气候变化对江苏省经济的影响研究

利用经济学上的“投入－产出”分析方法,结合气候变化对农业产量影响的计算机模拟系统,研究了当气候变化影响农业生产和产量时,江苏省农业产值的变化及与农业部门相联系的国民经济各个部门产出量的变化。考虑江苏省的经济发展速度和产业结构,预测了未来不同的气候变化情景下,为使经济发展达到预期目标,社会需对各经济部门追加的资金投入量及各经济部门之间相互投入量的变化,提出了适应气候变化的相应对策。研究结果反映了国民经济各部门之间及部门与整体的相互联系,从而对制定区域经济平衡发展规划提供了理论依据和建议。     

Regionalization of climate scenarios impacts on maize production and the role of cultivar and planting date as an adaptation strategy

Understanding climate change and its impacts on crops is crucial to determine adaptation strategies. Simulations of climate change impacts on agricultural systems are often run for individual sites. Nevertheless, the scaling up of crop model results can bring a more complete picture, providing better inputs for the decision-making process. The objective of this paper was to present a procedure to assess the regional impacts of climate scenarios on maize production, as well as the effect of crop cultivars and planting dates as an adaptation strategy. The focus region is Santa Catarina State, Brazil. The identification of agricultural areas cultivated with annual crops was done for the whole state, followed by the coupling of soil and weather information necessary for the crop modeling procedure (using crop model and regional circulation models). The impact on maize yields, so as the effect of adaptation strategies, was calculated for the 2012–2040 period assuming different maize cultivars and planting dates. Results showed that the exclusion of non-agricultural areas allowed the crop model to correctly simulate local and regional production. Simulations run without adaptation strategies for the 2012–2040 period showed reductions of 11.5–13.5 % in total maize production, depending on the cultivar. By using the best cultivar for each agricultural area, total state production was increased by 6 %; when using both adaptation strategies—cultivar and best planting date—total production increased by 15 %. This analysis showed that cultivar and planting date are feasible adaptation strategies to mitigate deleterious effects of climate scenarios, and crop models can be successfully used for regional assessments.     

气候变化对江苏省经济的影响研究

利用经济学上的“投入—产出”分析方法 ,结合气候变化对农业产量影响的计算机模拟系统 ,研究了当气候变化影响农业生产和产量时 ,江苏省农业产值的变化及与农业部门相联系的国民经济各个部门产出量的变化。考虑江苏省的经济发展速度和产业结构 ,预测了未来不同气候变化情景下 ,为使经济发展达到预期目标 ,社会需对各经济部门追加的资金投入量及各经济部门之间相互投入量的变化 ,提出了适应气候变化的相应对策。研究结果反映了国民经济各部门之间及部门与整体的相互联系 ,从而对制定区域经济平衡发展规划提供了理论依据和建议。     

Changes in mineral soil organic carbon stocks in the croplands of European Russia and the Ukraine, 1990–2070; comparison of three models and implications for climate mitigation

Three soil carbon models (RothC, CANDY and the Model of Humus Balance) were used to estimate the impacts of climate change on agricultural mineral soil carbon stocks in European Russia and the Ukraine using detailed spatial data on land-use, future land-use, cropping patterns, agricultural management, climate and soil type. Scenarios of climate were derived from the Hadley Centre climate Version 3 (HadCM3) model; future yields were determined using the Soil–Climate–Yield model, and land use was determined from regional agricultural and economic data and a model of agricultural economics. The models suggest that optimal management, which entails the replacement of row crops with other crops, and the use of extra years of grass in the rotation could reduce Soil organic carbon (SOC) loss in the croplands of European Russia and the Ukraine by 30–44% compared to the business-as-usual management. The environmentally sustainable management scenario (SUS), though applied for a limited area within the total region, suggests that much of this optimisation could be realised without damaging profitability for farmers.     

Looking beyond the average agricultural impacts in defining adaptation needs in Europe

The effects of climate change on agriculture are often characterised by changes in the average productivity of crops; however, these indicators provide limited information regarding the risks associated with fluctuations in productivity resulting from future changes in climate variability that may also affect agriculture. In this context, this study evaluates the combined effects of the risks associated with anomalies reflected by changes in the mean crop yield and the variability of productivity in European agro-climatic regions under future climate change scenarios. The objective of this study is to evaluate adaptation needs and to identify regional effects that should be addressed with greater urgency in the light of the risks and opportunities that are identified. The results show differential effects on regional agriculture and highlight the importance of considering both regional average impacts and the variability in crop productivity in setting priorities for the adaptation and maintenance of rural incomes and agricultural insurance programmes.     

Soil organic carbon dynamics of croplands in European Russia: estimates from the “model of humus balance”

The Model of Humus Balance was used to estimate the influence of climate effects and changing agricultural practices on carbon (C) levels in soddy–podzolic soils in the Russian Federation for the years 2000–2050. The model was linked with a spatial database containing soil, climate and farming management layers for identification of spatial change of C sequestration potential. Analysis of relationships between C, soil texture and climate indicated that compared with a business-as-usual scenario, adaptation measures could increase the number of polygons storing soil organic carbon (SOC) by 2010–2020. The rate of possible C loss is sensitive to the different climate scenarios, with a maximum potential for SOC accumulation expected in 2030–2040, thereafter decreasing to 2050. The effect is most pronounced for the arid part of the study area under the emission scenario with the highest rate of increase in atmospheric CO₂ concentration, supporting findings from the dynamic SOC model, RothC. C sequestration during the study period was permanent for clay and clay loam soils with a C content of more than 2%, suggesting that C sequestration should be focused on highly fertile, fine-textured soils. We also show that spatial heterogeneity of soil texture can be a source of uncertainty for estimates of SOC dynamics at the regional scale. Figures in color are available at     

Accounting for carbon stocks in models of land-use change: an application to Southern Yucatan

To assess the impact of land-use change on carbon stocks, we apply a new methodology, linking ecological and economic modeling, to southern Yucatan, Mexico. A spatial econometric multinomial logit model of ten land-cover classes is estimated (four primary forest categories, three secondary growth categories, an invasive species, and two agricultural land-cover categories), using satellite data on land cover, linked with census socioeconomic data and other biophysical spatial data from 2000. The analysis is novel in that it is the first attempt to link detailed satellite data on land use, with on-the-ground estimates of carbon stocks in a spatial econometric model of land use. The estimated multinomial logit model is then used with two scenarios of future economic growth (“low growth” and “high growth” changes in population, agricultural land use, market access, and education levels) in the region to predict land-cover changes resulting from the economic growth. The per hectare carbon (C) stocks in each land-cover class are derived from previously published estimates of biomass from field sampling across the study region. We consider aboveground-only, aboveground plus soil, transient and non-transient pools of carbon. These estimates are scaled up to the total area in each class according to the predictions of the model baseline and the two development scenarios. Subsequently, the changes in carbon stocks resulting from the predicted land-cover changes are calculated. Under the low growth scenario, carbon stocks declined by 5%; under the high growth scenario, losses were 12%. Including soil C, the proportional losses were lower, but the absolute amount lost was more than double (to 6 Tg C under the low and almost 15 Tg C under the high-growth scenario). This methodology could be further developed for applications in global change policy, such as payments for environmental services (PES) or reduction in emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD).     

Irrigation canals as tools for climate change adaptation and fish biodiversity management in Southern France

This paper is based on the interdisciplinary research conducted in the south of France that analyses the different economic, social and environmental roles played by agricultural irrigation canals. We argue that beyond their productive role, which is to supply farmers with water, they fulfil other environmental services and play an important role in the context of future climate change to face challenges of adaptation. We point up several ecosystem services provided by such canals, e.g. replenishing the groundwater table, the development of riparian vegetation and wet areas in the Mediterranean zone, tools for regulating flooding and drought, the bases for new cultural approaches to nature. Moreover, they play an important role in the maintenance of an ichthyological biodiversity that is indispensable for the persistence of natural ecosystem. Functioning as an ecological corridor, they display interesting capacities as refuges for certain fish species under stress. Indeed, they can potentially connect upstream and downstream zones over a continuum of more than 300 km and thus covering very contrasted climatic zones (alpine versus Mediterranean). For now, most of these services remain largely unknown and underestimated. However, they serve as assets for territorial development since they combine economic, ecological and social factors whose remodelling is becoming increasingly necessary in the face of climate change.     

The Hungarian national climate change strategy: its principles, assignments, and a special case study on maize production

Efficient protection against global climate change requires international emission reduction measures. Before these ones are decided, the individual states should make arrangements within their own scope of authority for preventing and mitigating the adverse impacts of climate change already in progress as a consequence of carbon dioxide emissions done so far. In spring 2008 Hungary—among the very first ones in the international stage—passed a middle-term National Climate Change Strategy, which determines both the national tasks in order to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and sectoral tasks of the adaptation to the ongoing climate change for the period of 2008–2025. As a concrete case study we investigated the possible impacts of the regional change in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, temperature and precipitation conditions of the Carpathian Basin on the cultivation conditions of maize, based on the downscaled IPCC 2007 scenarios. Temperatures of each scenarios increased significantly to basic run (1961–1990). This change suppressed the positive influence of elevated CO₂ on carbon assimilation. Serious depression may be waited during extreme hot days at Keszthely, Hungary.     

Adapting to climate change: an integrated biophysical and economic assessment for Mozambique

Mozambique, like many African countries, is already highly susceptible to climate variability and extreme weather events. Climate change threatens to heighten this vulnerability. In order to evaluate potential impacts and adaptation options for Mozambique, we develop an integrated modeling framework that translates atmospheric changes from general circulation model projections into biophysical outcomes via detailed hydrologic, crop, hydropower and infrastructure models. These sector models simulate a historical baseline and four extreme climate change scenarios. Sector results are then passed down to a dynamic computable general equilibrium model, which is used to estimate economy-wide impacts on national welfare, as well as the total cost of damages caused by climate change. Potential damages without changes in policy are significant; our discounted estimates range from US$ 2.3 to US $7.4 billion during 2003?C2050. Our analysis identifies improved road design and agricultural sector investments as key ??no-regret?? adaptation measures, alongside intensified efforts to develop a more flexible and resilient society. Our findings also support the need for cooperative river basin management and the regional coordination of adaptation strategies.     

An integrated decision-support process for adaptation planning: climate change as impetus for scenario planning in an agricultural region of Canada

The amount of information required to adapt to climate change is vast: downscaled climate projections, information on environmental impact, sectoral performance, external drivers, regional strategies, policies and practices. It can be argued that most of this information is accessible at the community/regional level, and thus, the important challenges to adaptation are not information gaps, but constraints created by fragmented planning decisions and a sector-by-sector basis for financial and human resource allocations. To strategically address this through adaptation planning, we developed and tested a place-based decision-making framework that creates an integrated platform for considering regional and global sectoral drivers in Eastern Ontario, Canada. Using available socioeconomic and biophysical information from regional authorities, alternative future scenarios were used to describe the range of socioeconomic futures and their vulnerabilities to climate change. We found that: (1) integration of diverse sets of available data (rather than narrowly focused sectoral assessments) helped identify shared common objectives (maximizing the long-term environmental, economic, social well-being within the region), (2) a high degree of congruence existed as the key drivers of change, irrespective of sector, (3) exploring the future scenarios highlighted shared regional priorities and helped identify adaptation priorities requiring more integrated regional planning.     

Using qualitative scenarios to understand regional environmental change in the Canadian North

This paper discusses the application of qualitative scenarios to understand community vulnerability and adaptation responses, based on a case study in the Slave River Delta region of the Northwest Territories, Canada. Three qualitative, graphic scenarios of possible alternative futures were developed, focusing on two main drivers: climate change and resource development. These were used as a focal point for discussions with a cross-section of residents from the community during focus groups, interviews and a community workshop. Significant overlap among the areas of perceived vulnerability is evident among scenarios, particularly in relation to traditional land use. However, each scenario also offers insights about specific challenges facing community members. Climate change was perceived to engender mostly negative livelihood impacts, whereas resource development was expected to trigger a mix of positive and negative impacts, both of which may be more dramatic than in the “climate change only” scenario. The scenarios were also used to identify adaptation options specific to individual drivers of change, as well as more universally applicable options. Identified adaptation options were generally aligned with five sectors—environment and natural resources, economy, community management and development, infrastructure and services, and information and training—which effectively offer a first step towards prioritization of “no regrets” measures. From an empirical perspective, while the scenarios highlighted the need for bottom-up measures, they also elucidated discussion about local agency in adaptation and enabled the examination of multi-dimensional impacts on different community sub-groups. An incongruity emerged between the suite of technically oriented adaptation options and more socially and behaviourally oriented barriers to implementation. Methodologically, the qualitative scenarios were flexible, socially inclusive and consistent with the Indigenous worldview; allowed the incorporation of different knowledge systems; addressed future community vulnerability and adaptation; and led to the identification of socially feasible and bottom-up adaptation outcomes. Despite some caveats regarding resource requirements for participatory scenario development, qualitative scenarios offer a versatile tool to address a range of vulnerability and adaptation issues in the context of other Indigenous communities.     

Impacts of climate change on land-use and wetland productivity in the Prairie Pothole Region of North America

Wetland productivity in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of North America is closely linked to climate. A warmer and drier climate, as predicted, will negatively affect the productivity of PPR wetlands and the services they provide. The effect of climate change on wetland productivity, however, will not only depend on natural processes (e.g., evapotranspiration), but also on human responses. Agricultural land use, the predominant use in the PPR, is unlikely to remain static as climate change affects crop yields and prices. Land use in uplands surrounding wetlands will further affect wetland water budgets and hence wetland productivity. The net impact of climate change on wetland productivity will therefore depend on both the direct effects of climate change on wetlands and the indirect effects on upland land use. We examine the effect of climate change and land-use response on semipermanent wetland productivity by combining an economic model of agricultural land-use change with an ecological model of wetland dynamics. Our results suggest that the climate change scenarios evaluated are likely to have profound effects on land use in the North and South Dakota PPR, with wheat displacing other crops and pasture. The combined pressure of land-use and climate change significantly reduces wetland productivity. In a climate scenario with a +4 °C increase in temperature, our model predicts that almost the entire region may lack the wetland productivity necessary to support wetland-dependent species.     

江西省县域农业碳排放的时空动态及影响因素分析

通过构建江西省农业碳排放测算体系，采用碳转化系数法对江西省县域农业碳排放进行了估算，并分析了2000~2010年江西省农业碳排放的时空动态及其影响因素。结果表明：（1）江西省农业碳排放总量从2000年的23085万t增长到2010年的29051万t，不同年份农业碳排放均主要源于化肥施用与农业机械使用；（2）全省农业碳排放量的空间分布呈现较为明显的集聚特征，主要年份高碳排放区均集中于鄱阳湖周边地区；碳排放强度多为Ⅱ级水平，空间分布上与碳排放量相比更为均衡；（3）江西省县域间农业碳排放的相对差异与绝对差异整体上均呈明显扩大的趋势；（4）生产效率、结构、劳动力等因素对农业碳排放有抑制作用，农业经济发展则促进碳排放量增加，农业碳排放还受社会、政策等影响     

Towards adaptation of agriculture to climate change in the Mediterranean

This study links climate change impacts to the development of adaptation strategies for agriculture on the Mediterranean region. Climate change is expected to intensify the existing risks, particularly in regions with current water scarcity, and create new opportunities for improving land and water management. These risks and opportunities are characterised and interpreted across Mediterranean areas by analysing water scarcity pressures and potential impacts on crop productivity over the next decades. The need to respond to these risks and opportunities is addressed by evaluating an adaptive capacity index that represents the ability of Mediterranean agriculture to respond to climate change. We propose an adaptive capacity index with three major components that characterise the economic capacity, human and civic resources, and agricultural innovation. These results aim to assist stakeholders as they take up the adaptation challenge and develop measures to reduce the vulnerability of the sector to climate change.     

How might adaptation to climate change by smallholder farming communities contribute to climate change mitigation outcomes? A case study from Timor-Leste,Southeast Asia

The agriculture industry is significantly exposed to the impacts of climate change, and is also responsible for contributing extensive greenhouse gas emissions. As a way of responding to both adaptation and mitigation challenges within the industry, this article examines how community-based climate change adaptation initiatives might provide mitigation outcomes in the agriculture sector in Timor-Leste. Beginning with an exploration of nation-wide institutional responses to climate change, the study utilises interviews, field observations and document analysis to examine an extensive community-based adaptation program in two districts in Timor-Leste focused on increasing the resilience of the agriculture sector and the livelihoods of poor rural farmers. Analysis of this program reveals a largely synergistic relationship between adaptation measures focused on land and water management and agriculture and their corresponding greenhouse gas mitigation potential, including co-benefits such as soil/atmospheric carbon sequestration, reduced emissions, soil nitrification and reduced use of inorganic fertilisers. Community-based adaptation programs in the agriculture sector have a significant influence on mitigation outcomes, which is often overlooked in community-based programs. The adaptation program in Timor-Leste has provided useful insights into the inter-relationships between adaptation and mitigation at the community level, which could be further supported and scaled-up in other Southeast Asia countries and elsewhere.     

Climate change and village adaptation impact on reliability of irrigation wells in China

This paper builds a water supply reliability econometric model to analyze climate changes and adaptation impact factors on water supply reliability of irrigation wells by using 100 villages’ three-year (2010–2012) field survey data of five middle and eastern provinces of China. The results show that long-run climate change factors, adaptation measures, village-level organizations of irrigation management, as well as extreme climate factors affect the water supply reliability of irrigation wells significantly. Meanwhile, there are significant differences impacting different crops and provinces. This paper suggests that agriculture meteorological disaster monitoring and warning systems should be strengthened by increasing irrigation facilities construction and maintenance, promoting reform of agricultural irrigation water management system, and developing various forms of peasant cooperation organization in order to improve agricultural production capacity to adapt to climate change.     

Climate-adapted conservation: how to identify robust strategies for the management of reindeer in Hardangervidda National Park (Norway)

This paper presents an assessment scheme that should help local conservation management in their adaptation to potential effects of climate change. It can be used for the identification of robust adaptation options at site level. The assessment scheme was applied to the management of Europe’s largest population of wild mountain reindeer (Rangifer tarandus tarandus) living in the arctic-alpine plateau of Hardangervidda in south-western Norway. At first, the last four decades (1964–2004) were analysed to identify climate- and non-climate-related driving forces affecting the population. In addition, regional projections of climate change were used to build scenarios for the potential effects on these driving forces until 2050. In the second step, the potential effects of climate change were classified according to the risk they pose to the conservation of reindeer in Hardangervidda. Based on this assessment, no-regret strategies for biodiversity management under changing climate conditions could be identified.     

Five reasons why it is difficult to talk to Australian farmers about the impacts of,and their adaptation to,climate change

Some recent funding programmes in Australia on climate adaptation have expected active engagement with farmers in research projects. Based on our direct experience with 30 farmers and their advisors, we list five reasons why it is difficult to gain traction with farmers in discussing the likely impacts of climate change on their farms and the possible adaptation options they should be considering in preparation for a future changed climate. The reasons concern the slow and uncertain trajectory for changes in climate relative to the time horizon for farm decision-making, when set against short-term fluctuations in weather, prices, costs and government policy. Farmers have optimism for ongoing technological progress keeping abreast of any negative impacts of climate on their production. As one moves from incremental to transformational adaptation options, biophysical research has less to offer because decisions become based more on business structure, portfolio management, off-farm investments and geographical diversification. Some farmers also doubt the intentions of climate change researchers and are wary of anything they may have to offer. We propose there is an actionable decision space where agricultural science and economics can contribute to meaningful analysis of impacts and adaptation to climate change by farmers. This will involve emphasising the principles of farm management rather than defining optimal farm plans; the use of scenario planning to explore possible futures in a turbulent environment for farming; a focus on short-term adjustments as a path to longer term adaptation; re-gaining the trust of some farmers towards climate change scientists through better communication strategies; and understanding the linkages between adaptation options and enabling factors and technologies.     

Assessment of the impacts of climate change and variability on water resources and use,food security,and economic welfare in Iran

Climate change influences the agricultural sector by reducing available water resources, thereby influencing income, consumer and producer surplus, and crop prices. So, it is necessary to have a comprehensive integrated method to measure the effects of these changes on natural resources and social conditions. The present study aims to use the positive mathematical programming method to discover the trend and conditions of groundwater resources, agricultural water use, food security, and economic welfare of the agricultural sector in Iran. To this end, data for the period 2000–2015 was used under four different scenarios of normal climate change, climate change, climate variability, and concurrent climate change The results showed that the mean agricultural water use will amount to 35,103.6, 26,533.8, 35,216, and 26,510.7 million m³ and the mean decline in the reserves of aquifers will amount to 4422.22, 11,165.6, 4438.25, and 11,267.4 million m³ under the scenarios, respectively. With respect to food security, the net farm revenue will be 314,560, 248,753, 315,427, and 248,574 billion IRR, respectively. The mean crop price per ton will reach 905.3, 1141.8, 904, and 1142.8 million IRR, respectively. The mean consumer surplus will be 172,107.7, 166,450, 172,024, and 166,403 billion IRR and the mean producer surplus will be 419,959.2, 395,380, 419,751, and 395,204 billion IRR, respectively. Based on the results, to reduce the adverse impacts of climate change on different studied aspects, it is necessary to change policymaking in the water and agricultural sectors, especially regarding the shift from traditional agricultural water allocation to its market-based allocation and to change planting pattern.