Improved estimates of certainty in stable-isotope-based methods for tracking migratory animals.

The use of stable-hydrogen isotopes (deltaD) has become a common tool for estimating geographic patterns of movement in migratory animals. This method relies on broad and relatively predictable geographic patterning in deltaD values of precipitation, but these patterns are not estimated without error. In addition, deltaD measurements are relatively imprecise, particularly for organic tissue. Most models for estimating geographic locations have ignored these sources of error. Common modeling approaches include regression, range-matching, and likelihood-based assignment tests (including discriminant analysis). Here, we show the benefits of a simple stochastic extension to likelihood-based assignment tests that incorporates two estimable sources of error and describe the resulting influence on the certainty of assigning breeding origins for wintering American Redstarts (Setophaga ruticilla), a small Nearctic-Neotropical migratory bird. Through simulation, we incorporated both spatial interpolation error associated with models of deltaD in precipitation and analytical error associated with the measurement of deltaD in tissue samples. In general, assignments that did not include these sources of error fell within the ranges of the stochastic results, but the difference in proportion of birds assigned to any one breeding region varied by as much as 54%. To explore how the distribution of assignments generated from error models influenced the application of these results, we developed a simple model of winter habitat loss. We removed the proportion of Redstarts wintering at a particular site from the global population and then used the isotope-based assignments to predict the resulting population declines for each breeding region. This gave distributions of change in population sizes, some of which included no change or even a population increase. The sources of error we modeled may challenge the degree of certainty in the use of stable-isotope-based data on connectivity to predict population dynamics of migratory animals. We suggest that stronger inference will result from incorporating these sources of error into future studies that use deltaD or other stable isotopes to infer the geographic origin of individuals.     

Birds as predators in tropical agroforestry systems

Insectivorous birds reduce arthropod abundances and their damage to plants in some, but not all, studies where predation by birds has been assessed. The variation in bird effects may be due to characteristics such as plant productivity or quality, habitat complexity, and/or species diversity of predator and prey assemblages. Since agroforestry systems vary in such characteristics, these systems provide a good starting point for understanding when and where we can expect predation by birds to be important. We analyze data from bird exclosure studies in forests and agroforestry systems to ask whether birds consistently reduce their arthropod prey base and whether bird predation differs between forests and agroforestry systems. Further, we focus on agroforestry systems to ask whether the magnitude of bird predation (1) differs between canopy trees and understory plants, (2) differs when migratory birds are present or absent, and (3) correlates with bird abundance and diversity. We found that, across all studies, birds reduce all arthropods, herbivores, carnivores, and plant damage. We observed no difference in the magnitude of bird effects between agroforestry systems and forests despite simplified habitat structure and plant diversity in agroforests. Within agroforestry systems, bird reduction of arthropods was greater in the canopy than the crop layer. Top-down effects of bird predation were especially strong during censuses when migratory birds were present in agroforestry systems. Importantly, the diversity of the predator assemblage correlated with the magnitude of predator effects; where the diversity of birds, especially migratory birds, was greater, birds reduced arthropod densities to a greater extent. We outline potential mechanisms for relationships between bird predator, insect prey, and habitat characteristics, and we suggest future studies using tropical agroforests as a model system to further test these areas of ecological theory.     

Predicting barrier passage and habitat suitability for migratory fish species

Fish migrate to spawn, feed, seek refuge from predators, and escape harmful environmental conditions. The success of upstream migration is limited by the presence of barriers that can impede the passage of fish. We used a spatially explicit modeling strategy to examine the effects of barriers on passage for 21 native and non-native migratory fish species and the amount of suitable habitat blocked for each species. Spatially derived physical parameter estimates and literature based fish capabilities and tolerances were used to predict fish passage success and habitat suitability. Both the fish passage and the habitat suitability models accurately predicted fish presence above barriers for most common, non-stocked species. The fish passage model predicted that barriers greater than or equal to 6 m block all migratory species. Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) was expected to be blocked the least. The habitat suitability model predicted that low gradient streams with intact habitat quality were likely to support the highest number of fish species. The fish passage and habitat suitability models were intended to be used by environmental managers as strategy development tools to prioritize candidate dams for field assessment and make decisions regarding the management of migratory fish populations.     

Factors influencing the movement biology of migrant songbirds confronted with an ecological barrier

Whether or not a migratory songbird embarks on a long-distance flight across an ecological barrier is likely a response to a number of endogenous and exogenous factors. During autumn 2008 and 2009, we used automated radio tracking to investigate how energetic condition, age, and weather influenced the departure timing and direction of Swainson’s thrushes (Catharus ustulatus) during migratory stopover along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico. Most birds left within 1 h after sunset on the evening following capture. Those birds that departed later on the first night or remained longer than 1 day were lean. Birds that carried fat loads sufficient to cross the Gulf of Mexico generally departed in a seasonally appropriate southerly direction, whereas lean birds nearly always flew inland in a northerly direction. We did not detect an effect of age or weather on departures. The decision by lean birds to reorient movement inland may reflect the suitability of the coastal stopover site for deposition of fuel stores and the motivation to seek food among more extensive forested habitat away from the barrier.     

Pattern-oriented modeling of bird foraging and pest control in coffee farms

We develop a model of how land use and habitat diversity affect migratory bird populations and their ability to suppress an insect pest on Jamaican coffee farms. Bird foraging—choosing which habitat patch and prey to use as prey abundance changes over space and time—is the key process driving this system. Following the “pattern-oriented” modeling strategy, we identified nine observed patterns that characterize the real system's dynamics. The model was designed so that these patterns could potentially emerge from it. The resulting model is individual-based, has fine spatial and temporal resolutions, represents very simply the supply of the pest insect and other arthropod food in six habitat types, and includes foraging habitat selection as the only adaptive behavior of birds. Although there is an extensive heritage of bird foraging theory in ecology, most of it addresses only the individual level and is too simple for our context. We used pattern-oriented modeling to develop and test foraging theory for this across-scale problem: rules for individual bird foraging that cause the model to reproduce a variety of patterns observed at the system level. Four alternative foraging theories were contrasted by how well they caused the model to reproduce the nine characteristic patterns. Four of these patterns were clearly reproduced with the “null” theory that birds select habitat randomly. A version of classical theory in which birds stay in a patch until food is depleted to some threshold caused the model to reproduce five patterns; this theory caused lower, not higher, use of habitat experiencing an outbreak of prey insects. Assuming that birds select the nearby patch providing highest intake rate caused the model to reproduce all but one pattern, whereas assuming birds select the highest-intake patch over a large radius produced an unrealistic distribution of movement distances. The pattern reproduced under none of the theories, a negative relation between bird density and distance to trees, appears to result from a process not in the model: birds return to trees at night to roost. We conclude that a foraging model for small insectivorous birds in diverse habitat should assume birds can sense higher food supply but over short, not long, distances.     

Changes in bird‐migration patterns associated with human‐induced mortality

Many bird populations have recently changed their migratory behavior in response to alterations of the environment. We collected data over 16 years on male Great Bustards (Otis tarda), a species showing a partial migratory pattern (sedentary and migratory birds coexisting in the same breeding groups). We conducted population counts and radio tracked 180 individuals to examine differences in survival rates between migratory and sedentary individuals and evaluate possible effects of these differences on the migratory pattern of the population. Overall, 65% of individuals migrated and 35% did not. The average distance between breeding and postbreeding areas of migrant individuals was 89.9 km, and the longest average movement of sedentary males was 3.8 km. Breeding group and migration distance had no effect on survival. However, mortality of migrants was 2.4 to 3.5 times higher than mortality of sedentary birds. For marked males, collision with power lines was the main cause of death from unnatural causes (37.6% of all deaths), and migratory birds died in collisions with power lines more frequently than sedentary birds (21.3% vs 6.3%). The percentage of sedentary individuals increased from 17% in 1997 to 45% in 2012. These results were consistent with data collected from radio‐tracked individuals: The proportion of migratory individuals decreased from 86% in 1997–1999 to 44% in 2006–2010. The observed decrease in the migratory tendency was not related to climatic changes (temperatures did not change over the study period) or improvements in habitat quality (dry cereal farmland area decreased in the main study area). Our findings suggest that human‐induced mortality during migration may be an important factor shaping the migration patterns of species inhabiting humanized landscapes.     

Conserving international coastal habitat networks on migratory waterfowl flyways

Migratory waterfowl depend on habitat networks at local, national and international scales for their survival. Coastal habitats are key areas for many waterfowl. Different species use different biotopes and in different places, so overall many parts of the coastal resource are important. As well as national conservation efforts, waterfowl conservation is increasingly focussed worldwide on collaborative international conservation, catalysed by several measures e.g. the Ramsar Convention, the EC Conservation of Wild Birds Directive, and the Bonn Convention Agreement on the Conservation of African/Eurasian Migratory Waterbirds. Several international conservation plans are under development for single species, but a more effective approach may be to develop plans, for assemblages of migratory birds with similar habitat requirements. All such plans must incorporate future sustainable use of the habitats on which the birds depend. Yet migratory bird and coastal habitat conservation is still often approached separately, despite the two being now closely linked to the development of the Natura 2000 site network in the European Community. Implementing the 1992 EC Habitats Directive requires the selection of coastal habitat sites for designation, set in national and international contexts of resource distribution. International coastal habitat inventories are needed to underpin this process. Combining such inventories with assessment of the flyway habitat requirements of waterfowl species and assemblages offers great potential for identifying international coastal habitat networks that meet the objectives of both habitat and migratory waterfowl conservation.     

Characteristics of Important Stopover Locations for Migrating Birds: Remote Sensing with Radar in the Great Lakes Basin

Abstract:  A preliminary stage in developing comprehensive conservation plans involves identifying areas used by the organisms of interest. The areas used by migratory land birds during temporal breaks in migration (stopover periods) have received relatively little research and conservation attention. Methodologies for identifying stopover sites across large geographic areas have been, until recently, unavailable. Advances in weather-radar technology now allow for evaluation of bird migration patterns at large spatial scales. We analyzed radar data (WSR-88D) recorded during spring migration in 2000 and 2001 at 6 sites in the Great Lakes basin (U.S.A.). Our goal was to link areas of high migrant activity with the land-cover types and landscape contexts corresponding to those areas. To characterize the landscapes surrounding stopover locations, we integrated radar and land-cover data within a geographic information system. We compared landscape metrics within 5 km of areas that consistently hosted large numbers of migrants with landscapes surrounding randomly selected areas that were used by relatively few birds during migration. Concentration areas were characterized by 1.2 times more forest cover and 9.3 times more water cover than areas with little migrant activity. We detected a strong negative relationship between activity of migratory birds and agricultural land uses. Examination of individual migration events confirmed the importance of fragments of forested habitat in highly altered landscapes and highlighted large concentrations of birds departing from near-shore terrestrial areas in the Great Lakes basin. We conclude that conservation efforts can be more effectively targeted through intensive analysis of radar imagery.     

A genoscape-network model for conservation prioritization in a migratory bird

Migratory animals are declining worldwide and coordinated conservation efforts are needed to reverse current trends. We devised a novel genoscape-network model that combines genetic analyses with species distribution modeling and demographic data to overcome challenges with conceptualizing alternative risk factors in migratory species across their full annual cycle. We applied our method to the long distance, Neotropical migratory bird, Wilson's Warbler (Cardellina pusilla). Despite a lack of data from some wintering locations, we demonstrated how the results can be used to help prioritize conservation of breeding and wintering areas. For example, we showed that when genetic, demographic, and network modeling results were considered together it became clear that conservation recommendations will differ depending on whether the goal is to preserve unique genetic lineages or the largest number of birds per unit area. More specifically, if preservation of genetic lineages is the goal, then limited resources should be focused on preserving habitat in the California Sierra, Basin Rockies, or Coastal California, where the 3 most vulnerable genetic lineages breed, or in western Mexico, where 2 of the 3 most vulnerable lineages overwinter. Alternatively, if preservation of the largest number of individuals per unit area is the goal, then limited conservation dollars should be placed in the Pacific Northwest or Central America, where densities are estimated to be the highest. Overall, our results demonstrated the utility of adopting a genetically based network model for integrating multiple types of data across vast geographic scales and better inform conservation decision-making for migratory animals.     

A multi-scale examination of stopover habitat use by birds

Most of our understanding of habitat use by migrating land birds comes from studies conducted at single, small spatial scales, which may overemphasize the importance of intrinsic habitat factors, such as food availability, in shaping migrant distributions. We believe that a multi-scale approach is essential to assess the influence of factors that control en route habitat use. We determined the relative importance of eight variables, each operating at a habitat-patch, landscape, or regional spatial scale, in explaining the differential use of hardwood forests by Nearctic-Neotropical land birds during migration. We estimated bird densities through transect surveys at sites near the Mississippi coast during spring and autumn migration within landscapes with variable amounts of hardwood forest cover. At a regional scale, migrant density increased with proximity to the coast, which was of moderate importance in explaining bird densities, probably due to constraints imposed on migrants when negotiating the Gulf of Mexico. The amount of hardwood forest cover at a landscape scale was positively correlated with arthropod abundance and had the greatest importance in explaining densities of all migrants, as a group, during spring, and of insectivorous migrants during autumn. Among landscape scales ranging from 500 m to 10 km radius, the densities of migrants were, on average, most strongly and positively related to the amount of hardwood forest cover within a 5 km radius. We suggest that hardwood forest cover at this scale may be an indicator of habitat quality that migrants use as a cue when landing at the end of a migratory flight. At the patch scale, direct measures of arthropod abundance and plant community composition were also important in explaining migrant densities, whereas habitat structure was of little importance. The relative amount of fleshy-fruited trees was positively related and was the most important variable explaining frugivorous migrant density during autumn. Although constraints extrinsic to habitat had a moderate role in explaining migrant distributions, our results are consistent with the view that food availability is the ultimate factor shaping the distributions of birds during stopover.     

Setting conservation priorities for migratory networks under uncertainty

Conserving migratory species requires protecting connected habitat along the pathways they travel. Despite recent improvements in tracking animal movements, migratory connectivity remains poorly resolved at a population level for the vast majority of species, thus conservation prioritization is hampered. To address this data limitation, we developed a novel approach to spatial prioritization based on a model of potential connectivity derived from empirical data on species abundance and distance traveled between sites during migration. We applied the approach to migratory shorebirds of the East Asian‐Australasian Flyway. Conservation strategies that prioritized sites based on connectivity and abundance metrics together maintained larger populations of birds than strategies that prioritized sites based only on abundance metrics. The conservation value of a site therefore depended on both its capacity to support migratory animals and its position within the migratory pathway; the loss of crucial sites led to partial or total population collapse. We suggest that conservation approaches that prioritize sites supporting large populations of migrants should, where possible, also include data on the spatial arrangement of sites.     

Habitat selection predicts genetic relatedness in an alpine ungulate

Landscape heterogeneity plays an integral role in shaping ecological and evolutionary processes. Despite links between the two disciplines, ecologists and population geneticists have taken different approaches to evaluating habitat selection, animal movement, and gene flow across the landscape. Ecologists commonly use statistical models such as resource selection functions (RSFs) to identify habitat features disproportionately selected by animals, whereas population genetic approaches model genetic differentiation according to the distribution of habitat variables. We combined ecological and genetic approaches by using RSFs to predict genetic relatedness across a heterogeneous landscape. We constructed sex- and season-specific resistance surfaces based on RSFs estimated using data from 102 GPS (global positioning system) radio-collared mountain goats (Oreamnos americanus) in southeast Alaska, USA. Based on mountain goat ecology, we hypothesized that summer and male surfaces would be the best predictors of relatedness. All individuals were genotyped at 22 microsatellite loci, which we used to estimate genetic relatedness. Summer resistance surfaces derived from RSFs were the best predictors of genetic relatedness, and winter models the poorest. Mountain goats generally selected for areas close to escape terrain and with a high heat load (a metric related to vegetative productivity and snow depth), while avoiding valleys. Male- and female-specific surfaces were similar, except for winter, for which male habitat selection better predicted genetic relatedness. The null models of isolation-by-distance and barrier only outperformed the winter models. This study merges high-resolution individual locations through GPS telemetry and genetic data, that can be used to validate and parameterize landscape genetics models, and further elucidates the relationship between landscape heterogeneity and genetic differentiation.     

How complex do models need to be to predict dispersal of threatened species through matrix habitats?

Persistence of species in fragmented landscapes depends on dispersal among suitable breeding sites, and dispersal is often influenced by the "matrix" habitats that lie between breeding sites. However, measuring effects of different matrix habitats on movement and incorporating those differences into spatially explicit models to predict dispersal is costly in terms of time and financial resources. Hence a key question for conservation managers is: Do more costly, complex movement models yield more accurate dispersal predictions? We compared the abilities of a range of movement models, from simple to complex, to predict the dispersal of an endangered butterfly, the Saint Francis' satyr (Neonympha mitchellii francisci). The value of more complex models differed depending on how value was assessed. Although the most complex model, based on detailed movement behaviors, best predicted observed dispersal rates, it was only slightly better than the simplest model, which was based solely on distance between sites. Consequently, a parsimony approach using information criteria favors the simplest model we examined. However, when we applied the models to a larger landscape that included proposed habitat restoration sites, in which the composition of the matrix was different than the matrix surrounding extant breeding sites, the simplest model failed to identify a potentially important dispersal barrier, open habitat that butterflies rarely enter, which may completely isolate some of the proposed restoration sites from other breeding sites. Finally, we found that, although the gain in predicting dispersal with increasing model complexity was small, so was the increase in financial cost. Furthermore, a greater fit continued to accrue with greater financial cost, and more complex models made substantially different predictions than simple models when applied to a novel landscape in which butterflies are to be reintroduced to bolster their populations. This suggests that more complex models might be justifiable on financial grounds. Our results caution against a pure parsimony approach to deciding how complex movement models need to be to accurately predict dispersal through the matrix, especially if the models are to be applied to novel or modified landscapes.     

Pigeon homing: sun compass use in the southern hemisphere

Although the sun compass of birds is based on learning the sun's arc during development, it was unclear whether birds can use the sun when its apparent movement is reversed, in particular, whether northern birds that have been introduced into the southern hemisphere can use the southern sun. To answer this question, clock-shift experiments were performed with local homing pigeons in Auckland, New Zealand (37°S). In three fast-shift tests and two slow-shift tests, the experimental birds showed deflections from the untreated controls that were the mirror images of those observed in the northern hemisphere. These results clearly show that homing pigeons in New Zealand use a sun compass that is adapted to the situation in the southern hemisphere. The learning processes establishing the compensation mechanisms thus appear to be free of constraints concerning the direction of the sun's movement. Differences from recent findings with migratory birds, where the direction of celestial rotation proved of crucial importance for establishing the migratory direction, are discussed: the differences may arise from the different orientation tasks, in particular, from the involvement of innate information in establishing the migratory direction. Received: 13 November 1997 / Accepted after revision: 28 February 1998     

Cover Caption

Cover: Radar imagery can be used to map the locations from which migratory birds depart and to highlight important stopover sites. Shown are movements of long-distance migrants, such as the Blackburnian Warbler ( Dendroica fusca ), detected during spring migration near Buffalo, New York. Warbler photo by Charles Eiseman. See pages 440–448.     

Optimal Management of a Multispecies Shorebird Flyway under Sea‐Level Rise

Every year, millions of migratory shorebirds fly through the East Asian–Australasian Flyway between their arctic breeding grounds and Australasia. This flyway includes numerous coastal wetlands in Asia and the Pacific that are used as stopover sites where birds rest and feed. Loss of a few important stopover sites through sea‐level rise (SLR) could cause sudden population declines. We formulated and solved mathematically the problem of how to identify the most important stopover sites to minimize losses of bird populations across flyways by conserving land that facilitates upshore shifts of tidal flats in response to SLR. To guide conservation investment that minimizes losses of migratory bird populations during migration, we developed a spatially explicit flyway model coupled with a maximum flow algorithm. Migratory routes of 10 shorebird taxa were modeled in a graph theoretic framework by representing clusters of important wetlands as nodes and the number of birds flying between 2 nodes as edges. We also evaluated several resource allocation algorithms that required only partial information on flyway connectivity (node strategy, based on the impacts of SLR at nodes; habitat strategy, based on habitat change at sites; population strategy, based on population change at sites; and random investment). The resource allocation algorithms based on flyway information performed on average 15% better than simpler allocations based on patterns of habitat loss or local bird counts. The Yellow Sea region stood out as the most important priority for effective conservation of migratory shorebirds, but investment in this area alone will not ensure the persistence of species across the flyway. The spatial distribution of conservation investments differed enormously according to the severity of SLR and whether information about flyway connectivity was used to guide the prioritizations. With the rapid ongoing loss of coastal wetlands globally, our method provides insight into efficient conservation planning for migratory species. Gestión Óptima de una Ruta Migratoria de Múltiples Especies de Aves Costeras Sometida a Incremento del Nivel del Mar     

Source-Sink Models and the Problem of Habitat Degradation: General Models and Applications to the Yellowstone Grizzly

I used source-sink population models to explore the consequences of habitat degradation for populations living on good and degraded habitats linked by movement. In particular, I modeled the conversion of land from good habitat quality supporting positive population growth to a degraded condition in which there was population decline. I found that with high rates of movement between good and bad quality areas populations require relatively large amounts of good habitat to remain stable. However, low movement rates resulted in greater sensitivity of population growth to habitat loss. Even small amounts of habitat degradation could result in rapid changes in overall population growth rates depending upon the rates of population increase and decline in the two habitat types. I also developed and simulated an age-structured model for grizzly bears ( Ursus arctos horribilis ) existing in good and degraded habitats and fit this model to data from the Yellowstone grizzly population. I used this model to predict the ability to detect crucial amounts of habitat degradation from census data and found that when degradation is slow (e.g., 1% conversion of good to poor habitat per year), more than a decade may pass between crucial amounts of degradation—beyond which populations begin long-term decline—and its detection, even if census data were unrealistically good. Thus these simple models indicate that, at least in some circumstances, habitat degradation can have rapid and severe impacts on population dynamics and traditional monitoring programs may not be adequate to detect the consequences of degradation.     

Avoidance Behavior by Prairie Grouse: Implications for Development of Wind Energy

Abstract:  New wind-energy facilities and their associated power transmission lines and roads are being constructed at a rapid pace in the Great Plains of North America. Nevertheless, little is known about the possible negative effects these anthropogenic features might have on prairie birds, one of the most threatened groups in North America. We examined radiotelemetry tracking locations of Lesser Prairie-Chickens ( Tympanuchus pallidicinctus ) and Greater Prairie-Chickens ( T. cupido ) in two locations in Oklahoma to determine whether these birds avoided or changed movement behavior near power lines and paved highways. We tracked 463 Lesser Prairie-Chickens (15,071 tracking locations) and 216 Greater Prairie-Chickens (5,750 locations) for 7 and 3 years, respectively. Individuals of both species avoided power lines by at least 100 m and Lesser Prairie-Chickens avoided one of the two highways by 100 m. Prairie-chickens crossed power lines less often than expected if birds moved randomly ( p < 0.05) but did not appear to perceive highways as a movement barrier ( p > 0.05). In addition, home ranges of Lesser Prairie-Chickens overlapped the power line less often than would be expected by chance placement of home ranges; this result was supported by kernel-density estimation of home ranges. It is likely that new power lines (and other tall structures such as wind turbines) will lead to avoidance of previously suitable habitat and will serve as barriers to movement. These two factors will likely increase fragmentation in an already fragmented landscape if wind energy development continues in prairie habitats .     

Migration path annotation: cross-continental study of migration-flight response to environmental conditions

Understanding the movements of animals is pivotal for understanding their ecology and predicting their survival in the face of rapid global changes to climate, land use, and habitats, thus facilitating more effective habitat management. Migration by flying animals is an extreme form of movement that may be especially influenced by weather. With satellite telemetry studies, and the growing availability of information about the Earth's weather and land surface conditions, many data are collected that can advance our understanding about the mechanisms that shape migrations. We present the track annotation approach for movement data analysis using information about weather from the North American Reanalysis data set, a publicly available, regional, high-resolution model-observation hybrid product, and about topography, from a publicly available high-resolution digital elevation model (DEM). As a case study, we present the analysis of the response to environmental conditions in three contrasting populations of Turkey Vultures (Cathartes aura) across North America, tracked with a three-dimensional GPS-based sensor. Two populations in the east and west coasts of the United States responded similarly to weather, indicating use of both slope and thermal soaring. Continental-interior, "Plains populations," exhibited a different migratory pattern primarily indicative of thermal soaring. These differences help us understand the constraints and behaviors of soaring migrants. The track annotation approach allowed large-scale comparative study of movement in an important migratory species, and will enable similar studies at local to global scales.     

Use of opportunistic sightings and expert knowledge to predict and compare Whooping Crane stopover habitat

Predicting a species’ distribution can be helpful for evaluating management actions such as critical habitat designations under the U.S. Endangered Species Act or habitat acquisition and rehabilitation. Whooping Cranes (Grus americana) are one of the rarest birds in the world, and conservation and management of habitat is required to ensure their survival. We developed a species distribution model (SDM) that could be used to inform habitat management actions for Whooping Cranes within the state of Nebraska (U.S.A.). We collated 407 opportunistic Whooping Crane group records reported from 1988 to 2012. Most records of Whooping Cranes were contributed by the public; therefore, developing an SDM that accounted for sampling bias was essential because observations at some migration stopover locations may be under represented. An auxiliary data set, required to explore the influence of sampling bias, was derived with expert elicitation. Using our SDM, we compared an intensively managed area in the Central Platte River Valley with the Niobrara National Scenic River in northern Nebraska. Our results suggest, during the peak of migration, Whooping Crane abundance was 262.2 (90% CI 40.2?3144.2) times higher per unit area in the Central Platte River Valley relative to the Niobrara National Scenic River. Although we compared only 2 areas, our model could be used to evaluate any region within the state of Nebraska. Furthermore, our expert‐informed modeling approach could be applied to opportunistic presence‐only data when sampling bias is a concern and expert knowledge is available.