车组列车运营环境中车内温度、车内照明度、衣着量3个指标的舒适度评分均值在旅客舒适度评分最佳值±5%的区域,其余指标舒适度评分均值尚未进入旅客舒适度评分最佳值±5%的区域;进而提出应在车内环境因素、服务因素等方面加以改进,不断改善高速动车组列车运营环境。     

Characteristics of teens-with-teens fatal crashes in the United States, 2005–2010

BackgroundMore than 40% of fatal crashes of 16- and 17-year-old drivers occur when transporting teenagers. Characteristics of this predominant crash type and prevention possibilities are described, based on data from fatal crashes in the United States during 2005–2010.ResultsFifty-seven percent of 16- and 17-year old drivers in fatal crashes had at least one passenger. Most commonly, all passengers were ages 13–19 (42% of all drivers and 73% of those with passengers). Of fatal crashinvolved drivers with teenage passengers and no passengers of other ages, 56% had one passenger, 24% had two, and 20% had three or more. Most frequently, passengers were the same sex and within one year of the driver. Risk factors involving speeding, alcohol use, late-night driving, lack of a valid license, seat belt non-use, and crash responsibility were more prevalent with teenage passengers than when driving alone, and the prevalence of these factors increased with the number of teenage passengers. Many risk factors were most prevalent with passengers ages 20–29, although few crashes had this occupant configuration. Risk factors were least prevalent with a passenger 30 or older.DiscussionFatal crashes of 16- and 17-year-old drivers with teen passengers are a common crash scenario, despite passenger restrictions in 42 states and the District of Columbia during some or all of the study period. The proportion of these fatal crashes decreased slightly from 46% in 1995 (pre-GDL) to 43% in 2010 and showed no signs of decreasing during the six-year study period (range 41% to 43%).Practical applicationsExisting passenger restrictions are relatively weak and could be strengthened. Fatal crashes involving teen passengers, especially multiple passengers, are more likely to involve alcohol, late-night driving, driver error, and invalid licensure, so stepped-up enforcement of existing laws involving these behaviors might reduce the prevalence of such crashes.     

Child passengers and driver culpability in fatal crashes by driver gender

Objective: Studies based on accident statistics generally suggest that the presence of a passenger reduces adult drivers' accident risk. However, passengers have been reported to be a source of distraction in a remarkable portion of distraction-related crashes. Although the effect of passengers on driving performance has been studied extensively, few studies have focused on how a child passenger affects the driver.

?A child in a car is a potential distractor for parents, especially for mothers of small children, who often suffer from sleep deficit. The aim of this study was to examine how the presence of child passengers of different ages is associated with a higher driver culpability, which was expected due to child-related distraction and fatigue.

Methods: The analysis was based on the comprehensive data of fatal crashes studied in-depth by multidisciplinary road accident investigation teams in Finland during 1988–2012. Teams determine the primary party who had the most crucial effect on the origin of the event. We define the primary party as culpable and the others involved as nonculpable drivers. The culpability rate was defined as the percentage of culpable drivers and rates were compared for drivers with a child/teen passenger aged 0–17 years (N = 348), with an adult passenger without children (N = 324), and when driving alone (N = 579), grouped by child age and driver gender.

?Drivers with specific risk-related behavior (substantial speeding, driving when intoxicated, unbelted, or without a license) were excluded from the analyses, in order to make the drivers with and without children comparable. Only drivers 26–47 years old were included, representing parents with children 0–9 years of age.

Results: Male drivers were less often culpable with 0- to 17-year-old passengers in the car than alone or with adults. This was not the case with female drivers. The gender difference in culpability was most marked with small children age 0–4 years. Female drivers' culpability rate with a 0- to 4-year-old child passenger was higher and male drivers' culpability rate was lower compared to drivers without passengers or with only adult passengers.

Conclusion: The results indicate that female drivers are at higher risk of crashes than male drivers when driving with small children. Further research is needed to replicate this finding and to determine causal mechanisms.     

基于地铁乘客个体特征的非适应性行为研究

为减少应急疏散时地铁乘客的非适应性行为,提高应急疏散效率,以知信行(KAP)理论为基础,构建地铁疏散乘客非适应性行为模型,在此基础上编制乘客非适应性行为调查问卷,运用SPSS软件中的T检验和方差分析方法分析乘客个体基础特征对非适应性行为的影响,并运用结构方程模型研究疏散乘客安全知识及安全态度与非适应性行为的关系。结果表明:疏散乘客的性别、年龄及火灾经历对非适应性行为具有显著影响,文化程度及乘车频次对非适应性行为无显著影响;疏散乘客的安全知识和安全态度对非适应性行为均具有显著的负向影响。     

Effects of passengers on bus driver celeration behavior and incident prediction

PROBLEM: Driver celeration (speed change) behavior of bus drivers has previously been found to predict their traffic incident involvement, but it has also been ascertained that the level of celeration is influenced by the number of passengers carried as well as other traffic density variables. This means that the individual level of celeration is not as well estimated as could be the case. Another hypothesized influence of the number of passengers is that of differential quality of measurements, where high passenger density circumstances are supposed to yield better estimates of the individual driver component of celeration behavior. METHOD: Comparisons were made between different variants of the celeration as predictor of traffic incidents of bus drivers. The number of bus passengers was held constant, and cases identified by their number of passengers per kilometer during measurement were excluded (in 12 samples of repeated measurements). RESULTS: After holding passengers constant, the correlations between celeration behavior and incident record increased very slightly. Also, the selective prediction of incident record of those drivers who had had many passengers when measured increased the correlations even more. CONCLUSIONS: The influence of traffic density variables like the number of passengers have little direct influence on the predictive power of celeration behavior, despite the impact upon absolute celeration level. Selective prediction on the other hand increased correlations substantially. This unusual effect was probably due to how the individual propensity for high or low celeration driving was affected by the number of stops made and general traffic density; differences between drivers in this respect were probably enhanced by the denser traffic, thus creating a better estimate of the theoretical celeration behavior parameter C. The new concept of selective prediction was discussed in terms of making estimates of the systematic differences in quality of the individual driver data.     

加强铁路集中空调通风系统管理的探讨

为避免集中空调通风系统传播、扩散空气传播性疾病的安全隐患,在概述集中空调通风系统在某铁路局集团公司客运站应用的基础上,从首选自然通风、确保供风安全、加强通风系统清洗消毒等方面说明加强铁路客运站通风系统管理的措施,提出明确责任分工、健全卫生管理制度、开展卫生学评价、做好监督检查和应急处理等保障措施,从而有效阻断传播途径,保障广大旅客和铁路工作人员身体健康。     

地铁乘客特性与疏散行为特征相关性分析

在参照了商场、学校等人员密集场所安全疏散调查问卷的基础上,设计了地铁乘客疏散行为特征调查问卷,并在北京地铁1、2、5号线客流较大的东单站、西直门站及天通苑站获取了551份调查问卷。针对突发状态下的地铁出行乘客特性与疏散行为的相关性问题,采用皮尔逊卡方检验法进行了综合分析,获取了10组存在显著相关性的变量组及14组存在一定相关性的变量组。相关性分析结果表明,地铁出行乘客的年龄、受教育程度、职业与使用地铁出行的频率是影响人员疏散的显著相关因素,而性别与身体状况是人员疏散的相关因素。     

Social environment versus cycling competency predicting risk-taking in 11- to 13-year-old cyclists in The Netherlands

Abstract

Objectives: From age 12 onwards, cycling injuries begin rising in The Netherlands. A known contributing factor is younger children’s underdeveloped competency to deal with complex and hazardous traffic situations, and their exposure to such situations strongly increases after transitioning to secondary school. Little is known about intentional risk-taking as a contributing factor. In this developmental stage, children become increasingly vulnerable because of intentional risk-taking, affecting their safety and health. The incidence, predictors in the child’s social environment, and trends of such risks are systematically monitored; for instance, for alcohol use, smoking, and cyber bullying. Such monitors do not include risky road behavior. This exploratory field study examined the frequency of intentional risky cycling, its relationship with the perceived social environment, and relative to cycling competency measured as the ability to detect emerging hazards quickly.

Methods: Three hundred thirty-five students between 11 and 13 years of age (51% male) completed computerized tests of hazard perception skill and surveys on crashes, risk-taking, peer pressure, perceived risk-taking by parents or friends, and exposure to risky driving as passenger.

Results: Frequent risk-taking was associated with higher crash frequency. Stepwise regression confirmed that children who more often took risks on the road were also more sensitive to peer pressure, had more often been passengers of risky drivers, had parents and friends who exhibited risky behaviors in traffic more often, and perceived hazards as less dangerous but, in contrast to expectations, did not do worse on the detection of hazards. The predictors explained 28% of the variance in total risk-taking but varied from 6 to 20% depending on the specific risk-taking behavior concerned.

Conclusions: At least 20% of children sometimes or more often take risks in traffic. Children who feel peer pressure to behave in a risky manner, observe parents and friends behaving in a risky manner in traffic, and have been exposed as passengers to risky driving more often take risks in traffic themselves. These results provide support for including items on risky road behavior in health monitors and to design interventions that address the risk factors in the child’s perceived social environment.     

Alcohol-related deaths among young passengers: An analysis of national alcohol-related fatal crashes

Introduction: There is consensus that riding with an impaired driver (RWI) constitutes a major threat to public health. The aim of this study was to characterize the factors contributing to the motor-vehicle deaths of 15–20 year-old (y/o) passengers that RWI with a peer. Method: Secondary analyses of the 2010–2018 Fatality Analysis Reporting System. 5,673 passengers aged 15–20 y/o killed while riding in passenger cars with a driver aged 21 or older, 3,542 of these drivers also aged 15–20 y/o. Analyses were conducted between October 2019 and December 2020. Results: Sixty-three percent of the young passengers were killed while riding with a driver 15–20 y/o. Of these drivers, 26.8% had a blood alcohol concentration (BAC) >0.00 g/dL and 77.1% had a BAC ≥0.08 g/dL. Compared with those occurring during the day on weekdays, fatalities of young passengers who RWI with a peer driver with a BAC ≥ 0.08 g/dL often occurred on weekend nights (OR = 8.2) and weekday nights (OR = 5.2), and when the passenger and driver were both male (OR = 1.8). Race/ethnicity was not a significant contributor to RWI fatalities. Conclusions: Most 15–20 y/o RWI fatalities occurred on weekends, at night, when the driver was a young peer with a high BAC, and the passenger and driver were male. The high prevalence of fatalities in these high-risk situations suggests that young driver-passenger dynamics may contribute to alcohol-related fatalities. Practical Applications: To curb RWI fatalities among underage passengers, countermeasures should focus not only on underage drinking drivers and riders, but also on drinking drivers of all ages. Prevention should increase focus on situations in which both the young passenger and young driver are males.     

基于心理感知的铁路综合客运枢纽客流疏解预警研究*

为解决铁路综合客运枢纽客流疏解预警忽略旅客心理感知与焦虑问题,基于状态焦虑问卷,定量描述旅客焦虑状态,通过引入心理测量学中积极率划分客流疏解等级阈值,确定枢纽客流疏解预警等级,构建以旅客感知疏解时间为预警指标的回归预测模型。研究结果表明:模型可定量预测枢纽站各种交通接驳方式客流的感知疏解时间,准确描述枢纽站预警等级,研究结果可为管理人员选择相应疏解措施提供依据。     

Aggressive driving behaviour in young drivers (aged 16 through 25) involved in fatal crashes

IntroductionWe wished to determine the extent to which number of passengers, driver age, and sex were associated with aggressive driving actions (ADAs) in young drivers involved in a fatal crash.MethodsWe used U.S. fatal-crash data from Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS), 1991 –2008. Proxy measures of aggressive driving included ADA presence and speed differential (posted speed limit minus estimated travel speed). We examined the odds of an ADA and speed differential in young drivers (aged 16 to 25) by passenger status.ResultsCompared to driving alone young drivers (aged 16) had increased odds of an ADA between 14% (OR: 1.14; 95% CI: 1.07; 1.22) and 95% (OR: 1.95; 95% CI: 1.40; 2.74) when accompanied by one and five passengers, respectively. Further, carrying a higher number of passengers was a stronger predictor of speeding in younger drivers.ConclusionsThis study supports the use of graduated licensing approaches. Specifically, developing interventions to reduce aggressive driving appear imperative.Impact on IndustryWhile the results of our study support the use of graduated licensing approaches there is room for improvement. Our study indicates that tackling impaired driving is not sufficient to drastically reduce aggressive driving among the youngest drivers. Further research on young drivers is required to understand the influence of peers and the role of gender on driving behavior. Strategies to reduce aggressive driving behaviors among the youngest drivers may not only prevent crashes during their early driving careers but may also translate into a reduced crash risk over their lifetime.     

Analyzing injury severity of bus passengers with different movements

Objective: Though public transport vehicles are rarely involved in mass casualty accidents, when they are, the number of injuries and fatalities is usually high due to the high passenger capacity. Of the few studies that have been conducted on bus safety, the majority focused on vehicle safety features, road environmental factors, as well as driver characteristics. Nevertheless, few studies have attempted to investigate the underlying risk factors related to bus occupants. This article presents an investigation aimed at identifying the risk factors affecting injury severity of bus passengers with different movements.

Method: Three different passenger movement types including standing, seated, and boarding/alighting were analyzed individually using classification and regression tree (CART) method based on publicly available accident database of Great Britain.

Results: According to the results of exploratory analyses, passenger age and vehicle maneuver are associated with passenger injury severity in all 3 types of accidents. Moreover, the variable “skidding and overturning” is associated with injury severity of seated passengers and driver age is correlated with injury severity of standing and boarding/alighting passengers.

Conclusions: The CART method shows its ability to identify and easily explain the complicated patterns affecting passenger injury severity. Several countermeasures to reduce bus passenger injury severity are recommended.     

Evaluating the cost-effectiveness of a monitoring system for improved evacuation from passenger ships

This paper presents an evaluation of the cost-effectiveness of a novel passenger monitoring system based on RFID technology for implementation onboard passenger ships. Such a system will be able to detect and keep track of passengers onboard the ship in emergency situations in order to provide crucial decision support to the officer in charge of evacuation. This will lead to increased safety and security on passenger ships. However, this increased safety will come at a certain cost. A methodology in line with Formal Safety Assessment is employed in order to assess the cost-effectiveness of the system, involving a thorough risk analysis.     

The effect of aviation safety education on passenger cabin safety awareness

This paper examines the effect of aviation safety education on passenger cabin safety awareness in knowledge, attitude, and behavior (KAB). The educational value of KAB has been addressed in various fields such as AIDS prevention and campus safety. KAB has been applied in aviation safety related areas, especially in training, such as crew resource management training, pilot training, and mechanic training. However, KAB has not been implemented in aviation passenger education in cabin safety. This paper uses the construct of “aviation safety education”, which is intended to influence airline passenger knowledge of, attitude toward, and behavior about cabin safety awareness. Passenger surveys were done at two Taiwan airports. The results show that aviation safety education positively affects airline passenger cabin safety knowledge, attitude, and behavior. We recommend safety education that involves accurate instruction about emergency equipment procedures, situational awareness, emergency responses, and relevant cabin-safety regulations.Our findings indicated that an increase in cabin safety knowledge positively affected airline passenger behavior, which supported knowledge–behavior consistency. We also found that a positive attitude toward cabin safety positively affected airline passenger behavior, which supported attitude–behavior consistency. The hypothesis that cabin safety knowledge positively affected passenger attitude – knowledge–attitude consistency was not supported.     

Identifying crucial safety assessment criteria for passenger ferry services

This study empirically identified crucial safety assessment criteria for enhancing ferry safety and compare difference between ferry passengers’, ferry operators’, academics’ and ferry governors’ perceptions of their level of importance in Taiwan. Exploratory factor analysis was subsequently conducted to summarize the safety assessment items into underlying dimensions. Six dimensions were identified, namely: safety equipment, ship structure, ship documentation inspection, safety instructions, navigation and communication, and crew members’ ability. Further analysis indicated that crew members’ ability was the most important dimension in the passenger ferry context, followed by safety equipment, ship structure, navigation and communication, ship documentation inspection, and safety instructions. Differences between passengers’ academics’, ferry operations’ and ferry governors’ perceptions of the level importance of the safety assessment dimensions were found. Implications of the study findings for improving the safety of passenger ferry services are discussed.     

Field effectiveness evaluation of advanced driver assistance systems

Abstract

Objective: Advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) are a class of vehicle technologies designed to increase safety by providing drivers with timely warnings and autonomously intervening to avoid hazardous situations. Though laboratory testing suggests that ADAS technologies will greatly impact crash involvement rates, real-world evidence that characterizes their effectiveness is still limited. This study evaluates and quantifies the association of ADAS technologies with the likelihood of a moderate or severe crash for new-model BMWs in the United States.

Methods: Vehicle ADAS option information for the cohort of model year 2014 and later BMW passenger vehicles sold after January 1, 2014 (n?=?1,063,503), was coded using VIN-identified options data. ADAS technologies of interest include frontal collision warning with autonomous emergency braking, lane departure warning, and blind spot detection. BMW Automated Crash Notification system data (from January 2014 to November 2017) were merged with vehicle data by VIN to identify crashed vehicles (n?=?15,507), including date, crash severity (delta V), and area of impact. Using Cox proportional hazards regression modeling, the study calculates the adjusted hazard ratio for crashing among BMW passenger vehicles with versus without ADAS technologies. The adjusted percentage reduction in moderate and severe crashes associated with ADAS is interpreted as one minus the hazard ratio.

Results: Vehicles equipped with both autonomous emergency braking and lane departure warning were 23% less likely to crash than those not equipped (hazard ratio [HR]?=?0.77; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.73–0.81), controlling for model year, vehicle size and body type. Autonomous emergency braking and lane departure warning generally occur together, making it difficult to tease apart their individual effects. Blind spot detection was associated with a 14% reduction in crashes after controlling for the presence of autonomous emergency braking and lane departure warning (HR =0.86; 95% CI, 0.744–0.99). Differences were observed by vehicle type and crash type. The combined effect of autonomous emergency braking and lane departure warning was greater in newer model vehicles: Equipped vehicles were 13% less likely to crash (HR =0.87; 95% CI, 0.79–0.95) among 2014 model year vehicles versus 34% less likely to crash (HR =0.66; 95% CI, 0.57–0.77) among 2017 model year vehicles.

Conclusion: This robust cohort study contributes to the growing evidence on the effectiveness of ADAS technologies.