Simulation and analysis of a combined cycle heat and power plant process

The regulations of process efficiency and stricter environmental policies require analysis of large-scale thermal energy systems to produce highly efficient, cost effective and low environmental impact energy. For analysis, it is beneficial to simulate an energy system. In this paper, simulation models are developed for the analysis of a combined cycle heat and power plant located in Göteborg, Sweden. With the help of simulation models, characteristics between district heating (DH) water temperature and key parameters such as overall district heat duty, electrical power and electrical efficiency has been developed. The characteristics are useful to estimate and maximize the key parameters during varying DH water temperature. According to a comparison between the full-load simulation models of 2006 and 2013 for the selected power plant, a loss of 2 MW is noticed for gas turbine and a loss of 2.18 MW of heat flow occurs for heat recovery steam generator in the year 2013. The feasibility analysis of modifying the connection between DH economizer and main DH line provides good performance indicators in a winter scenario. The conclusions in this paper are good references to plan and improve the performance of existing large-scale thermal power plants.     

The design of cyclonic pre-heaters in suspension cement kilns

Cement manufacturing consumes two main types of energy: fuel and electricity. On average, energy costs represent 40% of the total production costs per ton of cement. The challenge is to reduce the consumption of energy to about 3000 MJ/ton clinker without the consumption of massive additional amounts of electricity, which is normally associated with additional fuel-saving measures. This can only be achieved by implementing sound thermal energy optimization measures. Energy-efficient suspension cement kilns are now widely applied and use a cascade of cyclonic pre-heaters of moist particulate feedstock, with heat transfer from hot kiln exhaust gas to particles being a function of heat transfer coefficient, temperature difference and gas–solid contact mode and time. The gas–solid contact mode and time depend on particle movement in cyclones, which has previously been studied by positron emission particle tracking. Heat transfer is governed by Nusselt–Reynolds equations, with gas velocity and properties being a function of the temperature profile along the cascade of cyclones. A stepwise approach of the design thus combines changing hydrodynamics and heat transfer along the successive cyclones, with the overall thermal balance of the cascade as control. This approach leads to major design recommendations, as developed in the present paper.     

Exploitation of renewable energy resources for environment‐friendly sustainable development in Saudi Arabia

The recent increase in energy costs, driven by a surge in oil prices, has increased world‐wide efforts on the exploitation of renewable/wind energy resources for environment‐friendly sustainable development and to mitigate future energy challenges. Moreover, experience in the wind energy industry has reached high levels in the field of manufacturing and application. This inevitably increases the merits of wind energy exploitation. In order to exploit wind resources, through the establishment of wind power plants, specific attention must be focused on the characteristics of wind and wind machines. The literature indicates that wind‐energy resources are relatively better along coastlines. In the present study, long‐term hourly mean wind speed data for the period 1986–2003, recorded at Dhahran (Eastern Coastal region, Saudi Arabia), has been analysed to examine the wind characteristics including (but not limited to): yearly/monthly/diurnal variations of wind speed, frequency distribution of wind speed, impact of hub‐height/machine‐size on energy production, etc. Data have been checked/validated for completeness. Data analysis indicated that long‐term monthly average wind speeds ranged from 3.8 to 5.8 m/s.

Concurrently, the study determined monthly average daily energy generation from different sizes of commercial wind machines (150, 250, 600 kW, etc.) to assess the impact of wind machine size on energy yield. The study also estimated annual energy production (MWh/year) from wind farms of different capacities (3, 6, 12, 24 MW, etc.) by utilising different commercial wind energy conversion systems (WECS). It was observed that, for a given 6 MW wind farm size, a cluster of 150 kW wind machines (at 50 m hub‐height) yielded about 32% more energy when compared to a cluster of 600 kW wind machines. The study also estimated the cost of wind‐based electricity (COE, US$/kWh) by using different capacities of commercial WECS. It was found that the COE per kWh is 0.045 US$/kWh for 150 kW wind machine (at 50 m hub‐height) whereas COE was 0.039 US$/kWh for 600 kW wind machine (at 50 m hub‐height). The study also dealt with wind turbine characteristics (such as capacity factor and availability factor). These characteristics are important indicators of wind turbine performance evaluation.     

Intelligent power supply management of an autonomous hybrid energy generator

ABSTRACT

This work deals with the optimization of an hybrid energy system used to supply an isolated site. The proposed system combines a wind turbine, a photovoltaic panel, a diesel generator and a battery bank to electrify atypical home. An energy cost-effectiveness approach is adopted in accordance with meteorological data, time profile of energy consumption, and the cost of different alternative systems. A variety of performances is obtained through simulations within the Homer Pro environment. The selection of an optimal combination is based on the maximum integration of renewable energy in the suggested system with a minimum of gas emission. According to the obtained results, the overall cost of the selected installation is about 72,900 €, with 0.415€ the unit cost of a kWh electric energy provided with a contribution of renewable energy of around 86%. Simulations show a technical and financial benefits of the different configurations obtained to supply the target site. To control the proposed hybrid energy system, a supervision algorithm is developed and implemented on TMS320F28027 DSP platform. The proposed energy system aims to take advantages of renewable energy sources and shift to conventional sources only when necessary in order to ensure source autonomy and service continuity.     

Addressing food supply chain and consumption inefficiencies: potential for climate change mitigation

Globally, more than 30 % of all food that is produced is ultimately lost and/or wasted through inefficiencies in the food supply chain. In the developed world this wastage is centred on the last stage in the supply chain; the end-consumer throwing away food that is purchased but not eaten. In contrast, in the developing world the bulk of lost food occurs in the early stages of the supply chain (production, harvesting and distribution). Excess food consumption is a similarly inefficient use of global agricultural production; with almost 1 billion people now classed as obese, 842 million people are suffering from chronic hunger. Given the magnitude of greenhouse gas emissions from the agricultural sector, strategies that reduce food loss and wastage, or address excess caloric consumption, have great potential as effective tools in global climate change mitigation. Here, we examine the challenges of robust quantification of food wastage and consumption inefficiencies, and their associated greenhouse gas emissions, along the supply chain. We find that the quality and quantity of data are highly variable within and between geographical regions, with the greatest range tending to be associated with developing nations. Estimation of production-phase GHG emissions for food wastage and excess consumption is found to be similarly challenging on a global scale, with use of IPCC default (Tier 1) emission factors for food production being required in many regions. Where robust food waste data and production-phase emission factors do exist—such as for the UK—we find that avoiding consumer-phase food waste can deliver significant up-stream reductions in GHG emissions from the agricultural sector. Eliminating consumer milk waste in the UK alone could mitigate up to 200 Gg CO₂e year^?1; scaled up globally, we estimate mitigation potential of over 25,000 Gg CO₂e year^?1.     

Economic feasibility of autonomous hybrid wind–diesel power systems for residential loads in hot regions: a step to mitigate the implications of fossil fuel depletion

Today, energy occupies a pivotal position around which all socio-economic activities revolve. No energy means no life, and supply of energy in a cheap, plentiful, long-sustainable and environmentally safe form is a boon for everyone. In the light of rising cost of oil and fears of its exhaustion coupled with increased pollution, the governments worldwide are deliberating and making huge strides to promote renewable energy sources such as wind. Integration of wind machines with the diesel plants is pursued widely to reduce dependence on fossil-fuel-produced energy and to reduce the release of carbon gases that cause global climate change. The literature indicates that commercial/residential buildings in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) consume an estimated 10–40% of the total electric energy generated. The aim of this study is to analyse wind-speed data of Dhahran (East-Coast, KSA) to assess the economic feasibility of utilising autonomous hybrid wind–diesel power systems to meet the electrical load of 100 typical residential buildings (with annual electrical energy demand of 3512 MWh). The monthly average wind speeds range from 3.3 to 5.6 m/s. The hybrid systems simulated consist of different combinations of 600 kW commercial wind machines supplemented with diesel generators. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory's hybrid optimisation model for electric renewables software was employed to perform the techno-economic analysis.

The simulation results indicate that for a hybrid system comprising 600 kW wind capacity together with a 1.0 MW diesel system (two 500 kW units), the wind penetration (at 50 m hub-height, with 0% annual capacity shortage) is 26%. The cost of generating energy (COE, $/kWh) from this hybrid wind–diesel system was found to be 0.070 $/kWh (assuming diesel fuel price of 0.1 $/l). The study exhibits that for a given hybrid configuration, the number of operational hours of diesel generator sets (gensets) decreases with an increase in the wind-farm capacity. Concurrently, emphasis has also been placed on wind penetration, un-met load, effect of hub-height on energy production and COE, excess electricity generation, percentage fuel savings and reduction in carbon emissions (relative to diesel-only situation) of different hybrid systems, cost breakdown of wind–diesel systems, COE of different hybrid systems, etc.     

Fuel efficiency enhancement of modified diesel engine operated in dual fuel mode using renewable and sustainable fuels

ABSTRACT

Renewable and sustainable fuels for diesel engine applications provide energy protection, overseas exchange saving and address atmospheric and socio-economic concerns. This study presents the investigational work carried out on a single cylinder, four-stroke, direct injection diesel engine operated in dual fuel (DF) mode using renewable and sustainable fuels. In the first phase, a Y-shaped mixing chamber or venture was developed with varied angle facility for gas entry at 30°, 45° and 60°, respectively, to enable homogeneous air and gas mixing. Further effect of different gas and air mixture entry on the DF engine performance was studied. In the next phase of the work, hydrogen flow rate influence on the combustion and emission characteristics of a compression ignition (CI) engine operated in DF mode using diesel, neem oil methyl ester (NeOME) and producer gas has been investigated. During experimentation, hydrogen was mixed in different proportions varied from 3 to 12 l/min (lpm) in step of 3 lpm along with air-producer gas and the mixtures were directly inducted into engine cylinder during suction stroke. Experimental investigation showed that 45° Y-shaped mixing chamber resulted in improved performance with acceptable emission levels. Further, it is observed that investigation showed that at maximum operating conditions and hydrogen flow rate of 9 lpm, Diesel–producer gas and NeOME–producer gas combination showed increased thermal efficiency by 13.2% and 3.8%, respectively, compared to the DF operation without hydrogen addition. Further, it is noticed that hydrogen-enriched producer gas lowers the power derating by 5–10% and increases nitric oxide (NO_x) emissions. However, increased hydrogen addition beyond the 12 lpm leads to sever knocking.

Abbreviations: NeOME: Neem oil methyl ester; BTE: brake thermal efficiency; CI: compression ignition; ITE: indicated thermal efficiency; PG: producer gas; CA: crank angle; K: Kelvin; BP: brake power; IP: indicated power; H₂: hydrogen; HC: unburnt hydrocarbon; CO: carbon dioxide; CO₂: carbon dioxide; NO_x: nitric oxide; HRR: heat release rate; %: percentage; PPM: parts per million; CMFIS: conventional mechanical fuel injection system.     

Mechanical performance and capillary water absorption of sewage sludge ash concrete (SSAC)

Disposal of sewage sludge from waste water treatment plants is a serious environmental problem of increasing magnitude. Waste water treatment generates as much as 70 g of dry solids per capita per day. Although one of the disposal solutions for this waste is through incineration, still almost 30% of sludge solids remain as ash. This paper presents results related to reuse of sewage sludge ash in concrete. The sludge was characterised for chemical composition (X-ray flourescence analysis), crystalline phases (X-ray diffraction analysis) and pozzolanic activity. The effects of incineration on crystal phases of the dry sludge were investigated. Two water/cement (W/C) ratios (0.55 and 0.45) and three sludge ash percentages (5%, 10% and 20%) per cement mass were used as filler. The mechanical performance of sewage sludge ash concrete (SSAC) at different curing ages (3, 7, 28 and 90 days) was assessed by means of mechanical tests and capillary water absorption. Results show that sewage sludge ash leads to a reduction in density and mechanical strength and to an increase in capillary water absorption. Results also show that SSAC with 20% of sewage sludge ash and W/C = 0.45 has a 28 day compressive strength of almost 30 MPa. SSAC with a sludge ash contents of 5% and 10% has the same capillary water absorption coefficient as the control concrete; as for the concrete mixtures with 20% sludge ash content, the capillary water absorption is higher but in line with C20/25 strength class concretes performance.     

Sustainable cooking energy options for rural poor people in India: an empirical study

Currently, energy consumption for cooking in rural households of India is mostly based on fuelwood used in traditional stoves. This paper presents results of a study carried out in a forest fringe area of India on cooking energy use. The concept of calculating levelized cost as cost per unit of useful energy is applied on source–device combinations of cooking and validated in Bargaon Community Development Block of Sundergarh District in Odisha, India. About 92 % of the households in the study area use fuelwood as the only energy source for cooking; the total use of fuelwood for only cooking, in the Block is nearly 1.8 times the total sustainable wood supply showing an urgent need for promoting alternative cooking energy options. This paper also presents an assessment of different cooking options in terms of cost per unit of useful cooking energy. LPG, biogas and gasifier stoves are found to be far too expensive for the local people. Briquette-fired improved stoves appear to be a promising cooking energy option in the study area. Government support and intervention are recommended for promoting this option.     

Sustainable gas turbine power generation by adopting green control technologies

Performance analysis of a gas turbine with two configurations (a parallel and series free turbine) is presented and analysed. A simple configuration is analysed here for comparison. The performance parameters are work output, specific fuel consumption (SFC) and efficiency. Off-design characteristics are based on two methods of control, the first (A) is fixing the compressor–turbine inlet temperature (TIT) and varying the power TIT, whereas the second (B) method is by varying the two turbine-inlet temperatures while keeping them equal. Conclusively the series configuration has higher work output (11%), whereas the parallel arrangement has higher efficiency and lower SFC (9%). Hence, as a compromise, it is more efficient and work-productive to use method A (TIT = const.) to control both series and parallel arrangements than using method B (TIT = T₅).     

Solar photovoltaic investments and economic growth in EU: Are we able to evaluate the nexus?

A core question in energy economics may be stated as follows: Is the cost–benefit analysis being correctly applied when we encourage investments in renewables, as an alternative to the traditional energy sources? The relationship between energy consumption and economic growth has been extensively treated within economics literature. Yet, literature on the nexus between specific energy sources and GDP is almost inexistent. In this article, we intend to explore the relationship between a certain type of renewable generation technology (solar PV) and GDP. The present and above all the planned energy mix might differ widely from one country to another. Thus, the analysis by source of energy generation becomes a helpful instrument for policy-making. Using a fixed effects panel data methodology and a sample of eighteen EU countries, we find that a 1 % increase in solar PV installed capacity and in electricity production from renewable sources has a positive impact on GDP of 0.0248 and 0.0061 %, respectively. We also conclude that a 1 % growth on greenhouse gas emissions positively affects GDP by 0.3106 %. Further evidence reveals that, in terms of country-specific analysis, Germany, France, Italy and the UK have the most significant estimations for fixed effects. In fact, Germany is a solar PV technology producer, France has a very active nuclear sector, with little pressure for both renewables development and CO₂ reductions, Italy had in this period a strong governmental support to this sector, and the UK has a strong connection between the solar PV and the industry sectors.     

Optimum design and evaluation of hybrid solar/wind/diesel power system for Masirah Island

This paper addresses the requirements of electrical energy for an isolated island of Masirah in Oman. The paper studied the possibility of using sources of renewable energy in combination with current diesel power plant on the island to meet the electrical load demand. There are two renewable energy sources used in this study, solar and wind energy. This study aimed to design and evaluate hybrid solar/wind/diesel/battery system in terms of cost and pollution. By using HOMER software, many simulation analyses have been proposed to find and optimize different technologies that contain wind turbine, solar photovoltaic, and diesel in combination with storage batteries for electrical generation. Four different hybrid power systems were proposed, diesel generators only, wind/diesel/battery, PV/diesel/battery, and PV/wind/diesel/battery. The analysis of the results shows that around 75 % could reduce the cost of energy by using PV/wind/diesel hybrid power system. Also, the greenhouse emission could be reduced by around 25 % compared with these by using diesel generators system that currently utilize in the Masirah Island. The solar/wind/diesel hybrid system is techno-economically viable for Masirah Island.     

PAH emission from the incineration of three plastic wastes

A batch-type, controlled-air incinerator was used for the treatment of polyvinyl chloride (PVC), high-density polyethylene (HDPE), and polypropylene (PP) plastic wastes. The concentration and composition of 21 individual polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in the raw wastes, flue gas (gas and particle phases), and ash were determined. Stack flue-gas samples were collected by a PAH stack-sampling system. Twenty-one individual PAHs were analyzed primarily by a gas chromatograph/mass spectrometer (GC/MS). The CO concentration correlated well with the total PAH (R2 > .89), and thus can be used as a surrogate indicator for PAH emission. Excess amounts of air supply in the incineration of plastic wastes could decrease not only the concentration of the PAHs in the bottom ash but also the emission factor (EF) of the total PAH in the stack flue gas. Of the three plastic wastes, HDPE was found to have the highest mean EF of the total PAHs (462.3 mg/kg waste) from the stack flue gas. Incinerating PVC would result in a higher EF of PAHs (195.4 mg/kg waste) in the bottom ash. When PVC plastic wastes were incinerated, higher-ringed PAHs constituted a larger percentage in the bottom ash as compared to those from PP and HDPE plastics. By judging the output and input (O/I) ratio of the PAHs from the incineration trials of plastic wastes, the PAHs involved in incineration of three plastic wastes were almost entirely destroyed; and a low residual amount between 0.00018 and 0.00032 remained in the emission.     

Design,measurement and evaluation of photovoltaic pumping system for rural areas in Oman

In the present paper, the optimum design of a PV system used to operate a water pumping system was determined for Oman. The system design focused on the environmental conditions of Sohar city. The implementation and measurement of the designed system are presented to prove the effectiveness of the proposed system. The results show that the system can provide the required power at peak hours, leading to a substantial reduction in the sizing of the PV system. Consequently, the investment capital costs 2400 USD, and the cost of energy is equal to 0.309 USD/kWh. Furthermore, the results indicate that the system annual yield factor is 2024.66 kWh/kWp and that the capacity factor is 23.05 %, which is encouraging since the latter is typically 21 %. The system capital cost and the cost of energy are worth comparing to a diesel generator. A comparison is made between the proposed system and several others in the literature. The comparison indicated that the system cost of energy is promising.     

Effect of mixing chamber venturi,injection timing,compression ratio and EGR on the performance of dual-fuel engine operated with HOME and CNG

Stringent environmental policies and the ever increasing demand for energy have triggered interest in novel combustion technologies that use alternative fuels as energy sources. Of these, pilot-ignited compressed natural gas (CNG) engines that employ small biodiesel pilot to ignite a premixed natural gas–air mixture have received considerable attention. This paper discusses the effect of mixing chamber venturi, injection timing, compression ratio and exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) on the performance of dual-fuel engine operated on biodiesel derived from honge oil and is called honge oil methyl ester (HOME) and CNG. The proposed study mainly focuses on the manifold induction of CNG along with HOME injection. However, CNG can also be injected using port or direct gas injector (Lakshmanan and Nagarajan 2010, Energy 35, pp. 3172–3178). The future study will involve these methods of CNG injection. From this study, it is concluded that an advanced injection timing and an increased compression ratio resulted in increased brake thermal efficiency and reduced smoke, hydrocarbons and carbon monoxide emissions. However, nitrogen oxides (NO _x ) emission increased significantly. The increased NO _x emission was effectively reduced with EGR method. A mixing chamber venturi of 3 mm size, injection timing of 27° before top dead centre (BTDC), compression ratio of 17.5 and 10% EGR were found to be optimum for the modified compression ignition engine that was operated on CNG–HOME dual-fuel mode.     

Intra-annual dynamics of water stress in the central Indian Highlands from 2002 to 2012

India’s continued development depends on the availability of adequate water. This paper applies a data-driven approach to estimate the intra-annual dynamics of water stress across the central Indian Highlands over the period 2002–2012. We investigate the spatial distribution of water demanding sectors including industry, domestic, irrigation, livestock and thermal power generation. We also examine the vulnerability of urban centers within the study area to water stress. We find that 74 % of the area of the central Indian Highlands experienced water stress (defined as demand exceeding supply) for 4 or more months out of the year. The rabi (winter) season irrigation drives the intra-annual water stress across the landscape. The Godavari basin experiences the most surface water stress while the Ganga and Narmada basins experience water stress due to groundwater deficits as a result of rabi irrigation. All urban centers experience water stress at some time during a year. Urban centers in the Godavari basin are considerably water stressed, for example, Achalpur, Nagpur and Chandrapur experience water stress 8 months out of the year. Irrigation dominates water use accounting for 95 % of the total water demand, with substantial increases in irrigated land over the last decade. Managing land use to promote hydrologic functions will become increasingly important as water stress increases.     

Concentrating solar power in a sustainable future electricity mix

The capacity of a concentrating solar thermal power (CSP) plant can be considered flexible and firm, just like that of a conventional steam cycle power station. Periods without sunshine can be bridged by thermal energy storage or fuel, enabling a CSP plant to deliver power on demand at any time. To this technical quality is added the economic quality of electricity costs that will be stable for a lifetime because they are mainly composed of capital costs, spare parts and personnel. CSP is competitive with power from fuel oil and moving to break even in costs with natural gas by around 2020 and steam coal by around 2025. Carbon dioxide emissions of 10–40 tons/GWh, land use of 250–550 m²/GWh and water consumption of 250 m³/GWh (using dry cooling) compare favorably with other energy sources. Environmental benefits, the technical imperative of firm and at the same time flexible power supply, and the economic targets of affordability and cost stability are the main reasons for a significant role for CSP in a sustainable future electricity mix. Two case studies show the different roles CSP can play north and south of the Mediterranean Sea, in one case importing CSP to Germany for flexible power and in the second case using CSP in Jordan to provide firm and at the same time renewable power capacity for the quickly growing electricity demand.     

Government intervention in green industries: lessons from the wind turbine and the organic food industries in Denmark

Government intervention in green infant industries may be justified as a strategy to increase the provision of public goods. How should government policies be designed to promote such industries? One way to analyse this question is to compare government intervention in green infant industries in which it has been successful with green infant industries in which it has been less successful. The Danish government has intervened intensively in the wind turbine industry and organic farming sector mainly for environmental reasons since 1992 and 1987, respectively, but with very different impacts. While the electricity market share of wind energy reached 20% in 2007, organic food consumption lags behind with a food market share of approximately 8.5% in 2007. This paper compares the packages of policy instruments applied in the two industrial sectors and assesses whether differences in instrument choice may explain the significant differences in market shares. It is demonstrated that government intervention in the wind turbine industry has emphasized the use of policy instruments designed to increase demand for wind energy, whereas organic farming policy has put more emphasis on instruments motivating farmers to increase supply. This may be an important factor explaining variance in growth. Finally, the paper analyses whether the lessons from government policy aimed at promoting the wind turbine industry can be transferred to organic farming policy.     

Performance,combustion and emission characteristics of a single-cylinder,four-stroke,direct injection diesel engine operated on a dual-fuel mode using Honge oil methyl ester and producer gas derived from biomass feedstock of different origin

Renewable and alternative fuels have numerous advantages compared with fossil fuels, as they are renewable and biodegradable, and provide food and energy security and foreign exchange savings besides addressing environmental concerns and socio-economic issues. In this context, present work was carried out to investigate the feasibility of alternative and renewable fuels derived from biomass feedstock of different origin for engine applications. The present study was also extended to study the effect of producer gas composition derived from different biomass feedstock on the performance, combustion and emission characteristics of a single-cylinder, four-stroke, direct injection stationary diesel engine operated on a dual-fuel mode using Honge oil methyl ester (HOME) and producer gas induction. The performance of the engine was evaluated with a constant injection timing of 27° before top dead centre, an injection pressure of 205 bar for the diesel–producer gas combination and 230 bar for the HOME–producer gas combination and a compression ratio of 17.5. The results showed that the performance of the dual-fuel engine varies with the composition of the producer gas and depends on the type of biomass feedstock used in the gasifier. Experimental investigations on the dual-fuel engine showed that brake thermal efficiency values for the engine operated using HOME–producer gas derived from babul, neem and honge woods were found to be 17.2, 14.3 and 11.56% respectively, compared to 23.8% for diesel–producer gas operation at 80% load. However, the results showed better engine performance with lower exhaust emission levels for the operation of HOME–producer gas derived from the ordinary or babul wood compared with the operation of that derived from the neem and Honge woods. In view of this, present study reveals that use of alternative and renewable fuels for dual fuel engine can be considered as an immediate solution for the development of rural areas and emergency use in the event of severe diesel fuel shortage.     

Analyzing the hydrologic effects of region-wide land and water development interventions: a case study of the Upper Blue Nile basin

In the drylands of the Upper Blue Nile basin, high climate variability and land degradation are rampant. To enhance adaptive capacity in the region, various soil and water conservation interventions have been implemented. Moreover, water resources development schemes such as the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam should be implemented by 2025. We modeled the effects of these interventions on surface runoff in the basin for both current and future (2025) basin conditions, using the runoff coefficient method in a spatially explicit approach. Under current conditions, we observed high spatial variability of mean annual runoff. The northeastern Blue Nile-1 sub-basin produces the highest mean annual runoff (391 mm or 10 × 10⁹ m³), whereas the northwestern Blue Nile-2 sub-basin produces the lowest mean annual runoff (178 mm or 0.2 × 10⁹ m³). The basin generates a total annual runoff volume of 47.7 × 10⁹ m³, of which about 54 % comes from cultivated land. The strong association between land use and topography masked the direct effect of rainfall on runoff. By 2025, total annual runoff yield could decrease by up to 38 % if appropriate basin-wide soil and water conservation interventions and the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam are implemented. However, the full effects of most physical structures will only last for 1 or 2 years without regular maintenance. The improved understanding of the dynamics of the Upper Blue Nile basin’s hydrology provided by the present study will help planners to design appropriate management scenarios. Developing the basin’s database remains important for a holistic understanding of the impacts of future development interventions.