The Impact of California Phase 2 Reformulated Gasoline on Real-World Vehicle Emissions

ABSTRACT

In mid-1996, California implemented Phase 2 Reformulated Gasoline (RFG). The new fuel was designed to further decrease emissions of hydrocarbons (HC_s), oxides of nitrogen (NO_x), carbon monoxide (CO), sulfur dioxide (SO₂), and other toxic species. In addition, it was formulated to reduce the ozone-forming potential of the HCs emitted by vehicles. Previous studies have observed that emissions from on-road vehicles can differ significantly from those predicted by mobile source emissions models, and so it is important to quantify the change in emissions in a real-world setting. In October 1995, prior to the introduction of California Phase 2 RFG, the Desert Research Institute (DRI) performed a study of vehicle emissions in Los Angeles' Sepulveda Tunnel. This study provided a baseline against which the results of a second experiment, conducted in July 1996, could be compared to evaluate the impact of California Phase 2 RFG on emissions from real-world vehicles. Compared with the 1995 experiment, CO and NO_x emissions exhibited statistically significant decreases, while the decrease in non-methane hydrocarbon emissions was not statistically significant.

Changes in the speciated HC emissions were evaluated. The benzene emission rate decreased by 27% and the overall emission rate of aromatic compounds decreased by 22% comparing the runs with similar speeds. Emissions of alkenes were virtually unchanged; however, emissions of combustion related unsaturates (e.g., acetylene, ethene) increased, while heavier alkenes decreased. The emission rate of methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) exhibited a larger increase. Overall changes in the ozone-forming potential of the emissions were not significantly different, with the increased contributions to reactivity from paraffins, ole-fins, and MTBE being offset by a large decrease in reactivity due to aromatics.     

An assessment of the impact of climate change on air quality at two UK sites

Possible effects of climate change on air quality are studied for two urban sites in the UK, London and Glasgow. Hourly meteorological data were obtained from climate simulations for two periods representing the current climate and a plausible late 21st century climate. Of the meteorological quantities relevant to air quality, significant changes were found in temperature, specific humidity, wind speed, wind direction, cloud cover, solar radiation, surface sensible heat flux and precipitation. Using these data, dispersion estimates were made for a variety of single sources and some significant changes in environmental impact were found in the future climate. In addition, estimates for future background concentrations of NO_x, NO₂, ozone and PM₁₀ upwind of London and Glasgow were made using the meteorological data in a statistical model. These showed falls in NO_x and increases in ozone for London, while a fall in NO₂ was the largest percentage change for Glasgow. Other changes were small. With these background estimates, annual-average concentrations of NO_x, NO₂, ozone and PM₁₀ were estimated within the two urban areas. For London, results averaged over a number of sites showed a fall in NO_x and a rise in ozone, but only small changes in NO₂ and PM₁₀. For Glasgow, the changes in all four chemical species were small. Large-scale background ozone values from a global chemical transport model are also presented. These show a decrease in background ozone due to climate change. To assess the net impact of both large scale and local processes will require models which treat all relevant scales.     

The global impact of ozone on agricultural crop yields under current and future air quality legislation

In this paper we evaluate the global impact of surface ozone on four types of agricultural crop. The study is based on modelled global hourly ozone fields for the year 2000 and 2030, using the global 1°×1° 2-way nested atmospheric chemical transport model (TM5). Projections for the year 2030 are based on the relatively optimistic “current legislation (CLE) scenario”, i.e. assuming that currently approved air quality legislation will be fully implemented by the year 2030, without a further development of new abatement policies. For both runs, the relative yield loss due to ozone damage is evaluated based on two different indices (accumulated concentration above a 40 ppbV threshold and seasonal mean daytime ozone concentration respectively) on a global, regional and national scale. The cumulative metric appears to be far less robust than the seasonal mean, while the seasonal mean shows satisfactory agreement with measurements in Europe, the US, China and Southern India and South-East Asia.Present day global relative yield losses are estimated to range between 7% and 12% for wheat, between 6% and 16% for soybean, between 3% and 4% for rice, and between 3% and 5% for maize (range resulting from different metrics used). Taking into account possible biases in our assessment, introduced through the global application of “western” crop exposure–response functions, and through model performance in reproducing ozone-exposure metrics, our estimates may be considered as being conservative.Under the 2030 CLE scenario, the global situation is expected to deteriorate mainly for wheat (additional 2–6% loss globally) and rice (additional 1–2% loss globally). India, for which no mitigation measures have been assumed by 2030, accounts for 50% of these global increase in crop yield loss. On a regional-scale, significant reductions in crop losses by CLE-2030 are only predicted in Europe (soybean) and China (wheat).Translating these assumed yield losses into total global economic damage for the four crops considered, using world market prices for the year 2000, we estimate an economic loss in the range $14–$26 billion. About 40% of this damage is occurring in China and India. Considering the recent upward trends in food prices, the ozone-induced damage to crops is expected to offset a significant portion of the GDP growth rate, especially in countries with an economy based on agricultural production.     

Examination of the impact of photoexcited NO2 chemistry on regional air quality

Impact of the excited nitrogen dioxide (NO₂¹) chemistry on air quality in the U.S. is examined using the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model for a summer month. Model simulations were conducted with and without the NO₂¹ chemistry. The largest impact of the NO₂¹ chemistry in the eastern U.S. occurred in the northeast and in the western U.S. occurred in Los Angeles. While the single largest daily maximum 8-h ozone (O₃) increased by 9 ppbv in eastern U.S. and 6 ppbv in western U.S., increases on most days were much lower. No appreciable change in model performance statistics for surface-level O₃ predictions relative to measurements is noted between simulations with and without the NO₂¹ chemistry. Based on model calculations using current estimates of tropospheric emission burden, the NO₂¹ chemistry can increase the monthly mean daytime hydroxyl radicals (OH) and nitrous acid (HONO) by a maximum of 28% and 100 pptv, respectively.     

The Effect of Reformulated Gasoline on Ambient Carbon Monoxide Concentrations in Southeastern Wisconsin

Abstract

Reformulated gasoline (RFG) contains oxygen additives such as methyl tertiary butyl ether or ethanol. The additives enable vehicles to burn fuel with a higher air/fuel ratio, thereby lowering the emission of carbon monoxide (CO) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs). Because VOCs react with sunlight to form ozone (O₃), the Clean Air Act requires severe O₃ nonattainment areas such as southeastern Wisconsin to use RFG. On July 17, 2001, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) granted Milwaukee, WI, and Chicago, IL, a waiver from the VOC reduction requirement of Phase II RFG. The VOC reduction requirement was lowered from 27.4% of the 1990 baseline fuel to 25.4%. The assumption was that ethanol-blended RFG would lower summertime CO concentrations sufficiently to offset the increased VOC emissions. The waiver is estimated to increase VOC emissions by ～0.8%, or 0.4 t of VOC on a hot summer weekday. This study evaluates whether RFG has been effective in lowering southeastern Wisconsin ambient CO concentrations. Three years of ambient CO data before RFG was introduced were compared with the first three years of ambient CO data after RFG was introduced. This paper also evaluates how the meteorology, vehicle inspection/maintenance program, vehicle miles traveled, and stationary source emissions influence CO concentrations. The winter decrease in ambient CO concentrations was found to be statistically significant, while the summer data showed no statistically significant change, indicating that RFG is most effective lowering ambient CO concentrations in cold weather.     

环境空气质量评价的普适指数公式

在适当设定空气污染物的基准值和用相对于基准值的空气污染物的“相对”值情况下,采用S型曲线表示空气污染物对环境空气质量的危害程度,并应用遗传算法优化公式中的参数,得出了一个对多种空气污染物通用的环境空气质量评价的普适指数公式。借助于折衷型激励功效函数将单基污染物分指数加权为综合指数。该公式形式简单,容量计算、评价结果精度较高,且具有可比性。     

The impact of an 8 h ozone air quality standard on ROG and NOx controls in Southern California

The new National Ambient Air Quality Standard for ozone in the US uses 8 h averaging for the concentration. Based on the 1993 ambient data for Southern California, 8 h averaging has a moderate tendency to move the location of the peak ozone concentration east of the location of the peak 1 h ozone concentration. Reducing the area-wide peak 8 h ozone concentration to 80 ppb would require an effective reduction of the area-wide peak 1 h ozone concentration to around 90 ppb. The Urban Airshed Model with improved numerical solvers, meteorological input based on a mesoscale model and an adjusted emissions inventory was used to study the effect of reactive organic gases (ROG) and NO_x controls on daily-maximum and peak 8 h ozone concentrations under the 26–28 August 1987 ozone episodic conditions in Southern California. The NO_x disbenefit remains prominent for the case of 8 h ozone concentration but is somewhat less prominent, especially when areal ozone exposure is considered, than the case for 1 h ozone concentration. The role of two indicators – O₃/NO_y and H₂O₂/HNO₃ – for NO_x- and ROG-sensitivity for 1 and 8 h ozone concentrations were also studied. In general, the indicator trends are consistent with model predictions, but the discriminating power of the indicators is rather limited.     

Variability of ozone air quality indicators in selected metropolitan statistical areas

This article analyzes numerical variability in ozone air quality data to understand how this variability affects the number of violations seen each year in metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs). Three commonly cited violation indices are used: 1) the annual number of expected exceedances averaged over 3 years is greater than 1; 2) the n+ 1th hourly value in n years of data is greater than 0.12 ppm; and 3) the annual number of expected exceedances is greater than 1. Only the first index is consistent with applicable regulations. The analyses indicate that about 23 percent of all MSAs with valid data had one or more change in their ozone violation status between 1979 and 1987. This change in status occurred for approximately 7 percent of all MSA-years of available data. This statistic was about one-third of the value usually obtained when the two incorrect, but commonly used, criteria of ozone violations are used.     

Economic damages of ozone air pollution to crops using combined air quality and GIS modelling

This study aims at presenting a combined air quality and GIS modelling methodological approach in order to estimate crop damages from photochemical air pollution, depict their spatial resolution and assess the order of magnitude regarding the corresponding economic damages. The analysis is conducted within the Greater Thessaloniki Area, Greece, a Mediterranean territory which is characterised by high levels of photochemical air pollution and considerable agricultural activity. Ozone concentration fields for 2002 and for specific emission reduction scenarios for the year 2010 were estimated with the Ozone Fine Structure model in the area under consideration. Total economic damage to crops turns out to be significant and estimated to be approximately 43 M€ for the reference year. Production of cotton presents the highest economic loss, which is over 16 M€, followed by table tomato (9 M€), rice (4.2 M€), wheat (4 M€) and oilseed rape (2.8 M€) cultivations. Losses are not spread uniformly among farmers and the major losses occur in areas with valuable ozone-sensitive crops. The results are very useful for highlighting the magnitude of the total economic impacts of photochemical air pollution to the area’s agricultural sector and can potentially be used for comparison with studies worldwide. Furthermore, spatial analysis of the economic damage could be of importance for governmental authorities and decision makers since it provides an indicative insight, especially if the economic instruments such as financial incentives or state subsidies to farmers are considered.     

论城市空气环境质量评估模式的完善

城市空气环境质量评估应包含科学监测数据的代表性核查、基本要素尺度的确定和环境质量报告书基本内容的规范.社会学评估及人群健康核查可作为科学监测的有效验证手段;而基本要素的尺度确定包括合适的时间尺度、空间尺度和受体的暴露程度.当污染比较严重时,适合采用较大的时间尺度,污染较轻时采用较小的时间尺度.建议按照采用空气环境质量区的概念考虑空间尺度,并采用与时间尺度对应的概率来表示监测点的代表性.受体的暴露程度可采用特定时间尺度的二级空气环境质量覆盖率表示.城市空气环境质量报告书的类型应当多样化,基本内容应当包括监测点位和监测频率描述、数据处理方法描述、数据代表性评价、环境质量评估结果和环境质量改善建议.     

On the forest fires and the analysis of air quality data and total atmospheric ozone

In Canada about 1.3 million hectares (M ha) of forests are destroyed by wildfires each year, and about 63 % of all these fires are man-caused. During the 1980 and 1981 fire seasons, however, about 10 M ha were damaged; estimated annual emissions from forest fires were ~ 224 million tonnes (M t) of CO₂; and over 22 M t of CO, total suspended particulates (TSP), hydrocarbons (HC), nitrogen oxides (NO_x), etc.One of the major problems resulting from these forest fires was the severe reduction of visibility over large areas. Daily values of TSP recorded at Fort McMurray, Alberta were in the range of 163–257 μg m⁻³, while TSP observed at Edmonton, about 850km downstream from large fires, were in the range of 134–220 μg m⁻³. Nevertheless, surface ozone (O₃) and total O₃ in vertical air columns had evidently decreased in the area affected by smoke plumes. It is plausible that the O₃ depletion might have occurred in the lower troposphere from the overwhelming existence of forest fire smoke in the region.     

An assessment of the emissions inventory processing systems EMS-2001 and SMOKE in grid-based air quality models

In the United States, emission processing models such as Emissions Modeling System-2001 (EMS-2001), Emissions Preprocessor System-Version 2.5 (EPS2.5), and the Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE) model are currently being used to generate gridded, hourly, speciated emission inputs for urban and regional-scale photochemical models from aggregated pollutant inventories. In this study, two models, EMS-2001 and SMOKE, were applied with their default internal data sets to process a common inventory database for a high ozone (O3) episode over the eastern United States using the Carbon Bond IV (CB4) chemical speciation mechanism. A comparison of the emissions processed by these systems shows differences in all three of the major processing steps performed by the two models (i.e., in temporal allocation, spatial allocation, and chemical speciation). Results from a simulation with a photochemical model using these two sets of emissions indicate differences on the order of +/- 20 ppb in the predicted 1-hr daily maximum O3 concentrations. It is therefore critical to develop and implement more common and synchronized temporal, spatial, and speciation cross-reference systems such that the processes within each emissions model converge toward reasonably similar results. This would also help to increase confidence in the validity of photochemical grid model results by reducing one aspect of modeling uncertainty.     

Dynamic evaluation of a regional air quality model: Assessing the emissions-induced weekly ozone cycle

Air quality models are used to predict changes in pollutant concentrations resulting from envisioned emission control policies. Recognizing the need to assess the credibility of air quality models in a policy-relevant context, we perform a dynamic evaluation of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system for the “weekend ozone effect” to determine if observed changes in ozone due to weekday-to-weekend (WDWE) reductions in precursor emissions can be accurately simulated. The weekend ozone effect offers a unique opportunity for dynamic evaluation, as it is a widely documented phenomenon that has persisted since the 1970s. In many urban areas of the Unites States, higher ozone has been observed on weekends than weekdays, despite dramatically reduced emissions of ozone precursors (nitrogen oxides [NO_x] and volatile organic compounds [VOCs]) on weekends. More recent measurements, however, suggest shifts in the spatial extent or reductions in WDWE ozone differences. Using 18 years (1988–2005) of observed and modeled ozone and temperature data across the northeastern United States, we re-examine the long-term trends in the weekend effect and confounding factors that may be complicating the interpretation of this trend and explore whether CMAQ can replicate the temporal features of the observed weekend effect. The amplitudes of the weekly ozone cycle have decreased during the 18-year period in our study domain, but the year-to-year variability in weekend minus weekday (WEWD) ozone amplitudes is quite large. Inter-annual variability in meteorology appears to influence WEWD differences in ozone, as well as WEWD differences in VOC and NO_x emissions. Because of the large inter-annual variability, modeling strategies using a single episode lasting a few days or a few episodes in a given year may not capture the WEWD signal that exists over longer time periods. The CMAQ model showed skill in predicting the absolute values of ozone concentrations during the daytime. However, early morning NO_x concentrations were underestimated and ozone levels were overestimated. Also, the modeled response of ozone to WEWD differences in emissions was somewhat less than that observed. This study reveals that model performance may be improved by (1) properly estimating mobile source NO_x emissions and their temporal distributions, especially for diesel vehicles; (2) reducing the grid cell size in the lowest layer of CMAQ; and, (3) using time-dependent and more realistic boundary conditions for the CMAQ simulations.     

An assessment of the impact of ambient ozone on field-grown crops in New Jersey using the EDU method: part 2-soybean (Glycine max (L.) Merr.)

The yields of eleven commercially grown soybean cultivars were compared in ethylenediurea (EDU)-treated and non-treated field plots in New Brunswick, New Jersey, over a 4 year period. No statistically significant difference between treatments was found for any cultivar; the inference being ambient ozone did not adversely affect soybean yield. Succeeding field experiments supported this interpretation of the data. 'Sanilac' white bean, a legume known to be more sensitive to O(3) than soybean, was found to produce a significantly greater yield in EDU-treated than non-treated plots, unlike a companion planting of 'Williams 82' soybean which did not exhibit the differential response. The results indicated that the specific EDU protocol used in the soybean experiments is capable of detecting an ozone effect in a legume. Moreover, in a concurrent greenhouse experiment the yield of EDU-treated Sanilac white bean was not significantly different from non-treated plants in the absence of ozone pollution. In a dose-response field experiment during a year of unusually high O(3) pollution, yield of 'Williams 82' increased slightly with each EDU increment up to 500 ppm and decreased at 1000 ppm. The difference between non-treated and EDU-treated plants, however, was not statistically significant. There was no evidence to suggest that the EDU concentration (500 ppm) used in previous soybean experiments reduced seed yield. Fortuitously, the tolerance of commercially-grown soybean to ambient ozone is at least partially conditioned by the practce of not irrigating the crop. The New Jersey results are in agreement with reports from Maryland, Georgia and Tennessee in which an adverse impact of ambient O(3) was not found in soybean, but contrary to a current predictive model.     

Retrospective assessment of air quality management practices in Taiwan

In 1995, Taiwan's Environmental Protection Administration (EPA/TW) instituted a policy of levying emission taxes on polluters in order to combat the rampant national issue of pollution. Since that time, pollution control strategies, tightening exhaust emission standards for industry, improvements in fuel quality, and new stricter vehicle emission standards, etc., have been implemented. This study evaluates the effectiveness of these measures and examines the improvement of Taiwan's air quality. In this paper, we conduct a detailed analysis of change in the concentrations of pollutants (SO₂, NO_x and particulate matter [PM]) between two three-year periods (from 1996 to1998 and from 2000 to 2002). The pollution levels were generally lower in the latter period. Concentrations at 14 EPA/TW stations in central Taiwan were simulated and source apportionment analyses in three of Central Taiwan's largest cities were conducted using a trajectory transfer-coefficient air quality model. Correlation coefficients (r) between simulations and observations for the monthly means of the concentrations of SO₂, NO_x, PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ during the study periods at the 14 stations are 0.56, 0.63, 0.70 and 0.31, respectively. The sulfur control policy greatly reduced SO₂ concentration island-wide, a stringent emission standard put into place for gasoline vehicles reduced NO_x concentration along highways, and an emissions tax placed on construction sites, as well as a regular program for road-dust sweeping, reduced primary particulate matter. Among all of the pollution abatement policies implemented, the most effective method for reducing PM_2.5 concentrations in the three largest cities involved the reduction of fine ammonium sulfate aerosols from point sources (56–63% of net PM_2.5 reduction). The next largest reduction was attributed to a diminishment in primary PM_2.5 emanating from point sources (27–56% of net PM_2.5 reduction). Secondary particulate matter, especially sulfate, was reduced from distances up to 150 km leeward of major pollution point sources such as Taichung Power Plant.     

Assessment of air quality benefits from national air pollution control policies in China. Part II: Evaluation of air quality predictions and air quality benefits assessment

Following the meteorological evaluation in Part I, this Part II paper presents the statistical evaluation of air quality predictions by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA)’s Community Multi-Scale Air Quality (Models-3/CMAQ) model for the four simulated months in the base year 2005. The surface predictions were evaluated using the Air Pollution Index (API) data published by the China Ministry of Environmental Protection (MEP) for 31 capital cities and daily fine particulate matter (PM_2.5, particles with aerodiameter less than or equal to 2.5 μm) observations of an individual site in Tsinghua University (THU). To overcome the shortage in surface observations, satellite data are used to assess the column predictions including tropospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) column abundance and aerosol optical depth (AOD). The result shows that CMAQ gives reasonably good predictions for the air quality.The air quality improvement that would result from the targeted sulfur dioxide (SO₂) and nitrogen oxides (NO_x) emission controls in China were assessed for the objective year 2010. The results show that the emission controls can lead to significant air quality benefits. SO₂ concentrations in highly polluted areas of East China in 2010 are estimated to be decreased by 30–60% compared to the levels in the 2010 Business-As-Usual (BAU) case. The annual PM_2.5 can also decline by 3–15 μg m^?3 (4–25%) due to the lower SO₂ and sulfate concentrations. If similar controls are implemented for NO_x emissions, NO_x concentrations are estimated to decrease by 30–60% as compared with the 2010 BAU scenario. The annual mean PM_2.5 concentrations will also decline by 2–14 μg m^?3 (3–12%). In addition, the number of ozone (O₃) non-attainment areas in the northern China is projected to be much lower, with the maximum 1-h average O₃ concentrations in the summer reduced by 8–30 ppb.