Optimization of facility location and reallocation in an industrial plant through a multi-annual framework accounting for economic and safety issues

The industrial layout traditionally has been addressed accounting for the facilities distribution and installation since the first day of operation of the plant; this is, without considering future expansions that involve additional facilities in the future operation years. This way, this paper proposes a mathematical programming formulation for the optimal facility sitting and reallocation in an industry accounting for future expansions and involving simultaneously economic and safety objectives. The proposed formulation is based on a multi-annual framework and this corresponds to a multi-objective mixed integer linear programming problem. The proposed optimization approach was applied to a case study for the facility sitting (office buildings and control rooms) in an ethylene oxide plant. The economic objective function involves the minimization of the total annual cost accounting for the value of the money through the time and the safety objective function involves the minimization for the accumulated risk over the operation time. Results show the applicability of the proposed approach.     

Combustion products toxicity risk assessment in an offshore installation

Products of a hydrocarbon fire accident have both chronic and acute health effects. They cause respiratory issues to lung cancer. While fire is the most frequent phenomenon among the offshore accidents, predicting the contaminants’ concentration and their behavior are key issues. Safety measures design, such as ventilation and emergency routes based only on predicted contaminants’ concentration seems not to be the best approach. In a combustion process, various harmful substances are produced and their concentration cannot be added. The time duration that any individual spends in different locations of an offshore installation also varies significantly. A risk-based approach considers the duration a person is exposed to contaminants at various locations and also evaluates the hazardous impacts. A risk-based approach has also an additivity characteristic which helps to assess overall risk.Through the current study, an approach is proposed to be used for risk assessment of combustion products dispersion phenomenon in a confined or semi-confined facility. Considering CO, NO₂ and CH₄ as the contaminants of concern, the dispersion of the substances over the layout of the facility after a LNG fire is modeled. Considering different exposure times for three major parts of the facility including the processing area, office area and the accommodation module, the risk contours of CO, NO₂ and CH₄ over the entire facility are developed. The additivity characteristic of the risk-based approach was used to calculate the overall risk. The proposed approach helps to better design safety measures to minimize the impacts and effective emergency evacuation planning.     

A new approach for facility siting using mapping risks on a plant grid area and optimization

The present work is focused on developing a methodology to find the optimal placement of a hazardous process unit and other facilities using optimization theory while considering a risk map in the plant area. Incidents can have possible consequences resulting from flammable gas releases, which can be evaluated by using consequence modeling programs. The probability of each incident can be derived from initial leak hole size estimation through event tree analysis. In this methodology the plant area was divided into square grids and risk scores were estimated for each grid. The overall cost is a function of the probable cost of property damage due to fires or explosions and the interconnection cost including piping, cable, and management. The proposed approach uses a mixed integer linear optimization programming (MILP) that identifies attractive locations by minimizing the overall cost. A case study is presented for a hexane–heptane separation facility that considers the meteorological data for the given area in order to show the applicability of the proposed methodology. Results from this study will be useful in assisting the selection of locations for facilities and for risk management.     

Handling data uncertainties in event tree analysis

Event tree analysis (ETA) is an established risk analysis technique to assess likelihood (in a probabilistic context) of an accident. The objective data available to estimate the likelihood is often missing (or sparse), and even if available, is subject to incompleteness (partial ignorance) and imprecision (vagueness). Without addressing incompleteness and imprecision in the available data, ETA and subsequent risk analysis give a false impression of precision and correctness that undermines the overall credibility of the process. This paper explores two approaches to address data uncertainties, namely, fuzzy sets and evidence theory, and compares the results with Monte Carlo simulations. A fuzzy-based approach is used for handling imprecision and subjectivity, whereas evidence theory is used for handling inconsistent, incomplete and conflicting data. Application of these approaches in ETA is demonstrated using the example of an LPG release near a processing facility.     

Modelling of time-varying dispersion for elevated pressurised releases without rainout

Many commonly used atmospheric dispersion models are limited to continuous or instantaneous releases only, and cannot accurately simulate time-varying releases. The current paper discusses a new enhanced dispersion formulation accounting for time-varying effects resulting from a pressure drop in a vessel or pipe, and presuming no rainout. This new formulation is implemented in the Unified Dispersion Model (UDM), and is planned to be included in a future version of Phast.First existing methods are summarised for modelling finite-duration and time-varying releases, and limitations of these methods are identified.Secondly the new mathematical model is summarised. The new formulation presumes a number of ‘observers’ to be released at successive times from the point of discharge. The UDM carries out pseudo steady-state calculations for each observer, where the release data correspond to the time at which the observer is released. Subsequently the model applies a correction to the observer concentrations to ensure mass conservation when observers move with different velocities. Finally effects of along-wind diffusion (due to ambient turbulence) are included by means of Gaussian integration over the downwind distance. This results in reduced concentrations while the cloud travels in the downwind direction.The benefits of the new UDM methodology are illustrated for the case of a H₂S toxic release from a long pipeline representative of some extremely sour fields in the Middle East that are now being developed. Using corrected observer concentrations and along-wind diffusion significantly reduces toxic effect distances when compared to the current Phast 7.1 approach.     

Occupational injury rates among Norwegian farmers: A sociotechnical perspective

Introduction: This study addressed relative injury risk among Norwegian farmers, who are mostly self-employed and run small farm enterprises. The aim was to explore the relative importance of individual, enterprise, and work environment risks for occupational injury and to discuss the latent conditions for injuries using sociotechnical system theory. Method: Injury report and risk factors were collected through a survey among Norwegian farm owners in November 2012. The response rate was 40% (n = 2,967). Annual work hours were used to calculate injury rates within groups. Poisson regression using the log of hours worked as the offset variable allowed for the modeling of adjusted rate ratios for variables predictive of injury risk. Finally, safety climate measures were introduced to assess potential moderating effects on risk. Results: Results showed that the most important risk factors for injuries were the design of the workplace, type of production, and off-farm work hours. The main results remained unchanged when adding safety climate measures, but the measures moderated the injury risk for categories of predominant production and increased the risk for farmers working with family members and/or employees. An overall finding is how the risk factors were interrelated. Conclusions: The study identified large structural diversities within and between groups of farmers. The study drew attention to operating conditions rather than individual characteristics. The farmer’s role (managerial responsibility) versus regulation and safety climate is important for discussions of injury risk. Practical Applications: We need to study sub-groups to understand how regulation and structural changes affect work conditions and management within different work systems, conditioned by production. It is important to encourage actors in the political-economic system to become involved in issues that were found to affect the safety of farmers.     

Using risk tolerance criteria to determine safety integrity levels for safety instrumented functions

Standards and industry guidelines for Safety Instrumented Systems (SISs) describe the use of hazard and risk analysis to determine the risk reduction required, or Safety Integrity Levels (SILs), of Safety Instrumented Functions (SIFs) with reference to hazardous events and risk tolerance criteria for them. However, significant problems are encountered when putting this approach into practice. There is ambiguity in the meaning of the term hazardous event. Notably, even though it is a key concept in the process-sector-specific SIS standard, IEC 61511/ISA 84, it is not defined in the standard. Consequently, risk tolerance criteria for hazardous events are ill-defined and, therefore, they are not the most appropriate criteria to use. Most current approaches to SIL determination use them and therefore they are flawed fundamentally.An informed decision on the tolerability of risk for a facility cannot be made by determining only the tolerability of risk for individual hazardous events. Rather, the tolerability of the cumulative risk from all hazard scenarios and their hazardous events for a facility must be determined. Such facility risk tolerance criteria are the type used by regulators. This issue applies to all per event risk tolerance criteria. Furthermore, determining the tolerability of risk for a facility based only on the risks of single events, be they hazard scenarios or hazardous events, and comparing them to risk tolerance criteria for the events is not meaningful because there is no consideration of how many such events can actually occur and, therefore, no measure of the total risk. The risks from events should be summed for a facility and compared with overall facility risk tolerance criteria.This paper describes and illustrates SIL determination using a risk model implemented within the framework of Layers of Protection Analysis (LOPA) that overcomes these problems. The approach allows the allocation of risk across companies, facilities, processes, process units, process modes, etc. to be managed easily.     

Fewer workers' compensation claims and lower claim costs if employers with high injury rates achieved the rates of their safer peers

Introduction: Employers engaged in similar business activities demonstrate a range of workers' compensation claim rates. Workplace injuries and illnesses could be prevented if employers with high claim rates achieved the claim rates of their safer peers. Methods: We used Washington workers' compensation claims data for years 2013–2015 to calculate rates of compensable claims (eligible for disability or time loss benefits, if unable to work four days after injury) and total accepted claims (compensable plus medical-aid only claims) for each employer. We estimated the number and cost of claims to occur if employers with high claim rates reduced them to the rates of employers at the 25th percentile, adjusted for insurance risk class, employer size, and injury type. To evaluate the impact of setting more or less ambitious goals, we also estimated reductions based on claim rates at the 10th and 50th percentiles. Results: Over 43% of claims and claim costs would be prevented if employers with higher claim rates lowered them to the 25th percentile using either total accepted or compensable claim rates as the benchmark outcome. The estimated claim cost savings from benchmarking to compensable claims was nearly as great as the estimate based on benchmarking to total accepted claims ($308.5 mil annually based on compensable claims vs. $332.4 mil based on total accepted claims). Restaurants and Taverns had the greatest number of potentially prevented compensable claims. Colleges and Universities and Wood Frame and Building Construction had the greatest potential reduction in compensable claim costs among larger and smaller employers, respectively. Conclusion: Substantial reductions in workers' compensation claims and costs are possible if employers achieve the injury rates experienced by their safer peers. Practical application: Evaluating the range of workplace injury rates among employers within industry groups identifies opportunities for injury prevention and offers another approach to resource allocation.     

Process design optimization and risk analysis

Hazard identification and risk assessment are key aspects in process plant design. They are often applied in the final stages of the process at whatever the cost, unless financial constraints are imposed. However, a much better solution would be to introduce risk analysis earlier by including it in earlier stages of the design process, such as when the cost of a plant and the cost of any accidents that may occur are estimated. In this paper, an optimization methodology is proposed, in which both cost and risk (with a deterministic approach) are taken into account, to improve on the current situation. If a decision variable is chosen, an objective function will be established that makes it possible to analyze variations in overall costs, including the cost of the investment and the cost of accidents. This leads to an optimum situation in which costs are kept to a minimum. Of course, this optimization is subject to constraints, the greatest of which is the fact that risk must not exceed tolerated threshold levels. The procedure is explained and two examples, one involving a toxic release and the other a BLEVE/fireball, are used to illustrate it.     

A new multiple-risk map approach to solve process plant layout considering safety and economic aspects

Mathematical models used to optimize the process plant layout (PPL) with risk reduction have four primary objectives, which are related to the minimization of land, pumping (pipe system), protection system devices, and risk costs. Moreover, these models are of two types: continuous plane models (CPM) and grid-based models (GBM); however, the nonconvexity of the CPM models makes difficult to achieve the global optimum, because it is formulated as Mixed-Integer Nonlinear Programming (MINLP). Thus, the risk map approach has been implemented with the grid-based models to solve problems of process plant layout focused on finding the best possible solution. However, these risk map formulations present important limitations, mainly related with the use of protection devices and the occupied area. Therefore, a new GBM-MILP formulation is proposed to optimize the selection of protection devices and minimize the occupied area. The risk is reduced through the investment on safety devices instead of considering the increase of separation distances. The proposed model was used to solve the layout problem of an ethylene oxide process, and the results was compared with a process layout reported in the literature. The results show that the model can provide the best possible solution; however, the time spent in the calculation is considerably greater than that reported for continuous plane models. Finally, the model can be used by decision-makers to evaluate different layout options for several explosion scenarios, during the early stages of the plant design.     

Dilution with air to minimise consequences of toxic/flammable gas releases

Dilution has long been considered a solution to many problems of toxic/flammable material releases. It implies diluting to a concentration that is below physiologically dangerous levels for a toxic substance (generally below TLV), or to a level below LFL for a flammable material release, ensuring that the process adopted for dilution does not itself enhance the risks.

In this paper, we discuss the dilution of a gaseous release by deliberate and cautious mixing with air to reduce its concentration to a harmless level. The idea bears its origin to the Bhopal Gas Tragedy where some families saved themselves by turning the ceiling fans on when MIC reached their bedrooms at the dead of very cold night on December 2–3, 1984. The air pushed in by the fans diluted the MIC to below the harm level.

Some of the advantages of using air dilution are: no cost of air, no air storage needed, no need to treat the air after use as in case of water curtains; required equipment, its maintenance and staff training in its use are very likely to cost less than in other ways of handling a release.

Air dilution may not be feasible in all cases, such as gaseous release within a congested equipment layout, release that forms a liquid pool, etc. The method needs to be evaluated for each case.     

Determination of the critical flammability ratio (CFR) of refrigerant blends

In order to avert hydrocarbons, (HCs) and some hydrofluorocarbons, (HFCs) inherent risk of fire, combinations with inert refrigerant fluids have already been investigated and accepted as the preferred approach for the replacement of hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs). Indeed, many of the HFCs offer characteristics (in particular, thermodynamic properties, performance, compatibility with existing equipment, moderate toxicity and relatively low cost) similar to the those of HCFCs. However, the mixing or use of a multiple-component blend may introduce a potential fractionation behavior, which cannot be disregarded due to its influence on the blend flammability characteristics.Assessing the evolution of the Concentration Limits of Flammability of a blend formulation as it is depleted is therefore essential and leads to the definition of the Flammability Ratio (FR) as the ratio of the concentrations of the flammable to nonflammable blend components. Only one FR value corresponds to one particular blend formulation. As flammability tests on different blend formulations (different FR values) are performed, one can define the threshold between flammable and nonflammable blend formulations. Per definition, the Critical Flammability Ratio (CFR) corresponds to the FR threshold between flammable and nonflammable blend formulations. This value sets a decisive baseline for fire risk assessment of refrigerant blends subject to fractionation behavior.This paper presents several methods to evaluate FRs and ultimately CFRs of a blend of multiple flammable and nonflammable components. As the FR value is varied until flammable and nonflammable blend formulations are found within a predetermined accuracy, new blend formulations are calculated and tested for combustibility. Relationships and computations from an initial blend formulation to another are therefore provided herein. Three different sets of assumptions to solve the required set of (n) equations system (for n components in the blend) are presented. Convergence, physical interpretation, extents and limitations of each method are included.     

基于潜在生命损失的危险化学品仓储区规划选址和安全布局方法研究

在现有基于风险的土地使用安全规划方法的基础上,通过引入潜在生命损失这一综合风险评价指标,建立了基于移动危险源潜在生命损失的危险化学品仓储区规划选址模型和基于固定危险源潜在生命损失的仓储区安全布局优化模型。在此基础上,提出了危险化学品仓储区规划选址和安全布局优化方法,并通过案例分析验证了该方法的适用性和可行性。采用该规划选址和安全布局优化方法可提高区域土地使用安全规划的效率,为进行城市重大危险源的规划选址和安全布局提供了新的思路。     

高硫炼油装置硫化氢泄漏场景集定量分析

随机规划方法已成为解决不确定条件下高硫炼油装置气体检测报警仪布置优化问题的重要途径,而构建接近真实情况的泄漏场景集则是实现随机规划的基础。目前,有毒气体泄漏场景集构建方面的研究鲜有报道,且传统以典型泄漏场景为代表的做法未能体现真实风险。为此给出一种融合泄漏概率和风场联合分布概率的定量构建硫化氢泄漏场景集的方法,使场景集包括重要泄漏场景并运用DNV的LEAK软件和历史气象数据定量预测场景的实现概率,为实现后续的气体泄漏检测报警仪布置随机规划提供技术支持。并以某柴油加氢装置为例,定量构建其硫化氢泄漏场景集,为后续的气体检测报警仪布置优化及其它基于定量风险分析的控制决策提供支持。     

Development of novel combustion risk index for flammable liquids based on unsupervised clustering algorithms

Current liquid flammability classification mainly relies on flash point and its risk is largely dependent on consequence and probability. However, combustions of liquefied marine fuels have their uniqueness, leading to a less consistent with the common classification. This work aims at classifying flammable liquids in compression ignition engines for further safety evaluation. Besides liquid flammability characteristics, flame propagation and aerosol formulation are considered. Two unsupervised machine learning clustering algorithms, k-means and spectral clustering, are applied to the collected liquid compounds database. To consider both cluster cohesion and separation, the global mean silhouette value is used to find the optimal number of clusters and to evaluate the clustering performance. The results show that the spectral clustering outperforms k-means on classifying the risk ratings for all proposed models, while the clustering accuracy of the optimal model has been doubled by employing spectral clustering algorithm. Moreover, principal component analysis and star coordinate diagrams are presented to visualize high dimensional data to 2-D graphs. Finally, the overall liquid safety performance is evaluated by a novel combustion risk index via the weight values determined by the information entropy approach. This index can be used to explore inherently safer fuels in the process industries.     

Accounting for the effect of concentration fluctuations on toxic load for gaseous releases of carbon dioxide

In Great Britain, advice on land-use planning decisions in the vicinity of major hazard sites and pipelines is provided to Local Planning Authorities by the Health and Safety Executive (HSE), based on quantified risk assessments of the risks to the public in the event of an accidental release. For potential exposures to toxic substances, the hazard and risk is estimated by HSE on the basis of a “toxic load”. For carbon dioxide (CO₂), this is calculated from the time-integral of the gas concentration to the power eight. As a consequence of this highly non-linear dependence of the toxic load on the concentration, turbulent concentration fluctuations that occur naturally in jets or plumes of CO₂ may have a significant effect on the calculated hazard ranges. Most dispersion models used for QRA only provide estimates of the time- or ensemble-averaged concentrations. If only mean concentrations are used to calculate the toxic load, and the effects of concentration fluctuations are ignored, there is a danger that toxic loads and hence hazard ranges will be significantly under-estimated.This paper explores a simple and pragmatic modification to the calculation procedure for CO₂ toxic load calculations. It involves the assumption that the concentration fluctuates by a factor of two with a prescribed square-wave variation over time. To assess the validity of this methodology, two simple characteristic flows are analysed: the free jet and the dense plume (or gravity current). In the former case, an empirical model is used to show that the factor-of-two approach provides conservative estimates of the hazard range. In the latter case, a survey of the literature indicates that there is at present insufficient information to come to any definite conclusions.Recommendations are provided for future work to investigate the concentration fluctuation behaviour in dense CO₂ plumes. This includes further analysis of existing dense gas dispersion data, measurements of concentration fluctuations in ongoing large-scale CO₂ release experiments, and numerical simulations.     

Risk measures constituting a risk metrics which enables improved decision making: Value-at-Risk

In this work, a novel approach is proposed for expressing the risks of process plants consisting of a large number of scenarios, in the form of a risk metrics of leading indicators to prevent potential high profile industry accidents. The methodology includes: 1) risk estimation of a portfolio by CPQRA (or QRA), 2) monetization of the tangible risks with the inclusion of the lost time of production, 3) estimation of the maximum portfolio loss using Value-at-Risk approach, 4) inclusion of intangible risks using FN-curve and, 5) generation of F$-curve of tangible risks. The proposed methodology can particularly help in understanding the stakes at risk by performing the overall cost-benefit analysis, for identifying the most risky scenarios and identifying critical equipments to enable better risk-informed decision making in order to adopt appropriate risk mitigation measures. This work establishes the groundwork for developing measures for understanding and comparing the large number of risk values derived from QRA studies for large portfolios. It will aid in less subjective decision making as it enables the decision maker to choose the most preferred portfolio option among alternatives. Decisions made with the accurate understanding of the consequences of risks can significantly reduce potential work-related fatalities, property losses and save millions of dollars.     

Real-time risk assessment of explosion on offshore platform using Bayesian network and CFD

Combustion or explosion accident resulting from accidental hydrocarbon release poses a severe threat to the offshore platform's operational safety. Much attention has been paid to the risk of an accident occurring over a long period, while the real-time risk that escalates from a primary accident to a serious one was ignored. In this study, a real-time risk assessment model is presented for risk analysis of release accidents, which may escalate into a combustion or explosion. The proposed model takes advantage of Fault Tree-Event Tree (FT-ET) to describe the accident scenario, and Bayesian network (BN) to obtain the initial probability of each consequence and describe the dependencies among safety barriers. Besides, Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) is applied to handle the relationship between gas dispersion and time-dependent risk. Ignition probability model that considering potential ignition sources, gas cloud, and time series are also integrated into this framework to explain the likelihood of accident evolution. A case of release accidents on a production platform is used to test the availability and effectiveness of the proposed methodology, which can be adopted for facilities layout optimization and ignition sources control.