Estimating Full IM240 Emissions from Partial Test Results: Evidence from Arizona

ABSTRACT

The expense and inconvenience of enhanced-vehicle-emissions testing using the full 240-second dynamometer test has led states to search for ways to shorten the test process. In fact, all states that currently use the IM240 allow some type of fast-pass, usually as early in the test as second 31, and Arizona has allowed vehicles to fast-fail after second 93. While these shorter tests save states millions of dollars in inspection lanes and driver costs, there is a loss of information since test results are no longer comparable across vehicles. This paper presents a methodology for estimating full 240-second results from partial-test results for three pollutants: HC, CO, and NO_x. If states can convert all tests to consistent IM240 readings, they will be able to better characterize fleet emissions and to evaluate the impact of inspection and maintenance and other programs on emissions over time. Using a random sample of vehicles in Arizona which received full 240-second tests, we use regression analysis to estimate the relationship between emissions at second 240 and emissions at earlier seconds in the test. We examine the influence of other variables such as age, model-year group, and the pollution level itself on this relationship. We also use the estimated coefficients in several applications. First, we try to shed light on the frequent assertion that the results of the dynamometer test provide guidance for vehicle repair of failing vehicles. Using a probit analysis, we find that the probability that a failing vehicle will pass the test on the first retest is greater the longer the test has progressed. Second, we test the accuracy of our estimates for forecasting fleet emissions from partial-test emissions results in Arizona. We find forecasted fleet average emissions to be very close to the actual fleet averages for light-duty vehicles, but not quite as good for trucks, particularly when NO_x emissions are forecast.     

Characterization of In-Use Light-Duty Gasoline Vehicle Emissions by Remote Sensing in Beijing: Impact of Recent Control Measures

Abstract

China’s national government and Beijing city authorities have adopted additional control measures to reduce the negative impact of vehicle emissions on Beijing’s air quality. An evaluation of the effectiveness of these measures may provide guidance for future vehicle emission control strategy development. In-use emissions from light-duty gasoline vehicles (LDGVs) were investigated at five sites in Beijing with remote sensing instrumentation. Distance-based mass emission factors were derived with fuel consumption modeled on real world data. The results show that the recently implemented aggressive control strategies are significantly reducing the emissions of on-road vehicles. Older vehicles are contributing substantially to the total fleet emissions. An earlier program to retrofit pre-Euro cars with three-way catalysts produced little emission reduction. The impact of model year and driving conditions on the average mass emission factors indicates that the durability of vehicles emission controls may be inadequate in Beijing.     

A Multipurpose Flare Stack for Control of Chemical Process Wastes

Abstract

To test the effectiveness of California’s vehicle inspection/ maintenance (I/M) program, exclusive of vehicle-owner intervention, a fleet of more than 1,100 vehicles that previously had failed California’s Smog Check test were sent to randomly selected Smog Check stations in the Los Angeles area for covert inspections and repairs. The two-speed idle test was used for repairs. For those vehicles that were repaired at the first inspection, their FTP emission reductions were 25%, 14%, and 11% for hydrocarbons (HC), carbon monoxide (CO), and nitrogen oxides (NO_x), respectively, although emissions testing for NO_x was not performed at the Smog Check stations. Idle HC and CO emissions increased for 35% and 43% of the vehicles, respectively, after repairs. This data set shows that most vehicles that fail the Smog Check inspection are only marginal emitters, with 61% and 44% of the total potential for HC and CO emission reductions, respectively, coming from only 10% of the vehicles that currently fail the inspection. When the vehicles were rank-ordered by idle emissions from dirtiest to cleanest, emission reduction costs for the highest-emitting 10% of the fleet averaged $l,100/ton and $250/ton for HC and CO, respectively, attributing all the costs to each pollutant exclusively. For the remaining vehicles, costs increased dramatically.     

Real-world vehicle emissions: a summary of the Ninth Coordinating Research Council On-Road Vehicle Emissions Workshop

In April 1999, the Coordinating Research Council sponsored a workshop focusing on our understanding of real-world emissions from motor vehicles. This summary presents the latest information on in-use light- and heavy-duty vehicle tailpipe and evaporative emissions, the effects of fuels on emissions, field programs designed to understand the contribution of mobile sources to emission inventories, efforts to evaluate and improve mobile source emission models, progress of vehicle inspection/maintenance programs, and topics for future research. While significant progress has been made in understanding in-use vehicle emissions, further improvements are necessary. Moreover, the impact of current and future changes in emission control technologies and control programs will have to be monitored for effectiveness and incorporated into the emission factor models.     

Characterization of in-use light-duty gasoline vehicle emissions by remote sensing in Beijing: impact of recent control measures

China's national government and Beijing city authorities have adopted additional control measures to reduce the negative impact of vehicle emissions on Beijing's air quality. An evaluation of the effectiveness of these measures may provide guidance for future vehicle emission control strategy development. In-use emissions from light-duty gasoline vehicles (LDGVs) were investigated at five sites in Beijing with remote sensing instrumentation. Distance-based mass emission factors were derived with fuel consumption modeled on real world data. The results show that the recently implemented aggressive control strategies are significantly reducing the emissions of on-road vehicles. Older vehicles are contributing substantially to the total fleet emissions. An earlier program to retrofit pre-Euro cars with three-way catalysts produced little emission reduction. The impact of model year and driving conditions on the average mass emission factors indicates that the durability of vehicles emission controls may be inadequate in Beijing.     

An Analysis of Michigan and California CO Remote Sensing Measurements

Abstract

Remote sensing measurements of CO emissions from on-road vehicles were made in California in 1991 and in Michigan in 1992. It was determined that both fleets had a small linear increase in the high emitter frequency (vehicles emitting more than 4% CO) as a function of vehicle age for 1986 and newer model vehicles. Although high emitting vehicles were only a small minority of the fleet, they had a dominant impact on the mean CO and total CO emitted by the fleet. In Michigan, the highest emitting 5% of passenger cars generated 45% of the CO from cars. In California, the highest emitting 5% of passenger cars generated 38% of the CO from cars. There was a high correlation between the mean CO emitted by each model year of vehicle and the frequency of high emitting vehicles within the model year for both the Michigan and California fleets. The frequency of high emitters within any model year had no obvious relation to that model year’s certification standards. The high emitter frequencies for vehicles less than nine years old were very similar for the California and Michigan fleets. An increase in the high emitter frequency in the ten-year-old and older Michigan passenger car fleet (relative to the California passenger car fleet), suggests, but does not conclusively demonstrate, that the rate of high emitters in Michigan and California is reduced by the inspection and maintenance (I/M) programs.     

Estimated Validity and Reliability of On-Board Diagnostics for Older Vehicles: Comparison with Remote Sensing Observations

ABSTRACT

Based on requirements under the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990, most state vehicle inspection and maintenance (I/M) programs have, since 2002, replaced the tailpipe emission testing with the on-board diagnostic (OBD) II testing for 1996 model and newer vehicles. This test relies on the OBD II system to give the pass or fail result, depending on certain conditions that might cause the vehicle to emit pollution 1.5 times higher than the regulated standard. The OBD II system is a computer and sensors installed in the vehicle to monitor the emission control units and signal if there is any malfunction. As a vehicle ages, its engine, pollution control units, and OBD II system deteriorate. Because the OBD II system's durability directly influences the test outcome, it is important to examine the fleetwide trend in the OBD II test results in comparison with an alternative measure of identifying high emitting vehicles. This study investigates whether the validity and reliability of the OBD II test is related to the age of the OBD II system installed in the fleet. Using Atlanta's I/M testing records and remote sensing device (RSD) data collected during 2002–2005, this research establishes the convergent validity and interobserver reliability criteria for the OBD II test based on on-road emissions measured by RSDs. The study results show that older vehicles exhibit significantly lower RSD–OBD II outcome agreement than newer vehicles. This suggests that the validity and reliability of the OBD II test may decline in the older vehicle fleets. Explanations and possible confounding factors for these findings are discussed.

IMPLICATIONS This research demonstrates the potential worsening validity and reliability of the on-board diagnostic (OBD) II test in old vehicles. If the main source of low validity and reliability comes from the OBD II system malfunction, we expect this malfunctioning OBD II fleet will continue to grow in the future. If unchecked, the deterioration of OBD II system may impair the effort of the inspection and maintenance (I/M) program to identify high-emitting vehicles and the ultimate objective of reducing the air pollution from automobiles. This result is especially important in a regulatory context where technological and emissions standards dominate environmental policy and yet little attention is paid to the possible degradation of environmental monitors themselves.     

High-mileage study of on-board diagnostic emissions

The 1990 Clean Air Act amendments require the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to set guidelines for states to follow in designing and running vehicle inspection and maintenance (I/M) programs. Included in this charge was a requirement to implement an on-board diagnostic (OBD) test for both basic and enhanced I/M programs. This paper provides the results to date of an ongoing EPA study undertaken to assess the durability of the OBD system as vehicles age and as mileage is accrued. The primary results of this effort indicate the points described below. First, the majority of high-mileage vehicles tested had emission levels within their certification limits, and their malfunction indicator light (MIL) was not illuminated, indicating that the systems are capable of working throughout the life of a vehicle. Second, OBD provides better air quality benefits than an IM240 test (using the federal test procedure [FTP] as the benchmark comparison). This statement is based on greater emissions reductions from OBD-directed repairs than reductions associated with IM240-identified repairs. In general, the benefits of repairing the OBD fails were smaller, but the aggregate benefits were greater, indicating that OBD tests find both the high-emitting and a number of marginally high-emitting vehicles without false failures that can occur with any tailpipe test. Third, vehicles that truly had high-tailpipe emissions as confirmed by laboratory IM240 and FTP testing also had illuminated MILs at a statistically significant level. Last, field data from state programs have demonstrated MIL illumination rates comparable with those seen in this work, suggesting that the vehicles sampled in this study were representative of the larger fleet. Nonetheless, it is important to continue the testing of high-mileage OBD vehicles into the foreseeable future to ensure that the systems are operating correctly as the fleet ages and as changes in emission certification levels take effect.     

High-Mileage Study of On-Board Diagnostic Emissions

Abstract

The 1990 Clean Air Act amendments require the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to set guidelines for states to follow in designing and running vehicle inspection and maintenance (I/M) programs. Included in this charge was a requirement to implement an on‐board diagnostic (OBD) test for both basic and enhanced I/M programs. This paper provides the results to date of an ongoing EPA study undertaken to assess the durability of the OBD system as vehicles age and as mileage is accrued. The primary results of this effort indicate the points described below. First, the majority of high‐mileage vehicles tested had emission levels within their certification limits, and their malfunction indicator light (MIL) was not illuminated, indicating that the systems are capable of working throughout the life of a vehicle. Second, OBD provides better air quality benefits than an IM240 test (using the federal test procedure [FTP] as the benchmark comparison). This statement is based on greater emissions reductions from OBD‐directed repairs than reductions associated with IM240‐identified repairs. In general, the benefits of repairing the OBD fails were smaller, but the aggregate benefits were greater, indicating that OBD tests find both the high‐emitting and a number of marginally high‐emitting vehicles without false failures that can occur with any tailpipe test. Third, vehicles that truly had high‐tailpipe emissions as confirmed by laboratory IM240 and FTP testing also had illuminated MILs at a statistically significant level. Last, field data from state programs have demonstrated MIL illumination rates comparable with those seen in this work, suggesting that the vehicles sampled in this study were representative of the larger fleet. Nonetheless, it is important to continue the testing of high‐mileage OBD vehicles into the foreseeable future to ensure that the systems are operating correctly as the fleet ages and as changes in emission certification levels take effect.     

Real-World Vehicle Emissions: A Summary of the Ninth Coordinating Research Council On-Road Vehicle Emissions Workshop

ABSTRACT

In April 1999, the Coordinating Research Council sponsored a workshop focusing on our understanding of real-world emissions from motor vehicles. This summary presents the latest information on in-use light- and heavy-duty vehicle tailpipe and evaporative emissions, the effects of fuels on emissions, field programs designed to understand the contribution of mobile sources to emission inventories, efforts to evaluate and improve mobile source emission models, progress of vehicle inspection/ maintenance programs, and topics for future research. While significant progress has been made in understanding in-use vehicle emissions, further improvements are necessary. Moreover, the impact of current and future changes in emission control technologies and control programs will have to be monitored for effectiveness and incorporated into the emission factor models.     

Estimated validity and reliability of on-board diagnostics for older vehicles: comparison with remote sensing observations

Based on requirements under the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990, most state vehicle inspection and maintenance (I/M) programs have, since 2002, replaced the tailpipe emission testing with the on-board diagnostic (OBD) II testing for 1996 model and newer vehicles. This test relies on the OBD II system to give the pass or fail result, depending on certain conditions that might cause the vehicle to emit pollution 1.5 times higher than the regulated standard. The OBD II system is a computer and sensors installed in the vehicle to monitor the emission control units and signal if there is any malfunction. As a vehicle ages, its engine, pollution control units, and OBD II system deteriorate. Because the OBD II system's durability directly influences the test outcome, it is important to examine the fleetwide trend in the OBD II test results in comparison with an alternative measure of identifying high emitting vehicles. This study investigates whether the validity and reliability of the OBD II test is related to the age of the OBD II system installed in the fleet. Using Atlanta's I/M testing records and remote sensing device (RSD) data collected during 2002-2005, this research establishes the convergent validity and interobserver reliability criteria for the OBD II test based on on-road emissions measured by RSDs. The study results show that older vehicles exhibit significantly lower RSD-OBD II outcome agreement than newer vehicles. This suggests that the validity and reliability of the OBD II test may decline in the older vehicle fleets. Explanations and possible confounding factors for these findings are discussed.     

An Investigation of Idle Emissions Inspection and Maintenance at Altitude

Idle emissions inspection and maintenance was evaluated using a sample of 300 privately owned 1964 through 1973 model-year vehicles operating in the Denver metropolitan area. Ten privately owned stations, licensed by the State of Colorado to perform vehicle safety inspections, were utilized to conduct idle emissions inspection and subsequent maintenance of failed vehicles. Exhaust hydrocarbon (HC) and carbon monoxide (CO) reduction as measured by the 1975 Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) mass emission testing procedures was indicated to be 13% and 8% respectively at a 50 % rejection rate. The average maintenance cost to achieve the reduction was $11.32 per failed vehicle.

The adjustment and repair procedures provided to participating garages were sufficient to achieve significant emissions reduction and training provided to garage personnel was adequate. However, several problems were experienced with station personnel relative to data transmittal and inspection pass/fail limits. Problems were also experienced with respect to correlations between laboratory and garage-type analytical instrumentation.     

Development of a microscale emission factor model for particulate matter for predicting real-time motor vehicle emissions

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's National Exposure Research Laboratory is pursuing a project to improve the methodology for modeling human exposure to motor vehicle emissions. The overall project goal is to develop improved methods for modeling the source through the air pathway to human exposure in significant exposure microenvironments. Current particulate matter (PM) emission models, particle emission factor model (used in the United States, except California) and motor vehicle emission factor model (used in California only), are suitable only for county-scale modeling and emission inventories. There is a need to develop a site-specific real-time emission factor model for PM emissions to support human exposure studies near roadways. A microscale emission factor model for predicting site-specific real-time motor vehicle PM (MicroFacPM) emissions for total suspended PM, PM less than 10 microm aerodynamic diameter, and PM less than 2.5 microm aerodynamic diameter has been developed. The algorithm used to calculate emission factors in MicroFacPM is disaggregated, and emission factors are calculated from a real-time fleet, rather than from a fleet-wide average estimated by a vehicle-miles-traveled weighting of the emission factors for different vehicle classes. MicroFacPM requires input information necessary to characterize the site-specific real-time fleet being modeled. Other variables required include average vehicle speed, time and day of the year, ambient temperature, and relative humidity.     

Deriving fuel-based emission factor thresholds to interpret heavy-duty vehicle roadside plume measurements

Remote sensing devices have been used for decades to measure gaseous emissions from individual vehicles at the roadside. Systems have also been developed that entrain diluted exhaust and can also measure particulate matter (PM) emissions. In 2015, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) reported that 8% of in-field diesel particulate filters (DPF) on heavy-duty (HD) vehicles were malfunctioning and emitted about 70% of total diesel PM emissions from the DPF-equipped fleet. A new high-emitter problem in the heavy-duty vehicle fleet had emerged. Roadside exhaust plume measurements reflect a snapshot of real-world operation, typically lasting several seconds. In order to relate roadside plume measurements to laboratory emission tests, we analyzed carbon dioxide (CO₂), oxides of nitrogen (NO_X), and PM emissions collected from four HD vehicles during several driving cycles on a chassis dynamometer. We examined the fuel-based emission factors corresponding to possible exceedances of emission standards as a function of vehicle power. Our analysis suggests that a typical HD vehicle will exceed the model year (MY) 2010 emission standards (of 0.2 g NO_X/bhp-hr and 0.01 g PM/bhp-hr) by three times when fuel-based emission factors are 9.3 g NO_X/kg fuel and 0.11 g PM/kg using the roadside plume measurement approach. Reported limits correspond to 99% confidence levels, which were calculated using the detection uncertainty of emissions analyzers, accuracy of vehicle power calculations, and actual emissions variability of fixed operational parameters. The PM threshold was determined for acceleration events between 0.47 and 1.4 mph/sec only, and the NO_X threshold was derived from measurements where after-treatment temperature was above 200°C. Anticipating a growing interest in real-world driving emissions, widespread implementation of roadside exhaust plume measurements as a compliment to in-use vehicle programs may benefit from expanding this analysis to a larger sample of in-use HD vehicles.

Implications: Regulatory agencies, civil society, and the public at large have a growing interest in vehicle emission compliance in the real world. Leveraging roadside plume measurements to identify vehicles with malfunctioning emission control systems is emerging as a viable new and useful method to assess in-use performance. This work proposes fuel-based emission factor thresholds for PM and NOx that signify exceedances of emission standards on a work-specific basis by analyzing real-time emissions in the laboratory. These thresholds could be used to prescreen vehicles before roadside enforcement inspection or other inquiry, enhance and further develop emission inventories, and potentially develop new requirements for heavy-duty inspection and maintenance (I/M) programs, including but not limited to identifying vehicles for further testing.     

Evaluating inspection and maintenance programs: a policy-making framework

This article presents a new analysis approach to design and evaluate motor vehicle inspection and maintenance (I/M) programs. The new approach, called I/M-Design, uses real-world data to provide two resources not previously available: (1) a transparent framework to quantitatively illustrate the range of emission reductions available from I/M, and (2) a sensitivity analysis tool to evaluate how key variables affect I/M performance. In addition, the approach satisfies a policy-making information need--how to convey, in a logical and straightforward manner, the expected benefits from I/M without relying on modeling tools inaccessible to those outside the air quality field. The material presented in this article illustrates the new approach by estimating hydrocarbon (HC) emission reduction benefits available from enhanced I/M in southern California's South Coast Air Basin. I/M-Design estimates that enhanced I/M results in a 14-28% reduction in light-duty motor vehicle HC exhaust emissions; this estimate compares well to other California I/M program evaluations. Even more importantly, I/M-Design sensitivity analyses illustrate how I/M programs that implement stringent failure thresholds, motivate pre-test repair work, and improve repair effectiveness can provide emission reductions that substantially exceed the performance of existing programs.     

Sensitivity analysis and evaluation of microFacCO: a microscale motor vehicle emission factor model for CO emissions

This paper presents a sensitivity analysis of a microscale emission factor model (MicroFacCO) for predicting real-time site-specific motor vehicle CO emissions to input variables, as well as a limited field study evaluation of the model. The sensitivity analysis has shown that MicroFacCO emission estimates are very sensitive to vehicle fleet composition, speed, and ambient temperature. For the present U.S. traffic fleet, the CO emission rate (g/mi) is increased by more than 500% at 5 mph in comparison with a speed greater than 40 mph and by approximately 67% at ambient temperatures of 45 degrees F and > or = 95 degrees F in comparison with an ambient temperature of 75 degrees F. The input variable "emission failure standard rate" is more sensitive to estimating emission rates in the 1990s than in the 2000s. The estimation of emission rates is not very sensitive to relative humidity. MicroFacCO can also be applied to examine the contribution of emission rates per vehicle class and model year. The model evaluation is presented for tunnel studies at five locations. In general, this evaluation study found good agreement between the measured and the modeled emissions. These analyses and evaluations have identified the need for additional studies to update the high-speed (>35 mph) air conditioning (A/C) correction factor and to add effects due to road grades. MicroFacCO emission estimates are very sensitive to the emission standard failure rate. Therefore, the model performance can be greatly improved by using a local emission standard failure rate.     

Costs, emissions reductions, and vehicle repair: evidence from Arizona

The Arizona inspection and maintenance (I/M) program provides one of the first opportunities to examine the costs and effectiveness of vehicle emission repair. This paper examines various aspects of emission reductions, fuel economy improvements, and repair costs, drawing data from over 80,000 vehicles that failed the I/M test in Arizona between 1995 and the first half of 1996. We summarize the wealth of data on repair from the Arizona program and highlight its limitations. Because missing or incomplete cost information has been a serious shortcoming for the evaluation of I/M programs, we develop a method for estimating repair costs when they are not reported. We find surprising evidence that almost one quarter of all vehicles that take the I/M test are never observed to pass the test. Using a statistical analysis, we provide some information about the differences between the vehicles that pass and those that do not. Older, more polluting vehicles are much more likely never to pass the I/M test, and their expected repair costs are much higher than those for newer cars. This paper summarizes the evidence on costs and emission reductions in the Arizona program, comparing costs and emissions reductions between cars and trucks. Finally, we examine the potential for more cost-effective repair, first through an analysis of tightening I/M cut points and then by calculating the cost savings of achieving different emission reduction goals when the most cost-effective repairs are made first.     

Comment on “Mortality and Air Pollution: Revisited”

Abstract

Test-to-test variability has been observed by many current testing methods, including the Federal Test Procedure, the IM240 dynamometer test, the idle test common to many Inspection and Maintenance programs, and on-road remote sensing. The variability is attributable to the vehicle, not to the testing procedure. Because the vehicles are the dominant source of variability, the only way such vehicles can be reliably identified is through the use of multiple tests. The emissions variability increases with increasing average emissions, and it appears to be prevalent among the few newer technology vehicles with defective, but untampered, closed-loop emissions control systems (1981 and newer models). In one fleet the variable emitters constitute 2.2% to 4.8% of the vehicles and contribute 8.5% to 22% of the total carbon monoxide emissions. Scheduled I/M programs that fail to ensure repair of these vehicles allow a significant portion of vehicles with excess emissions to escape reduction measures.     

Prospects of inspection and maintenance of two-wheelers in India.

Two-wheeler vehicles in Delhi, India--roughly 70% of the total vehicle fleet--are responsible for a significant portion of the city's vehicle emissions and petroleum consumption. An inspection and maintenance (I/M) program that ensures vehicle emission control systems are well maintained can complement other emission reduction strategies. This paper presents the initial findings of extensive data collected on vehicle characteristics and emissions for two-wheeler vehicles operating in Delhi in a series of I/M camps conducted by the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers and various partners in late 1999. The analysis shows idle HC and CO emissions [measured in terms of parts per million (ppm) and volume % (vol %), respectively] in a slow declining trend with subsequent model years, reflecting tighter emission standards and more advanced emission technologies. The I/M benefits--3 vol % and 39% reduction in idle and mass CO, respectively; 40 vol % and 22% reduction in idle and mass HC, respectively; and a 10-20% increase in fuel efficiency--were higher than those reported in the literature. Although these benefits are substantial, any implementation strategy needs to consider cost-effectiveness. In the present study, only 10% of vehicles--contributing 22% of the total vehicle emissions--failed the idle CO standard. Fleet emissions data variability necessitates a large sample size to develop a baseline for the vehicle fleet, but a smaller, scientifically designed sample and better data collection quality could periodically track the benefits at future camps.