Impacts of Roads, Hunting, and Habitat Alteration on Nocturnal Mammals in African Rainforests

Abstract:  Nocturnal mammals are poorly studied in Central Africa, a region experiencing dramatic increases in logging, roads, and hunting activity. In the rainforests of southern Gabon, we used spotlighting surveys to estimate abundances of nocturnal mammal species and guilds at varying distances from forest roads and between hunted and unhunted treatments (comparing a 130-km² oil concession that was nearly free of hunting, with nearby areas outside the concession that had moderate hunting pressure). At each of 12 study sites that were evenly divided between hunted and unhunted areas, we established standardized 1-km transects along road verges and at 50, 300, and 600 m from the road. We then repeatedly surveyed mammals at each site during 2006. Hunting had few apparent effects on this assemblage. Nevertheless, the species richness and often the abundance of nocturnal primates, smaller ungulates, and carnivores were significantly depressed within approximately 30 m of roads. Scansorial rodents increased in abundance in hunted forests, possibly in response to habitat changes caused by logging or nearby swidden farming. In multiple-regression models many species and guilds were significantly influenced by forest-canopy and understory cover, both of which are altered by logging and by certain abiotic variables. In general, nocturnal species, many of which are arboreal or relatively small in size (<10 kg), were less strongly influenced by hunting and more strongly affected by human-induced changes in forest structure than were larger mammal species in our study area.     

Effect of Hunting in Source-Sink Systems in the Neotropics

Abstract: Previous studies of the sustainability of wildlife hunting in the Neotropics have not considered the potential dispersal of animals into hunted areas. A literature review of studies of subsistence hunting in the Neotropics suggests that hunting is often conducted in areas adjacent to relatively undisturbed habitat that may act as sources of animals for the hunted sites. We compared studies of tapir (   Tapirus terrestris ) hunting at different sites to illustrate the potential bias of sustainability evaluations based on local productivity. The limited information available suggests that dispersal could have a key role in rebuilding animal populations depleted by hunting. Thus, factors that strongly affect dispersal—such as spatial distribution and size of areas with and without hunting, population size in source areas, and social behavior—should be considered when the sustainability of hunting is evaluated in areas with heterogeneous hunting pressure. We suggest the application of two models that use spatial controls (recognizing the potential source-sink nature of some hunted systems and protecting unhunted refugia) to avoid wildlife overexploitation when biological data and enforcement capabilities to regulate harvests are limited. This approach may produce more reliable evaluations of sustainability, provide information on the dynamics of hunting systems, and help local communities and policymakers conserve key areas (including protected areas) that may act as game sources.     

Modeling the impacts of hunting on the population dynamics of red howler monkeys (Alouatta seniculus)

Overexploitation of wildlife populations occurs across the humid tropics and is a significant threat to the long-term survival of large-bodied primates. To investigate the impacts of hunting on primates and ways to mitigate them, we developed a spatially explicit, individual-based model for a landscape that included hunted and un-hunted areas. We used the large-bodied neotropical red howler monkey (Alouatta seniculus) as our case study species because its life history characteristics make it vulnerable to hunting. We modeled the influence of different rates of harvest and proportions of landscape dedicated to un-hunted reserves on population persistence, population size, social dynamics, and hunting yields of red howler monkeys. In most scenarios, the un-hunted populations maintained a constant density regardless of hunting pressure elsewhere, and allowed the overall population to persist. Therefore, the overall population was quite resilient to extinction; only in scenarios without any un-hunted areas did the population go extinct. However, the total and hunted populations did experience large declines over 100 years under moderate and high hunting pressure. In addition, when reserve area decreased, population losses and losses per unit area increased disproportionately. Furthermore, hunting disrupted the social structure of troops. The number of male turnovers and infanticides increased in hunted populations, while birth rates decreased and exacerbated population losses due to hunting. Finally, our results indicated that when more than 55% of the landscape was harvested at high (30%) rates, hunting yields, as measured by kilograms of biomass, were less than those obtained from moderate harvest rates. Additionally, hunting yields, expressed as the number of individuals hunted/year/km², increased in proximity to un-hunted areas, and suggested that dispersal from un-hunted areas may have contributed to hunting sustainability. These results indicate that un-hunted areas serve to enhance hunting yields, population size, and population persistence in hunted landscapes. Therefore, spatial regulation of hunting via a reserve system may be an effective management strategy for sustainable hunting, and we recommend it because it may also be more feasible to implement than harvest quotas or restrictions on season length.     

Impacts of Roads and Hunting on Central African Rainforest Mammals

Abstract:  Road expansion and associated increases in hunting pressure are a rapidly growing threat to African tropical wildlife. In the rainforests of southern Gabon, we compared abundances of larger (>1 kg) mammal species at varying distances from forest roads and between hunted and unhunted treatments (comparing a 130-km² oil concession that was almost entirely protected from hunting with nearby areas outside the concession that had moderate hunting pressure). At each of 12 study sites that were evenly divided between hunted and unhunted areas, we established standardized 1-km transects at five distances (50, 300, 600, 900, and 1200 m) from an unpaved road, and then repeatedly surveyed mammals during the 2004 dry and wet seasons. Hunting had the greatest impact on duikers ( Cephalophus spp. ), forest buffalo ( Syncerus caffer nanus ), and red river hogs ( Potamochoerus porcus ), which declined in abundance outside the oil concession, and lesser effects on lowland gorillas ( Gorilla gorilla gorilla ) and carnivores. Roads depressed abundances of duikers, sitatungas ( Tragelaphus spekei gratus ), and forest elephants ( Loxondonta africana cyclotis ), with avoidance of roads being stronger outside than inside the concession. Five monkey species showed little response to roads or hunting, whereas some rodents and pangolins increased in abundance outside the concession, possibly in response to greater forest disturbance. Our findings suggest that even moderate hunting pressure can markedly alter the structure of mammal communities in central Africa. Roads had the greatest impacts on large and small ungulates, with the magnitude of road avoidance increasing with local hunting pressure.     

Effect of Small‐Scale Heterogeneity of Prey and Hunter Distributions on the Sustainability of Bushmeat Hunting

Abstract: Bushmeat is the main source of protein and the most important source of income for rural people in the Congo Basin, but intensive hunting of bushmeat species is also a major concern for conservationists. Although spatial heterogeneity in hunting effort and in prey populations at the landscape level plays a key role in the sustainability of hunted populations, the role of small‐scale heterogeneity within a village hunting territory in the sustainability of hunting has remained understudied. We built a spatially explicit multiagent model to capture the dynamics of a system in which hunters and preys interact within a village hunting territory. We examined the case of hunting of bay duikers (Cephalophus dorsalis) in the village of Ntsiété, northeastern Gabon. The impact of hunting on prey populations depended on the spatial heterogeneity of hunting and prey distribution at small scales within a hunting area. Within a village territory, the existence of areas hunted throughout the year, areas hunted only during certain seasons, and unhunted areas contributed to the sustainability of the system. Prey abundance and offtake per hunter were particularly sensitive to the frequency and length of hunting sessions and to the number of hunters sharing an area. Some biological parameters of the prey species, such as dispersal rate and territory size, determined their spatial distribution in a hunting area, which in turn influenced the sustainability of hunting. Detailed knowledge of species ecology and behavior, and of hunting practices are crucial to understanding the distribution of potential sinks and sources in space and time. Given the recognized failure of simple biological models to assess maximum sustainable yields, multiagent models provide an innovative path toward new approaches for the assessment of hunting sustainability, provided further research is conducted to increase knowledge of prey species’ and hunter behavior.     

Past,present, and future of a freshwater fish metapopulation in a threatened landscape

It is well documented that hydropower plants can affect the dynamics of fish populations through landscape alterations and the creation of new barriers. Less emphasis has been placed on the examination of the genetic consequences for fish populations of the construction of dams. The relatively few studies that focus on genetics often do not consider colonization history and even fewer tend to use this information for conservation purposes. As a case study, we used a 3‐pronged approach to study the influence of historical processes, contemporary landscape features, and potential future anthropogenic changes in landscape on the genetic diversity of a fish metapopulation. Our goal was to identify the metapopulation's main attributes, detect priority areas for conservation, and assess the consequences of the construction of hydropower plants for the persistence of the metapopulation. We used microsatellite markers and coalescent approaches to examine historical colonization processes, traditional population genetics, and simulations of future populations under alternate scenarios of population size reduction and gene flow. Historical gene flow appeared to have declined relatively recently and contemporary populations appeared highly susceptible to changes in landscape. Gene flow is critical for population persistence. We found that hydropower plants could lead to a rapid reduction in number of alleles and to population extirpation 50–80 years after their construction. More generally, our 3‐pronged approach for the analyses of empirical genetic data can provide policy makers with information on the potential impacts of landscape changes and thus lead to more robust conservation efforts.     

Modeling the Effects of Trophy Selection and Environmental Disturbance on a Simulated Population of African Lions

Abstract:  Tanzania is a premier destination for trophy hunting of African lions (Panthera leo) and is home to the most extensive long-term study of unhunted lions. Thus, it provides a unique opportunity to apply data from a long-term field study to a conservation dilemma: How can a trophy-hunted species whose reproductive success is closely tied to social stability be harvested sustainably? We used an individually based, spatially explicit, stochastic model, parameterized with nearly 40 years of behavioral and demographic data on lions in the Serengeti, to examine the separate effects of trophy selection and environmental disturbance on the viability of a simulated lion population in response to annual harvesting. Female population size was sensitive to the harvesting of young males (≥3 years), whereas hunting represented a relatively trivial threat to population viability when the harvest was restricted to mature males (≥6 years). Overall model performance was robust to environmental disturbance and to errors in age assessment based on nose coloration as an index used to age potential trophies. Introducing an environmental disturbance did not eliminate the capacity to maintain a viable breeding population when harvesting only older males, and initially depleted populations recovered within 15–25 years after the disturbance to levels comparable to hunted populations that did not experience a catastrophic event. These results are consistent with empirical observations of lion resilience to environmental stochasticity .     

Reproductive plasticity,oviposition site selection,and maternal effects in fragmented landscapes

Traditionally, evolutionary ecology and conservation biology have primarily been concerned with how environmental changes affect population size and genetic diversity. Recently, however, there has been a growing realization that phenotypic plasticity can have important consequences for the probability of population persistence, population growth, and evolution during rapid environmental change. Habitat fragmentation due to human activities is dramatically changing the ecological conditions of life for many organisms. In this review, we use examples from the literature to demonstrate that habitat fragmentation has important consequences on oviposition site selection in insects, with carryover effects on offspring survival and, therefore, population dynamics. We argue that plasticity in oviposition site selection and maternal effects on offspring phenotypes may be an important, yet underexplored, mechanism by which environmental conditions have consequences across generations. Without considering the impact of habitat fragmentation on oviposition site selection, it will be difficult to assess the effect of fragmentation on offspring fitness, and ultimately to understand the impact of anthropogenic-induced environmental change on population viability.     

Sink populations in carnivore management: cougar demography and immigration in a hunted population.

Carnivores are widely hunted for both sport and population control, especially where they conflict with human interests. It is widely believed that sport hunting is effective in reducing carnivore populations and related human-carnivore conflicts, while maintaining viable populations. However, the way in which carnivore populations respond to harvest can vary greatly depending on their social structure, reproductive strategies, and dispersal patterns. For example, hunted cougar (Puma concolor) populations have shown a great degree of resiliency. Although hunting cougars on a broad geographic scale (> 2000 km2) has reduced densities, hunting of smaller areas (i.e., game management units, < 1000 km2), could conceivably fail because of increased immigration from adjacent source areas. We monitored a heavily hunted population from 2001 to 2006 to test for the effects of hunting at a small scale (< 1000 km2) and to gauge whether population control was achieved (lambda < or = 1.0) or if hunting losses were negated by increased immigration allowing the population to remain stable or increase (lambda > or = 1.0). The observed growth rate of 1.00 was significantly higher than our predicted survival/fecundity growth rates (using a Leslie matrix) of 0.89 (deterministic) and 0.84 (stochastic), with the difference representing an 11-16% annual immigration rate. We observed no decline in density of the total population or the adult population, but a significant decrease in the average age of independent males. We found that the male component of the population was increasing (observed male population growth rate, lambda(OM) = 1.09), masking a decrease in the female component (lambda(OF) = 0.91). Our data support the compensatory immigration sink hypothesis; cougar removal in small game management areas (< 1000 km2) increased immigration and recruitment of younger animals from adjacent areas, resulting in little or no reduction in local cougar densities and a shift in population structure toward younger animals. Hunting in high-quality habitats may create an attractive sink, leading to misinterpretation of population trends and masking population declines in the sink and surrounding source areas.     

The Sustainability of Subsistence Hunting by Matsigenka Native Communities in Manu National Park, Peru

Abstract:  The presence of indigenous people in tropical parks has fueled a debate over whether people in parks are conservation allies or direct threats to biodiversity. A well-known example is the Matsigenka (or Machiguenga) population residing in Manu National Park in Peruvian Amazonia. Because the exploitation of wild meat (or bushmeat), especially large vertebrates, represents the most significant internal threat to biodiversity in Manu, we analyzed 1 year of participatory monitoring of game offtake in two Matsigenka native communities within Manu Park (102,397 consumer days and 2,089 prey items). We used the Robinson and Redford (1991) index to identify five prey species hunted at or above maximum sustainable yield within the ∼150-km² core hunting zones of the two communities: woolly monkey (Lagothrix lagotricha), spider monkey (Ateles chamek), white-lipped peccary (Tayassu pecari), Razor-billed Currasow (Mitu tuberosa), and Spix's Guan (Penelope jacquacu). There was little or no evidence that any of these five species has become depleted, other than locally, despite a near doubling of the human population since 1988. Hunter–prey profiles have not changed since 1988, and there has been little change in per capita consumption rates or mean prey weights. The current offtake by the Matsigenka appears to be sustainable, apparently due to source–sink dynamics. Source–sink dynamics imply that even with continued human population growth within a settlement, offtake for each hunted species will eventually reach an asymptote. Thus, stabilizing the Matsigenka population around existing settlements should be a primary policy goal for Manu Park.     

Assessment of sustainability performance on the utilization of Agave (Agave salmiana ssp crassispina) in Zacatecas,Mexico

Agave is a native plant utilized for mezcal and tequila production. Since 1997, Agave exploitation has been increasing, leading to possible ecological deterioration and without social and economic benefits for the rural population. A sustainability index was developed for 1990–2001, including social, economic and ecological indicators related to Agave exploitation at Zacatecas, Mexico. Increases in the rural population have had a negative effect on Agave sustainability, directly affecting the ecological component of sustainability. Increased Agave exploitation has not improved the socio-economic components and has negatively affected the ecological indicators. All these factors resulted in a low (= 0.6) sustainability index. A lack of appropriate management may have led to the exploitation of native plants, leading to ecological deterioration of the local plant populations, without contributing to socio-economic improvement for the human population. The model using the sustainability index may also be validated for other species within this region.     

Effects of Tourists on Behavior and Demography of Olympic Marmots

Abstract:  If changes in animal behavior resulting from direct human disturbance negatively affect the persistence of a given species or population, then these behavioral changes must necessarily lead to reduced demographic performance. We tested for the effects of human disturbance on Olympic marmots ( Marmota olympus ), a large ground-dwelling squirrel that has disappeared from several areas where recreation levels are high. We assessed the degree to which antipredator and foraging behavior and demographic rates (survival and reproduction) differed between sites with high recreation levels (high use) and those with little or no recreation (low use). Compared with the marmots at low-use sites, marmots at high-use sites displayed significantly reduced responses to human approach, which could be construed as successful accommodation of disturbance or as a decrease in predator awareness. The marmots at high-use sites also looked up more often while foraging, which suggests an increased wariness. Marmots at both types of sites had comparable reproductive and survival rates and were in similar body condition. Until now, the supposition that marmots can adjust their behavior to avoid negative demographic consequences when confronted with heavy tourism has been based on potentially ambiguous behavioral data. Our results support this hypothesis in the case of Olympic marmots and demonstrate the importance of considering demographic data when evaluating the impacts of recreation on animal populations.     

Light, sediment, temperature, and the early life-history of the habitat-forming alga Cystoseira barbata

Recruitment is essential for the maintenance of populations, but far more is typically known about the more easily-observed adult stages than their smaller, often microscopic early life-history counterparts. This discrepancy can be particularly problematic for populations of foundation species that create biogenic habitat for a multitude of other taxa, but are themselves prime candidates for exploitation, fragmentation, and loss, and therefore become the focus of restoration efforts partly or fully dependent on recruitment. The purpose of this study was to improve ecological understanding for early life-history stages of the habitat-forming marine alga Cystoseira barbata (Stackhouse) C. Agardh (Fucales: Sargassaceae), member of a genus that has experienced considerable fragmentation and population decline on European coasts. Using experimental manipulations of water temperature, light intensity, and sediment accumulation, we observed that sediment virtually precluded recruitment of C. barbata, and greatly impacted the survival of recently settled germlings (up to ~83% mortality). Stronger intensities of light facilitated the growth of germlings, including the capacity for ~50% of them to outgrow detrimental sediment and survive. Temperature (10 vs. 16°C) had no effect on early recruitment, survival, or growth. This information helps to identify likely causes and locations of recruitment failure, and by extension, the conditions needed (either naturally or through human intervention) to facilitate recruitment and possible habitat restoration. Ultimately, this knowledge can increase our capacity to predict population persistence and the likely success of restoration efforts.     

Effects of Agricultural, Industrial, and Recreational Expansion on Frequency of Wildlife Law Violations in the Central Rocky Mountains, USA

Abstract: As human populations expand into previously unoccupied habitats, conflicts with wild vertebrate species are inevitable. On the basis of literature concerning human attitudes toward nature, we hypothesized that the intensity of conflicts and impacts would vary with the type of land use expansion. We tested our hypothesis by examining data on socioeconomic profiles of discrete expanding human populations in relation to the frequency of wildlife law violations in the central Rocky Mountains of the United States. We estimated possible human-related effects by comparing rates of wildlife law violations among populations varying in growth rates and socioeconomic status over an eleven-year period 1969–1980. We found that agrarian-based population centers had fewer violations per capita than areas with industrial-based (petroleum development) boom towns. Recreation-oriented (ski) boom towns had the lowest number of violations during periods of the most rapid growth. While the relationship between wildlife law violations and actual impact on animal population sizes remains unknown, our findings underscore the necessity of a priori recognition and planning by government and private agencies to combat potential harmful effects when expanding human population centers are likely to be characterized by immigrants with a low regard for wild species.     

Role of Patch Size, Disease, and Movement in Rapid Extinction of Bighorn Sheep

Abstract: The controversy (  Berger 1990, 1999 ; Wehausen 1999 ) over rapid extinction in bighorn sheep ( Ovis canadensis ) has focused on population size alone as a correlate to persistence time. We report on the persistence and population performance of 24 translocated populations of bighorn sheep. Persistence in these sheep was strongly correlated with larger patch sizes, greater distance to domestic sheep, higher population growth rates, and migratory movements, as well as to larger population sizes. Persistence was also positively correlated with larger average home-range size ( p = 0.058, n = 10 translocated populations) and home-range size of rams ( p = 0.087, n = 8 translocated populations). Greater home-range size and dispersal rates of bighorn sheep were positively correlated to larger patches. We conclude that patch size and thus habitat carrying capacity, not population size per se, is the primary correlate to both population performance and persistence. Because habitat carrying capacity defines the upper limit to population size, clearly the amount of suitable habitat in a patch is ultimately linked to population size. Larger populations (250+ animals) were more likely to recover rapidly to their pre-epizootic survey number following an epizootic ( p = 0.019), although the proportion of the population dying in the epizootic also influenced the probability of recovery ( p = 0.001). Expensive management efforts to restore or increase bighorn sheep populations should focus on large habitat patches located ≥23 km from domestic sheep, and less effort should be expended on populations in isolated, small patches of habitat.     

Exploring the effects of reductions in krill biomass in the Southern Ocean on blue whales using a state-dependent foraging model

Many species of baleen whales were hunted to near extinction in the Southern Hemisphere. The recovery of these populations will be affected by the availability of krill, a major dietary component, in the Southern Ocean. We combine a novel energetics model for baleen whales with a state dependent foraging model to explore the impacts of an expanding krill fishery on baleen whales. We parameterize the model for blue whales, but with simple modifications it could be applied to most baleen whales. We predict that an expanding fishery will have a small but significant impact on the blue whale population through decreased birth rates. However, spreading the catch limit throughout the range of krill can reduce these effects. In addition, whales may be able to reduce these impacts through adaptive changes in foraging behavior. The relationship between krill abundance and blue whale foraging and reproductive success is nonlinear, such that larger reductions in krill biomass, potentially following a loss of sea ice due to climate change, could have a much larger negative impact on the recovery of blue whales.     

Convergent development of ecological,genetic, and morphological traits in native supercolonies of the red ant Myrmica rubra

Ant supercolonies (large networks of interconnected nests) represent the most extreme form of multi-queen breeding (polygyny) and have been found across ant lineages, usually in specific long-term stable populations. Many studies on the genetic population structure and demography of ant supercolonies have been done in recent decades, but they have lacked multicolonial control patches with separated colonies headed by a single or few queens so the origin of the supercolonial trait syndrome has remained enigmatic. Here, we set out to compare sympatric supercolonial and multicolonial patches in two natural Danish populations of the common red ant Myrmica rubra. We used DNA microsatellites to reconstruct genetic colony/population structure and obtained morphological and density measurements to estimate life history and ecology covariates. We found that supercolonies in both populations completely dominated their patches whereas colonies in multicolonial patches coexisted with other ant species. Supercolony patches had very low genetic differentiation between nests, negligible relatedness within nests, and lower inbreeding than multicolonial patches, but there were no significant morphological differences. One population also had nests that approached true outbred monogyny with larger workers and males but smaller queens than in the two other social nest types. Our results suggest that once smaller colonies start to adopt additional queens, they also gain the potential to ultimately become supercolonial when the habitat allows rapid expansion through nest budding. This is relevant for understanding obligate polygyny in ants and for appreciating how and why introduced North American populations of M. rubra have recently become invasive.     

Modeling the spatio-temporal dynamics and interactions of households,landscapes, and giant panda habitat

Human modification of land-cover has been a leading cause of floral and faunal species extirpation and loss of local and global biodiversity. As natural areas are impacted, habitat and populations can become fragmented and isolated. This is particularly evident in the mountainous areas of southwestern China that support the remaining populations of giant pandas (Ailuropoda melanoleuca). Giant panda populations have been restricted to remnants of habitat from extensive past land use and land-cover change. Households are a basic socio-economic unit that continues to impact the remaining habitat through activities such as fuelwood consumption and new household creation. Therefore, we developed a spatio-temporal model of human activities and their impacts by directly integrating households into the landscape. The integrated model allows us to examine the landscape factors influencing the spatial distribution of household activities and household impacts on habitat. As an example application, we modeled household activities in a giant panda reserve in China and examined the spatio-temporal dynamics of households, the landscape, and their mutual interactions. Human impacts are projected to result in the loss of up to 16% of all existing habitat within the reserve over the next 30 years. In addition, we found that accessibility largely controls the spatial distribution of household activities and considerable changes in management and household activities will be required to maintain the current level of habitat within the reserve.     

Introduction,dispersal and potential impacts of the green crab Carcinus maenas in San Francisco Bay,California

The North Atlantic portunid crab Carcinus maenas (Linnaeus, 1758) has invaded the North Pacific Ocean following more than two centuries of global dispersal due to human activities. C. maenas was first collected in San Francisco Bay, California, in 1989–1990, where its distribution and prey selectivity were investigated in 1992–1994. It has become abundant in shallow, warm lagoons (which as favorable and retentive microhabitats may have served as invasion incubators) and spread throughout the north, central and south bays. It may have arrived in ballast water, on fouled ships, amongst algae with imported live bait or lobsters, or by intentional release; genetic comparisons of the Bay population with possible source populations may aid in defining the transport mechanism. C. maenas' eurytopic nature, its high breeding potential, and its diet and feeding behavior suggest the potential for extensive ecosystem alterations through predator-prey interactions, competition, disturbance, and indirect effects. Although both negative economic impacts through reduction or disruption of fisheries and positive impacts of providing bait and human-food fisheries have been documented in a few regions, the potential economic impacts in San Francisco Bay remain largely unknown.     

Effects of flow regimes altered by dams on survival, population declines, and range-wide losses of California river-breeding frogs

Widespread alteration of natural hydrologic patterns by large dams combined with peak demands for power and water delivery during summer months have resulted in frequent aseasonal flow pulses in rivers of western North America. Native species in these ecosystems have evolved with predictable annual flood-drought cycles; thus, their likelihood of persistence may decrease in response to disruption of the seasonal synchrony between stable low-flow conditions and reproduction. We evaluated whether altered flow regimes affected 2 native frogs in California and Oregon (U.S.A.) at 4 spatial and temporal extents. We examined changes in species distribution over approximately 50 years, current population density in 11 regulated and 16 unregulated rivers, temporal trends in abundance among populations occupying rivers with different hydrologic histories, and within-year patterns of survival relative to seasonal hydrology. The foothill yellow-legged frog (Rana boylii), which breeds only in flowing water, is more likely to be absent downstream of large dams than in free-flowing rivers, and breeding populations are on average 5 times smaller in regulated rivers than in unregulated rivers. Time series data (range = 8 - 19 years) from 5 populations of yellow-legged frogs and 2 populations of California red-legged frogs (R. draytonii) across a gradient of natural to highly artificial timing and magnitude of flooding indicate that variability of flows in spring and summer is strongly correlated with high mortality of early life stages and subsequent decreases in densities of adult females. Flow management that better mimics natural flow timing is likely to promote persistence of these species and others with similar phenology.