Five Hundred Years of Hydrological Drought in the Upper Colorado River Basin1

Abstract: This article evaluates drought scenarios of the Upper Colorado River basin (UCRB) considering multiple drought variables for the past 500 years and positions the current drought in terms of the magnitude and frequency. Drought characteristics were developed considering water‐year data of UCRB’s streamflow, and basin‐wide averages of the Palmer Hydrological Drought Index (PHDI) and the Palmer Z Index. Streamflow and drought indices were reconstructed for the last 500 years using a principal component regression model based on tree‐ring data. The reconstructed streamflow showed higher variability as compared with reconstructed PHDI and reconstructed Palmer Z Index. The magnitude and severity of all droughts were obtained for the last 500 years for historical and reconstructed drought variables and ranked accordingly. The frequency of the current drought was obtained by considering two different drought frequency statistical approaches and three different methods of determining the beginning and end of the drought period (annual, 5‐year moving, and ten year moving average). It was concluded that the current drought is the worst in the observed record period (1923‐2004), but 6th to 14th largest in terms of magnitude and 1st to 12th considering severity in the past 500 years. Similarly, the current drought has a return period ranging from 37 to 103 years based on how the drought period was determined. It was concluded that if the 10‐year moving average is used for defining the drought period, the current drought appears less severe in terms of magnitude and severity in the last 500 years compared with the results using 1‐ and 5‐year averages.     

DROUGHT INDICATORS AND TRIGGERS: A STOCHASTIC APPROACH TO EVALUATION1

ABSTRACT: Drought management depends on indicators to detect drought conditions, and triggers to activate drought responses. But determining those indicators and triggers presents challenges. Indicators often lack spatial and temporal transferability, comparability among scales, and relevance to critical drought impacts. Triggers often lack statistical integrity, consistency among drought categories, and correspondence with desired management goals. This article presents an approach for developing and evaluating drought indicators and triggers, using a probabilistic framework that offers comparability, consistency, and applicability. From that, a multistate Markov model investigates the stochastic behavior of indicators and triggers, including transitioning, duration, and frequency within drought categories. This model is applied to the analysis of drought in the Apalachicola‐Chattahoochee‐Flint River Basin in the southeastern United States, using indicators of the Standardized Precipitation Index (for 3, 6, 9, and 12 months), the Palmer Drought Severity Index, and the Palmer Hydrologic Drought Index. The analysis revealed differences among the performance of indicators and their trigger thresholds, which can influence drought responses. Results contribute to improved understanding of drought phenomena, statistical methods for indicators and triggers, and insights for drought management.     

SPATIAL COMPARABILITY OF THE PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX1

ABSTRACT: The Palmer Drought Severity Index, which is intended to be of reasonable comparable local significance both in space and time, has been extensively used as a measure of drought for both agricultural and water resource management. This study examines the spatial comparability of Palmer's (1965) definition of severe and extreme drought. Index values have been computed for 1035 sites with at least 60 years of record that are scattered across the contiguous United States, and quantile values corresponding to a specified index value were calculated for given months and then mapped. The analyses show that severe or extreme droughts, as defined by Palmer (1965), are not spatially comparable in terms of identifying rare events. The wide variation across the country in the frequency of occurrence of Palmer's (1965) extreme droughts reflects the differences in the variability of precipitation, as well as the average amount of precipitation. It is recommended first, that a drought index be developed which considers both variability and averages; and second, that water resource managers and planners define a drought in terms of an index value that corresponds to the expected quantile (return period) of the event.     

GROUND WATER QUALITY PREDICTION USING CLIMATIC INDICES1

ABSTRACT: Drought affects the quality of ground water in certain aquifers used by municipalities in Kansas. Water quality changes occur as a function of the amount of water available for recharge and hence to dilute more mineralized ground waters. Several measures of meteorological drought, including the Palmer Index and Eagleman Aridity Index, were correlated with water quality data to determine the degree of association. Several locations showed sharp delinces in water quality as the drought progressed. These relationships can be used to predict possible variations in present and future well-water supplies in locations subject to drought induced water quality deterioration.     

A 396-YEAR RECONSTRUCTION OF PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN JORDAN1

ABSTRACT: Water resources are the lifeblood of the Near East region. Careful planning and management of water resources in dry land regions requires information on the likelihood of extreme events, especially prolonged drought. It is essential to understand the variability of climate on time scales of decades to centuries to assign reasonable probabilities to such events. Tree-ring analysis is one way to increase our knowledge of the climate variability beyond the short period covered by the instrumental data. In this paper, we reconstruct October-May precipitation from a Juniperus phoenicia tree-ring chronology in southern Jordan to gain a long-term (A.D. 1600–1995) perspective on runs of dry years and on time series fluctuations in precipitation averaged over several years. The reconstruction equation derived by regression of log-transformed precipitation on tree-ring indices explains 44 percent of the variance of observed precipitation. The longest reconstructed drought, as defined by consecutive years below a threshold of 217.4 mm, was four years, compared with three years for the 1946–95 instrumental data. A Monte Carlo analysis designed to account for uncertainty in the reconstruction indicates a lower than 50 percent chance that the region has experienced drought longer than five years in the past 400 years.     

A STUDY OF THE SURFACE SYNOPTIC CIRCULATION PATTERNS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DROUGHT OF THE 1960's IN THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES1

A comparative evaluation is made of the frequency of air mass and frontal types during a 4-year representative portion of the drought as opposed to an equivalent non-drought period. Selection of the non-drought period is based on the Palmer Drought Index. Results indicate a statistically significant increase in the occurrence of continental polar air during the drought. Other conclusions concerning conditions during the drought, not statistically significant but worth further study, are: lower frequency of maritime tropical air in the summer months, more occurrences of cold and occluded fronts, and fewer occurrences of stationary fronts.     

TREE-RING RECONSTRUCTION OF UPPER GILA RWER DISCHARGE1

ABSTRACT: Effective planning for use of water resources requires accurate information on hydrologic variability induced by climatic fluctuations. Tree-ring analysis is one method of extending our knowledge of hydrologic variability beyond the relatively short period covered by gaged streamflow records. In this paper, a network of recently developed tree-ring chronologies is used to reconstruct annual river discharge in the upper Gila River drainage in southeastern Arizona and southwestern Arizona since A.D. 1663. The need for data on hydrologic variability for this semi-arid basin is accentuated because water supply is inadequate to meet current demand. A reconstruction based on multiple linear regression (R²=0.66) indicates that 20th century is unusual for clustering of high-discharge years (early 1900s), severity of multiyear drought (1950s), and amplification of low-frequency discharge variations. Periods of low discharge recur at irregular intervals averaging about 20 years. Comparison with other tree-ring reconstructions shows that these low-flow periods are synchronous from the Gila Basin to the southern part of the Upper Colorado River Basin.     

COMPARING THE PALMER DROUGHT INDEX AND THE STANDARDIZED PRECIPITATION INDEX1

ABSTRACT: The Palmer Drought Index (PDI) is used as an indicator of drought severity, and a particular index value is often the signal to begin or discontinue elements of a drought contingency plan. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was recently developed to quantify a precipitation deficit for different time scales. It was designed to be an indicator of drought that recognizes the importance of time scales in the analysis of water availability and water use. This study compares historical time series of the PDI with time series of the corresponding SPI through spectral analysis. Results show that the spectral characteristics of the PDI vary from site to site throughout the U.S., while those of the SPI do not vary from site to site. They also show that the PDI has a complex structure with an exceptionally long memory, while the SPI is an easily interpreted, simple moving average process.     

AN EARLY WARNING SYSTEM FOR DROUGHT MANAGEMENT USING THE PALMER DROUGHT INDEX1

ABSTRACT: The Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) is used in a non-homogeneous Markov chain model to characterize the stochastic behavior of drought. Based on this characterization an early warning system in the form of a decision tree enumerating all possible sequences of drought progression is proposed for drought management. Besides yielding probabilities of occurrence of different drought severity classes, the method associates a secondary measure in terms of likely cumulative precipitation deficit to provide timely guidance in deciding drought mitigation actions. The proposed method is particularly useful for water availability task forces in various states for issuing drought warnings in advance. The applicability of the technique is illustrated for the Tidewater climatic division of Virginia.     

Past climate, future perspective: an exploratory analysis using climate proxies and drought risk assessment to inform water resources management and policy in Maine, USA

In recent decades, significant progress has been made toward reconstructing the past climate record based on environmental proxies, such as tree rings and ice core records. However, limited examples of research that utilizes such data for water resources decision-making and policy exist. Here, we use the reconstructed record of Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), dating back to 1138AD to understand the nature of drought occurrence (severity and duration) in the state of Maine. This work is motivated by the need to augment the scientific basis to support the water resources management and the emerging water allocation framework in Maine (Maine Department of Environmental Protection, Chapter 587). Through a joint analysis of the reconstructed PDSI and historical streamflow record for twelve streams in the state of Maine, we find that: (a) the uncertainties around the current definition of natural drought in the Chapter 587 (based on the 20th century instrumental record) can be better understood within the context of the nature and severity of past droughts in this region, and (b) a drought index provides limited information regarding at-site hydrologic variations. To fill this knowledge gap, a drought index-based risk assessment methodology for streams across the state is developed. Based on these results, the opportunities for learning and challenges facing water policies in a changing hydroclimate are discussed.     

DROUGHT INDICATED IN CARBON-13/CARBON-12 RATIOS OF SOUTHWESTERN TREE RINGS1

ABSTRACT: Stomatal closure during periods of moisture deficiency should theoretically lead to elevated ¹³C/¹²C ratios as reduction of available CO₂ leads to diminished photosynthetic discrimination against ¹³C in favor of ¹²C. Stable-carbon isotope ratio chronologies developed from 5-yr tree-ring groups at 17 sites in six southwestern states were tested for a drought relationship by first fitting a spline curve to each chronology to remove the long-term trend and calculating indices as the ratio of actual to spline curve value. The time series of “Del Indices” so developed are significantly correlated with 5-yr mean Palmer Hydrological Drought Indices (post-1930 period) and reconstructed July Palmer Drought Severity Indices from respective areas. Overall, in the period since 1790, the driest pentads were 1900–04 and 1960–64, whereas the wettest were 1980–84 and 1915–19. Maps of drought represented for two pentads seem to be reasonable representations, although spatial correlations of Del Indices with PHDI were generally not significant. These Del Index drought reconstructions may provide a useful measure of past physiological response to drought (stomatal closure), although the present cost of analysis would prevent this from being a routine method.     

SACRAMENTO RIVER FLOW RECONSTRUCTED TO A.D. 869 FROM TREE RINGS1

ABSTRACT: A time series of annual flow of the Sacramento River, California, is reconstructed to A.D. 869 from tree rings for a long‐term perspective on hydrologic drought. Reconstructions derived by principal components regression of flow on time‐varying subsets of tree‐ring chronologies account for 64 to 81 percent of the flow variance in the 1906 to 1977 calibration period. A Monte Carlo analysis of reconstructed n‐year running means indicates that the gaged record contains examples of drought extremes for averaging periods of perhaps = 6 to 10 years, but not for longer and shorter averaging periods. For example, the estimated probability approaches 1.0 that the flow in A.D. 1580 was lower than the lowest single‐year gaged flow. The tree‐ring record also suggests that persistently high or low flows over 50‐year periods characterize some parts of the long‐term flow history. The results should contribute to sensible water resources planning for the Sacramento Basin and to the methodology of incorporating tree‐ring data in the assessment of the probability of hydrologic drought.     

Assessment of Future Drought Conditions in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed

Impacts of climate change on the severity and intensity of future droughts can be evaluated based on precipitation and temperature projections, multiple hydrological models, simulated hydrometeorological variables, and various drought indices. The objective of this study was to assess climate change impacts on future drought conditions and water resources in the Chesapeake Bay (CB) watershed. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and the Variable Infiltration Capacity model were used to simulate a Modified Palmer Drought Severity Index (MPDSI), a Standardized Soil Moisture index (SSI), a Multivariate Standardized Drought Index (MSDI), along with Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models for both historical and future periods (f1: 2020‐2049, f2: 2050‐2079). The results of the SSI suggested that there was a general increase in agricultural droughts in the entire CB watershed because of increases in surface and groundwater flow and evapotranspiration. However, MPDSI and MSDI showed an overall decrease in projected drought occurrences due to the increases in precipitation in the future. The results of this study suggest that it is crucial to use multiple modeling approaches with specific drought indices that combine the effects of both precipitation and temperature changes.     

ACCEPTING THE STANDARDIZED PRECIPITATION INDEX: A CALCULATION ALGORITHM1

ABSTRACT: The Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) has been calculated for about 30 years as a means of providing a single measure of meteorological drought severity. It was intended to retrospectively look at wet and dry conditions using water balance techniques. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is a probability index that was developed to give a better representation of abnormal wetness and dryness than the Palmer indices. Before the user community will accept the SPI as an alternative to the Palmer indices, a standard method must be developed for computing the index. Standardization is necessary so that all users of the index will have a common basis for both spatial and temporal comparison of index values. If different probability distributions and models are used to describe an observed series of precipitation, then different SPI values may be obtained. This article describes the effect on the SPI values computed from different probability models as well as the effects on dry event characteristics. It is concluded that the Pearson Type III distribution is the “best” universal model, and that the reliability of the SPI is sample size dependent. It is also concluded that because of data limitations, SPIs with time scales longer than 24 months may be unreliable. An internet link is provided that will allow users to access Fortran 77 source code for calculating the SPI.     

THE PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX AS A MEASURE OF HYDROLOGIC DROUGHT1

ABSTRACT: The Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) is perhaps the most widely used regional drought index. However, there is considerable ambiguity about its value as a measure of hydrologic drought. In this paper the PDSI for climatic divisions in New Jersey is compared to the occurrence within each climatic division of streamflows in their lower quartile for the month (streamflow index), and ground-water levels in their lower quartile for the month (ground-water index). These indices are found to have distinct properties. It is not uncommon for PDSI values to indicate “severe” or “extreme” drought at times when the streamflow or groundwater index is above its lower quartile at many stations within the climatic division. The PDSI values and groundwater index indicate more persistent subnormal conditions than the streamflow index for truncation levels yielding the same total duration of drought over a period. The ground-water index tends to indicate a later beginning to droughts and of the three indices is the most conservative indicator of a drought's end. Drought timing and duration properties for the ground-water index are found to be highly influenced by the average depth to water in the well. Overall, the three indices of drought can provide three very different characterizations of drought. In particular, the results indicate that considerable caution should be exercised in drawing conclusions about hydrologic drought from the PDSI.     

HYDROLOGIC SCENARIOS FOR SEVERE SUSTAINED DROUGHT IN THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES1

ABSTRACT: This paper considers the risk of drought and develops drought scenarios for use in the study of severe sustained drought in the Southwestern United States. The focus is on the Colorado River Basin and regions to which Colorado River water is exported, especially southern California, which depends on water from the Colorado River. Drought scenarios are developed using estimates of unimpaired historic streamflow as well as reconstructions of streamflow based on tree ring widths. Drought scenarios in the Colorado River Basin are defined on the basis of annual flow at Lees Ferry. The risk, in terms of return period, of the drought scenarios developed, is assessed using stochastic models.     

MUNICIPAL WATER USE AND WATER RATES DRIVEN BY SEVERE DROUGHT: A CASE STUDY1

ABSTRACT: This paper synthesizes and interprets data pertaining to the evolution of average water revenue, water use, and the average cost of water supply in the City of Santa Barbara, California, from 1986 to 1996, a period which included one of the most devastating droughts in California this century. The 1987–1992 drought hit the study area particularly hard. The City of Santa Barbara was dependent exclusively on local sources for its water supply. That made it vulnerable as the regional climate is prone to extreme variability and recurrent droughts. The 1986–1992 drought provided a rare opportunity to assess the sensitivity of municipal water use to pricing, conservation, and other water management measures under extreme drought conditions. Our analysis indicates that the average cost of water rose more than three-fold in real terms from 1986 to 1996, while the gap between the average cost of supply and the average revenue per unit of water (= 100 cubic feet) rose in real terms from $0.14 in 1986 to $ 0.75 in 1996. The rise of $3.08 in the average cost of supplying one unit of water between 1986 and 1996 measures the cost of hedging drought risk in the study area. Water use dropped 46 percent at the height of the drought relative to pro-drought water use, and remains at 61 percent of the pre-drought level. The data derived from the 1987–1992 California drought are unique and valuable insofar as shedding light on drought/water demand adaptive interactions. The experience garnered on drought management during that unique period points to the possibilities available for future water management in the Arid West where dwindling water supplies and burgeoning populations are facts that we must deal with.     

A Statistical Sediment Yield Prediction Model Incorporating the Effect of Fires and Subsequent Storm Events1

Abstract: Alluvial fans are continuously being developed for residential, industrial, commercial, and agricultural uses in southern California. Development and alteration of alluvial fans need to consider the possibility of mud and debris flows from upstream mountain watersheds affected by fires. Accurate prediction of sediment yield (or hyper‐concentrated sediment yield) is essential for the design, operation, and maintenance of debris basins to safeguard properly the general populace. This paper presents a model for the prediction of sediment yields that result from a combination of fire and subsequent storm events. The watersheds used in this analysis are located in the foothills of the San Gabriel Mountains in southern California. A multiple regression analysis is first utilized to establish a fundamental statistical relationship for sediment yield as a function of relief ratio, drainage area, maximum 1‐h rainfall intensity and fire factor using 45 years of data (1938‐1983). In addition, a method for multi‐sequence sediment yield prediction under fire conditions was developed and calibrated using 17 years of sediment yield, fire, and precipitation data for the period 1984‐2000. After calibration, this model was verified by applying it to provide a prediction of the sediment yields for the 2001‐2002 fire events in southern California. The findings indicate a strong correlation between the estimated and measured sediment yields. The proposed method for sequence sediment yield prediction following fire events can be a useful tool to schedule cleanout operations for debris basins and to develop an emergency response strategy for the southern California region where plentiful sediment supplies exist and frequent fires occur.     

SOCIAL IMPLICATIONS OF SEVERE SUSTAINED DROUGHT CASE STUDIES IN CALIFORNIA AND COLORADO1

ABSTRACT: Survey data collected in the San Joaquin Valley of southern California and the Grand Valley of western Colorado reveal that residents of both areas believe that a severe sustained drought is likely to occur within the next 20–25 years and that their communities would be seriously impacted by such an event. Although a severe sustained drought affecting the Colorado River Basin would cause major economic and social disruptions in these and other communities, residents express little support for water management alternatives that would require significant shifts in economic development activities or in water use and allocation patterns. In particular, residents of these areas express little support for strategies such as construction and growth moratoriums, mandatory water conservation programs, water transfers from low-to high-population areas, water marketing, or reallocations of water from agricultural to municipal/industrial uses. This rejection of water management strategies that would require a departure from “business as usual” with respect to water use and allocations severely restricts the capacity of these and similar communities to respond effectively should a severe sustained drought occur.