Fitting probability models to population dynamics data

Methods for modeling population dynamics in probability using the generalized point process approach are developed. The life history of these populations is such that seasonal reproduction occurs during a short time. Several models are developed and analyzed. Data about two species: colonial spiders (Stegodyphus dumicola) and a migratory bird (wood thrush, Hylocichla mustelina) are used to estimate model parameters with appropriate log maximum likelihood functions. For the spiders, the model is fitted to provide evolutionary feasible colony size based on maximum likelihood estimates of fecundity and survival data. For the migratory bird species, a maximum likelihood estimates are derived for the fecundity and survival rates of young and adult birds and immigration rate. The presented approach allows computation of quantities of interest such as probability of extinction and average time to extinction.     

Model of coral population response to accelerated bleaching and mass mortality in a changing climate

We model coral community response to bleaching and mass mortality events which are predicted to increase in frequency with climate change. The model was parameterized for the Arabian/Persian Gulf, but is generally applicable. We assume three species groups (Acropora, faviids, and Porites) in two life-stages each where the juveniles are in competition but the adults can enter a size-refuge in which they cannot be competitively displaced. An aggressive group (Acropora species) dominates at equilibrium, which is not reached due to mass mortality events that primarily disadvantage this group (compensatory mortality, >90% versus 25% in faviids and Porites) roughly every 15 years. Population parameters (N individuals, carrying capacity) were calculated from satellite imagery and in situ transects, vital rates (fecundity, mortality, and survival) were derived from the model, field observations, and literature. It is shown that populations and unaltered community structure can persist despite repeated 90% mortality, given sufficiently high fecundity of the remaining population or import from connected populations. The frequency of disturbance determines the dominant group—in low frequency Acropora, in high frequency Porites. This is congruent with field observations. The model of an isolated population was more sensitive to parameter changes than that of connected populations. Highest sensitivity was to mortality rate and recruitment rate. Community composition was sensitive to spacing of disturbances and level of catastrophic mortality. Decreased mortality led to Acropora dominance, increased mortality led to Acropora extinction. In nature, closely spaced disturbances have severely disadvantaged Acropora populations over the last decade. Unless a longer (>10 years) disturbance-free interval can be maintained, a permanent shift away from Acropora dominance will be observed. A mortality rate of 99% in Acropora, as observed in 1996, is not sustainable if repetitive and neither is a disturbance frequency <15 years—each leading to population collapse. This shows that the severity and/or the spacing of the 1996–1998–2002 disturbances were unusual in frequency and duration.     

Generation time and the maximum growth rate for populations with age-specific fecundities and unknown juvenile survival

In age-classified population models where all parameters are known, the generation time and growth rate are calculated in a straightforward manner. For many populations, some parameters, such as juvenile survival, are difficult to estimate accurately. In a simplified population model where fecundity and survival are constant from the onset of breeding, it is known that generation time may be calculated given only adult survival, age at first reproduction, and the population growth rate. However, the assumption of constant fecundity from the onset of breeding does not hold for many populations. An extended population model allows calculation of generation time with the additional knowledge of the ratio of age-specific fecundities compared to a maximum fecundity rate. When these relative fecundities are unknown, an ad hoc adjustment to the simplified model performs well.When the study population is in an ideal environment, the optimal generation time and maximum growth rate are linked, and both may be approximated knowing only adult survival, age at first reproduction, and the relative fecundities. The maximum growth rate has important conservation implications, and calculating it correctly is therefore important. Improper use of the simplified population model to calculate the maximum growth rate, combined with a simple decision rule, leads to an average overharvest of 36%, and >60% for three of six bird species studied, compared to the full population model. By comparison, using the approximation from the extended or adjusted models results in average overharvests of only 8% (extended model) and 5% (adjusted model), and <50% for all six species (either model).     

Photosynthate partitioning by phytoplankton in a New Zealand coastal upwelling system

A stimulation model of copepod population dynamics (development rate, fecundity, and mortality) was used to compute the predatory consumption necessary to control population growth in three dominant copepod species (Pseudocalanus sp., Paracalanus parvus, and Calanus finmarchicus) on Georges Bank, given observed seasonal cycles of copepod and predator populations. The model also calculated secondary production of each species. Copepod development rate and fecundity were functions of temperature while mortality was a function of predator abundance and consumption rate. Daily inputs of temperature and predator abundance (chaetognaths, ctenophores, and Centropages spp.) were derived from equations fit to field data. Model runs were made with various consumption rates until the model output matched observed copepod seasonal cycles. Computed consumption rates were low compared with published values from field and laboratory studies indicating that, even at conservative estimates of consumption, predators are able to control these copepod populations. Combined annual secondary production by the small copepod species, Pseudocalanus sp. and P. parvus, was nearly twice that of the larger C. finmarchicus with P. parvus having the highest total annual production.     

A population viability analysis for the Island Fox on Santa Catalina Island,California

The island fox (Urocyon littoralis) on Santa Catalina Island is among the most imperiled species on the Channel Islands due to a recent outbreak of canine distemper virus (CDV). The western subpopulation, which was not exposed to CDV, is a crucial element in the recovery of foxes by providing a source of animals for translocation and captive breeding. Using the program VORTEX, we developed a population viability analysis for the Santa Catalina Island fox to (1) address the likelihood of population persistence, (2) estimate the current susceptibility of the population to catastrophic events, and (3) evaluate the efficacy of current restoration strategies of releasing captive bred foxes and transplanting wild animals. Overall, we found the population to be susceptible to catastrophic events; a 50% increase in mortality every 20 years was sufficient to elevate the extinction risk above 5%. Current management activities entail the transplanting of 12 juvenile foxes annually, which may reduce the viability of the western subpopulation. A minimum population size of at least 150 foxes should be maintained in each subpopulation to reduce the risk of extinction due to demographic stochasticity. Releases of translocated and captive bred animals affect the speed of recovery on the eastern half of Catalina Island, but not the probability of extinction, which is near zero under current conditions. We conducted a sensitivity analysis for demographic parameters by incrementally varying survival, fecundity and density-dependence parameters, while holding all other parameters constant. Sensitivity analyses identified mortality and mean litter size as the most sensitive parameters, while the implementation of density-dependence and environmental variation of model parameters did not seem to affect population performance. We conclude that the population of island foxes on Santa Catalina is currently at a critically low population level, but recovery of the species appears possible.     

A simulation model of population dynamics of the codling moth, Cydia pomonella

A simulation model has been developed that predicts numbers and phenology of a population of codling moth, Cydia pomonella (L.), in an apple orchard. The model is a general insect population model based on the interative-cohort technique. It operates at two time scales: a fine time scale (1 h) for temperature-dependent physiological processes, and a coarse time scale (1 day) for population processes. The population is divided into a specifiable number of stages, and each stage is described by four process functions, which may be of any convenient mathematical form, and may differ among stages. Each stage is divided into cohorts of individuals born or emerged on the same day, and individuals within a cohort are considered probabilistically identical. The model simulates the processes of development, transition among stages, and mortality by using probability distributions representing these processes, and incorporates the effects of pesticides on mortality of the insect. Model output was evaluated by comparison with records of pheromone trap catches of codling moths in commercial apple orchards in North Carolina. The model predicts timing of the first spring flight well, depending on the initial age distribution used. Time between peaks of numbers of adults in the model is about 15 days longer than the observed period between flight peaks in orchards. Sensitivity analysis indicates that this discrepancy may be related to differences between measured ambient temperature and tree canopy temperature. The sensitivities of numbers of insects produced by the model, and timing of peaks in numbers present were determined for each of the parameters in the model. The parameters with greatest effect on the model output were those which control the locations of developmental rate functions and survival functions on the temperature scale. In the model, pesticides had a much larger effect on numbers of adults present than records of moths caught in pheromone traps indicate actually occurred, suggesting that moths caught in traps in commercial orchards where effective pesticides are applied may be largely immigrants.     

COSMOS,a spatially explicit model to simulate the epidemiology of Cosmopolites sordidus in banana fields

A stochastic individual-based model called COSMOS was developed to simulate the epidemiology of banana weevil Cosmopolites sordidus, a major pest of banana fields. The model is based on simple rules of local movement of adults, egg laying of females, development and mortality, and infestation of larvae inside the banana plants. The biological parameters were estimated from the literature, and the model was validated at the small-plot scale. Simulated and observed distributions of attacks were similar except for five plots out of 18, using a Kolmogorov–Smirnov test. These exceptions may be explained by variation in predation of eggs and measurement error. An exhaustive sensitivity analysis using the Morris method showed that predation rate of eggs, demographic parameters of adults and mortality rate of larvae were the most influential parameters. COSMOS was therefore used to test different spatial arrangements of banana plants on the epidemiology of C. sordidus. Planting bananas in groups increased the time required to colonise plots but also the percentage of banana plants with severe attacks. Spatial heterogeneity of banana stages had no effect on time required to colonise plots but increased the mean level of attacks. Our model helps explain key factors of population dynamics and the epidemiology of this tropical pest.     

Potential Misuse of Avian Density as a Conservation Metric

Abstract: Effective conservation metrics are needed to evaluate the success of management in a rapidly changing world. Reproductive rates and densities of breeding birds (as a surrogate for reproductive rate) have been used to indicate the quality of avian breeding habitat, but the underlying assumptions of these metrics rarely have been examined. When birds are attracted to breeding areas in part by the presence of conspecifics and when breeding in groups influences predation rates, the effectiveness of density and reproductive rate as indicators of habitat quality is reduced. It is beneficial to clearly distinguish between individual‐ and population‐level processes when evaluating habitat quality. We use the term reproductive rate to refer to both levels and further distinguish among levels by using the terms per capita fecundity (number of female offspring per female per year, individual level) and population growth rate (the product of density and per capita fecundity, population level). We predicted how density and reproductive rate interact over time under density‐independent and density‐dependent scenarios, assuming the ideal free distribution model of how birds settle in breeding habitats. We predicted population density of small populations would be correlated positively with both per capita fecundity and population growth rate due to the Allee effect. For populations in the density‐dependent growth phase, we predicted no relation between density and per capita fecundity (because individuals in all patches will equilibrate to the same success rate) and a positive relation between density and population growth rate. Several ecological theories collectively suggest that positive correlations between density and per capita fecundity would be difficult to detect. We constructed a decision tree to guide interpretation of positive, neutral, nonlinear, and negative relations between density and reproductive rates at individual and population levels.     

A general bioeconomic simulation model for annual-crop marine fisheries

A generalized bioeconomic simulation model of annual-crop marine fisheries is described and its use in marine fisheries management is demonstrated. The biological submodel represents the recruitment of new organisms into the fishery, the movement of organisms from one fishing area to another and from one depth to another, the growth of organisms and the mortality of organisms resulting both from natural causes and from fishing. The economic submodel represents the fishing effort exerted on each resource species, the monetary costs of fishing, the value of the harvest and the rent (or excess profits) to the fishery.Basic dynamics of the model results from changes in the number of organisms in the fishery over time, which can be summarized as a set of difference equations of the general form ΔN/Δt = R + I ? E ? M ? F where ΔN/Δt is the net change in number of organisms in the fishery over time, R is recruitment, I is immigration, E is emigration, M is natural mortality and F is fishing mortality. R is a driving variable, whereas I, E, M and F are functions of the state of the system at any given point in time. The model can be run in a deterministic or stochastic mode. Values for parameters affecting rates of recruitment, movement, growth, natural mortality and fishing mortality can be selected from uniform, triangular or normal distributions.Use of the model within a fisheries-management framework is demonstrated by evaluating several management alternatives for the pink shrimp (Penaeus duorarum) fishery on the Tortugas grounds in the Gulf of Mexico. Steps involved in use of the model, including parameterization, validation, sensitivity analysis and stochastic simulations of management policies, are explained.     

Relating chronic toxicity responses to population-level effects: A comparison of population-level parameters for three salmon species as a function of low-level toxicity

Standard laboratory toxicity tests assess the physiological responses of individual organisms to exposure to toxic substances under controlled conditions. Time and space restrictions often prevent the assessment of population-level responses to a toxic substance. Contaminants can affect various biological functions (e.g. growth, fecundity or behavior), which may alter different demographic traits, leading to population-level impacts. In this study, immune suppression, reproductive dysfunction and somatic growth impairment were examined using life history matrix models for coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch), sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) and chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha). Our intent was to gauge the relative magnitude of response to toxic effects among species and between life history stages, not provide a specific estimate of population growth rate or abundance. Effects due to immune suppression were modeled as reductions in age-specific survival. Toxic impacts on reproductive function were modeled as a 10% reduction in reproductive contribution for all reproductively mature age groups. Model runs that examined the effect of somatic growth reduction on population parameters incorporated both survival and reproductive impacts. All impacts were modeled as 10% reductions in the affected population demographic parameters. First-year survival and reproductive impacts produced similar population growth rates (λ), but resulted in different sensitivity and stable age distributions. Modeled somatic growth reduction produced additive effects on survival and reproduction. Toxic stressors producing similar changes in λ did not necessarily produce similar changes in the age distributions. Sensitivity and elasticity analyses demonstrated that changes to the first-year survival rate produced the greatest per-unit effect on λ for each species. Alteration in abundance of mature females also strongly influenced λ. Differences observed between species showed that the number of reproductive ages and time to reproductive maturity were important components for population-level responses. These results emphasize the importance of linking toxicity responses at low concentrations to the demographic traits they affect, and help to highlight the toxicity tests that are more suitable for assessing impacts on the focal species. Additionally, life history modeling is a useful tool for developing testable hypotheses regarding impacts on specific populations as well as for conducting comparisons between populations.     

Population growth in snow geese: a modeling approach integrating demographic and survey information

There are few analytic tools available to formally integrate information coming from population surveys and demographic studies. The Kalman filter is a procedure that facilitates such integration. Based on a state-space model, we can obtain a likelihood function for the survey data using a Kalman filter, which we may then combine with a likelihood for the demographic data. In this paper, we used this combined approach to analyze the population dynamics of a hunted species, the Greater Snow Goose (Chen caerulescens atlantica), and to examine the extent to which it can improve previous demographic population models. The state equation of the state-space model was a matrix population model with fecundity and regression parameters relating adult survival and harvest rate estimated in a previous capture-recapture study. The observation equation combined the output from this model with estimates from an annual spring photographic survey of the population. The maximum likelihood estimates of the regression parameters from the combined analysis differed little from the values of the original capture-recapture analysis, though their precision improved. The model output was found to be insensitive to a wide range of coefficient of variation (CV) in fecundity parameters. We found a close match between the surveyed and smoothed population size estimates generated by the Kalman filter over an 18-year period, and the estimated CV of the survey (0.078-0.150) was quite compatible with its assumed value (approximately 0.10). When we used the updated parameter values to predict future population size, the model underestimated the surveyed population size by 18% over a three-year period. However, this could be explained by a concurrent change in the survey method. We conclude that the Kalman filter is a promising approach to forecast population change because it incorporates survey information in a formal way compared with ad hoc approaches that either neglect this information or require some parameter or model tuning.     

Inverse modeling for effective dispersal: Do we need tree size to estimate fecundity?

The estimation of the dispersal kernel for the seedling and sapling stages of the recruitment process was made possible through the application of inverse modeling to dispersal data. This method uses the spatial coordinates of adult trees and the counts of seedlings (or saplings) in small quadrats to estimate the dispersal kernel. The unknown number of recruits produced by an adult tree (the fecundity) is estimated - simultaneously with the dispersal kernel - via an allometric linear model relating the unknown quantity with a (easily) measured characteristic of the adult tree (usually the basal area). However, the allometric relation between tree size and reproductive success in the sapling (or seedling) stage may not be strong enough when numerous, well-documented, post-dispersal processes (such as safe-site limitation for recruitment) cause large post-dispersal seedling mortality, which is usually unrelated to the size of the tree that dispersed them. In this paper we hypothesize that when tree size and reproductive success in the seedling/sapling stage are not well correlated then the use of allometry in inverse modeling is counter-productive and may lead to poor model fits. For these special cases we suggest using a new model for effective dispersal that we term the unrestricted fecundity (UF) model that, contrary to allometric models, makes no assumptions on the fecundities; instead they are allowed to vary freely from one tree to another and even to be zero for trees that are reproductively inactive. Based on this model, we examine the hypothesis that when tree size and reproductive success are weakly correlated and the fecundities are estimated independently of tree size the goodness-of-fit and the ecological meaning of dispersal models (in the seedling or sapling stage) may be enhanced. Parameters of the UF model are estimated through the EM algorithm and their standard errors are approximated via the observed information matrix. We fit the UF model to a dataset from an expanding European beech population of central Spain as well as to a set of simulated dispersal data were the correlation between reproductive success and tree size was moderate. In comparisons with a simple allometric model, the UF model fitted the data better and the parameter estimates were less biased. We suggest using this new approach for modeling dispersal in the seedling and sapling stages when tree size (or other adult-specific covariates) is not deemed to be in strong relation to the reproductive success of adults. Models that use covariates for modeling the fecundity of adults should be preferred when reproductive success and tree size guard a strong relationship.     

A simulation model for the management of vicuña populations

The population dynamics of the vicuña was modelled based on field data from the Central Galeras Sector, Perú. Rains were simulated in order to obtain net primary productivity and grass availability which act upon density-dependent fecundity and mortality. The model produces a population growth curve that tends to stabilize at densities around 100 vicuñas per km². Harvest and shearing processes were simulated as part of the vicuña population management model. Harvest was based upon a fixed threshold density D_e below which no harvest occurs; for densities above D_e harvesting is applied at a rate proportional to the difference between D_e and the current population density (fixed escapement or ‘bang-bang’ harvest rule). Management optimization was analyzed by determining the optimal escapement density D_e, which maximized either net profits or the number of animals harvested. Analyzing the results as cumulative totals over 20 years of simulation, an optimum harvest production was obtained for a D_e of about 40 vicuñas per km², and maximum profit was obtained for a D_e around 70 vicuñas per km². Analyzing the results of 20 years of simulation as annual averages with an original population density of 40 vicuñas per km², the harvest production and profits were maximized for a D_e of 40 and 60 vicuñas per km², respectively.The model was validated using data from the Reserva Nacional San Guillermo, Argentina, where vicuña and guanaco populations coexist (although their interaction was not modelled). The sensitivity analysis was performed with three different techniques: (a) stepwise multiple linear regression, (b) visual graphic analysis based on a polar coordinates system, and (c) direct evaluation of the effect on management decisions. The curve shape parameters of the fecundity and mortality functions proved to be the most important ones in determining the outcome of the model.     

Population level effects of reduced fecundity in the fish species perch (Perca fluviatilis) and the implications for environmental monitoring

A 40% reduction in relative gonad size in perch (Perca fluviatilis) has been observed over that past two decades at the Swedish national reference site Kvädöfjärden. This biomarker response could be interpreted as a reduction in fecundity and increased risk of local extinction. However, abundance estimates from the same area has not provided any evidence of a reduction in population size. In the present study, a matrix population model was developed to investigate if a reduction in fecundity can be expected to have long term effects on population viability for perch and to evaluate the probability to detect such effects through abundance estimates. The model was parameterized from 17 years of population data from Kvädöfjärden as well as from other studies on perch. The model included density dependence and environmental stochasticity. The results indicated that a reduction in fecundity that is in level with the observed reduction in relative gonad size in Kvädöfjärden will cause a substantial risk for local extinction. The risk that the population will fall below 20% of the carrying capacity within 50 years is 44% when the fecundity is reduced by 40%. However, due to variability in abundance measurements it will take some time before a reduction in gonad size leads to statistically significant effects on the population. If the fecundity is reduced by 40% successively over a 10-year period, the probability to detect this through abundance estimates within 10 years is less than 50%. The results of the present study clearly show that relevant biomarkers have an important role in environmental monitoring as early warning signals, preferably in combination with measurements at higher levels of biological organization.     

Field evidence of the impact of two acanthocephalan parasites on the mortality of three species of New Zealand shore crabs (Brachyura)

The effects of the acanthocephalan parasites Profilicollis antarcticus and P. novaezelandensis on the fecundity and mortality of three species of shore crab (Macrophthalmus hirtipes, Hemigrapsus edwardsi and H. crenulatus) are examined. The number of eggs produced by female crabs was strongly correlated (all P<0.05) with carapace width; parasite load was not a significant determinant of female fecundity. Mortality was inferred from reduction in the mean number of parasites per crab in the largest crab size-classes, indicating that heavily infected individuals are removed from the population. Mortality attributable to the parasites was observed for all three species of crabs, although the effect of parasites varied in both time and space; significant curvilinear regressions between parasite load and crab size-classes were not found in all samples. Crab mortality appears to be influenced by more than the pathological influences exerted by the parasites. Parasite-induced behavioural alterations may cause crab hosts to be more susceptible to predation by definitive hosts. We support this suggestion with three lines of evidence: the lack of parasite effects on fecundity, the weakening of the parasite effect on mortality during the time of year when birds are absent, and previous indications of parasite-mediated alterations in crab burrowing behaviour.     

安徽琅琊山青檀种群数量动态

以种群生命表和生存分析理论为基础,采用胸径大小分级法和分段匀滑技术,编制琅琊山青檀（Pteroceltistatarinowii）种群静态生命表,绘制了死亡率曲线、消失率曲线、存活曲线和生存函数曲线并分析种群数量特征,结合种群动态量化方法和时间序列预测模型分析种群数量动态变化。结果表明：（1）琅琊山青檀种群属稳定增长型。种群径级结构大体呈倒“J”型分布,中、幼龄阶段个体数量较为丰富,老龄阶段个体数量相对较少,种群在发育过程中存在一定波动性,但种群数量变化动态指数Kp,i。和Kp,i（考虑外部干扰时）均大于0。（2）青檀种群死亡率曲线和消失率曲线变化趋势基本一致,均出现2个高峰,一个出现在第Ⅱ龄级,另一个出现在第XI（或Ⅻ）龄级;存活曲线经统计检验趋于Deevey-Ⅱ型。（3）青檀种群的生存率曲线单调下降,累计死亡率曲线单调上升,生存率下降趋势表现为前期高于后期,累计死亡率则相反;生存函数曲线显示,青檀种群具有前期薄弱、中期稳定和后期衰退的特点。（4）在未来2、4、6、8和10a内,青檀种群幼龄级个体数量相对丰富,种群呈稳定增长趋势。     

Agent-based simulation of effects of stress on forest tent caterpillar (Malacosoma disstria Hübner) population dynamics

The forest tent caterpillar (Malacosoma disstria Hübner) (FTC) has an outbreak cycle of approximately 10 years; however, smaller spatial scale analyses show some regions have longer or more frequent periods of high defoliation. This may be a result of local forest fragmentation, pollution or other sources of stress that may affect FTC directly or indirectly through stress on their hosts or parasitoids. Population dynamics of FTC were examined to investigate how stress may alter the severity and frequency of defoliation. We developed a spatially explicit agent-based model to simulate the host-parasitoid dynamics of FTC. Theoretical and empirically derived parameters were established using past literature and over 50 years of population data of FTC from Ontario, Canada. We find that increasing FTC fecundity, FTC dispersal or parasitoid mortality resulted in more severe outbreaks while a decrease in parasitoid fecundity or searching efficiency resulted in an overall elevation of defoliation. Parasitoid efficiency was the most effective parameter for altering the FTC defoliation. Since plant stress has been shown to alter several of these parameters in nature due to changes in food quality, habitat suitability, and chemical cue interference, our results suggest that forests affected by stressors such as climate change and pollution will have more severe and frequent defoliation from these insects than surrounding unaffected forests. As stressors such as drought and pollution emissions are predicted to increase in frequency or intensity over the next few decades, understanding how they may affect the outbreak cycle of a forest defoliator can aid in planning strategies to reduce the detrimental effects of this insect.     

Population Viability Analysis of the Florida Manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris), 1976–1991

Recent development of age-determination techniques for Florida manatees (Trichechus manatus latirostris) has permitted derivation of age-specific data on reproduction and survival of a sample of 1212 carcasses obtained throughout Florida from 1976–1991. Population viability analysis using these data projects a slightly negative growth rate (−0.003) and an unacceptably low probability of persistence (0.44) over 1000 years. The main factors affecting population projections were adult survival and fecundity. A 10% increase in adult mortality would drive the population to extinction over a 1000-year time scale, whereas a 10% decrease in adult mortality would allow slow population growth. A 10% decrease in reproduction would also result in extinction. We conclude that management must focus on retaining and improving the conditions under which manatee demography operates. The major identified agent of mortality is boat-manatee collisions, and rapidly increasing numbers of humans and registered boats portend an increase in manatee mortality. Zoning of manatee-occupied waters for reductions in boating activity and speed is essential to safeguard the manatee population. If boating regulations being implemented by the state of Florida in each of 13 key coastal counties are completed, enforced, and effective, manatees and human recreation could coexist indefinitely. If regulation is unsuccessful, the Florida manatee population is likely to decline slowly toward extinction.     

Using an individual-based model to quantify scale transition in demographic rate functions: Deaths in a coral reef fish

Scientifically informed population management requires quantitatively accurate demographic rate functions that apply at the spatial scale at which populations are actually managed, but practical constraints confine most field measurements of such functions to small study plots. This paper employs an individual-based population growth model to extrapolate the death rate function in a well-studied coral reef fish, the bridled goby Coryphopterus glaucofraenum, from the scale of coral reef “cells” at which it was measured to the larger scale of an entire coral reef. Density dependence in the whole-reef function actually proves stronger than in the local function because high goby density occasionally arises in local patches with few refuges from predators, producing very high mortality there. This IBM-based approach extends the reach of scale transition theory by examining considerably more realistic models than standard analytical methods can presently handle.     

Variation in male sailfin molly, preference for female size: does sympatry with sexual parasites, drive preference for smaller conspecifics?

Male sailfin mollies (Poecilia latipinna) are sexually parasitized by gynogenetic Amazon mollies (Poecilia formosa). In areas of sympatry, Amazon mollies are frequently larger than female sailfin mollies. In sympatry, selection may favor males that prefer smaller conspecific mates (avoid mismating with Amazon mollies), or selection may favor males that prefer larger conspecific mates (higher fecundity). To explore this potential species and mate-quality recognition conflict, we examined male preference variation across populations. Males from one sympatric population showed stabilizing preference functions, whereas in another sympatric population, males showed directional preference functions. Variation across sympatric populations may be related to the length of time of co-evolution with Amazon mollies. In the allopatric populations, we found flat preference functions. Variation in male preferences could have important ramifications for the maintenance of Amazon mollies, as well as for the evolution of female size.