指数平滑法在环境预测中的应用

指数平滑法是常用的一种时间序列预测方法，它在环境的预测方面有较强的实用性。文中简要介绍了该法的原理以及平滑计算，建模，预测和精度分析的过程，并以大同市７年降水的时间序列为例，对该法的应用效果进行了探讨。     

有限单元法及其在河流污染计算中的应用

介绍了应用有限单元法预测计算河道较平直，水流稳定河流中污染物浓度分布的二维平面数学模型，该模型具有应用方便，计算迅捷等优点，计算中无须先知道排放口污染物掺混浓度，能直观地反映有多个排放口的河流中的污染物浓度分布的情况。     

太湖某湖区高锰酸盐指数变化趋势的平滑处理

应用数理统计检验，移动平均法和指数平滑法，对太湖的某湖区九年的高锰酸盐指数平均值的数据进行了处理，发现统计检验在０．０５置信水平上无意义。移动平均法虽然有数学上的统计意义，但与实际变化趋势差距很大。而指数平滑法，所得的处理数据，其预测的趋势与实测的比较符合。     

基于地统计条件模拟的土壤重金属污染范围预测方法研究

常用的空间插值模型在土壤污染范围预测时存在平滑效应,导致高值区被平滑和低值区被高估,在划定污染区范围时也往往忽视了插值结果存在的偏差。以某土壤重金属污染区域为例,利用地统计条件模拟方法预测土壤中Cu、Pb的空间分布,在多次模拟结果的基础上估算污染概率,基于概率阈值确定污染区范围。研究结果表明,地统计条件模拟方法获得的土壤Cu、Pb模拟结果统计特征与调查样点的统计特征基本一致,且空间分布格局也相似。基于污染概率的污染区范围确定方法可以定量评估污染区范围预测的不确定性,对提高土壤污染治理效果与科学制定环境管理决策具有重要意义。     

浅水海湾排污扩散器初始稀释度的计算

流速和水深是影响浅水型海湾扩散器初始稀释能力的主要环境因素,其长时间序列的实测资料在现实中通常很难得到,而平面二维水动力模型的引入可为初始稀释度的计算提供必要和准确的水动力要素。通过建立二维水动力模型模拟受纳海域的流场,利用实测水文资料进行模型的率定和验证,模拟设计水文条件下附近水域的流场,然后提取排污口处的水深、流速和流向的时间序列,再利用近区模型计算任一时刻的初始稀释度,最后进行累积频率分析得到设计保证率下的初始稀释度。将该方法应用于杭州湾某排污扩散器初始稀释能力的评估,研究表明,利用远区模型为扩散器近区模拟提供环境水文要素,弥补了实际工程计算中缺乏实测水文资料的不足,并大大提高了近区模拟的计算精度。     

广东省道路交通噪声预测统计模型

为了建立符合广东省的道路交通噪声预测模型,在国内学者相关研究成果的基础上,对FHWA模型进行了深入分析,并根据道路交通噪声预测模型原理,引入等效车流量等概念建立了理论噪声预测统计模型。在此基础上,对广东省市政路和高速路的交通噪声实测数据进行多元线性回归分析,确定广东省交通噪声预测统计模型。经验证,在广东省交通噪声预测评价中该模型预测精度非常高。该研究思路与方法值得在全国各地区处理交通噪声环境问题的工作中加以推广与应用。     

GIM（1）灰色建模的变换方法及其应用

提高灰色预测精度的关键在于增加原始离散数据的光滑性。文章大介绍灰色模型的基础上，给出了寻找提高原始数据序列光滑度的变换的途径，并随文给出了一些新的变换，实例应用和误差分析充分展望了这一方法非常有效。     

基于中小城市空气污染指标的时间序列模型构建

以楚雄市空气污染指标为样本,采用多元统计分析方法求出了3种空气污染指标之间的偏相关系数,讨论了它们之间的关联性和各个指标的相关性。运用时间序列分析方法分别建立了SO2、NO2及PM10的动态时间序列模型,并进行了检验和预测。结果表明,模型对数据的拟合较好,精度较高,可以用模型对楚雄市未来空气污染指标进行预测和分析,并对该市的空气质量作出合理的评价。     

用欧几里德贴近度法和灰色关联度法评价大气环境质量

欧几里德贴近度和灰色关联度法均具有数据处理方式简单，信息利用率和精度较高，权值计算较为合理的优点，通过对应用实例的分析，比较了两种方法的不同点，在实际应用中应互为补充，互为参考。     

轴流通风机整机噪声估算的灰色模型

应用灰色系统理论建立了轴流通风机在较高转速下的整机噪声估算公式，介绍了ＧＭ（１，１）模型应用不等间隔序列的处理方法，表明该模型可从时间，空间序列分析推广到其它单变量系统分析。     

Chloroaromatic pollutants in mussels incubated in two finnish watercourses polluted by industry

Concentrations of different chlorinated compounds were measured in mussels incubated in two polluted watercourses, a river (the River Kymijoki) and a lake (Lake Vanaja) for four weeks in summer 1995. The sum concentrations of polychlorinated phenols (PCP) and biphenyls (PCB) were both about 1 μg/g lipid weight (lw) in Lake Vanaja mussels, while in the River Kymijoki mussels PCPs were non-detectable and PCBs were measured 120 ng/g lIw. The concentrations of toxic polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxin (PCDD) and dibenzofuran (PCDF) congeners ranged between <17 and 370 pg/g Iw in Lake Vanaja mussels and between <38 and 11,000 pg/g lw in the River Kymijoki mussels. Polychlorinated diphenyl ethers (PCDE) were detected in the mussels incubated in the River Kymijoki (0.4–1.1 ng/g Iw), but not in those incubated in Lake Vanaja. Polychlorinated phenoxyanisoles (PCPA) were measured 33 ng/g lw and polychlorinated phenoxyphenols (PCPP) 300 ng/g lw in the mussels incubated in the River Kymijoki. PCPAs were also detected in reference samples, which were sediment and pike from the River Kymijoki and Baltic salmon, seal and white-tailed sea eagle.     

Book review

The Pesticide Manual ‐ A World Compendium, 8th Edition, C.R. Worthing, Editor and S.B. Walker, Assistant Editor, British Crop Protection Council, BCPC Publications Sales, Bear Farm, Binfield, Bracknell, Berkshire RG12 5QE, England. 1987, 1100 pp., UK £50; Overseas £56. ISBN 0–948404–01–9.     

Patterns of volatile metabolites and nonvolatile trichothecenes produced by isolates of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Stachybotrys,Fusarium, Trichoderma,Trichothecium</Emphasis> and <Emphasis Type="Italic">Memnoniella</Emphasis>

We reported previously that trichodiene, a volatile trichothecene derivative, was produced by a Stachybotrys isolate, also known to produce highly cytotoxic, non-volatile, macrocyclic trichothecenes (satrotoxins). We investigated the relationship between the production of trichodiene and various non-volatile trichothecenes for several molds. Volatile metabolites were concentrated by adsorption on Tenax TA and analyzed by GC/MS, while non-volatile metabolites were separated by HPLC, derivatized and analyzed by GC/MS. Stachybotrys chartarum isolates producing macrocyclic trichothecenes secreted significantly larger amounts of trichodiene and other sesquiterpenes than isolates which only produced simple trichothecenes. The amounts of secreted trichodiene were relatively small in all cases. With the exception of Memnoniella, which excreted small amounts of sesquiterpenes, the other isolates produced varying amounts of sesquiterpenes, including trichodiene, as well as simple tricothecenes, no detectable trichodiene, but large amounts of griseofulvin derivatives. In Stachybotrys there is apparently a correlation between trichodiene and macrocyclic trichothecene production. In the remaining isolates, there was no simple relationship between trichodiene and non-volatile trichothecene synthesis. Trichodiene is produced in larger amounts by Stachybotrys isolates, which also produce satratoxins, but it will be difficult to utilize this metabolite to detect toxic isolates in buildings due to the relatively small amounts excreted.     

Observations on the influence of water and soil pH on the persistence of insecticides

Abstract

The pH‐disappearance rate profiles were determined at ca. 25°C for 24 insecticides at 4 or 5 pH values over the range 4.5 to 8.0 in sterile phosphate buffers prepared in water‐ethanol (99: 1 v/v). Half‐lives measured at pH 8 were generally smaller than at lower pH values. Changes in half lives between pH 8.0 and 4.5 were largest (>1000x) for the aryl carbamates, carbofuran and carbaryl, the oxime carbamate, oxamyl, and the organophosphorus insecticide, trichlorfon. In contrast, half lives of phorate, terbufos, heptachlor, fensulfothion and aldicarb were affected only slightly by pH changes. Under the experimental conditions described half lives at pH8 varied from 1–2 days for trichlorfon and oxamyl to >1 year for fensulfothion and cyper‐methrin. Insecticide persistence on alumina (acid, neutral and basic), mineral soils amended with aluminum sulfate or calcium hydroxide to different pH values and four natural soils of different pH was examined. No correlation was observed between the measured pH of these solids and the rate of disappearance of selected insecticides applied to them. These observations demonstrate the difficulty of extrapolating the pH dependent disappearance behaviour observed in homogeneous solution to partially solid heterogeneous systems such as soil.     

The chemical stability of formulations of some hydrolyzable insecticides in aqueous mixtures with hydrolysis catalysts

Abstract

The active ingredients in commercial formulations of malathion, oxamyl, carbaryl, diazinon, and chlorpyrifos diluted to “spray tank”; concentrations with buffered distilled or natural water of pH 4–9 were stable for at least 24 hr. Formulations of trichlorfon were not stable at pH 7 or above but disappearance rates were slower than for the pure chemical in homogeneous solution. Cupric ion was observed to be an effective catalyst for the hydrolysis of a variety of pure organophosphorus insecticides but did not catalyze hydrolysis of the active ingredients of the formulations examined. Increasing the dilution of the formulation increased the susceptibility of malathion, oxamyl, and carbaryl to hydrolysis.     

Organochlorine compounds in a three-step terrestrial food chain

The concentrations of 15 organochlorine chemicals (PCBs and pesticides) were studied in a Central European oak wood food chain system: Great tit (Parus major), caterpillars (Tortrix viridana, Operophtera brumata, Erannis defoliaria), and oak-leaves (Quercus robur). Juvenile tits receive organochlorines from the mother via egg transfer and, eventually to a greater extent, from the caterpillar food source during nestling period. The concentrations of PCB 153 (2,2′,4,4′,5,5′-hexachlorobiphenyl, the most abundant in this study) was found in leaf material at ca. 1 ng/g, in caterpillars 10 ng/g, and in bird eggs 170 ng/g on an average and on a dry mass basis.     

Radionuclides and trace elements in fish collected upstream and downstream of Los Alamos national laboratory and the doses to humans from the consumption of muscle and bone

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to determine radionuclide and trace element concentrations in bottom‐feeding fish (catfish, carp, and suckers) collected from the confluences of some of the major canyons that cross Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) lands with the Rio Grande (RG) and the potential radiological doses from the ingestion of these fish. Samples of muscle and bone (and viscera in some cases) were analyzed for ³H, ⁹⁰Sr, ¹³⁷Cs, ^totU, ²³⁸Pu, ^239,240Pu, and ²⁴¹Am and Ag, As, Ba, Be, Cr, Cd, Cu, Hg, Ni, Pb, Sb, Se, and Tl. Most radionuclides, with the exception of ⁹⁰Sr, in the muscle plus bone portions of fish collected from LANL canyons/RG were not significantly (p<0.05) higher from fish collected upstream (San Ildefonso/background) of LANL. Strontium‐90 in fish muscle plus bone tissue significantly (p<0.05) increases in concentration starting from Los Alamos Canyon, the most upstream confluence (fish contained 3.4E‐02 pCi g^‐1 [126E‐02 Bq kg^‐1]), to Frijoles Canyon, the most downstream confluence (fish contained 14E‐02 pCi g^‐1 [518E‐02 Bq kg^‐1]). The differences in ⁹⁰Sr concentrations in fish collected downstream and upstream (background) of LANL, however, were very small. Based on the average concentrations (±2SD) of radionuclides in fish tissue from the four LANL confluences, the committed effective dose equivalent from the ingestion of 46 lb (21 kg) (maximum ingestion rate per person per year) of fish muscle plus bone, after the subtraction of background, was 0.1 ± 0.1 mrem y^‐1 (1.0 ± 1.0 μSv y^‐1), and was far below the International Commission on Radiological Protection (all pathway) permissible dose limit of 100 mrem y^‐1 (1000 μSv y^‐1). Of the trace elements that were found above the limits of detection (Ba, Cu, and Hg) in fish muscle collected from the confluences of canyons that cross LANL and the RG, none were in significantly higher (p<0.05) concentrations than in muscle of fish collected from background locations.     

Radionuclides in pinon pine (Pinus edulis) nuts from los alamos national laboratory lands and the dose from consumption

Abstract

One of the dominant tree species growing within and around the eastern portion of Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM, lands is the pinon pine (Pinus edulis). Pinon pine is used for firewood, fence posts, and building materials and is a source of nuts for food—the seeds are consumed by a wide variety of animals and are also gathered by people in the area and eaten raw or roasted. This study investigated the (1) concentration of ³H, ¹³⁷Cs, ⁹⁰Sr, ^totU, ²³⁸Pu, ^{239, 240}Pu, and²⁴¹ Am in soils (0‐ to 12‐in. [31 cm] depth underneath the tree), pinon pine shoots (PPS), and pinon pine nuts (PPN) collected from LANL lands and regional background (BG) locations, (2) committed effective dose equivalent (CEDE) from the ingestion of nuts, and (3) soil to PPS to PPN concentration ratios (CRs). Most radionuclides, with the exception of ³H in soils, were not significantly higher (p < 0.10) in soils, PPS, and PPN collected from LANL as compared to BG locations, and concentrations of most radionuclides in PPN from LANL have decreased over time. The maximum net CEDE (the CEDE plus two sigma minus BG) at the most conservative ingestion rate (10 lb [4.5 kg]) was 0.0018 mrem (0.018 μSv); this is far below the International Commission on Radiological Protection (all pathway) permissible dose limit of 100 mrem (1000 μSv). Soil‐to‐nut CRs for most radionuclides were within the range of default values in the literature for common fruits and vegetables.     

Degradation and sorption of imidacloprid in dissimilar surface and subsurface soils

Degradation and sorption/desorption are important processes affecting the leaching of pesticides through soil. This research characterized the degradation and sorption of imidacloprid (1-[(6-chloro-3-pyridinyl)-methyl]-N-nitro-2-imidazolidinimine) in Drummer (silty clay loam) and Exeter (sandy loam) surface soils and their corresponding subsurface soils using sequential extraction methods over 400 days. By the end of the incubation, approximately 55% of imidacloprid applied at a rate of 1.0 mg kg^?1 degraded in the Exeter sandy loam surface and subsurface soils, compared to 40% of applied imidacloprid within 300 days in Drummer surface and subsurface soils. At the 0.1 mg kg^?1 application rate, dissipation was slower for all four soils. Water-extractable imidacloprid in Exeter surface soil decreased from 98% of applied at day 1 to > 70% of the imidacloprid remaining after 400 d, as compared to 55% in the Drummer surface soil at day 1 and 12% at day 400. These data suggest that imidacloprid was bioavailable to degrading soil microorganisms and sorption/desorption was not the limiting factor for biodegradation. In subsurface soils > 40% of ¹⁴C-benzoic acid was mineralized over 21 days, demonstrating an active microbial community. In contrast, cumulative ¹⁴CO₂ was less than 1.5% of applied ¹⁴C-imidacloprid in all soils over 400 d. Qualitative differences in the microbial communities appear to limit the degradation of imidacloprid in the subsurface soils.     

Biochemical interaction of six op delayed neurotoxicants with several neurotargets

Abstract

Five organophosphorous insecticides: Leptophos, EPN, Cyano‐fenphos, trichloronate and salithion proved to cause irreversible ataxia not only to chicken but also to mice and sheep. TOCP was included as a reference. Cyanofenphos blocked the catecholamine B‐receptor binding activity with ³H‐norepinephrine at a level similar to that of the specific inhibitor propranolol in the mouse heart preparation. In the lamb heart preparation, the B‐receptor was more sensitive to Leptophos, salithion and TOCP than to propranolol. The six compounds and their oxons were screened for their in‐vitro inhibition to monamine oxidase (MAO), acetyl cholinesterase (AChE) and neurotoxic esterase (NTE) in the brain of either mouse, lamb or chicken. It is believed that their AChE inhibition stands for their acute toxicity, while NTE inhibition is responsible for their paralytic ataxia.