The impact of the change in vegetation structure on the ecological functions of salt marshes: the example of the Yangtze estuary

Salt marshes worldwide are faced with threats from rising sea levels and coastal development. We measured changes in salt marsh vegetation structure using remote sensing and its consequences for carbon sequestration, wave attenuation, and sediment trapping ability using remotely sensed imaging, field measurement data, and the published literature data pertaining to the Yangtze Estuary, a rapidly urbanizing area in Eastern China. From 1980 to 2010, the total area of vegetated salt marsh decreased by 17 %, but the vegetation structure changed more dramatically, with the ratio of Phragmites/Spartina/Scirpus changing from 24:0:76, to 77:0:23, 44:13:43, and 33:39:28 in 1980, 1990, 2000, and 2010, respectively. Carbon sequestration increased slightly from 1980 to 2010, with the dramatic shifts in plant species composition. The total length of seawall inadequately protected by salt marsh vegetation increased from 44 km in 1980 to 300 km in 2010. Sediment accretion increased (from 8 to 14 million m³/year) due to the spread of Spartina, which to some extent compensated the loss of total vegetated area in the salt marsh. Changes in the delivery of functions were not linearly related to the change in the area of vegetated salt marsh, but more from the combined effect of changing vegetation structure, sediment input, and land reclamation. Under threat of sea-level rise, protection and maintenance of vegetation structure outside the seawall are of great importance for the safe economic development inside the seawall.     

基于遥感及数值模拟的崇明东滩冲淤与植被关系探讨

首先提取多时相卫星影像的水边线信息，借助水动力模型模拟水边线对应时刻的水位，根据水边线水位及实测潮滩高程断面推算潮滩的高程及冲淤变化信息，同时利用高分辨率遥感影像（Quick Bird）对潮滩植被进行模糊分类及变化监测，并通过植被覆盖度指数及现场观测数据反演植被的发育程度信息。依据上述计算结果探讨了崇明东滩冲淤变化与植被及潮间带高程的关系。结果表明在崇明东滩中低潮滩附近存在冲淤峰值，由峰值位置向海向陆侧递减。年平均沉积速率与潮滩高程(<3.4 m)的相关性〖WTBX〗R〖WTBZ〗2=0.8 106。中低潮滩出现最大沉积速率主要是受植被的捕沙作用及沉积滞后的影响，高潮滩沉积速率较小则归因于高潮滩淹水机率相对较小导致泥沙在高潮滩落淤量降低，相反低潮滩则由于高程较低加之缺少植被保护沉积速率较小。结果同时表明由于南北部潮滩动力条件及植被状况的差异导致崇明东滩从北部滩面、中部滩面到南部滩面冲淤峰值出现的高程各不相同。总之，遥感技术结合水动力模型能够较方便地得到滩涂相关环境因子信息，克服了常规测量的困难，为分析海岸带冲淤变化动态提供了新的技术手段。〖     

Long-term simulation of effects of energy crop cultivation on nitrogen leaching and surface water quality in Saxony/Germany

The production of energy crops in Germany is a growing agronomic sector and is expected to occupy a substantial share of farmland in the near future. At the same time, there are concerns that energy crops might cause increased nitrogen pollution of soil water, surface water and groundwater. Therefore, the Federal State of Saxony, Germany, funded a study on potential effects of an intensified cultivation of energy crops. In frame of this study, we used the Web GIS-based model STOFFBILANZ to simulate N leaching from the rooting zone and N loads of surface water for a reference scenario and an energy crop scenario. For the reference scenario, we used data representing the crop cultivation for the year 2005 at municipality level. We found that the total loads for N leaching from the rooting zone of cropland are highest for the loess region (8,067 t year^?1), followed by mountainous region (6,797 t year^?1) and lowland (5,443 t year^?1). However, highest N fluxes in the leachate from rooting zones have been simulated for lowland (40.6 kg ha^?1 year^?1) and mountainous region (37.1 kg ha^?1 year^?1), while nitrate concentrations of leachate were highest for the lowland (101.8 mg l^?1). In terms of diffuse N input into surface water, the mountainous region is the most important source area (total N load 6,380 t year^?1, flux 34.6 kg ha^?1 year^?1). Retention by in-stream processes accounts for 15 % (3,784 t year^?1) of the total N load leaving the study area (25,136 t year^?1). In the 2020 energy crop scenario, shares of rape and silage maize (id., ensiled corn) were limited for each municipality to a maximum of 25 and 33 %, respectively. The conversion of grasslands to crop farming was not allowed. Under these conditions, we found slight to substantial reductions of nitrogen loads for leachate from the rooting zone and for surface waters. The simulated reduction depends strongly on local conditions. Only small reductions (ca. 4–8 %) were found for the lowlands and mountainous regions of Saxony, while reductions for the loess region were substantial (ca. 22 %). A major outcome of our study is that the cultivation of energy crops might reduce N loss if certain preconditions are assumed, for example, without conversion of grasslands to crop farming. However, effects might vary widely depending on local conditions.     

How changes in diet and trade patterns have shaped the N cycle at the national scale: Spain (1961–2009)

During the last five decades (1961–2009), Spain has experienced a considerable expansion in the nutrient cycle of its agricultural sector and, in particular, a threefold increase in anthropogenic reactive nitrogen inputs, from 536 Gg N year^?1 in 1961–1965 to 1673 Gg N year^?1 in 2005–2009. Import of feed (soybean, cereals, and cakes) from America and Europe to supply a growing livestock population constitutes the largest share of this increase, along with intensification of synthetic fertilizer use. While in the early 1960s, Spain was nearly self-sufficient in terms of food and feed supply, the net import of agricultural products presently equals domestic crop production, when expressed in terms of nitrogen content (ca. 650 Gg N year^?1). The most important driver of this shift appears to be the rapid change in domestic consumption patterns, which evolved from a typical Mediterranean diet to an animal-protein-rich diet similar to the North European and American diets. Besides livestock production mostly for national consumption, the Spanish agricultural system has specialized in vegetal products with low N content such as olive oil, wine, vegetables, and citrus fruit, which are for the most part exported. The nitrogen load exported outside the Spanish borders by rivers is very low (6.5 % of the total net N input). As a result of the high import and low export of reactive nitrogen, the Spanish mainland is suffering from considerable pollution by local emissions of reactive nitrogen forms to air and water.     

Contrasting impacts of climate change across seasons: effects on flatfish cohorts

The Senegal sole, Solea senegalensis, is a species of flatfish that has several distinct cohorts of 0-group juveniles which use estuarine nurseries in summer and winter. The early cohort is more abundant and grows faster than the late cohort that stays in the nurseries during winter; however, climate warming may have an impact on the dynamics of this species’ juveniles. This study aimed to compare mortality, metabolic response and growth of S. senegalensis juveniles at different temperatures, reflecting present-day temperature (winter—12 °C; summer—24 °C) and future temperature (plus 3 °C) conditions, in estuarine nurseries in the southern European population. Mortality was low at 12 °C, being only 10 %, increasing to 30 % at 15 °C, 40 % at 24 °C and at 27 °C it hit 70 %. Metabolic rate increased steadily with increasing temperatures, yet it increased steeply from 24 to 27 °C. Thermal sensitivity was high for the temperature interval between 24 and 27 °C. Growth was very slow at 12 °C, at a rate of 0.03 mm day^?1, increasing to 0.22 mm day^?1 at 15 °C, and to 0.60 mm day^?1, at 24 °C. However, at 27 °C growth rapidly declined to 0.12 mm day^?1. Warming will be beneficial for the late cohort, resulting in a major increase in growth. However, the early cohort will not benefit from warming, due to high mortality and arrested growth, which clearly indicates that this species is under severe thermal stress at 27 °C. Thus, here we show, for the first time, that climate change may induce contrasting seasonal impacts on fish bio-ecology and physiology, namely in species with several cohorts over the course of the year. Phenotypic and/or genotypic plasticity may limit the impacts of climate change.     

Addressing food supply chain and consumption inefficiencies: potential for climate change mitigation

Globally, more than 30 % of all food that is produced is ultimately lost and/or wasted through inefficiencies in the food supply chain. In the developed world this wastage is centred on the last stage in the supply chain; the end-consumer throwing away food that is purchased but not eaten. In contrast, in the developing world the bulk of lost food occurs in the early stages of the supply chain (production, harvesting and distribution). Excess food consumption is a similarly inefficient use of global agricultural production; with almost 1 billion people now classed as obese, 842 million people are suffering from chronic hunger. Given the magnitude of greenhouse gas emissions from the agricultural sector, strategies that reduce food loss and wastage, or address excess caloric consumption, have great potential as effective tools in global climate change mitigation. Here, we examine the challenges of robust quantification of food wastage and consumption inefficiencies, and their associated greenhouse gas emissions, along the supply chain. We find that the quality and quantity of data are highly variable within and between geographical regions, with the greatest range tending to be associated with developing nations. Estimation of production-phase GHG emissions for food wastage and excess consumption is found to be similarly challenging on a global scale, with use of IPCC default (Tier 1) emission factors for food production being required in many regions. Where robust food waste data and production-phase emission factors do exist—such as for the UK—we find that avoiding consumer-phase food waste can deliver significant up-stream reductions in GHG emissions from the agricultural sector. Eliminating consumer milk waste in the UK alone could mitigate up to 200 Gg CO₂e year^?1; scaled up globally, we estimate mitigation potential of over 25,000 Gg CO₂e year^?1.     

Greenhouse gas emissions from a semi-arid tropical reservoir in northeastern Brazil

We estimated carbon dioxide (CO₂) and methane (CH₄) emissions by diffusion, ebullition, and degassing in turbines from a semi-arid hydropower reservoir in northeastern Brazil. Sampling sites were allocated within the littoral and deeper waters of one embayment, the main-stream, and at turbines. Annual carbon emissions were estimated at 2.3?×?10⁵?±?7.45?×?10⁴ t C year^?1, or in CO₂-equivalents (CO₂-eq) at 1.33?×?10⁶?±?4.5?×?10⁵ t CO₂-eq year^?1. Diffusion across the water surface was the main pathway accounting for 96% of total carbon emissions. Ebullition was limited to littoral areas. A slight accumulation of CO₂, but not of CH₄, in bottom waters close to the turbines inlet led to degassing emissions about 8?×?10³ t C year^?1. Emissions in littoral areas were higher than in main-stream and contribute to 40% of the total carbon. Carbon (C) emissions per electricity generated, at 60% of installed capacity, is 0.05 t C-CO₂-eq MWh^?1. The ratio increases to 0.09 t C-CO₂ MWh^?1, equating 80% of the emissions from natural gas and 40% of diesel or coal power plants. Retention time and benthic metabolism were identified as main drivers for carbon emissions in littoral areas, while water column mixing and rapid water flow are important factors preventing CH₄ accumulation and loss by degassing. Our results indicate that Itaparica Reservoir, located in the semi-arid region of Northeastern Brazil, acts as a source of GHGs. Management measurements are needed to prevent emissions to raise in the future.     

Vegetation dynamics and climate change on the Loess Plateau,China: 1982–2011

Monitoring the dynamics of vegetation growth and its response to climate change is important to understand the mechanisms underlying ecosystem behaviors. This study investigated the relationship between vegetation growth and climate change during the growing seasons on the Loess Plateau in China by analyzing the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) derived from the Land Long Term Data Record dataset from 1982 to 2011. Results showed that growing-season NDVI had increased at an annual rate of 0.0028, particularly in the semi-arid and semi-humid regions. By contrast, the NDVI first increased from 1982 to 1994 (0.0013 year^?1, P < 0.05) and then decreased from 1994 to 2011 (0.0016 year^?1, P < 0.05) in the arid region. Temperature had a positive effect on NDVI in most periods within and across seasons in the semi-humid region but had no significant effect in the arid region. Precipitation had a positive effect on NDVI in the arid region in summer and in the semi-arid region in autumn. Summer precipitation was important for autumn vegetation growth in the arid region, whereas summer temperature increased autumn vegetation growth in the semi-arid and semi-humid regions. Further analyses supported the lag-time effects of climate change on vegetation growth on the Loess Plateau. Precipitation shifts had 15- to 18-month time lag effects on vegetation growth in the three climate regions. Vegetation NDVI had a 17-month lag response to temperature in the semi-arid region. Human activities should not be neglected in analyzing the relationship between vegetation growth and climate change on the Loess Plateau.     

Mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions from an abandoned Baltic peat extraction area by growing reed canary grass: life-cycle assessment

Abandoned peat extraction areas are continuous emitters of GHGs; hence, abandonment of peat extraction areas should immediately be followed by conversion to an appropriate after-use. Our primary aim was to clarify the atmospheric impact of reed canary grass (RCG, Phalaris arundinacea L.) cultivation on an abandoned peat extraction area and to compare it to other after-treatment alternatives. We performed a life-cycle assessment for five different after-use options for a drained organic soil withdrawn from peat extraction: (I) bare peat soil (no management), (II) non-fertilised Phalaris cultivation, (III) fertilised Phalaris cultivation, (IV) afforestation, and (V) rewetting. Our results showed that on average the non-fertilised and fertilised Phalaris alternatives had a cooling effect on the atmosphere (?10,837 and ?477 kg CO₂-eq ha^?1 year^?1, respectively), whereas afforestation, rewetting, and no-management alternatives contributed to global warming (9,511, 8,195, and 2,529 kg CO₂-eq ha^?1 year^?1, respectively). The main components influencing the global warming potential of different after-use alternatives were site GHG emissions, carbon assimilation by plants, and emissions from combustion, while management-related emissions played a relatively minor role. The results of this study indicate that, from the perspective of atmospheric impact, the most suitable after-use option for an abandoned peat extraction area is cultivation of RCG.     

Regional carbon cycle responses to 25 years of variation in climate and disturbance in the US Pacific Northwest

Variation in climate, disturbance regime, and forest management strongly influence terrestrial carbon sources and sinks. Spatially distributed, process-based, carbon cycle simulation models provide a means to integrate information on these various influences to estimate carbon pools and flux over large domains. Here we apply the Biome-BGC model over the four-state Northwest US region for the interval from 1986 to 2010. Landsat data were used to characterize disturbances, and forest inventory data were used to parameterize the model. The overall disturbance rate on forest land across the region was 0.8 % year^?1, with 49 % as harvests, 28 % as fire, and 23 % as pest/pathogen. Net ecosystem production (NEP) for the 2006–2010 interval on forestland was predominantly positive (a carbon sink) throughout the region, with maximum values in the Coast Range, intermediate values in the Cascade Mountains, and relatively low values in the Inland Rocky Mountain ecoregions. Localized negative NEPs were mostly associated with recent disturbances. There was large interannual variation in regional NEP, with notably low values across the region in 2003, which was also the warmest year in the interval. The recent (2006–2010) net ecosystem carbon balance (NECB) was positive for the region (14.4 TgC year^?1). Despite a lower area-weighted mean NECB, public forestland contributed a larger proportion to the total NECB because of its larger area. Aggregated forest inventory data and inversion modeling are beginning to provide opportunities for evaluating model-simulated regional carbon stocks and fluxes.     

Use patterns of natural resources supporting livelihoods of smallholder communities and implications for climate change adaptation in Zimbabwe

Declining crop and livestock production due to a degrading land resource base and changing climate among other biophysical and socio-economic constraints, is increasingly forcing rural households in Zimbabwe and other parts of Southern Africa to rely on common natural resource pools (CNRPs) to supplement their household food and income. Between 2011 and 2013, we combined farmer participatory research approaches, remote sensing and geographic information systems (GIS) to (1) understand the contribution of CNRPs to household food and income in Dendenyore and Ushe smallholder communities in Hwedza District, eastern Zimbabwe and (2) assess changes of the CNRPs in both space and time, and their implications on climate change adaptation. Across study sites, wetlands and woodlands were ranked as the most important CNRPs. Extraction and use patterns of products from the different pools differed among households of different resource endowment. Resource-constrained households (RG3) sold an average of 183 kg household^?1 year^?1 of wild loquats fruits (Uapaca kirkiana), realising about US$48, while resource-endowed farmers (RG1) had no need to sale any. The RG3 households also realised approximately US$70 household^?1 year^?1 from sale of crafts made from water reeds (Phragmites mauritianus). Empirical data closely supported communities’ perceptions that CNRPs had declined significantly in recent years compared with two to three decades ago. More than 60 % of the respondents perceived that the availability of natural resources drawn from wetlands and woodlands, often used for food, energy and crafts, has decreased markedly since the 1980s. Classification of land cover in a GIS environment indicated that CNRPs declined between 1972 and 2011, supporting farmers’ perceptions. Overall, woodlands declined by 37 % in both communities, while the total area under wetlands decreased by 29 % in Ushe, a drier area and 49 % in Dendenyore, a relatively humid area. The over-reliance in CNRPs by rural communities could be attributed to continued decline in crop yields linked to increased within-season rainfall variability, and the absence of alternative food and income sources. This suggests limited options for rural communities to adapt to the changing food production systems in the wake of climate change and variability and other challenges such as declining soil fertility. There is therefore a need to design adaptive farm management options that enhance both crop and livestock production in a changing climate as well as identifying other livelihood alternatives outside agriculture to reduce pressure on CNRPs. In addition, promotion of alternative sources of energy such as solar power and biogas among rural communities could reduce the cutting of trees for firewood from woodlands.     

Practical tools for quantitative analysis of coastal vulnerability and sea level rise impacts—application in a Caribbean island and assessment of the 1.5 °C threshold

The quantitative analysis of hurricane impacts on coastal development in the Caribbean is surprisingly infrequent and many tools to assess physical vulnerability to sea level rise (SLR) are insufficient to evaluate risk in coastal areas exposed to wave attack during extreme events. This paper proposes a practical methodology to quantify coastal hazards and evaluate SLR impact scenarios in coastal areas, providing quantitative input for coastal vulnerability analysis. We illustrate the implementation of the proposed methodology with results from a site-specific analysis. We quantify how storm wave impacts penetrate farther inland and reach higher elevations for increasing SLR conditions. We also show that the increase in elevation of storm wave impacts is more than the nominal increase in mean sea level, and that elevation increase may be on the order of up to twice the nominal SLR. By developing design parameters for multiple scenarios, as opposed to the determination of a single SLR value for design established by consensus, this approach generates information that we argue encourages resilient design and embedding future adaptation in coastal design. We discuss how government planners and regulators, as well as real estate developers, lenders, and investors, can improve coastal planning and resilient design of coastal projects by using this approach.     

Socio-economic vulnerability of the megacity of Shanghai (China) to sea-level rise and associated storm surges

Sea-level rise (SLR) poses a significant threat to many coastal areas and will likely have important impacts on socio-economic development in those regions. Located on the eastern coast in China, the megacity of Shanghai is particularly vulnerable to SLR and associated storm surge risks. Using the municipality of Shanghai as a case study, the possible impacts of flooding risks caused by SLR and associated storm surges on socio-economic development in the region were analysed by a Source–Pathway–Receptor–Consequence (SPRC) conceptual model. The projections of flooding risk in the study area were simulated by MIKE21 (a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model) for the three time periods of 2030, 2050 and 2100. An index system for vulnerability assessment was devised, in which flooding depth, density of population, GDP per capita, GDP per unit land, loss rate under flooding and fiscal revenue were selected as the key indicators. A quantitative spatial assessment method based on a GIS platform was established by quantifying each indicator, calculating and then grading the vulnerability index. The results showed that in the 2030 projection, 99.3 % of the areas show no vulnerability to SLR and associated storm surges under the present infrastructure. By 2050, the areas with low, moderate and high vulnerabilities change significantly to 5.3, 8.0 and 23.9 %, respectively, while by 2100, the equivalent figures are 12.9, 6.3 and 30.7 %. The application of the SPRC model, the methodology and the results from this study could assist with the objective and quantitative assessment of the socio-economic vulnerability of other similar coastal regions undergoing the impacts of SLR and associated storm surges. Based on the results of this study, mitigation and adaptation measures should be considered, which include the controlling the rate of land subsidence, the reinforcement of coastal defence systems and the introduction of adaptation in long-term urban planning.     

Physical basis of coastal adaptation on tropical small islands

Small tropical islands are widely recognized as having high exposure and vulnerability to climate change and other natural hazards. Ocean warming and acidification, changing storm patterns and intensity, and accelerated sea-level rise pose challenges that compound the intrinsic vulnerability of small, remote, island communities. Sustainable development requires robust guidance on the risks associated with natural hazards and climate change, including the potential for island coasts and reefs to keep pace with rising sea levels. Here we review these issues with special attention to their implications for climate-change vulnerability, adaptation, and disaster risk reduction in various island settings. We present new projections for 2010–2100 local sea-level rise (SLR) at 18 island sites, incorporating crustal motion and gravitational fingerprinting, for a range of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change global projections and a semi-empirical model. Projected 90-year SLR for the upper limit A1FI scenario with enhanced glacier drawdown ranges from 0.56 to 1.01 m for islands with a measured range of vertical motion from ?0.29 to +0.10 m. We classify tropical small islands into four broad groups comprising continental fragments, volcanic islands, near-atolls and atolls, and high carbonate islands including raised atolls. Because exposure to coastal forcing and hazards varies with island form, this provides a framework for consideration of vulnerability and adaptation strategies. Nevertheless, appropriate measures to adjust for climate change and to mitigate disaster risk depend on a place-based understanding of island landscapes and of processes operating in the coastal biophysical system of individual islands.     

Farm-level assessment of CO2 and N2O emissions in Lower Saxony and comparison of implementation potentials for mitigation measures in Germany and England

Greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions from agricultural farming practice contribute significantly to European GHG inventories. For example, CO₂ is emitted when grassland is converted to cropland or when peatlands are drained and cultivated. N₂O emissions result from fertilization. Enabling farmers to reduce their GHG emissions requires sufficient information about its pressure–impact relations as well as incentives, such as regulations and funding, that support climate-friendly agricultural management. This paper discusses potentials to improve the supply of information on: farm-specific climate services or impacts, present policy incentives in Germany and England that support climate-friendly farm management and related adaptation requirements. Tools which have been developed for a farm environmental management software (to be added after review because of potential identification) are presented. These tools assess CO₂ emissions from grassland conversion to cropland and peatland cultivation, as well as N₂O emissions from nitrogen fertilization. As input data, the CO₂ tool requires a classification of soil types according to soil organic carbon storage. The input data based on soil profile samples was compared with reference data from the literature. The N₂O tool relies on farm data concerning fertilization. These tools were tested on three farms in order to determine their viability with respect to the availability of required data and the differentiation of results, which determines how well site-specific conservation measures can be identified. Assessing CO₂ retention function of grassland conservation to cropland on the test farms leads to spatially differentiated results (~100 to ~900 potentially mitigated t CO₂ ha^?1). Assessed N₂O emissions varied from 0.41 to 1.1 t CO₂eq. ha^?1 a^?1. The proposed methods support policies that promote a more differentiated funding of climate conservation measures. Conservation measures and areas can be selected so that they will have the greatest mitigation effects. However, even though present policy instruments in Germany and England, such as Cross Compliance and agri-environmental measures, have the potential to reduce agricultural GHG, they do not appear to guide measures effectively or site-specifically. In order to close this gap, agri-environmental measures with the potential to support climate protection should be spatially optimized. Additionally, the wetland restoration measures which are most effective in reducing GHG emissions should be included in funding schemes.     

Influence of global warming on coastal infrastructural instability

The increasing infrastructure instability is an important issue in relation to the influences of global climate change in urban areas. A serious issue pertaining to this is the dual nature of damage triggered by events combined with climate change and natural hazards. For example, catastrophic damage could result from the combination of global warming with a great earthquake, which is a worst-case scenario. Although this worst-case scenario has rarely occurred and presents a low probability of occurrence, countermeasures must be prepared in advance based on an appropriate response and adaptation strategies. After an overview of possible infrastructural instabilities caused by global warming, methodologies are proposed placing emphasis on the increasing probability of infrastructural instability triggered by natural hazards resulting from groundwater-level (GWL) variations. These effects are expected to be particularly serious in coastal regions because of the influence of the rising sea level resulting from global warming. The influence of sea-level rises (SLR) will become apparent along with land subsidence because groundwater abstraction will become severe in coastal regions. Additionally, the probability of earthquake liquefaction increases if GWL rises in accompaniment with SLR. Using case histories, we examined the possible occurrence of these natural hazards as a result of global warming. Finally, possible countermeasures and adaptation strategies for reducing and mitigating infrastructure damage accelerated by global warming are described for each case in specific regions. In particular, special attention should be paid to adaptation strategies in coastal lowlands, which particularly suffer from the effects of land subsidence.     

Direct N2O emission from agricultural soils in Poland between 1960 and 2009

Nitrogen fertilization (N) is commonly known as a main source of direct nitrous oxide (N₂O) emission from agricultural soils. An area of 38 % of the total land surface of Poland was covered by agricultural soils in 2009. In this paper, we aimed at analyzing data regarding the land exploitation for 13 selected subareas of Poland between 1960 and 2009. Seven out of the 13 subareas studied are located in the West (area A), and six subareas are located in southeast of Poland (area B). The total area covered by large farms (>20 ha) differed largely, between area A (10.6 %) and area B (0.9 %) in 2009. Both areas varied in terms of the amount of fertilizers used annually, average crop yield and crop structure. Average direct emissions of N₂O from agricultural soils were 1.66 ± 0.09 kg N₂O–N ha^?1 a^?1 for area A, 1.39 ± 0.07 kg N₂O–N ha^?1 a^?1 for area B and 1.46 ± 0.07 kg N₂O–N ha^?1 a^?1 for the whole country between 1960 and 2009.     

Species richness,structure, and conservation of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Nitraria retusa</Emphasis> communities in the coastal salt marshes of Kuwait

Although the coastal salt marshes of Arabian Gulf have been altered extensively by human development activities, there is a paucity of data describing changes in the distribution and abundance of native coastal plant communities. The main objectives of this study are to determine vegetation condition, size structure, and conservation status of Nitraria retusa, a medicinal and salt-tolerant shrub, in disturbed and non-disturbed coastal salt marshes of Kuwait. Size measurements of Nitraria shrubs and nabkas, which are mounds of sediment developed around shrubs, were carried out in 50 quadrats (20 × 20 m²), randomly selected inside and outside Sabah Al-Ahmad Natural Reserve. Species richness and soil properties of nabkas and interspaces, the open areas between the nabkas, were also measured. The results revealed that nabkas of Nitraria in non-disturbed sites are more stable and rich in plant diversity than those in disturbed sites. Mean height and mean canopy diameter of Nitraria shrubs, total plant cover, and species richness are significantly higher in non-disturbed sites than disturbed sites, which indicate the positive influences of conservation for long term on vegetation structure and species richness. The results of soil analyses indicate the important role of nabkas in providing refuges for plant life and species diversity. The present study indicates that more than 50 % of the N. retusa community has been lost during the last few decades. Therefore, N. retusa should be considered an endangered species in Kuwait. The reduction in vegetation cover, a decline in species richness, and the overall degradation of salt marshes are attributed to human development activities along the coast of Kuwait. Effective conservation actions for threatened species in degraded coastal salt marshes of this region include establishment of protective enclosures, prohibitions on development that adversely affects native plant communities, and the planting native salt-tolerant shrubs to facilitate regeneration.     

Climate change impacts on a pine stand in Central Siberia

The objective of this paper is to analyse the impacts of climate change on a pine forest stand in Central Siberia (Zotino) to assess benefits and risks for such forests in the future. We use the regional statistical climate model STARS to develop a set of climate change scenarios assuming a temperature increase by mid-century of 1, 2, 3 and 4 K. The process-based forest growth model 4C is applied to a 200-year-old pine forest to analyse impacts on carbon and water balance as well as the risk of fire under these climate change scenarios. The climate scenarios indicate precipitation increases mainly during winter and decreases during summer with increasing temperature trend. They cause rising forest productivity up to about 20 % in spite of increasing respiration losses. At the same time, the water-use efficiency increases slightly from 2.0 g C l^?1 H₂O under current climate to 2.1 g C l^?1 H₂O under 4 K scenario indicating that higher water losses from increasing evapotranspiration do not appear to lead to water limitations for the productivity at this site. The simulated actual evaporation increases by up to 32 %, but the climatic water balance decreases by up to 20 % with increasing temperature trend. In contrast, the risk of fire indicated by the Nesterov index clearly increases. Our analysis confirms increasing productivity of the boreal pine stand but also highlights increasing drought stress and risks from abiotic disturbances which could cancel out productivity gains.     

Estimating the effect of nitrogen fertilizer on the greenhouse gas balance of soils in Wales under current and future climate

The Welsh Government is committed to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agricultural systems and combat the effects of future climate change. In this study, the ECOSSE model was applied spatially to estimate GHG and soil organic carbon (SOC) fluxes from three major land uses (grass, arable and forest) in Wales. The aims of the simulations were: (1) to estimate the annual net GHG balance for Wales; (2) to investigate the efficiency of the reduced nitrogen (N) fertilizer goal of the sustainable land management scheme (Glastir), through which the Welsh Government offers financial support to farmers and land managers on GHG flux reduction; and (3) to investigate the effects of future climate change on the emissions of GHG and plant net primary production (NPP). Three climate scenarios were studied: baseline (1961–1990) and low and high emission climate scenarios (2015–2050). Results reveal that grassland and cropland are the major nitrous oxide (N₂O) emitters and consequently emit more GHG to the atmosphere than forests. The overall average simulated annual net GHG balance for Wales under baseline climate (1961–1990) is equivalent to 0.2 t CO₂e ha^?1 y^?1 which gives an estimate of total annual net flux for Wales of 0.34 Mt CO₂e y^?1. Reducing N fertilizer by 20 and 40 % could reduce annual net GHG fluxes by 7 and 25 %, respectively. If the current N fertilizer application rate continues, predicted climate change by the year 2050 would not significantly affect GHG emissions or NPP from soils in Wales.