Land cover changes in the Lachuá region,Guatemala: patterns,proximate causes,and underlying driving forces over the last 50 years

Identifying the patterns of land cover change (LCC) and their main proximate causes and underlying driving forces in tropical rainforests is an urgent task for designing adequate management and conservation policies. The Lachuá region maintains the largest lowland rainforest remnant in Guatemala, but it has been highly deforested and fragmented during the last decades. This is the first paper to describe the patterns of LCC and the associated political and socioeconomic factors in the region over the last 50 years. We estimated spatial and temporal variations in LCC from a random sample of 24 1-km² landscape plots during three time periods (1962–1987, 1987–2006, and 2006–2011) and evaluated how they were related to some important proximate causes and underlying driving forces. During the study period, 55 % of forest cover disappeared, at an annual rate of 1.6 %. The deforestation rate increased from 0.6 % (during the first study period) to 2.8 % (last period), but there was very high spatial variation. Landscape plots located outside conservation areas and close to roads lost between 80 and 100 % of forest cover, whereas the forest cover in landscapes located within protected areas remained intact during the study period. The establishment of new human settlements, roads, and annual crops was the main proximate cause during the first period, but during the second and third periods, open areas were mainly created to establish cattle pastures. Because ~75 % of forest cover has disappeared outside the protected areas, the conservation of this biodiversity hot spot will depend on the expansion of protected areas, and the promotion of forest regrowth and alternative biodiversity-friendly land uses in the landscape matrix.     

Governing protected areas to fulfil biodiversity conservation obligations: from Habermasian ideals to a more instrumental reality

This paper considers the implications of the growing recognition of scale challenges, with a particular focus on those concerning the governance of protected areas (PAs), through a critical literature review. Two key scale challenges raised by PAs are considered: (1) the divergence of objectives between resource exploitation and biodiversity conservation; (2) the requirement to fulfil biodiversity conservation obligations. These are explored through a review of a UK marine PA case study which found that even though the state had adopted a controlling role that had created tensions by undermining the authority and livelihoods of some stakeholders, the partnership had been sufficiently strengthened to withstand these tensions through the instrumental development of ??bracing social capital??. Four conclusions for governance research with a particular reference to PA governance are drawn, and it is argued that presumptions based on Habermasian ideals should not constrain governance analyses, in that they should constructively incorporate the instrumental roles of the state.     

National and regional determinants of tropical deforestation in Colombia

Global tropical deforestation continues to occur at high rates despite political attention. National-level forest baselines are being established all over the world to guide the implementation of several policy mechanisms. However, identifying the direct and indirect drivers of deforestation and understanding the complexity of their interlinkages are often difficult. We first analyzed deforestation between 1990 and 2005 at the national level and found an annual deforestation rate of 0.62 %. Next, we performed separate analyses for four natural regions in Colombia and found annual deforestation rates between 0.42 and 1.92 %. Using general linear models, we identified several direct causes and underlying factors influencing deforestation at the national level: rural population density, cattle, protected areas, and slope. Significant differences in deforestation rates and causes were found across regions. In the Caribbean region, drivers of loss are urban population, unsatisfied basic needs, slope, and precipitation and four land use variables (illicit crops, pastures, cattle, and fires). In the Orinoco region, crops are the main driver of forest loss, and in the Amazonian region, deforestation is primarily due to fires related to the colonization front. Policy mechanisms will have to take into account regional patterns to successfully balance development and forest preservation in Colombia.     

Conservation perceptions and attitudes of semi-nomadic pastoralist towards relocation and biodiversity management: a case study of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Van Gujjars</Emphasis> residing in and around Corbett Tiger Reserve,India

This article examines the perceptions and attitude of the semi-nomadic pastoral community “Van Gujjars” on the use and conservation of natural resources in Corbett Tiger Reserve, India. In this research article, in-depth interview and questionnaire data (n = 340) about demography and perceptions were examined from both qualitative and quantitative information. Respondents have expressed their perception about their own territories, problems, attachments, positive or negative change that occurred during their stay in and around protected area. Respondents overall positive attitudes towards conservation scenarios despite high losses from wildlife while living around protected area suggest that they may support conservation if their livelihood needs are met. Most of the respondents support the concept of conservation, and some respondents have negative attitude towards management authorities, mainly because of restricted access to the forest resources. The study illustrates and suggests a number of options for the viability of resettlement of pastoralist community. A majority of respondents indicated that there is a need for public participation in planning and implementation of resettlement process. Resettlement of Van Gujjar community may be better if exercised with the consensus of all the stakeholders. Resettlement will provide better livelihood opportunity to the pastoral community and enhance the economic status of these people as the educational level increases in time, while also improving habitat recovery leading to better biodiversity conservation. Thus, resettlements could benefit both the pastoral people and the natural resources.     

Community attitudes toward forest conservation programs through collaborative protected area management in Bangladesh

The formulation of conservation policies with options for creating protected areas is significantly influenced by the social factors of the surrounding communities. Therefore, indigenous knowledge, attitudes and perceptions of the local communities need to be explored during the planning and implementation stages of conservation projects. A government-initiated experiment in co-management was conducted in the Rema-Kalenga Wildlife Sanctuary, Bangladesh. This paper analyzes the attitudes toward conservation by members of local communities living in and around the wildlife sanctuary. Training incentives on alternative income-generating (AIG) activities and allotment of agricultural lands were distributed among the Forest User Groups. It is of interest to policy makers and resource managers whether this technique leads to improved attitudes on the part of local people. Although there were different attitudes toward protected areas and conservation, overall, a favorable attitude of the respondents was observed. The opinions of respondents also varied based on factors such as village position, village dependency level on forest resources, ethnicity and gender. Increase in annual income resulting from the augmented skills by trainings on AIG activities and getting agricultural lands leased from the Forest Department contributed significantly to the variation in respondents’ conservation attitudes. It is suggested that eliminating inequity and inequality in incentive distribution, discovering and launching training on more need-based livelihood activities, and liberalizing the restriction of resource extraction from the protected area by fixing the harvesting limit would encourage the community to be more cordially and actively involved in the conservation efforts of the sanctuary.     

Biophysical suitability,economic pressure and land-cover change: a global probabilistic approach and insights for REDD+

There has been a concerted effort by the international scientific community to understand the multiple causes and patterns of land-cover change to support sustainable land management. Here, we examined biophysical suitability, and a novel integrated index of “Economic Pressure on Land” (EPL) to explain land cover in the year 2000, and estimated the likelihood of future land-cover change through 2050, including protected area effectiveness. Biophysical suitability and EPL explained almost half of the global pattern of land cover (R ² = 0.45), increasing to almost two-thirds in areas where a long-term equilibrium is likely to have been reached (e.g. R ² = 0.64 in Europe). We identify a high likelihood of future land-cover change in vast areas with relatively lower current and past deforestation (e.g. the Congo Basin). Further, we simulated emissions arising from a “business as usual” and two reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) scenarios by incorporating data on biomass carbon. As our model incorporates all biome types, it highlights a crucial aspect of the ongoing REDD + debate: if restricted to forests, “cross-biome leakage” would severely reduce REDD + effectiveness for climate change mitigation. If forests were protected from deforestation yet without measures to tackle the drivers of land-cover change, REDD + would only reduce 30 % of total emissions from land-cover change. Fifty-five percent of emissions reductions from forests would be compensated by increased emissions in other biomes. These results suggest that, although REDD + remains a very promising mitigation tool, implementation of complementary measures to reduce land demand is necessary to prevent this leakage.     

Indicators of deforestation in the Southern Brazilian Pre-Amazon

In recent years, Amazonian deforestation has become a question of global concern. Deforestation in Amazon is a complex phenomenon in nature and has been related to traditional agriculture expansion. In this work, land use, socioeconomic and conservation indicators, combined with statistical analysis, were used to understand forces associated with patterns of deforestation. This approach was applied in Southern Brazilian Pre-Amazon in Mato Grosso State, which represents an extensive rain forest-savanna ecotone, located in the south border of Amazon biome. Based on data from the last two agricultural censuses (1995/1996–2006), we compared agricultural expansion in this area and Mato Grosso state. Results have shown that 85 % of state deforestation was concentrated in Southern Pre-Amazon and was closely related to increase in number of cattle and pasture area. PCA results pointed that population (92 %), number of cattle (86.5 %), pastures (84.2 %) and tractors (78.4 %) were variables with highest positive correlation to deforestation. It showed that GDP contributes to an individual axis and has a low correlation to deforestation (37.8 %). Conservation units and indigenous reserves also contribute to a single axis and were negatively correlated to temporary crops area. Results revealed a significant reduction in production and commercialization of extractive products in the region, revealing that the main, almost only conservation policy in Mato Grosso remains the creation of Special Areas. We suggest that further studies are necessary to screen development alternatives to simple cutting trees down. It is important to diversify strategies for deforestation control, and development aspects must be more seriously considered to reach a sustainable deforestation control policy.     

Last of the wild revisited: assessing spatial patterns of human impact on landscapes in Southern Patagonia,Chile

Human activities are continuously expanding at a global scale and having an increasing effect on the remaining natural ecosystems in remote areas, such as the Magellan Region of southern Patagonia, Chile. In addition to extensive livestock holdings, aquaculture and tourism are advancing into formerly undisturbed areas, and insufficient information on the spatial scope and intensity of these alterations is available to inform and support conservation policies. The aim of this study was to spatially analyse the degree, scope and spatial distribution of anthropogenic alterations. Accordingly, two spatially explicit indexes, the degree of anthropogenic alteration (DAA) and human influence index (HII), have been applied. The results show a significant spatial overestimation of the remaining undisturbed natural areas. Despite low population densities and extensive conservation designations, a major share of the total area has been anthropogenically altered. Depending on the measure type, between 53.1 % (DAA) and 68.1 % of the area (HII) needs to be considered as influenced by human activity in some way. Our findings challenge previous studies by the Wildlife Conservation Society (WCS and CIESIN in Last of the wild project, version 2, 2005 (LWP-2): last of the wild dataset (Geographic), NASA socioeconomic data and applications center (SEDAC), Palisades, 2005). Their worldwide assessment of pristine natural environments indicated that a much smaller part of the Magellan region has been subject to human influence. The chosen methodologies represent an opportunity to detect and monitor human influence at small spatial scales, which has heretofore remained unnoticed. Because such alterations are becoming more frequent in remote regions, the assessment approaches presented here provide important information on human–environment interactions to support land-use and nature conservation policy design. In addition, small-scale structures and different types of economic activities are considered to support policies that can protect the remaining natural areas from human encroachment. Moreover, implications of the proposed methodology for biodiversity conservation policy are discussed.     

Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM): a review of progress in Portuguese implementation

Coastal areas are the focus of intensive urbanisation and tourism and are subject to changing physical processes causing significant natural environment modifications. It is in this context that the European Commission (EC) developed the Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) Recommendation and invited coastal Member States to produce national implementation strategies. Its general aim of sustainable coastal development was based on policy integration in cooperation with all stakeholders in an informed and participatory context. Portugal responded to the EC request by creating, approving, and adopting the national ICZM strategy. This paper focuses on Portuguese experiences putting the ICZM recommendation into practice and begins with a brief overview of community guidelines, national legislation, and implementation. Subsequently, governance mechanisms are discussed and best practice identified. From an assessment of Portuguese ICZM progress and lessons learned, conclusions and recommendations for improved effectiveness included: strengthening governance; improving sustainable decision-making processes supported by technical and scientific knowledge; and securing financial sustainability.     

Combining Conservation and Development on Private Lands: Lessons from Costa Rica

Privately owned parks continue to attract interest across the tropics for their ability to blend biodiversity protection with sustainable development. Despite rapid proliferation of these privately owned protected areas, the conservation community knows little about them. We interviewed owners of 68 private parks in Costa Rica to learn more about their contribution to that country's national conservation effort. Key findings include: (1) the total number of private reserves is estimated to be in the vicinity of 250; (2) reserves fell into a wide variety of categories, ranging from formal parks and ecotourism reserves to biological stations and hybrid reserves; (3) total nationwide coverage is approximately 63,832 ha, or 1.2% of the national territory; (4) reserves were protecting ecologically important habitat, particularly primary rain forest; (5) reserves were owned mostly by Costa Ricans; (6) reserves were used for a wide variety of activities, especially ecotourism and for the owners' personal enjoyment; (7) reserve owners' biggest problem was poaching of mammals; (8) reserves were protecting key corridor and buffer zone areas between and around larger national parks. Results from this study should help enhance our understanding of this little-known conservation and development tool. They should be of interest wherever biodiversity remains threatened and wherever new conservation and development partners are being sought - which includes most of the developing world.     

Governance objectives and instruments,ecosystem management and biodiversity conservation: the Chianti case study

The complex relationships between governance processes, ecosystem management and biodiversity conservation are receiving growing attention by the scientific community. The scope of research in this field is generally that of identifying main governance factors leading to success or failure in the sustainable management of ecosystems and biodiversity conservation, so to develop appropriate sectoral and intersectoral policies fostering sustainable use of natural resources. In this paper, a methodological approach is first presented and then applied to analyse the impacts of agriculture and rural policies on agro-ecosystem services and biodiversity conservation in the central hills of Tuscany, the Chianti area. This approach is focusing in particular on governance objectives and instruments used in the management of ecosystem services. A share-farming system based on multifunctional agriculture ruled Chianti until World War II. Then, after the abandonment of rural areas by share-farmers, governance objectives and ecosystem management were oriented towards the production of commodities such as wine and olive oil almost ignoring the provision of public goods such as soil erosion and water run-off control and biodiversity conservation. In order to achieve a more sustainable ecosystems management in Chianti, there is the need to develop a multifaceted governance strategy to reward appropriately the supplying of environmental goods and services by farmers.     

Drastic reduction in the potential habitats for alpine and subalpine vegetation in the Pyrenees due to twenty-first-century climate change

Recent climate change is already affecting both ecosystems and the organisms that inhabit them, with mountains and their associated biota being particularly vulnerable. Due to the high conservation value of mountain ecosystems, reliable science-based information is needed to implement additional conservation efforts in order to ensure their future. This paper examines how climate change might impact on the distribution of the main alpine and subalpine vegetation in terms of losses of suitable area in the Oriental Pyrenees. The algorithm of maximum entropy (Maxent) was used to relate current environmental conditions (climate, topography, geological properties) to present data for the studied vegetation units, and time and space projections were subsequently carried out considering climate change predictions for the years 2020, 2050 and 2080. All models predicted rising altitude trends for all studied vegetation units. Moreover, the analysis of future trends under different climate scenarios for 2080 suggests an average loss in potential ranges of 92.3–99.9 % for alpine grasslands, 76.8–98.4 % for subalpine (and alpine) scrublands and 68.8–96.1 % for subalpine forest. The drastic reduction in the potential distribution areas for alpine grasslands, subalpine scrublands and Pinus uncinata forests highlights the potential severity of the effects of climate change on vegetation in the highest regions of the Pyrenees. Thus, alpine grasslands can be expected to become relegated to refuge areas (summit areas), with their current range being taken over by subalpine scrublands. Furthermore, subalpine forest units will probably become displaced and will occupy areas that currently present subalpine scrub vegetation.     

Tourists‘ and Locals‘ Preferences Toward Ecotourism Development in the Maya Biosphere Reserve,Guatemala

Ecotourism has been identified as a low impact means to provide income generating opportunities that are complementary to nature conservation as well as the welfare of the local population. The Maya Biosphere Reserve in Peten, Guatemala is one of Central America's largest and most isolated protected areas. And although the area is contains a well-visited archeological site, it has not been developed for ecotourism. In this study choice experiments are used to analyze the preferences toward alternative scenarios of ecotourism of two important stakeholder groups: foreign tourists and educated local residents. Results demonstrate that these two populations of have unequal but similar preference orderings, especially toward: improved national park management and the presence of guides for wildlife viewing. These stakeholder groups had different opinions toward paved access roads and the presence of illegal colonists within the protected area. Both populations favored an entrance fee toward the absence of an entrance fee. These preferences were generally consistent across other socioeconomic indicators. Readers should send their comments on this paper to: BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.     

Accountability in climate change governance and Caribbean SIDS

The good governance of institutions and regimes requires accountability suited to the particular context of each institution and regime. The paper examines the nature of accountability in climate change governance using the Caribbean region as a case study. In doing so, the paper makes two original contributions. First, using insights from the environmental governance literature, it presents a conceptual framework that categorises the types (levels, relationships and mechanisms) of accountability in governance that can be used to test accountability. The accountability framework comprises two levels (internal/external accountability); four relationships (normative, relational, decision and behavioural); and four mechanisms or processes through which accountability can be exercised (certification, monitoring, participation by stakeholders in the overseeing of projects and self-reporting). Second, through an analysis of survey and interview responses from Caribbean climate change experts, it reports on the nature of accountability in climate change governance in the context of Caribbean Small Island Developing States. To do this, first it identifies the actors involved in Caribbean climate governance at the regional and national scales. Then, using the framework, it examines which levels, relationships and processes exist within and between climate governance regional institutions, international partners, government agencies, non-governmental organisations and the private sector for climate change adaptation and mitigation efforts. The paper draws two main conclusions: first, generally actors valued accountability as a good governance norm. Secondly, limited resources and the perception that using the accountability mechanisms will retard policy implementation led to low levels of accountability in practice. Finally, the study examined how accountability can be enhanced in the climate change sector by ensuring that each of the elements of the framework is operationalised for both state and non-state climate change projects.     

Biodiversity resilience in the Central Indian Highlands is contingent on maintaining and recovering landscape connectivity: the tiger as a case study

Corridors (variably called landscape linkages, connectors, and gateways) are expanses of a landscape that facilitate the flow or movement of individuals, genes, and ecological processes. Protected areas with their buffer zones and the corridors that connect them are cornerstones of modern conservation actions to maintain the biodiversity we have and restore what we have lost. Policy and governance to guide the establishment and management of protected areas and supporting buffer zones is well established in the Central Indian Highlands. A policy and governance structure to create the context and enabling conditions for corridor maintenance, creation, and recovery is emerging but is constrained by the reigning land-management paradigm that separates conservation from development rather than mainstreaming species and habitat conservation into the rural development agenda. Well-nourished, healthy human populations and healthy ecosystems are inextricably linked. The worsening ecological conditions in the Central Indian Highlands can trigger the emergence of a common agenda for an inclusive, caring, and environment-friendly mode of development. The alternative is the business-as-usual scenario: a continuation of worsening ecological conditions. Entry points through the biodiversity, agriculture production, resource extraction, and economic/social sectors to enable integrated sustainable landscape management are identified. These include deepening what it means to successfully conserve a species combined with explicit threat analysis for at-risk tigers and the landscapes that supports them; landscape scenario modeling to advance communication by synthesizing diverse forms of research and articulating and evaluating alternative socio-economic futures; and the use of the smart green infrastructure process as an approach to development rather than only as a way to mitigate environmental damage. Models are presented to scale up from isolated conservation interventions to collective impact that unites supportive government partners with individuals, NGOs, and economic interests to achieve viable long-term relationships in human and natural systems to value, maintain, and recover landscape connectivity.     

Effects of climate change on species distribution, community structure, and conservation of birds in protected areas in Colombia

Climate change is expected to cause shifts in species distributions worldwide, threatening their viability due to range reductions and altering their representation in protected areas. Biodiversity hotspots might be particularly vulnerable to climate change because they hold large numbers of species with small ranges which could contract even further as species track their optimal habitat. In this study, we assessed the extent to which climate change could cause distribution shifts in threatened and range-restricted birds in Colombia, a megadiverse region that includes the Tropical Andes and Tumbes-Choco-Magdalena hotspots. To evaluate how climate change might influence species in this region, we developed species distribution models using MAXENT. Species are projected to lose on average between 33 and 43 % of their total range under future climate, and up to 18 species may lose their climatically suitable range completely. Species whose suitable climate is projected to disappear occur in mountainous regions, particularly isolated ranges such as the Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta. Depending on the representation target considered, between 46 and 96 % of the species evaluated may be adequately represented in protected areas. In the future, the fraction of species potentially adequately represented is projected to decline to 30–95 %. Additional protected areas may help to retain representativeness of protected areas, but monitoring of species projected to have the largest potential declines in range size will be necessary to assess the need of implementing active management strategies to counteract the effects of climate change.     

Heading for the hills: climate-driven community relocations in the Solomon Islands and Alaska provide insight for a 1.5 °C future

Whilst future air temperature thresholds have become the centrepiece of international climate negotiations, even the most ambitious target of 1.5 °C will result in significant sea-level rise and associated impacts on human populations globally. Of additional concern in Arctic regions is declining sea ice and warming permafrost which can increasingly expose coastal areas to erosion particularly through exposure to wave action due to storm activity. Regional variability over the past two decades provides insight into the coastal and human responses to anticipated future rates of sea-level rise under 1.5 °C scenarios. Exceeding 1.5 °C will generate sea-level rise scenarios beyond that currently experienced and substantially increase the proportion of the global population impacted. Despite these dire challenges, there has been limited analysis of how, where and why communities will relocate inland in response. Here, we present case studies of local responses to coastal erosion driven by sea-level rise and warming in remote indigenous communities of the Solomon Islands and Alaska, USA, respectively. In both the Solomon Islands and the USA, there is no national government agency that has the organisational and technical capacity and resources to facilitate a community-wide relocation. In the Solomon Islands, communities have been able to draw on flexible land tenure regimes to rapidly adapt to coastal erosion through relocations. These relocations have led to ad hoc fragmentation of communities into smaller hamlets. Government-supported relocation initiatives in both countries have been less successful in the short term due to limitations of land tenure, lacking relocation governance framework, financial support and complex planning processes. These experiences from the Solomon Islands and USA demonstrate the urgent need to create a relocation governance framework that protects people’s human rights.     

自然保护区的建立与持续发展的关系

自然保护区的建立已被世界公认是一种保护自然资源最有效的方法之一。但是长期以来,人们把对维持生物种类的持续发展以及生态系统的完整性都归功于较为传统的封闭式保护。事实证明这已导致保护与持续发展长期处于矛盾状态而得不到解决。自从联合国教科文组织人与生物圈计划提出“生物圈保护区”的概念以来,打破了长期以来对自然保护区的封闭式管理。强调通过保护自然资源而发展和利用资源,并使这些资源能够持续发展。注重把自然保护与科学研究,环境监测、示范、环境教育与当地人民的参与结合起来。     

Analyzing the hydrologic effects of region-wide land and water development interventions: a case study of the Upper Blue Nile basin

In the drylands of the Upper Blue Nile basin, high climate variability and land degradation are rampant. To enhance adaptive capacity in the region, various soil and water conservation interventions have been implemented. Moreover, water resources development schemes such as the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam should be implemented by 2025. We modeled the effects of these interventions on surface runoff in the basin for both current and future (2025) basin conditions, using the runoff coefficient method in a spatially explicit approach. Under current conditions, we observed high spatial variability of mean annual runoff. The northeastern Blue Nile-1 sub-basin produces the highest mean annual runoff (391 mm or 10 × 10⁹ m³), whereas the northwestern Blue Nile-2 sub-basin produces the lowest mean annual runoff (178 mm or 0.2 × 10⁹ m³). The basin generates a total annual runoff volume of 47.7 × 10⁹ m³, of which about 54 % comes from cultivated land. The strong association between land use and topography masked the direct effect of rainfall on runoff. By 2025, total annual runoff yield could decrease by up to 38 % if appropriate basin-wide soil and water conservation interventions and the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam are implemented. However, the full effects of most physical structures will only last for 1 or 2 years without regular maintenance. The improved understanding of the dynamics of the Upper Blue Nile basin’s hydrology provided by the present study will help planners to design appropriate management scenarios. Developing the basin’s database remains important for a holistic understanding of the impacts of future development interventions.     

Developing REDD+ policies and measures from the bottom-up for the buffer zones of Amazonian protected areas

A key activity in Phase 1 of REDD+—the UN’s Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) forestry mitigation mechanism—is the development of policies and measures (PAMs) to define where and how emissions reductions and carbon stock enhancements and conservation will be achieved. This paper provides contextual data and information for the development of PAMs specifically for the buffer zones of protected areas in the Peruvian Amazon, sites where REDD+ has the potential to generate considerable social and ecological co-benefits. The study sites are the buffer zones of two national parks, Yanachaga-Chemillen (YChNP) in central Peru and Manu (MNP) in the south-east. Data were collected through smallholder household surveys (n?=?200), covering livelihood strategies, land use practices and preference rankings of five REDD+ criteria. The findings suggest that PAMs in buffer zones could realistically achieve an additional ~10?% conservation of remaining forest and between 25 and 70?% additional reforestation of non-forest areas on private lands. The paper argues that in areas where agricultural co-operatives exist, such as MNP, these should be engaged in national REDD+ PAMs and supported by an international NGO; in areas where smallholders operate individually, such as YChNP, international NGOs may be best placed to gain local trust and thereby raise participation rates. The environmental effectiveness of REDD+ conservation PAMs could be greater in areas of intense agricultural production, yet financial and technical support for reforestation may offer the most effective avenue for carbon mitigation in these areas.