PULSE,progressive upper level set scan statistic for geospatial hotspot detection

This paper presents a scan statistic, progressive upper level set (PULSE) scan statistic, for geospatial hotspot detection and its software implementation. Like ULS, the PULSE scan statistic is based on the arbitrarily shaped scan window and can be adapted for a network setting. PULSE is a refinement of the upper level set (ULS) scan statistic. Like some other likelihood based scanning devices, the ULS scan statistic identifies maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) zones that tend to be ‘stringy’ and sprawling. Its search path increases possibility of inclusion of extraneous cells in its MLE zones and, to a smaller extent, of exclusion of cells that belong to a true hotspot from its MLE zone. The PULSE scan statistic achieves improvement over the ULS scan statistic in two ways. First, it begins its search for a most likely zone with a large population of candidate zones obtained by modifying the ULS tree structure and continues its search using a genetic algorithm. Secondly, to reduce chances of generating an MLE that is excessively stringy and that includes extraneous cells in the MLE zone, PULSE uses cardinality and compactness of zones along with their likelihoods as the fitness function in the genetic algorithm and uses several pertinent criteria including evenness of intra-zone cellular response ratios to determine the MLE zone. To reduce computation, Gumbel distribution of extreme values is used to determine the p-value of the MLE zone. Better results come at the cost of increased processing time. An evaluative performance study is presented.     

Upper level set scan statistic for detecting arbitrarily shaped hotspots

A declared need is around for geoinformatic surveillance statistical science and software infrastructure for spatial and spatiotemporal hotspot detection. Hotspot means something unusual, anomaly, aberration, outbreak, elevated cluster, critical resource area, etc. The declared need may be for monitoring, etiology, management, or early warning. The responsible factors may be natural, accidental, or intentional. This proof-of-concept paper suggests methods and tools for hotspot detection across geographic regions and across networks. The investigation proposes development of statistical methods and tools that have immediate potential for use in critical societal areas, such as public health and disease surveillance, ecosystem health, water resources and water services, transportation networks, persistent poverty typologies and trajectories, environmental justice, biosurveillance and biosecurity, among others. We introduce, for multidisciplinary use, an innovation of the health-area-popular circle-based spatial and spatiotemporal scan statistic. Our innovation employs the notion of an upper level set, and is accordingly called the upper level set scan statistic, pointing to a sophisticated analytical and computational system as the next generation of the present day popular SaTScan. Success of surveillance rests on potential elevated cluster detection capability. But the clusters can be of any shape, and cannot be captured only by circles. This is likely to give more of false alarms and more of false sense of security. What we need is capability to detect arbitrarily shaped clusters. The proposed upper level set scan statistic innovation is expected to fill this need     

Urban afforestation and infant health: Evidence from MillionTreesNYC

This paper examines the impact of urban afforestation on infant health outcomes by exploiting a quasi-experimental setting where one million new trees were planted in New York City (NYC), but not in counties surrounding NYC over the same time period. Using a near-universal birth record of NYC and surrounding counties over 2004–2015 and employing both the synthetic control method and a difference-in-differences model, we find that an approximately 20% increase in urban forest cover decreased prematurity and low birth weight among mothers in NYC by 2.1 and 0.24 percentage points, respectively, relative to similar mothers outside of NYC. The low birth weight finding is equivalent to getting a mother smoking two cigarettes a day during pregnancy to quit. An internal validity test suggests that changes in the composition of NYC mothers cannot explain the observed effects. Additionally, we find evidence that declines in PM_2.5 concentrations and increases in outdoor walks are potential causal mechanisms. Results suggest that urban afforestation may be able to complement existing policies aimed at improving infant health.     

Detection and delineation of critical areas using echelons and spatial scan statistics with synoptic cellular data

Geographical surveillance for hotspot detection and delineation has become an important area of investigation both in geospatial ecosystem health and in geospatial public health. In order to find critical areas based on synoptic cellular data, geospatial ecosystem health investigations apply recently discovered echelon tools. In order to find elevated rate areas based on synoptic cellular data, geospatial public health investigations apply recently discovered spatial scan statistic tools. The purpose of this paper is to conceptualize a joint role for these together in the spirit of a cross-disciplinary cross-fertilization to accomplish more effective and efficient geographical surveillance for hotspot detection and delineation, and early warning system.     

Environmental disaster,pollution and infant health: Evidence from the Deepwater Horizon oil spill

In 2010 the Gulf Coast experienced the largest oil spill affecting U.S. waters in history. Evaporating crude oil and dispersant chemicals can cause major health problems. This paper examines the impact of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill on air quality and infant health outcomes. Using U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) AirData, vital statistics data from National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), and a difference-in-difference methodology, we find that the oil spill of 2010 increased concentrations of PM2.5, NO2, SO2, and CO in affected coastal counties, increased incidence of low birth weight (<2500 g) and premature born infants (<37 weeks of gestation). Heterogeneity effects reveal more pronounced adverse infant health outcomes for black, Hispanic, less educated, unmarried, and younger mothers. Results are robust to a wide range of controls and robustness checks.     

Multicriteria prioritization and partial order in environmental sciences

The complexity of the present data-centric world finds its expression in the increasing number of multi-indicator systems. This has led to the development of multicriteria ranking systems based on partial orders. Order theory is a main pillar of structural mathematics. Partial orders help to reveal why an object of interest holds a certain ranking position and how much it is subject to change if a composite indicator is upgraded. Order theory helps to derive linear or weak orders without indicator weighting schemes. Hence, rankings obtained from decision support systems (DSS) which depend on many parameters beyond the data matrix can be checked and discrepancies can lead to examine the parameters of the DSS. Order theory helps discover association and implication structures derived from formal concept lattices. Association and implication networks among the attributes of the data matrix allow more insights into multi-indicator systems and lead to new hypotheses and motivate further research. Some new and innovative concepts, like separated subsets, antagonistic indicators, ranking stability fields are rendered. Separated subsets are the typical outcome of a partial order analysis; their identification leads to antagonistic indicators, which are responsible for the separatedness of object’s subsets. Numerical aggregation can be performed step-by-step and the question which values of a weight lead to an order inversion is of high interest. The concept of stability fields is one possible answer, discussed in this paper. After an outline of partial order theory some more specific theoretical results are shown, then we discuss the role of composite indicators in the light of partial order and give some examples of interesting applications of partial order. Finally examples are selected from real life case studies of watersheds, environmental performance evaluations, child well being, geographic and administrative regions and more.     

环境中丙烯酰胺检测方法和健康危害的研究进展

丙烯酰胺广泛应用于工业生产,是一种潜在的环境污染物。本文从丙烯酰胺的检测方法和健康危害2个方面总结了目前的研究进展。检测方法上,以高效液相色谱-质谱串联法(HPLC-MS/MS)最为常用,一些新技术也逐渐应用到分析中。健康危害方面,丙烯酰胺可引起实验生物的神经、生殖、遗传和发育等毒性和潜在致癌性。其毒性机理为:直接损坏神经元;使活性氧(ROS)积累导致氧化损伤;诱发基因位点突变,或与DNA形成加合物而致其损伤等。鉴于目前研究存在的问题,对以后的工作进行了展望:加强监管与治理工作,保护生态环境和人类健康;深入开展丙烯酰胺对生物体的毒性效应研究;加强我国环境中丙烯酰胺的跟踪监测工作;建立一种快捷的生物测试系统来评估水体(尤其是海洋环境)中丙烯酰胺的毒性风险。     

Residential radon concentration in the Abruzzo region (Italy): a different perspective for identifying radon prone areas

Indoor radon is an important risk factor for human health. Indeed radon inhalation is considered the second cause of lung cancer after smoking. During the last decades, in many countries huge efforts have been made in order to measuring, mapping and predicting radon levels in dwellings. Various researches have been devoted to identify those areas within the country where high radon concentrations are more likely to be found. Data collected through indoor radon surveys have been analysed adopting various statistical approaches, among which hierarchical Bayesian models and geostatistical tools are worth noting. The essential goal of this paper regards the identification of high radon concentration areas (the so-called radon prone areas) in the Abruzzo Region (Italy). In order to accurately pinpoint zones deserving attention for mitigation purpose, we adopt spatial cluster detection techniques, traditionally employed in epidemiology. As a first step, we assume that indoor radon measurements do not arise from a continuous spatial process; thus the geographic locations of dwellings where the radon measurements have been taken can be viewed as a realization of a spatial point process. Following this perspective, we adopt and compare recent cluster detection techniques: the simulated annealing scan statistic, the case event approach based on distance regression on the selection order and the elliptic spatial scan statistic. The analysis includes data collected during surveys carried out by the Regional Agency for the Environment Protection of Abruzzo (ARTA) in 1,861 random sampled dwellings across 277 municipalities of the Abruzzo region. The radon prone areas detected by the selected approaches are provided along with the summary statistics of the methods. Finally, the methodologies considered in this paper are tested on simulated data in order to evaluate their power and the precision of cluster location detection.     

Copeland法与证据权重法在污染物危害性排序上的对比研究

化学物质可能对生态环境或通过不同环境介质对人体健康造成危害。为识别出高危害的污染物,采用Copeland计分排序法和证据权重法,分别选择4、6和8个筛选指标,开展了50种污染物危害特性优先性排序。结果表明:筛选因子数量相同时,2种方法危害性排序结果的斯皮尔曼相关性在0.94以上,具有较好的相关性,可见2种方法均可用于污染物危害性排序;方法相同时,不同指标排序结果之间的相关性相对较小,表明选择不同的筛选指标对结果影响较大。     

Spatially constrained clustering and upper level set scan hotspot detection in surveillance geoinformatics

We discuss upper level set (ULS) scan as a type of spatially constrained clustering in relation to two ways of imposing the spatial constraint, retrospectively versus progressively. We show that ULS scan produces the same results both ways; whereas two popular clustering techniques, single-linkage and K-means, can yield different results when spatial constraints are imposed retrospectively versus progressively. The ULS scan approach examines spatially connected components of a tessellation as a threshold is moved from the highest level (value) in the data to the lowest level. When the variable of interest on the tessellation is a rate of incidence, then a significance test is available based on binomial or Poisson null models and Monte Carlo techniques. This is a common context for detecting hotspots of diseases in epidemiological work. We also discuss an approach for extending the univariate methodology to accommodate multivariate contexts. Received: September 2005 / Revised: February 2006 This material is based upon work supported by (i) the National Science Foundation under Grant No. 0307010, (ii) the United States Environmental Protection Agency under Grant No. CR-83059301 and (iii) the Pennsylvania Department of Health using Tobacco Settlement Funds under Grant No. ME 01324. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the agencies.     

Different ranking methods: potentialities and pitfalls for the case of European opinion poll

Prioritization and ranking of objects are primary needs in various substantive fields. It might be said that ranking and comparison are the first step in every risk assessment procedure, whatever the ‘risk’ is intended as: social, environmental, political or economic. Often objects to be ranked are valued by a multi-dimensional attribute which is usually transformed into a composite numerical score. In spite of conventional solutions, the author agrees with recent recommendations of performing multiple ranking, keeping indicators separated. Different innovative methods are analyzed and compared: Hasse diagrams method, POSAC and Nonlinear PCA. The first one stems directly from partial order theory, the second one may be seen as an approximation of Hasse representation in a two dimensional space, whilst the third one belongs to the wide set of non-linear multivariate techniques and it is particularly suitable in handling data of categorical type. Among them, the first two methods compare objects on the basis only on order property of data, whilst the last one simultaneously performs an optimal scale of qualitative attributes and a ranking of objects. The case study is based on the Eurobarometer survey carried out in 2002, at the request of the European Commission, which collects Europeans opinion about various political and social issues. The analysis is focused on users’ level of satisfaction about access easiness, cost, quality, information received and contracts of various services of general interest, such as telephone services, power (gas and electricity) providers, water and postal utilities, urban and rail transports. Separate indicators are set up for each facet of each service within different European regions. Eventually, the ranking of European regions is performed on the basis of the overall performance of services of general interest, as perceived by users. Selected methods lead to almost alike results, still with some differentiations due to different approaches used. As it frequently occurs, each method has its own advantages and pitfalls which are here explored and compared.     

Social monogamy and the threat of infanticide in larger mammals

The evolution of social monogamy in larger mammals is difficult to explain because males usually do not invest much in direct offspring care and might achieve greater fitness by deserting a pregnant female to reproduce with additional females elsewhere. It has been hypothesized that socially monogamous males remain with the female year-round to protect their offspring from infanticide by new immigrant males. We investigated this idea by analyzing all cases of infant loss in a wild population of white-handed gibbons (Hylobates lar; Primates), in which most groups were socially monogamous and some polyandrous (137.5 group years). We examined the influence of (a) male intruder pressure on male immigration rates and (b) the presence of a new male in the group on infant loss. We found no relation between intruder pressure and male immigration rates. Infant loss was lowest (4.5%) for stable monogamy (probable father stayed from conception through infancy) and intermediate (25.0%; p = 0.166) for stable polyandry. If a new male immigrated after conception, however, the infant was lost in all cases (p < 0.01) independent of the presumed father’s presence. Overall, 83.3% of infant losses were associated with the presence of a presumably unrelated male. Although the sample size is small, our results provide the first true support for the idea that the risk of infanticide is an important factor in the evolution of social monogamy in larger mammals.     

An evaluation of heavy metals contamination in soils from Ganzhou navel orange orchards by geoaccumulation indexes and statistical analysis

Heavy metal pollution in orchard soils is of increasing concern owing to the potential health risk via the food chain. The evaluations of the degree of heavy metal contamination and the potential sources in soils from navel orange orchards in the Ganzhou district were investigated in the present study with the geoaccumulation index and hierarchical cluster analysis. The soil samples were collected from 280 navel orange orchards located in the 18 counties of the Ganzhou district. The concentrations of heavy metals in the samples were determined using atomic fluorescence spectrometry and inductively coupled plasma atomic emission spectrometry with sample preparation by microwave digestion system. The results of the geoaccumulation index showed that the Ganzhou navel orange orchards were practically uncontaminated with Hg, As, Pb, Cd, Cr, Zn, and Cu, while uncontaminated to moderately contaminated with Ni. The results of cluster analysis indicated that four distinct clusters emerged for 18 sampling counties, and the considerable differences between clusters were derived from the different kinds of polluted substances. Results of the assessment of geoaccumulation index of heavy metals in soils will be helpful for the formulation of strategic sustainable agriculture in Ganzhou navel orchards and improvement of the navel orange yield and quality.     

The influence of maternal rank and infant sex on maternal investment trends in rhesus macaques: birth sex ratios,inter-birth intervals and suckling patterns

Summary In the new colony of rhesus macaques at Madingley, no overall difference was found in the length of the inter-birth intervals following the birth of male and female infants. The lack of overall differences in the reproductive costs of raising sons and daughters, was associated with an absence of differences in suckling patterns between male and female infants. It is argued that similar pre-weaning investment in sons and daughters may be related to the presence of similar growth rates for male and female infants during the first year of life. Most high ranking mothers reproduced in consecutive years, while low ranking mothers were more likely to experience two year long inter-birth intervals. Further analyses revealed that this difference was mainly due to the fact that low ranking mothers always failed to reproduce the year after raising a daughter. Thus, no difference was found in the length of inter-birth intervals between high ranking mothers with infants of either sex and low ranking mothers with sons. The daughters of low ranking females suckled more frequently and making more nipple contacts per bout, and such high nipple stimulation was responsible for the reproductive inhibition experienced by their mothers. It is suggested that the high degrees of nipple stimulation may have been a consequence of the high levels of aggression that low ranking females with daughters have been shown to receive, since their mothers could have allowed frequent ventro-ventral contact in order to protect them. Given that low ranking mothers find daughters reproductively costly to raise, it is possible that such high reproductive costs have played a significant role in the evolution of sex ratio biases at birth. As in other primate populations, in this colony low ranking females produced a greater proportion of sons than daughters, and high ranking mothers showed the opposite trend.     

Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Endangered Species Hotspots in the United States

Abstract: Given limited resources, many researchers advocate focusing conservation efforts on hotspots, geographical areas with high numbers of species (i.e., richness), endemic species, rare or threatened species, and/or high levels of threat to species survival. The hotspot approach is an efficient and simple way to conserve species diversity, assuming that hotspots do not change over space or time. We tested whether hotspots change across space and time using a database of endangered and threatened species listed by the U.S. government from 1967 to 1999. We determined hotspots based on the cumulative set of species listed for three overlapping and successively longer time periods: 1967–1979, 1967–1989, and 1967–1999. We used minimum area complimentarity analysis, which selected the smallest set of areas (in our study, U.S. counties) needed to represent a chosen set of species. Over time, the number of endangered and threatened species in the United States increased from 76 in 1967 to 1123 in 1999. As the number of species increased over time, hotspots changed in two ways: the number of hotspots increased and the rank of hotspots shifted. Hotspots increased from 84 in 1979, to 166 in 1989, to 217 in 1999. Only 63 of these counties were designated as hotspots in all three periods. The remaining changes resulted from addition and deletion of counties as hotspots over time. Some counties were removed from the list or changed in relative rank from one time period to the next regardless of their rank. Counties added as hotspots could rank anywhere on the list, and they were not merely low-ranking counties added to represent one or a few species. Therefore, hotspots serve as a useful tool for guiding conservation efforts but, given their spatiotemporal variability, do not represent a final solution.     

Multicriteria analysis applied to the sustainable agriculture problem

SUMMARY

The aim of this paper is to present an operational approach to compare the relative sustainability of existing farming systems. Sustainability rests on the assumption that an equilibrium must exist among three domains: social, economic and ecological. If we are to look for a solution to the problem, we must face a multi-dimensional approach. We propose that multicriteria analysis, a multi-dimensional method, is an appropriate methodology to study the issue. As sustainability cannot be measured directly, the way out is to use indicators. We have performed a thorough analysis of four farming systems existing in Guaíra, SP, Brazil to validate the methodology. Thirty indicators of sustainability (ten ecological, ten social, and ten economic) were defined and used to perform the analysis. The results of the multicriteria analysis proved useful because of its capability of reducing the dimensionality of the problem. From the three dimensions of sustainability, a final score was derived that can easily compare the relative sustainability of each farming system.     

F-RNA噬菌体及其作为水中肠道病毒指示物的研究进展

城市污水的再生利用是缓解水资源紧张、减少水污染和改善生态环境的有效途径。污水及其回用水中的肠道病毒对人体健康的风险日益受到关注。直接检测水中肠道病毒的操作复杂、安全性差、时间长、需要专门的技术和设备，因此需要寻找合适的指示生物，以实现对水中肠道病毒的及时检测和风险评价。F-RNA噬菌体是通过性菌毛感染雄性大肠杆菌的一类RNA细菌病毒，在污水中普遍存在，在大小、形态结构及对环境条件和水处理过程的抗性与肠道病毒相似，被认为是水中肠道病毒的合适的指示生物。文章介绍了F-RNA噬菌体在环境及污水中的分布、存活和去除特性、检测方法及作为水中肠道病毒指示生物的研究进展。     

Integrating Habitat Status, Human Population Pressure, and Protection Status into Biodiversity Conservation Priority Setting

Abstract:  Priority setting is an essential component of biodiversity conservation. Existing methods to identify priority areas for conservation have focused almost entirely on biological factors. We suggest a new relative ranking method for identifying priority conservation areas that integrates both biological and social aspects. It is based on the following criteria: the habitat's status, human population pressure, human efforts to protect habitat, and number of endemic plant and vertebrate species. We used this method to rank 25 hotspots, 17 megadiverse countries, and the hotspots within each megadiverse country. We used consistent, comprehensive, georeferenced, and multiband data sets and analytical remote sensing and geographic information system tools to quantify habitat status, human population pressure, and protection status. The ranking suggests that the Philippines, Atlantic Forest, Mediterranean Basin, Caribbean Islands, Caucasus, and Indo-Burma are the hottest hotspots and that China, the Philippines, and India are the hottest megadiverse countries. The great variation in terms of habitat, protected areas, and population pressure among the hotspots, the megadiverse countries, and the hotspots within the same country suggests the need for hotspot- and country-specific conservation policies.     

Short-term consequences of different breeding histories for captive rhesus macaque mothers and young

Summary Life histories of rhesus monkey mothers (Macaca mulatta) were classified in terms of (1) whether the mothers were top ranking or not, (2) gave birth to more daughters than sons or vice versa, and (3) gave birth at intervals of one year or of more than a year. Bearing daughters at intervals of more than a year was the most common history among top ranking mothers, while bearing sons annually was most common among other mothers. The consequences for the infants and mothers of such histories were examined and (1) infants were more likely to die as neonates if they had an older sister, especially if the sister had been born in the previous birth season; (2) dyads with daughters received more aggression from other adults in the daughter's first year, but not necessarily through the year following the birth of the next infant (3) when mothers of daughters gave birth of the next infant after at least one fallow year, their daughters directed considerable amounts of harassing aggression to their next-born sibling; and (4) mothers of sons but not of daughters delayed longer when they received more aggression from other adults.We discuss the views that birth sex ratios may be affected by a mother's rank rather than how often she is involved in aggressive encounters with other adults; and that in top-ranking mothers, birth intervals may be controlled more by the infant's sex than aggression the family received. Fitting the data into a life history strategy model is done as a provisional and speculative exercise