气候变化对旱涝事件影响研究进展

从气候变化对水循环及水资源系统影响的角度剖析了气候变化对旱涝事件影响的驱动机制,从气候变化对天气系统、下垫面条件、经济社会需水量等方面的影响梳理了现阶段国内外相关研究进展,并总结了气候变化对旱涝事件影响的评估方法。结果表明:气候变化导致大尺度的大气环流异常,容易引起大范围的持久性旱涝事件;气候变化还可以通过影响地表覆被、土壤特性等下垫面条件加剧旱涝事件的风险;同时,气候变化还将影响经济社会需水量及过程,加剧水资源供需矛盾。     

气候变化背景下我国森林火灾灾害的响应特征及展望

系统阐述了气候变化对森林火灾灾害的影响,论述了当前发生的以气候变暖为主要特征的气候变化背景下,森林火灾灾害对气候变化的响应特征,重点剖析了火行为对气候变化的响应,火险天气与防火期对气候变化的响应,火周期对气候变化的响应。并提出了气候变暖背景下实现碳减排增汇效应的科学的林火管理策略与合理林火管理路径。最后对今后尚需加强的一些重点研究领域及发展方向进行了展望。     

黑碳气溶胶研究概况

黑碳气溶胶是大气气溶胶的重要组成部分,由于其在全球气候变化和区域空气质量中的双重作用,黑碳已经成为目前全球气候变化研究中备受关注的焦点之一。在查阅近年国内外相关文献资料基础上,分析了黑碳气溶胶的来源和源强分布,结果表明工业源和居民生活消费源是大气中黑碳气溶胶最主要的贡献者,全球黑碳排放空间分布不均匀,与区域经济发展和人口密度相一致;总结了黑碳气溶胶的基本特性及其影响,重点探讨了黑碳对气候的影响机理,结果表明黑碳气溶胶既可以通过直接气候效应改变地-气系统的辐射平衡,又可以通过云反射效应、地表下垫面改变效应以及作为云凝结核间接影响区域或全球气候;随后对黑碳气溶胶的典型测量方法的优缺点进行了对比分析;最后介绍了黑碳研究领域中存在的主要问题,并对黑碳气溶胶研究的发展方向进行了展望。     

气候变化对我国农业的可能影响及适应性对策

全球气候变暖已经成了一个不争的事实。在全球气候变化背景下,我国的气温不断增高,降水和极端天气气候事件不断增多。根据气候变化情景,从区域布局、种植结构、农作物产量和品质以及设施农业等方面分析了气候变化对我国农业的可能影响,并提出了我国农业应对气候变化的适应性对策。     

应对气候变暖:为了阻止灾难的脚步

冰川融化、沙尘暴、飓风、干旱、火灾……当人类见证文明的空前繁荣之时,工业污染、温室气体排放、过度砍伐等导致全球气候变化加剧。2009年12月7日,联合国气候变化大会在哥本哈根拉开帷幕,人们热切期盼哥本哈根大会成为人类应对气候变化的历史性转折点。这是2006年拍摄的挪威北部斯瓦尔巴德群岛水域一块浮冰上的北极熊。由于全球气候变暖,这里的积冰正在加速溶化。供图/新华社     

气候变化与自然灾害

气候变化与自然灾害是当今科学研究的两大热点，两者之间在一定程度上具有相关性，但目前要确切地定量计算气候变化对自然灾害的强度和出现频率的影响还很困难。本文在分析气候变化与自然灾害关系的基础上，研究了气候变化对我国自然灾害的影响。研究结果显示：１．在千年尺度上，长江流域的大旱和气候变冷成正相关，而长江流域的大涝以及黄河流域的大旱和大涝与气候冷暖过渡期成正相关；２．在百年尽度上，近１０４２年来，共出现２８１次全国性大旱和大涝，平均每百年出现２７次，在地域分布上以南涝北旱为主；３．就百年至千年尺度的气候变化对自然灾害的影响而言，气候冷冷组合期（１３０１～１９００）易发生全国性大涝，而冷暖组合期（９５０～１３００年，１９０１～１９９１年）易发生全国性大旱。总的来说，冷冷组合期的大旱大涝发生频率明显大于暖期，但不同地区有差异；４．在其它影响方面，台风、地震与海啸灾害在冷暖组合期（２０世纪）均有比冷冷组合期（１４和１９世纪）多的趋势。因此，气候变暖将使防灾任务更加艰巨。     

气候变化对水稻虫害的影响

气候变化对水稻虫害的影响李淑华（中国农科院农业气象研究所，北京１０００８１）摘要温室效应引起的气候变化，将会对水稻害虫的繁殖代数、越冬界限、迁飞规律等生态学特征产生一定的影响。从而造成害虫在田间的危害时间延长，发生程度加重的趋势，应引起广泛的重视。主...     

气候变化背景下沿海城市有管理撤退的适应策略与挑战

近年来，气候变化带来的各种极端灾害事件严重冲击了沿海地区的安全稳定和可持续发展，如何适应气候变化的不利影响成为备受关注的议题。沿海气候变化的适应手段经历了从结构性保护到非结构性保护再到有管理撤退的认知转变。然而，当前对有管理撤退的挑战和对策还缺乏系统分析。该文首先回顾了有管理撤退的基本概念演变，指出撤退作为其他适应策略失败后的补救措施，以自发性和区域性管理为主，并概述了各国有管理撤退的实践现状；其次，讨论了当前有管理撤退面临的问题和发展趋势，如土地矛盾和撤退投资回报率、撤退公平性、文化遗产与社会和感情属性、政府管理和政治风险等；第三，聚焦我国有管理撤退的现状问题和未来研究方向，指出有管理撤退研究在中国仍处于起步阶段，缺乏完整的理论体系和实践，未来需要对概念、撤退阈值和行动规划、政策框架和相关影响进一步分析。前瞻性地对有管理撤退进行研究，可为沿海地区采取积极有效的气候适应行动，实现长期有效的灾害风险治理提供科学依据。     

风险评估在气候变化对农业影响评价中的应用——研究进展

基于风险理论,探讨了气候变化风险的内涵,介绍了可用于气候变化影响评价的风险评估概念框架,并着重总结了风险评估在气候变化对农业影响评价中的应用。随着目前概率型气候情景的广泛应用及利益相关者与公众对影响评估中的不确定性认识的需求,风险评估将在气候变化影响评价中得到更为广泛的应用,气候变化对农业的影响也有望基于风险形式实现终端至终端的评估。同时,当前气候变化农业影响的风险评估研究仍有许多不足之处,真正实现综合全面的评估尚有诸多问题需要解决。     

气候变暖背景下火干扰对森林生态系统碳循环的影响

人类活动所引起的温室效应及由此造成的气候变化和对全球生态环境的影响已受到国际社会的普遍关注。火干扰作为森林生态系统重要的干扰因子,对森林生态系统碳循环产生重要影响以及对未来气候变化的响应更是人们关注的重点。正确理解气候变暖、火干扰与森林生态系统碳循环之间的因果循环关系,了解气候变暖背景下火干扰对森林生态系统碳循环的影响,对制定科学合理的林火管理策略、充分发挥林火管理在森林生态系统碳循环和碳平衡以及缓解碳排放中的作用均有重要的意义。系统论述了气候变暖、火干扰与森林生态系统碳循环之间的逻辑循环关系,并对相关的研究进展进行综述。重点剖析了气候变暖对火干扰的影响,气候变暖背景下火干扰对森林生态系统碳循环的影响,并提出了全球变暖背景下科学有效的林火管理策略与措施,以及今后需要加强的一些研究领域及方向。     

气候变化对长江三角洲海岸带的可能影响

本文利用长江三角洲海岸带的历史资料，讨论了长江三角洲海岸带的历史演变，并对未来海岸的变化作了估计。着重讨论了未来气候变化对长江三角渡海堤、江口通航、江口淡水资源的影响，指出未来全球气候变暖、长江流域降水增加都可能增加对长江三角洲海岸带的影响。最后提出了适应气候变化和减轻影响的措施。     

Present and future economic impacts of climate extremes in the United States

Recent studies have yielded definitive information about the nation's economic impacts from extreme climates, although some sectoral values rely on educated estimates since hard data does not exist. Review of existing measures of the national impacts from weather—climate conditions reveals annual average losses of $36 billion from extremes and gains averaging $26 billion when conditions are favorable (good growing seasons, mild winters, etc.). Comparison of these values with various measures of the national economy reveals that the impacts are relatively small, typically about 1% of the Gross Domestic Product and less than 2% of the federal budget. The current impact information provides a basis for assessing various estimates of the nation's financial impacts resulting from a future climate change due to global warming. Most such estimates predict values similar to the magnitude of current climate impacts. Moreover, most economists attempting such estimates express a large degree of uncertainty about their projections.     

ENSO事件对陕西气候影响的统计分析

根据46a来陕西10个地市气象资料的统计分析,初步揭示了陕西气候变化与厄尔尼诺、拉尼娜等事件的相关关系,认为厄尔尼诺年少雨,拉尼娜年低温多雨。     

全球气候监测业务系统简介

本文重点介绍了国家气象中心实施减灾战略之一的一项重要基础业务一,全球气候监测业务系统。同时指出加强多学科监测的合作研究是加速认识气候变化规律的重要途径。     

Quantified scenarios analysis of drivers and impacts of changing flood risk in England and Wales: 2030–2100

Flood risk to the economy, society and the environment reflects the cumulative effects of environmental and socio-economic change over decades. Long-term scenarios are therefore required in order to develop robust and sustainable flood risk management policies. Quantified national-scale flood risk analysis and expert appraisal of the mechanisms causing change in flood risk have been used to assess flood risk in England and Wales over the period 2030–2100. The assessment involved the use of socio-economic and climate change scenarios. The analysis predicts increasing flood risk unless current flood management policies, practices and investment levels are changed—up to 20-fold increase in economic risk by the 2080s in the scenario with highest economic growth. The increase is attributable to a combination of climate change (in particular increasing precipitation and relative sea level rise in parts of the UK) and increasing socio-economic vulnerability, particularly in terms of household/industrial contents and infrastructure vulnerability. The policy implications of these findings are discussed.     

Characterizing the urban heat island in current and future climates in New Jersey

Climate change caused by increased anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO₂) and other greenhouse gases is a long-term climate hazard with the potential to alter the intensity, temporal pattern, and spatial extent of the urban heat island (UHI) in metropolitan regions. Particular meteorological conditions—including high temperature, low cloud cover, and low average wind speed—tend to intensify the heat island effect. Analyses of existing archived climate data for the vicinities of Newark and Camden, New Jersey indicate urban to suburban/rural temperature differences over the previous half-century. Surface temperatures derived from a Landsat thermal image for each site were also analyzed for spatial patterns of heat islands. Potential interactions between the UHI effect and projected changes in temperature, wind speed, and cloud cover are then examined under a range of climate change scenarios, encompassing different greenhouse gas emissions trajectories. The scenarios include those utilized in the Metropolitan East Coast Regional Assessment of Climate Variability and Change and the A2 and B2 scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES).

The UHI effect was detected in Newark and Camden in both satellite surface-temperature and meteorological station airtemperature records. The average difference in urban—nonurban minimum temperatures was 3.0 °C for the Newark area and 1.5 °C for Camden. Extrapolation of current trends and the selected global climate models (GCMs) project that temperatures in the case study areas will continue to warm in the current century, as they have over the past half-century. An initial analysis of global climate scenarios shows that wind speed may decline, and that cloud cover may increase in the coming decades. These generally small countervailing tendencies suggest that urban—nonurban temperature differences may be maintained under climate change.

Overall warmer conditions throughout the year may extend the spatial and temporal dimensions of the urban-suburban heat complex. The incidence of heat-related morbidity and mortality are likely to increase with interactions between the increased frequency and duration of heat waves and the UHI effect. Camden and Newark will likely be subjected to higher temperatures, and areas experiencing UHI-like conditions and temperature extremes will expand. Thus, urban heat island-related hazard potential is likely to increase in a warmer climate.     

Decreasing the knowledge gap among different socioeconomic status groups on the issue of climate change

Climate change is causing severe negative consequences to small low-lying islands. To mitigate and adapt to climate change, it is important to improve public knowledge on its causes and consequences. As a social issue that needs collective action to address, the knowledge gap among different segments of population would be a barrier to people’s behaviors toward mitigation and adaption to climate change. This study aims to investigate public knowledge acquisition of climate change by revisiting the knowledge gap hypothesis. A nationally representative random computer-assisted telephone interview survey (N?=?1093) was conducted in Singapore. Quantitative analyses revealed that both newspaper reading and television viewing could reduce the knowledge gap between high and low socioeconomic status individuals. We recommend that governments and relevant authorities should utilize mass media to disseminate information and cultivate public understanding of climate change.     

Climate,urbanisation and vulnerability to vector-borne disease in subtropical coastal Australia: Sustainable policy for a changing environment

This paper examines the current health policy response to the management of vector-borne disease (VBD), specifically Ross River (RR) virus, in subtropical coastal Australia. It demonstrates the multi-dimensional nature of the VBD problem and considers the value of more sustainable policy responses. The paper provides an integrated exploration of the incidence of RR virus in the context of socio-biophysical interactions and change, climate variability, and possible enhanced threat due to climate change. The study focuses on two subtropical coastal case study regions in Australia. Collectively, the existing and emerging socio-biophysical interactions in these regionsraise questions as to the future risks and management of RR virus, while climate change adds a significant further dimension. The paper demonstrates the need for the incorporation of environmental planning elements, particularly attention to strategic assessment and planning, into the traditional suite of health policy responses given the multi-dimensional nature of the problem and evident socio-biophysical environmental change.     

1995年气候对交通系统的影响

根据气象部门和交通部门的资料，对１９９５年气候条件对我国交通系统造成的影响进行了分析评述，其中影响最大的是暴雨洪水，其它气候灾害还有雾、雪、风及高温等，使我们对影响交通系统的气候灾害有了进一步的认识。