Michigan's graduated driver licensing program: evaluation of the first four years

INTRODUCTION: To evaluate the four-year outcome of Michigan's graduated driver licensing (GDL) program, motor-vehicle crash data for 16-year-old drivers in 1996 (pre-GDL), and 1998-2001 (post-GDL) were analyzed. METHOD: Relative risks and 95% confidence intervals for several crash types were computed, and pre-post-GDL population-based crash rates were compared. Reductions in crash risks among 16-year-olds previously found in 1998 and 1999 were generally maintained in 2000 and 2001. RESULTS: Reductions in crash risk among 16-year-olds from 1996 to 2001 were 29% for all, 44% for fatal, 38% each for nonfatal-injury and fatal-plus-nonfatal-injury, 32% for day, 31% for evening, 59% for night, 32% for single-vehicle, and 28% for multi-vehicle crashes. Even after adjusting for more general population-wide changes among drivers 25 years and older that might have contributed to changes in 16-year-old crash risk, reductions remained impressive (19% for all crashes in 2001). IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: As one approach to reducing teenage motor-vehicle morbidity and mortality, GDL remains promising.     

The effect of extending graduated driver licensing to older novice drivers in Indiana

Introduction: Graduated driver licensing (GDL) systems have been shown to reduce rates of crashes, injuries, and deaths of young novice drivers. However, approximately one in three new drivers in the United States obtain their first driver’s license at age 18 or older, and thus are exempt from most or all provisions of GDL in most states. Method: In July 2015, the state of Indiana updated its GDL program, extending its restrictions on driving at night and on carrying passengers during the first 6 months of independent driving, previously only applicable to new drivers younger than 18, to all newly-licensed drivers younger than 21 years of age. The current study examined monthly rates of crashes per licensed driver under the affected conditions (driving at night and driving with passengers) among Indiana drivers first licensed at ages 18, 19, and 20 under the updated GDL system compared with drivers licensed at the same ages under the previous GDL system. We used Poisson regression to estimate the association between the GDL system and crash rates, while attempting to control for other factors that might have also influenced crash rates. We used linear regression to estimate the association between the GDL system and the proportion of all crashes that occurred under conditions restricted by the GDL program. Results: Results showed, contrary to expectations, that rates of crashes during restricted nighttime hours and with passengers were higher among drivers licensed under the updated GDL system. This mirrored a statewide increase in crash rates among drivers of all ages over the study period and likely reflected increased overall driving exposure. The proportions of all crashes that were at night or with passengers did not change. Practical Applications: More research is needed to understand how older novice drivers respond when GDL systems originally designed for younger novice drivers are applied to them.     

Teenage driver crash incidence and factors influencing crash injury by rurality

BackgroundPrevious research has identified teenage drivers as having an increased risk for motor-vehicle crash injury compared with older drivers, and rural roads as having increased crash severity compared with urban roads. Few studies have examined incidence and characteristics of teen driver-involved crashes on rural and urban roads.MethodsAll crashes involving a driver aged 10 through 18 were identified from the Iowa Department of Transportation crash data from 2002 through 2008. Rates of overall crashes and fatal or severe injury crashes were calculated for urban, suburban, rural, and remote rural areas. The distribution of driver and crash characteristics were compared between rural and urban crashes. Logistic regression was used to identify driver and crash characteristics associated with increased odds of fatal or severe injury among urban and rural crashes.ResultsFor younger teen drivers (age 10 through 15), overall crash rates were higher for more rural areas, although for older teen drivers (age 16 through 18) the overall crash rates were lower for rural areas. Rural teen crashes were nearly five times more likely to lead to a fatal or severe injury crash than urban teen crashes. Rural crashes were more likely to involve single vehicles, be late at night, involve a failure to yield the right-of-way and crossing the center divider.ConclusionsIntervention programs to increase safe teen driving in rural areas need to address specific risk factors associated with rural roadways.Impact on IndustryTeen crashes cause lost work time for teen workers as well as their parents. Industries such as safety, health care, and insurance have a vested interest in enhanced vehicle safety, and these efforts should address risks and injury differentials in urban and rural roadways.     

Graduated driver licensing in the United States: evaluation results from the early programs

BACKGROUND: Seventeen states enacted graduated driver licensing (GDL) programs that were implemented from 1996 through 1999 and for which evaluations are of interest. METHODS: We received evaluation results reported for six states for which data were available. Summarizing results is difficult in other than the most global terms because of differences in pre-GDL programs, differences in GDL programs, and differences in evaluation methodology. RESULTS: All states identified some crash reduction among teen drivers following GDL implementation. This positive effect was observed across different geographic regions, and with different GDL programs. Simple counts are down-fewer teens are experiencing crashes and becoming injured. After calculating crash rates to adjust for changes over time in populations or licensed drivers, reductions generally were still found. Population-adjusted risks of injury/fatal crash involvement of 16-year-old drivers in Florida and Michigan were reduced by 11% and 24%, respectively. Population-adjusted risks of any crash involvement of 16-year-old drivers in Michigan and North Carolina were reduced by 25% and 27%, respectively. Reductions in night (restricted hours) crash risk were impressive in Florida, Michigan, and North Carolina. A comparison state design was only possible in the Florida evaluation, and results showed greater crash reductions under GDL. Change-point analyses of Michigan's crash data trends over time provided additional support of GDL's effectiveness in reducing crashes. DISCUSSION: Taken as a whole, and including the preliminary findings from California, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, these reports demonstrate the early effectiveness of GDL in reducing the crash risk of teen drivers. The impact of these studies and others to come will guide future research, practice, and policy.     

Ability to monitor driving under the influence of marijuana among non-fatal motor-vehicle crashes: An evaluation of the Colorado electronic accident reporting system

Introduction: As more states legalize medical/recreational marijuana use, it is important to determine if state motor-vehicle surveillance systems can effectively monitor and track driving under the influence (DUI) of marijuana. This study assessed Colorado's Department of Revenue motor-vehicle crash data system, Electronic Accident Reporting System (EARS), to monitor non-fatal crashes involving driving under the influence (DUI) of marijuana. Methods: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidelines on surveillance system evaluation were used to assess EARS' usefulness, flexibility, timeliness, simplicity, acceptability, and data quality. We assessed system components, interviewed key stakeholders, and analyzed completeness of Colorado statewide 2014 motor-vehicle crash records. Results: EARS contains timely and complete data, but does not effectively monitor non-fatal motor-vehicle crashes related to DUI of marijuana. Information on biological sample type collected from drivers and toxicology results were not recorded into EARS; however, EARS is a flexible system that can incorporate new data without increasing surveillance system burden. Conclusions: States, including Colorado, could consider standardization of drug testing and mandatory reporting policies for drivers involved in motor-vehicle crashes and proactively address the narrow window of time for sample collection to improve DUI of marijuana surveillance. Practical applications: The evaluation of state motor-vehicle crash systems' ability to capture crashes involving drug impaired driving (DUID) is a critical first step for identifying frequency and risk factors for crashes related to DUID.     

A neglected risky behavior among children and adolescents: underage driving and injury in New South Wales,Australia

PROBLEM: Among different causes of injury, roads and traffic-related incidents contributed most to all child deaths. The majority of childhood and adolescent traffic-related deaths are young people killed as pedestrians or bicyclists. Underage driving is a particular risky behavior much neglected. This study aimed to describe some characteristics related to motor-vehicle crashes and crash-related injury in which the vehicle was driven by a young person who was under the legal age of obtaining a learner license in New South Wales, Australia. METHODS: Data used in this study were made available from the Roads and Traffic Authority of NSW for the period between 1996 and 2000. Crash information was collected and reported by NSW police at the scene of these motor-vehicle crash incidents. RESULTS: There were 526 crashes involving an underage driver recorded within the study period. The majority (79.5%) of these underage drivers were males with slightly more than half (58.0%) aged 15 years, and nearly 30% aged 14 years. Among these, 83.6% involved the driver of the vehicle being killed or injured. Among the injured or killed passengers, 128 (73.6%) were nonadult passengers under the age of 18 years. Seventy of these crashes occurred while the car was in pursuit by police. The adjusted relative risk of injury to at least one occupant in the vehicle should a crash occur for female underage drivers was two times (OR=2.01, 95% CI=1.27-3.20) as compared to male underage drivers. DISCUSSION: Underage driving poses a serious problem in terms of crash outcomes. Experimental driving and late-night outings for adolescents should be discouraged. Well-designed studies are required to further investigate the relationship between underage driving and on road risk-taking behavior among licensed adolescents. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: Data obtained from this study indicate that adults, particularly parents, should discourage underage adolescents from experimenting driving and should actively cultivate a positive attitude toward driving.     

Motor Vehicle Crashes on Bridges and Countermeasure Opportunities

There are approximately 600,000 highway bridges in the United States. These structures differ from surface streets and highways in terms of their physical properties and operational characteristics, which in turn, affect the risk of motor-vehicle crashes and the kinds of crashes that occur. The purpose of this study was to identify motor-vehicle crash patterns and contributing factors to bridge crashes and related countermeasure opportunities on four urban bridges in the New York metropolitan area. A crash typology was developed using the narratives and diagrams in police crash reports in addition to standard police classifications of crashes. The final dataset contained records of 1,381 police-reported crashes. The four bridges studied had higher crash rates than their respective approach roads. Four major crash types accounted for approximately 90% of the bridge crashes. Primary collision factors are reviewed, and potential countermeasures are discussed.     

Validation of not-at-fault driver representativeness assumption for quasi-induced exposure using U.S. national traffic databases

Introduction:The quasi-induced exposure (QIE) method has been widely implemented into traffic safety research. One of the key assumptions of QIE method is that not-at-fault drivers represent the driving population at the time of a crash. Recent studies have validated the QIE representative assumption using not-at-fault drivers from three-or-more vehicle crashes (excluding the first not-at-fault drivers; D3_other) as the reference group in single state crash databases. However, it is unclear if the QIE representativeness assumption is valid on a national scale and is a representative sample of driving population in the United States. The aims of this study were to assess the QIE representativeness assumption on a national scale and to evaluate if D3_other could serve as a representative sample of the U.S. driving population. Method: Using the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) and the National Occupant Protection Use Survey (NOPUS), distributions of driver gender, age, vehicle type, time, and roadway type among the not-at-fault drivers in clean two-vehicle crashes, the first not-at-fault drivers in three-or-more-vehicle crashes, and the remaining not-at-fault drivers in three-or-more vehicle crashes were compared to the driver population observed in NOPUS. Results: The results showed that with respect to driver gender, vehicle type, time, and roadway type, drivers among D3_other did not show statistical significant difference from NOPUS observations. The age distribution of D3_other driver was not practically different to NOPUS observations. Conclusions: Overall, we conclude that D3_other drivers in FARS represents the driving population at the time of the crash. Practical applications: Our study provides a solid foundation for future studies to utilize D3_other as the reference group to validate the QIE representativeness assumption and has potential to increase the generalizability of future FARS studies.     

Aggressive behavior while driving as predictor of self-reported car crashes

PROBLEM: In Greece, there is a lack of scientific evidence on the relationship between aggressive behavior while driving and young drivers' involvement in car crashes; this study examined this potential relationship. METHODS: The randomly selected samples of 356 young drivers (18-24 years old) were interviewed through a questionnaire of self-reported car crash involvement, which mainly focused on their behavior on the road and the number of car crashes in which they had been involved. RESULTS: The statistical methods used were principal components analysis (PCA) and multiple regression analysis. Two factors relevant to aggressive driving emerged: (a) driving violations and (b) irritability while driving. The multivariate model suggested that driving just for fun (joyriding) and irritability were predictors of young drivers' involvement in car crashes. It was found that younger age was negatively associated with young drivers' involvement in car crashes. IMPACT ON GOVERNMENT AND INDUSTRY: The findings of this study can contribute in the formation of public policies aiming to prevent young drivers' car crashes. These findings can also be the starting point of some health promotion interventions trying to reduce car crashes and casualties on the road. Finally, the insurance companies may be interested in applying these findings into their field of interest.     

Views of US drivers about driving safety

Problem: To assess how drivers view dangers on the highway, what motivates them to drive safely, how they say they reduce their crash and injury risk, and how they rate their own driving skills. Results: Most drivers rated their skills as better than average. The biggest motivating factor for safe driving was concern for safety of others in their vehicle, followed by negative outcomes such as being in a crash, increased insurance costs, and fines. The greatest threats to their safety were thought to be other drivers' actions that increase crash risk such as alcohol impairment or running red lights. In terms of reducing crashes and injuries, drivers tended to focus on actions they could take such as driving defensively or using seat belts. There was less recognition of the role of vehicles and vehicle features in crash or injury prevention. Impact on research, practice, and policy: Knowing how drivers view themselves and others, their concerns, and their motivations and techniques for staying out of trouble on the roads provides insight into the difficulty of changing driving practices.     

Understanding adolescent development: implications for driving safety

PROBLEM: The implementation of Graduated Driver Licensing (GDL) programs has significantly improved the crash and fatality rates of novice teen drivers, but these rates remain unacceptably high. METHOD: A review of adolescent development research was undertaken to identify potential areas of improvement. RESULTS: Research support for GDL was found to be strong, particularly regarding early acquisition of expertise in driving safety (beyond driving skill), and to limitations that reduce opportunities for distraction. GDL regimes are highly variable, and no US jurisdictions have implemented optimal regimes. SUMMARY: Expanding and improving GDL to enhance acquisition of expertise and self-regulation are indicated for implementation and for applied research. Driver training that effectively incorporates safety goals along with driving skill is another target. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: The insurance industry will benefit from further GDL enhancements. Benefits may accrue to improved driver training, improved simulation devices during training, and automated safety feedback instrumentation.     

Trends in teen driver licensure,driving patterns and crash involvement in the United States, 2006–2015

IntroductionThe Monitoring the Future (MTF) survey provides nationally-representative annual estimates of licensure and driving patterns among U.S. teens. A previous study using MTF data reported substantial declines in the proportion of high school seniors that were licensed to drive and increases in the proportion of nondrivers following the recent U.S. economic recession.MethodTo explore whether licensure and driving patterns among U.S. high school seniors have rebounded in the post-recession years, we analyzed MTF licensure and driving data for the decade of 2006–2015. We also examined trends in teen driver involvement in fatal and nonfatal injury crashes for that decade using data from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System and National Automotive Sampling System General Estimates System, respectively.ResultsDuring 2006–2015, the proportion of high school seniors that reported having a driver's license declined by 9 percentage points (11%) from 81% to 72% and the proportion that did not drive during an average week increased by 8 percentage points (44%) from 18% to 26%. The annual proportion of black seniors that did not drive was consistently greater than twice the proportion of nondriving white seniors. Overall during the decade, 17- and 18-year-old drivers experienced large declines in fatal and nonfatal injury crashes, although crashes increased in both 2014 and 2015.ConclusionsThe MTF data indicate that licensure and driving patterns among U.S. high school seniors have not rebounded since the economic recession. The recession had marked negative effects on teen employment opportunities, which likely influenced teen driving patterns. Possible explanations for the apparent discrepancies between the MTF data and the 2014 and 2015 increases in crashes are explored.Practical applicationsMTF will continue to be an important resource for clarifying teen driving trends in relation to crash trends and informing strategies to improve teen driver safety.     

Extending parental mentoring using an event-triggered video intervention in rural teen drivers

Teen drivers are at high risk for car crashes, especially during their first years of licensure. Providing novice teen drivers and their parents with a means of identifying their risky driving maneuvers may help them learn from their mistakes, thereby reducing their crash propensity. During the initial phase of learning, adult or parental supervision often provides such guidance. However, once teens obtain their license, adult supervision is no longer mandated, and teens are left to themselves to continue the learning process. This study is the first of its type to enhance this continued learning process using an event-triggered video device. By pairing this new technology with parental feedback in the form of a weekly video review and graphical report card, we extend parents' ability to teach their teens even after they begin driving independently. Twenty-six 16- to 17-year-old drivers were recruited from a small U.S. Midwestern rural high school. We equipped their vehicles with an event-triggered video device, designed to capture 20-sec clips of the forward and cabin views whenever the vehicle exceeded lateral or forward threshold accelerations. Preliminary findings suggest that combining this emerging technology with parental weekly review of safety-relevant incidents resulted in a significant decrease in events for the more at-risk teen drivers. Implications for how such an intervention could be implemented within GDL are also discussed.     

The effects of graduated driver licensing on hospitalization rates and charges for 16-and 17-year-olds in North Carolina

OBJECTIVE: To mitigate the high risk of motor vehicle crashes for young beginning drivers, over 40 states and the District of Columbia have implemented graduated driver licensing (GDL) systems that gradually and systematically ease teen drivers into higher risk driving conditions. Evaluations of GDL programs using motor vehicle crash data have demonstrated marked declines in crashes. The objective of this study is to examine the association between the implementation of the North Carolina GDL program and the rate of hospitalization, as well as hospital charges, for 16-and 17-year-old drivers. METHODS: Data were obtained from the North Carolina Hospital Discharge Database for the 26 months before and 46 months after the December 1, 1997, implementation of the GDL program. ARIMA interrupted time series analyses were used to model monthly hospitalization rates, controlling for the hospitalization rates of 25-to 54-year-old drivers. ARIMA analyses were also used to determine whether changes occurred in monthly total hospital charges. RESULTS: Among the 568 16-year-old hospitalized drivers, GDL was associated with a 36.5% decline in the hospitalization rate per population and a 31.2% decline in the total monthly driver hospitalization charges. Although a 12% reduction in the rate of hospitalizations was observed among the 615 17-year-old drivers, the analysis lacked sufficient power to be statistically reliable. No consistent change was observed in the 16-year-old driver total monthly hospital charges. CONCLUSIONS: The North Carolina GDL program was associated with a marked decline in the rate of hospitalizations and hospital charges for 16-year-old drivers. Following the implementation of GDL, over $650,000 in hospital charges have been averted each year for 16-year-old drivers. Analyses suggest these reductions were primarily the result of reduced exposure rather than an improvement in teen driving.     

Graduated driver licensing (GDL) in the United States in 2016: A literature review and commentary

This is the sixth in a series of reviews of research on graduated driver licensing (GDL) published in the Journal of Safety Research, the present review covering the period mid-2012 through 2016. In the two decades since GDL programs began to be introduced on a widespread basis in the United States, a vast amount of research has been published. The current review discusses recent research and the present state of knowledge on the following topics: characteristics of the novice driver population; effects of GDL on crashes for ages 16–19; the learner and intermediate periods; night and passenger restrictions; cellphone laws; GDL for older novices; enforcement of GDL rules; and programs attempting to influence GDL compliance and safe driving practices in general. GDL stands out as a successful policy for reducing teen driver crashes and is worth building on to extend its benefits. Strengthening existing GDL programs has the most potential for producing further crash reductions.     

Improving graduated driver licensing systems: a conceptual approach and its implications

Graduated driver licensing (GDL) is a concept for how to transform non-drivers into reasonably safe drivers while minimizing the risks as they learn. Several state GDL programs can be improved by moving their structures closer to an adequate implementation of that concept. The learner stage of a GDL system needs to be long enough for beginners to obtain a thorough introduction to the vagaries of driving. The second or intermediate stage needs to effectively limit exposure to known high risk conditions as novices adapt to being fully in charge of the vehicle. The benefits of GDL to date are due almost entirely to the risk-reducing conditions it implements. To improve the functioning of GDL will probably require a better understanding of teen driving than we presently have. The likelihood of further gains will be enhanced by efforts to learn more about the actual causes of teen crashes, the nature and type of teen driver exposures, and what parents do with their teens during the supervised driving stage of GDL. Without a better understanding of these, and other, phenomena it will be difficult to further reduce crashes among young beginning drivers, whether through GDL enhancements or with other approaches.     

A national evaluation of the nighttime and passenger restriction components of graduated driver licensing

Introduction

The high crash rate of youthful novice drivers has been recognized for half a century. Over the last decade, graduated driver licensing (GDL) systems, which extend the period of supervised driving and limit the novice's exposure to higher-risk conditions (such as nighttime driving), have effectively reduced crash involvements of novice drivers.

Method

This study used data from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) and the implementation dates of GDL laws in a state-by-year panel study to evaluate the effectiveness of two key elements of GDL laws: nighttime restrictions and passenger limitations.

Results

Nighttime restrictions were found to reduce 16- and 17-year-old driver involvements in nighttime fatal crashes by an estimated 10% and 16- and 17-year-old drinking drivers in nighttime fatal crashes by 13%. Passenger restrictions were found to reduce 16- and 17-year-old driver involvements in fatal crashes with teen passengers by an estimated 9%.

Conclusions

These results confirm the effectiveness of these provisions in GDL systems. Impact on Public Health. States without the nighttime or passenger restrictions in their GDL law should strongly consider adopting them.

Impact on Industry

The results of this study indicate that nighttime restrictions and passenger limitations are very important components of any GDL law.     

Antilock Brake Systems and Risk of Different Types of Crashes in Traffic

While antilock braking systems (ABS) have been convincingly demonstrated to enhance test track braking performance, their effect on crash risk in actual driving remains less clear. This paper examines how ABS influences crash risk using mainly two published studies which used police-reported crashes. The published findings are augmented by including new data and additional results. All the work is based on seven General Motors (GM) passenger vehicles having ABS as standard equipment for 1992 models but not available for 1991 models. The ratio of crashes under an adverse condition (say, when the pavement is wet) to under a normal condition (say, when the pavement is dry) is compared for ABS and non-ABS vehicles. After correcting for such factors as model year effects not linked to ABS, the following associations between ABS and crash risk were found by averaging data from the five states Texas, Missouri, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Indiana (the errors are one standard error): a (10 ± 3)% relative lower crash risk on wet roads compared to the corresponding comparison on dry roads; a (22 ± 11)% lower risk of a pedestrian crash compared to the risk of a non-pedestrian crash; a (39 ± 16)% increase in rollover crash risk compared to the risk of a non-rollover crash. Data from the same Ave states were used to examine two-vehicle rear-end collisions. Using the assumption that side-impact crashes estimate exposure, it was found that for wet roads ABS reduces the risk of crashing into a lead vehicle by (32 ± 8)%, but increases the risk of being struck in the rear by (30 ± 14)%. The results from this study and from all available reported studies are summarized in tabular form.     

Responsibility of drivers, by age and gender, for motor-vehicle crash deaths

Problem: Motor-vehicle crash rate comparisons by age and gender usually are based on the extent to which drivers in a particular age/gender category are themselves injured or involved in crashes (e.g., the number of 20-year-old females in crashes). Basing comparisons instead on the extent to which drivers in various age/gender groups are responsible for deaths (including themselves) in their crashes is more revealing of their overall contribution to the problem. Methods: Data from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS, 1996–2000) were used in the analysis, which was based on crashes that involved one or two vehicles only. Drivers in fatal single-vehicle crashes were assumed to have responsibility for the crash. In fatal two-vehicle crashes, driver operator errors reported by police were used to assign crash responsibility. Results: When all crashes were considered, both the youngest and oldest drivers were most likely to be responsible for deaths in their crashes. In two-vehicle crashes, the oldest drivers were more likely than young drivers to be responsible. Young males were more likely than young females to be responsible for crash deaths, whereas females in their 50s and older were more likely than same-age males to be responsible. In terms of responsibility for deaths per licensed driver, young drivers, especially males, had the highest rates because of their high involvement rates and high responsibility rates. The majority of deaths for which young drivers were responsible occurred to people other than themselves, especially passengers in their vehicles, whereas the bulk of the deaths for which older drivers were responsible were their own. Discussion: The results highlight the contribution of young drivers to the motor-vehicle crash problem, the need for measures such as passenger restrictions in graduated licensing systems, and the need for vehicle modifications to better protect older occupants.