Assessment of transport performance index for urban transport development strategies — Incorporating residents' preferences

The performance of urban transport depends on a variety of factors related to metropolitan structure; in particular, the patterns of commuting, roads and public transport (PT) systems. To evaluate urban transport planning efforts, there is a need for a metric expressing the aggregate performance of the city's transport systems which should relate to residents' preferences. The existing metrics have typically focused on a measure to express the proximity of job locations to residences. A Transport Performance Index (TPI) is proposed in which the total cost of transportation system (operational and environmental costs) is divided by willingness to pay (WTP) for transport plus the willingness to accept (WTA) the environmental effects on residents. Transport operational as well as the environmental costs are derived from a simulation of all transport systems, to particular designs of spatial development. Willingness to pay for transport and willingness to accept the environmental effects are derived from surveys among residents. Simulations were modelled of Surabaya's spatial structure and public transport expansion. The results indicate that the current TPI is high, which will double by 2030. With a hypothetical polycentric city structure and adjusted job housing balance, a lower index occurs because of the improvements in urban transport performance. A low index means that the residents obtain much benefit from the alternative proposed. This illustrates the importance of residents' preferences in urban spatial planning in order to achieve efficient urban transport. Applying the index suggests that city authorities should provide fair and equitable public transport systems for suburban residents in the effort to control the phenomenon of urban sprawl. This index is certainly a good tool and prospective benchmark for measuring sustainability in relation to urban development.     

An Evaluation of Microscopic Emission Models for Traffic Pollution Simulation Using On-board Measurement

As a result of the continuously increasing numbers of motor vehicles in metropolitan areas worldwide, road traffic emission levels have been recognized as a challenge during the planning and management of transportation. Experiments were conducted to collect on-road emission data using portable emission measurement systems in two Chinese cities in order to estimate real traffic emissions and energy consumption levels and to build computational models for operational transport environment projects. In total, dynamic pollutant emissions and fuel consumption levels from dozens of light duty vehicles, primarily from four different vehicle classes, were measured at a second-by-second level. Using the collected data, several microscopic emission models including CMEM, VT-Micro, EMIT, and POLY were evaluated and compared through calibration and validation procedures. Non-linear optimization methods are applied for the calibration of the CMEM and EMIT models. Numerical results show that the models can realize performance levels close to the CMEM model in most cases. The VT-Micro model shows advantages in its unanimous performance and ability to describe low emission profiles while the EMIT model has a clear physics basis and a simple model structure. Both of them can be applied when extensive emission computation is required in estimating environmental impacts resulting from dynamic road traffic.     

Capability Maturity Model (CMM) method for assessing the performance of low-carbon city practice

Carbon emissions are considered as major factor affecting sustainable urban development. Cities have been promoting low carbon city (LCC) strategies to reduce carbon emissions and various methods have been introduced to assess the performance of LCC strategies. However, most of the existing assessment methods focus on overall LCC performance at city level, but the effects of individual dimensions like industrial structure and energy efficiency are ignored. The research question in this study therefore is whether an alternative method can be established to measure both the overall and dimensional LCC performance. This paper introduces a method for assessing LCC performance by using Capability Maturity Model (CMM), which is called LCC-CMM. The proposed method of LCC-CMM can help identify LCC maturity grade through assessing the performance of individual LCC dimensions which contributes to overall performance. There are four procedures in applying LCC-CMM, including to identify the Key Process Areas (KPAs) in the context of LCC, denoted as LCC-KPAs, to define the indicators for measuring the performance of LCC-KPAs, to calculate the performance score for each LCC-KPA, and to define criteria for specifying different grades of LCC capability maturity. The proposed method is proven effective through a case demonstration. The method can help policy makers to identify weak areas in LCC practice and introduce tailor-made policy measures to improve the weak areas.     

基于自动站资料的深圳灰霾特征对比分析

利用深圳自动气象站的气象要素和深圳大气成分监测系统采集的大气成分数据，分析了深圳城区和郊区灰霾季节变化、日变化差异和不同风向下污染物浓度差异，结果表明，城区由于人类活动频繁导致灰霾日比郊区多，以轻微灰霾偏多为主。秋、冬季城区冷空气活动频繁、能源消耗大，灰霾出现频率是郊区的1~2倍；春季冷空气和海上暖湿气流容易形成对峙，沿海颗粒物更容易吸湿增长，郊区灰霾频率反而比城区高25%；夏季对流强、降水频密，城郊差异最小。城区灰霾频率受早晚交通高峰期影响，日变化呈双峰型。而郊区受太阳辐射和光化学反应影响大，呈单峰型。偏北风条件下污染物浓度明显升高，偏南风带来的清洁空气使得颗粒物浓度降幅明显。     

Evaluation of urban sprawl and urban landscape pattern in a rapidly developing region

Urban sprawl is a worldwide phenomenon happening particularly in rapidly developing regions. A study on the spatiotemporal characteristics of urban sprawl and urban pattern is useful for the sustainable management of land management and urban land planning. The present research explores the spatiotemporal dynamics of urban sprawl in the context of a rapid urbanization process in a booming economic region of southern China from 1979 to 2005. Three urban sprawl types are distinguished by analyzing overlaid urban area maps of two adjacent study years which originated from the interpretation of remote sensed images and vector land use maps. Landscape metrics are used to analyze the spatiotemporal pattern of urban sprawl for each study period. Study results show that urban areas have expanded dramatically, and the spatiotemporal landscape pattern configured by the three sprawl types changed obviously. The different sprawl type patterns in five study periods have transformed significantly, with their proportions altered both in terms of quantity and of location. The present research proves that urban sprawl quantification and pattern analysis can provide a clear perspective of the urbanization process during a long time period. Particularly, the present study on urban sprawl and sprawl patterns can be used by land use and urban planners.     

A case study predicting environmental impacts of urban transport planning in China

Predicting environmental impacts is essential when performing an environmental assessment on urban transport planning. System dynamics (SD) is usually used to solve complex nonlinear problems. In this study, we utilized system dynamics (SD) to evaluate the environmental impacts associated with urban transport planning in Jilin City, China with respect to the local economy, society, transport, the environment and resources. To accomplish this, we generated simulation models comprising interrelated subsystems designed to utilize changes in the economy, society, road construction, changes in the number of vehicles, the capacity of the road network capacity, nitrogen oxides emission, traffic noise, land used for road construction and fuel consumption associated with traffic to estimate dynamic trends in the environmental impacts associated with Jilin's transport planning. Two simulation scenarios were then analyzed comparatively. The results of this study indicated that implementation of Jilin transport planning would improve the current urban traffic conditions and boost the local economy and development while benefiting the environment in Jilin City. In addition, comparative analysis of the two scenarios provided additional information that can be used to aid in scientific decision-making regarding which aspects of the transport planning to implement in Jilin City. This study demonstrates that our application of the SD method, which is referred to as the Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA), is feasible for use in urban transport planning.     

Land use patterns and urbanization in the holy city of Varanasi, India: a scenario

Rapid urbanization and increasing land use changes due to population and economic growth in selected landscapes is being witnessed of late in India and other developing countries. The cities are expanding in all directions resulting in large-scale urban sprawl and changes in urban land use. The spatial pattern of such changes is clearly noticed on the urban fringes or city peripheral rural areas than in the city center. In fact, this is reflected in changing urban land use patterns. There is an urgent need to accurately describe land use changes for planning and sustainable management. In the recent times, remote sensing is gaining importance as vital tool in the analysis and integration of spatial data. This study intends to estimate land use pattern in a planned and unplanned urban setup and also to analyze the impact of change in land use pattern in the Varanasi urban environment. The results indicate that the planned urban setup had a higher tree cover to that of unplanned area in the Varanasi City, although a considerable disparity existed within the planned urban setups. The results emphasize the need to critically review concepts of urban planning and give more consideration to the preservation and management of urban tree cover/greenspace.     

Future Trends and Mitigation Options for Energy Consumption and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Developing Country of the Middle East Region: a Case Study of Lebanon’s Road Transport Sector

The road transport system in Lebanon is one of the most unsustainable in the Middle East region due to, in large part, the absence of a national transportation strategy. This study proposes mitigation measures based on Lebanon’s commitments for reducing fossil fuel use and CO₂ emissions from road transport by increasing the share of fuel-efficient and hybrid electric vehicles and increasing the utilization of the existing bus service. Results show that increasing the market share of fuel-efficient vehicles to 35% in 2040 stabilizes energy use and emissions. The addition of hybrid vehicles to the first strategy, with a target of 10% market share by 2040, leads to 11% additional savings. Increasing the share of bus passenger kilometers traveled to 45% in 2040 leads to a reversal of adverse impacts. A combined strategy of all three measures leads to 63% reductions in 2040 compared to 2010, which is even superior to their cumulative savings.     

Evaluating the environmental sustainability of biomass-based energy strategy: Using an impact matrix framework

A roadmap for a more sustainable energy strategy is complex, as its development interacts critically with the economic, social, and environmental dimensions of sustainable development. This paper applied an impact matrix method to evaluate the environmental sustainability and to identify the desirable policy objectives of biomass-based energy strategy for the case of Alberta. A matrix with the sustainability domains on one axis and areas of environmental impact on the other was presented to evaluate the nexus effect of policy objectives and bioenergy production.As per to our analysis, economic diversification, technological innovation, and resource conservation came up as the desirable policy objectives of sustainable development for Alberta because they demonstrated environmental benefits in all environmental impact categories, namely climate change, human health, and ecosystem. On the other hand, human health and ecosystem impacts were identified as trade-offs when the policy objectives for sustainability were energy security, job creation, and climate change. Thus, bioenergy can mitigate climate change but may impact human health and ecosystem which then in turn can become issues of concern. Energy strategies may result in shifting of risks from one environmental impact category to another, and from one sustainable domain to another if the technical and policy-related issues are not identified.     

Quantifying landscape pattern and connectivity in a Mediterranean coastal settlement: the case of the Urla district,Turkey

This study was aimed at analyzing and interpreting changes in landscape pattern and connectivity in the Urla district, Turkey using core landscape metrics based on a 42-year data derived from 1963 CORONA and 2005 ASTER satellite images and ten 1/25,000 topographical maps (1963–2005). The district represents a distinctive example of re-emerged suburbanization in the Izmir metropolitan area. In order to explore landscape characteristics of the study area, nine landscape composition and configuration metrics were chosen as follows: class area, percentage of landscape, number of patches, patch density, largest patch index, landscape shape index, mean patch size, perimeter area fractal dimension, and connectance index. The landscape configurations in the Urla district changed significantly by 2005 in that the process of (sub-)urbanization in the study area evolved from a rural, monocentric urban typology to a more suburban, polycentric morphology. Agricultural, maquis-phrygana, and forest areas decreased, while the built-up, olive plantation and phrygana areas increased. There was nearly a fivefold increase in the built-up areas during the study period, and the connectivity of the natural landscape declined. To prevent further fragmentation, it is important to keep the existing natural land cover types and agricultural areas intact. More importantly, a sustainable development scenario is required that contains a green infrastructure, or an ecological network planning for conservation and rehabilitation of the vital natural resources in the study area.     

An evaluation of alternative household solid waste treatment practices using life cycle inventory assessment mode

Waste disposal is an important part of the life cycle of a product and is associated with environmental burdens like any other life-cycle stages. In this study, an integrated assessment for solid waste treatment practices, especially household solid waste, was undertaken to evaluate the impact contribution of household solid waste treatment alternatives towards the sustainable development by using Life Cycle Inventory Assessment method. A case study has been investigated under various possible scenarios, such as (1) landfill without landfill gas recovery, (2) landfill with landfill gas recovery and flaring, (3) landfill with landfill gas recovery and electric generation, (4) composting, and (5) incineration. The evaluation utilized the Life Cycle Inventory Assessment method for multiple assessments based on various aspects, such as greenhouse gas emission/reduction, energy generation/consumption, economic benefit, investment and operating cost, and land use burden. The results showed that incineration was the most efficient alternative for greenhouse gas emission reduction, economic benefit, energy recovery, and land use reduction, although it was identified as the most expensive for investment and operating cost, while composting scenario was also an efficient alternative with quite economic benefit, low investment and operating cost, and high reduction of land use, although it was identified as existing greenhouse gas emission and no energy generation. Furthermore, the aim of this study was also to establish localized assessment methods that waste management agencies, environmental engineers, and environmental policy decision makers can use to quantify and compare the contribution to the impacts from different waste treatment options.     

Exploration of sustainable development by applying green economy indicators

Following the global trend of sustainable development, development of green economy is the best way of slowing the negative ecological and environmental impact. This research establishes the Taiwan's green economic indicators based on the ecological footprint and energy analysis. The results are as follows: Taiwan's ecological footprint in 2008 intensity index was at 4.364; ecological overshoot index was at 3.364, showing that Taiwan's ecological system is in overload state. Moreover, this study utilizes energy analysis model to study the sustainable development of Taiwan. Findings showed that total energy use in 2008 was 3.14 × 10(23)?sej (solar energy joule, sej), energy of renewable resources was 1.30 × 10(22)?sej, energy of nonrenewable resources was 2.26 × 10(23)?sej, energy of products from renewable resources was 1.30 × 10(22)sej, energy of currency flow was 8.02 × 10(22)?sej and energy of wastes flow was 6.55 × 10(22)?sej. Taiwan's energy per capita and the utilization rate of energy is lower while the environmental loading rate is significantly higher comparing to some other countries. The foregoing findings indicate that Taiwan currently belongs to an economic development pattern based on high resource consumption. The economic development is mainly established on the exploitation and utilization of nonrenewable resources. Therefore, Taiwan should change the development pattern, regulate the industrial structure, promote the utilization rate of resources, develop green pollution-free products, and enhance the sustainable development of ecological economic system.     

Seasonal trends and potential sources of ambient air OCPs in urban and suburban areas in Dalian, China

A seasonal field campaign by passive sampling was conducted from February 2008 to February 2009, aiming to measure air concentrations of organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) in the urban and suburban areas in Dalian. At the urban site, similar annual average concentrations of α-endosulfan and α-HCH were found, both being approximately 4 times as high as those of p,p'-DDT and p,p'-DDE, while at the suburban site, the annual average concentration of α-endosulfan was 2.9 times as high as the average concentrations of α-HCH, p,p'-DDT and p,p'-DDE; concentrations of α-endosulfan, α-HCH and p,p'-DDE achieved annual peaks in summer. Back trajectory analysis revealed that the air concentration of α-endosulfan increased with the input of air masses from the land whereas decreasing air concentration of α-endosulfan at the urban site was associated with air masses from the sea. Pesticides used in local agriculture were identified to be major sources of α-endosulfan at both the urban and suburban sites, though long-range atmospheric transport from other sources might also contribute to atmospheric levels of this chemical over this coastal city. α-endosulfan, α-HCH, p,p'-DDT and p,p'-DDE in the air in Dalian might result from the atmospheric transport of the air masses from northeast area, Shandong peninsula and Korean peninsula. Emission due to "aged" DDT and HCH in contaminated local soils as well as atmospheric long-range transport were likely to be major sources of α-HCH, p,p'-DDT and p,p'-DDE at the suburban site. In addition, a fresh input of α-HCH and p,p'-DDT in the atmosphere could not be excluded in the urban area.     

System Dynamics Modeling and Policy Simulation for Urban Traffic: a Case Study in Beijing

This paper constructs a system dynamics model for simulating the impact of different strategies on urban traffic’s energy consumption and carbon emissions. Based on a case study in Beijing, the model includes three subsystems: (1) urban traffic, (2) population and economy, and (3) energy consumption and carbon emissions. First, the model is used to decompose the impact of different vehicles on energy consumption and carbon emissions. Decomposition results show that private cars have the most significant impact on urban traffic’s energy consumption and carbon emissions; however, total vehicle kilometers traveled by private cars are the smallest among four trip modes. Then, the model is used to simulate different urban traffic policies. Policies are categorized as follows: (a) driving restrictions on vehicle registration numbers, (b) a scheme for vehicle registrations via a lottery system, and (c) development of public transportation infrastructures. Scenario simulation results show that all those measures can reduce energy consumption and carbon emissions. Though the last strategy (c) contains several delays, its effect is more stable and far-reaching. Finally, some recommendations about easing traffic pressure and reducing traffic emissions are given.     

Modelling of Motor Vehicle Fuel Consumption and Emissions Using a Power-Based Model

The performance of a power based fuel consumption and exhaust emissions model for spark ignition vehicles has been evaluated using a large Australian database derived from testing a wide range of in-use cars on a chassis dynamometer. It was also applied to results of on-road fuel consumption measurement using a "floating" car which was driven back and forth on hilly roadways in Sydney with a length of 8.6 km. The model is found to predict the fuel consumption well over the standard drive cycles and also for the floating car. Average exhaust emissions were also well predicted, but, as would be expected, vehicle-to-vehicle correlation is impossible due to the well-known high variability of emissions between nominally identical vehicles.     

An Integrated Multicriteria Decision Analysis System for Reducing Air Emissions from Mining Process

The selection of a best alternative method to minimize air pollution and energy consumption for mine sites is a critical task because it encompasses evaluation of different techniques. The aim of this paper is to select most suitable technology for mining system which helps in reducing air pollution and carbon footprints by implementing the multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) method. The existing methods or frameworks in the mining sector, which have been used in the past to select the sustainable solution, are lacking aid of MCDA, and there is a need to contribute more in this field with a promising decision system. The MCDA method is applied as a probabilistic integrated approach for a mine site in Canada. The analysis involves processing inputs to the Preference Ranking Organization Method for Enrichment Evaluation (PROMETHEE) method which assists in identifying the alternatives, defining the criteria, and thus outranking of the final choice. Moreover, criteria weighting has been determined using analytical hierarchical process (AHP) method. Three categories: reduction of dust/fugitive emission control strategies, reduction in fuel consumption to minimize carbon footprint, and cyanide destruction methods are selected. The probability distributions of criteria weights and output flows are defined by performing uncertainty analysis using the Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). The sensitivity analysis is conducted using Spearman’s rank correlation method and walking criteria weights. The results indicate that the integrated framework provides a reliable way of selecting air pollution control solutions and help in quantifying the impact of different criteria for the selected alternatives.

     

CALRoads模式在上海市典型道路CO扩散预测中的应用

根据上海市市区、郊区典型主干道的气象条件、车流量、车型比例,以及CO小时质量浓度的监测资料,采用CALRoads模式中CALINE4和CAL3QHC模块,对郊区主干道和市区典型路口的适用条件分别进行了验证.结果表明,在稳定的气象条件下,CALINE4模式在模拟周围相对空旷主干道附近的CO质量浓度时,具有较好的结果,将CAL3QHC模式应用于市区典型交叉口,可以得到同监测值相对吻合的模拟结果,但准确性低于郊区.应用CALRoads模型对未来城郊典型道路附近CO高峰小时质量浓度的发展趋势进行了预测,并基于情景分析给出了减少交通污染的对策建议.     

Understanding the sustainable consumption of energy resources in global industrial sector: Evidences from 114 countries

The rapid development of industry, which is an energy-intensive sector, may lead to an increased amount of energy consumption. Energy consumption decoupled from economic growth is one of the statuses towards sustainable development. This study conducted a decoupling analysis between industrial energy consumption (IEC) and industrial economic growth (IEG) to identify their relationship. It was found that among the 114 studied countries, there were 32 countries where strong decoupling occurred during the period of 2000 to 2017, while that of others were yet to come. Further, the key factors influencing the IEC of each country are identified based on the factor-related changes over the 17 years. For the 114 countries, the improvement of industrial energy output (IEO) was the most significant driver for IEC, and population also played its role in IEC increment; the reduction of industrial energy intensity (IEI) was the primary inhibitor for IEC, and the decrease of industrial employment rate slightly turned the IEC down over the period. For promoting the decoupling and less energy consumption in the industry, it is suggested to improve the energy efficiency, decelerate the industrial development, or shift the more energy-intensive industrial sectors to less energy-intensive ones, such as services. The study provides a global perspective for IEC reduction with the evidences of 114 countries, and its findings and policy implications provide the status quo and way forward for the countries aiming at reducing their IEC.     

Land Consumption by Urban Sprawl—A New Approach to Deduce Urban Development Scenarios from Actors’ Preferences

A new modelling approach to urban sprawl dynamics is introduced which allows representing qualitative knowledge on relations between moving actor populations and properties of locations. The results of this Qualitative Attractiveness Migration (QuAM) Model are scenario-like sets of possible future developments of the urban system, much in contrast to quantitative forecasts gained by traditional modelling approaches. QuAM models allow for the interaction between internal dynamics and external influences. The application of the new approach is exemplified by the case of urban sprawl in Leipzig since 1990. It was possible to reproduce the observed qualitative development and to calculate future scenarios. The scenario runs project a new wave of middle class driven residential sprawl and suggest implications for sprawl reducing policy interventions.