Proposed Conservation Landscape for Giant Pandas in the Minshan Mountains,China

Abstract: The giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca), is one of the world's most endangered species. Habitat loss and fragmentation have reduced its numbers, shrunk its distribution, and separated the population into isolated subpopulations. Such isolated, small populations are in danger of extinction due to random demographic factors and inbreeding. We used least‐cost modeling as a systematic approach to incorporate satellite imagery and data on ecological and behavioral parameters of the giant panda collected during more than 10 years of field research to design a conservation landscape for giant pandas in the Minshan Mountains. We identified 8 core habitats and 4 potential linkages that would link core habitats CH3, CH4, and CH5 with core habitats CH6, CH7, and CH8. Establishing and integrating the identified habitats with existing reserves would create an efficient reserve network for giant panda conservation. The core habitats had an average density of 4.9 pandas/100 km² and contained approximately 76.6% of the giant panda population. About 45% of the core habitat (3245.4 km²) existed outside the current nature reserves network. Total estimated core habitat decreased between 30.4 and 44.5% with the addition of residential areas and road networks factored into the model. A conservation area for giant panda in the Minshan Mountains should aim to ensure habitat retention and connectivity, improve dispersal potential of corridors, and maintain the evolutionary potential of giant pandas in the face of future environmental changes.     

Application of least-cost path model to identify a giant panda dispersal corridor network after the Wenchuan earthquake—Case study of Wolong Nature Reserve in China

With growing levels of human-activity and frequent natural disturbances throughout the world, it is increasingly important that both research and management efforts take into account the widespread landscape fragmentation and its consequences for biodiversity conservation. The magnitude 5.12 Wenchuan earthquake in China caused dramatic impacts on giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) habitat in the nature reserves within Minshan and Qionglai mountains. With the combined stresses of the natural disaster and the extensive human activities during postquake reconstruction, giant panda habitat in this region may become more fragmented in the future. In order to preserve the giant panda population after the earthquake and protect the species against habitat fragmentation, this article explores a method of identifying giant panda migration corridors involving habitat suitability assessments and a least-cost path model. Focusing on postquake Wolong Nature Reserve, our results demonstrate that it contains 430.3 km² of suitable habitat (21.1% of total area), 463.8 km² of marginally suitable habitat (22.8%) and 1141.9 km² of unsuitable habitat (50.1%). We further show that several giant panda dispersal corridors exist in the reserve, including four corridor groups that cross the provincial highway and five corridors that do not intersect areas of human activity. This study will contribute to management and conservation efforts in Wolong Nature Reserve and beyond after the Wenchuan earthquake.     

Patterns of Genetic Diversity in Remaining Giant Panda Populations

Abstract: The giant panda ( Ailuropoda melanoleuca ) is among the more familiar symbols of species conservation. The protection of giant panda populations has been aided recently by the establishment of more and better-managed reserves in existing panda habitat located in six mountain ranges in western China. These remaining populations are becoming increasingly isolated from one another, however, leading to the concern that historic patterns of gene flow will be disrupted and that reduced population sizes will lead to diminished genetic variability. We analyzed four categories of molecular genetic markers (mtDNA restriction-fragment-length polymorphisms [RFLP], mtDNA control region sequences, nuclear multilocus DNA fingerprints, and microsatellite size variation) in giant pandas from three mountain populations (Qionglai, Minshan, and Qinling) to assess current levels of genetic diversity and to detect evidence of historic population subdivisions. The three populations had moderate levels of genetic diversity compared with similarly studied carnivores for all four gene measures, with a slight but consistent reduction in variability apparent in the smaller Qinling population. That population also showed significant differentiation consistent with its isolation since historic times. From a strictly genetic perspective, the giant panda species and the three populations look promising insofar as they have retained a large amount of genetic diversity in each population, although evidence of recent population reduction—likely from habitat loss—is apparent. Ecological management to increase habitat, population expansion, and gene flow would seem an effective strategy to stabilize the decline of this endangered species.     

Interactive effects of natural and human disturbances on vegetation dynamics across landscapes.

Accurate measures of human effects on landscape processes require consideration of both the direct impacts from human activities and the indirect consequences of the interactions between humans and the landscape. This is particularly evident in systems experiencing regular natural disturbances such as in the mountainous areas of southwestern China, where the remaining population of giant pandas (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) is supported. Here the spatiotemporal patterns of human impacts, forests, and bamboo episodic die-offs combine to determine the distribution of panda habitat. To study the complex interactions of humans and landscapes, we developed an integrated spatiotemporally explicit model of household activities, natural vegetation dynamics, and their impacts on panda habitat. Using this model we examined the direct consequences of local fuelwood collection and household creation on areas of critical giant panda habitat and the indirect impacts when coupled with vegetation dynamics. Through simulations, we found that over the next 30 years household impacts would result in the loss of up to 30% of the habitat relied on by pandas during past bamboo die-offs. The accumulation and spatial distribution of household impacts would also have a considerable indirect influence on the spatial distribution of understory bamboo. While human impacts influence both bamboo die-off and regeneration, over 19% of pre-existing low-elevation bamboo habitat may be lost following an episodic die-off depending on the severity of the impacts and timing of the die-offs. Our study showed not only the importance of the spatial distribution of direct household impacts on habitat, but also the far-reaching effects of the indirect interactions between humans and the landscapes they are modifying.     

Progress in the ecology and conservation of giant pandas

Giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) conservation is a possible success story in the making. If extinction of this iconic endangered species can be avoided, the species will become a showcase program for the Chinese government and its collaborators. We reviewed the major advancements in ecological science for the giant panda, examining how these advancements have contributed to panda conservation. Pandas’ morphological and behavioral adaptations to a diet of bamboo, which bear strong influence on movement ecology, have been well studied, providing knowledge to guide management actions ranging from reserve design to climate change mitigation. Foraging ecology has also provided essential information used in the creation of landscape models of panda habitat. Because habitat loss and fragmentation are major drivers of the panda population decline, efforts have been made to help identify core habitat areas, establish where habitat corridors are needed, and prioritize areas for protection and restoration. Thus, habitat models have provided guidance for the Chinese governments’ creation of 67 protected areas. Behavioral research has revealed a complex and efficient communication system and documented the need for protection of habitat that serves as a communication platform for bringing the sexes together for mating. Further research shows that den sites in old‐growth forests may be a limiting resource, indicating potential value in providing alternative den sites for rearing offspring. Advancements in molecular ecology have been revolutionary and have been applied to population census, determining population structure and genetic diversity, evaluating connectivity following habitat fragmentation, and understanding dispersal patterns. These advancements form a foundation for increasing the application of adaptive management approaches to move panda conservation forward more rapidly. Although the Chinese government has made great progress in setting aside protected areas, future emphasis will be improved management of pandas and their habitat.     

Modeling the spatio-temporal dynamics and interactions of households,landscapes, and giant panda habitat

Human modification of land-cover has been a leading cause of floral and faunal species extirpation and loss of local and global biodiversity. As natural areas are impacted, habitat and populations can become fragmented and isolated. This is particularly evident in the mountainous areas of southwestern China that support the remaining populations of giant pandas (Ailuropoda melanoleuca). Giant panda populations have been restricted to remnants of habitat from extensive past land use and land-cover change. Households are a basic socio-economic unit that continues to impact the remaining habitat through activities such as fuelwood consumption and new household creation. Therefore, we developed a spatio-temporal model of human activities and their impacts by directly integrating households into the landscape. The integrated model allows us to examine the landscape factors influencing the spatial distribution of household activities and household impacts on habitat. As an example application, we modeled household activities in a giant panda reserve in China and examined the spatio-temporal dynamics of households, the landscape, and their mutual interactions. Human impacts are projected to result in the loss of up to 16% of all existing habitat within the reserve over the next 30 years. In addition, we found that accessibility largely controls the spatial distribution of household activities and considerable changes in management and household activities will be required to maintain the current level of habitat within the reserve.     

Effectiveness of management zoning designed for flagship species in protecting sympatric species

Flagship species have been used widely as umbrella species (i.e., species with large home range whose protection often provides protection for sympatric species) in the management of China's nature reserves. This conflation of flagship and umbrella species is best represented by the giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) and other large, endangered mammals designated as conservation targets in site selection and planning of reserves. Few empirical studies have tested the effectiveness of flagship species as surrogates for a broader range of sympatric species. Using extensive camera-trap data, we examined the effectiveness of management zones designated to protect flagship (target) species in conserving sympatric species in 4 wildlife reserves (Gutianshan, Changqing, Laohegou, and Wolong). We tested whether the progression from peripheral to core zones was associated with an increasing habitat association for both target and sympatric species. The distribution patterns of the study species across the zones in each reserve indicated a disparity between management zones and the species’ habitat requirements. Management zone was included in the final model for all target species, and most of them had higher occurrence in core zones relative to less-protected zones, but zone was not a predictor for most of the sympatric species. When management zone was associated with the occurrence of sympatric species, threatened species generally had higher detections in core zones, whereas common species had higher detections outside of the core zone. Our results suggested that reserve planning based on flagship species does not adequately protect sympatric species due to their specialized habitat requirements. We recommend re-examining the effectiveness of management zoning and urge a multispecies and reserve-wide monitoring plan to improve protection of China's wildlife.     

Temporal changes in giant panda habitat connectivity across boundaries of Wolong Nature Reserve, China.

Global biodiversity loss is largely driven by human activities such as the conversion of natural to human-dominated landscapes. A popular approach to mitigating land cover change is the designation of protected areas (e.g., nature reserves). Nature reserves are traditionally perceived as strongholds of biodiversity conservation. However, many reserves are affected by land cover changes not only within their boundaries, but also in their surrounding areas. This study analyzed the changes in habitat for the giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) inside Wolong Nature Reserve, Sichuan, China, and in a 3-km buffer area outside its boundaries, through a time series of classified satellite imagery and field observations. Habitat connectivity between the inside and the outside of the reserve diminished between 1965 and 2001 because panda habitat was steadily lost both inside and outside the reserve. However, habitat connectivity slightly increased between 1997 and 2001 due to the stabilization of some panda habitat inside and outside the reserve. This stabilization most likely occurred as a response to changes in socioeconomic activities (e.g., shifts from agricultural to nonagricultural economies). Recently implemented government policies could further mitigate the impacts of land cover change on panda habitat. The results suggest that Wolong Nature Reserve, and perhaps other nature reserves in other parts of the world, cannot be managed as an isolated entity because habitat connectivity declines with land cover changes outside the reserve even if the area inside the reserve is well protected. The findings and approaches presented in this paper may also have important implications for the management of other nature reserves across the world.     

Complex effects of habitat amount and fragmentation on functional connectivity and inbreeding in a giant panda population

The relationships between habitat amount and fragmentation level and functional connectivity and inbreeding remain unclear. Thus, we used genetic algorithms to optimize the transformation of habitat area and fragmentation variables into resistance surfaces to predict genetic structure and examined habitat area and fragmentation effects on inbreeding through a moving window and spatial autoregressive modeling approach. We applied these approaches to a wild giant panda population. The amount of habitat and its level of fragmentation had nonlinear effects on functional connectivity (gene flow) and inbreeding. Functional connectivity was highest when approximately 80% of the surrounding landscape was habitat. Although the relationship between habitat amount and inbreeding was also nonlinear, inbreeding increased as habitat increased until about 20% of the local landscape contained habitat, after which inbreeding decreased as habitat increased. Because habitat fragmentation also had nonlinear relationships with functional connectivity and inbreeding, we suggest these important responses cannot be effectively managed by minimizing or maximizing habitat or fragmentation. Our work offers insights for prioritization of protected areas.     

A linked model of animal ecology and human behavior for the management of wildlife tourism

Wildlife tourism attractions are characterized as having intricately coupled human-wildlife interactions. Accordingly, the ability to mitigate negative impacts of tourism on wildlife necessitates research into the ecology of the system and of the human dimensions, since plans aimed at optimizing wildlife fitness must also be acceptable to tourists. We developed an integrated systems dynamics model for the management of tourist-stingray interactions at ‘Stingray City Sandbar’ (SCS), Cayman Islands. The model predicts the state of the tourism attraction over time in relation to stingray population size, stingray life expectancy, and tourist visitation under various management scenarios. Stingray population data in the model comprised growth rates and survival estimates (from mark-and-recapture data) and mortality estimates. Inputted changes in their respective rates under different management scenarios were informed by previous research. Original research on the demand of heterogeneous tourist segments for management regulations via a stated choice model was used to calculate changes in the tourist population growth rate from data supplied by the Caymanian government. The management attributes to which tourists were responsive also have anticipated effects on stingray ecology (migration and mortality), and vice versa, thus linking the two components. We found that the model's predictions over a 25-year time span were sensitive to the stingray population growth rate and alternate management options. Under certain management scenarios, it was possible to maximize both the tourist segment in favor of no management and stingray numbers while reducing stingray health. However, the most effective relative strategy included a reduction in visitor density, restricted stingray interactions, and an imposition of a small fee. Over time, although fewer stingrays were predicted to remain at SCS, they would live longer and experience fewer stochastic disease events, and the desirable tourist segment was predicted to predominate. By understanding how management will affect tourist activities and their subsequent impacts on both wildlife health and visitor satisfaction, one can explore the management alternatives that would optimize both.     

Adequacy of Wildlife Habitat Relation Models for Estimating Spatial Distributions of Terrestrial Vertebrates

In the U.S. National Biological Service's gap analysis, potential distributions of terrestrial vertebrate species are based on the synthesis of wildlife habitat relation data and then modeled using a vegetation cover map derived from Landsat Thematic Mapper imagery. Using long-term species lists from eight National Parks in Utah, we evaluated the adequacy of the wildlife habitat relations data generated by gap analysis in predicting species distributions at landscape scales. Omission and commission error rates were estimated for major taxonomic groups and for each national park. Depending on the taxonomic group, omission error ranged from 0 to 25%, whereas commission error ranged from 4 to 33%. Error rates were highest in amphibians and reptiles and lowest for birds and mammals. In general, the error rate declined as the size of the park increased. The Utah wildlife habitat relation models performed well when used to predict the presence or absence of terrestrial vertebrates in eight national parks in Utah and should provide valuable information for making conservation decisions. They also provide a measure of support for the use of these models within the gap analysis framework. Although it is likely that accuracy of wildlife habitat relation models will vary from state to state, and even considerably within a state, the modeling process seems robust enough to provide a reasonably high level of accuracy for use in conservation planning at the ecoregion level.     

Potential solar radiation pattern in relation to the monthly distribution of giant pandas in Foping Nature Reserve, China

Solar radiation is an important parameter in ecological process modeling, hydrological modeling and bio-physical modeling. However, models focusing on solar radiation in relation to giant panda habitat and seasonal distribution are limited. The research aims to form spatial models of 12 month solar radiation patterns and to investigate the relation between the solar radiation patterns and the monthly distribution patterns of giant pandas. The solar radiation model of Kumar et al. was adopted for this study in Foping Nature Reserve (NR), China. By comparing twelve monthly solar radiation patterns and calculating statistics such as maximum, minimum, mean and standard deviation of the solar radiation, diversified solar radiation patterns over different months were obtained. Maximum solar radiation occurred in June and July, while minimum solar radiation occurred in December and January. The annual sum of solar radiation was 6954 MJ/m² in Foping NR. The range in solar radiation was smaller in hot months and larger in cold months. Radio tracking data of giant pandas were collected for twelve months and the ensuing maps were overlaid with the twelve-month solar radiation map to analyze the relation between the giant panda's monthly distribution and solar radiation. Our results showed that giant pandas prefer areas with lower solar radiation in warm months and select areas with higher solar radiation in cold months, which illustrates that the distribution of giant pandas is indeed affected by solar radiation. To a certain degree, it also explains the behavior of seasonal movement by giant pandas in Foping NR.     

Refining logistic regression models for wildlife habitat suitability modeling—A case study with muntjak and goral in the Central Himalayas, India

High quality habitat suitability maps are indispensable for the management and planning of wildlife reserves. This is particularly important for megadiverse developing countries where shortages in skilled manpower and funding may preclude the use of mathematically complex modeling techniques and resource-intensive field surveys. In this study, we propose a simulation based k-fold partitioning and re-substitution approach to refine and update logistic regression models that are widely used for habitat suitability assessment and modeling. We test the modeling strategy using data from a rapid field survey conducted for habitat suitability assessment for muntjak (Muntiacus muntjak) and goral (Naemorrhaedus goral) in the central Himalayas, India. Results obtained from simulations match expectations in terms of model behavior and in terms of published habitat associations of the investigated species. Qualitative comparisons with predictions from the GARP, MaxEnt and Bioclimatic Envelopes modeling systems also show broad agreement with predictions obtained from the proposed technique. The proposed technique is suggested as a rapid-assessment precursor to detailed habitat studies such as patch occupancy modeling in situations where funds or trained manpower are not available.     

Effects of protected areas on survival of threatened gibbons in China

Establishing protected areas (PAs) is an essential strategy to reduce biodiversity loss. However, many PAs do not provide adequate protection due to poor funding, inadequate staffing and equipment, and ineffective management. As part of China's recent economic growth, the Chinese government has significantly increased investment in nature reserves over the past 20 years, providing a unique opportunity to evaluate whether PAs can protect threatened species effectively. We compiled data from published literature on populations of gibbons (Hylobatidae), a threatened taxon with cultural significance, that occurred in Chinese reserves after 1980. We evaluated the ability of these PAs to maintain gibbon habitat and populations by comparing forest cover and human disturbance between reserves and their surrounding areas and modeling the impact of reserve characteristics on gibbon population trends. We also assessed the perspective of reserve staff concerning PA management effectiveness through an online survey. Reserves effectively protected gibbon habitat by reducing forest loss and human disturbance; however, half the reserves lost their gibbon populations since being established. Gibbons were more likely to survive in reserves established more recently, at higher elevation, with less forest loss and lower human impact, and that have been relatively well studied. A larger initial population size in the 1980s was positively associated with gibbon persistence. Although staff of all reserves reported increased investment and improved management over the past 20–30 years, no relationship was found between management effectiveness and gibbon population trends. We suggest early and emphatic intervention is critical to stop population decline and prevent extinction.     

A strategy for wildlife management in depopulating rural areas of Japan

Former ranges of wild animals have been reestablished in many developed countries. However, this reestablishment has led to increasing human–wildlife conflict in agroforest ecosystems. In Japan, human–wildlife conflict, such as crop raiding by and ecological impacts of wild ungulates and primates, is a serious problem in depopulated rural areas due to these animal range expansions and increased abundances. Japan's human population is predicted to decline by 24% by 2050, and approximately 20% of agricultural settlements will become completely depopulated. In this scenario, anthropogenic pressures on wildlife (e.g., hunting and habitat alteration) will continue to decrease and human–wildlife conflict will increase due to increasing wildlife recovery. Japan's local governments plan to slow range recovery, prevent species reestablishment, or remove recolonizing large mammals through lethal control. This strategy, however, is not cost-effective, and workforce shortages in depopulated communities make it infeasible. Moreover, the suppression of wildlife prevents the recovery of ecological functions and thus would degrade regional biodiversity. The declining pressure on wildlife that accompanies human depopulation will prevent the restoration of any past states of human–wildlife interaction. We suggest human-used areas in rural landscapes be aggregated in compact cities and that in transition zones between human settlements and depopulated lands that land-sharing approaches be applied. Concentrating management efforts in compact cities may effectively decrease human–wildlife conflict, rather than intensifying human pressures. Reforestation of depopulated lands may lead to recovery of wildlife habitats, their ecosystem functions, and regional biodiversity due to minimization of negative anthropogenic effects (land-sparing approach). Balancing resolution of human–wildlife conflict and ecological rewilding could become a new, challenging task for regional wildlife managers.     

Bayesian Small Area Models for Assessing Wildlife Conservation Risk in Patchy Populations

Abstract:  Species conservation risk assessments require accurate, probabilistic, and biologically meaningful maps of population distribution. In patchy populations, the reasons for discontinuities are not often well understood. We tested a novel approach to habitat modeling in which methods of small area estimation were used within a hierarchical Bayesian framework. Amphibian occurrence was modeled with logistic regression that included third-order drainages as hierarchical effects to account for patchy populations. Models including the random drainage effects adequately represented species occurrences in patchy populations of 4 amphibian species in the Oregon Coast Range (U.S.A.). Amphibian surveys from other locations within the same drainage were used to calibrate local drainage-scale effects. Cross-validation showed that prediction errors for calibrated models were 77% to 86% lower than comparable regionally constructed models, depending on species. When calibration data were unavailable, small area and regional models performed similarly, although poorly. Small area estimation models complement wildlife ecology and habitat studies, and can help managers develop a regional picture of the conservation status for relatively rare species.     

Understanding the Diversity of Public Interests in Wildlife Conservation

Abstract:  North American state wildlife agencies are increasingly faced with the challenge of effectively representing a diverse public. With increasing social conflict over wildlife issues, the future of wildlife conservation hinges on preparedness of the profession to respond to this challenge. In the interest of finding ways to improve response, 19 agencies in the western U.S. joined forces to initiate an investigation that would provide a better understanding of the diversity of wildlife-related interests in the region. Specific objectives, accomplished through use of a mail survey administered in 2004, were to categorize people on the basis of their value orientations toward wildlife and explore how different groups were distributed across states and to examine differences on sociodemographic characteristics and attitudes toward wildlife-related topics among groups. The focus was on two orientations: domination (view of wildlife that prioritizes human well-being over wildlife and treats wildlife in utilitarian terms); and mutualism (view of wildlife as capable of relationships of trust with humans and defined by a desire for companionship with wildlife). Four types of people were identified on the basis of these orientations. Types differed in their geographic distribution and wildlife-related attitudes and behaviors, revealing how value orientations can form the foundation for conflict on wildlife issues. Our characterizations of stakeholder groups offer a framework that can be applied over time and across geographic scales to improve conservation planning efforts and inform broader thinking about the social aspects of wildlife conservation .     

野化培训大熊猫采食和人为砍伐对拐棍竹无性系种群生物量的影响

采用固定样方法和定位观察法连续测定了2003～2007年间卧龙自然保护区大熊猫野化培训圈内及其附近区域的拐棍竹无性系种群数量和生长发育特性等参数,运用收获法与非破坏性重量估测法建立了不同龄级和残桩的竹子种群和分株生物量估测模型,进而利用最佳模型计算并评估了野化培训大熊猫采食和人为砍伐对拐棍竹无性系种群生物量和植株个体生物量的影响.结果表明:在环境条件、种群密度、生长发育特征和种群生物量等基本相似的基础上,大熊猫采食和人为砍伐不仅降低实验期间的竹子生物生产力,而且影响到后期阶段实验种群的恢复与发展.大熊猫采食样方中的竹子种群生物量虽然较对照样方低,就竹笋生物量而言,约为对照的57.79%,这与野化培训圈的面积较小、竹种单一而使采食比重(67.07%)较大有关,但其各龄级植株个体生物量均能达到大熊猫的取食利用标准(仅2004年生竹除外),具有持续供给大熊猫食物资源的潜力;而人为砍伐措施与大熊猫采食相比,影响效果极为强烈,它严重降低了拐棍竹无性系的种群生物量,尤其是竹笋重量更是如此,仅为对照样方的14.69%,且植株个体鲜重远低于大熊猫的觅食条件.因此,竹笋和无性系植株的生物量是大熊猫采食标准的主要因素.     

The effectiveness of incentives in protected area management: An empirical analysis

Incentive approaches are believed to be indispensable for effective conservation and successful management in protected areas. However, the actual effectiveness of these approaches is still debatable. We carried out a case study in Wolong Biosphere Reserve (WBR), the largest reserve for the giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca), to evaluate the effectiveness of incentives. We obtained data from government documents and statistics, interviews and surveys on the employment status of public sector and industries. Results indicated that government-paid community-based conservation projects provided the most widespread and direct economic incentives. The conservation sector and several industries including hotels, hydropower and tourism have directly raised the employment level of local communities. The hotel industry, driven by the development of tourism, has been the most effective means of increasing local employment. However, the problem of immigrants attracted by the improved economic situation in WBR should be considered in the management plans. Suggestions for WBR management include development of quality ecotourism, vocational education for local young adults and new policies encouraging employment of local labour, both in the reserve and outside. Lessons learned from this research are constructive for the management of other protected areas.     

Using the past to contextualize anthropogenic impacts on the present and future distribution of an endemic Caribbean mammal

Island species are difficult to conserve because they face the synergy of climate change, invasive species, deforestation, and increasing human population densities in areas where land mass is shrinking. The Caribbean island of Hispaniola presents particular challenges because of geopolitical complexities that span 2 countries and hinder coordinated management of species across the island. We employed species distribution modeling to evaluate the impacts of climatic change and anthropogenic activities on the distribution of an endemic mammal of conservation concern, the Hispaniolan solenodon (Solenodon paradoxus). We aggregated occurrence points for this poorly known species for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the present (1975–2016) based on museum collections, online biodiversity databases, and new field surveys. We quantified degree of overlap between periods and scenarios with Schoener's D. Through a conservation paleobiology lens, we found that over time humans played an increasing role in shaping the distribution of S. paradoxus, thus, providing a foundation for developing conservation strategies on appropriate spatiotemporal scales. Human population density was the single most important predictor of S. paradoxus occurrence. Densities >166 people/km² corresponded to a near-zero probability of occurrence. Models that accounted for climate but not anthropogenic variables falsely identified suitable habitat in Haiti, where on-the-ground surveys confirm habitat is unavailable. Climate-only models also significantly overestimated the potential for habitat connectivity between isolated populations. Our work highlights that alternative fates for S. paradoxus in the Anthropocene exist across the political border between the Dominican Republic and Haiti due to the fundamentally different economic and political realities of each country. Relationships in the fossil record confirm that Hispaniola's sociopolitical boundary is not biologically significant but instead represents one imposed on the island's fauna in the past 500 years by colonial activity. Our approach reveals how a paleontological perspective can contribute to concrete management insights.