初始排放权分配对各省区碳交易策略及其减排成本的影响分析

碳排放权分配是我国碳交易机制设计的根本性问题之一.然而,不同初始分配方案对我国碳减排和宏观经济的影响尚不明确,成为制约碳交易市场快速发展的重要因素.本文以我国"十三五"时期碳排放强度下降目标为约束构建非线性规划模型,模拟了"祖父分配方案"、"支付能力方案"和"人口规模方案"3种初始排放权分配方案对各省区碳交易策略及其减排成本的影响.结果表明,碳交易市场能有效降低我国实现碳排放强度下降目标的经济成本,但在不同初始排放权分配方案下省区间的碳减排成本差异有所不同.与"支付能力方案"和"人口规模方案"相比,"祖父分配方案"下省区间碳减排成本差异较小,更能体现碳排放权分配的公平性.以公平为导向的初始排放权分配和以效率为导向的碳排放权交易相结合,有助于我国提升碳排放权配置效率、降低减排成本,促进省区间碳交易市场均衡发展.     

The impact of carbon trading on regulated agents in China

Facing requirements of sustainable development and tremendous international pressures, China has initiated a serious of trials for mandatory carbon trading schemes. In this study, to investigate the impact of carbon trading on commodity prices, emissions, outputs and profits of the regulated agents such as power plants in China, a partial equilibrium model is constructed based on the Cournot theory of oligopoly. Three key results were found. First, following the implementation of a carbon trading scheme there is a shift of production from plants with high emission rates to those with low rates. Second, the emission-based updating (EBU) allocation of allowable emissions would provide a buffer in which the reduced outputs and profits of plants with high emissions are alleviated. Third, if the electricity price is market oriented it will vary with the carbon price. Based on these results, we conclude that the carbon constraint will result in cleaner generating technologies and be helpful in promoting the development of low carbon technologies in China. In addition, the EBU allocation is more feasible at the beginning of the national carbon trading in China. Given that electricity prices in China are regulated now, we argue that mandatory carbon trading should be implemented at the beginning of coordinated reforms of market-oriented pricing in electricity.     

大同市二氧化硫初始排污权分配研究

大同市是国家大气污染防治重点城市之一和山西省SO2排污交易试点城市。初始排污权分配是推动该市SO2排污权交易政策实施的关键。针对大同市大气SO2污染排放特征和总量控制目标,提出了金字塔形的初始排污权逐级分配模式。进而选择兼顾环境容量和环境质量目标的初始排污权分配模型,完成了全市各总量子控制区和主要污染行业两个级别的初始排污权分配,并据此建议了相关排污权交易方式。     

流域容量总量分配及排污交易潜力分析

流域容量总量的公平分配方法和排污交易潜力分析是目前流域管理研究的热点.采用层次分析法(AHP)和基尼系数交互反馈的方法研究了基于人口和经济公平的流域容量总量分配方案,并在此基础上建立了不考虑交易成本时的流域排污交易优化模型.将该模型用于分析邛海流域TP交易,得到污染控制总成本最小时的TP削减工程方案和排污交易方案.通过对比交易和未交易时的污染治理最小总成本发现,在不考虑交易成本时,排污交易有节约22.35%总成本的潜力.由于未考虑交易成本,这并不能说明邛海流域排污交易是可行的.但通过这种方法可以确定邛海流域排污交易可行的最大交易成本为1.56×109元·a-1.为了增大排污交易的可行性,应减少信息收集、谈判、管理、监测等方面的交易成本使其低于这一阈值.提出的排污交易优化模型能够提供交易信息,具有降低交易成本的潜力.     

面向配额分配模拟的工业行业碳排放绩效——以郑州市为例

开展工业行业碳排放绩效研究,对于落实碳减排承诺、完善碳交易体制、推动低碳产业发展具有重要意义。采用郑州市2013年181家工业企业的基础数据,通过构建碳排放综合绩效指标体系和配额分配模型,开展不同行业的综合绩效评价和配额分配模拟。主要结论如下:(1)不同行业的碳排放强度分布极不均衡且与碳排放总量具有一定的关联性,但关联类型不尽相同。电力、热力生产和供应业的碳排放强度最高(5.4115 t/万元),烟草制品业的碳排放强度最低(0.0046 t/万元)。(2)不同行业单位用地碳排放量、单位劳动力碳排放量差异较大。电力、热力生产和供应业的单位用地碳排放及单位劳动力碳排放明显高于其他行业。(3)碳排放综合绩效表明,电力、热力生产和供应业的碳排放绩效最低,汽车制造业的碳排放绩效最高。(4)不同行业因综合绩效的差异获得与基准年碳排放不同增减比例的配额,其中,电力、热力生产和供应业获得的配额最多,化学纤维制造业获得的配额最少。通过碳配额分配模拟,郑州市整体减排18.206万t,减排比例为5.56%。(5)建议完善行业配额分配方案,并试点实施以碳排放综合绩效评价为基础的行业配额分配,实现资源节约、环境保护和碳减排的协同。     

基于多人合作对策思想的总量控制优化治理投资费用分摊方法

分析了污染物总量控制中各排污单位公平合理分摊优化治理投资费用的必要性，并阐明了应用对策论解决优化治理投资费用分摊问题的可能性．对优化治理投资费用分摊多人合作对策模型的建立及其求解方法（Ｓｈａｐｌｅｙ值法、核心法、ＣＧＡ法、ＭＣＲＳ法等）进行了描述，并将其应用于一案例中．最后指出应用对策论于总量控制优化治理投资费用分摊中将有助于总量控制规划方案的顺利实施，有效地控制污染、改善环境，使经济得以持续发展．     

一种排污权初始分配结构设计框架

作为一种新型环境政策,排污权交易在美国已经成功地演进为总量控制型排污权交易,这被认为是最接近市场经济的环境管理手段。在国内,排污权交易也日益受到政府的重视。自1988年以来,中国的许多地方都先后试点了排污权交易,但多停留在补偿政策,很少有关于总量控制型排污权交易的尝试。在政策设计的技术层面,造成这种状况的一个主要原因是缺乏有效的排污权初始分配结构设计框架。为此,在区域清洁激励市场计划排污权初始分配结构的基础上,针对渐进式减排战略指导下的总量控制型排污权交易计划,分纵向结构设计和横向结构设计两部分,提出了一种具有通用性的排污权初始分配结构设计框架。这有助于合理进行排污权初始分配。     

排污权交易制度在中国的推行建议

排污权交易制度是一种有效控制污染、改善环境的环境经济政策．在很多国家的环境保护工作中发挥了重要作用。现阶段,中国排污权交易研究尚处于探索阶段,取得了一定的理论成果与实践经验,但仍然存在配套制度缺失、法律政策滞后、市场机制不健全、初始分配方法不明确等问题。结合国外的实践经验和中国的特点．在中国推进排污权交易需要在加快法律法规体系建设、加快培育排污交易市场、加快制定促进排污权交易的激励政策、加快研究初始排污权的分配方法等方面做好工作。     

Optimising the environmental benefits of emission reductions from UK coal- and oil-fired power stations: a critical loads approach

This paper describes a method for determining reductions of SO₂ emissions from coal- and oil-fired power stations, oil refineries and large industrial units in the UK taking into account their pollution potential. The method is based on the use of two gridded data sets: critical loads, which represent the sensitivity of the environment to acid deposition and modelled estimates of total (wet + dry) sulphur deposition for 646 point sources within the UK. An iterative method is used to identify and subsequently reduce emissions from point sources that contribute most to areas of critical loads exceedance. This paper demonstrates how the method may be used to determine an optimal allocation of emissions across the UK which yields the maximum amount of environmental protection per unit of emission.The paper then goes on to consider the changes that will have to take place within the UK power generation industry in order to meet the revised EC Large Combustion Plant Directive which comes into force on 1 January 2008. Particular emphasis is placed upon proposed emissions trading schemes and the environmental implications of allowing trading between stations with high and low pollution potentials. The paper concludes by suggesting that the emissions trading process should take into account the pollution potential of each source, irrespective of whether the proposed emission is within the plant's agreed emission limit. An approach based entirely on minimizing environmental damage rather than one which takes cost into account, as in current integrated assessment modelling, could provide an interesting approach across the rest of Europe.     

Temporal dimension and water quality control in an emission trading scheme based on water environmental functional zone

Emission trading is one of the most effective alternatives to controlling water pollution. Water environmental functional zone (WEFZ) is used to determine the water quality standard and identify the zone boundary for each river or reach. In this study, a new emission trading scheme was addressed based on WEFZ, accounting for both the temporal dimension and water quality control. A temporal factor of emission trading was proposed based on variations in the environmental capacity within a year by dividing the year into three periods, including high, normal, and low periods of environmental capacity. During each period, emission trading was implemented exclusively. A water quality-control scheme was suggested based on the water quality requirement in the water functional zone, in which the water quality at the downstream boundary of the zone was required to meet the water standard following auto-purification in the stream. Two methods of calculating water quality control are addressed for point-source pollution and non-point-source pollution. The calculated temporal dimension and water quality control were located in Dongxi River of the Daning Watershed in the Three Gorges Watershed. The high period was during June, July, and August, the normal period was during April, May, September, and October, and the low period was during January, February, March, November, and December. The results from the water quality calculation demonstrated that the discharge of point-source and non-point-source pollutions led to an excess of common contaminants at the downstream boundary of WEFZ. The temporal and spatial factors above should be incorporated into the emission trading scheme based on WEFZ.     

Game theory approach to optimal capital cost allocation in pollution control

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Capacity estimation and preliminary strategy for reducing the release of dioxins in China

As a party of the Stockholm Convention on Persistent Organic Pollutants, China must submit its national implementation plan (NIP) for this convention. The strategy and action plan for reducing the release of dioxins in China are the most important components of the NIP. Three problems are key points for developing such strategy and action plan—what are the key sources for applying the best available technology/best environmental practice (BAT/BEP) to reduce the release of dioxins? How about the capacity for reducing the dioxins release from the key sources? Where are the areas of priority for applying BAT/BEP? This paper shows the efforts towards the solution of these problems. The list of key sources covering about half of the total dioxins release was determined considering four criteria. The capacity of key sources were estimated based on the difference between the emission factor corresponding to the actual situation in 2004 and that corresponding to the scenario that all key sources have been applied BAT/BEP to reduce the dioxins release. The priority analysis using the geographical information system (GIS) tool has revealed that castern provinces should be of high priority in the future reduction activities of dioxins release in China.     

我国典型非木浆造纸二噁英排放研究

根据《中国履行〈关于持久性有机污染物的斯德哥尔摩公约〉国家实施计划》,制浆造纸行业是我国开展二英履约减排的六大重点行业之一,需要在规定的时间内达到减排要求.非木浆在我国原生纸浆生产和消费中一直占有重要比例,其生产过程中广泛使用的元素氯漂白工艺被认为是造成制浆造纸行业二噁英产生的重要来源.非木纤维制浆将在我国长期存在,摸清该领域二噁英排放情况,对于我国履约和实施二噁英的减排措施有重要意义.通过对竹子、麦草、芦苇和蔗渣这4种非木纤维的典型制浆企业的漂白全过程开展二噁英排放情况的检测,并结合各企业的浆水平衡数据,得到我国应用氯化碱处理次氯酸盐(CEH)三段漂白典型工艺的草浆、苇浆、竹浆及蔗渣浆生产的外排水所含二噁英的浓度(以I-TEQ计,下同)分别为:41.8、72.7、7.46和19.7 pg.L-1,尽管都在国家规定的新排放标准附近(30 pg.L-1),但随着我国对制浆造纸行业吨耗水要求的日益严格和以上新标准的实施,相关浓度很容易超标.为了实现国内、国际环境管理的要求,认为我国有必要尽快推动该行业研究并应用二噁英减排的最佳可行技术和最佳环境实践(best available techniques/best environmental practices,BAT/BEP).同时,结合监测数据,还初步估算了非木浆元素氯漂白相关的二噁英排放因子,可为联合国环境署补充相关因子提供有意义的参考.     

初始排污权分配与核定机制研究

2006年以来,国家环保部在十余个省试点排污权交易工作,浙江省成为试点之一,并在杭州、嘉兴等地率先推行试点工作。W市在施行建设项目排污权交易的基础上,积极推行初始排污权分配与核定,逐步开展初始排污权有偿使用,在夯实排污权交易基础工作中做了有益探索。该文以W市的初始排污权分配与核定过程为例,探索适合于中国的初始排污权分配机制,为各地开展排污权交易工作提供参考。     

沙颍河流域行政单元的排污权初始分配研究

初始排污权的有效分配是排污权交易制度实施的基础,结合中国现行行政特征,以行政单元作为排污权初始分配主体开展排污权初始分配研究。具体是：以沙颍河流域为例,根据淮河水利委员会制定的沙颍河流域水功能区划及COD、氨氮限排总量要求,以COD、氨氮作为排污权初始分配的客体,通过等比例削减方法对沙颍河流域内的行政单元进行了排污权初始分配,得到了流域内各市县级行政单元的COD、氨氮初始排放权,并在此基础上从政策可行性、区域合作性及上下游城市的协调性等方面提出了开展排污权初始分配的若干建议。     

Including adaptation costs and climate change damages in evaluating post-2012 burden-sharing regimes

Many studies have been published to evaluate the consequences of different post-2012 emission allocation regimes on regional mitigation costs. This paper goes one step further and evaluates not only mitigation costs, but also adaptation costs and climate change damages. Three post-2012 emission allocation regimes (Contraction & Convergence, Multistage and Common but differentiated convergence) and two climate targets (2°C and 3°C above the pre-industrial level) are considered. This explorative analysis shows that including these other cost categories could lead to different perspectives on the outcomes of allocation regimes. Up to 2050, the poorest regions have negative mitigation costs under all allocation regimes considered, as they benefit from emission trading. However, these regions also suffer from the most severe climate impacts. As such, the financial flows due to emission trading from developed to developing countries created under these allocation regimes could also be interpreted as compensation of climate change damages and adaptation costs. In the longer run, the sum of climate change damages, adaptation costs and mitigation costs are the highest in the poorest regions of Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, for both climate targets and practically all emission allocation regimes.     

Advancing the climate regime through linking domestic emission trading systems?

More and more countries are incorporating the instrument of emissions trading into their national climate policies. This emerging mosaic of emissions trading schemes (ETS) raises the question of whether they should be linked with each other. From an economic point of view, linking of domestic schemes is supposed to increase the economic efficiency of carbon markets. In addition, linking is also expected by some to yield substantial political benefits in terms of the evolution of the UNFCCC/Kyoto regime. However, these optimistic prospects are based on a best-case scenario where all major countries establish environmentally effective emissions trading systems and then link them with each other. Real-life politics might develop rather differently. This paper therefore examines to what extent the current status of emissions trading in industrialised countries provides a basis for reinforcing and moving forward the international climate regime through linking domestic ETS. After comparing emerging emissions trading schemes from an institutional perspective, it emerges that not only emissions trading is at a very early stage in most countries, in addition the emerging systems are probably going to be designed very differently from the EU ETS. While for some design features such as the coverage design differences do not matter, there are some areas where the plans in many non-EU countries look crucially different from the EU system. The outlook for a linked international ETS is therefore currently still very uncertain. Given this state of affairs, the EU should pro-actively engage with the non-EU countries to try to harmonise their developing national emissions trading schemes with the EU ETS, widely disseminate the lessons it has learned from the EU ETS, strongly make the case for environmental integrity and at the same time make clear that systems that want to link to the EU ETS will need to meet certain quality criteria.

上海市全面实行排污许可证交易的可行性探讨

排污许可证交易系统应建立在一个完善和有效的排污许可证管理体制基础上。文章认为上海市现有排污许可证体制的经济内涵、产权、初始分配方式、基价体系等方面必须进行改革和完善。与发达国家实行的排污许可证体制相比，上海市实行的排污许可证体制缺乏相应的经济内涵，只是排污许可“执照”体制，上海市的排污许可证交易实际上是排污许可“执照”交易。根据上海市现行排污许可证体制的经济内涵及实施现状来看，近期内全面推行真正意义上的排污许可证交易所必需的条件还未成熟。目前应当继续在黄浦江上游地区进行排污许可证交易，并在各方面进行探索，进一步积累经验。     

基于共词分析的国内排污权交易理论研究现状探析

采用关键词共词分析方法,以1998年-2007年度中国学术期刊网（CNKI）收录的全部排污权交易相关论文为对象,对国内排污权交易领域的研究现状与特点进行了分析。研究表明：国内排污权交易理论研究主要集中在（1）排污权交易的经济学原理与基本概念;（2）初始排污权分配方式、排污权交易的博弈分析与机制设计;（3）以温室气体排放、水污染排放为对象的排污权交易实践问题探讨;（4）排污权交易市场构建与市场效率等四个方向上。在此基础上,与国外的研究进行了对比分析,指出了存在的差距,期望能够为中国开展该领域的研究提供帮助。     

基于改进达标检测法的跨区域排污权交易体系研究

由于污染排放存在时空与行业"热点"(hot spots)问题,针对非均匀污染物建立跨区域排污权交易体系具有一定困难。基于一种新的污染外部性度量系数,本文对传统的达标检测方法进行了改进,在此改进达标检测法上构建的跨区域排污权交易体系,能够在简化交易机制和管理工作的同时较好地解决"热点"问题,在社会总产出和总排污量不变的情况下实现社会福利的帕累托改进。