Comparison of IEUBK model predictions and actual blood lead values at a former battery recycling site

This paper presents an evaluation of US EPA's integrated exposureuptake biokinetic model for lead (IEUBK model) using data obtained during emergency removal operations at a former lead-acid battery recycling plant and the surrounding community. Data employed in the study include soil lead and interior dust lead, air lead levels collected at the site perimeter, drinking water lead levels at the community water main and blood lead data collected from an annual blood lead monitoring programme conducted over a four year period during the remediation activities.Geometric mean soil and dust concentrations were found to be a better predictor of blood lead than arithmetic mean data. However, weight based dust lead data were believed to be an inappropriate measure of dust lead levels. Estimates of household dust lead concentrations based upon surface loading data (g m^–2) yielded blood lead predictions which were more consistent with data collected in the blood lead monitoring programme     

Berücksichtigung von Variabilität und Unsicherheit in quantitativen Risikoabschätzungen (QRA)

Using the example of residential living on a contaminated site, a probabilistic exposure assessment is performed with variability and uncertainty being modelled separately. Probability distributions are used in the exposure model in order to characterize person-related variables (e.g. body weight) only; chemical-specific parameters are being held constant. In addition, uncertainty concerning one selected variable (soil ingestion rate) was modelled. Comparing these results to conventional “worst case” estimates, we find those estimates located in the uppermost range of the probabilistic estimates. The worst case estimates tend to be highly conservative and possibly unrealistic.     

Probabilistic prediction of exposures to arsenic contaminated residential soil

Probabilistic modelling using Monte Carlo simulation has been proposed as a more scientifically valid method of estimating soil contaminant exposures than conservative deterministic methods currently used by regulatory agencies. A retrospective application of probabilistic modelling to an exposure scenario involving arsenic-contaminated residential soil near the former ASARCO smelter near Tacoma, Washington is presented. The population of interest is children, aged 2–6 years, living within one-half mile (0.3 km) of the smelter site. Models that predict urinary arsenic levels based on unintentional soil ingestion and inhalation exposure pathways are used. Distributions of exposure variables are based on site-specific data and previous exposure studies. Simulated urinary arsenic levels are compared with data from two biomonitoring studies performed during the late 1980s. Arsenic distributions produced by simulation and biomonitoring are significantly different, and likely contributors to this difference are discussed. However the probabilistic model provides closer estimations of urinary arsenic levels than conservative deterministic models similar to those used by regulatory agencies, and provides useful information regarding parameter uncertainty. Soil ingestion rate was a driving variable in the probabilistic models. Further quantification of soil ingestion rates is warranted.     

Probabilistische Modelle der Expositionsabschätzung

Probabilistic exposure and risk assessment can show and help to explicate the uncertainties of deterministic single-point estimates. Heterogeneity in population and exposure parameters (variability) is a part of probabilistic models which makes use of distributions for the main influential factors. The distributions of the target variables are calculated as a model-based combination of all influence factors by Monte Carlo-simulation methods. The differences between classical and probabilistic exposure assessment are demonstrated using a residential area with soil contamination as an example. The estimated arsenic exposure due to soil and dust is calculated by deterministic single-point estimates and probabilistic exposure assessment. The results are compared to the biomonitoring results of an epidemiological study. A criteria catalogue for exposure model validation is given and discussed for this example. In this scenario, the probabilistic exposure prognosis fits the empirical data better than that of a deterministic, single-point assessment. Both approaches seem to overestimate exposure with respect to empirical data.     

Uncertainty analysis of a pharmacokinetic modeling for inorganic arsenic

This paper presents an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of a pharmacokinetic modeling of inorganic arsenic deposition in rodents for a short‐term exposure. Efforts to develop the pharmacokinetic model are directed towards predicting the kinetic behavior of inorganic arsenic in the body, including tissue and blood concentrations, and especially, the urinary excretion of arsenic and its methylated metabolites. However, the use of the model raises an important question when fixed values of model parameters are used: how is the uncertainty in the model prediction based on the collective uncertainties in the model inputs? This study focuses on an “epistemic”; uncertainty in order to handle this problem. In this case, the uncertainty refers to an input that has a single value which cannot be known with precision due to a lack of knowledge about items or its measurement. The combination of the pharmacokinetic model and the uncertainty analysis would help understand the uncertainties in risk assessment associated with inorganic arsenic.     

Seasonal variation in paediatric blood lead levels in Syracuse,NY, USA

Venous blood lead values for 2,633 children aged 0–4 years in Syracuse, New York, collected between 1 April 1992 and 31 March 1993 were summarised by census tract for study of geographic variability. A demographic exposure model is presented showing housing stock and SES (socioeconomic status) parameters as the most significant predictor variables. A seasonal trend in blood lead levels was observed with late summer values about 40% higher than late winter values for census tracts with the highest geometric mean PbB levels. Seasonal variation is compared with a biokinetic uptake model to examine hypotheses about temporal variations in soil and dust lead exposure patterns.     

Methodische Aspekte probabilistischer Modellierung

The main topic of probabilistic modelling is to introduce the subject of variability into exposure assessment. Instead of fixed parameters (means, percentiles), each variable will be expressed in the mathematical form of a distribution of their realisations in the population of interest. The technique of Monte Carlo simulations also makes complex models computable. The results are expressions of variation and uncertainty in exposure assessment. The text discusses the principle and new methodical efforts in modelling: The fit of input distributions, the technical realizations and possibilities in documentation of the results.     

The use of Monte Carlo simulation techniques to predict population blood lead levels

Effective management of the risks posed by lead depends on an understanding of the relationship between exposure (the presence and accessibility of lead in the environment) and dose (blood lead levels). Our paper begins by outlining the type of information most valuable to a decision maker addressing the lead problem. A useful exposure-dose characterisation must address multiple contamination sources simultaneously, provide estimates of the number of people with blood lead levels exceeding critical thresholds, and assess the influence of modifying factors (e.g. the soil and dust ingestion rate) on population blood lead variability. We describe a pilot effort to develop an urban setting lead exposure-dose model, and use this model to compare three approaches for generating model input quantities: (1) worst-case estimates, (2) central estimates and (3) Monte Carlo simulation. Using the criteria outlined above, we find that the Monte Carlo technique provides the most useful model output. We describe the population blood lead level distribution generated by the model, as well as the relative influence of environmental and behavioural factors on the variability of the population distribution. Finally, we assess the impact of parameter uncertainty on the model output, and contend this type of information can help identify areas in which further empirical study would be most valuable.     

Uncertainty in the assessment of hazard,exposure and risk

The terminology, concepts and current approaches to uncertainty in the assessment of hazard, exposure and risk are reviewed. Five generic questions are discussed on uncertainty, including sources, levels, when and how it should be dealt with or reduced, what are our gaps in understanding and how they can be addressed. A case study of lead exposure of children in Lavrion, Greece, is used to exemplify these questions and possible answers. Estimation of uncertainty may be improved by the use of interorganisational studies to capture sources of uncertainty that are often overlooked. Gaps identified in our understanding of uncertainty include: a limitation in the availability of basic measurements, a lack of knowledge of the environmental processes, an inability to predict the effects of mixtures, the aetiology of disease and devising procedures for optimal resource allocation in impact assessment.     

White blood cell sister chromatid exchange among a sample of Thai subjects exposed to lead: Lead-induced genotoxicity

Epidemiological and experimental studies indicated that inorganic lead compounds are associated with increased risks of tumorigenesis. This study was aimed at determination for sister chromatid exchange (SCE), a marker for genotoxicity with correlation to lead blood levels in Thai exposed subjects. A total of 32 police (all males) were included into this study. The average (mean ± SD) blood lead in these police was 2.1 ± 1 µmol L^?1. The average SCE among the police with high blood lead was significant higher than those with low metal exposure. Data suggest that cytogenetic response to Pb is significantly different between the subjects with high versus low lead exposure. High exposure to lead seems related to high chromosome aberrations.     

The variability of lead in dusts within the homes of young children

The variability of household dust lead concentration and loadings over the period of about a year has been examined in 10 homes. The overall uncertainty on a single sample is ± 65% for lead concentration and ± 81% for lead loading. Redecoration involving electric sanding and/or blow lamp preparation of painted surfaces is the major cause of variation in lead levels. The effect is short lived, levels returning to normal within 2 months of redecoration ending. There is evidence of a seasonal trend for dust loading and lead loading but not for lead concentration. The implications of these findings for blood lead — dust lead exposure studies are considered.This paper is also being published in the proceedings of the conference on Lead in the Home Environment and is one of several selected from the SEGH sponsored conferences for republication in this journal.     

Soil Lead and Children’s Blood Lead Levels in Syracuse, NY, USA

A geo-referenced data set of 12 228 first-time blood lead screening values for Syracuse, NY, children was established for the 4-year period 1992–1996. Soil lead values were measured in a 600 m by 600 m tessellation grid covering the city. The two data sets were merged for evaluation of relationships between them. Strong seasonal variation in blood lead levels suggests the importance of contaminated soils as an exposure source. When the data were aggregated at a large geographic scale (3 km²), a logarithmic model showed an R² of > 0.65 for the regression of geometric mean blood lead on median soil lead values. Results showed a striking similarity to those obtained by Mielke et al. (1999) for a study in New Orleans, LA, USA.     

Blood lead determinants of a population living in a former lead mining area in Southern Scotland

The impact of high environmental lead levels on public health is currently under much debate. Such a situation exists in two former lead mining villages set in the Southern Uplands of Scotland, where the environment is heavily contaminated through past mining activity. A survey was conducted based on representative samples of male and female adults and of all children living in the area, to examine the distribution of blood lead levels and to compare this with the distribution in residents in a control area. Possible routes of exposure including the determination of lead in domestic water, in house dust, in airborne dust, on food preparation surfaces, on hands, in garden soils and through home grown vegetable consumption were investigated. The results indicate that there is a general increase in lead exposure in environmental variables in the contaminated area, while blood lead levels show an excess of between 45 and 70 percent compared with the control. The determinants of blood lead are discussed through correlation and multiple regression analysis.     

Spatial relationships between lead sources and children’s blood lead levels in the urban center of Indianapolis (USA)

Urban children remain disproportionately at risk of having higher blood lead levels than their suburban counterparts. The Westside Cooperative Organization (WESCO), located in Marion County, Indianapolis, Indiana, has a history of children with high blood lead levels as well as high soil lead (Pb) values. This study aims at determining the spatial relationship between soil Pb sources and children’s blood lead levels. Soils have been identified as a source of chronic Pb exposure to children, but the spatial scale of the source–recipient relationship is not well characterized. Neighborhood-wide analysis of soil Pb distribution along with a furnace filter technique for sampling interior Pb accumulation for selected homes (n = 7) in the WESCO community was performed. Blood lead levels for children aged 0–5 years during the period 1999–2008 were collected. The study population’s mean blood lead levels were higher than national averages across all ages, race, and gender. Non-Hispanic blacks and those individuals in the Wishard advantage program had the highest proportion of elevated blood lead levels. The results show that while there is not a direct relationship between soil Pb and children’s blood lead levels at a spatial scale of ~100 m, resuspension of locally sourced soil is occurring based on the interior Pb accumulation. County-wide, the largest predictor of elevated blood lead levels is the location within the urban core. Variation in soil Pb and blood lead levels on the community level is high and not predicted by housing stock age or income. Race is a strong predictor for blood lead levels in the WESCO community.     

A submodel for anaerobic mud-water exchange of phosphate

A submodel for anaerobic mud-water exchange of phosphate is obtained from experiments in the laboratory. Phosphorus in the sediment can be divided into exchangeable and non-exchangeable phosphorus. The exchangeable phosphorus is decomposed in accordance with a first-order reaction. The phosphorus moves, after the decomposition process, from the interstitial water to the water phase, in accordance with a diffusion expression. The yearly increase of the sediment was determined by means of the lead concentration as a function of the depth.     

Air lead,blood lead and travel by car

Evidence on the relevance of lead in petrol to lead in blood has come from two main sources. Cross sectional studies of blood lead levels in population samples and in the air to which they are exposed suggest that petrol makes only a very small contribution. However longitudinal studies in the USA in which changes in lead levels in petrol and changes in blood lead have been studied suggest that petrol makes a substantial contribution to blood lead. The possibility that this discrepancy might be explained by the exposure of subjects to very high levels of lead when travelling in motor vehicles is examined, and rejected.     

Spatiotemporal Patterns and Risk Factors for Lead Exposure in Endangered California Condors during 15 Years of Reintroduction

Large‐scale poisoning events are common to scavenging bird species that forage communally, many of which are in decline. To reduce the threat of poisoning and compensate for other persistent threats, management, including supplemental feeding, is ongoing for many reintroduced and endangered vulture populations. Through a longitudinal study of lead exposure in California condors (Gymnogyps californianus), we illustrate the conservation challenges inherent in reintroduction of an endangered species to the wild when pervasive threats have not been eliminated. We evaluated population‐wide patterns in blood lead levels from 1997 to 2011 and assessed a broad range of putative demographic, behavioral, and environmental risk factors for elevated lead exposure among reintroduced California condors in California (United States). We also assessed the effectiveness of lead ammunition regulations within the condor's range in California by comparing condor blood lead levels before and after implementation of the regulations. Lead exposure was a pervasive threat to California condors despite recent regulations limiting lead ammunition use. In addition, condor lead levels significantly increased as age and independence from intensive management increased, including increasing time spent away from managed release sites, and decreasing reliance on food provisions. Greater independence among an increasing number of reintroduced condors has therefore elevated the population's risk of lead exposure and limited the effectiveness of lead reduction efforts to date. Our findings highlight the challenges of restoring endangered vulture populations as they mature and become less reliant on management actions necessary to compensate for persistent threats. Patrones Espaciotemporales y Factores de Riesgo por Exposición a Plomo en Cóndores de California Durante 15 Años de Reintroducción     

The importance of agricultural yield elasticity for indirect land use change: a Bayesian network analysis for robust uncertainty quantification

ABSTRACT

A major barrier to realising biofuels’ climate change mitigation potential is uncertainty concerning carbon emissions from indirect land use change (ILUC). Central to this uncertainty is the extent to which yields can respond dynamically to increased demand for agricultural commodities. This study examines the elasticity of soybean and corn yields in the USA for 1990–2017 using Bayesian network models to robustly quantify uncertainty. The central finding is that a single parameter value for yield elasticity does not adequately represent the effects of technology, policy and price pressures through time. The models demonstrate the limiting role of technological progress as well as farmers’ capital investment in response to system shocks. Results suggest evaluation of parameter uncertainty alone is unlikely to capture a full range of future ILUC scenarios and reiterate the need for ILUC studies to use probabilistic approaches as standard to robustly inform climate change mitigation policies.     

Classification of occupations at risk in Thailand for lead exposure using blood lead levels as a biomarker

Lead (Pb) exposure is of particular concern because of the ongoing exposure of thousands of workers in industrial plants. Monitoring of Pb exposure among the at-risk workers is recommended and amongst various biomarkers, and it is well-established that blood lead (BPb) determination is utilized for biomonitoring. There are some previous reports on the BPb levels among several at-risk occupations in Thailand; however, there has been no comparison among these occupations with respect to metal levels in the blood. The aim of this study was to correlate at-risk occupations with Pb exposure and BPb levels. In order to compare between occupations, it was not possible to obtain a direct correlation as there are several confounding factors, especially for occupational conditions and lab measurement techniques. In this study, the exposure risk ratio from five previously available reports regarding BPb determination in at-risk occupations in Thailand is presented. Of interest, the high risk occupations are those in which individuals directly inhaled Pb in environmental ambient air. The cutoff median of exposure risk ratio was found to be 12.6 and this may be a useful value in determining whether exposed workers are at high risk in future studies.