甘肃省地震灾害时空分布特征研究

基于GIS平台对甘肃省历史地震灾害进行了时空分布特征分析,以期为甘肃省地震灾害评估、应急救援工作提供科学依据。研究结果表明:(1)甘肃省历史上发生过强烈地震(M≥4.75)188次,地震灾害在空间上分布于59个区县,遍布甘肃省13个地市(除金昌市),全省地震灾害无显著的空间分异格局;(2)甘肃省在大地震灾害影响程度上存在显著的差异,根据区域差异大致可将甘肃省划分为2个区域:河西和河东地区。河西地区的地震灾害震中烈度比同震级的河东地区地震小,地震灾害影响范围也较小;(3)区域地震活动呈现周期性的起伏变化,其中1917-1936年为甘肃省近百年来地震活动最为频繁的阶段,发生过3次特别重大地震灾害(M≥7.0),目前甘肃省正处于另一个地震活跃期;(4)地震灾害人员伤亡存在地区差异,同震级地震河东地区人员伤亡较河西地区严重。甘肃省农村人口比重偏大,地震灾害比其他经济发达省份更为严重。     

中国大陆地震灾害生命损失时空特征分析

以1966-2016年中国大陆地震灾害生命损失数据为研究对象,基于GIS平台定量分析中国大陆地震灾害生命损失时空分布特征。研究结果表明:(1)中国大陆造成生命损失的地震次数为143次,占成灾地震(有经济损失或人员伤亡的地震)的25%。成灾地震平均每年发生9. 45次,而造成人员死亡的地震平均每年发生2. 38次。(2)中国大陆致死性地震造成的死亡人数突出,重特大地震对累计地震死亡人数作用明显,地震灾害生命损失呈高度集中的特点。(3)中国大陆地震灾害分布广,大陆31个省市自治区中28个省份发生过成灾地震,因地震导致有人员死亡的省份有18个,其中河北省、四川省、云南省因地震灾害导致的累计人员死亡占全国的比例高达90%。地震灾害总体呈现中小地震在多震省份生命损失较小,在少震省份生命损失反而较大。(4)50年中国大陆地震灾害累计人员死亡高达34. 66万人,其中城市直下型地震贡献率高达71%。(5)地震灾害生命损失分布受人口密度影响显著,以人口分界线"胡焕庸线"为界,呈现东高西低,与地震发生频次相反。     

探测活动断层防范地震灾害——海口市江东新区活断层探测简介

我国疆域内地震多、分布广、强度大,是世界上地震灾害最为严重的国家.在占全球陆地总面积7％的国土上发生了占全球35％的7级以上地震,且我国50％以上(337个)的城市和70％(103个)的百万以上人口大中城市都位于有活动断层分布的Ⅶ度或以上地震高烈度区.活动断层探测作为防灾减灾救灾的基础工作,长期受到我国各级政府的高度重...     

2011年中国大陆地震灾害损失述评

列出了2011年中国境内5.0级以上地震目录,总结了当年我国大陆地区各次地震灾害事件的基础数据信息和灾害信息,结合该年度我国大陆地区地震灾害事件发生所在省(自治区、直辖市)地震局的地震灾害评估资料,总结、归纳了2011年我国大陆地区地震灾害的主要数据和特性。最后,列出了1990年以来我国大陆地震灾害的相关数据,并进行了简单的比较。     

福州市区地震灾害损失预测研究

基于福州市区地震危险性分析、地震地质灾害区划、建筑物和生命线易损性分析及防震减灾信息管理系统,本文介绍了在设定地震、历史地震、盲估地震和实时地震等4种不同地震参数输入下福州市区可能遭遇的地震灾害损失预测成果,提出了依据地面数据精度和设施类型划分的大城市地震灾害损失预测城市核心区、城乡结合部和乡村三个层次方案,并在此基础上确定了地震灾害损失的预测评估单元,即在城市核心区,地震灾害的损失评估单元可以是建筑物、居委会或区;在城乡结合部,地震灾害的损失评估以居委会或区为单元;在乡村地震灾害损失评估以乡镇和自然村为单元。根据系统模块,本文预测了8度地震烈度下福州市区地震灾害的总损失及其空间分布,其中全市区人员死亡约123人,重伤约654人,无家可归者约417100人,直接经济损失156.1亿元,并分析了地震灾害损失空间分布不均匀性的主要原因。     

“一带一路”地区百余年地震时空演变特征

本研究基于“一带一路”地区1900-2018年间≥5级地震事件空间数据,采用小波周期与热区识别方法,分析了该地区地震灾害的空间分布格局与时间周期性特征,并识别了地震灾害空间热区及其演变特征。研究表明:(1)1900-2018年,“一带一路”地区地震发生频次表现出波动性上升的“三段式”分布,主要发生在亚欧大陆-喜马拉雅山周围的亚欧板块与印度洋板块的交界处以及俄罗斯东部沿海、印度尼西亚东南部的环太平洋地区;(2)地震频发地区和震级较强地区均具有多时间尺度的周期变化特征,及一定的空间聚集性,并逐渐演变成高发热区和高强热区;(3)中国和印度尼西亚发生频率远高于其他国家,而缅甸、孟加拉、马尔代夫等国发生频次较低,但其震级强度相对较大。研究结果提示我们未来针对“一带一路”地区基础设施的投资应适当规避地震频发地区及未来潜在的高强热区,同时加强国际间减灾防灾合作,从而更好的降低或预防“一带一路”地区基础设施建设的地震灾害风险。     

历史地震资料整理与利用的现状与发展——以江苏省及其邻近地区为例

历史地震资料的整理出版为研究地震的发生与预防提供了丰富的基础资料.我国的地震科技工作者通过分析与利用这些资料进行地震科研与应用工作,得到不同地区的地震发生的特点和规律,统计得到用于地震区划和地震预测的许多基础数据以及地震衰减和地震灾害的规律,为我国的抗震设防提供了依据.本文以江苏及邻近地区为例,综述了中国历史地震研究的现状与主要成果.     

利用信息扩散模式对安徽及华东地区地震的风险分析

本文利用信息扩散模式,分别从年地震频次和年最大震级两个方面对安徽及华东地区的地震风险进行评估.结果显示:安徽地区ML≥3.0地震,年频次4次以上,约两年一遇;年发生ML≥3.9地震,则3年可能遇一次.而华东地区ML≥4.0地震,年频次4次以上,大约3年一遇;年发生ML≥4.9的地震,则可能2年遇一次.     

江苏—上海地区历史地震时空分布特征概述

<正> 近年来随着地震历史资料发掘工作的深入,地震资料大为丰富。本文就是在《江苏地震历史资料汇编》(内部)基础上,参照即将出版的《江苏省地震志》部分内容,探讨江苏——上海地区地震时空分布特征并进而尝试评议江苏省重点地震监视区。一、江苏——上海地区历史地震空间分布特征 1.概况李善邦教授于1960年整理出我国第一部《中国地震目录》,其中江苏——上海陆地M_s≥4 3/4级地震有11次,经修订、增补及1960年后发生的M_s≥4 3/4级地震有11次,共22次(见表1)。     

陕西省城市地震灾害现状及防御对策

地震灾害的突发性和破坏性给人类带来严重的灾难,随着城市化进程的加快,人口和财富的集中,地震造成的灾害将更加严重.分析了陕西省城市地震灾害现状、历史强震给城市带来的严重破坏和人员伤亡,探讨了防震减灾工作存在的问题以及面临的挑战,针对性地提出了陕西省城市防御地震灾害的对策.     

Cholera in Sudan: An account of an epidemic in a refugee camp in eastern Sudan, May-June 1985

In 1985 cholera has been a serious problem in the horn of Africa, particularly affecting the many famine victims and refugees in that region. In this paper the history of cholera in Africa is briefly summarized, as is the background to the current refugee situation in eastern Sudan. A cholera epidemic involving 1,175 cases in two adjacent refugee camps in eastern Sudan is described. In this epidemic there were thirteen inpatient deaths and thirty-eight known home deaths from cholera. The management of the epidemic is described in detail. Overall an average of 8 1. of intravenous fluid was used per case, a higher figure than was anticipated, probably because of the unexpected degree of vomiting and the shortage of trained nursing staff.
The relationship between cholera and malnutrition is explored and hypochlorhydria is suggested as the main reason for the increased susceptibility to cholera among malnourished populations. It was observed that severely malnourished adults and children appeared to nave less severe diarrhoea with their cholera, presumably because of reduced mucosal surface area and poor enterocyte function. Finally possible means of aborting cholera epidemics are discussed.     

A retrospective statistical review of deaths owing to migration through the southeasternmost land borders of the European Union,Greece 2000–14

The land borders of Evros, Greece, have been a common entry point for undocumented migrants on their way to Europe through Turkey. Adverse conditions, however, have resulted in many human casualties over the years. On the Greek side, 334 cadavers were retrieved between 2000 and 2014. This study provides a detailed forensic account of the humanitarian disaster in Evros to create an official scientific record of the situation. It showcases the gravity of the global issue of migration relating to health and mortality, and encourages communication and continual improvement of the approach and patterns of practices surrounding the subject. A retrospective statistical research review was conducted of border‐related fatalities between 2000 and 2014, assessing the age and gender of victims, the cause of death, the location of bodies, identification rates, and country of origin. Age ranged generally from 24 to 29 years, but infants and children were among the deceased.     

Complexity,continuity and change: livelihood resilience in the Darfur region of Sudan

Darfur farming and pastoralist livelihoods are both adaptations to the environmental variability that characterises the region. This article describes this adaptation and the longer‐term transformation of these specialised livelihoods from the perspective of local communities. Over several decades farmers and herders have experienced a continuous stream of climate, conflict and other shocks, which, combined with wider processes of change, have transformed livelihoods and undermined livelihood institutions. Their well‐rehearsed specialist strategies are now combined with new strategies to cope. These responses help people get by in the short term but risk antagonising not only their specialist strategies but also those of others. A combination of factors has undermined the former integration between farming and pastoralism and their livelihood institutions. Efforts to build resilience in similar contexts must take a long‐term view of livelihood adaptation as a specialisation, and consider the implications of new strategies for the continuity and integration of livelihood specialisations.     

The cultural politics of mining and natural disaster in Indonesia: by fire and sword

Natural disasters are inevitably the outcome of cultural agonisms. The cultural politics of natural disasters are shaped by competing claims and conceptions of ‘nature’. Recent disasters in Indonesia are directly linked to these contending conceptions and the ways in which different social groups imagine risk and reward. The Sidoarjo volcanic mudflow of 2006 represents a volatile and violent exemplar of contending cultural and economic claims. Like other disasters in Indonesia and elsewhere in the developing world, this ‘natural’ disaster is characterised by differing conceptions of ‘nature’ as cultural tradition, divine force, and natural resource. A new extractive project in East Java is exhibiting similar economic and cultural agonisms, particularly around the notion of development, environment, self‐determination, and tradition. This paper examines the ‘disputes over meaning’ associated with natural disasters in contemporary societies, and the ways in which they are related to human culture, social organisation, and hierarchical systems of violence.     

Reflections on 40 years of Disasters, 1977–2017

This reflection, based on a keynote address to celebrate the fortieth anniversary of Disasters on 14 September 2017, begins by considering some of the prevailing assumptions that existed at the time of the journal's creation. Next is a summary of significant milestones during the past 40 years, covering major global trends, changing disaster impacts, and key developments in disaster risk management. Contrasting approaches in the first and fourth decade of the journal's history are then followed by examples of changes in terminology in the disaster field as an indication of shifting values. The paper goes on to explore the context of 2017, with observations of problem areas such as the loss of knowledge, failures to tackle the root causes of disasters, shortfalls in international assistance, and some negative attitudes. It closes by evaluating some current positive occurrences, including a reduction in casualties, sharing of experience, technological advances, and dramatic improvements in disaster warning.     

Risk communication in emergency response to a simulated extreme flood

Risk communication in flood incident management can be improved through developing hydrometeorological and engineering models used as tools for communicating risk between scientists and emergency management professionals. A range of such models and tools was evaluated by participating flood emergency managers during a 4-day, real-time simulation of an extreme event in the Thamesmead area in the Thames estuary close to London, England. Emergency managers have different communication needs and value new tools differently, but the indications are that a range of new tools could be beneficial in flood incident management. Provided they are communicated large model uncertainties are not necessarily unwelcome among flood emergency managers. Even so they are cautious about sharing the ownership of weather and flood modelling uncertainties.     

Fiji, land of tropical cyclones and hurricanes: A case study of agricultural rehabilitation

Tropical cyclones and hurricanes have a severe impact on the social and economic activities of affected communities. For small island nations in the Pacific region, the effects can be devastating because of their smallness. FQi and several other countries in the region are vulnerable to such disasters as they are situated in the zone where cyclones occur frequently.
During the last decade, the frequency of natural disasters and their adverse impact on die economic and social development of small nations like Fiji, has aroused awareness mat relief efforts must go beyond immediate "mopping up" operations to those which contribute to attaining longer term benefits through reconstruction and rehabilitation.
The paper outlines the 1985 agricultural rehabilitation program and discusses related issues and problems.     

Tsunami survivors' perspectives on vulnerability and vulnerability reduction: evidence from Koh Phi Phi Don and Khao Lak, Thailand

This paper presents the results of primary research with 40 survivors of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami in two communities: Khao Lak (n=20) and Koh Phi Phi Don (n=20), Thailand. It traces tsunami survivors' perceptions of vulnerability, determines whether residents felt that the tsunami affected different communities differently, identifies the populations and sub-community groups that survivors distinguished as being more vulnerable than others, highlights community-generated ideas about vulnerability reduction, and pinpoints a range of additional vulnerability reduction actions. Tsunami survivors most consistently identified the 'most vulnerable' community sub-populations as women, children, the elderly, foreigners, and the poor. In Khao Lak, however, respondents added 'Burmese migrants' to this list, whereas in Koh Phi Phi Don, they added 'Thai Muslims'. Results suggest that the two case study communities, both small, coastal, tourism-dominated communities no more than 100 kilometres apart, have differing vulnerable sub-groups and environmental vulnerabilities, requiring different post-disaster vulnerability reduction efforts.     

The ethical contours of research in crisis settings: five practical considerations for academic institutional review boards and researchers

The number of research studies in the humanitarian field is rising. It is imperative, therefore, that institutional review boards (IRBs) consider carefully the additional risks present in crisis contexts to ensure that the highest ethical standards are upheld. Ethical guidelines should represent better the specific issues inherent to research among populations grappling with armed conflict, disasters triggered by natural hazards, or health‐related emergencies. This paper seeks to describe five issues particular to humanitarian settings that IRBs should deliberate and on which they should provide recommendations to overcome associated challenges: staged reviews of protocols in acute emergencies; flexible reviews of modification requests; addressing violence and the traumatic experiences of participants; difficulties in attaining meaningful informed consent among populations dependent on aid; and ensuring reviews are knowledgeable of populations' needs. Considering these matters when reviewing protocols will yield more ethically sound research in humanitarian settings and hold researchers accountable to appropriate ethical standards.