Biomass burning losses of carbon estimated from ecosystem modeling and satellite data analysis for the Brazilian Amazon region

To produce a new daily record of gross carbon emissions from biomass burning events and post-burning decomposition fluxes in the states of the Brazilian Legal Amazon (Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatistica (IBGE), 1991. Anuario Estatistico do Brasil, Vol. 51. Rio de Janeiro, Brazil pp. 1–1024). We have used vegetation greenness estimates from satellite images as inputs to a terrestrial ecosystem production model. This carbon allocation model generates new estimates of regional aboveground vegetation biomass at 8-km resolution. The modeled biomass product is then combined for the first time with fire pixel counts from the advanced very high-resolution radiometer (AVHRR) to overlay regional burning activities in the Amazon. Results from our analysis indicate that carbon emission estimates from annual region-wide sources of deforestation and biomass burning in the early 1990s are apparently three to five times higher than reported in previous studies for the Brazilian Legal Amazon (Houghton et al., 2000. Nature 403, 301–304; Fearnside, 1997. Climatic Change 35, 321–360), i.e., studies which implied that the Legal Amazon region tends toward a net-zero annual source of terrestrial carbon. In contrast, our analysis implies that the total source fluxes over the entire Legal Amazon region range from 0.2 to 1.2 Pg C yr⁻¹, depending strongly on annual rainfall patterns. The reasons for our higher burning emission estimates are (1) use of combustion fractions typically measured during Amazon forest burning events for computing carbon losses, (2) more detailed geographic distribution of vegetation biomass and daily fire activity for the region, and (3) inclusion of fire effects in extensive areas of the Legal Amazon covered by open woodland, secondary forests, savanna, and pasture vegetation. The total area of rainforest estimated annually to be deforested did not differ substantially among the previous analyses cited and our own.     

Estimating trace gas and aerosol emissions over South America: Relationship between fire radiative energy released and aerosol optical depth observations

Contemporary human activities such as tropical deforestation, land clearing for agriculture, pest control and grassland management lead to biomass burning, which in turn leads to land-cover changes. However, biomass burning emissions are not correctly measured and the methods to assess these emissions form a part of current research area. The traditional methods for estimating aerosols and trace gases released into the atmosphere generally use emission factors associated with fuel loading and moisture characteristics and other parameters that are hard to estimate in near real-time applications. In this paper, fire radiative power (FRP) products were extracted from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) fire products and new South America generic biomes FRE-based smoke aerosol emission coefficients were derived and applied in 2002 South America fire season. The inventory estimated by MODIS and GOES FRP measurements were included in Coupled Aerosol-Tracer Transport model coupled to the Brazilian developments on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (CATT-BRAMS) and evaluated with ground truth collected in Large Scale Biosphere–Atmosphere Smoke, Aerosols, Clouds, rainfall, and Climate (SMOCC) and Radiation, Cloud, and Climate Interactions (RaCCI). Although the linear regression showed that GOES FRP overestimates MODIS FRP observations, the use of a common external parameter such as MODIS aerosol optical depth product could minimize the difference between sensors. The relationship between the PM_2.5μm (Particulate Matter with diameter less than 2.5 μm) and CO (Carbon Monoxide) model shows a good agreement with SMOCC/RaCCI data in the general pattern of temporal evolution. The results showed high correlations, with values between 0.80 and 0.95 (significant at 0.5 level by student t test), for the CATT-BRAMS simulations with PM_2.5μm and CO.     

Biomass Burning in the Amazon-Fertilizer for the Mountaineous Rain Forest in Ecuador (7 pp)

Background Biomass burning is a source of carbon, sulfur and nitrogen compounds which, along with their photochemically generated reaction products, can be transported over very long distances, even traversing oceans. Chemical analyses of rain and fogwater samples collected in the mountaineous rain forest of south Ecuador show frequent episodes of high sulfate and nitrate concentration, from which annual deposition rates are derived comparable to those found in polluted central Europe. As significant anthropogenic sources are lacking at the research site it is suspected that biomass burning upwind in the Amazon basin is the major source of the enhanced sulfate and nitrate imput. Methods Regular rain and fogwater sampling along an altitude profile between 1800 and 3185 m has been carried out in the Podocarpus National Park close to the Rio SanFrancisco (3°58'S, 79°5'W) in southern Ecuador. pH values, electrical conductivity and chemical ion composition were measured at the TUM-WZW using standard methods. Results and Discussion Results reported cover over one year from March 2002 until May 2003. Annual deposition rates of sulfate were calculated ranging between 4 and 13 kg S/ha year, almost as high as in polluted central Europe. Nitrogen deposition via ammonia (1.5–4.4 kg N/ha year) and nitrate (0.5–0.8 kg N/ha year) was found to be lower but still much higher than to be expected in such pristine natural forest environment. By means of back trajectory analyses it can be shown that most of the enhanced sulfur and nitrogen deposition is most likely due to forest fires far upwind of the Ecuadorian sampling site, showing a seasonal variation, with sources predominantly found in the East/NorthEast during January–March (Colombia, Venezuela, Northern Brazil) and East/SouthEast during July–September (Peru, Brazil). Conclusion Our results show that biomass burning in the Amazon basin is the predominant source of sulfur and nitrogen compounds that fertilize the mountaineous rain forest in south Ecuador. Recommendation and Outlook The mountaineous rain forest in south Ecuador has developed on poor and acid soils, with low nutrient availability. The additional fertilization resulting from anthropogenic biomass burning constitutes a significant disturbance of this ecosystem, its functioning and biodiversity. Thus it is planned to employ isotope analyses for quantifying the pathways of nitrate and sulfate deposition in these natural forests.     

A scale-up field experiment for the monitoring of a burning process using chemical, audio, and video sensors

Fires are becoming more violent and frequent resulting in major economic losses and long-lasting effects on communities and ecosystems; thus, efficient fire monitoring is becoming a necessity. A novel triple multi-sensor approach was developed for monitoring and studying the burning of dry forest fuel in an open field scheduled experiment; chemical, optical, and acoustical sensors were combined to record the fire spread. The results of this integrated field campaign for real-time monitoring of the fire event are presented and discussed. Chemical analysis, despite its limitations, corresponded to the burning process with a minor time delay. Nevertheless, the evolution profile of CO₂, CO, NO, and O₂ were detected and monitored. The chemical monitoring of smoke components enabled the observing of the different fire phases (flaming, smoldering) based on the emissions identified in each phase. The analysis of fire acoustical signals presented accurate and timely response to the fire event. In the same content, the use of a thermographic camera, for monitoring the biomass burning, was also considerable (both profiles of the intensities of average gray and red component greater than 230) and presented similar promising potentials to audio results. Further work is needed towards integrating sensors signals for automation purposes leading to potential applications in real situations.     

Late Holocene wetland transgression and 500 years of vegetation and fire variability in the semi-arid Amboseli landscape,southern Kenya

The semi-arid Amboseli landscape, southern Kenya, is characterised by intermittent groundwater-fed wetlands that form sedimentary geoarchives recording past ecosystem changes. We present a 5000-year environmental history of a radiocarbon dated sediment core from Esambu Swamp adjacent to Amboseli National Park. Although radiocarbon dates suggest an unconformity or sedimentary gap that spans between 3800 and 500 cal year BP, the record provides a unique insight into the long-term ecosystem history and wetland processes, particularly the past 500 years. Climatic shifts, fire activity and recent anthropogenic activity drive changes in ecosystem composition. Prior to 3800 cal year BP the pollen data suggest semi-arid savanna ecosystem persisted near the wetland. The wetland transgressed at some time between 3800 and 500 cal year BP and it is difficult to constrain this timing further, and palustrine peaty sediments have accumulated since 400 cal year BP. Increased abundance of Afromontane forest taxa from adjacent highlands of Kilimanjaro and the Chyulu Hills and local arboreal taxa reflect changes in regional moisture budgets. Particularly transformative changes occurred in the last five centuries, associated with increased local biomass burning coeval with the arrival of Maa-speaking pastoralists and intensification of the ivory trade. Cereal crops occurred consistently from around 300 cal year BP, indicative of further anthropogenic activity. The study provides unique insight in Amboseli ecosystem history and the link between ecosystem drivers of change. Such long-term perspectives are crucial for future climate change and associated livelihood impacts, so that suitable responses to ensure sustainable management practices can be developed in an important conservation landscape.     

Global Emissions of Nitrogen and Sulfur Oxides from 1860 to 1980

Statistical models have been developed that relate the rate of emissions of a pollutant to the rate of fuel consumption. These relations may be used to estimate emissions in other regions, or at other times, if fuel consumption data are available. This approach has been used to estimate global emissions of nitrogen and sulfur oxides in fossil fuel combustion at ten year intervals from 1860 to 1980. Emissions from each of the populated continents, i.e., North America, South America, Asia, Europe, Africa and Oceania from 1930 to 1980 are also presented. When averaged globally over the 1860 to 1980 period, sulfur emissions increased at the rate of 2.9 percent per year and the nitrogen emissions at the rate of 3.4 percent per year. The ratio of global sulfur emissions to nitrogen emissions has declined steadily; it was nearly 5 in the 19th century and became 3 by 1980. After the second world war, the most rapid increases in emissions have been registered in Asia, South America, and Africa.     

Sensitivity of molecular marker-based CMB models to biomass burning source profiles

To assess the contribution of sources to fine particulate organic carbon (OC) at four sites in North Carolina, USA, a molecular marker chemical mass balance model (MM-CMB) was used to quantify seasonal contributions for 2 years. The biomass burning contribution at these sites was found to be 30–50% of the annual OC concentration. In order to provide a better understanding of the uncertainty in MM-CMB model results, a biomass burning profile sensitivity test was performed on the 18 seasonal composites. The results using reconstructed emission profiles based on published profiles compared well, while model results using a single source test profile resulted in biomass burning contributions that were more variable. The biomass burning contribution calculated using an average regional profile of fireplace emissions from five southeastern tree species also compared well with an average profile of open burning of pine-dominated forest from Georgia. The standard deviation of the results using different source profiles was a little over 30% of the annual average biomass contributions. Because the biomass burning contribution accounted for 30–50% of the OC at these sites, the choice of profile also impacted the motor vehicle source attribution due to the common emission of elemental carbon and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. The total mobile organic carbon contribution was less effected by the biomass burning profile than the relative contributions from gasoline and diesel engines.     

The carbon-sequestration potential of municipal wastewater treatment

The lack of proper wastewater treatment results in production of CO(2) and CH(4) without the opportunity for carbon sequestration and energy recovery, with deleterious effects for global warming. Without extending wastewater treatment to all urban areas worldwide, CO(2) and CH(4) emissions associated with wastewater discharges could reach the equivalent of 1.91 x 10(5) t(CO2)d(-1) in 2025, with even more dramatic impact in the short-term. The carbon sequestration benefits of wastewater treatment have enormous potential, which adds an energy conservation incentive to upgrading existing facilities to complete wastewater treatment. The potential greenhouse gases discharges which can be converted to a net equivalent CO(2) credit can be as large as 1.91 x 10(5) t(CO2)d(-1) in 2025 by 2025. Biomass sequestration and biogas conversion energy recovery are the two main strategies for carbon sequestration and emission offset, respectively. The greatest potential for improvement is outside Europe and North America, which have largely completed treatment plant construction. Europe and North America can partially offset their CO(2) emissions and receive benefits through the carbon emission trading system, as established by the Kyoto protocol, by extending existing technologies or subsidizing wastewater treatment plant construction in urban areas lacking treatment. This strategy can help mitigate global warming, in addition to providing a sustainable solution for extending the health, environmental, and humanitarian benefits of proper sanitation.     

Simulation of the tropospheric distribution of carbon monoxide during the 1984 MAPS experiment

A global, three-dimensional tropospheric chemistry model was used to perform simulations of the tropospheric distribution of carbon monoxide (CO) coinciding with NASA's Measurement of Air Pollution from Satellites (MAPS) experiment which took place during 5–13 October 1984. Archived meteorological data for September and October, 1984, were obtained from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting and used to drive the offline chemical transport model simulations. Base-case CO emissions were generated by applying emission factors to compiled inventories for related or co-emitted trace species. Simulation results from September and October have been compared with a recent re-release of the 1984 MAPS data and with in situ correlative data taken during the MAPS mission. Because of unrealistically large spatial variability in N₂O mixing ratios measured concurrently by MAPS, model results were also compared with an adjusted CO data set generated by assuming that errors in N₂O measured mixing ratios were correlated with errors in the MAPS CO data. These comparisons, in conjunction with simulations probing model sensitivities, led to the conclusion that biomass burning CO emissions from central and southern Africa may have been larger during September and October, 1984, than our initial best estimate based on the CO₂ emissions data of Hao et al. (1990. Fire in the Tropical Biota; Ecosystem Processes and Global Challenges. Springer, Berlin, pp. 440–462; 1994. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 8, 495–503). This result is in disagreement with recent estimates of biomass burning emissions from Africa (Scholes et al., 1996, Journal of Geophysical Research 101, 23677–23682) which are smaller than previously thought for emissions from this region. Although unknown model deficiencies cannot be conclusively ruled out, model sensitivity studies indicate that increased CO emissions from central and southern Africa offer the best explanation for reducing observed differences between model results and MAPS data for this time period. Our results, in combination with a disparity in recent CO emission estimates from this region (Scholes et al., 1996; Hao et al., 1996, Journal of Geophysical Research 101, 23577–23584), and in light of recent indications of highly variable biomass burning activities from the tropical western Pacific (Folkins et al., 1997, Journal of Geophysical Research 102, 13291–13299), seem to suggest that biomass burning emissions exhibit significant year-to-year variability. This large variability of emissions sources makes the accurate simulation of specific time periods very difficult and suggests that biomass burning trace species inventories may have to be developed specifically for each simulated time period, employing satellite-derived information on fire coverage and flame intensity.     

Terrestrial water cycle and the impact of climate change

The terrestrial water cycle and the impact of climate change are critical for agricultural and natural ecosystems. In this paper, we assess both by running a macro-scale water balance model under a baseline condition and 2 General Circulation Model (GCM)-based climate change scenarios. The results show that in 2021-2030, water demand will increase worldwide due to climate change. Water shortage is expected to worsen in western Asia, the Arabian Peninsula, northern and southern Africa, northeastern Australia, southwestern North America, and central South America. A significant increase in surface runoff is expected in southern Asia and a significant decrease is expected in northern South America. These changes will have implications for regional environment and socioeconomics.     

Monitoring agricultural burning in the Mississippi River Valley region from the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS)

The 2003 active fire observations from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), on board NASA's Terra and Aqua satellites, were analyzed to assess burning activity in the cropland areas of the Mississippi River Valley region. Agricultural burning was found to be an important contributor to fire activity in this region, accounting for approximately one-third of all burning. Agricultural fire activity showed two seasonal peaks: the first, smaller peak, occurring in June during the spring harvesting of wheat; and the second, bigger peak, in October during the fall harvesting of rice and soy. The seasonal signal in agricultural burning was predominantly evident in the early afternoon MODIS Aqua fire detections. A strong diurnal agricultural fire signal was prevalent during the fall harvesting months, as suggested by the substantially higher number (approximately 3.5 times) of fires detected by MODIS Aqua in the early afternoon, compared with those detected by MODIS Terra in the morning. No diurnal variations in agricultural fire activity were apparent during the springtime wheat-harvesting season. The seasonal and diurnal patterns in agricultural fire activity detected by MODIS are supported by known crop management practices in this region. MODIS data provide an important means to characterize and monitor agricultural fire dynamics and management practices.     

Past changes in Arctic terrestrial ecosystems, climate and UV radiation

At the last glacial maximum, vast ice sheets covered many continental areas. The beds of some shallow seas were exposed thereby connecting previously separated landmasses. Although some areas were ice-free and supported a flora and fauna, mean annual temperatures were 10-13 degrees C colder than during the Holocene. Within a few millennia of the glacial maximum, deglaciation started, characterized by a series of climatic fluctuations between about 18,000 and 11,400 years ago. Following the general thermal maximum in the Holocene, there has been a modest overall cooling trend, superimposed upon which have been a series of millennial and centennial fluctuations in climate such as the "Little Ice Age spanning approximately the late 13th to early 19th centuries. Throughout the climatic fluctuations of the last 150,000 years, Arctic ecosystems and biota have been close to their minimum extent within the most recent 10,000 years. They suffered loss of diversity as a result of extinctions during the most recent large-magnitude rapid global warming at the end of the last glacial stage. Consequently, Arctic ecosystems and biota such as large vertebrates are already under pressure and are particularly vulnerable to current and projected future global warming. Evidence from the past indicates that the treeline will very probably advance, perhaps rapidly, into tundra areas, as it did during the early Holocene, reducing the extent of tundra and increasing the risk of species extinction. Species will very probably extend their ranges northwards, displacing Arctic species as in the past. However, unlike the early Holocene, when lower relative sea level allowed a belt of tundra to persist around at least some parts of the Arctic basin when treelines advanced to the present coast, sea level is very likely to rise in future, further restricting the area of tundra and other treeless Arctic ecosystems. The negative response of current Arctic ecosystems to global climatic conditions that are apparently without precedent during the Pleistocene is likely to be considerable, particularly as their exposure to co-occurring environmental changes (such as enhanced levels of UV-B, deposition of nitrogen compounds from the atmosphere, heavy metal and acidic pollution, radioactive contamination, increased habitat fragmentation) is also without precedent.     

Long-term increases in surface water dissolved organic carbon: observations, possible causes and environmental impacts

Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations in 22 UK upland waters have increased by an average of 91% during the last 15 years. Increases have also occurred elsewhere in the UK, northern Europe and North America. A range of potential drivers of these trends are considered, including temperature, rainfall, acid deposition, land-use, nitrogen and CO2 enrichment. From examination of recent environmental changes, spatial patterns in observed trends, and analysis of time series, it is suggested that DOC may be increasing in response to a combination of declining acid deposition and rising temperatures; however it is difficult to isolate mechanisms based on monitoring data alone. Long-term DOC increases may have wide-ranging impacts on freshwater biota, drinking water quality, coastal marine ecosystems and upland carbon balances. Full understanding of the significance of these increases requires further knowledge of the extent of natural long-term variability, and of the natural "reference" state of these systems.     

Trends,temporal and spatial characteristics,and uncertainties in biomass burning emissions in the Pearl River Delta,China

Multi-year inventories of biomass burning emissions were established in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region for the period 2003–2007 based on the collected activity data and emission factors. The results indicated that emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO₂), nitrogen oxide (NO_x), ammonia (NH₃), methane (CH₄), organic carbon (OC), non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOC), carbon monoxide (CO), and fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) presented clear declining trends. Domestic biofuel burning was the major contributor, accounting for more than 60% of the total emissions. The preliminary temporal profiles were established with MODIS fire count information, showing that higher emissions were observed in winter (from November to March) than other seasons. The emissions were spatially allocated into grid cells with a resolution of 3 km × 3  km, using GIS-based land use data as spatial surrogates. Large amount of emissions were observed mostly in the less developed areas in the PRD region. The uncertainties in biomass burning emission estimates were quantified using Monte Carlo simulation; the results showed that there were higher uncertainties in organic carbon (OC) and elemental carbon (EC) emission estimates, ranging from ?71% to 133% and ?70% to 128%, and relatively lower uncertainties in SO₂, NO_x and CO emission estimates. The key uncertainty sources of the developed inventory included emission factors and parameters used for estimating biomass burning amounts.     

秸秆成型燃料锅炉污染物排放规律试验研究

根据锅炉烟尘测试方法(GB 5468-91)及锅炉大气污染物排放标准(GB 13271-2001),在不同风门的工况下,分别对设计的双层炉排秸秆成型燃料锅炉污染物排放规律进行试验.试验表明,在较好工况下,双层炉排锅炉排烟中CO等中间产物及烟尘含量低于单层炉排锅炉,其排烟中CO、NOx、SO2和烟尘浓度等指标远远低于燃煤锅炉,符合国家关于工业锅炉大气污染物排放标准要求,有较好环保效益.     

Anomalous high ozone concentrations recorded at a high mountain station in Italy in summer 2003

In order to evaluate the possible effects of heatwave phenomena on background O₃ concentrations, the average summer O₃ concentrations at the high mountain station of Mt. Cimone (MTC—2165 m a.s.l.) have been analyzed. In particular, at this baseline station unusually high O₃ concentrations were recorded during August 2003, when an intense heatwave (the “August heatwave”) affected Europe. During this heatwave, the highest O₃ concentrations were recorded at MTC in connection with air masses coming from continental Europe and the Po basin boundary layer as shown by three-dimensional air mass back-trajectory and mixing height analyzes. However, high O₃ concentrations were also recorded in air masses coming from the middle troposphere (above 3000 m a.s.l.), thus suggesting the presence of O₃-rich atmospheric layers over Europe. This could be due to the large extension of the mixing layer which favoured the transport of high concentrations of O₃ and its precursors to altitudes that would usually be in the free troposphere. Other than from traffic and industrial activities, a contribution to the high O₃ concentrations recorded at MTC during the August heatwave could derive from fires in the North of Italy, as suggested by a well-documented episode and supported by in situ CO₂ measurements used as non-conventional tracer for fire emissions.     

Production of boundary layer ozone from tropical American Savannah biomass burning emissions

Boundary layer ozone and carbon monoxide were measured at a savannah site in the Orinoco river basin, during the dry and wet seasons. CO and O₃ concentrations recorded around noontime show a good linear correlation, suggesting that the higher ozone levels observed during the dry season are photochemically produced during the oxidation of reactive hydrocarbons in the presence of NO_x both emitted by biomass burning. The rate of photochemical ozone production in the boundary layer ozone by biomass burning calculated from the production ratio ΔO₃/ΔCO (0.17±0.01 v : v) and the amount of CO produced by fires (0.26–1.3 mole m⁻² dry season⁻¹), ranges from 0.6 to 2.6 ppbv h⁻¹ for 8 h of daylight. This O₃ production rate is in fairly good agreement with the value derived from RO₂ radical measurements made in the Venezuelan savannah during the dry season. The net boundary layer production of O₃ from all tropical America savannah fires is estimated to range between 0.28 and 0.36 Tmol O₃ per year, which is about 3 times higher than the O₃ produced from pollution sources in the eastern United States during the summer. An extrapolation to all of the world's savannah would indicate a net boundary layer ozone production of about 1.2 Tmol yr⁻¹. This is discussed in the context of the overall global budget of tropospheric ozone.     

Oxidation of ketone groups in transported biomass burning aerosol from the 2008 Northern California Lightning Series fires

Submicron particles were collected from June to September 2008 in La Jolla, California to investigate the composition and sources of atmospheric aerosol in an anthropogenically-influenced coastal site. Factor analysis of aerosol mass spectrometry (AMS) and Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy measurements revealed that the two largest sources of submicron organic mass (OM) at the sampling site were (1) fossil fuel combustion associated with ship and diesel truck emissions near the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach and (2) aged smoke from large wildfires burning in central and northern California. During non-fire periods, fossil fuel combustion contributed up to 95% of FTIR OM, correlated to sulfur, and consisted mostly of alkane (86%) and carboxylic acid groups (9%). During fire periods, biomass burning contributed up to 74% of FTIR OM, consisted mostly of alkane (48%), ketone (25%), and carboxylic acid groups (17%), and correlated to AMS-derived factors resembling brush fire smoke, wood smoldering and flaming particles, and biogenic secondary organic aerosol. The two AMS-derived biomass burning factors were identified as oxygenated and hydrocarbon biomass burning aerosol on the basis of spectral similarities to smoldering and flaming smoke particles, respectively. In addition, the ratio of oxygenated to hydrocarbon biomass burning OM shows a clear diurnal trend with an afternoon peak, consistent with photochemical oxidation. Back trajectory analysis indicates that 2–4-day old forest fire emissions include substantial ketone groups, which have both lower O/C and lower m/z 44/OM fraction than carboxylic acid groups. Air masses with more than 4-day old emissions have higher carboxylic acid/ketone group ratios, showing that atmospheric processing of these ketone-containing organic aerosol particles results in increased m/z 44 and O/C. These observations may provide functionally-specific evidence for the type of chemical processing that is responsible for biomass burning particle composition in the atmosphere.     

Simulating uncertainty in climate-pest models with fuzzy numbers

Inputs in climate-pest models are commonly expressed as point estimates ('crisp' numbers), which implies perfect knowledge of the system in study. In reality, however, all model inputs harbor some level of uncertainty. This is particularly true for climate change impact assessments where the inputs (i.e., climate projections) are highly uncertain. In this study, uncertainties in climate projections were expressed as 'fuzzy' numbers; these are uncertain numbers for which one knows that there is a range of possible values and that some values are 'more possible' than others. A generic pest risk model incorporating the combined effects of temperature, soil moisture, and cold stress was implemented in a fuzzy spreadsheet environment and run with three climate scenarios: (1) present climate (control run); (2) crisp climate change; and (3) fuzzy climate change. Under the crisp climate change scenario, winter and summer temperatures and precipitation were altered using best estimates (averaged predictions from the 1995 assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC]). Under the fuzzy scenario, climate changes were expressed as triangular fuzzy numbers, utilizing the extremes (lowest and highest predictions from the IPCC report) in addition to the best estimates. Under each scenario, environmental favorability was calculated for six locations in two geographical regions (Central North America and Southern Europe) with two hypothetical pest species having temperate or mediterranean climate requirements. Simulations with the crisp climate change scenario suggested only minor changes in overall environmental favorability compared with the control run. When simulations were conducted with the fuzzy climate change scenario, however, important changes in environmental favorability emerged, particularly in Southern Europe. In that region, the possibility of considerably increased winter precipitation led to increased values of environmental favorability. However, the simulations also showed that this result harbored a very broad range of possible outcomes. The results support the notion that uncertainty in climate change projections must be reduced before reliable impact assessments can be achieved.