Comparison of Critical Load Exceedance and Its Uncertainty Based on National and Site-specific Data

Critical loads have been used to develop international agreements on acidifying air pollution abatement, and within the UK and other countries, to develop national policies for pollution abatement. The Environment Agency (England and Wales) has regulatory obligations to protect sites of high conservation value from the threat of acidification, and hence requires a practical methodology for acidification assessments at the site-specific scale. The Environment Agency has therefore posed the question: Are the national critical load exceedance models sufficiently robust to form the basis for methods to assess harm to individual sites or are they only useful for national policy development? In order to provide one measure of the appropriateness of applying the models at the site-specific scale we incorporated estimates of uncertainty in both national and site-specific data into the calculation of critical load exceedance for individual sites. The exceedance calculations use data from a wide range of sources and the accuracy of the exceedance will be influenced by the accuracy of the input data sets. Using Monte Carlo methods to incorporate the uncertainty in the input data sets into the calculation a distribution of critical load exceedance values is generated rather than a single point estimate. This paper compares uncertainty analyses for coniferous forested sites in England and Wales using both national scale and site-specific data sets and uncertainty ranges.     

The Link Between the Exceedance of Acidity Critical Loads for Freshwaters,Current Chemical Status and Biological Damage: A Re-Interpretation

Critical loads have for several years been employed bypolicymakers to aid in the development of strategies for aciddeposition abatement. They provide an effects-based approachwhereby an acid deposition flux greater than the critical load(known as critical load exceedance) implies that long-termharmful effects on a selected target organism will occur.Implicit in this approach are two assumptions: first, theexceedance of a critical load will harm the target organism,and second, the severity of biological impact is related to themagnitude of exceedance. However, static models give noindication of when the predicted damage might occur. One suchmodel, the Steady-State Water Chemistry (SSWC) model, employs aseries of empirical relationships to derive the pre-industrial,baseline leaching rate of base cations from measured waterchemistry using the so-called `F-factor'. The SSWC model setsthe critical load relative to pre-industrial base cationleaching (a permanent buffer of acid deposition) and a selectedacid neutralizing capacity (ANC) value which corresponds with aknown likelihood of damage to a biological target organism.Here we interpret the meaning of critical load exceedance as aprediction of steady-state ANC, and explore the relationshipbetween exceedance of the critical load and current chemistry. We demonstrate that a critical loadexceedance with the SSWC model does not necessarily indicatethat the critical chemical threshold (zero ANC) has alreadybeen crossed, and there may be no correlation betweenexceedance and biological status. A reformulation of the SSWCmodel is proposed which provides a direct link between currentdeposition and current chemical conditions, and is thereforemore likely to indicate current biological damage. Thereformulation illustrates the discrepancy between currentchemical status and that predicted by the SSWC model atsteady-state, which is a function of the `F-factor'.     

Critical Loads of Acidity for Surface Waters in South-Central Ontario, Canada: Regional Application of the First-Order Acidity Balance (FAB) Model

Major sulphur emission control programs have been implemented in North America, resulting in current emissions being ～30% less than those in 1980. However, the level of acidic deposition remaining is still unlikely to promote widespread recovery of aquatic ecosystems. The First-order Acidity Balance (FAB) model has been applied to south-central Ontario (285 lakes in the Muskoka River Catchment) to evaluate the need for further reductions in emissions. As a result of the past decline in deposition, the proportion of lakes with critical loads exceedance has dropped substantially; however, further reductions in sulphur and nitrogen emissions are required to eliminate critical loads exceedance. Based on bulk deposition of sulphate and nitrogen (41.1 mmol_c m^-2 yr^-1 and 62.5 mmol_c m^-2 yr^-1, respectively) for the period 1995–1999, 166 lakes (58.3%) exceedcritical loads. Even with full implementation of SO₂ abatementprograms in Canada (achieved in 1994) and the United States (legislated for 2010), critical loads will be exceeded in a large proportion (46.6%) of the study lakes.     

A Novel Method for Mapping Critical Loads Across a River Network: Application to the River Dart,Southwest England

To date, estimates of freshwater critical loads have beenbased on a single sample site within a given area, in theUK the `most sensitive' surface water in each 10 km gridsquare. The critical loads obtained are thus highlydependent on the sites chosen, and at a relatively coarsespatial resolution. To produce a higher resolutioncritical load assessment, the PEARLS (Prediction ofAcidification and Recovery on a Landscape Scale)procedure has been used to estimate critical loads acrossa large (248 km²), partially acid-sensitivecatchment in Southwest England. PEARLS utilises availablesoils and land-use databases, and sampled streamchemistry data, to derive characteristic runoffcompositions for a set of landscape types. Mixingequations are then used to calculate runoff chemistry,and subsequently critical loads, throughout the streamnetwork. Results show major spatial variability, withcritical loads lowest in streams draining peat-moorlandheadwaters, and generally increasing downstream asagricultural land contributes an increasing proportion ofrunoff. The 5th percentile freshwater critical loadfor the catchment is estimated at 0.29 keq H⁺ ha^-1yr^-1,and critical loads are exceeded for around 40% of totalstream length. The PEARLS methodology provides a novelopportunity to assess the spatial variability infreshwater critical loads, and to provide estimates ofexceedance at whole catchment scale. It has potentialapplication in the assessment of surface watersensitivity to acidification across wider areas in the UKand elsewhere.     

Deposition Loads of Sulphur and Nitrogen in Germany

High spatial resolution maps of deposition loads in Germanyare produced as an input for abatement strategy research andfor critical loads exceedance calculations on a nationalscale. In this paper methods ofmapping total deposition loads in Germany and preliminarymaps of nitrogen and sulphur deposition loads for the year1993 are presented. A comparison of these mapping resultswith EMEP deposition mapping results has been carried out.The differences in the results of the German national and theEuropean EMEP mapping, due to different databases anddifferent methods, are quantified and discussed. Highresolution maps of deposition loads are compared to Europeanlow resolution maps on the same temporal and spatial scale,assuming that on average both should lead to similar results.However, the average differencescalculated for 23 EMEP 150 × 150 km² grid cells over Germanywere found to be 33% higher for sulphur (S) total depositionby the German method 65% higher for S dry deposition and1% lower for S wet deposition. The German results fornitrogen (N) total deposition are 2% higher than the EMEPresult 22% higher for N dry deposition and 10% lower for Nwet deposition.     

Critical Loads – Is There A Need For A New Concept?

The concept of critical loads has been an important andsuccessful tool for the development of control strategiesfor transboundary air pollution in Europe. The use of theconcept has led us to a situation where very few areas inEurope will have an exceedance of critical loads foracidification in 2010, indicating that the benefits offurther control acidifying substances will be lessuseful. The critical loads concept does not, however,take into account the large benefits of further controlin damaged systems but where critical loads are nolonger exceeded. In this paper we discuss the importanceof widening the critical loads concept to include thesebenefits and we propose an additional effect-relatedmeasure, Dynamic Impact Analysis, to be included infurther control strategies and assessments. With such aconcept the actual situation and its further developmentwill be included in assessments and control strategies.     

Concentrations,Cumulative Exposure and Critical Levels of Ozone in Ireland

Concentrations of tropospheric ozone(O₃) and exceedance of critical levels to vegetationhave been investigated and mapped for Ireland. Hourlyozone concentration data (1995–1997) at 7 sevenmonitoring stations and the CORINE landcover database,supported by a Geographical Information System, wereused. AOT40 (Accumulated exposure Over a Threshold of 40ppb) was calculated for daylight hours for each station,and mapped using surface interpolation. Average O₃concentrations vary from year to year, and were estimatedto be 28 ppb, 26 ppb and 24 ppb for 1995, 1996 and 1997respectively. Ozone concentrations show a large diurnalvariation, with a maximum in the afternoon and a minimumat night-time. The critical level for crops and (semi-)natural vegetation was exceeded in all years examined.The highest exceedance occurred in 1995, where thecritical level was exceeded for almost 35% of the mappedarea. Approximately 15% and 1% of the mapped area wasexposed to exceedance levels during 1996 and 1997respectively. The maximum cumulative exposures (AOT40)were approximately 5000, 3890 and 3230 ppbh in 1995, 1996and 1997 respectively. The critical level for forests wasnot exceeded during the period of investigation.     

Freshwater Critical Loads in Wales

The Steady State Water Chemistry (SSWC) modeland the Diatom model have been used to calculate criticalloads for acidity using annual mean chemistry for 102 acidupland streams in Wales sampled as part of the Welsh AcidWaters Survey (WAWS) in 1995. Diatom critical loads werelower than SSWC values reflecting the higher effective[ANC]_limit of the Diatom model compared to the[ANC]_limit of zero used in the SSWC model. The WAWSstream sites were all located within 41 10 × 10 km squares andeach square was assigned the lowest critical load value fromamongst the sites located within it. Comparison with valuesassigned under the UK national critical loads mappingprogramme (UKCLMAP) showed that WAWS critical loads were lowerthan UKCLMAP values in approximately 40% of squares.Differences in critical load class were variable, but exceeded2 keq ha^-1 yr^-1 in up to a maximum of seven squares.It cannot be assumed, therefore, that reducing acid depositionto the currently mapped UKCLMAP critical load will protect allstreams occurring within a given 10 × 10 km grid square inWales. The limited number of sample sites means that even inthose squares where all WAWS sites will be protected, theremay be other, more acid sensitive freshwaters with lowercritical loads. This has important implications for theinterpretation and use of critical loads data for regional andlocal environmental planning.     

Critical Loads of Acidity for Forest Soils: Tentative Modifications

We reviewed the current methods for calculatingcritical loads of acidity for forest soils. The consequencesof four sets of assumptions concerning the soil modelstructure, parameter values and the critical loads criterionwere explored by comparing the values of the averageaccumulated exceedance (AAE) calculated for Finland withdeposition values for the year 1995. The AAE index is given inthe unit of deposition and is a measure of how far a region isfrom being protected in terms of fulfilling a certaincriterion, taking into account the size of the ecosystem areas.Using a critical limit for the molar ratio of theconcentrations of base cations to aluminium in soil solutiongave the lowest average accumulated exceedance. Assumingorgano-aluminium complexes and leaching of organic anions gaveAAE = 4 eq ha^-1 a^-1, which was close to the valueobtained with the standard approach used in Finland, assuminggibbsite equilibrium and no leaching of organic anions,yielding AAE = 5 eq ha^-1 a^-1. With a critical basesaturation limit, instead of the concentrations criterion, theAAE index was 17 eq ha^-1 a^-1. The highest averageaccumulated exceedance (AAE = 25 eq ha^-1 a^-1),corresponding to the lowest critical load, was obtained whenthe effects-based criterion (critical concentration or criticalbase saturation) was substituted with one restricting thedeterioration of the neutralizing capacity of the soil, ANC _le(crit) = 0. These tests illustrate the variabilityof the critical load values for acidity that can be introducedby changing the criterion or by varying the calculation method,without, however, representing the extreme values of criticalloads that could be derived.     

The Role of Mineral Weathering Rate Determinations in Generating Uncertainties in the Calculation of Critical Loads of Acidity and their Exceedance

Current legislation within Europe aimed at limitingecosystem damage resulting from inputs of atmosphericpollution is based on the critical load concept. Mineralweathering rates are central to the calculation ofcritical loads (acceptable levels) of acid deposition.The authors have undertaken a number of studies whichillustrate the complications and limitations inherent inpredicting mineral weathering rates and the implicationswhich these have for critical loads calculations andmapping. Calculated weathering rates and critical loadsfor two acid-sensitive parent materials (greywackes andgranites) are presented and are used to illustrate theimpact that uncertainty can have on critical loadexceedances. The results have obvious implications forportraying the uncertainties of critical loads to policy makers.     

Critical Loads Exceedances in Germany and their Dependence on the Scale of Input Data

Critical load exceedances have been used as an effects-related parameter for guiding international air emission control negotiations. High-resolution critical load data are combined with low-resolution deposition data.This article shows that doing so systematicallyunderestimates `true' critical load exceedances as obtainedfrom combining critical load and deposition data of identicalhigh spatial resolution. 95th percentile critical loadexceedances in EMEP grids based on high resolution depositiondata are 60 and 150% higher (mean values for nutrientnitrogen and acidity, respectively) than critical loadexceedances based on the low resolution EMEP depositionmodel. The latter are used in international negotiations. Differences in individual EMEP grid squares vary betweeninsignificantly different from zero and 340%, depending onregional deposition and critical load characteristics andcritical load types (nutrient nitrogen versus acidity).Exceedances based on high-resolution deposition values arealso compared to EMEP grid averages of these values forforests only. This comparison excludes the effect ofsystematically higher depositions to forests. Still, thescale difference of (averaged, low-resolution) deposition and(high-resolution) critical loads data yields underestimatesof the 95th percentiles by on average ca. 20%.These systematic errors due to the scale dependence should beborne in mind when interpreting effects of internationalemission control measures.     

Application of Static Critical Load Models for Acidity to High Mountain Lakes in Europe

Critical load models for acidityprovide a measure of the sensitivity of surfacewaters to acid deposition, and can be used todetermine critical load exceedance and potentiallong-term harmful effects. Three static models,the Steady-State Water Chemistry model, diatommodel and First-order Acidity Balance model, arehere applied to 11 high mountain lakes in Norway,Scotland, the Alps, the Pyrenees and the Tatras.Between five and seven of the lakes show criticalload exceedance, depending on the model used.Nitrogen as well as sulphur deposition isimportant in causing exceedance. Since soil andvegetation cover are generally sparse, geologyand lake retention time appear to be key factorsin the determination of critical load. Retentionof nitrogen is observed, but it is unclearwhether this occurs within the lake or theterrestrial part of the catchment.     

Using Multiple Chemical Criteria for Critical Loads of Acidity in Maritime Regions

Critical loads have become a well-establishedpart of the work programme of the UnitedNations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) Conventionon Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution (CLRTAP). Thelinking of ecosystem response to deposition level is thecentral principal of the critical loads approach. Foreach ecosystem, a biological indicator is chosen, asuitable chemical criterion selected and a criticalchemical limit assigned. The Bc:Al ratio is the mostwidely used chemical criterion for setting criticalloads. However, critical loads based on this criterionare very sensitive to marine deposition. In regions whichreceive high depositions of marine-derived base cations,such as the Republic of Ireland (ROI) and the UnitedKingdom (UK), critical loads based on the Bc:Al criterionwill inevitably be high. Therefore, it is proposed thatcritical loads are estimated using multiple chemicalcriteria with appropriate critical limits to protect thechosen biological indicators. The range of publishedchemical criteria have been applied to the ROI and theUK. The chemical criterion corresponding to the mostsensitive critical load have been mapped and thecontribution of each to the final maps investigated. Thesimulations indicate that the most sensitive criteria forsetting critical loads are based on specifying critical Hor Al concentrations. However, the choice of critical limits andmodel parameters will ultimately effect the criticalloads. Therefore, it is important that appropriate criticallimits are chosen to protect the biological indicator andreceptor ecosystem from long-term damage.     

Scaling and Mapping Regional Calculations of Soil Chemical Weathering Rates in Sweden

Weathering rates of base cations are crucial in critical load calculations and assessments of sustainable forestry. The weathering rate on a single site with detailed geological data can be modelled using the PROFILE model. For environmental assessments on a regional scale, the weathering rates for sites are scaled into regional maps. The step from sites to regional level requires focus on the spatial variation of weathering rates. In this paper, a method is presented by which weathering rates are calculated for 25589 Swedish sites with total elemental analysis for the soil. Based on a part of the results, a methodology for creating area covering maps by geostatistical analysis and kriging is described. A normative reconstruction model was used to transform total elemental analysis to mineralogy. Information from the Swedish Forest Inventory database and other databases were used to derive texture and other important information for the sites, e.g. climate, deposition and vegetation data. The calculated weathering rates show a regional pattern that indicates possibilities for interpolation of data in large parts of Sweden. Geostatistical analysis of an area in southern Sweden shows different properties for different base cations. Kriging was performed for potassium to demonstrate the method. It was concluded that different base cations and different regions have to be analysed separately, in order to optimise the kriging method.     

Cost-effectiveness Analysis of Reducing the Emission of Nitrogen Oxides in Asia

The purpose of this study is to evaluate cost-effective reduction strategies for nitrogen oxides (NO _x ) in the Asian region. The source-receptor relationships of the Lagrangian “puff” model of long-range transportation, ATMOS-N, were used to calculate the wet/dry deposition of the nitrogen (N) in Asia. Critical loads of N deposition in Asia were calculated from the relationships between the critical load of sulfur (S) and balance of N in and out using the data of S critical load of RAINS-ASIA. The cost functions of N reduction of Asian countries were derived by the regression analysis with the data of cost functions of European countries used in RAINS. In order to assess the environmental impact, the gaps between N deposition and critical load of N were calculated. The emission of NO _x was reduced in some cases of this model, and the changes of gaps between N deposition and critical load were observed as well as the changes of the reduction cost. It is shown that a uniform reduction of NO _x emissions by countries in Asia is not cost-effective strategy.     

Critical Loads and Dynamic Modelling to Assess European Areas at Risk of Acidification and Eutrophication

European critical loads and novel dynamic modelling data have been compiled under the LRTAP Convention by the Coordination Centre for Effects. In 2000 9.8% of the pan-European and 20.8% of the EU25 ecosystem area were at risk of acidification. For eutrophication (nutrient N) the areas at risk were 30.1 and 71.2%, respectively. Dynamic modelling results reveal that 95% of the area at risk of acidification could recover by 2030 provided acid deposition is reduced according to present legislation. Insight into the timing of effects of exceedances of critical loads for nutrient N necessitates the further development of dynamic models.     

Modeling Acidification Recovery on Threatened Ecosystems: Application to the Evaluation of the Gothenburg Protocol in France

To evaluate the acid deposition reduction negotiated for 2010 within the UNECE LRTAP Gothenburg Protocol, sulphur and nitrogen deposition time-series (1880–2100) were compared to critical loads of acidity on five French ecosystems: Massif Central basalt (site 1) and granite (2); Paris Bassin tertiary sands (3); Vosges mountains sandstone (4) and Landes eolian sands (5). The SAFE model was used to estimate the response of soil solution pH and ratio to the deposition scenario. Among the five sites, critical loads were exceeded in the past at sites 3, 4 and 5. Sites 3 and 4 were still expected to exceed in 2010, the Protocol year. Further reduction of atmospheric deposition, mainly nitrogen, would be needed to achieve recovery on these ecosystems. At sites 3, 4 and 5, the delay between the critical load exceedance and the violation of the critical chemical criterion was estimated to be 10 to 30 years in the top soil and 50 to 90 years in the deeper soil. At site 5, a recovery was expected in the top soil in 2010 with a time lag of 10 years. Unexpectedly, soil pH continued to decrease after 1980 in the deeper soil at sites 2 and 5. This time lag indicated that acidification moved down the soil profile as a consequence of slow base cation depletion by ion exchange. This delayed response of the soil solution was the result of the combination of weathering rates and vegetation uptake but also of the relative ratio between base cation deposition and acid compounds.     

Element Removal in Harvested Tree Biomass: Scenarios for Critical Loads in Wallonia,South Belgium

The critical load concept is nowwidely used as a tool for developing emissioncontrol policies in Europe. As a signatorycountry of the Convention of Long-RangeTransboundary Air Pollution, critical loads foracidity, nutrient nitrogen, nitrogen and sulphurhave been calculated for the Flemish and Walloonregions in Belgium. This paper describes themethodology used for estimating critical loadsfor forest soils in the Walloon region accordingto the Steady-State Mass Balance equations. As anexample the methodology was applied to thecatchment `Waroneu', situated in a sensitive areaof the Haute Ardenne. Main input parameters tothe equations were derived from precipitation andrunoff data of the catchment study. Improvedestimates of nitrogen uptake (Nu) and base cationuptake (BCu) were obtained by intensive samplingof Picea abies and Quercus roburtrees. Nutrient contents (Ca, Mg, K, N) andnutrient to nitrogen ratios of Picea abiesreflected the poor soil quality at a site withhigh N deposition. Quercus robur nutrientcontents increased from stem to higher orderbranches with a high proportion of nutrientslocated in the bark. However the simulation ofstem only harvesting had a minor effect oncritical loads. Measured wood densities werelower than reported literature values with a maineffect on Nu and BCu estimates. The use ofrecommended default values and/or data derivedfrom the experimental site resulted in a widerange of critical loads, some of which werelargely overestimated. Results demonstrated theimportance of site specific data for criticalload calculations.     

The Applicability of National Critical Loads Data in Assessing Designated Sites

Critical loads have been successfully used within Europe in the development of effects-based policies for pollution abatement, including the Second Sulphur Protocol and the Protocol to abate acidification, eutrophication and ground-level ozone (CLRTAP, 1979). This success has encouraged the UK Environment Agency and Conservation Agencies to use the national critical load maps as a screening tool in assessing the threats from acidification and eutrophication to designated (Natura 2000) sites. The UK maps of critical loads are based on national-scale data sets appropriate for national-scale assessments, and were never intended for use at the site-specific level. Site-based assessments are often targeted at Special Areas of Conservation, a sub-set of the UK Natura 2000 sites. The spatial data available includes the boundaries of the sites but not the location of the designated features. Ancillary data is variable from one site to another; habitat types may be described in detail with cross-reference to classes of the National Vegetation Classification (NVC: Rodwell, 1991 et seq), but information available on soils and geology is generalised and has not been related to the habitats or species being protected. Hence it can be difficult to relate the individual sites to the national maps, even where appropriate to do so. This paper examines the underlying uncertainties in the national critical load maps showing how the maps could give misleading results if used for site-specific assessments. It also includes advice on how to determine when the national data may be appropriate as a policy-tool at the site-level.     

The Use of a GIS-based Inventory to Provide a Regional Risk Assessment of Standing Waters in Great Britain Sensitive to Acidification from Atmospheric Deposition

Previous attempts to identify regions of Britain vulnerable to acidification have used sensitivity maps based on the distributionof soils, geology, and land cover across Great Britain. Additionally, a systematic survey of freshwaters undertaken as partof the U.K. critical loads mapping programme provides a regional assessment of both sensitivity (critical loads) and, in tandem withdeposition data, potential impact (critical load exceedance). Both approaches, while useful for identifying regional patterns, do not enable estimates of the number of affected water bodies to be made. Recent EU legislation (e.g., The Water Framework Directive) requires member states to set water quality objectives for all water bodies. We developed a GIS-based inventory of standing water bodies in response to the need for legislation-driven assessments of the status of the U.K. lake population. This paper describes how the inventory can be used to assess the number of standing water bodies in Britain that are vulnerable to acid deposition (at current levels), building on the sensitivity mapping undertaken previously. Using this approach, approximately 31% of all standing waters in Great Britain (excluding the Shetlands and Orkney) larger than 0.02 ha are identified as `at risk' from acidification. Higher proportions are vulnerable in Scotland and Wales. Additionally, large numbers of standing waters in areas designated for environmental protection purposes are also vulnerable.