Assessing Risk in Operational Decisions Using Great Lakes Probabilistic Water Level Forecasts

/ A method adapted from the National Weather Service's Extended Streamflow Prediction technique is applied retrospectively to three Great Lakes case studies to show how risk assessment using probabilistic monthly water level forecasts could have contributed to the decision-mak-ing process. The first case study examines the 1985 International Joint Commission (IJC) decision to store water in Lake Superior to reduce high levels on the downstream lakes. Probabilistic forecasts are generated for Lake Superior and Lakes Michigan-Huron and used with riparian inundation value functions to assess the relative impacts of the IJC's decision on riparian interests for both lakes. The second case study evaluates the risk of flooding at Milwaukee, Wisconsin, and the need to implement flood-control projects if Lake Michigan levels were to continue to rise above the October 1986 record. The third case study quantifies the risks of impaired municipal water works operation during the 1964-1965 period of extreme low water levels on Lakes Huron, St. Clair, Erie, and Ontario. Further refinements and other potential applications of the probabilistic forecast technique are discussed.KEY WORDS: Great Lakes; Water levels; Forecasting; Risk; Decision making     

Integrating limnological characteristics of high mountain lakes into the landscape of a natural area

A general conceptual watershed-lake model of the complex interactions among climatic conditions, watershed location and characteristics, lake morphology, and fish predation was used to evaluate limnological characteristics of high mountain lakes. Our main hypothesis was that decreasing elevation in mountainous terrain corresponds to an increase in diversity of watershed size and lake area, depth, temperature, nutrient concentrations, and productivity. A second hypothesis was that watershed location and aspect relative to climatic gradients within mountainous terrain influences the limnological characteristics of the lakes. We evaluated these hypotheses by examining watershed location, aspect and size; lake morphology; water quality; and phytoplankton and zooplankton community characteristics among high mountain forest and subalpine lakes in Mount Rainier National Park. Although many of the comparisons between all forest and subalpine lakes were statistically insignificant, the results revealed trends that were consistent with our hypotheses. The forest lake group included more lakes with larger watersheds, larger surface areas, greater depths, higher concentrations of nutrients, and higher algal biovolumes than did the group of subalpine lakes. Deep lakes, which were mostly of the forest lake type, exhibited thermal stratification and relatively high values of some of the water-quality variables near the lake bottoms. However, the highest near-surface water temperatures and phytoplankton densities and the taxonomic structures of the phytoplankton and zooplankton assemblages were more closely related to geographical location, which corresponded to a west-east climate gradient in the park, than to lake type. Some crustacean and rotifer taxa, however, were limited in distribution by lake type. Fish predation did not appear to play an important role in the structure of the crustacean zooplankton communities at the genus level with the exception of Mowich Lake, where crustacean taxa were absent from the zooplankton community. This was the only lake inhabited by a true zooplanktivourous species of fish.     

MATHEMATICAL MODELS: PLANNING TOOLS FOR THE GREAT LAKES1

The Great Lakes Basin Commission has initiated a Framework Study to assess the present and projected water- and related land-resource problems and demands in the Great Lakes Basin. Poorly defined objectives; incomplete and inconsistent data arrays; unknown air, biota, water, and sediment interactions; and multiple planning considerations for interconnected, large lake systems hinder objective planning. To incorporate mathematical modeling as a planning tool for the Great Lakes, a two-phase program, comprising a feasibility and design study followed by contracted and in-house modeling, data assembly, and plan development, has been initiated. The models will be used to identify sensitivities of the lakes to planning and management alternatives, insufficiencies in the data base, and inadequately understood ecosystem interactions. For the first time objective testing of resource-utilization plans to identify potential conflicts will provide a rational and cost-effective approach to Great Lakes management. Because disciplines will be interrelated, the long-term effects of planning alternatives and their impacts on neighboring lakes and states can be evaluated. Testing of the consequences of environmental accidents and increased pollution levels can be evaluated, and risks to the resource determined. Examples are cited to demonstrate the use of such planning tools.     

Relative cancer risks of chemical contaminants in the great lakes

Anyone who drinks water or eats fish from the Great Lakes consumes potentially carcinogenic chemicals. In choosing how to respond to such pollution, it is important to put the risks these contaminants pose in perspective. Based on recent measurements of carcinogens in Great Lakes fish and water, calculations of lifetime risks of cancer indicate that consumers of sport fish face cancer risks from Great Lakes contaminants that are several orders of magnitude higher than the risks posed by drinking Great Lakes water. But drinking urban groundwater and breathing urban air may be as hazardous as frequent consumption of sport fish from the Great Lakes. Making such comparisons is difficult because of variation in types and quality of information available and in the methods for estimating risk. Much uncertainty pervades the risk assessment process in such areas as estimating carcinogenic potency and human exposure to contaminants. If risk assessment is to be made more useful, it is important to quantify this uncertainty.     

A Proposed Aquatic Plant Community Biotic Index for Wisconsin Lakes

The Aquatic Macrophyte Community Index (AMCI) is a multipurpose tool developed to assess the biological quality of aquatic plant communities in lakes. It can be used to specifically analyze aquatic plant communities or as part of a multimetric system to assess overall lake quality for regulatory, planning, management, educational, or research purposes. The components of the index are maximum depth of plant growth; percentage of the littoral zone vegetated; Simpson's diversity index; the relative frequencies of submersed, sensitive, and exotic species; and taxa number. Each parameter was scaled based on data distributions from a statewide database, and scaled values were totaled for the AMCI value. AMCI values were grouped and tested by ecoregion and lake type (natural lakes and impoundments) to define quality on a regional basis. This analysis suggested that aquatic plant communities are divided into four groups: (1) Northern Lakes and Forests lakes and impoundments, (2) North-Central Hardwood Forests lakes and impoundments, (3) Southeastern Wisconsin Till Plains lakes, and (4) Southeastern Wisconsin Till Plains impoundments, Driftless Area Lakes, and Mississippi River Backwater lakes. AMCI values decline from group 1 to group 4 and reflect general water quality and human use trends in Wisconsin. The upper quartile of AMCI values in any region are the highest quality or benchmark plant communities. The interquartile range consists of normally impacted communities for the region and the lower quartile contains severely impacted or degraded plant communities. When AMCI values were applied to case studies, the values reflected known impacts to the lakes. However, quality criteria cannot be used uncritically, especially in lakes that initially have low nutrient levels.     

An Application of the T‐TEL Assessment Method to Evaluate Connectivity in a Lake‐Dominated Watershed after Drought

Lakes are landscape features that influence connectivity of mass and energy by being foci for the reception, mixing, and provision of water and material. Where lake fractions are high, they influence hydrological connectivity. This behavior was exemplified in the Baker Creek watershed in Canada's Northwest Territories during a two‐year drought in which many lake levels declined below outlet elevations. This study evaluated how lakes controlled surface runoff connectivity reestablishment following the drought using a new assessment method, T‐TEL (time scales — thresholds, excesses, losses). Analysis of daily data showed that during a summer period following the drought, connectivity occurred between 0% and 41% of the time. The size of run‐of‐the‐river lakes relative to their upstream watershed area, and the upstream lake fraction, are two factors for connectivity. These terms represent a lake's ability to control the size of storage deficits relative to rainfall, and evaporation and storage losses along pathways. The connectivity magnitude–duration curve only aligned with the watershed flow duration curve during high‐water conditions, implying lakes functioned as individuals rather than as part of a perennial watercourse during much of the study. The T‐TEL method can be used to quantify consistent metrics of hydrologic connectivity that can be used for regionalization exercises and understanding hydrologic controls on material transport.     

Human Influences on Water Quality in Great Lakes Coastal Wetlands

A better understanding of relationships between human activities and water chemistry is needed to identify and manage sources of anthropogenic stress in Great Lakes coastal wetlands. The objective of the study described in this article was to characterize relationships between water chemistry and multiple classes of human activity (agriculture, population and development, point source pollution, and atmospheric deposition). We also evaluated the influence of geomorphology and biogeographic factors on stressor-water quality relationships. We collected water chemistry data from 98 coastal wetlands distributed along the United States shoreline of the Laurentian Great Lakes and GIS-based stressor data from the associated drainage basin to examine stressor-water quality relationships. The sampling captured broad ranges (1.5–2 orders of magnitude) in total phosphorus (TP), total nitrogen (TN), dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN), total suspended solids (TSS), chlorophyll a (Chl a), and chloride; concentrations were strongly correlated with stressor metrics. Hierarchical partitioning and all-subsets regression analyses were used to evaluate the independent influence of different stressor classes on water quality and to identify best predictive models. Results showed that all categories of stress influenced water quality and that the relative influence of different classes of disturbance varied among water quality parameters. Chloride exhibited the strongest relationships with stressors followed in order by TN, Chl a, TP, TSS, and DIN. In general, coarse scale classification of wetlands by morphology (three wetland classes: riverine, protected, open coastal) and biogeography (two ecoprovinces: Eastern Broadleaf Forest [EBF] and Laurentian Mixed Forest [LMF]) did not improve predictive models. This study provides strong evidence of the link between water chemistry and human stress in Great Lakes coastal wetlands and can be used to inform management efforts to improve water quality in Great Lakes coastal ecosystems.     

MODELING OF THE GREAT LAKES WATER SYSTEM1

There have been two predominate approaches to the modeling of the Great Lakes water system: physical models and mathematical models. The physical models have been of individual lakes whereas the mathematical models have varied from models of individual processes such as evaporation occurring in one portion of one lake to models which include all water quantity components for all five Great Lakes. The assumptions and limitations of the two approaches are presented along with the kinds of results to be expected from each type of modeling. Examples of previous modeling efforts are given to illustrate these assumptions, limitations, and results. Other areas requiring further research are outlined.     

ATMOSPHERIC CONTROLS OF WATER EXCHANGE IN GREAT LAKES BASIN1

ABSTRACT Existing meteorological controls of water exchange by precipitation and evaporation on the Great Lakes are almost entirely inadvertent and related to man's urban-industrial complexes and their effect upon precipitation processes. These inadvertent effects have led to 10 to 40% increases in precipitation in localized areas within the basin. Envisioned growth of urban-industrial complexes within the Great Lakes region should lead to more inadvertent weather modification in the Basin. The only existing planned weather modification efforts are those at Lake Erie which are attempting to eliminate by redistribution the concentration of lake-derived heavy snowfall along the south shore. It appears reasonable to assume that practical increases of lake precipitation on the order of 5-20% could be achieved on an operational basis over the Great Lakes in the next 10 years, but the time of accomplishment will depend on national priorities, international cooperation, and economic factors. These activities would certainly produce a sizeable increase in the water quantity of the Great Lakes and should result in an improvement in water quality. Operational methods of evaporation suppression applicable to the lakes are just not available. Meteorological controls to ameliorate certain undesirable lake-effect snowstorms are a near reality.     

Grouping Lakes for Water Quality Assessment and Monitoring: The Roles of Regionalization and Spatial Scale

Regionalization frameworks cluster geographic data to create contiguous regions of similar climate, geology and hydrology by delineating land into discrete regions, such as ecoregions or watersheds, often at several spatial scales. Although most regionalization schemes were not originally designed for aquatic ecosystem classification or management, they are often used for such purposes, with surprisingly few explicit tests of the relative ability of different regionalization frameworks to group lakes for water quality monitoring and assessment. We examined which of 11 different lake grouping schemes at two spatial scales best captures the maximum amount of variation in water quality among regions for total nutrients, water clarity, chlorophyll, overall trophic state, and alkalinity in 479 lakes in Michigan (USA). We conducted analyses on two data sets: one that included all lakes and one that included only minimally disturbed lakes. Using hierarchical linear models that partitioned total variance into within-region and among-region components, we found that ecological drainage units and 8-digit hydrologic units most consistently captured among-region heterogeneity at their respective spatial scales using all lakes (variation among lake groups = 3% to 50% and 12% to 52%, respectively). However, regionalization schemes capture less among-region variance for minimally disturbed lakes. Diagnostics of spatial autocorrelation provided insight into the relative performance of regionalization frameworks but also demonstrated that region size is only partly responsible for capturing variation among lakes. These results suggest that regionalization schemes can provide useful frameworks for lake water quality assessment and monitoring but that we must identify the appropriate spatial scale for the questions being asked, the type of management applied, and the metrics being assessed.     

MODELING THE IMPACTS OF WATER LEVEL CHANGES ON A GREAT LAKES COMMUNITY1

ABSTRACT: Recent research that couples climate change scenarios based on general circulation models (GCM) with Great Lakes hydrologic models has indicated that average water levels are projected to decline in the future. This paper outlines a methodology to assess the potential impact of declining water levels on Great Lakes waterfront communities, using the Lake Huron shoreline at Goderich, Ontario, as an example. The methodology utilizes a geographic information system (GIS) to combine topographic and bathymetric datasets. A digital elevation surface is used to model projected shoreline change for 2050 using water level scenarios. An arbitrary scenario, based on a 1 m decline from February 2001 lake levels, is also modeled. By creating a series of shoreline scenarios, a range of impact and cost scenarios are generated for the Goderich Harbor and adjacent marinas. Additional harbor and marina dredging could cost as much as CDN $7.6 million. Lake freighters may experience a 30 percent loss in vessel capacity. The methodology is used to provide initial estimates of the potential impacts of climate change that can be readily updated as more robust climate change scenarios become available and is adaptable for use in other Great Lakes coastal communities.     

Great Lakes management: Ecological factors

Although attempts to improve the quality of the Great Lakes generally focus on chemical pollution, other factors are important and should be considered Ecological factors, such as invasion of the lakes by foreign species, habitat changes, overfishing, and random variations in organism populations, are especially influential. Lack of appreciation of the significance of ecological factors stems partly from the inappropriate application of the concept of eutrophication to the Great Lakes. Emphasis on ecological factors is not intended to diminish the seriousness of pollution, but rather to point out that more cost-effective management, as well as more realistic expectations of management efforts by the public, should result from an ecosystem management approach in which ecological factors are carefully considered.     

A Performance Comparison of Metric Scoring Methods for a Multimetric Index for Mid-Atlantic Highlands Streams

When biological metrics are combined into a multimetric index for bioassessment purposes, individual metrics must be scored as unitless numbers to be combined into a single index value. Among different multimetric indices, methods of scoring metrics may vary widely in the type of scaling used and the way in which metric expectations are established. These differences among scoring methods may influence the performance characteristics of the final index that is created by summing individual metric scores. The Macroinvertebrate Biotic Integrity Index (MBII), a multimetric index, was developed previously for first through third order streams in the Mid-Atlantic highlands of the United States. In this study, six metric scoring methods were evaluated for the MBII using measures related to site condition and index variability, including the degree of overlap between impaired and reference distributions, relationships to a stressor gradient, within-sample index variability, temporal variability, and the minimum detectable difference. Measures of index variability were affected to a greater degree than those of index responsiveness by both the type of scaling (discrete or continuous) and the method of setting expectations. A scoring method using continuous scaling and setting metric expectations using the 95th percentile of the entire distribution of sites performed the best overall for the MBII. These results showed that the method of scoring metrics affects the properties of the final index, particularly variability, and should be examined in developing a multimetric index because these properties can affect the number of condition classes (e.g., unimpaired, impaired) an index can distinguish.     

EFFECTS OF DIVERSIONS ON THE NORTH AMERICAN GREAT LAKES1

ABSTRACT: Water level fluctuations of the Great Lakes often have created regional controversies among the states and Canadian provinces that share this vast resource. Even though the 100-year range of their water levels is only four to five feet, episodes of high and low Great Lakes water levels have been a recurring problem throughout the twentieth century. The possibility of increased diversion and consumptive use has exacerbated the existing conflicts over how to manage this water resource. A research project evaluated the effects of interbasin diversion on the Great Lakes system and on the industries that depend on the maintenance of historical water levels, namely hydropower and commercial navigation. The simulation approach employed in this research and some of the important findings are presented. The approach is similar to that used in recent government studies of Great Lakes water level regulation. Several significant modifications were made specifically addressing the diversion issue. Aggregate annual impacts to hydropower and shipping resulting from a diversion of 10,000 cubic feet per second were found to vary from 60 to 100 million dollars. Increases in impacts as a function of diversion rate are nonlinear for the navigation industry.     

Development of a Bird Integrity Index: Measuring Avian Response to Disturbance in the Blue Mountains of Oregon, USA

The Bird Integrity Index (BII) presented here uses bird assemblage information to assess human impacts to 28 stream reaches in the Blue Mountains of eastern Oregon. Eighty-one candidate metrics were extracted from bird survey data for testing. The metrics represented aspects of bird taxonomic richness, tolerance or intolerance to human disturbance, dietary preferences, foraging techniques, and nesting strategies that were expected to be positively or negatively affected by human activities in the region. To evaluate the responsiveness of each metric, it was plotted against an index of reach and watershed disturbance that included attributes of land use/land cover, road density, riparian cover, mining impacts, and percent area in clearcut and partial-cut logging. Nine of the 81 candidate bird metrics remained after eliminating unresponsive and highly correlated metrics. Individual metric scores ranged from 0 to 10, and BII scores varied between 0 and 100. BII scores varied from 78.6 for a minimally disturbed, reference stream reach to 30.4 for the most highly disturbed stream reach. The BII responded clearly to varying riparian conditions and to the cumulative effects of disturbances, such as logging, grazing, and mining, which are common in the mountains of eastern Oregon. This BII for eastern Oregon was compared to an earlier BII developed for the agricultural and urban disturbance regime of the Willamette Valley in western Oregon. The BII presented here was sensitive enough to distinguish differences in condition among stream riparian zones with disturbances that were not as obvious or irreversible as those in the agricultural/urban conditions of western Oregon.     

Managing mercury in the great lakes: an analytical review of abatement policies

Mercury, a toxic metal known to have several deleterious affects on human health, has been one of the principal contaminants of concern in the Great Lakes basin. There are numerous anthropogenic sources of mercury to the Great Lakes area. Combustion of coal, smelting of non ferrous metals, and incineration of municipal and medical waste are major sources of mercury emissions in the region. In addition to North American anthropogenic emissions, global atmospheric emissions also significantly contribute to the deposition of mercury in the Great Lakes basin. Both the USA and Canada have agreed to reduce human exposure to mercury in the Great Lakes basin and have significantly curtailed mercury load to this region through individual and joint efforts. However, many important mercury sources, such as coal-fired power plants, still exist in the vicinity of the Great Lakes. More serious actions to drastically reduce mercury sources by employing alternative energy sources, restricting mercury trade and banning various mercury containing consumer products, such as dental amalgam are as essential as cleaning up the historical deposits of mercury in the basin. A strong political will and mass momentum are crucial for efficient mercury management. International cooperation is equally important. In the present paper, we have analyzed existing policies in respective jurisdictions to reduce mercury concentration in the Great Lakes environment. A brief review of the sources, occurrence in the Great Lakes, and the health effects of mercury is also included.     

MODELING HYDROLOGIC IMPACT OF WITHDRAWING THE GREAT LAKES WATER FOR AGRICULTURAL IRRIGATION1

ABSTRACT: Growing interest in agricultural irrigation in the Great Lakes basin presents an increasing competition to other uses of Great Lakes water. This paper, through a case study of the Mud Creek Irrigation District in the Saginaw Bay basin, Michigan, evaluates the potential hydrologic effects of withdrawing water for agricultural irrigation to the Great Lakes. Crop growth simulation models for corn, soybeans, dry beans, and the FAO Penman method were used to estimate the difference in evapotranspiration rates between irrigated and nonirrigated identical crops, based on climate, soil, and management data. The simulated results indicate that an additional 70–120 mm of water would be evapotranspirated during the growing season from irrigated crop fields as compared to nonirrigated identical plantings. Dependent upon the magnitude of irrigation expansion, an equivalent of about 1 to 5 mm of water from Lakes Huron-Michigan could be lost to the atmosphere. If agricultural irrigation further expands in the entire Great Lakes basin, the aggregated potential of water loss to the atmosphere through ET from all five Great Lakes would be even greater.     

SIMPLE TROPHIC STATE CLASSIFICATION OF THE CANADIAN NEARSHORE WATERS OF THE GREAT LAKES1

ABSTRACT: Trophic classification of the Canadian nearshore waters of the Great Lakes is attempted using summer, surface water quality data for the early 1970's. A generalized Composite Trophic Index is developed using paired linear relationships for total phosphorus, chlorophyll a, and Secchi depth data for 66 defined nearshore regions. The chlorophyll a and total phosphorus relationship indicates that the nearshore waters contain a low chlorophyll a concentration for a given total phosphorus concentration than observed for the open waters of the Great Lakes or for smaller Canadian lakes. The most eutrophic nearshore regions occur in areas of relatively restricted circulation and/or high nutrient loadings. These include the Bay of Quinte, Toronto and Hamilton harbours, and portions of Lake We's Western Basin. Lakes Huron and Superior are generally oligotrophic, except for some embayments. Although nearshore water quality is highly variable, this apprach represents a reasonable compromise with respect to analytical complexity. The Composite Trophic Index removes biases introduced through the use of a single trophic state indicator and uniquely describes the nearshore water quality in terms generally comparable to other water bodies.     

NEBRASKA'S SANDHILLS LAKES: A HYDROGEOLOGIC OVERVIEW1

ABSTRACT: Lakes, marshes and wet meadows occur in the broad, flat, interdune valleys of the Nebraska Sandhills, a vegetation-stabilized dune field underlain by sediments containing an enormous supply of groundwater. Hydrologic, geologic and possibly climatologic factors influence the chemical quality of lake water. Central and eastern lakes generally are in connection with the groundwater reservoir. The hydrologic nature of western lakes and the cause of their high alkalinity is not fully understood. Lakes in close proximity may vary in both their chemical characteristics and in the degree to which they change in size and depth over time. Climatic, hydrogeologic and natural lake-aging processes of accumulation of organics appear to be primarily responsible for lake-size variations.