冬小麦拔节后幼穗低温敏感期的鉴定

利用移动式人工霜箱,进行了模拟霜冻害的实验,研究分析了冬小麦拔节期幼穗抗霜力随幼穗分化进程的变化。结果发现,随着幼穗分化期的推进,冬小麦幼穗的抗霜力总体呈下降的趋势。从雌雄蕊末期发育进入药隔前期,幼穗的抗霜力骤然下降,在雌雄蕊分化期之前以及药隔期之后,抗霜力的下降趋势较为平缓。表明药隔期之后为冬小麦幼穗分化的低温敏感期。品种抗霜性的鉴定适宜在药隔期开展。该研究结果对于抗霜品种的筛选以及霜冻害的防御工作有一定的参考意义。     

冬小麦抗霜性与抗冻性的关系

拔节期霜冻害是制约冬小麦生产的主要因素之一。然而关于冬小麦拔节期抗霜性的鉴定工作,国内外的研究报导还很少。选取了13个起源地和春化特性不同的小麦品种,通过利用人工霜箱模拟田间自然霜冻发生过程的试验方法,在小麦幼穗分化进程中的低温敏感期——药隔期进行抗霜性鉴定。同时,对这13个小麦品种越冬期间的抗冻性进行了鉴定。最后对冬小麦品种的抗冻性与抗霜性之间的相关性进行了分析。结果表明:抗霜性与抗冻性之间不存在显著的相关关系。抗冻力较强的冬性品种,抗春霜冻的能力不一定就强;相反,抗冻力较低、发育进程快的早熟品种也可能具有较强的抗霜性。     

冬小麦品种抗霜力鉴定与霜冻害防御新对策

冬小麦发育进入拔节期和出现霜冻低温是形成其霜冻害的两个要素。霜冻低温的出现主要与气候因素有关。而拔节期的早晚则受初春气温、播种期和选用品种等多种因素的影响。影响品种抗霜力的重要因素是幼穗分化时期。品种抗霜力的鉴定必须在相同的幼穗分化期,建议在药隔期进行。品种的抗霜力还与第1茎节的长度有关,而与抗冻力和叶片可溶性糖含量的相关性不显著。通过研究,提出了下列抗霜对策:在把握地区霜冻温度出现规律的基础上,合理规划抗霜品种与避霜品种的布局;通过常规育种和基因工程手段,改良品种的抗霜力;通过遗传操作磷脂酶D基因,改良冬小麦的抗霜性。     

贺兰山东麓春季最低气温和霜冻精细化格点预报产品的检验

为了满足本地实际业务和服务需求,利用0.125°×0.125°欧洲中期天气预报中心ECMWF模式逐3 h最低气温预报产品和1 km×1 km逐时气温格点实况场资料,使用三种Kalman滤波方法订正贺兰山东麓144 h内逐3 h最低气温和霜冻1 km×1 km的格点预报,并对比检验订正前后四种产品的预报效果,检验结果表明:经过Kalman滤波方法订正后,贺兰山东麓最低气温预报误差和霜冻预报准确率及稳定性明显提高,三种Kalman滤波方法的平均绝对误差分别较ECMWF降低了0.76℃、1.04℃和1.12℃,霜冻预报准确率提高了3.2%、3.9%和5.3%;三种Kalman滤波方法对于1 400 m以上的高海拔山区订正效果显著,误差降低了2～5℃,霜冻预报准确率提高了10%～30%,且海拔越高,订正效果越明显,而对于1 200 m以下的低海拔平原地区,由于ECMWF模式预报效果较好,订正能力有限;相较而言,最优集成Kalman方法的订正效果最好。     

云南极端霜冻气候事件的气候特征及环流背景分析

利用云南124个气象站逐日最低气温和天气现象(霜)资料,计算最低气温低于-5℃的站点数占全省总站数的比例,定义站点比例超出25%的霜冻事件为云南极端霜冻气候事件。分析了云南极端霜冻气候事件的气候特征及环流背景。结果表明,云南极端霜冻事件发生前气温偏低,云量偏多;霜冻发生时夜间晴朗,辐射散热强烈,气温再度下降。这种霜冻属于混合霜冻或称为平流辐射霜冻。极端霜冻气候事件发生的主要原因之一是高空冷平流与底层冷高压控制下夜间晴空辐射冷却降温。发生时空气湿度较发生前小,空气相对干燥。     

低温胁迫对番茄光合特性及抗氧化酶活性的影响

根据番茄对低温的反应,于2010年10月-2011年3月间,设计了人工控制试验系统以研究低温胁迫(5℃,7℃,9℃,11℃)对设施番茄光合色素含量、最大光合速率、叶绿素荧光参数、抗氧化酶活性的影响,为设施番茄低温致灾气象指标的确定提供依据。结果表明:不同低温胁迫下叶绿素a,Chla/Chlb和最大光合速率均存在不同程度的降低,而叶绿素b和类胡萝卜素含量则有所升高。低温5℃处理3 d和7℃处理4 d后番茄最大光合速率均为负值,经过25℃恢复5 d后仍无显著升高;低温9℃、11℃胁迫下番茄最大光合速率随处理天数的增加而降低,且经过5 d的恢复处理后最大光合速率可以基本恢复至正常水平。叶绿素荧光参数分析表明,低温胁迫降低了PSII的原始光能转换效率和潜在活性,番茄的Fv/Fm,qP,ETR均显著降低,且随胁迫温度和胁迫时间的不同,Fv/Fm,qP,ETR的变化程度有所不同。不同低温胁迫使得番茄SOD,POD,CAT,MDA酶的活性均有不同程度升高,且温度越低,处理时间越长,升高幅度越大。因此,低温5℃处理3 d或者低温7℃处理4 d是番茄发生严重冷害的临界指标,该研究结果可为作物低温灾害防御及气象灾害预警提供参考。     

1961-2017年甘肃省霜冻演变特征及其对农业的影响

霜冻对农业安全影响巨大。为了提供防范霜冻危害的科学依据,利用甘肃省1961-2017年57个气象站温度资料和霜冻灾害资料,采用趋势系数、累计距平、Mann-Kendall(M-K)方法分析了不同等级霜冻日数的变化特征及其对农业的影响。结果表明:(1)甘肃省不同等级霜冻日数呈明显下降趋势,轻、中、重霜冻及早、晚霜冻日数分别以-2.3d·(10a)~(-1)、-1.8d·(10a)~(-1)、-1.2d·(10a)~(-1)、-1.2d·(10a)~(-1)、-1.1d·(10a)~(-1)的速率减少;2010-2017年减少最明显。(2)甘肃省各区域不同等级霜冻日数均呈现下降趋势,其中河西中部和甘南北部为快速减少区,陇南地区及陇东地区减少幅度较小。(3)近57a甘肃省呈晚霜冻结束时间提前,早霜冻出现时间推迟的趋势,且存在霜期最长的甘南地区晚霜冻结束时间提前最多,霜期最短的陇南地区早霜冻出现时间推迟最多的特点。(4)90年代末以后因≥10℃积温的快速增加及特色作物的播种面积大幅提高增加了作物受冻风险,霜冻造成的农作物受灾面积处于上升趋势。     

我国冬小麦霜冻灾害致灾因子危险度评价——基于作物生育阶段气象指标

霜冻是一种威胁农业生产的气象灾害,对其致灾因子危险度的研究,可为大尺度的作物霜冻灾害区划及农业保险提供依据。根据作物生长发育的阶段性原理,以全国751个气象台站56年的逐日最低气温资料以及作物生育期资料为基础,统计得到冬小麦各个生育阶段不同灾害等级（轻霜冻、中霜冻、重霜冻）的年霜冻日数,并计算出冬小麦全生育期内不同等级霜冻的发生概率,基于以上两项指标对冬小麦霜冻致灾因子危险度做出评价。结果表明,研究期内重霜冻年霜日最大值为129d,而轻霜冻和中霜冻霜日最大值分别为23 d和19 d,冬小麦受重霜冻危害时间较长;冬小麦霜冻的频发区、多发区、少发区从北向南依次分布,随着霜冻等级增加,频发区的面积差异不大,但多发区的面积减小、少发区面积增大;冬小麦霜冻灾害危险度等级最低的地区主要分布在低纬度的几个省份,如海南、广东、广西、云南等,危险度等级最高的地区集中在青藏高原地区。     

气象灾害对粮食生产的影响研究——以福建省为例

利用1984-2013年统计数据,分析福建省粮食产量和气象灾害的变化趋势。运用相关分析和敏感性分析,分别研究了5种气象灾害对5种粮食作物的影响程度,并在此基础上提出政策建议,为福建省粮食生产的持续发展和科学决策提供借鉴。结果表明:1气象灾害对福建省粮食生产具有负面影响;2对福建省粮食生产影响最大的气象灾害是台风,其次是风雹,受一般强度和高强度台风影响最大的分别是稻谷和小麦,而受一般强度和高强度风雹影响最大的分别是玉米和小麦;3气象灾害受灾率和成灾率每变动1%,福建省粮食单产分别变动6.35%和21.56%。稻谷、玉米、薯类、大豆均对一般强度旱灾和高强度风雹最为敏感,其中又分别以薯类和玉米为最,仅有小麦对一般强度和高强度的霜冻最为敏感。     

北方春小麦种植区小麦种植结构变化的气候依据与冻害风险

气候变暖引起我国冬小麦种植北界北扩西移,导致许多传统上种植春小麦的区域改为种植冬小麦。利用研究区1980-2012年28个气象站观测数据和全国格点数据,分析了北方春小麦种植区小麦种植结构变化的气候依据和种植冬小麦可能的冻害风险。结果表明,33a来,观测站点年平均气温和地面温度分别升高了1.3℃和1.98℃,年平均最低气温和地面温度分别升高了1.58℃和2.83℃;冬小麦生育期0℃的有效积温增加了340℃·d;日最低气温和地面温度0℃的日数和负积温分别减少了4.6,5.6 d/10a和57,233.8℃·d/10a;日最低地面温度-18℃的日数和负积温分别减少了6.7 d/10a和143.5℃d/10a;1月平均最低地面温度显著升高了2.54℃。这些变化使冬小麦种植区域向西北扩展。气候资源的显著变化为北方春小麦种植区小麦种植结构变化提供了气候依据。然而,影响冬小麦安全越冬的1月平均气温、1月最低气温和1月平均地面温度并没有显著升高,最低地面温度-18℃的冻害日数和积温从1997年前后的平均13d和1200℃·d又增加到2012年的20d和3500℃·d左右。适合种植冬小麦的区域范围有较大的不确定性。     

Cholera in Sudan: An account of an epidemic in a refugee camp in eastern Sudan, May-June 1985

In 1985 cholera has been a serious problem in the horn of Africa, particularly affecting the many famine victims and refugees in that region. In this paper the history of cholera in Africa is briefly summarized, as is the background to the current refugee situation in eastern Sudan. A cholera epidemic involving 1,175 cases in two adjacent refugee camps in eastern Sudan is described. In this epidemic there were thirteen inpatient deaths and thirty-eight known home deaths from cholera. The management of the epidemic is described in detail. Overall an average of 8 1. of intravenous fluid was used per case, a higher figure than was anticipated, probably because of the unexpected degree of vomiting and the shortage of trained nursing staff.
The relationship between cholera and malnutrition is explored and hypochlorhydria is suggested as the main reason for the increased susceptibility to cholera among malnourished populations. It was observed that severely malnourished adults and children appeared to nave less severe diarrhoea with their cholera, presumably because of reduced mucosal surface area and poor enterocyte function. Finally possible means of aborting cholera epidemics are discussed.     

A retrospective statistical review of deaths owing to migration through the southeasternmost land borders of the European Union,Greece 2000–14

The land borders of Evros, Greece, have been a common entry point for undocumented migrants on their way to Europe through Turkey. Adverse conditions, however, have resulted in many human casualties over the years. On the Greek side, 334 cadavers were retrieved between 2000 and 2014. This study provides a detailed forensic account of the humanitarian disaster in Evros to create an official scientific record of the situation. It showcases the gravity of the global issue of migration relating to health and mortality, and encourages communication and continual improvement of the approach and patterns of practices surrounding the subject. A retrospective statistical research review was conducted of border‐related fatalities between 2000 and 2014, assessing the age and gender of victims, the cause of death, the location of bodies, identification rates, and country of origin. Age ranged generally from 24 to 29 years, but infants and children were among the deceased.     

Complexity,continuity and change: livelihood resilience in the Darfur region of Sudan

Darfur farming and pastoralist livelihoods are both adaptations to the environmental variability that characterises the region. This article describes this adaptation and the longer‐term transformation of these specialised livelihoods from the perspective of local communities. Over several decades farmers and herders have experienced a continuous stream of climate, conflict and other shocks, which, combined with wider processes of change, have transformed livelihoods and undermined livelihood institutions. Their well‐rehearsed specialist strategies are now combined with new strategies to cope. These responses help people get by in the short term but risk antagonising not only their specialist strategies but also those of others. A combination of factors has undermined the former integration between farming and pastoralism and their livelihood institutions. Efforts to build resilience in similar contexts must take a long‐term view of livelihood adaptation as a specialisation, and consider the implications of new strategies for the continuity and integration of livelihood specialisations.     

Reflections on 40 years of Disasters, 1977–2017

This reflection, based on a keynote address to celebrate the fortieth anniversary of Disasters on 14 September 2017, begins by considering some of the prevailing assumptions that existed at the time of the journal's creation. Next is a summary of significant milestones during the past 40 years, covering major global trends, changing disaster impacts, and key developments in disaster risk management. Contrasting approaches in the first and fourth decade of the journal's history are then followed by examples of changes in terminology in the disaster field as an indication of shifting values. The paper goes on to explore the context of 2017, with observations of problem areas such as the loss of knowledge, failures to tackle the root causes of disasters, shortfalls in international assistance, and some negative attitudes. It closes by evaluating some current positive occurrences, including a reduction in casualties, sharing of experience, technological advances, and dramatic improvements in disaster warning.     

Fiji, land of tropical cyclones and hurricanes: A case study of agricultural rehabilitation

Tropical cyclones and hurricanes have a severe impact on the social and economic activities of affected communities. For small island nations in the Pacific region, the effects can be devastating because of their smallness. FQi and several other countries in the region are vulnerable to such disasters as they are situated in the zone where cyclones occur frequently.
During the last decade, the frequency of natural disasters and their adverse impact on die economic and social development of small nations like Fiji, has aroused awareness mat relief efforts must go beyond immediate "mopping up" operations to those which contribute to attaining longer term benefits through reconstruction and rehabilitation.
The paper outlines the 1985 agricultural rehabilitation program and discusses related issues and problems.     

Risk communication in emergency response to a simulated extreme flood

Risk communication in flood incident management can be improved through developing hydrometeorological and engineering models used as tools for communicating risk between scientists and emergency management professionals. A range of such models and tools was evaluated by participating flood emergency managers during a 4-day, real-time simulation of an extreme event in the Thamesmead area in the Thames estuary close to London, England. Emergency managers have different communication needs and value new tools differently, but the indications are that a range of new tools could be beneficial in flood incident management. Provided they are communicated large model uncertainties are not necessarily unwelcome among flood emergency managers. Even so they are cautious about sharing the ownership of weather and flood modelling uncertainties.     

Tsunami survivors' perspectives on vulnerability and vulnerability reduction: evidence from Koh Phi Phi Don and Khao Lak, Thailand

This paper presents the results of primary research with 40 survivors of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami in two communities: Khao Lak (n=20) and Koh Phi Phi Don (n=20), Thailand. It traces tsunami survivors' perceptions of vulnerability, determines whether residents felt that the tsunami affected different communities differently, identifies the populations and sub-community groups that survivors distinguished as being more vulnerable than others, highlights community-generated ideas about vulnerability reduction, and pinpoints a range of additional vulnerability reduction actions. Tsunami survivors most consistently identified the 'most vulnerable' community sub-populations as women, children, the elderly, foreigners, and the poor. In Khao Lak, however, respondents added 'Burmese migrants' to this list, whereas in Koh Phi Phi Don, they added 'Thai Muslims'. Results suggest that the two case study communities, both small, coastal, tourism-dominated communities no more than 100 kilometres apart, have differing vulnerable sub-groups and environmental vulnerabilities, requiring different post-disaster vulnerability reduction efforts.     

Epidemiology of tornado destruction in rural northern Bangladesh: risk factors for death and injury

The epidemiology of tornado-related disasters in the developing world is poorly understood. An August 2005 post-tornado cohort study in rural Bangladesh identified elevated levels of death and injury among the elderly (≥ 60 years of age) (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 8.9 (95 per cent confidence interval (CI): 3.9-20.2) and AOR = 1.6 (95 per cent CI: 1.4-1.8), respectively), as compared to 15-24 year-olds, and among those outdoors versus indoors during the tornado (AOR = 10.4 (95 per cent CI: 5.5-19.9) and AOR = 6.6 (95 per cent CI: 5.8-7.5), respectively). Females were 1.24 times (95 per cent CI: 1.15-1.33) more likely to be injured than males. Elevated risk of injury was significantly associated with structural damage to the house and tin construction materials. Seeking treatment was protective against death among the injured, odds ratio = 0.08 (95 per cent CI: 0.03-0.21). Further research is needed to develop injury prevention strategies and to address disparities in risk between age groups and between men and women.     

火灾场景中玻璃破裂行为研究综述

建筑物在火场中的结构响应问题中,门窗玻璃在火场中的热响应特性及破裂脱落是影响火灾发展的重要因素之一。通过事故案例分析了火灾场景中玻璃破裂脱落的危害性,指出了研究火灾场景中玻璃受热破裂脱落的意义,并对目前火灾场景中玻璃受热破裂过程和主要形态、玻璃的破裂机理和判据等的研究现状进行了详细的分析,总结了目前实验和计算机模拟的最新研究进展和不足,为今后进一步开展玻璃受热破裂脱落研究提出了若干建议。