The Outcome of Northern Fur Seal Harvesting: The Results of Calibration of Mathematical Models Based on Observation Data (the Example of Tyulenii Island Population)

Tendencies in the dynamics of harvested northern fur seal (Callorhinus ursinus) population on the Tyulenii Island have been analyzed in detail. The results show that retardation of reproduction (decrease in the numbers of pups) and decline in the survival of young females (up to 3 years of age) by the late 1980s resulted in a reduction of the total number of females and a significant increase in the proportion of older females. This tendency changed during the later observation period (after 1988–1989) due to increase in the survival of young females: the female population has gradually recovered, with the proportion of young females increasing at the expense of old females (aged over 10 years). The age composition of males has also changed: the proportion of young animals has decreased, while that of large mature males (bulls) has increased. Moreover, the number of bulls continues to increase and has already exceeded the level that formerly provided for the well-being of the population. This, a paradoxical situation has arisen: the numbers of females and bulls are increasing, whereas pup production remains at a low level.

     

Demographic structure of Siberian roe deer (Capreolus pygargus Pall.) population in central Yakutia

The dynamics of the sex and age structure of Siberian roe deer in central Yakutia has been analyzed over the period from 1998 to 2011. In the snowy winter of 2004, mass migration and high mortality of the animals were recorded. The following shift of the adult sex ratio in favor of females and increase in the proportion of calves provided for rapid population recovery. Climate warming, accompanied by increase in the amount of snow, has impaired living conditions for Siberian roe deer. Realization of the species reproductive potential is restrained by natural and anthropogenic elimination factors, and prospects for future population growth are poor.     

A Method for Forecasting the Dates of Mass Calving and Some Characteristics of the Rut and Calving in the Kalmyk Population of Saiga (Saiga tatarica L.)

A method for forecasting the dates of calving in the saiga population on the basis of average fetal body weight is proposed. The method is based on the relationship between the number of days before calving and the average weight of fetuses, which obviates the necessity of determining fetal age and exact gestation period in this species. The average length of gestation, the dates of the rut in the years studied, and the age of females that have mated immediately upon the onset of the rut and before its cessation have been determined. It is shown that the duration of mass calving depends on the proportion of mature males in the population.     

Dynamics of phenotypic traits and intrapopulation processes in great tit (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Parus major</Emphasis> L.) populations of the Middle Ural

Variability of the length of the white area on the outermost quill feathers of the great tit from two cities in the Middle Ural has been investigated. Dynamics of the average length of the white area in the birds from the city of Asbest reproduced the dynamics observed in the city of Yekaterinburg with a one-year lag in the females and a two-year lag in the males. Phenotypic changes in the great tit population did not occur simultaneously in the whole population, but rather moved along the living range with a certain velocity (50–60 km/year for the females and 25–30 km/year for the males). The results obtained are discussed in view of the concepts of population biology.     

Female territoriality in small rodents: Interrelations with local population persistence

Samples of small rodent populations inhabiting Crabapple Island on Beldany Lake in NE Poland revealed that Clethrionomys glareolus was continously present there, whereas Apodemus flavicollis and Microtus agrestis appeared, stayed for some period, vanished and reappeared. It appears that sexually mature females of the bank vole are strictly territorial, their numbers are limited, and immature individuals hardly disperse at high population size. Sexually mature females of the yellow-necked mouse seem to be territorial only at low population numbers, and their numbers increase linearly with population size. Sexually mature females of the field vole exhibit high level of aggregation, and their numbers increase in streight line with growing population size. We discuss the idea that different social organization of the rodent populations is connected with various strategies (sedentary and nomadic) supporting local population persistence.     

Growth rate,reproductive capacity,and survival rate of European water voles taken from natural populations at different phases of the population cycle

Growth rate, reproductive characteristics, and survival rate of European water voles taken from the population at the peak, decline, depression, and increase phases of population cycle were compared under standard vivarium conditions. In November to March, the growth rate of decline-phase males was higher, while that of decline-phase females was lower than in other animals. Decline-phase males were also more successful in reproduction than males taken at other phases. The survival rate of decline-phase females was reduced in the winter period.     

Genomic instability in the bank vole: Population-ecological aspects

Chromosome aberration frequency in relation to population dynamics and demographic parameters was studied for six years in a bank vole population in the Middle Urals. The frequencies of structural chromosome aberrations, chromatid gaps, aneuploidy, and polyploidy in males and females and in animals of different ages did not differ significantly. In the breeding period, the frequencies of structural aberrations and changes in chromosome number increased in the somatic cells of voles. Highly significant differences between the levels of chromosome instability in different years manifested a tendency toward a negative correlation with population size.     

Effect of Hunting on the Reproduction of the Sable Population

Russian Journal of Ecology - Analysis of hunting samples of the Kamchatka sable population for 2001–2013 has revealed changes in the reproductive parameters of females over the period from...     

Variability of Demographic Parameters in a Cyclic Population of the Bank Vole (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Clethrionomys glareolus</Emphasis>)

Analysis of demographic parameters in a local bank vole population has shown that different relationships exist between them. The level of population abundance is directly correlated with the proportion of sexually mature juveniles, the length of the breeding season, and the age of overwintered individuals. The duration of the breeding season shows a delayed dependence on population abundance in the previous year. Variation in the average age of overwintered voles at different phases of the population cycle is characterized by a delayed dependence on the length of the breeding season in the previous year. Intrinsic factors generate the cyclic dynamics of parameters, while extrinsic factors can modify their dynamics.     

Dynamics of motor asymmetry profiles in striped field mouse (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Apodemus agrarius</Emphasis> pall.) populations

The ratios between individuals with different signs of motor asymmetry (right-pawed, left-pawed, and ambidextrous) were estimated in two urban populations of striped field mice. Right-pawed mice were prevailing in both populations. An increase in the stress of regulatory system (stress index) in mice from these populations was accompanied by a shift of the asymmetry profile towards a greater proportion of left-pawed mice. The ratio between the numbers of right-pawed and non-right-pawed animals varied with time with a period close to that of the population dynamics. Apparently, the changes in the asymmetry profiles reflected population rearrangement: dominance of animals with a specific set of physiological, ecological, and behavioral characteristics gave way to an increased proportion of animals with a different set of characteristics. Qualitative differences between right- and left-pawed animals are evidenced by the specific characteristics of behavior and humoral immunity found in animals differing in motor lateralization.     

Long-term Dynamics of Population Parameters of the <Emphasis Type="Italic">Aporrectodea caliginosa</Emphasis> Earthworm in an Annually Flooded Alder Forests in the Voronezh Nature Reserve

The 20-year dynamics of Aporrectodea caliginosa spring population parameters—the average density (ind./0.25 m²) and proportion of nonreproductive individuals (among earthworms found in 12 soil samples)— and the 10-year dynamics of their summer and autumn values were studied in an annually flooded alder forest in the Voronezh reserve. Three complete 3-year cycles and one complete 6-year cycle were revealed in the 20-year dynamics of spring population density. The 20-year series of average values of spring population density and proportion of nonreproductive individuals were found to be closely correlated with each other. A close correlation was also revealed between the 10-year series of summer density values and the corresponding dynamic series of summer precipitation.     

Specific Features of the Dynamics of Murine Rodent Communities under the Effects of Urbanization: 2. Maintenance of Population Size

The reproduction dynamics of nonsynanthropic rodents living in urbanized areas was compared with that of rodents from natural communities. The number of females in a community and the number of embryos and placental spots per female were estimated. The mechanisms providing for the maintenance of population size were different in different habitats. In particular, the urban communities of murine rodents proved to have a higher reproductive potential.     

The Toad-Headed Agama Phrynocephalus guttatus (Reptilia: Agamidae): The Correlates of Survival in a Translocated Population in the Southwestern Kalmyk Republic

Observations of a translocated population of toad-headed agamas (Phrynocephalus guttatus) in the south of the Kalmyk Republic (1998–2001) have shown that seasonal differences in animal survival are manifested only in juveniles and the survival rate of juveniles is higher than that of adult individuals. A significant correlation between survival rate and sex is also characteristic only of juveniles: survival rate is higher in females than in males. In adult males, survival positively correlates with the level of activity; in juvenile males, with body size. In adult females, survival inversely correlates with body size and weight.     

雅鲁藏布江异齿裂腹鱼生活史对策和种群资源利用现状

2008年8月至2009年8月在西藏雅鲁藏布江中游采集到异齿裂腹鱼（Schizothorax oconnori）1 126尾，对其生活史对策和种群资源利用现状进行了研究。结果显示：异齿裂腹鱼的总死亡系数（Z）雌性为0.090/a，雄性为0112/a；自然死亡系数（M）雌雄分别为0053/a和0064/a；捕捞死亡系数（F）雌雄分别为0037/a和0048/a；开发率（E）雌雄分别为0415/a和0428/a。以达氏鳇（Huso dauncus）和尖头塘鳢（Eleotris oxycephaoa）作为参照物，运用模糊聚类进行分析，表明异齿裂腹鱼属于比较典型的K 选择类型鱼类。在现捕捞死亡系数、现起捕年龄和现自然死亡系数下，异齿裂腹鱼的繁殖潜力比雌雄分别为5280%和5164%，都大于目标参考点40%。通过单位补充量亲鱼生物量模型分析，显示目前雅鲁藏布江中游异齿裂腹鱼种群资源的开发水平较为合理     

What are distributed lag models of particulate matter air pollution estimating when there are populations of frail individuals?

The three-state (healthy, frail, and dead) population model is commonly used in time-series investigations of mortality displacement and particulate matter air pollution (PM). In this paper, the author proposes a new population model, called the mixture population model, that by allowing PM to have differential effects on individuals in the population, extends the population models currently used in investigations of mortality displacement. Using this new model, the properties of distributed lag models (DLM) of PM are investigated. In particular, the author derives a relationship between the parameters of the proposed population model and the estimates obtained from a DLM fitted to mortality arising from the model. This relationship provides insight into the interrelationships between the size of the frail population, the number of lags of PM included in a DLM and the proportion of the effect of PM on the healthy population that is estimable. The relationship will guide and contextualize future investigations by providing researchers with the knowledge to assess the consequences of the number of lags of PM included in a DLM in terms of what they can plausibly infer about the effect of PM on mortality based on this choice of lag.     

中国人口结构对碳排放量影响研究

从人口结构角度探讨碳排放问题,有利于正确判断和把握影响碳排放量的人口因素,有的放矢地制定碳减排政策,应对我国经济发展方式的转变有着重要的理论和现实意义.本文利用我国1995-2007年碳排放量、人口总数、人口的城市化率、老龄化率和反映人口消费结构的恩格尔系数第二产业从业人口比重等时间序列数据,运用协整理论、格兰杰因果检验和多元回归模型作为分析工具,对我国人口结构与碳排放量之间的关系做了实证分析.结果发现:①1995-2007年间,人口结构中的人口城市化率、人口的消费结构、第二产业从业人口比重对碳排放量均存在正向影响,而人口规模对碳排放量的影响在模型中却表现为负效应;②相对于人口规模,人口的结构特征对碳排放量的影响越来越大,其中人口的城市化率对碳排放量的正向影响最大,说明中国的碳排放量与城市化的进程存在着密切关系;③人口的老龄化对二氧化碳排放量具有负效应,人口老龄化的加快对长期碳排放有抑制作用,所以在未来实现碳减排会逐渐成为可能.最后,针对分析结果,探讨了未来我国的碳减排策略,以期能有效地控制人口因素对我国碳排放增长的影响.     

苏州市与温州市不同经济模式下流动人口的空间特征比较

我国正经历着一个巨大的人口流动潮，其主要流向是中西部向东部发达地区流动，农村地区向城镇密集的大中城市地区流动。发达地区的经济模式不尽相同。不同模式下地区流动人口的流向也存在着一定差异。分析比较不同发达地区的流动人口特征，对当地经济政策、产业定位、管理制度等方面均有着非常重要的指导作用。以发达地区流动人口的空间特征为研究目标，以最具代表性的“苏南模式”的苏州市和“温州模式”的温州市两个城市作为研究对象，比较总结两城市的流动人口空间特征与差异，可以看出：苏州市以人口流入为主，温州市流入流出人口数量持平；苏州市吸引外来人口的范围不如温州市广；苏州市城市中流动人口所占比例高过温州市。此外，还对不同经济模式下流动人口空间特征对地区经济发展产生的影响进行了总结，并且给出结论，以期能够对地区的经济发展起到一定的指导和促进作用。     

江苏省人口规模、结构对碳排放的影响分析

将人口结构因素纳入STIRPAT模型,利用江苏省1982~2010年的相关数据运用统计和计量方法对影响碳排放的人口总量、人口城市化、老龄人口比重、家庭规模、人均消费额、碳排放强度等相关因素进行实证分析。结果表明：家庭规模具有显著的负效应;在显著的正向影响因素中,老龄人口比重弹性最大,其它依次为人均消费额、人口总量、人口城市化水平、碳排放强度。在考虑人口结构情况下,碳排放的人口规模弹性小于1,缺乏弹性,说明人口总量对江苏碳排放的影响开始放缓;人口年龄结构对碳排放的影响逐渐显现,特别是老龄人口比重已经超过人口规模,成为促进碳排放的第一驱动因素;人口城市化进程和人均消费额直接加剧了碳排放,以碳排放强度表示技术进步对抑制碳排放有一定的作用,但不显著。针对分析结果,探讨了江苏省未来低碳发展的应对之策     

Decomposition of factors influencing carbon emissions in the region of Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei,based on the perspective of terminal energy consumption

In order to analyze the factors influencing carbon emissions in the region of Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei and to explore the pathways to developing a low-carbon economy, this paper begins with the terminal energy consumption of three industries and residential consumption, and constructs an identical equation which is composed of population size, level of economic development, energy intensity, the proportion of energy consumption, energy structure, and the coefficient of carbon emissions. Based on the data of terminal energy consumption during 2000–2012, various factors are analyzed and their contribution is measured by Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI). The results show that the levels of population and economy have a positive driving effect while energy intensity, energy structure, and carbon intensity have a negative driving effect; the proportion of energy consumption had a negative driving effect prior to 2006, then changed to positive. Among suggestions for a low-carbon economy are controlling population size, improving the quality of economic development, supporting research into new energy technology, accelerating regional integration and optimizing industrial structure, and enhancing environmental protection and spreading the concept of a low-carbon economy.     

山地农业种植结构演变特征及其调控途径分析——以贵州省为例

为分析山地农业种植结构的演变特征及其主要驱动因子,制定种植结构的调控途径,采用C-PCA耦合模型(典型主成分分析)对贵州省1949~2013年种植结构演变的15个驱动因子进行分析。结果表明:(1)贵州省1949~2013年种植结构逐渐向市场导向型转变,经济作物比重上升,粮食作物比重下降,粮食作物和经济作物产量分别以7.24%和2.95%的速率增长;(2)通过C-PCA耦合模型的贡献率得出种植结构演变的主要驱动因子为总人口、城市化水平、仓储运输业比重、年均气温、年降水量和农业人口比重,其对应累计贡献率达86.04%;(3)调控山地农业种植结构,不仅需要发展山地高效复合型农业,提高种植系统抗灾能力,还需借助农产品生产、加工、销售云平台实现农业的可持续发展,从而为山地农业经济的发展提供重要支撑。