The impact of climate change and its uncertainty on carbon storage in Switzerland

Projected future climate change will alter carbon storage in forests, which is of pivotal importance for the national carbon balance of most countries. Yet, national-scale assessments are largely lacking. We evaluated climate impacts on vegetation and soil carbon storage for Swiss forests using a dynamic vegetation model. We considered three novel climate scenarios, each featuring a quantification of the inherent uncertainty of the underlying climate models. We evaluated which regions of Switzerland would benefit or lose in terms of carbon storage under different climates, and which abiotic factors determine these patterns. The simulation results showed that the prospective carbon storage ability of forests depends on the current climate, the severity of the change, and the time required for new species to establish. Regions already prone to drought and heat waves under current climate will likely experience a decrease in carbon stocks under prospective ‘extreme’ climate change, while carbon storage in forests close to the upper treeline will increase markedly. Interestingly, when climate change is severe, species shifts can result in increases in carbon stocks, but when there is only slight climate change, climate conditions may reduce growth of extant species while not allowing for species shifts, thus leading to decreases in carbon stocks.     

长江上游干旱灾害分析及防灾减灾措施

分析了长江上游历年干旱灾害发生的频率、危害程度和演变趋势。长江上游受太平洋高压和地形的影响，造成四川盆地西部和黔西北的春旱、盆东伏旱，盆中黔东北旱伏连旱，以及金沙江与大渡河的干热旱型。干旱的危害程度既受天气背景的影响，又与人类活动方式密切相关，异常的天气过程只有在人口密集，生产发达的地区才能形成显著的灾害，从近三百年的水文气象条件看，洪水发生略有加强，而干旱则略有减弱。但是近代工农业高速发展，人口     

三峡库区乔木林生物量和碳储量的估算

以三峡库区为研究地点,建立库区优势树种立木生物量模型,并测定乔木含碳系数,结合库区第7次和第8次森林资源连续清查数据,估算了整个三峡库区乔木林的生物量和碳储量。研究结果表明:(1)整个库区乔木林生物量和碳储量第7次调查为12 583×104t和6 471×104t,单位面积生物量75.70t/hm2,碳密度38.93t/hm2,第8次调查为14 253×104t和7 396×104t,单位面积生物量77.46t/hm2,碳密度40.20t/hm2。可见,这5a中,三峡库区生物量和碳储量都有所增加。(2)对于不同森林植被类型来说,松类的生物量和碳储量都显著高于其他类型,分别占三峡库区生物量和碳储量的40%和50%。(3)三峡库区森林植被生物量和碳储量随龄级增大先增大后减少,在中龄林时达到最大,比较两次调查的生物量和碳储量,森林植被主要以幼林龄和中龄林占优。(4)两次调查显示三峡库区森林植被生物量和碳储量主要分布在天然林中,对于碳汇起到主要作用,同时,人工林所占的比例有所提高,其碳汇能力也逐步提高。     

Quantifying disturbance effects on vegetation carbon pools in mountain forests based on historical data

Although the terrestrial carbon budget is of key importance for atmospheric CO₂ concentrations, little is known on the effects of management and natural disturbances on historical carbon stocks at the regional scale. We reconstruct the dynamics of vegetation carbon stocks and flows in forests across the past 100 years for a valley in the eastern Swiss Prealps using quantitative and qualitative information from forest management plans. The excellent quality of the historical information makes it possible to link dynamics in growing stocks with high-resolution time series for natural and anthropogenic disturbances. The results of the historical reconstruction are compared with modelled potential natural vegetation. Forest carbon stock at the beginning of the twentieth century was substantially reduced compared to natural conditions as a result of large scale clearcutting lasting until the late nineteenth century. Recovery of the forests from this unsustainable exploitation and systematic forest management were the main drivers of a strong carbon accumulation during almost the entire twentieth century. In the 1990s two major storm events and subsequent bark beetle infestations significantly reduced stocks back to the levels of the mid-twentieth century. The future potential for further carbon accumulation was found to be strongly limited, as the potential for further forest expansion in this valley is low and forest properties seem to approach equilibrium with the natural disturbance regime. We conclude that consistent long-term observations of carbon stocks and their changes provide rich information on the historical range of variability of forest ecosystems. Such historical information improves our ability to assess future changes in carbon stocks. Further, the information is vital for better parameterization and initialization of dynamic regional scale vegetation models and it provides important background for appropriate management decisions.     

Dependence on forest resources and tropical deforestation in Ghana

In Ghana, forests provide many products on which the local population subsists. However, these resources are depleting due to a variety of factors including agricultural expansion and over-exploitation of forest resources. This paper presents an analysis of the level of local dependence on forest resources and its implications for forest management in Ghana. The paper also outlines the causes of continuing deforestation in the studied region from the perspective of the local residents and discusses what role they could play in addressing the problem. The aim is to share more light on the current causes of deforestation and make suggestions for improved community-based forest management practices that could help to reduce deforestation. Primary data was collected through personal interviews and focus group discussions with 431 household heads randomly selected from three Forest Districts in Ghana. The survey showed that income from agriculture constituted 60% of the average total rural household income. Forest income provided 38% of total household income, and off-farm income 2%. The four most highly ranked causes of deforestation are poverty-driven agriculture, lack of alternative rural wage employment other than farming, household population levels, and conflict in traditional land practices. This shows a shift in the view of local people who in the past were quick to blame logging companies and government policies for deforestation. The majority of the respondents depended on wild animals like snail, bush meat, wild honey and wild and cultivated vegetables. Given the reasons for deforestation, much thought needs to go into agroforestry practices (e.g. snail farming, bee keeping, fish farming, and vegetable production) in efforts to reduce deforestation, which are currently less promoted. Readers should send their comments on this paper to: BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.     

Grazing,forest density,and carbon storage: towards a more sustainable land use in Caatinga dry forests of Brazil

Grazing is the main land use in semi-arid regions of the world, and sustainable management practices are urgently needed to prevent their degradation. However, how different grazing intensities affect forest density and ecosystem functions is often not sufficiently understood to allow for management adaptations that safeguard the ecosystems and their functions in the long run. We assessed the aboveground carbon stocks and plant densities along a grazing gradient in the semi-arid seasonally dry tropical forest of north-eastern Brazil (Caatinga). On 45 study plots, we analysed the aboveground carbon stocks of the vegetation and determined forest density and recruitment as well as the population structure of the most abundant tree species. Grazing intensity was accounted for based on the weight of livestock droppings and classified as low, intermediate, or high. Mean aboveground carbon stock was 15.74?±?1.92 Mg ha^?1 with trees and shrubs accounting for 89% of the total amount. Grazing at high intensities significantly reduced aboveground carbon stocks of herbs but not of other plant functional types. Instead, aboveground carbon stocks of trees and shrubs were negatively related to altitude above sea level, which is a proxy for reduced water availability along with lower anthropogenic impact. The population structure of the most common tree species was characterised by abundant recruitment, irrespective of grazing, whereas the recruitment of less frequent woody species was negatively affected by grazing. Overall, our data imply that grazing and forage management need to be adapted, including the reduction of free-roaming livestock and storage of fodder, to maintain carbon storage and forest density.     

Estimation of Soil Carbon Gains Upon Improved Management within Croplands and Grasslands of Africa

Many agro(eco)systems in Africa have been degraded as a result of past disturbances, including deforestation, overgrazing, and over exploitation. These systems can be managed to reduce carbon emissions and increase carbon sinks in vegetation and soil. The scope for soil organic carbon gains from improved management and restoration within degraded and non-degraded croplands and grasslands in Africa is estimated at 20–43 Tg C year^?1, assuming that 'best' management practices can be introduced on 20% of croplands and 10% of grasslands. Under the assumption that new steady state levels will be reached after 25 years of sustained management, this would correspond with a mitigation potential of 4–9% of annual CO₂ emissions in Africa. The mechanisms that are being put in place to implement the Kyoto Protocol - through C emission trading - and prevailing agricultural policies will largely determine whether farmers can engage in activities that enhance C sequestration in Africa. Mitigation of climate change by increased carbon sequestration in the soil appears particularly useful when addressed in combination with other pressing regional challenges that affect the livelihood of the people, such as combating land degradation and ensuring food security, while at the same time curtailing global anthropogenic emissions.     

Regional carbon cycle responses to 25 years of variation in climate and disturbance in the US Pacific Northwest

Variation in climate, disturbance regime, and forest management strongly influence terrestrial carbon sources and sinks. Spatially distributed, process-based, carbon cycle simulation models provide a means to integrate information on these various influences to estimate carbon pools and flux over large domains. Here we apply the Biome-BGC model over the four-state Northwest US region for the interval from 1986 to 2010. Landsat data were used to characterize disturbances, and forest inventory data were used to parameterize the model. The overall disturbance rate on forest land across the region was 0.8 % year^?1, with 49 % as harvests, 28 % as fire, and 23 % as pest/pathogen. Net ecosystem production (NEP) for the 2006–2010 interval on forestland was predominantly positive (a carbon sink) throughout the region, with maximum values in the Coast Range, intermediate values in the Cascade Mountains, and relatively low values in the Inland Rocky Mountain ecoregions. Localized negative NEPs were mostly associated with recent disturbances. There was large interannual variation in regional NEP, with notably low values across the region in 2003, which was also the warmest year in the interval. The recent (2006–2010) net ecosystem carbon balance (NECB) was positive for the region (14.4 TgC year^?1). Despite a lower area-weighted mean NECB, public forestland contributed a larger proportion to the total NECB because of its larger area. Aggregated forest inventory data and inversion modeling are beginning to provide opportunities for evaluating model-simulated regional carbon stocks and fluxes.     

Long-term dynamics of terrestrial carbon stocks in Austria: a comprehensive assessment of the time period from 1830 to 2000

This article presents a comprehensive data set on Austria’s terrestrial carbon stocks from the beginnings of industrialization in the year 1830 to the present. It is based on extensive historical and recent land use and forestry data derived from primary sources (cadastral surveys) for the early nineteenth century, official statistics available for later parts of the nineteenth century as well as the twentieth century, and forest inventory data covering the second half of the twentieth century. Total carbon stocks—i.e. aboveground and belowground standing crop and soil organic carbon—are calculated for the entire period and compared to those of potential vegetation. Results suggest that carbon stocks were roughly constant from 1830 to 1880 and have grown considerably from 1880 to 2000, implying that Austria’s vegetation has acted as a carbon sink since the late nineteenth century. Carbon stocks increased by 20% from approximately 1.0 GtC in 1830 and 1880 to approximately 1.2 GtC in the year 2000, a value still much lower than the amount of carbon terrestrial ecosystems are expected to contain in the absence of land use: According to calculations presented in this article, potential vegetation would contain some 2.0 GtC or 162% of the present terrestrial carbon stock, suggesting that the recent carbon sink results from a recovery of biota from intensive use in the past. These findings are in line with the forest transition hypothesis which claims that forest areas are growing in industrialized countries. Growth in forest area and rising carbon stocks per unit area of forests both contribute to the carbon sink. We discuss the hypothesis that the carbon sink is mainly caused by the shift from area-dependent energy sources (biomass) in agrarian societies to the largely area-independent energy system of industrial societies based above all on fossil fuels.     

Accounting for carbon stocks in models of land-use change: an application to Southern Yucatan

To assess the impact of land-use change on carbon stocks, we apply a new methodology, linking ecological and economic modeling, to southern Yucatan, Mexico. A spatial econometric multinomial logit model of ten land-cover classes is estimated (four primary forest categories, three secondary growth categories, an invasive species, and two agricultural land-cover categories), using satellite data on land cover, linked with census socioeconomic data and other biophysical spatial data from 2000. The analysis is novel in that it is the first attempt to link detailed satellite data on land use, with on-the-ground estimates of carbon stocks in a spatial econometric model of land use. The estimated multinomial logit model is then used with two scenarios of future economic growth (“low growth” and “high growth” changes in population, agricultural land use, market access, and education levels) in the region to predict land-cover changes resulting from the economic growth. The per hectare carbon (C) stocks in each land-cover class are derived from previously published estimates of biomass from field sampling across the study region. We consider aboveground-only, aboveground plus soil, transient and non-transient pools of carbon. These estimates are scaled up to the total area in each class according to the predictions of the model baseline and the two development scenarios. Subsequently, the changes in carbon stocks resulting from the predicted land-cover changes are calculated. Under the low growth scenario, carbon stocks declined by 5%; under the high growth scenario, losses were 12%. Including soil C, the proportional losses were lower, but the absolute amount lost was more than double (to 6 Tg C under the low and almost 15 Tg C under the high-growth scenario). This methodology could be further developed for applications in global change policy, such as payments for environmental services (PES) or reduction in emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD).     

三峡库区森林植被恢复与可持续经营研究

系统的野外调查数据和历史资料分析结果表明,三峡库区森林植被在空间上发展不均匀,无明显垂直分带,且分布分散,人为干扰严重。目前,在70多个植被类型中,森林类型占25个,江岸两侧海拔800 m以下地区森林已经很少。森林类型中,马尾松、柏木林的分布面积最大,并在许多疏林中成为主要树种,主要是飞播或人工种植。库区大于25°的坡耕地占耕地面积的17.5％。库区薪炭林仅能满足农村用能总需求量的10.78％。不合理的土地利用方式和对森林的不合理砍伐导致脆弱的土壤系统和森林生态系统的严重退化、生产力下降和严重的水土流失。库区土壤年侵蚀量达到2.9亿t。三峡工程建设和移民安置对库区森林生态系统的压力和影响将是长期的。调查结果同时表明,库区植物生物多样性丰富,植物种类在5 032种以上,而且乡土树种多。分析认为,只要抓住三峡工程建设的契机,紧密结合国家天然林保护和退耕还林工程建设,充分利用良好的生物学基础,科学地封山育林,分带逐步恢复,同时,因地制宜,退耕还林,发展森林能源,建设多目标复合和多种模式并存的林业经营体系,发展经济,就能从根本上改善森林经营环境,实现森林恢复,形成合理布局的水库森林防护系统,促进三峡库区生态环境建设和可持续发展。     

Can timber and water resources be sustainably co-developed in south-eastern New South Wales, Australia?

In the south-east of New South Wales, Australia, forested catchments are largely relied upon to provide high-quality surface water at low cost to small regional communities. The forests in question are used for multiple purposes including timber production, which can result in conflicts and debate regarding the sustainability of timber and water resources being co-developed. A case study is examined where a logging operation will occur on 3.5% of the Myrtle Creek catchment that is used to supply water to the small township of Wyndham. Modelling based on the water yield response of eucalypt forests to disturbance predicts that during the first four years post-harvest, total streamflows will be increased under the ‘2010 logging’ scenario, with a maximum increase of 2.6% within the first two years. Streamflows will then likely decrease compared to the ‘no logging’ scenario and will continue to do so until regrowth reaches 28 years of age with a maximum 1.4% decrease predicted. Streamflows under both scenarios will continue to increase over time as water yield has been suppressed by forest regeneration following extensive wildfires and logging that occurred from the 1960s to 1980s. It is concluded that timber harvesting, if limited spatially and temporally, can occur without compromising catchment values and may contribute to improved forest heterogeneity and resilience. However, in the face of a changing climate and an increased likelihood of catastrophic high intensity wildfires, the future sustainability of undercapitalised small town water supplies reliant on a single water source is questionable.     

Land change in the southern Yucatán: case studies in land change science

The southern Yucatán Peninsular Region project was designed from the outset as an integrative, multidisciplinary program of study examining tropical deforestation in the largest track of seasonal tropical forest remaining in Mexico and in which smallholder agriculture and a major biosphere reserve are juxtaposed in regard to land uses and covers. Treating land as a coupled human–environment system, the project joins the remote sensing, environmental, social, and modeling sciences in a way that is now recognized as land change science. This paper introduces the project, the study region, and six papers that explore some of the coupled system dynamics in the region. These include the sub-regional variation in deforestation, the pan-regional adoption or anticipation of cattle ranching, the emergence of divergent household agricultural and overall livelihood strategies, the roles of cultural and household histories in agricultural livelihood choices, the temporal intensification of swidden cultivation and its implications for forest species, and carbon stocks across cultivation units, including a new econometric modeling application to forecast changes in these stocks.     

Brazil’s Amazonian forest carbon: the key to Southern Amazonia’s significance for global climate

Southern Amazonia is the first region of Brazil’s Amazon area to be exposed to intensive conversion to agriculture and ranching. This conversion emits greenhouse gases from the carbon stock in the biomass and soils of the previous vegetation. Quantifying these carbon stocks is the first step in quantifying the impact on global warming from this conversion. This review is limited to information on Brazilian Amazonia’s carbon stocks. It indicates large amounts of carbon at risk of emission in both biomass and soils, as well as considerable uncertainty in estimates. Reducing uncertainty is a priority for research but the existence of uncertainty must not be used as an excuse for delaying measures to contain deforestation. The magnitude of carbon stocks is proportional to greenhouse gas emissions per hectare of deforestation and consequently to impact on global climate.

     

长江上游洪涝灾害分析及防灾减灾措施

分析了长江上游洪水和渍涝灾害的发生频率、危害程度和演变趋势。在季风环流和山区地形抬升作用下，形成长江上游４个年雨量大于２０００ｍｍ的暴雨中心，使盆周和乌江上游成为雨洪多发区，各大江河汇合口普遍存在洪泛之害。夏季山洪、秋季雨涝、沿江洪水淹没和山区泥石流等水害频繁，且灾害的发生频率和造成的损失有继续增大的趋势，通过对历史灾情的分析，提出了洪涝频率和面积分布。洪涝灾害的危害程度既受天气异常的影响，又与人类活动密切相关。长江上游的防洪抗灾应采取因地制宜、综合治理的方针，即结合大型水库控制、水土保持、农田水利、灾害预警和社会保险等措施消减灾害，其中尤以长江上游防护林和大江河干流水库枢纽作用巨大，可起到削蓄洪水、涵养水源、减少侵蚀和改善生态环境条件的综合功效，是带根本性的流域治理措施。     

Attributing changes in land cover using independent disturbance datasets: a case study of the Yucatan Peninsula,Mexico

Detailed observations of natural and anthropogenic disturbance events that impact forest structure and the distribution of carbon are essential to estimate changes in terrestrial carbon pools and the associated emissions and removals of greenhouse gasses. Recent advances in remote sensing approaches have resulted in annual and decadal estimates of land-cover change derived from observations using broad-scale moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) 250 m–1 km imagery. These land-use change estimates, however, are often not attributed directly to a cause or activity and are not well validated, especially in tropical areas. Knowledge of the type of disturbance that caused the observed land-cover changes is important, however, for the quantification of the associated impacts on ecosystem carbon stocks and fluxes. In this paper, we provide estimates of the amount of forest land-cover change in a Mexican forested region and propose an approach for attributing the cause of the observed changes to the underlying disturbance driver. To do so, we collate geospatial and remote sensing data from a variety of sources to summarize statistics about the major disturbances within the Yucatan Peninsula, an “early action” region for the reduction of emissions from deforestation and degradation, from 2005 to 2010. We combine the datasets to develop rules to estimate the likely disturbances that caused the observed land-cover changes based on their spatially explicit location. Finally, we compare our observed disturbance rates to those detected using classified land-cover data derived from MODIS.     

The United States Department of Energy's Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnerships Program Validation Phase

This paper reviews the Validation Phase (Phase II) of the Department of Energy's Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnerships initiative. In 2003, the U.S. Department of Energy created a nationwide network of seven Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnerships (RCSP) to help determine and implement the technology, infrastructure, and regulations most appropriate to promote carbon sequestration in different regions of the nation. The objectives of the Characterization Phase (Phase I) were to characterize the geologic and terrestrial opportunities for carbon sequestration; to identify CO(2) point sources within the territories of the individual partnerships; to assess the transportation infrastructure needed for future deployment; to evaluate CO(2) capture technologies for existing and future power plants; and to identify the most promising sequestration opportunities that would need to be validated through a series of field projects. The Characterization Phase was highly successful, with the following achievements: established a national network of companies and professionals working to support sequestration deployment; created regional and national carbon sequestration atlases for the United States and portions of Canada; evaluated available and developing technologies for the capture of CO(2) from point sources; developed an improved understanding of the permitting requirements that future sequestration activities will need to address as well as defined the gap in permitting requirements for large scale deployment of these technologies; created a raised awareness of, and support for, carbon sequestration as a greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation option, both within industry and among the general public; identified the most promising carbon sequestration opportunities for future field tests; and established protocols for project implementation, accounting, and management. Economic evaluation was started and is continuing and will be a factor in project selection. During the Validation Phase, the seven regional partnerships will put the knowledge learned during the Characterization Phase into practice through field tests that will validate carbon sequestration technologies that are best suited to their respective regions of the country. These tests will verify technologies developed through DOE's core R&D effort and enable implementation of CO(2) sequestration on a large scale, should that become necessary. Pilot projects will have a site-specific focus to test technology; assess formation storage capacity and injectivity; validate and refine existing CO(2) formation models used to determine the transport and fate of CO(2) in the formation; demonstrate the integrity of geologic seals to contain CO(2); validate monitoring, mitigation, and verification (MMV) technologies; define project costs and compare costs of alternatives; assess potential operational and long-term storage risks; address regulatory requirements; and engage and evaluate public acceptance of sequestration technologies. Field validation tests involving both sequestration in geologic formations and terrestrial sequestration are being developed. The results from the Validation Phase will help to confirm the estimates made during the Characterization Phase and will be used to update the regional atlases and NatCarb. Answers to many questions about the effectiveness and safety of carbon sequestration technologies will be instrumental in planning for a Deployment Phase, in which large volume tests will be planned to further sequestration as an option that can mitigate GHG emissions in the United States.     

Building Institutions for Markets: Experiences and Lessons from China's Rural Forest Sector

Through the lens of institutional economics, this paper reviews the reform and development experience in China's rural forest sector and discusses lessons that can be learned by China and other countries. We find that the impacts of the reforms, characterized by changes in forest tenures and market settings, hinge on how they are implemented. If farmers are granted not only land use rights but also liberalized market access, as shown in the northern farm region and the production of non-timber forest products, the incentive structure will be improved, and thus forest production will grow and producers and consumers will benefit. If the reforms are implemented in such a way as to cause market control and distortions, as witnessed in the southern traditional timber production region, the incentive structure will improve little. The chances for production increase will thus be diminished, making it difficult for producers and consumers to enhance their welfare. While tenure arrangements have evolved across the country in the 1990s, timber production in the south remains subject to allowable quota, cutting permit, government procurement, and heavy taxation. We wonder what the land use and tree ownership rights mean without the right to access market freely and fairly, and how practical it is to substitute government efforts for private initiatives in a successful forestry program. The time has come for Chinese policymakers to address these problems.     

Dynamics of carbon balance components in fallow arable lands on the Valdai Upland

The dynamics of carbon pools in the live phytomass, necromass, and soil reservoirs have been analyzed in fallow arable lands of Novgorod oblast. The results show that the amounts of above- and belowground necromass increase with the age of fallows, while the dynamics of live phytomass have no distinct trend. Comparisons with archival data show that the stocks of soil organic carbon in the studied ecosystems have decreased by 1.39 t C/ha since 1983, which is equivalent to an annual loss of 0.03 t C/ha. The main factors accounting for changes in the carbon stocks of fallow soils are the initial organic carbon contents in topsoil, the intensity of agromeliorative measures taken during the period of agricultural land use, and carbon contents in soils of meadow communities typical for a given region (zone).     

Livelihood strategies in endemic livestock production systems in sub-humid zone of West Africa: trends,trade-offs and implications

Rural livelihoods in West Africa depend largely on livestock. The sub-humid and humid zones of the region, however, are highly affected by the tsetse flies, vector of trypanosomosis, by severely limiting livestock production and livelihood options. Endemic ruminant livestock breeds are trypanotolerant, but perceived as inferior compared to other breeds in terms of productivity. The paper shows trends of relative decline in endemic population as a result of increased crossbreeding, largely with zebu cattle and Sahelian sheep and goats, and considerable decline in habitat quality due to forest conversion, logging activities and bushfires. The trade-offs between livelihoods and income strategies and endemic ruminant and habitat conservation are captured by an understanding of the socio-economic conditions and potential drivers of breed choices and forest use within households and communities. The paper shows that livelihood analysis is an important step in understanding impacts and therefore responses to development projects and to ensure that the poorest categories are not excluded from development interventions.