共查询到19条相似文献,搜索用时 193 毫秒
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巨灾风险评估模型的发展与研究 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
巨灾已经成为全球经济损失的重要原因之一。近20年来,巨灾频繁发生,造成了重大的人员伤亡和财产损失,巨灾的发生甚至可能造成国家政治经济的不稳定。因此如何进行巨灾风险管理并减轻巨灾事件发生后所造成的损害,便成为一个相当重要的研究课题。巨灾风险评估模型作为应对巨灾风险最为有效的分析工具,近20年来得到了长足的发展,同时巨灾模型已成为巨灾保险设立的根本依据。对巨灾模型的发展与模型构架进行了综述,并结合我国的实际情况提出了一些建议。 相似文献
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随着经济全球化的不断发展,巨灾对全球贸易的影响问题越来越受到人们的普遍关注,为此该文构建了全球的贸易引力模型,结合1980-2012年全球各个国家与地区的GDP、相互距离、人口、国土面积、共同边界、共同语言和巨灾发生频次等数据,并采用泊松伪最大似然法估计了模型中的参数,确定了贸易对不同影响因子的弹性。结果表明:巨灾对全球贸易的影响是显著的,发生在进口国家与地区巨灾频次的增加,会导致其进口量的增加;发生在出口国家与地区巨灾频次的增加,会导致其出口量的减少。且从全球平均水平来看,巨灾对出口的抑制作用大于对进口的促进作用。 相似文献
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基于保户和保险公司共享的最佳巨灾保险 总被引:2,自引:2,他引:0
采用数学模型方法研究巨灾保险,提出了保险合同怎样创新的问题.该问题的提出有利于解决巨灾保险供应不足的弊端.对保户而言,这一创新将拥有更大的弹性,进而改善其福利.通过分解巨灾风险发生的频率和损害程度,说明了保险合同怎样设计才对保户最有利.最后,在同时考虑风险发生的频率和严重性的情况下,得出了一般化模型. 相似文献
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准确厘定了粮食巨灾保险的费率,系为政府保险支农政策的制订提供技术支持。巨灾事件属于极值事件,故巨灾保险的费率可基于极值理论进行厘定。按照费率厘定的参数法思路,以广义帕累托分布(GPD)作为粮食灾损数据的尾部分布,采用极大似然法估计其参数,进而厘定粮食巨灾保险的纯费率。以稻谷为例,厘定了我国各省(市、区)稻谷巨灾保险的纯费率。应完善法律法规就粮食巨灾保险加以明确,同时加大政府的政策扶持力度,对不同省(市、区)的稻谷巨灾保险参照其纯费率给予有区别的保费补贴,并给予粮食主产区的稻谷巨灾保险更充分的优惠政策。 相似文献
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本文提出了防灾工程的抗力、灾损度和灾害的灾度、灾害势以及动态决策准则等概念,基于现代控制理论,初步建立了防灾工程动态投资决策的一般方法,并对其进行了理论分析和研究。这里的决策包括防灾工程的初始投资(或设防水平)决策及其防灾规划期(或寿命期)内的防灾减灾维护投资(或维护水平)决策.文中还给出了算例,对上述方法进行了应用。算例结果表明,本文提出的防灾工程动态投资决策方法具有比较显著的经济效益。 相似文献
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The Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool (TCIP) is one of the best practices of public–private partnerships in an emerging market designed to reduce economic losses from disasters. This paper reviews the application of this compulsory mechanism along with data relating to the performance of the scheme following recent earthquakes in Turkey. We also consider the current perceptions of Turkish society towards the TCIP and how they can be enhanced. Our conclusions aim to assist stakeholders in government, homeowners, insurance companies, media, banks and civil society to appreciate the value of the system and key actions necessary to improve it. 相似文献
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上海城市发展与其海域赤潮的关系分析 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
近年来,我国沿海地区赤潮爆发频率明显增加,规模不断扩大,对沿海经济的危害程度日益加重。赤潮是自然环境和人类活动共同作用的结果,如何科学地分析沿海城市的经济发展与赤潮灾害的关系已成为迫切需要解决的问题。本文将1978~2004年上海城市发展的相关指标与其海域赤潮发生频率及累计影响面积进行对比分析,结果表明:27年间上海海域出现了2次赤潮高峰期;赤潮灾害规模与上海城市的经济发展、人口增长、沿岸养殖业及农业、陆源排泄物等有密切关系;随着经济的快速发展,上海海域的赤潮频率及影响面积也在不断增加。 相似文献
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《Environmental Hazards》2013,12(2):187-191
The paper considers climate change from a hazard to economic development and public security perspective. Integration of climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction policies is substantiated, building upon resilience concept as a unique methodological basis and civil protection measures as a common practice. Specific recommendations to implement this integration are introduced. 相似文献
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灾难模型化及其国外主要开发商 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
简略分析了灾难模型化和它在保险业中的应用;介绍了当前国外从事灾难模型化的主要研发单位,包括独立的模型化公司、大学研究所、再保险公司、再保险中介经纪公司和政府机构。同时收集了一些最近灾难模型化些文献,希望这些信息能有助于同行在我国减灾保险方面的研究。 相似文献
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Mohammad R. Zolfaghari 《Disasters》2010,34(2):524-541
Many mega cities in developing countries are exposed to the sources of natural catastrophes, particularly seismic activity. A high level of seismic hazard in some of these places, coupled with a relatively high degree of vulnerability within the built environment, can result in dire human and economic consequences. This paper contains examples of such potentially disruptive factors in relation to Tehran, Iran. It presents preliminary seismic loss estimates for residential buildings in a pilot area of northern Tehran. The paper briefly investigates the effectiveness of risk management measures and loss compensation mechanisms before assessing the feasibility of an insurance‐based risk transfer instrument for managing potential seismic losses among residential buildings in Tehran. It goes on to suggest how probabilistic catastrophe loss modelling can help local insurers to manage their portfolios and facilitate risk sharing among insurance companies and households. Finally, the paper addresses the question of how catastrophe loss modelling can help to strengthen the penetration of property insurance in developing countries. 相似文献
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《Environmental Hazards》2013,12(3):301-318
This review paper takes a case study approach to critically discuss how regeneration in the coastal resort of Porthcawl, South Wales has integrated flood defences as part of a strategic spatial planning and integrated policy coupling approach to the redesign of the town's seaside, promenade and harbour quarter. This planned initiative is part of a concerted effort to upgrade the town's waterfront and enable regeneration of a small seaside resort. From a resort cycle perspective, Porthcawl's perceived vulnerability to changing economic fortunes has prompted a master planning approach which is intended to bring together a mixed-use development programme with particular attention to urban design, strategic environmental assessment and public consultation. In different ways, this process has sought to raise public awareness of the issues and risks associated with the town's coastal location and to integrate flood defence aspects within the strategic regeneration plan as part of a greater sensitivity to climatic risks and potential flooding. This paper examines the adaptive capacity of coastal communities and the complex of socio-economic and spatio-temporal perspectives that shape policy developments in the planning, development and proactive management of coastal environments. The paper identifies the need to accommodate a new civic awareness of potential environmental hazards in articulating the public interest and balancing the trade-offs involved. 相似文献