Boosted Regression Tree Models to Explain Watershed Nutrient Concentrations and Biological Condition

Boosted regression tree (BRT) models were developed to quantify the nonlinear relationships between landscape variables and nutrient concentrations in a mesoscale mixed land cover watershed during base‐flow conditions. Factors that affect instream biological components, based on the Index of Biotic Integrity (IBI), were also analyzed. Seasonal BRT models at two spatial scales (watershed and riparian buffered area [RBA]) for nitrite‐nitrate (NO₂‐NO₃), total Kjeldahl nitrogen, and total phosphorus (TP) and annual models for the IBI score were developed. Two primary factors — location within the watershed (i.e., geographic position, stream order, and distance to a downstream confluence) and percentage of urban land cover (both scales) — emerged as important predictor variables. Latitude and longitude interacted with other factors to explain the variability in summer NO₂‐NO₃ concentrations and IBI scores. BRT results also suggested that location might be associated with indicators of sources (e.g., land cover), runoff potential (e.g., soil and topographic factors), and processes not easily represented by spatial data indicators. Runoff indicators (e.g., Hydrological Soil Group D and Topographic Wetness Indices) explained a substantial portion of the variability in nutrient concentrations as did point sources for TP in the summer months. The results from our BRT approach can help prioritize areas for nutrient management in mixed‐use and heavily impacted watersheds.     

STREAM HEALTH RANKINGS PREDICTED BY SATELLITE DERIVED LAND COVER METRICS1

ABSTRACT: Land cover and land use change have long been known to influence the chemical, physical, and biological characteristics of streams. This study makes use of land cover maps derived from fine resolution satellite imagery and an extensive stream quality dataset to determine the relationship between small watershed health rankings and land cover composition and configuration. Landscape metrics were derived from digital impervious surface area (ISA), tree cover (percent), and agricultural crop maps within Montgomery County, Maryland. Watershed rankings were developed by state and county collaborators (MD‐DNR and MCDEP) using extensive biological and chemical measurements. In stepwise logistic regression models the factors accounting for the most variation in stream health ranking were the percent ISA, followed by the percent of tree cover. Riparian buffer zone tree cover was also a significant predictor. Of the metrics that considered the spatial configuration of the landscape, a contagion index and the percent of ISA in the flow path from the ISA to the stream were also found to be significant predictors of stream health. Despite limited ability to characterize landscape configuration or narrow riparian buffer zone vegetation with coarser resolution imagery (from Landsat), model results were not significantly different from those based on the use of fine‐resolution ISA information, suggesting that broader area applications of the approach are possible. The results indicate that management practices designed to improve stream water quality should focus on the amount of ISA and tree cover in both the watershed and within the buffer zone.     

AUTUMN CHEMISTRY OF OREGON COAST RANGE STREAMS1

ABSTRACT: During an autumn runoff event we sampled 48 streams with predominantly forested watersheds and igneous bedrock in the Oregon Coast Range. The streams had acid neutralizing capacities (ANC) > 90 μeq/L and pH > 6.4. Streamwater Na ⁺, Ca^{2 +}, and Mg^{2 +} concentrations were greater than K ⁺ concentrations. Anion concentrations generally followed the order of Cl^- > NO₃^- > SO₄^2-. Chloride and Na ⁺ concentrations were highest in samples collected in streams near the Pacific Ocean and decreased markedly as distance from the coast increased. Sea salt exerted no discernible influence on stream water acid-base status during the sampling period. Nitrate concentrations in the study streams were remarkably variable, ranging from below detection to 172 μeq/L. We hypothesize that forest vegetation is the primary control of spatial variability of the NO₃^- concentrations in Oregon Coast Range streams. We believe that symbiotic N fixation by red alder in pure or mixed stands is the primary source of N to forested watersheds in the Oregon Coast Range.     

Summer Temperature Patterns in Headwater Streams of the Oregon Coast Range1

Abstract: Cool summertime stream temperature is an important component of high quality aquatic habitat in Oregon coastal streams. Within the Oregon Coast Range, small headwater streams make up a majority of the stream network; yet, little information is available on temperature patterns and the longitudinal variability for these streams. In this paper we describe preharvest spatial and temporal patterns in summer stream temperature for small streams of the Oregon Coast Range in forests managed for timber production. We also explore relationships between stream and riparian attributes and observed stream temperature conditions and patterns. Summer stream temperature, channel, and riparian data were collected on 36 headwater streams in 2002, 2003, and 2004. Mean stream temperatures were consistent among summers and generally warmed in a downstream direction. However, longitudinal trends in maximum temperatures were more variable. At the reach scale of 0.5‐1.7 km, maximum temperatures increased in 17 streams, decreased in seven streams and did not change in three reaches. At the subreach scale (0.1‐1.5 km), maximum temperatures increased in 28 subreaches, decreased in 14, and did not change in 12 subreaches. Models of increasing temperature in a downstream direction may oversimplify fine‐scale patterns in small streams. Stream and riparian attributes that correlated with observed temperature patterns included cover, channel substrate, channel gradient, instream wood jam volume, riparian stand density, and geology type. Longitudinal patterns of stream temperature are an important consideration for background characterization of water quality. Studies attempting to evaluate stream temperature response to timber harvest or other modifications should quantify variability in longitudinal patterns of stream temperature prior to logging.     

Impact of an Invasive Exotic Species on Stream Nitrogen Levels in Southern Illinois1

Abstract: Autumn‐olive (Elaeagnus umbellata Thunb.) is an invasive, exotic shrub that has become naturalized in the eastern United States. Autumn‐olive fixes nitrogen (N) via a symbiotic relationship with the actinomycete Frankia. At the plot scale, the presence of autumn‐olive has been related to elevated soil water nitrate‐N (NO₃^?‐N) concentrations. This study examined the relationship between autumn‐olive cover in a watershed and stream water quality. Stream water nitrate‐N (NO₃^?‐N) and ammonium‐N (NH₄⁺‐N) concentrations were measured in 12 first order ephemeral streams draining watersheds with mixed forest cover and a range of 0‐35% autumn‐olive cover. Percent autumn‐olive cover was positively correlated with mean stream NO₃^?‐N concentrations, but was not correlated with mean stream NH₄⁺‐N concentrations. While other studies have demonstrated a significant relationship between native N‐fixers and stream NO₃^?‐N, this is the first study to document a relationship for an invasive, exotic N‐fixing species. Results suggest that this exotic species can be an additional source of NO₃^? in local and regional water bodies and demonstrates an additional negative ecosystem consequence of invasion beyond losses in biodiversity.     

Headwater Influences on Downstream Water Quality

We investigated the influence of riparian and whole watershed land use as a function of stream size on surface water chemistry and assessed regional variation in these relationships. Sixty-eight watersheds in four level III U.S. EPA ecoregions in eastern Kansas were selected as study sites. Riparian land cover and watershed land use were quantified for the entire watershed, and by Strahler order. Multiple regression analyses using riparian land cover classifications as independent variables explained among-site variation in water chemistry parameters, particularly total nitrogen (41%), nitrate (61%), and total phosphorus (63%) concentrations. Whole watershed land use explained slightly less variance, but riparian and whole watershed land use were so tightly correlated that it was difficult to separate their effects. Water chemistry parameters sampled in downstream reaches were most closely correlated with riparian land cover adjacent to the smallest (first-order) streams of watersheds or land use in the entire watershed, with riparian zones immediately upstream of sampling sites offering less explanatory power as stream size increased. Interestingly, headwater effects were evident even at times when these small streams were unlikely to be flowing. Relationships were similar among ecoregions, indicating that land use characteristics were most responsible for water quality variation among watersheds. These findings suggest that nonpoint pollution control strategies should consider the influence of small upland streams and protection of downstream riparian zones alone is not sufficient to protect water quality.     

Nitrogen Subsidies from Hillslope Alder Stands to Streamside Wetlands and Headwater Streams,Kenai Peninsula,Alaska

We examined nitrogen transport and wetland primary production along hydrologic flow paths that link nitrogen‐fixing alder (Alnus spp.) stands to downslope wetlands and streams in the Kenai Lowlands, Alaska. We expected that nitrate concentrations in surface water and groundwater would be higher on flow paths below alder. We further expected that nitrate concentrations would be higher in surface water and groundwater at the base of short flow paths with alder and that streamside wetlands at the base of alder‐near flow paths would be less nitrogen limited than wetlands at the base of long flow paths with alder. Our results showed that groundwater nitrate‐N concentrations were significantly higher at alder‐near sites than at no‐alder sites, but did not differ significantly between alder‐far sites and no‐alder sites or between alder‐far sites and alder‐near sites. A survey of ¹⁵N stable isotope signatures in soils and foliage in alder‐near and no‐alder flow paths indicated the alder‐derived nitrogen evident in soils below alder is quickly integrated downslope. Additionally, there was a significant difference in the relative increase in plant biomass after nitrogen fertilization, with the greatest increase occurring in the no‐alder sites. This study demonstrates that streamside wetlands and streams are connected to the surrounding landscapes through hydrologic flow paths, and flow paths with alder stands are potential “hot spots” for nitrogen subsidies at the hillslope scale.     

Controls on Nutrients Across a Prairie Stream Watershed: Land Use and Riparian Cover Effects

Nutrient inputs generally are increased by human-induced land use changes and can lead to eutrophication and impairment of surface waters. Understanding the scale at which land use influences nutrient loading is necessary for the development of management practices and policies that improve water quality. The authors assessed the relationships between land use and stream nutrients in a prairie watershed dominated by intermittent stream flow in the first-order higher elevation reaches. Total nitrogen, nitrate, and phosphorus concentrations were greater in tributaries occupying the lower portions of the watershed, closely mirroring the increased density of row crop agriculture from headwaters to lower-elevation alluvial areas. Land cover classified at three spatial scales in each sub-basin above sampling sites (riparian in the entire catchment, catchment land cover, and riparian across the 2 km upstream) was highly correlated with variation in both total nitrogen (r² = 53%, 52%, and 49%, respectively) and nitrate (r² = 69%, 65%, and 56%, respectively) concentrations among sites. However, phosphorus concentrations were not significantly associated with riparian or catchment land cover classes at any spatial scale. Separating land use from riparian cover in the entire watershed was difficult, but riparian cover was most closely correlated with in-stream nutrient concentrations. By controlling for land cover, a significant correlation of riparian cover for the 2 km above the sampling site with in-stream nutrient concentrations could be established. Surprisingly, land use in the entire watershed, including small intermittent streams, had a large influence on average downstream water quality although the headwater streams were not flowing for a substantial portion of the year. This suggests that nutrient criteria may not be met only by managing permanently flowing streams.     

EFFECTS OF LAND COVER AND GEOLOGY ON STREAM CHEMISTRY IN WATERSHEDS OF CHESAPEAKE BAY1

ABSTRACT: We measured the base‐flow stream chemistry in all the major physiographic provinces of the Chesapeake Bay drainage basin. The spatial variation of stream chemistry was closely related to differences in geology and land cover among the sampled watersheds. Some stream chemistry variables were strongly affected by geological settings in the watersheds while others were more influenced by land cover. The effects of land cover differed among chemical constituents and regions. Concentrations of Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺, pH, total alkalinity, and conductivity were mainly functions of carbonate bedrock, especially in the Great Valley. Nitrate‐N and total dissolved N were closely related to cropland and increased as the percentage of cropland increased. The rate of increase varied from region to region with the highest in the Piedmont. Na⁺ and Cl^? were mainly affected by the percentage of developed area in a watershed, especially in the Coastal Plain and Piedmont. We observed no significant effects of region or land cover on species of phosphorus because samples were collected under base flow conditions and only dissolved forms were measured. Dissolved silicate (DSi) was not related to any other water chemistry variables. DSi increased as developed area decreased and cropland increased in the Coastal Plain, but these patterns were reversed in the Piedmont. There was no consistent pattern in the spatial variation of land cover effects on the reduced forms of N, dissolved organic P, dissolved organic matter, and K⁺.     

Monitoring Forest Carbon Sequestration with Remote Sensing and Carbon Cycle Modeling

Sources and sinks of carbon associated with forests depend strongly on the management regime and spatial patterns in potential productivity. Satellite remote sensing can provide spatially explicit information on land cover, stand-age class, and harvesting. Carbon-cycle process models coupled to regional climate databases can provide information on potential rates of production and related rates of decomposition. The integration of remote sensing and modeling thus produces spatially explicit information on carbon storage and flux. This integrated approach was employed to compare carbon flux for the period 1992–1997 over two 165-km² areas in western Oregon. The Coast Range study area was predominately private land managed for timber production, whereas the West Cascades study area was predominantly public land that was less productive but experienced little harvesting in the 1990s. In the Coast Range area, 17% of the land base was harvested between 1991 and 2000. Much of the area was in relatively young, productive-age classes that simulations indicate are a carbon sink. Mean annual harvest removals from the Coast Range were greater than mean annual net ecosystem production. On the West Cascades study area, a relatively small proportion (< 1%) of the land was harvested and the area as a whole was accumulating carbon. The spatially and temporally explicit nature of this approach permits identification of mechanisms underlying land base carbon flux. Published online     

WALNUT CREEK WATERSHED MONITORING PROJECT,IOWA MONITORING WATER QUALITY IN RESPONSE TO PRAIRIE RESTORATION1

ABSTRACT: Land use and surface water data for nitrogen and pesticides (1995 to 1997) are reported for the Walnut Creek Watershed Monitoring Project, Jasper County Iowa. The Walnut Creek project was established in 1995 as a nonpoint source monitoring program in relation to watershed habitat restoration and agricultural management changes implemented at the Neal Smith National Wildlife Refuge by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. The monitoring project utilizes a paired‐watershed approach (Walnut and Squaw creeks) as well as upstream/downstream comparisons on Walnut for analysis and tracking of trends. From 1992 to 1997, 13.4 percent of the watershed was converted from row crop to native prairie in the Walnut Creek watershed. Including another 6 percent of watershed farmed on a cash‐rent basis, land use changes have been implemented on 19.4 percent of the watershed by the USFWS. Nitrogen and pesticide applications were reduced an estimated 18 percent and 28 percent in the watershed from land use changes. Atrazine was detected most often in surface water with frequencies of detection ranging from 76–86 percent. No significant differences were noted in atrazine concentrations between Walnut and Squaw Creek. Nitrate‐N concentrations measured in both watersheds were similar; both basins showed a similar pattern of detection and an overall reduction in nitrate‐N concentrations from upstream to downstream monitoring sites. Water quality improvements are suggested by nitrate‐N and chloride ratios less than one in the Walnut Creek watershed and low nitrate‐N concentrations measured in the subbasin of Walnut Creek containing the greatest amount of land use changes. Atrazine and nitrate‐N concentrations from the lower portion of the Walnut Creek watershed (including the prairie restoration area) may be decreasing in relation to the upstream untreated component of the watershed. The frequencies of pesticide detections and mean nitrate‐N concentrations appear related to the percentage of row crop in the basins and subbasins. Although some results are encouraging, definitive water quality improvements have not been observed during the first three years of monitoring. Possible reasons include: (1) more time is needed to adequately detect changes; (2) the size of the watershed is too large to detect improvements; (3) land use changes are not located in the area of the watershed where they would have greatest effect; or (4) water quality improvements have occurred but have been missed by the project monitoring design. Longer‐term monitoring will allow better evaluation of the impact of restoration activities on water quality.     

Estimation of Nonpoint Source Nitrate Concentrations in Indiana Rivers Based on Agricultural Drainage in the Watershed

Subsurface tile‐drained agricultural fields are known to be important contributors to nitrate in surface water in the Midwest, but the effect of these fields on nitrate at the watershed scale is difficult to quantify. Data for 25 watersheds monitored by the Indiana Department of Environmental Management and located near a U.S. Geological Survey stream gage were used to investigate the relationship between flow‐weighted mean concentration (FWMC) of nitrate‐N and the subsurface tile‐drained area (DA) of the watershed. The tile DA was estimated from soil drainage class, land use, and slope. Nitrate loads from point sources were estimated based on reported flows of major permitted facilities with mean nitrate‐N concentrations from published sources. Linear regression models exhibited a statistically significant relationship between annual/monthly nonpoint source (NPS) nitrate‐N and DA percentage. The annual model explained 71% of the variation in FWMC of nitrate‐N. The annual and monthly models were tested in 10 additional watersheds, most with absolute errors within 1 mg/l in the predicted FWMC. These models can be used to estimate NPS nitrate for unmonitored watersheds in similar areas, especially for drained agricultural areas where model performance was strongest, and to predict the nitrate reduction when various tile drainage management techniques are employed.     

Using Regression Tree Analysis to Improve Predictions of Low-Flow Nitrate and Chloride in Willamette River Basin Watersheds

The use of regression tree analysis is examined as a tool to evaluate hydrologic and land use factors that affect nitrate and chloride stream concentrations during low-flow conditions. Although this data mining technique has been used to assess a range of ecological parameters, it has not previously been used for stream water quality analysis. Regression tree analysis was conducted on nitrate and chloride data from 71 watersheds in the Willamette River Basin to determine whether this method provides a greater predictive ability compared to standard multiple linear regression, and to elucidate the potential roles of controlling mechanisms. Metrics used in the models included a variety of watershed-scale landscape indices and land use classifications. Regression tree analysis significantly enhanced model accuracy over multiple linear regression, increasing nitrate R ² values from 0.38 to 0.75 and chloride R ² values from 0.64 to 0.85 and as indicated by the ΔAIC value. These improvements are primarily attributed to the ability for regression trees to more effectively handle interactions and manage non-linear functions associated with watershed heterogeneity within the basin. Whereas hydrologic factors governed the conservative chloride tracer in the model, land use dominated control of nitrate concentrations. Watersheds containing higher agricultural activity did not necessarily yield high nitrate concentrations, but agricultural areas combined with either small proportions of forested land or greater urbanization generated nitrate levels far exceeding water quality standards. Although further refinements are recommended, we conclude that regression tree analysis presents water resource managers a promising tool that improves on the predictive ability of standard statistical methods, provides insight into controlling mechanisms, and helps identify catchment characteristics associated with water quality impairment.     

Spatial Variability of Nitrate Concentrations Under Diverse Conditions in Tributaries to a Lake Watershed1

Abstract: Nitrate‐nitrogen (NO₃‐N) concentrations in stream water often respond uniquely to changes in inter‐annual conditions (e.g., biological N uptake and precipitation) in individual catchments. In this paper, we assess (1) how the spatial distribution of NO₃‐N concentrations varies across a dense network of nonnested catchments and (2) how relationships between multiple landscape factors [within whole catchments and hydrologically sensitive areas (HSAs) of the catchments] and stream NO₃‐N are expressed under a variety of annual conditions. Stream NO₃‐N data were collected during two synoptic sampling events across >55 tributaries and two synoptic sampling periods with >11 tributaries during summer low flow periods. Sample tributaries drain mixed land cover watersheds ranging in size from 0.150 to 312 km² and outlet directly to Cayuga Lake, New York. Changes in NO₃‐N concentration ratios between each sampling event suggest a high degree of spatial heterogeneity in catchment response across the Cayuga Lake Watershed, ranging from 0.230 to 61.4. Variations in NO₃‐N concentrations within each of the large synoptic sampling events were also high, ranging from 0.040 to 8.7 mg NO₃‐N/l (March) and 0.090 to 15.5 mg NO₃‐N/l (October). Although Pearson correlation coefficients suggest that this variability is related to multiple landscape factors during all four sampling events, partial correlations suggest percentage of row crops in the catchments as the only similar factor in March and October and catchment area as the only factor during summer low flows. Further, the strength of the relationships is typically lower in the HSAs of catchment. Advancing current understanding of such variations and relationships to landscape factors across multiple catchments – and under a variety of biogeochemical and hydrological conditions – is important, as (1) nitrate continues to be employed as an indicator of regional aquatic ecosystem health and services and (2) a unified framework approach for understanding individual catchment processes is a rapidly evolving focus for catchment‐based science and management.     

Multi-scale analysis of oxygen demand trends in an urbanizing Oregon watershed, USA

Human alteration of the landscape has an extensive influence on the biogeochemical processes that drive oxygen cycling in streams. We estimated trends from the mid-1990s to 2003, using the seasonal Mann-Kendall's test, for percent saturation dissolved oxygen (DO), chemical oxygen demand (COD), total Kjeldahl nitrogen (TKN), and ammonia-nitrogen (NH(3)-N) for 12 sites in the Rock Creek watershed, northwest Oregon, USA. In order to understand the influence of landscape change, scale, and stormwater runoff management on dissolved oxygen trends, we calculated land cover change through aerial photo interpretation at full-basin, local (near sample point) basin, and 100m stream buffer scales, for the years 1994 and 2000. Significant (p < or = 0.05) trends occurred in DO (increasing at five sites), COD (decreasing at seven sites), TKN (decreasing at five sites, increasing at one site), and NH(3)-N (decreasing at one site, increasing at one site). Significant land cover change occurred in agricultural land cover (-8% for the entire basin area) and residential land cover (+10% for the entire basin area) (p < or = 0.05). Correlation results indicated that: (1) forest cover negatively influenced COD at the full basin scale and positively influences NH(3)-N at local scales, (2) residential land cover influenced oxygen demand variables at local scales, (3) agricultural land cover did not influence oxygen demand, (4) local topography negatively influenced TKN and NH(3)-N, and (5) stormwater runoff management infrastructure correlated positively with COD at the local scale. This study indicates that landscape factors influencing DO conditions for the study streams act at multiple scales, suggesting that better knowledge of scale-process interactions can guide watershed managers' decision making in order to maintain improving water quality conditions.     

NEAR‐STREAM LANDUSE EFFECTS ON STREAMWATER NUTRIENT DISTRIBUTION IN AN URBANIZING WATERSHED1

ABSTRACT: We investigated spatial and temporal relationships among surface and subsurface watershed attributes and stream nutrient concentrations in urbanizing Johnson Creek watershed in northern Oregon. We sampled stream water at eight urban and five nonurban locations from March 1998 through December 1999. We sampled eight wells distributed over the two primary aquifers in the watershed. Using a Geographic Information System (GIS), percentages of landuse attributes within a radius of 30, 91, and 152 m from each sample site were quantified. We analyzed relationships between (1) nutrient concentrations and percentage cover of different landuse attributes, and (2) nutrient concentrations and underlying hydrologic units. We did not find a significant relationship between ground water chemistry and stream water chemistry. We found elevated levels of phosphorus (P) concentrations correlated with urban landuse, while higher nitrogen (N) concentrations were correlated with nonurban (primarily agricultural) landuse. We concluded that elevated levels of N in nonurban areas of Johnson Creek watershed were associated with agricultural practices. We further concluded that urban development factors such as increases in storm drains, dry wells, and impermeable surfaces may be responsible for higher input of P to the stream in urbanizing areas of the Johnson Creek watershed.     

Baseflow nitrate in relation to stream order and agricultural land use

Management of agricultural nonpoint-source pollution continues to be a challenge because of spatial and temporal variability. Using stream order as an index, we explored the distribution of nitrate concentration and load along the stream network of a large agricultural watershed in Pennsylvania-the East Mahantango Creek Watershed and two of its sub-watersheds. To understand nitrate concentration variation in the stream water contributed from ground water, this study focused on baseflow. Impacts of agricultural land use area on baseflow nitrate in the stream network were investigated. Nitrate concentration showed a general decreasing trend with increasing stream order based on stream order averaged values; however, considerable spatial and temporal variability existed within each snapshot sampling. Nitrate loads increased with stream order in a power function because of the dominant effect of stream flow rate over the nitrate concentration. Within delineated sub-watersheds based on stream orders, positive linear functions were found between agricultural land use area percentage and the baseflow nitrate concentration and between agricultural drainage area and the nitrate load. The slope of the positive linear regression between the baseflow nitrate concentration and percent agricultural land area seems to be a valuable indicator of a watershed's water quality as influenced by agricultural practices, watershed size, and specific physiographic setting. Stream order seems to integrate, to a certain degree, the source and transport aspects of nonpoint-source pollution on a yearly averaged basis and thus might provide a quick estimate of the overall trend in baseflow nitrate concentration and load distribution along complex stream networks in agricultural watersheds.     

Evaluating Microbial Indicators of Environmental Condition in Oregon Rivers

Traditional bacterial indicators used in public health to assess water quality and the Biolog system were evaluated to compare their response to biological, chemical, and physical habitat indicators of stream condition both within the state of Oregon and among ecoregion aggregates (Coast Range, Willamette Valley, Cascades, and eastern Oregon). Forty-three randomly selected Oregon river sites were sampled during the summer in 1997 and 1998. The public health indicators included heterotrophic plate counts (HPC), total coliforms (TC), fecal coliforms (FC) and Escherichia coli (EC). Statewide, HPC correlated strongly with physical habitat (elevation, riparian complexity, % canopy presence, and indices of agriculture, pavement, road, pasture, and total disturbance) and chemistry (pH, dissolved O2, specific conductance, acid-neutralizing capacity, dissolved organic carbon, total N, total P, SiO2, and SO4). FC and EC were significantly correlated generally with the river chemistry indicators. TC bacteria significantly correlated with riparian complexity, road disturbance, dissolved O2, and SiO2 and FC. Analyzing the sites by ecoregion, eastern Oregon was characterized by high HPC, FC, EC, nutrient loads, and indices of human disturbance, whereas the Cascades ecoregion had correspondingly low counts of these indicators. The Coast Range and Willamette Valley presented inconsistent indicator patterns that are more difficult to characterize. Attempts to distinguish between ecoregions with the Biolog system were not successful, nor did a statistical pattern emerge between the first five principle components and the other environmental indicators. Our research suggests that some traditional public health microbial indicators may be useful in measuring the environmental condition of lotic systems.     

MODELING THE DISTRIBUTION OF DIFFUSE NITROGEN SOURCES AND SINKS IN THE NEUSE RIVER BASIN OF NORTH CAROLINA,USA1

This study quantified nonpoint source nitrogen (NPS‐N) sources and sinks across the 14,582 km² Neuse River Basin (NRB) located in North Carolina, to provide tabular data summaries and graphic overlay products to support the development of management approaches to best achieve established N reduction goals. First, a remote sensor derived, land cover classification was performed to support modeling needs. Modeling efforts included the development of a mass balance model to quantify potential N sources and sinks, followed by a precipitation event driven hydrologic model to effectively transport excess N across the landscape to individual stream reaches to support subsequent labeling of transported N values corresponding to source origin. Results indicated that agricultural land contributed 55 percent of the total annual NPS‐N loadings, followed by forested land at 23 percent (background), and urban areas at 21 percent. Average annual N source contributions were quantified for agricultural (1.4 kg/ha), urban (1.2 kg/ha), and forested cover types (0.5 kg/ha). Nonpoint source‐N contributions were greatest during the winter (40 percent), followed by spring (32 percent), summer (28 percent), and fall (0.3 percent). Seasonal total N loadings shifted from urban dominated and forest dominated sources during the winter, to agricultural sources in the spring and summer. A quantitative assessment of the significant NRB land use activities indicated that high (greater than 70 percent impervious) and medium (greater than 35 percent impervious) density urban development were the greatest contributors of NPS‐N on a unit area basis (1.9 and 1.6 kg/ha/yr, respectively), followed by row crops and pasture/hay cover types (1.4 kg/ha/yr).     

Water Quality Signals from Rural Land Use and Exurbanization in a Mountain Landscape: What's Clear and What's Confounded?

In mountainous landscapes with high climatic and geomorphic variability, how do rural land uses and exurbanization alter hydrology and water quality? We evaluated effects of rural land use and exurbanization on streamflows, suspended sediment concentrations and loads, specific conductance, and summer water temperatures in 12 streams and rivers within the Upper Little Tennessee River basin in the southern Appalachian Mountains. Eleven streams featured low levels of development (>61% forest cover) but differed in land use patterning, basin size, annual precipitation, and watershed morphology. One urban stream, located within the largest town in the basin, provided the high development comparative endpoint. Even low levels of rural development and exurbanization were associated with substantial increases in suspended sediment concentrations, sediment loads, and summer stream temperature daily maxima and diurnal variation. Observed summer temperature increases were much larger than would be expected due to global climate change over the next century. Specific conductance was idiosyncratic among the smaller streams. These water quality changes were not accompanied by streamflow changes that were discernible amid the high natural variation in precipitation and geomorphology. The water quality findings suggest the need for applying the best management practices, including riparian buffers, to even low levels of rural development.