Branching processes, Markov chains, and competing risks

This paper re-proves and generalizes results by Hardin and Sweet on the time to absorption in certain Markov chains by using a theorem on the time to extinction in multitype branching processes. Renaming “absorption” as “death” and “state immediately before absorption” as “cause of death” makes possible an interpretation in terms of competing risks. This is of very limited value, however, due to the rather severe mathematical restrictions on the Markov chains at hand.     

A study of effects of ambient urban air pollution using personal samplers; a preliminary report

Air pollution has been associated with an increased incidence of respiratory disease. However, significant differences may exist between air pollution levels measured at conventional fixed monitoring stations and actual levels inhaled by a subject. Furthermore, studies of effects of air pollution might best be done using asthmatics as study subjects, since they have irritable airways. This is a preliminary report of a study using a control and asthmatic group in which effects of air pollution are assessed by sympton and medication diaries and simple pulmonary function tests. Air pollution exposure is measured using a small portable sampler for particulates, SO₂ and NO₂; these samplers are carried by the subject (“personal”) and are situated inside and outside the home. Levels obtained are compared to data obtained from the same type of sampler located at a fixed monitoring station. Preliminary analysis of the data shows that the levels of pollutants are low and there are significant differences between the four air pollution measurements, with weak correlations among the various measurements. In this preliminary report, change in pulmonary function during the day correlates only with personal NO₂ measurements. This suggests the need for estimating air pollution exposure using “personal” samplers, when investigating health effects.     

Consultative mechanisms in Sweden's environment protection policy

The institutional and legislative framework of Swedish environmental protection is presented with special reference to the role of consultation in the policy process. The functions and duties of the National Environment Protection Board, the Franchise Board for Environment Protection, the Environment Advisory Board, and the Product Control Board are outlined. The main thrust of the 1969 Environment Protection Act, the 1972 Hazardous Products Control Act, and the environmental impact assessment requirements of the Planning and Building Legislation is presented. The character of consultation within this framework is also discussed, with reference to the role of public participation and of organized regulated interests. It is found that the main functions of consultation in policy-making are “feeding back on former policy,” “foreseeing future policies,” and “canvassing for consensus.” In the stage of policy clarification, consultation is found to be a means of “catering for compliance” and “creating coherence.” In policy implementation, consultation is an important means of gathering information from parties possibly affected by implementative decisions.     

Pilot field study: Carbon monoxide exposure monitoring in the general population

A pilot field study was conducted with nine members of the general public to measure carbon monoxide exposure using personal monitors. The principal study objectives were to design and evaluate the research protocol and the instrumentation performance for application to the conduct of a large-scale personal monitoring program. Integrated carbon monoxide exposure was monitored and recorded according to type of activity such as “commuting” or “at work” for approximately 45 days by each subject. All subjects except one were able to handle both the equipment and data recording requirements with no significant problems. Actual data recording responsibilities consumed less than 10 min daily. The data consisted of 355 person-days each over 6-h duration, and weekdays only, from which 8-h average personal exposure levels could be computed. The 9 ppm (μL/L) ambient air quality standard was exceeded on 22 person-days. Elevated carbon monoxide concentrations during the commuting activity were frequently associated with the exceedences.     

Noise susceptibility: A comparison of two naval aviator populations

The identification of characteristics of noise-susceptible (S) or noise-resistant (R) individuals is necessary for the development of noise-susceptibility risk profiles. Fifty-six naval aviators, categorized as having either incurred a hearing loss, i.e., hearing threshold levels (HTLs) > 40 dB at 4–8 kHz or retained normal hearing, i.e., HTLs ≤ 25 dB at 125 Hz-8 kHz, after thousands of flight hours were compared along several auditory and non-auditory dimensions. A number of variables occurred differentially in the two groups: Minimal Auditory Intensity Differential (MAID) scores at 2 kHz (p < 0.01) and 4 kHz (p < 0.001); iris pigmentation (blue eyes were over-represented in the S group; p < 0.05); systolic blood pressure (sitting; S group was higher; p < 0.05); calcium, albumin, and LDH levels (higher in the R group; p < 0.05); and present tobacco usage (more S aviators were currently smokers; p < 0.05). The S population also tended (p < 0.10) to exhibit elevated cholesterol and triglyceride levels as well as higher contralateral acoustic reflexes, and to have fewer individuals who had never smoked. Although no classic profile of the S or R individual definitely emerged, results suggested that at least one measurement device (MAID test) may serve as an “early warning” of imminent noise-induced damage. Further research, however, is required to test this possibility.     

Interactions between diesel emissions and gaseous copollutants in photochemical air pollution: Some health implications

A complete assessment of the health effects of diesel emissions must take into account the possible chemical transformations (and associated biological impacts) of particulate organic matter (POM) due to reactions with the many gaseous copollutants which have now been unambiguously demonstrated to be present in atmospheres burdened by photochemical air pollution. These copollutants include the “trace” species, nitric (HNO₃) and nitrous (HONO) acids, the nitrate radical (NO₃), formaldehyde (H₂CO) and formic acid (HCOOH), as well as the criteria pollutants, ozone (O₃) and nitrogen dioxide (NO₂). Techniques for establishing the atmospheric concentrations of the trace pollutants (and their spatial and temporal variations) are briefly described, and we present results of investigations into the reactions of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) coated on filters and exposed to ambient concentrations of O₃ and NO₂. Environmental health implications of these results are discussed and include the potential for sampling “artifacts” and their possible effects on the correlation (or lack thereof) between ambient PAH levels and urban lung cancer rates, as well as the problems associated with understanding the appropriate POM “dose” to be employed in animal testing and assessments of impacts on human health.     

Olfactory and chemical characterization of indoor air. Towards a psychophysical model for air quality

The relationship between the odor strength of total air samples and the odor strengths of the constituents was investigated in three field experiments in an office building and a new preschool. The odor strength was scaled by magnitude estimation according to a master scale principle which results in comparable values for the total and the constituent odors. Between 60 and 120 chemical components were detected by GC/FID in the indoor air samples (N = 66). Most (81%) of the detected components in an air sample were odorous, even though most of them were of the low concentrations. By a method of pattern analysis, chemical as well as odor patterns of indoor air were found to be characteristics of different buildings. From the odor patterns (POG), the “odor print” of the outdoor air associated with the buildings was also recognized in the indoor air. Thus, the “odor print” of an air sample is different from its “chemical print”. A model was found that predicts the overall odor strength of an air sample from the number of FID-detected components most frequently reported to have a strong odor.     

Improving the efficiency of free-jet scrubbers

A free-jet scrubber is an innovative gas cleaner in which the primary liquid/gas contacting takes place in the turbulent mixing zone emanating from a jet nozzle. The first such devices, powered by supersonic steam or air ejectors, were exceptionally effective cleaners but were criticized as being high-energy users. A great reduction in the energy consumption of free-jet scrubbers has been accomplished in the last four years, a feat which may seem in contradiction to the “contacting power rule.” An explanation of what is happening in these devices must take into account the effectiveness with which energy and water are utilized. thereby leading one to a somewhat circular definition of “effective contacting power.” The theoretical implication of this analysis is primarily to remind us that there are many paths between two states and some are more energy efficient than others. The practical value is that such analysis generates information which aids in choosing between several design options, a direct benefit of the various free-jet configurations.     

Efficient ventilation in office rooms

Results from a two-box model for calculation of tracer gas concentrations in rooms are given and consequences of different definitions of “ventilation efficiency” are discussed. Results from three different series of experiments are presented. The first two series were dilution experiments; examples of the results are given and discussed. The third series of tests was performed with one person working at a desk in the test room. Above the person;s head, a tracer gas (N₂O) was injected into the convection plume, with as low momentum as possible. Starting with zero concentration, a test continued until steady-state conditions were established for the concentration levels in the different parts of the room. The tests included simulation of summer, autumn/spring, and winter daytime conditions. The results indicate a tendency towards lower tracer gas concentrations in the “breathing zone” when the supply air (typical flow rate equivalent to two air changes per hour) is brought into the room at a low level as compared to a high level close to the ceiling. The exhaust air terminal device in all tests was situated high in the “corridor” wall.     

Electrostatic precipitator emission and opacity performance control through rapper strategy

The opacity and emission performance of two “identical” cold-side precipitators at a power plant utilizing a Western coal source was investigated through an extensive test program. The test program included establishment of outlet emission versus opacity correlations for the two “identical” units, correlation of rapper strategy (frequency and amplitude) with opacity, and correlation of power-off rapping strategy with opacity. Analysis of the test program data demonstrates that the opacity-emission correlations from the two “identical” units can be significantly different. The potential reasons for the differences between the two units are identified and examined in light of the test program data. Strong correlation of opacity with rapping strategy was developed from the test program. Results demonstrate that an automatic power-off rapping technique can significantly enhance precipitator performance on ash from Western coal.     

Empirical and theoretical evidence concerning the response of the earth's ice and snow cover to a global temperature increase

As a guide to the possible effects of a CO₂-induced warming on the cryosphere, we review the effects of three warm periods in the past, and out theoretical understanding of fluctuations in mountain glaciers, the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, ground ice, sea ice and seasonal snow cover. Between 1890 and 1940 A.D. the glaciated area in Switzerland was reduced by over 25%. In the Hypsithermal, at about 6000 BP, ground ice in Eurasia retreated northward by several hundred kilometres. In the interglacial Stage 5e, at about 120 000 BP, global sea-level rose by over 6 m. Fluctuations of mountain glaciers depend on mesoscale “weather” and on their mechanical response to it. Any melting of the Greenland ice sheet is likely to be slow in human terms. The West Antarctic ice sheet (its base below sea-level) is susceptible to an ungrounding, and such an event may have been the cause of the sea-level rise above. The East Antarctic ice sheet is susceptible to mechanical “surges”, which might be triggered by a warming at its margin. Both an ungrounding and a surge might occupy less than 100 yr, and are potetially the most important ice changes in human terms. Modelling studies suggest that a 5°C warming would remove the Arctic pack ice in summer, and this may be the most significant effect for further climatic change.     

Environmental effects of new herbicides for vegetation control in forestry

Environmental fate of and toxicity data for ammonium ethyl carbamoylphosphonate [fosamine ammonium], N-(phosphonomethyl)glycine [glyphosate], and 3-cyclohexyl-6-(dimethylamino)-1-methyl-1,3,5-triazine-2,4(1H, 3H)-dione [hexazinone] which appear promising for vegetation control in forestry are reviewed. None of the three herbicides is very persistent in soil, with half-lives reported of about 7–10 days for fosamine ammonium, 8–19 weeks for glyphosate, and 1–6 months for hexazinone, depending on soil type and climatic conditions. Degradation in soil is primarily via microbial routes. Whereas hexazinone is a very mobile herbicide (with mobility dependent on soil type), fosamine ammonium and glyphosate are strongly adsorbed and not readily leached in many soil types. Based on bioassay results, the three herbicides exhibit “very low” to “low” toxicity. Fosamine ammonium is not mutagenic and was not teratogenic when fed to pregnant rats at 10,000 ppm. Data on hexazinone indicate no carcinogenic effect in rats, negative in bacterial and mammalian point mutation assays, and not embryotoxic or teratogenic at up to 5000 ppm in diet of rats. The three herbicides have minimum-to-nil effect on soil microorganisms and exhibit little or no potential for bioaccumulation. Limitations of the available data are discussed and suggestions are made for future studies.     

Towards a coherent conceptual framework for emergency preparedness/response and rehabilitation – the application of the new ICRP recommendations given in ICRP 103

In the past, most emphasis in planning for and response to an emergency situation has been placed on selected protective measures in the early phase of an emergency to keep the doses received below levels where severe deterministic health effects can be excluded and/or where the risk of stochastic effects in the population is considered “acceptable”. Less emphasis has been placed on the development of comprehensive protection strategies which include considerations of the consequences of all exposure pathways and all phases, e.g. long-term rehabilitation. In its new publication 103, ICRP proposed a coherent conceptual framework for protection in all types of exposure situations including “emergency exposure situations” and “existing exposure situations”. In the context of developing protection strategies for these exposure situations, the Commission recommends that national authorities set reference levels between, typically, 20 mSv and 100 mSv annual effective dose (emergency exposure situation) and 1 mSv and 20 mSv (existing exposure situation). In order to optimise protection strategies, it is necessary to identify the dominant exposure pathways, the timescales over which the dose will be received, and the effectiveness of available protection options. The characteristics of the development and implementation of such protection strategies is described.     

Impact of European legislation on marketed pesticides — A view from the standpoint of health impact assessment studies

The very significant impact of European legislation (Directive 91/414/EEC) on the authorization of plant protection products is reviewed herein, which has resulted in withdrawal of 704 active substances (AS) out of 889 assessed so far. The list of currently approved 276 AS includes 194 AS “existing” in the market before 1993 and 82 “new” AS introduced during the last 15 years. Results of toxicity characterization of the approved AS are also summarized, utilizing several well-known databases. Although significant data gaps exist for a rather large part of the approved AS, it is found that 84 AS are positive for at least one health effect (after chronic and/or acute exposure) including carcinogenicity, reproductive and neuro-developmental disorders, as well as endocrine disruption. The toxicity characterization results of this study are compared to those of recent assessments by other organizations (KemI, the Swedish Chemicals Agency, and the Pesticide Safety Directorate of the UK), where interpretation and use is made of AS “cut-off” criteria foreseen in new EU legislation. These studies report a comparatively smaller AS number with positive toxicity characterization. The possibility of some additional AS withdrawal in the near future, combined with the rather small rate of new AS introduction (approx. 5 per year) suggest that the list of approved AS over the next 10–15 years may not change very drastically. Consideration of the above trends is necessary and instructive in evaluating results of existing health impact assessment (HIA) studies, as well as in planning new ones. Due to the very drastic change in the number and type of marketed AS, that took place within the past 8–9 years, it is suggested that new HIA studies (based on epidemiological data after year 2000) should focus on a rather short time frame and, therefore, on appropriate cohort groups, e.g. young children. For the same reason, results of epidemiological studies of the past (involving banned AS) should be carefully interpreted and used with caution.     

Chemical dusts, vapours, and fumes causing asthma

Allergic respiratory disease due to common allergens of organic origin is wwell known. Less familiar, but of increasing importance, are chemicals of organic and inorganic nature, met as dusts, vapours, and fumes. Their relevance is shown in occupational respiratory allergic disorders. Confirmation is given by “real life,” simulated, occupational-type provocation tests. Controlled exposure with minute amounts for brief periods, thus closely simulating allergic sensitivity, can precisely identify etiological causes in often complex exposures. The capacity of these widely different agents in different forms to elicit the different patterns of asthmatic reactions, is a pointed example of their potential role, as well as the role of chemical agents in general. The introduction into indoor environments of such materials demands consideration of their possible allergenic ffects and of the need to recognise the various forms of allergic respiratory reaction they may cause.     

Carbon isotopes and sulphur contents as indicators of atmospheric pollution from burning fossil fuels

This paper summarized the study carried out in Krakow, Poland in 1975-76 on the estimated local air pollution as measured by carbon isotopes and total sulphur measurement in plants. Good correlation was found between δ¹⁴C value and the total sulphur (measured by radionuclide excited X-ray fluorescence) in beech leaves collected in the late summer, indicating the common source of both pollutants. Sampling and measurement of σ¹³C in atmospheric CO₂ has shown that σ³C can be used as a pollution indicator only in the winter period when no fluctuations exist ddue to plant respiration. A method of CO₂ sampling using molecular sieve proved to be feasible for instantaneous sampling with no isotope fractionation. The highest pollution by fossil CO₂ was measured in winter (12.8% excess. During spring and summer the average contribution of fossil CO₂ was 4.5 to 5.6%.     

Measuring the radium-226 activity using a multidetector γ-ray coincidence spectrometer

Bиccлoвaнияx вoэмocy;жнocтeф пpимeн eния мeтoдoв coвaдeниф дффeктив нoгo cхeтa иэиuхaтeлeф пoхитpoнoв в б oльщиx oбpaэцax, pнpимeня жидкocт ныф cцинтлляциoнныф cхeтхик 4π для вceгo, cocтoяшиф иэ 2-x дeтeктocy;pныx кaмep 2π. Пpeждe вceгo иэuхaлocв oбpaэoвaниe фoн a, кaк oтвeтнaя peaция в мeтoдe co coвпaдeниф. B peэuлвтaтe импuлвcoв coвпaдeни ф в oбoиx дeтeктopныx кaмepax нaблю энaхитeлвныф uхacтoк фoнa. Иэuхaлacvcy; пoдaвлeни я фoнa пuтa cхeтa пueтa cхeтa aнт иcoвпaдeнeниф, нo этoт мeтoд нe oкaэaлcя uля uлu oхыхныx гaммa-иэлucy;хaтaeлeф. oднaк o, в cлнaяx, кoгпa в oбpaэцax coдepж aлиcв тaкиe иэлuхaтeли пoэитpoнoв, кaк ²²Na и ⁵⁸ co, фoн мoжнo былo энaхитeлвнo пoд aвитв и cхeтнuю cтaтиcтикu нa нa мнoгo юл юхшитв пpимeняя пpимeняя cпoco бы ы coвпaдeниф. Этoт мeтoд нe тoдвкo uмeнвщaeт фoн, нo тaкиe мoнoгaмм-иэлuхaтeли, кaк ¹³⁷Cs ⁴⁰К. Taким oбким oбpaэoм, этoт мeт oд нaпpaшивaeтcя caм coбoф для иэ peния иэлuхaтeлeф пoэитpoнoв в хeлoвeкe, гдe ¹³⁷Cs ⁴⁰К п pиcuтcтвuют, кaк интepфиpuюшиф фoн:.

Zusammenfassung

Ein 4π-Flüssigkeits-“Ganzkörper”-Szintillationszähler, bestehend aus 2π-Detektrortanks wurde dazu verwendet, die mögliche Anwendung von Koinzidenzarbeitsweisen zur wirksamen Zählung von Positronenemittern in grossen Proben zu studieren. Zunächst wurde die Hintergrundemp-findlichkeit für die Koinzidenzform untersucht. Man beobachtete, dass ein ansehnlicher Teil des Hintergrundes von Impulsen in der Koinzidenz in beiden Detektortanks herrührte. Die Möglichkeit einer Unterdrückung des Hintergrundes durch Antikoinzidenzzählung wurde erforscht, aber dies stellte sich als unbrauchbar für eine Verbesserung der Zählstatistik zum Zählen gewöhnlicher Gammaemitter heraus. Wenn die Proben jedoch Positronenemitter wie ²²Na and ⁵⁸Co enthalten, so könnte der Hintergrund weitgehend unterdrückt und die Zählstatistik beträchtlich verbessert werden, wenn man Koinzidenzzählverfahren anwendet. Das Verfahren verminderte nicht nur den Hintergrund, sondern es diskriminierte auch gegenüber solchen Monogammaemittern wie ¹³⁷Cs und ⁴⁰K. Das Verfahren eignet sich somit zur Messung von Positronenemittern im Menschen, wo ¹³⁷Cs und ⁴⁰K als “Störhintergrund” zugegen sind.