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1.
In this paper the data of a forest health inventory are analyzed. Since 1983 the degree of defoliation, together with various explanatory variables (covariates) concerning stand, site, soil and weather, are recorded by the second of the two authors, in the forest district of Rothenbuch (Spessart, Bavaria). The focus is on the space and time dependencies of the data. The mutual relationship of space-time functions and the set of covariates is evaluated. For this we use generalized linear models (GLMs) for ordinal response variables and semiparametric estimation approaches. By using goodness-of-fit measures it turns out that (i) the contribution of space-time functions is quantitatively comparable with that of the set of covariates, (ii) the contribution of space-time functions is small compared with the contribution of a set of variables describing the last-year and neighboring response values. By applying appropriate residual methods a detailed analysis of the individual sites in the area can be carried out. This analysis reveals where the predictive power of the covariates fail to explain the observed defoliation.  相似文献   

2.
The paper presents new applications of marked point processes in forestry. The tools are pair correlation functions and mark connection functions. Studies of the structures of even-aged pine forests in Siberia show a tendency of development from clustering in young stands towards random distribution in elder stands for the trunk positions. The tree tops as the movable parts of trees are still more regular in old forests. Furthermore, in Siberian fir forests interesting tendencies of attraction between members of several tree classes are detected. Finally, studies of the distribution of damaged trees in some central European forests show that there the damaged trees appear as singletons; dominating trees are preferentially damaged.  相似文献   

3.
Model diagnostics for normal and non-normal state space models are based on recursive residuals which are defined from the one-step ahead predictive distribution. Routine calculation of these residuals is discussed in detail. Various diagnostic tools are suggested to check, for example, for wrong observation distributions and for autocorrelation. The paper also discusses such topics as model diagnostics for discrete time series and model discrimination via Bayes factors. The case studies cover environmental applications such as analysing a time series of the number of daily rainfall occurrences and a time series of daily sulfur dioxide emissions.  相似文献   

4.
铊(T1)是剧毒的重金属元素,会对生态环境和人体健康造成威胁.目前各国铊的环境安全标准存在差异.本文利用泥鳅红细胞微核技术,研究泥鳅Misgurnus anguillicaudatus红细胞微核率和核异常率与铊污染时间的关系,为该技术在铊毒理研究中的可行性和铊环境安全标准提供依据.结果表明:水体铊质量浓度为0.5μg·L~(-1)下,随处理时间的延长,泥鳅红细胞微核率、核异常率显著增加,并与时间呈显著的正相关,其中微核率、核异常率分别在处理24 h和48 h时达到最大值;随后两指标逐步下降,与时间呈显著的负相关.在此铊质量浓度和处理时间内,核异常率与微核率均显著高于空白无铊对照处理,表明水体铊质量浓度0.5 μg·L~(-1)对泥鳅血红细胞具有遗传毒性.  相似文献   

5.
Systematic reviews (SRs) and systematic mapping aim to maximize transparency and comprehensiveness while minimizing subjectivity and bias. These are time-consuming and complex tasks, so SRs are considered resource intensive, but published estimates of systematic-review resource requirements are largely anecdotal. We analyzed all Collaboration for Environmental Evidence (CEE) SRs (n = 66) and maps (n = 20) published from 2012 to 2017 to estimate the average number of articles retained at each review stage. We also surveyed 33 experienced systematic reviewers to collate information on the rate at which those stages could be completed. In combination, these data showed that the average CEE SR takes an estimated 164 d (full-time equivalent) (SD 23), and the average CEE systematic map (SM) (excluding critical appraisal) takes 211 d (SD 53). While screening titles and abstracts is widely considered time-consuming, metadata extraction and critical appraisal took as long or longer to complete, especially for SMs. Given information about the planned methods and evidence base, we created a software tool that predicts time requirements of a SR or map with evidence-based defaults as a starting point. Our results shed light on the most time-consuming stages of the SR and mapping processes, will inform review planning, and can direct innovation to streamline processes. Future predictions of effort required to complete SRs and maps could be improved if authors provide more details on methods and results.  相似文献   

6.
3S与在线监测技术在环境模型研究中的应用   总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3  
崔侠  孙群  何江华 《生态环境》2003,12(2):224-227
结合环境信息系统的研究现状和研究实例,首先分析了3S和在线监测技术与环境模型研究结合的必要性,并分析指出了3S、在线监测技术在环境模型研究中潜在的应用范围,然后剖析了3S技术与环境模型研究结合的三阶水平,最后介绍了3S在环境规划模型研究中的理想结合框架。  相似文献   

7.
广东省土壤硒空间分布及潜在环境风险分析   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
利用广东省260个土壤剖面数据,开展区域尺度下的土壤总硒(Se)质量分数的空间分布研究。结果表明,研究区内土壤硒含量变异性较强,符合对数正态分布特征,其几何质量分数为0.23 mg·kg-1,高于全国平均水平。表层土壤硒基线质量分数范围为0.13到0.41 mg·kg-1,处于硒缺乏与中等含量水平之间。土壤硒的空间分布格局与区域成土母质密切相关,表现为:高硒质量分数的土壤主要位于石灰岩和砂页岩区域,而低硒质量分数的土壤主要位于紫色页岩和花岗岩地区。土壤硒缺乏可能是影响研究区人体健康的重要问题。此外,研究区由土壤退化和土壤侵蚀引发的流入周边水体的土壤硒每年可高达23 t。  相似文献   

8.
Hollow nanomaterials have attracted significant attention because of their high chemical and thermal stability, high specific surface area, high porosity, low density, and good biocompatibility. These state-of-the-art nanomaterials have been shown to efficiently adsorb heavy metals, and volatile hazardous substances, photodegrade persistent organic pollutants, and other compounds, and inactivate bacteria. Such properties have enabled the use of these materials for environmental remediation, such as in water/wastewater treatment, soil remediation, air purification, and substance monitoring, etc. Hollow nanomaterials showed higher photocatalytic activity than those without hollow structure owing to their high active surface area, reduced diffusion resistance, and improved accessibility. And, the Doping method could improve the photocatalytic performance of hollow nanomaterials further under visible light. Moreover, the synthetic mechanisms and methods of these materials are important because their size and morphology help to determine their precise properties. This article reviews the environmental applications and potential risks of these materials, in addition to their syntheses. Finally, an outlook into the development of these materials is provided.  相似文献   

9.
利用格兰杰因果关系检验(Granger causality tests)方法分析了江苏省处在不同发展阶段的三大区域的工业经济增长和环境污染之间双向作用关系。研究结果表明:经济发展水平越高,工业经济增长对环境污染的影响越明显,并且持续时间长,在某种程度上环境污染已经成为受工业经济增长影响的内生变量;江苏省三大区域环境污染都不是工业经济增长的原因,环境污染的加重并不能带来工业经济的增长,因此,在实践中靠牺牲环境来换取经济增长的理念是不可取的,"先污染后治理"的发展思路是不可行的。  相似文献   

10.
持久性有机污染物(POPs)由于具有致癌性、致畸性和致突变效应的"三致性",近年来已经越来越受到人们的关注.本文综合分析了有机氯农药(OCPs)、多氯联苯(PCBs)、二英类(PCDD/Fs)、多环芳烃(PAHs)及多溴联苯醚(PBDEs)等几种典型土壤持久性有机污染物的空间分布特征.同时,对土壤POPs的挥发作用、吸附/解吸、迁移、生物降解、化学降解等环境行为进行了深入分析,并指出了这些环境行为的影响因素,包括POPs的物质属性、土壤理化性质及周围环境等共性影响因素及其它因素.此外,针对国内外研究现状中存在的问题,提出了相关建议,指出控制土壤POPs污染的根本手段在于管理措施的完善.  相似文献   

11.
7Be、210Pb等放射性核素已被广泛应用于区域及全球物质传输途径示踪的研究中。2009年8月到2010年10月在上海市普陀区华东师范大学校园设采样点采集了51场大气降水样品,分析了单次降水事件中7Be和210Pb的含量以及湿沉降通量的变化特征,并对比不同季节的变化特征。结果表明:1)单次降水事件中7Be的浓度变化范围为0.21~5.99 Bq/L,210Pb浓度的变化范围为0.01~0.90 Bq/L。7Be和210Pb的月均浓度具有明显的季节变化特征:7Be的浓度高值出现在冬季,夏季浓度最低;210Pb浓度高值出现在秋、冬季节,夏季浓度最低;7Be/210Pb高值主要出现在春、秋季节。2)7Be、210Pb沉降通量与降水量有一定相关性,但单次降水事件7Be和210Pb浓度与降水量并没有很好的相关性。7Be和210Pb沉降通量存在着较好的相关性,指示7Be、210Pb沉降路径有着较好的一致性。  相似文献   

12.
城市大气环境监测优化布点模糊优选模型及应用实例   总被引:10,自引:1,他引:10  
文章根据城市大气环境监测优化布点的模糊性,提出了一种模糊环境条件下的模糊聚类与模糊识别理论模型,并且在山东省肥城等市成功应用。结合统计方法确定出的大气监测优化点位,不但具有代表性和整体性,而且具有较高的分辨率,能快速准确地、最大范围地反映出该区域的环境空气质量状况、大气污染扩散规律、污染源分布特点、污染气象及地理位置特征,为环境管理和政府决策提供可靠依据。  相似文献   

13.
王薇  张之秋 《生态环境》2014,(11):1783-1791
以夏热冬冷地区合肥市为研究区域,从建筑布局、空间形态、建筑密度、交通路网、植物绿化等方面综合考虑城市住区的不同环境特征,选择12个样点进行实地观测,于2013年8至2014年1月进行了空气离子浓度、风速、温度、相对湿度等指标的实地测定,并对数据进行筛选分析得出结果,空气负离子浓度随季节变化较为明显,夏季最高,平均浓度约为358/cm3,秋季次之,平均浓度约为338/cm3,冬季最低,平均浓度约为322/cm3。总体看来,上午9:00─10:00和下午14:30─15:30区间空气负离子浓度最高,上午10:30和下午16:00─16:30区间空气负离子浓度相对较低。②自由式布局和具有较明显开敞空间的测试样点空气负离子浓度较高。夏季样点9空气负离子浓度最高,平均浓度为815/cm3;秋季样点12空气负离子浓度最高,平均浓度约为483/cm3;冬季样点9空气负离子浓度最高,平均浓度约为407/cm3。最后运用单极系数和安培空气质量评价指数对住区空气质量进行评价,得出住区环境的空气清洁度以允许和清洁为主,等级多分布在D级和B级。根据这些结果和分析得出以下结论:在不同的季节,住区室外环境的空气负离子浓度变化较为明显,夏季最高,冬季最低。②影响城市住区空气负离子浓度最主要气象因子是风速、温度和相对湿度,其中风速和温度与空气负离子浓度呈现出正相关,而相对湿度则总体趋势不明确。③采取层次丰富的植物结构有利于提高环境的空气负离子浓度。④空气负离子浓度与空气清洁度有着密切关系,不同的环境特征下空气清洁度存在差异。⑤以空气负离子浓度为参考标准指导并优化住区建筑布局,不仅有利于提高住区人居环境质量评价工作的科学管理水平,同时对于提高居民的健康水平和营造健康舒适的居住环境具有重要的?  相似文献   

14.
河川径流量的变化对水资源的开发利用和国民经济的发展具有很大的影响。采用K0lmogorov—Smimov检验方法对无定河流域两个主要水文站赵石窑站和白家川站逐月径流量序列进行正态性检验,在此基础上运用DFA分析方法,估算两站时间序列的研示度指数,预测该流域径流量的未来变化趋势及其持续性,并采用随机重排法对估算结果进行了稳定性检验。分析结果显示:赵石窑和自家川两站径流时间序列的a标度指数分别为0.52和0.56,均大于0.5,径流时间序列表现为较强的长程依赖性,表明无定河流域在过去近50a内径流量的总体上呈下降趋势,在未来一段时间内,还将持续一段时间。对原时间序列随机重排后,两站月径流序列的6α标度指数都变小,分别为0.48和0.49,接近于0.5,进一步证明原序列确实存在着标度不变性。研究结果对流域的水资源规划、管理与合理利用有帮助。  相似文献   

15.
Phenotype-dependent arrival time and its consequences in a migratory bird   总被引:13,自引:0,他引:13  
Arrival times for migratory animals can be viewed as the result of an optimization process of costs and benefits of early arrival, and when the cost and benefit functions of early arrival depend on phenotypic quality, this will result in phenotype-dependent optimal arrival times. This hypothesis was tested for males of the migratory and sexually size-dimorphic barn swallow Hirundo rustica. The major cost of early arrival is poor environmental conditions which resulted in mortality of short-tailed early-arriving males in one year. The major benefits of early arrival are higher mating success, enhanced reproductive success, improved recruitment rates for offspring, and enhanced quality of the mate acquired. Annual variation in male arrival date is related to weather conditions at the breeding grounds, but also to some extent to weather conditions in the African winter quarters. Individual variation in arrival time can be explained by phenotype-dependent cost and benefit functions of early arrival. Male barn swallows with long tail ornaments arrived earlier than short-tailed males. The costs of early arrival should be particularly high under poor environmental conditions and lead to a stronger negative relationship between arrival date and phenotypic quality in years with poor environmental conditions. This prediction was confirmed by a stronger negative relationship between male tail length and date of arrival in years when arrival was relatively late because of poor weather. A female preference for early-arriving males may result in acquisition of good genes for optimal migratory behaviour, if migratory direction and extent have a genetic basis as shown in a number of different bird species.  相似文献   

16.
Increasing difficulties associated with balancing consumptive demands for water and achieving ecological benefits in aquatic ecosystems provide opportunities for new ecosystem-scale ecological response models to assist managers. Using an Australian estuary as a case study, we developed a novel approach to create a data-derived state-and-transition model. The model identifies suites of co-occurring birds, fish, benthic invertebrates and aquatic macrophytes (as ‘states’) and the changing physico-chemical conditions that are associated with each (‘transitions’). The approach first used cluster analysis to identify sets of co-occurring biota. Differences in the physico-chemical data associated with each state were identified using classification trees, with the biotic distinctness of the resultant statistical model tested using analysis of similarities. The predictive capacity of the model was tested using new cases. Two models were created using different time-steps (annual and quarterly) and then combined to capture both longer-term trends and more-recent declines in ecological condition. We identified eight ecosystem states that were differentiated by a mix of water-quantity and water-quality variables. Each ecosystem state represented a distinct biotic assemblage under well-defined physico-chemical conditions. Two ‘basins of attraction’ were identified, with four tidally-influenced states, and another four independent of tidal influence. Within each basin, states described a continuum of relative health, manifest through declining taxonomic diversity and abundances. The main threshold determining relative health was whether freshwater flows had occurred in the region during the previous 339 days. Canonical analyses of principal coordinates tested the predictive capacity of the model and demonstrated that the variance in the environmental data set was well captured (87%) with 52% of the variance in the biological data set also captured. The latter increased to >80% when long- and short-term biological data were analysed separately, indicating that the model described the available data for the Coorong well. This approach thus created a data-derived, multivariate model, where neither states nor transitions were determined a priori. The approach did not over-fit the data, was robust to patchy or missing data, the choice of initial clustering technique and random errors in the biological data set, and was well-received by local natural resource managers. However, the model did not capture causal relationships and requires additional testing, particularly during future episodes of ecological recovery. The approach shows significant promise for simplifying management definitions of ecological condition and, via scenario analyses, can be used to assist in manager decision-making of large, complex aquatic ecosystems in the future.  相似文献   

17.
用两种土壤研究土壤与酸的反应时间对土壤酸度及土壤溶液中铝离子形态分布的影响。结果表明,土壤溶液pH随反应时间增加而增加,安徽红壤pH的增幅大于江西红壤。在pH3.0的HNO3溶液中,土壤溶液中的总铝及Al3 均随反应时间增加而减少,而在pH3.5的HNO3溶液中,土壤溶液中总铝及Al-F络合物先随反应时间的增加而减小.然后又有所增加。  相似文献   

18.
黄河三角洲潮沟湿地植被空间分布对土壤环境的响应   总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5  
赵欣胜  崔保山  孙涛  贺强 《生态环境》2010,19(8):1855-1861
潮沟在黄河三角洲广泛存在,且分布有多种独特的湿地植被类型。通过设置有代表性的28个样地,获取了植被种类、多度和土壤环境因子数据;并运用双指示物种(TWINSPAN),对黄河三角洲潮沟分布区植被进行了群落类型划分,得出研究区共有7种类型植物群落;同时利用典范对应分析(CCA)阐明了这些植被群落空间分布与土壤环境因子之间的关系,其分析结果显示构成黄河三角洲土壤盐分的主要是Cl-和Na+,距离海洋的远近和土壤含水量共同影响土壤含盐量,盐地碱蓬和中华柽柳分布主要取决于土壤含盐量、Na+含量及距离海洋距离,而各种植被类型的分布与土壤全磷(TP)、全氮(TN)、有机质、Ca2+及Mg2+含量存在一定的关系。  相似文献   

19.
• Acute toxicity assessment was conducted in Luoma lake watershed, East China. • Impacts of environmental factors on the toxicity testing was fully evaluated. • Dissolve oxygen had a weak positive correlation with luminescence inhibition rate. Protecting the quality of lake watersheds by preventing and reducing their contamination is an effective approach to ensure the sustainability of the drinking water supply. In this study, acute toxicity assessment was conducted on the basis of acute bioluminescence inhibition assay using the marine bacterium Vibrio fischeri as the test organism and Luoma Lake drinking water source in East China as the research target. The suitable ranges of environmental factors, including pH value, organic matter, turbidity, hardness, and dissolved oxygen of water samples were evaluated for the toxicity testing of bioluminescent bacteria. The physicochemical characteristics of water samples at the selected 43 sites of Luoma Lake watershed were measured. Results showed that the variations in pH value (7.31–8.41), hardness (5–20 °d) and dissolved oxygen (4.44–11.03 mg/L) of Luoma Lake and its main inflow and outflow rivers had negligible impacts on the acute toxicity testing of V. fischeri. The luminescence inhibition rates ranged from -11.21% to 10.80% at the 43 sites. Pearson’s correlation analysis in the experiment revealed that temperature, pH value, hardness, and turbidity had no correlation with luminescence inhibition rate, whereas dissolved oxygen showed a weak statistically positive correlation with a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.455 (p<0.05).  相似文献   

20.
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