Use of observed hydroclimatic trends to constrain projections of snowmelt season runoff in the Rio Grande headwaters

A method is developed for choosing 21st Century streamflow projections among widely varying results from a large ensemble of climate model-driven simulations. We quantify observed trends in climate–streamflow relationships in the Rio Grande headwaters, which has experienced warming temperature and declining snowpack since the mid-20th Century. Prominent trends in the snowmelt runoff season are used to assess corresponding statistics in downscaled global climate model projections. We define “Observationally Consistent (OC)” simulations as those that reproduce historical changes to linear statistics of diminished snowpack–streamflow coupling in the headwaters and an associated increase in the contribution of spring season (post-peak snowpack) precipitation to streamflow. Only a modest fraction of the ensemble of simulations meets these consistency metrics. The subset of OC simulations projects significant decreases in headwaters flow, whereas the simulations that poorly replicate historical trends exhibit a much wider range of projected changes. These results bolster confidence in model-based projections of declining runoff in the Rio Grande headwaters in the snowmelt runoff season and offer an example of a methodology for evaluating model-based projections in basins with similar hydroclimates that have experienced pronounced climate changes in the recent historical record.     

Trends in Western U.S. Snowpack and Related Upper Colorado River Basin Streamflow1

Miller, W. Paul and Thomas C. Piechota, 2011. Trends in Western U.S. Snowpack and Related Upper Colorado River Basin Streamflow. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(6):1197–1210. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00565.x Abstract: Water resource managers in the Western United States (U.S.) are currently faced with the challenge of adapting to unprecedented drought and uncertain impacts of climate change. Recent research has indicated increasing regional temperature and changes to precipitation and streamflow characteristics throughout the Western U.S. As such, there is increased uncertainty in hydroclimatological forecasts, which impact reservoir operations and water availability throughout the Western U.S., particularly in the Colorado River Basin. Previous research by the authors hypothesized a change in the character of precipitation (i.e., the frequency and amount of rainfall and snowfall events) throughout the Colorado River Basin. In the current study, 398 snowpack telemetry stations were investigated for trends in cumulative precipitation, snow water equivalent, and precipitation events. Observations of snow water equivalent characteristics were compared to observations in streamflow characteristics. Results indicate that the timing of the last day of the snow season corresponds well to the volume of runoff observed over the traditional peak flow season (April through July); conversely, the timing of the first day of the snow season does not correspond well to the volume of runoff observed over the peak flow season. This is significant to water resource managers and river forecasters, as snowpack characteristics may be indicative of a productive or unproductive runoff season.     

VARIATIONS IN NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA STREAMFLOW: IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE1

ABSTRACT: Historical records of streamflow for an eastward- and a westward-draining stream in the northern Sierra Nevada have been analyzed for evidence of changes in runoff characteristics and patterns of variability. A trend of increasing and more variable winter streamflow began in the mid-1960s. Mean monthly streaniflow during December through March was substantially greater for water years 1965–1990 compared to water years 1939–1964. Increased winter and early-spring streamflow during the later period is attributed to small increases in temperature, which increase the rain-to-snow ratio at lower altitudes and cause the snowpack to melt earlier in the season at higher altitudes. The timing of snowmelt runoff on the western slope of the Sierra Nevada is more sensitive than it is on the eastern slope to changes in temperature, owing to predominantly lower altitudes on the west side. This difference in sensitivity suggests that basins on the east side of the Sierra Nevada have a more reliable water supply (as snow storage) than western-slope basins during warming trends.     

Effect of Snow Cover Conditions on the Hydrologic Regime: Case Study in a Pluvial‐Nival Watershed,Japan1

Abstract: Hydrologic monitoring in a small forested and mountainous headwater basin in Niigata Prefecture has been undertaken since 2000. An important characteristic of the basin is that the hydrologic regime contains pluvial elements year‐round, including rain‐on‐snow, in addition to spring snowmelt. We evaluated the effect of different snow cover conditions on the hydrologic regime by analyzing observed data in conjunction with model simulations of the snowpack. A degree‐day snow model is presented and applied to the study basin to enable estimation of the basin average snow water equivalent using air temperature at three representative elevations. Analysis of hydrological time series data and master recession curves showed that flow during the snowmelt season was generated by a combination of ground water flow having a recession constant of 0.018/day and diurnal melt water flow having a recession constant of 0.015/hour. Daily flows during the winter/snowmelt season showed greater persistence than daily flows during the warm season. The seasonal water balance indicated that the ratio of runoff to precipitation during the cold season (December to May) was about 90% every year. Seasonal snowpack plays an important role in defining the hydrologic regime, with winter precipitation and snowmelt runoff contributing about 65% of the annual runoff. The timing of the snowmelt season, indicated by the date of occurrence of the first significant snowmelt event, was correlated with the occurrence of low flow events. Model simulations showed that basin average snow water equivalent reached a peak around mid‐February to mid‐March, although further validation of the model is required at high elevation sites.     

Hydrologic Calibration and Validation of SWAT in a Snow‐Dominated Rocky Mountain Watershed,Montana, U.S.A.1

Abstract: The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) has been applied successfully in temperate environments but little is known about its performance in the snow‐dominated, forested, mountainous watersheds that provide much of the water supply in western North America. To address this knowledge gap, we configured SWAT to simulate the streamflow of Tenderfoot Creek (TCSWAT). Located in central Montana, TCSWAT represents a high‐elevation watershed with ～85% coniferous forest cover where more than 70% of the annual precipitation falls as snow, and runoff comes primarily from spring snowmelt. Model calibration using four years of measured daily streamflow, temperature, and precipitation data resulted in a relative error (RE) of 2% for annual water yield estimates, and mean paired deviations (Dv) of 36 and 31% and Nash‐Sutcliffe (NS) efficiencies of 0.90 and 0.86 for monthly and daily streamflow, respectively. Model validation was conducted using an additional four years of data and the performance was similar to the calibration period, with RE of 4% for annual water yields, Dv of 43% and 32%, and NS efficiencies of 0.90 and 0.76 for monthly and daily streamflow, respectively. An objective, regression‐based model invalidation procedure also indicated that the model was validated for the overall simulation period. Seasonally, SWAT performed well during the spring and early summer snowmelt runoff period, but was a poor predictor of late summer and winter base flow. The calibrated model was most sensitive to snowmelt parameters, followed in decreasing order of influence by the surface runoff lag, ground water, soil, and SCS Curve Number parameter sets. Model sensitivity to the surface runoff lag parameter reflected the influence of frozen soils on runoff processes. Results indicated that SWAT can provide reasonable predictions of annual, monthly, and daily streamflow from forested montane watersheds, but further model refinements could improve representation of snowmelt runoff processes and performance during the base flow period in this environment.     

Drivers of future streamflow changes in watersheds across the Northeastern United States

Accurate projections of streamflow, which have implications for flooding, water resources, hydropower, and ecosystems, are critical to climate change adaptation and require an understanding of streamflow sensitivity to climate drivers. The northeastern United States has experienced a dramatic increase in extreme precipitation over the past 25 years; however, the effects of these changes, as well as changes in other drivers of streamflow, remain unclear. Here, we use a random forest model forced with a regional climate model to examine historical and future streamflow dynamics of four watersheds across the Northeast. We find that streamflow in the cold season (November–May) is primarily driven by 3-day rainfall and antecedent wetness (Antecedent Precipitation Index) in three rainfall-dominant watersheds, and 30-day rainfall, antecedent wetness, and 30-day snowmelt in the fourth, more snowmelt-dominated watershed. In the warm season (June–October), streamflow is driven by antecedent wetness and rainfall in all watersheds. By the end of the century (2070–2099), cold season streamflow depends on the importance placed on snow in the machine learning model, with changes ranging from −7% (with snow) to +40% (without snow) in a single watershed. Simulated future warm season streamflow increases in two watersheds (56% and 193%) due to increased precipitation and antecedent soil wetness, but decreases in the other two watersheds (−6% and −27%) due to reduced precipitation.     

Streamflow Response to Climate as Influenced by Geology and Elevation1

Mayer, Timothy D. and Seth W. Naman, 2011. Streamflow Response to Climate as Influenced by Geology and Elevation. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(4):724‐738. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00537.x Abstract: This study examines the regional streamflow response in 25 predominately unregulated basins to warmer winter temperatures and snowpack reductions over the last half century in the Klamath Basin of California and Oregon. Geologic controls of streamflow in the region result in two general stream types: surface‐dominated and groundwater‐dominated basins. Surface‐dominated basins were further differentiated into rain basins and snowmelt basins on the basis of elevation and timing of winter runoff. Streamflow characteristics and response to climate vary with stream type, as discussed in the study. Warmer winter temperatures and snowpack reductions have caused significantly earlier runoff peaks in both snowmelt and groundwater basins in the region. In the groundwater basins, the streamflow response to changes in snowpack is smoothed and delayed and the effects are extended longer in the summer. Our results indicate that absolute decreases in July‐September base flows are significantly greater, by an order of magnitude, in groundwater basins compared to surface‐dominated basins. The declines are important because groundwater basins sustain Upper Klamath Lake inflows and mainstem river flows during the typically dry summers of the area. Upper Klamath Lake April‐September net inflows have decreased an estimated 16% or 84 thousand acre‐feet (103.6 Mm³) since 1961, with the summer months showing proportionately more decline. These changes will exacerbate water supply problems for agriculture and natural resources in the region.     

GENERAL-CIRCULATION-MODEL SIMULATIONS OF FUTURE SNOWPACK IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES1

ABSTRACT: April 1 snowpack accumulations measured at 311 snow courses in the western United States (U.S.) are grouped using a correlation-based cluster analysis. A conceptual snow accumulation and melt model and monthly temperature and precipitation for each cluster are used to estimate cluster-average April 1 snowpack. The conceptual snow model is subsequently used to estimate future snowpack by using changes in monthly temperature and precipitation simulated by the Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis (CCC) and the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research (HADLEY) general circulation models (GCMs). Results for the CCC model indicate that although winter precipitation is estimated to increase in the future, increases in temperatures will result in large decreases in April 1 snowpack for the entire western U.S. Results for the HADLEY model also indicate large decreases in April 1 snowpack for most of the western US, but the decreases are not as severe as those estimated using the CCC simulations. Although snowpack conditions are estimated to decrease for most areas of the western US, both GCMs estimate a general increase in winter precipitation toward the latter half of the next century. Thus, water quantity may be increased in the western US; however, the timing of runoff will be altered because precipitation will more frequently occur as rain rather than as snow.     

FOREST GROWTH IMPACT ON PEAK SNOW PACK MEASUREMENTS AT LONG TERM SNOW COURSES1

ABSTRACT: Snow course surveys in late winter provide stream‐flow forecasters with their best information for making water supply and flood forecasts for the subsequent spring and summer runoff period in mountainous regions of western North America. Snow survey data analyses are generally based on a 30‐year “normal” period. It is well documented that forest cover changes over time will affect snow accumulation on the ground within forests. This paper seeks to determine if forest cover changes over decades at long term snow courses decrease measured peak snow water equivalent (SWE) enough to affect runoff prediction. Annual peak SWE records were analyzed at four snow courses in two different forest types having at least 25 years of snowpack data to detect any decreases in SWE due to forest growth. No statistically significant decreases in annual peak SWE over time were found at any of these four snow courses. The wide range of annual winter precipitation and correspondingly highly variable peak snowpack accumulation, as well as many other weather and site variables, masked any minor trends in the data.     

Long‐Term Trends in Streamflow and Precipitation in Northwest California and Southwest Oregon, 1953‐2012

Using nonparametric Mann‐Kendall tests, we assessed long‐term (1953‐2012) trends in streamflow and precipitation in Northern California and Southern Oregon at 26 sites regulated by dams and 41 “unregulated” sites. Few (9%) sites had significant decreasing trends in annual precipitation, but September precipitation declined at 70% of sites. Site characteristics such as runoff type (groundwater, snow, or rain) and dam regulation influenced streamflow trends. Decreasing streamflow trends outnumbered increasing trends for most months except at regulated sites for May‐September. Summer (July‐September) streamflow declined at many sites, including 73% of unregulated sites in September. Applying a LOESS regression model of antecedent precipitation vs. average monthly streamflow, we evaluated the underlying streamflow trend caused by factors other than precipitation. Decreasing trends in precipitation‐adjusted streamflow substantially outnumbered increasing trends for most months. As with streamflow, groundwater‐dominated sites had a greater percent of declining trends in precipitation‐adjusted streamflow than other runoff types. The most pristine surface‐runoff‐dominated watersheds within the study area showed no decreases in precipitation‐adjusted streamflow during the summer months. These results suggest that streamflow decreases at other sites were likely due to more increased human withdrawals and vegetation changes than to climate factors other than precipitation quantity.     

POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON CALIFORNIA HYDROLOGY1

ABSTRACT: Previous reports based on climate change scenarios have suggested that California will be subjected to increased wintertime and decreased summertime streamflow. Due to the uncertainty of projections in future climate, a new range of potential climatological future temperature shifts and precipitation ratios is applied to the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting Model and Anderson Snow Model in order to determine hydrologic sensitivities. Two general circulation models (GCMs) were used in this analysis: one that is warm and wet (HadCM2 run 1) and one that is cool and dry (PCM run B06.06), relative to the GCM projections for California that were part of the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. A set of specified incremental temperature shifts from 1.5°C to 5.0°C and precipitation ratios from 0.70 to 1.30 were also used as input to the snow and soil moisture accounting models, providing for additional scenarios (e.g., warm/dry, cool/wet). Hydrologic calculations were performed for a set of California river basins that extend from the coastal mountains and Sierra Nevada northern region to the southern Sierra Nevada region; these were applied to a water allocation analysis in a companion paper. Results indicate that for all snow‐producing cases, a larger proportion of the streamflow volume will occur earlier in the year. The amount and timing is dependent on the characteristics of each basin, particularly the elevation. Increased temperatures lead to a higher freezing line, therefore less snow accumulation and increased melting below the freezing height. The hydrologic response varies for each scenario, and the resulting solution set provides bounds to the range of possible change in streamflow, snowmelt, snow water equivalent, and the change in the magnitude of annual high flows. An important result that appears for all snowmelt driven runoff basins, is that late winter snow accumulation decreases by 50 percent toward the end of this century.     

Streamflow Responses to Climate Change: Analysis of Hydrologic Indicators in a New York City Water Supply Watershed

Recent works have indicated that climate change in the northeastern United States is already being observed in the form of shorter winters, higher annual average air temperature, and more frequent extreme heat and precipitation events. These changes could have profound effects on aquatic ecosystems, and the implications of such changes are less understood. The objective of this study was to examine how future changes in precipitation and temperature translate into changes in streamflow using a physically based semidistributed model, and subsequently how changes in streamflow could potentially impact stream ecology. Streamflow parameters were examined in a New York City water supply watershed for changes from model‐simulated baseline conditions to future climate scenarios (2081‐2100) for ecologically relevant factors of streamflow using the Indicators of Hydrologic Alterations tool. Results indicate that earlier snowmelt and reduced snowpack advance the timing and increase the magnitude of discharge in the winter and early spring (November‐March) and greatly decrease monthly streamflow later in the spring in April. Both the rise and fall rates of the hydrograph will increase resulting in increased flashiness and flow reversals primarily due to increased pulses during winter seasons. These shifts in timing of peak flows, changes in seasonal flow regimes, and changes in the magnitudes of low flow can all influence aquatic organisms and have the potential to impact stream ecology.     

EFFECT OF SIMULATED CLIMATE CHANGE ON SNOWMELT RUNOFF MODELING IN SELECTED BASINS1

ABSTRACT: The projected increase in the concentration of CO₂ and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is likely to result in a global temperature increase. This paper reports on the probable effects of a temperature increase and changes in transpiration on basin discharge in two different mountain snowmelt regions of the western United States. The hydrological effects of the climate changes are modeled with a relatively simple conceptual, semi-distributed snowmelt runoff model. Based on the model results, it may be concluded that increased air temperatures will result in a shift of snowmelt runoff to earlier in the snowmelt season. Furthermore, it is shown that it is very important to include the expected change in climate-related basin conditions resulting from the modeled temperature increase in the runoff simulation. The effect of adapting the model parameters to reflect the changed basin conditions resulted in a further shift of streamflow to April and an even more significant decrease of snowmelt runoff in June and July. If the air temperatures increase by approximately 5°C and precipitation and accumulated snow amounts remain about the same, runoff in April and May, averaged for the two basins, is expected to increase by 185 percent and 26 percent, respectively. The runoff in June and July will decrease by about 60 percent each month. Overall, the total seasonal runoff decreases by about 6 percent. If increased CO₂ concentrations further change basin conditions by reducing transpiration by the maximum amounts reported in the literature, then, combined with the 5°C temperature increase, the April, May, June, and July changes would average +230 percent, +40 percent, ?55 percent, and ?45 percent, respectively. The total seasonal runoff change would be +11 percent.     

EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON HYDROLOGY AND WATER RESOURCES IN THE COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: As part of the National Assessment of Climate Change, the implications of future climate predictions derived from four global climate models (GCMs) were used to evaluate possible future changes to Pacific Northwest climate, the surface water response of the Columbia River basin, and the ability of the Columbia River reservoir system to meet regional water resources objectives. Two representative GCM simulations from the Hadley Centre (HC) and Max Planck Institute (MPI) were selected from a group of GCM simulations made available via the National Assessment for climate change. From these simulations, quasi-stationary, decadal mean temperature and precipitation changes were used to perturb historical records of precipitation and temperature data to create inferred conditions for 2025, 2045, and 2095. These perturbed records, which represent future climate in the experiments, were used to drive a macro-scale hydrology model of the Columbia River at 1/8 degree resolution. The altered streamflows simulated for each scenario were, in turn, used to drive a reservoir model, from which the ability of the system to meet water resources objectives was determined relative to a simulated hydrologic base case (current climate). Although the two GCM simulations showed somewhat different seasonal patterns for temperature change, in general the simulations show reasonably consistent basin average increases in temperature of about 1.8–2.1°C for 2025, and about 2.3–2.9°C for 2045. The HC simulations predict an annual average temperature increase of about 4.5°C for 2095. Changes in basin averaged winter precipitation range from -1 percent to + 20 percent for the HC and MPI scenarios, and summer precipitation is also variously affected. These changes in climate result in significant increases in winter runoff volumes due to increased winter precipitation and warmer winter temperatures, with resulting reductions in snowpack. Average March 1 basin average snow water equivalents are 75 to 85 percent of the base case for 2025, and 55 to 65 percent of the base case by 2045. By 2045 the reduced snowpack and earlier snow melt, coupled with higher evapotranspiration in early summer, would lead to earlier spring peak flows and reduced runoff volumes from April-September ranging from about 75 percent to 90 percent of the base case. Annual runoff volumes range from 85 percent to 110 percent of the base case in the simulations for 2045. These changes in streamflow create increased competition for water during the spring, summer, and early fall between non-firm energy production, irrigation, instream flow, and recreation. Flood control effectiveness is moderately reduced for most of the scenarios examined, and desirable navigation conditions on the Snake are generally enhanced or unchanged. Current levels of winter-dominated firm energy production are only significantly impacted for the MPI 2045 simulations.     

Snowmelt Runoff and Water Yield Along Elevation and Temperature Gradients in California’s Southern Sierra Nevada1

Hunsaker, Carolyn T., Thomas W. Whitaker, and Roger C. Bales, 2012. Snowmelt Runoff and Water Yield Along Elevation and Temperature Gradients in California’s Southern Sierra Nevada. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(4): 667‐678. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2012.00641.x Abstract: Differences in hydrologic response across the rain‐snow transition in the southern Sierra Nevada were studied in eight headwater catchments – the Kings River Experimental Watersheds – using continuous precipitation, snowpack, and streamflow measurements. The annual runoff ratio (discharge divided by precipitation) increased about 0.1 per 300 m of mean catchment elevation over the range 1,800‐2,400 m. Higher‐elevation catchments have lower vegetation density, shallow soils with rapid permeability, and a shorter growing season when compared with those at lower elevations. Average annual temperatures ranged from 6.8°C at 2,400 m to 8.6 at 1,950 m elevation, with annual precipitation being 75‐95% snow at the highest elevations vs. 20‐50% at the lowest. Peak discharge lagged peak snow accumulation on the order of 60 days at the higher elevations and 20 to 30 days at the lower elevations. Snowmelt dominated the daily streamflow cycle over a period of about 30 days in higher elevation catchments, followed by a 15‐day transition to evapotranspiration dominating the daily streamflow cycle. Discharge from lower elevation catchments was rainfall dominated in spring, with the transition to evapotranspiration dominance being less distinct. Climate warming that results in a longer growing season and a shift from snow to rain would result in earlier runoff and a lower runoff ratio.     

Projections of 21st Century Sierra Nevada Local Hydrologic Flow Components Using an Ensemble of General Circulation Models1

Abstract: Sierra Nevada snowmelt and runoff is a key source of water for many of California’s 38 million residents and nearly the entire population of western Nevada. The purpose of this study was to assess the impacts of expected 21st Century climatic changes in the Sierra Nevada at the subwatershed scale, for all hydrologic flow components, and for a suite of 16 General Circulation Models (GCMs) with two emission scenarios. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was calibrated and validated at 35 unimpaired streamflow sites. Results show that temperatures are projected to increase throughout the Sierra Nevada, whereas precipitation projections vary between GCMs. These climatic changes drive a decrease in average annual streamflow and an advance of snowmelt and runoff by several weeks. The largest streamflow reductions were found in the mid‐range elevations due to less snow accumulation, whereas the higher elevation watersheds were more resilient due to colder temperatures. Simulation results showed that decreases in snowmelt affects not only streamflow, but evapotranspiration, surface, and subsurface flows, such that less water is available in spring and summer, thus potentially affecting aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. Declining spring and summer flows did not equally affect all subwatersheds in the region, and the subwatershed perspective allowed for identification for the most sensitive basins throughout the Sierra Nevada.     

Characterizing Runoff and Water Yield for Headwater Catchments in the Southern Sierra Nevada

In a Mediterranean climate where much of the precipitation falls during winter, snowpacks serve as the primary source of dry season runoff. Increased warming has led to significant changes in hydrology of the western United States. An important question in this context is how to best manage forested catchments for water and other ecosystem services? Answering this basic question requires detailed understanding of hydrologic functioning of these catchments. Here, we depict the differences in hydrologic response of 10 catchments. Size of the study catchments ranges from 50 to 475 ha, and they span between 1,782 and 2,373 m elevation in the rain‐snow transitional zone. Mean annual streamflow ranged from 281 to 408 mm in the low elevation Providence and 436 to 656 mm in the high elevation Bull catchments, resulting in a 49 mm streamflow increase per 100 m (R² = 0.79) elevation gain, despite similar precipitation across the 10 catchments. Although high elevation Bull catchments received significantly more precipitation as snow and thus experienced a delayed melt, this increase in streamflow with elevation was mainly due to a reduction in evapotranspiration (ET) with elevation (45 mm/100 m, R² = 0.65). The reduction in ET was attributed to decline in vegetation density, growing season, and atmospheric demand with increasing elevation. These findings suggest changes in streamflow in response to climate warming may likely depend on how vegetation responds to those changes in climate.     

Management Implications of Snowpack Sensitivity to Temperature and Atmospheric Moisture Changes in Yosemite National Park,CA

In order to investigate snowpack sensitivity to temperature increases and end‐member atmospheric moisture conditions, we applied a well‐constrained energy‐ and mass‐balance snow model across the full elevation range of seasonal snowpack using forcing data from recent wet and dry years. Humidity scenarios examined were constant relative humidity (high) and constant vapor pressure between storms (low). With minimum calibration, model results captured the observed magnitude and timing of snowmelt. April 1 snow water equivalent (SWE) losses of 38%, 73%, and 90% with temperature increases of 2, 4, and 6°C in a dry year centered on areas of greatest SWE accumulation. Each 2°C increment of warming also resulted in seasonal snowline moving upslope by 300 m. The zone of maximum melt was compressed upward 100–500 m with 6°C warming, with the range reflecting differences in basin hypsometry. Melt contribution by elevations below 2,000 m disappeared with 4°C warming. The constant‐relative‐humidity scenario resulted in 0–100 mm less snowpack in late spring vs. the constant‐vapor‐pressure scenario in a wet year, a difference driven by increased thermal radiation (+1.2 W/m²) and turbulent energy fluxes (+1.2 W/m²) to the snowpack for the constant‐relative‐humidity case. Loss of snowpack storage and potential increases in forest evapotranspiration due to warming will result in a substantial shift in forest water balance and present major challenges to land management in this mountainous region.     

DEVELOPMENT AND TESTING OF A SNOWMELT-RUNOFF FORECASTING TECHNIQUE1

ABSTRACT: The snowmelt-runoff model (SRM) was used to produce accurate simulations of streamfiow during the snowmelt period (April-September) for ten years on the Rio Grande Basin (3419 km²) near Del Norte, Colorado, U.S.A. In order to use SRM in the forecast situation, it was necessary to develop a family of snow cover depletion curves for each elevation zone based on accumulated snow water equivalent on April 1. Selection of an appropriate curve for a particular year from snow course measurements allows input of the daily snow cover extent to SRM for forecast purposes. Data from three years (1980, 1981, and 1985) were used as a quasi-forecast test of the procedure. In these years forecasted snow cover extent data were input to SRM, but observed temperature and precipitation data were used. The resulting six-month hydrographs were very similar to the hydrographs in the ten simulation years previously tested based on comparisons of performance evaluation criteria. Based on this result, the Soil Conservation Service (SCS) requested SRM forecasts for 1987 on the Rio Grande. Using the same procedure but with SCS estimated temperature and precipi-tation data, SRM produced a forecast hydrograph that had a r²= 0.82 and difference in seasonal volume of 4.4 percent. To approximate actual operational conditions, SRM computed daily flows were updated every seven days with measured flows. The resulting forecast hydrograph had a R²= 0.90 and a difference in volume of 3.5 percent. The method developed needs to be refined and tested on additional years and basins, but the approach appears to be applicable to operational runoff forecasting using remote sensing data.     

Influence of manure application on surface energy and snow cover: field experiments

Application of manure to frozen and/or snow-covered soils of high-latitude, continental climate regions is associated with enhanced P losses to surface water bodies, but the practice is an essential part of most animal farming systems in these regions. Field experiments of the fates of winter-applied manure P are so difficult as to make them essentially impractical, so a mechanistic, modeling approach is required. Central to a mechanistic understanding of manure P snow-melt runoff is knowledge of snowpack disappearance (ablation) as affected by manure application. The objective of this study was to learn how solid manure applied to snow-covered fields modulates the surface energy balance and thereby snow cover ablation. Manure landspreading experiments were conducted in Arlington, WI during the winters of 1998 and 1999. Solid dairy manure was applied on top of snow at a rate of 70 Mg ha(-1) in 1998, and at 45 and 100 Mg ha(-1) in 1999. Results showed that the manure retarded melt, in proportion to the rate applied. The low-albedo manure increased absorption of shortwave radiation compared with snow, but this extra energy was lost in longwave radiation and turbulent flux of sensible and latent heat. These losses result in significant attenuation of melt peaks, retarding snowmelt. Lower snowmelt rates beneath manure may allow more infiltration of meltwater compared with bare snow. This infiltration and attenuated snowmelt runoff may partially mitigate the enhanced likelihood of P runoff from unincorporated winter-spread manure.