Relationship of Effective to Census Size in Fluctuating Populations

Abstract: The effective size of a population (    N _e   ) rather than the census size (    N ) determines its rate of genetic drift. Knowing the ratio of effective to census size, N _e  /   N , is useful for estimating the effective size of a population from census data and for examining how different ecological factors influence effective size. Two different multigenerational ratios have been used in the literature based on either the arithmetic mean or the harmonic mean in the denominator. We clarify the interpretation and meaning of these ratios. The arithmetic mean N _e  /   N ratio compares the total number of real individuals to the long-term effective size of the population. The harmonic mean N _e  /   N ratio summarizes variation in the N _e  /   N ratio for each generation. In addition, we show that the ratio of the harmonic mean population size to the arithmetic mean population size provides a useful measure of how much fluctuation in size reduced the effective size of a population. We discuss applications of these ratios and emphasize how to use the harmonic mean N _e  /   N ratio to estimate the effective size of a population over a period of time for which census counts have been collected.     

Rapid Loss of Genetic Variation in Large Captive Populations of Drosophila Flies: Implications for the Genetic Management of Captive Populations

Levels of variation in eight large captive populations of D. melanogaster (census sizes ∼ 5000) that had been in captivity for periods from 6 months to 23 years (8 to 365 generations) were estimated from allozyme heterozygosities, lethal frequencies, and inversion heterozygosities and phenotypic variances, additive genetic variances ( V _A), and heritabilities ( h ²) for sternopleural bristle numbers. Correlations between all measures of variation except lethal frequencies were high and significant. All measures of genetic variation declined with time in captivity, with those for average heterozygosities, V _A, and h ² being significant. The effective population size ( N _e) was estimated to be 185–253 in these populations, only 0.037–0.051 of census size (N). Levels of allozyme heterozygosities declined rapidly in two large captive populations founded from another wild stock, being reduced by 86% and 62% within 2.5 years in spite of being maintained at sizes of approximately 1000 and 3500. Estimates of N _e/ N for these populations were only 0.016 and 0.004. Two estimates of N _e/ N for captive populations of D. pseudoobscura from data in the literature were also low at 0.036 and 0.012. Consequently, the rate of loss of genetic variation in captive populations and endangered species may be more rapid than hitherto recognized. Merely maintaining captive populations at large census sizes may not be sufficient to maintain essential genetic variation.     

Estimating the Effective Population Size of Conserved Populations

Accurate estimation of effective population size is important in attempts to conserve small populations of animals or plants. We review the genetic and ecological methods that have been used to estimate effective population size in the past and suggest that, while genetic methods may often be appropriate for the estimation of N _e, and its monitoring, ecological methods have the advantage of providing data that can help predict the effect of a changed environment on N _e. Estimation of N _e, is particularly complex in populations with overlapping generations, and we summarize previous empirical estimates of N _e that used ecological methods in such populations. Since it is often difficult to assess what parameters and assumptions have been used in previous calculations, we suggest a method that provides a good estimate of N _e, makes clear what assumptions are involved, and yet requires a minimum of information. The method is used to analyze data from 14 studies. In 36% (5) of these studies, our estimate is in excellent agreement with the original, and yet we use significantly less information, in 21% (3) the original estimate is markedly lower, in 43% (6) it is markedly higher. Reasons for the discrepancies are suggested. Two of the underestimates involve a failure in the original to account for a long maturation time, and four of life overestimates involve problems in the original with the correction for overlapping generations.     

Lineage Loss in Serengeti Cheetahs: Consequences of High Reproductive Variance and Heritability of Fitness on Effective Population Size

Abstract: In natural populations, many breeders do not leave surviving offspring, and as a result many potential genetic lineages are lost. I examined lineage extinction in Serengeti cheetahs ( Acinonyx jubatus ) and found that 76% of matrilines were lost over a 25-year period. Production of future breeders was nonrandom and generally confined to a few families. Five out of 63 matrilines accounted for 45% of the total cheetah population over the course of the study. Lineage persistence is perhaps best illustrated by the variance in lifetime reproductive success ( LRS) and heritability in this parameter. In female cheetahs, variance in LRS was high, and new data show that this LRS was heritable. Variance in LRS and heritability in LRS have dramatic consequences for effective population size, N _e. I calculated N _e for cheetahs, taking into account fluctuating population size, unequal sex ratio, non-Poisson distribution of reproductive success, and heritability of fitness. The N _e was most strongly affected by variance in reproductive success and especially heritability in reproductive success. The variance N _e was 44% of the actual population size, and the inclusion of heritability further reduced N _e to only 15% of the actual population, a ratio similar to that of a social carnivore with reproductive suppression. The current cheetah population in the Serengeti is below numbers suggested by N _e estimates as sufficient to maintain sufficient genetic diversity.     

Unprecedented Low Levels of Genetic Variation and Inbreeding Depression in an Island Population of the Black-Footed Rock-Wallaby

Abstract: It has been argued that demographic and environmental factors will cause small, isolated populations to become extinct before genetic factors have a significant negative impact. Islands provide an ideal opportunity to test this hypothesis because they often support small, isolated populations that are highly vulnerable to extinction. To assess the potential negative impact of isolation and small population size, we compared levels of genetic variation and fitness in island and mainland populations of the black-footed rock-wallaby ( Petrogale lateralis [Marsupialia: Macropodidae]). Our results indicate that the Barrow Island population of P. lateralis has unprecedented low levels of genetic variation (  H _e = 0.053, from 10 microsatellite loci) and suffers from inbreeding depression (reduced female fecundity, skewed sex ratio, increased levels of fluctuating asymmetry). Despite a long period of isolation ( ∼ 1600 generations) and small effective population size (  N _e ∼ 15), demographic and environmental factors have not yet driven this population to extinction. Nevertheless, it has been affected significantly by genetic factors. It has lost most of its genetic variation and become highly inbred (  F _e = 0.91), and it exhibits reduced fitness. Because several other island populations of P. lateralis also exhibit exceptionally low levels of genetic variation, this phenomenon may be widespread. Inbreeding in these populations is at a level associated with high rates of extinction in populations of domestic and laboratory species. Genetic factors cannot then be excluded as contributing to the extinction proneness of small, isolated populations.     

Application of the One-Migrant-per-Generation Rule to Conservation and Management

Abstract:  Endangered species are commonly found in several (partially) isolated populations dispersed on different fragments of a habitat, natural reserve, or zoo. A certain level of connectivity among such populations is essential for maintaining genetic variation within and between populations to allow local and global adaptation and for preventing inbreeding depression. A rule of thumb widely accepted by the conservation community is that one migrant per generation (OMPG) into a population is the appropriate level of gene flow. This rule is based on Wright's study of his island model under a long list of simplifying assumptions. I examined the robustness of the OMPG rule to the violation of each of the many assumptions, quantifying the effect with population genetics theory. I showed that, when interpreted as one effective migrant per generation, OMPG is generally valid for real populations departing from the ideal model in the discrepancies of actual (  N ) and effective (  N_e  ) population sizes and actual ( m ) and effective ( m_e  ) migration rates. I also addressed the issue of converting the effective number of migrants (  M_e= N_em_e  ) into the actual number of migrants ( M = Nm  ) of a certain age and sex. In particular, N_e < N , a case common for natural populations, did not necessarily require M > M_e to maintain a certain level of differentiation among populations. Rather, translating the elusive M_e into the manageable M depends on the specific causes (e.g., biased sex ratio, reproductive skew) that lead to N_e < N .     

Modeling Problems in Conservation Genetics Using Captive Drosophila Populations: Consequences of Equalization of Family Sizes

Equalization of family sizes is recommended for use in captive breeding programs, as it is predicted to double effective population sizes, reduce inbreeding, and slow the loss of genetic variation. The effects of maintaining small captive populations with equalization of family sizes versus random choice of parents on levels of inbreeding genetic variation, reproductive fitness, and effective population sizes ( N _e) were evaluated in 10 lines of each treatment maintained with four pairs of parents per generation. The mean inbreeding coefficient ( F ) increased at a significantly slower rate with equalization than with random choice (means of 0.35 and 0.44 at generation 10). Average heterozygosities at generation 10, based on six polymorphic enzyme loci, were significantly higher with equalization (0.149) than with random choice (0.085), compared to the generation 0 level of 0.188. The competitive index measure of reproductive fitness at generation 11 was more than twice as high with equalization as with random choice, both being much lower than in the outbred base population. There was considerable variation among replicate lines within treatments in all the above measures and considerable overlap between lines from the two treatments. Estimates of N _e for equalization were greater than those for random choice, whether estimated from changes in average heterozygosities or from changes in F. Equalization of family sizes can be unequivocally recommended for use in the genetic management of captive populations.     

Comparisons of Genetic Diversity in the Endangered Adenophora lobophylla and Its Widespread Congener, A. potaninii

Abstract: Starch-gel electrophoresis was used to examine the levels and distribution of genetic diversity in two Adenophora species: the narrow endangered Adenophora lobophylla and its widespread congener, A. potaninii . Based on allozyme variation at 18 putative loci, we measured high levels of genetic variability both in the endangered and the widespread species, with 83.3% of the loci being polymorphic. The mean expected heterozygosity within populations (   H _ep  ) and within species (   H _es  ) were 0.234 and 0.244 for A. potaninii and were as high as 0.210 and 0.211 for A. lobophylla . There was higher differentiation among populations in A. potaninii (   F _ST = 0.155) than in A. lobophylla (   F _ST = 0.071). The high levels of genetic diversity in the present allozyme survey are consistent with the morphological variation observed in these species and may be attributed to high outcrossing rates in the Adenophora species. In addition, A. lobophylla was identified as a distinct species on the basis of Nei's genetic distances and thus should be given a high priority for protection. It is noteworthy that the endangered A. lobophylla maintains much higher genetic diversity than most endemic or narrowly distributed plant species in spite of its restricted distribution. We hypothesize that A. lobophylla has become endangered for ecological and stochastic reasons, including habitat destruction or environmental changes, mud slides, and human disturbance such as grazing and mowing. Consequently, habitat protection is of particular importance for conserving this endangered species.     

Genetic Diversity of Lepilemur mustelinus ruficaudatus, a Nocturnal Lemur of Madagascar

The genetic polymorphism of natural populations of Lepilemur mustelinus ruficaudatus was studied by protein electrophoresis. We sampled blood from 72 individuals from four populations separated by geographic or anthropogenic barriers from southwestern Madagascar. Six out of 22 enzyme loci showed genetic variation with a degree of polymorphism of 0.273. The expected and observed degree of genetic heterozygosity over all loci is similar to that of other primates (H_e = 0.058, H_o = 0.036). The F-statistics revealed that the four subpopulations were similar with respect to gene structure (F_ST = 0.065, p = 0.016), but the genotypic structures within subpopulations were inconsistent with random mating. For the total of the four subpopulations the proportion of heterozygous individuals was significantly smaller than expected under random mating (F_IS = 0.373, F_IT = 0.414, p < 0.01). These results correspond closely to what is expected considering the low migration ability of individuals of L. m ruficaudatus leading to small and rather isolated inbred populations.     

Genetic Structure of a Mimosoid Tree Deprived of Its Seed Disperser, the Spider Monkey

Abstract: To assess the genetic consequences for a Neotropical tree of the loss of its main seed disperser, we compared the genetic structure of Inga ingoides in a site where the spider monkey (Ateles paniscus) was abundant and a site where it had been eliminated by subsistence hunting. Gene flow should be reduced in the site where the spider monkey is absent, and there should be a corresponding subpopulation differentiation of seedlings within the spatial range of the movements of these primates in the absence of between-site differences in allelic frequencies. At the microhabitat (  family) scale, seedlings growing under parent plants should be genetically more related in the absence of the spider monkey than in its presence. Subpopulation differentiation was smaller where the spider monkey was present (  four loci, F_ST = 0.011) than where it was absent (  four loci, F_ST = 0.053) for the first year of study, but not for the second year (three loci, F_ST = 0.005 vs. 0.003). The number of alleles in common among seedlings growing under parent plants was smaller in the presence of the spider monkey than in its absence, showing family genetic structure in the first generation for both years of study ( Mann-Whitney, z = −2.17, p = 0.03 and z = −2.72, p = 0.006 for 1996 and 1997, respectively). This family genetic structure in the first generation should accelerate the development of population genetic structure. Development of genetic structure might result in demographic changes, one of which would be a fitness reduction if the species were self-incompatible, as suggested for Inga by available evidence. Large birds and mammals are the main targets of subsistence hunting in the Neotropics. Extinction of seed-dispersing frugivores may result in pronounced changes in the demographic and genetic structure of tree species in Neotropical forests.     

Microsatellite Analysis of Population Structure in the Endangered Hawaiian Monk Seal

Abstract: The endangered Hawaiian monk seal breeds at six locations in the northwestern Hawaiian Islands. To determine whether significant genetic differentiation exists among these sites, we used microsatellite loci to examine the monk seal population structure at the five largest breeding colonies. Of 27 loci isolated from other seal species, only 3 were polymorphic in an initial screening of one individual from each breeding site. Only two alleles were found at each of these 3 loci in samples of 46–108 individuals. This extremely low variation is consistent with other measures of genetic variability in this species and is probably the result of a recent severe population bottleneck, combined with a long-term history of small population sizes. Although the smallest monk seal subpopulation in this study ( Kure Atoll) showed some evidence of heterozygote deficit, possibly indicative of inbreeding, the next smallest ( Pearl and Hermes Reef) had an apparent excess of heterozygous individuals. Genetic differentiation was detected between the two subpopulations at extreme ends of the range ( Kure and French Frigate Shoals). This trend was significant only at the microsatellite locus for which we had the largest sample size ( Hg6.3: R _ST = 0.206, p = 0.002; allelic goodness of fit G _h = 15.412, p < 0.005). French Frigate Shoals is the source population for translocated animals that have been released primarily at Kure Atoll. Differentiation between these sites consisted of allele frequency differences (with the same allele predominant in each location at all three loci), rather than the preservation of alternative alleles. Although the translocations have had positive demographic effects, we recommend continued genetic monitoring of both the source and recipient populations because translocated individuals are now entering the breeding population.     

Relationship of Breeding System to Rarity in the Lakeside Daisy (Hymenoxys acaulis var. glabra)

The breeding system of a rare Great Lakes endemic, the lakeside daisy ( Hymenoxys acaulis var. glabra ), was investigated when plants from a remnant Illinois population produced no seeds for over 15 years. To determine if the Lakeside daisy was self-incompatible, 20 plants from two populations, Illinois and Ohio, were selfed and outcrossed. Seed/ovule ratios were compared among the different treatments and the location of the incompatibility reaction was identified. Lakeside daisy was found to be self-incompatible (sporophytic). The last Illinois population was effectively extinct because the remaining plants belonged to the same mating type ( N _e = 1) and only produced seeds when outcrossed to the Ohio plants. Cross-incompatibility was also observed among Ohio plants, suggesting that within large populations, compatible mating types may be rare locally. In addition, inbreeding depression (lower seed/ovule ratios in inbred than in outcrosses) was observed after one generation of inbreeding. Small populations of self-incompatible species are vulnerable to extinction if the number of self-incompatibility alleles, either as a result of a bottleneck or of genetic drift, falls below tbe number needed for the breeding system to function. Recovery protocols based on these genetic considerations were developed and implemented in 1988 when Lakeside daisy populations were established at three Illinois nature preserves.     

Inbreeding and Loss of Genetic Variation in a Reintroduced Population of Mauritius Kestrel

Abstract:  Many populations have recovered from severe bottlenecks either naturally or through intensive conservation management. In the past, however, few conservation programs have monitored the genetic health of recovering populations. We conducted a conservation genetic assessment of a small, reintroduced population of Mauritius Kestrel ( Falco punctatus ) to determine whether genetic deterioration has occurred since its reintroduction. We used pedigree analysis that partially accounted for individuals of unknown origin to document that (1) inbreeding occurred frequently (2.6% increase per generation; N _eI= 18.9), (2) 25% of breeding pairs were composed of either closely or moderately related individuals, (3) genetic diversity has been lost from the population (1.6% loss per generation; N _eV= 32.1) less rapidly than the corresponding increase in inbreeding, and (4) ignoring the contribution of unknown individuals to a pedigree will bias the metrics derived from that pedigree, ultimately obscuring the prevailing genetic dynamics. The rates of inbreeding and loss of genetic variation in the subpopulation of Mauritius Kestrel we examined were extreme and among the highest yet documented in a wild vertebrate population. Thus, genetic deterioration may affect this population's long-term viability. Remedial conservation strategies are needed to reduce the impact of inbreeding and loss of genetic variation in this species. We suggest that schemes to monitor genetic variation after reintroduction should be an integral component of endangered species recovery programs.     

Effects of Habitat Fragmentation on Effective Population Size in the Endangered Rio Grande Silvery Minnow

Abstract:  We assessed spatial and temporal patterns of genetic diversity to evaluate effects of river fragmentation on remnant populations of the federally endangered Rio Grande silvery minnow ( Hybognathus amarus ). Analysis of microsatellite and mitochondrial DNA detected little spatial genetic structure over the current geographic range, consistent with high gene flow despite fragmentation by dams. Maximum-likelihood analysis of temporal genetic data indicated, however, that present-day effective population size ( N_eV ) of the largest extant population of this species was 78 and the ratio of effective size to adult numbers ( N_eV/N ) was ∼ 0.001 during the study period (1999 to 2001). Coalescent-based analytical methods provided an estimate of historical (river fragmentation was completed in 1975) effective size ( N_eI  ) that ranged between 10⁵ and 10⁶. We propose that disparity between contemporary and historical estimates of N_e and low contemporary N_e/N result from recent changes in demography related to river fragmentation. Rio Grande silvery minnows produce pelagic eggs and larvae subject to downstream transport through diversion dams. This life-history feature results in heavy losses of yearly reproductive effort to emigration and mortality, and extremely large variance in reproductive success among individuals and spawning localities. Interaction of pelagic early life history and river fragmentation has altered demographic and genetic dynamics of remnant populations and reduced N_e to critically low values over ecological time.     

Genetic Diversity in the Endangered Lily Harperocallis flava and a Close Relative, Tofieldia racemosa

We examined genetic diversity in 464 individuals of the monotypic lily Harperocallis flava in its two habitats (seepage bogs and a roadside right-of-way) and five populations of a co-occurring related lily, Tofieldia racemosa. The endangered H. flava, endemic to the Apalachicola lowlands of the Florida panhandle, was monomorphic for the 22 loci scored. In contrast, T. racemosa had a high proportion of polymorphic loci ( P_s = 68.2%; P_p = 47.7%) with moderate genetic diversity (   H_es = 0.134; H_ep = 0.114). Estimated gene flow was moderately high ( Nm = 2.07) for T. racemosa, with most (93%) of the total genetic diversity found within populations. Despite the low level of genetic divergence, some isolation by distance was detected among T. racemosa populations. Harperocallis flava and other species without discernable genetic variation pose special problems for conservation biologists because genetic criteria are not available for the development of ex situ and in situ conservation and management strategies.     

Low Genetic Variability in the Hawaiian Monk Seal

The Hawaiian monk seal (   Monachus schauinslandi) is a critically endangered species that has failed to recover from human exploitation despite decades of protection and ongoing management efforts designed to increase population growth. The seals breed at five principal locations in the northwestern Hawaiian islands, and inter-island migration is limited. Genetic variation in this species is expected to be low due to a recent population bottleneck and probable inbreeding within small subpopulations. To test the hypothesis that small population size and strong site fidelity has led to low within-island genetic variability and significant between-island differentiation, we used two independent approaches to quantify genetic variation both within and among the principal subpopulations. Mitochondrial control region and tRNA gene sequences (359 base pairs) were obtained from 50 seals and revealed very low genetic diversity (0.6% variable sites), with no evidence of subpopulation differentiation. Multilocus DNA fingerprints from 22 individuals also indicated low genetic variation in at least some subpopulations (band-sharing values for "unrelated" seals from the same island ranged from 49 to 73%). This method also provided preliminary evidence of population subdivision (  F'_st estimates of 0.20 and 0.13 for two adjacent island pairs). Translocations of seals among islands may therefore have the potential to relieve local inbreeding and possibly to reduce the total amount of variation preserved in the population. Genetic variation is only one of many factors that determine the ability of an endangered species to recover. Maintenance of existing genetic diversity, however, remains an important priority for conservation programs because of the possibility of increased disease resistance in more variable populations and the chance that inbreeding depression may only be manifest under adverse environmental conditions.     

Developing a Sampling Strategy for Baptisia arachnifera Based on Allozyme Diversity

We analyzed the amount and distribution of genetic variation in Baptisia arachnifera Duncan to develop a sampling strategy for ex situ research. Baptisia arachnifera is an endangered plant species endemic to the coastal plain of Georgia (U.S.) where all populations are within 16 km of each other. A reduction in numbers of individuals has been observed during the last 50 years. Baptisia arachnifera was polymorphic at 24% of the 37 loci examined with an average of 1.32 alleles per locus. The genetic diversity index was relatively low ( H_e = 0.097) as expected for endemic species. Populations were in Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium, suggesting that the species is outcrossing. Consistent with this conclusion is the observation that the majority (approximately 90%) of the genetic variation present in the species is found within individual populations. Indirect evidence of gene flow between populations was detected (   Nm = 2.35). The close proximity of the populations and the recent reduction in population sizes suggest that the populations surveyed may be fragments of a once more continuous gene pool. Based on the observed distribution of genetic diversity among populations (G_ST = 0.096), sampling two populations would capture 99% of the allozyme diversity surveyed. Allozyme data were used to determine which 2 of the 10 populations surveyed should be sampled to maximize the ex situ conservation of genetic diversity. Although the paper-producing companies that own most of the land where Baptisia arachnifera occurs are modifying their harvesting techniques, the species could become extinct without more effective management and preservation efforts.     

Urban Plants as Genetic Reservoirs or Threats to the Integrity of Bushland Plant Populations

Abstract:  Remnant plants in urban fringes and native plants in gardens have the potential to contribute to the conservation of threatened plants by increasing genetic diversity, effective size of populations, and levels of genetic connectedness. But they also pose a threat through the disruption of locally adapted gene pools. At Hyams Beach, New South Wales, Australia, four bushland stands of the rare shrub, Grevillea macleayana McGillivray, surround an urban area containing remnant and cultivated specimens of this species. Numbers of inflorescences per plant, fruits per plant, and visits by pollinators were similar for plants in urban gardens and bushland. Urban plants represented a substantial but complex genetic resource, displaying more genetic diversity than bushland plants judged by H_e , numbers of alleles per locus, and number of private alleles. Of 27 private alleles in urban plants, 17 occurred in a set of 19 exotic plants. Excluding the exotic plants, all five stands displayed a moderate differentiation ( F_ST = 0.14 ± 0.02), although the urban remnants clustered with two of the bushland stands. These patterns may be explained by high levels of selfing and inbreeding in this species and by long-distance dispersal (several seeds in the urban stand were fathered by plants in other stands). Genetic leakage (gene flow) from exotic plants to 321 seeds on surrounding remnant or bushland plants has not occurred. Our results demonstrate the conservation value of this group of urban plants, which are viable, productive, genetically diverse, and interconnected with bushland plants. Gene flow has apparently not yet led to genetic contamination of bushland populations, but high levels of inbreeding would make this a rare event and difficult to detect. Remnant plants in urban gardens could successfully contribute to recovery plans for endangered and vulnerable species.     

Genetic Effects of Habitat Fragmentation on Common Species of Swiss Fen Meadows

Abstract:  The area of Caricion davallianae alliance in Switzerland has been considerably reduced and fragmented during the last 150 years. We assessed the genetic variability, inbreeding level, and among-population differentiation of two common habitat-specific plant species, Carex davalliana SM. and Succisa pratensis Moench, in 18 Caricion davallianae fen meadows subjected to fragmentation. We used a spatial field design of fen systems (six systems total), each consisting of one large habitat island and two small habitat islands. We used allozyme electrophoresis to derive standard genetic parameters ( A, P, H_O, H_E, F_IS, F_ST ). In Carex we identified a consistently lower A in isolated habitat islands; furthermore, H_E was lower in small habitat islands than in large habitat islands. In Succisa we identified a lower H_O in small habitat islands than in larger ones. Small habitat islands were marginally significantly differentiated (  F_ST ) from large islands for Succisa . For both species, no effects were evident for F_IS ; therefore, we argue that genetic drift rather than inbreeding is the main cause of the observed differences. The genetic structure of Carex and Succisa in small habitat islands differed from that in large habitat islands, but differences were small. It appears that the observed differences in genetic variability among fen meadows correspond to observed differences in fitness and demographic traits. We show that habitat fragmentation affects not only the rare species in an ecosystem but also reduces the survival probabilities of common species. One of the main goals of conservation should be to mitigate fragmentation of natural habitats in order to increase population sizes and connectivity.     

Predicting the Deleterious Effects of Mutation Load in Fragmented Populations

Abstract:  Human-induced habitat fragmentation constitutes a major threat to biodiversity. Both genetic and demographic factors combine to drive small and isolated populations into extinction vortices. Nevertheless, the deleterious effects of inbreeding and drift load may depend on population structure, migration patterns, and mating systems and are difficult to predict in the absence of crossing experiments. We performed stochastic individual-based simulations aimed at predicting the effects of deleterious mutations on population fitness (offspring viability and median time to extinction) under a variety of settings (landscape configurations, migration models, and mating systems) on the basis of easy-to-collect demographic and genetic information. Pooling all simulations, a large part (70%) of variance in offspring viability was explained by a combination of genetic structure ( F_ST ) and within-deme heterozygosity ( H_S ). A similar part of variance in median time to extinction was explained by a combination of local population size ( N ) and heterozygosity ( H_S ). In both cases the predictive power increased above 80% when information on mating systems was available. These results provide robust predictive models to evaluate the viability prospects of fragmented populations.