LAKE LEVEL CONTROL AND MANAGEMENT - A CASE STUDY1

ABSTRACT: The frequent high water levels in Chisago Chain of Lakes, located in east-central Minnesota, have caused extensive flood damages. Recent floods raised the concern of the local property owners and they pressured the Chisago County Board of Managers to initiate a study of alternative lake control levels. A study was carried out to identify potential flood control alternatives, screen out the most promising feasible alternatives, and recommend the most cost-effective flood control measure. Several flood control alternatives were considered - eight of them were analyzed and evaluated in detail. A statistical method was used to estimate the expected annual flood damages under existing and future conditions. The effect of all proposed control measures on the annual flood damage reductions (benefits) were determined. Detailed benefit/cost analyses were carried out to evaluate the economic feasibility of alternatives. The effect of potential flood control measures on the environment was also studied. The economic analysis of the most cost-effective alternative did not strongly support artificial lake level control, therefore the decision-making authorities were even more firm in their position to maintain the present condition and chose the Null Alternative as the most suitable alternative.     

FLOOD PROOFING DECISIONS WITH UNCERTAIN EVENTS1

ABSTRACT: The addition of flood proofing to other (structural and non-structural) flood damage reduction measures broadens the choice among existing alternatives for decision makers and consequently enables the possibility of improved expected net benefits from an overall flood damage reduction scheme. Planners are interested in more than just expected values of net benefits, however. The inherent riskiness of various alternative plans must be considered as well. Therefore, a partial equilibrium framework is specified for purposes of estimating means and variances of a measure of net benefits from flood proofing. The model is applied to selected communities in the Connecticut River Basin and sample computer results are provided.     

Consumer Attitudes Towards Alternatives to Piglet Castration Without Pain Relief in Organic Farming: Qualitative Results from Germany

In order to avoid the occurrence of boar taint, castration of piglets without pain relief is a common practice in pork production. Due to increasing animal welfare concerns, the practice will be banned in organic agriculture from 2012 and alternative methods will have to be implemented. An important factor for the successful implementation of such alternatives is consumers’ acceptance of the methods, as consumers’ daily buying decisions are crucial to the further development of the organic pork sector. Thus, this paper explores organic consumers’ attitudes towards piglet castration without pain relief and three alternative methods and examines which aspects of these alternatives are important to consumers of organic products. The analysis of nine focus group discussions in Germany conducted in fall 2009 and involving a total of 89 participants, shows that castration without pain relief in organic farming was unacceptable for participants. Animal welfare, food safety, taste, and costs were principal aspects that participants used to assess the three alternatives. Participants had mainly favorable attitudes towards castration with anesthesia and analgesia. Although participants had some concerns regarding the fattening of boars (taste), there was openness towards this alternative due to its perceived naturalness. Immunocastration was seen quite critically because participants feared that this alternative might lead to (hormone) residues in meat. Overall, the results suggest that fattening of boars and castration with anesthesia and analgesia could be acceptable alternatives to consumers of organic pork.     

MULTI-CRITERION RANKING OF ALTERNATIVE LONG-RANGE WATER RESOURCE SYSTEMS1

ABSTRACT The definition and comparison of alternative water resource systems designed to meet long-range goals (say 60 years) is illustrated by a case study in Hungary. A comprehensive cost-effectiveness approach is adapted to define goals, specifications, criteria, alternatives and their capabilities. Specifications include demands given in probabilistic terms. The comparison of alternative systems is based on 12 criteria, one of which is the balance between total energy consumed and peak energy produced. Important factors involving social elements, such as flood protection and land and forest use, are described both as monetary quantities and as qualitative appreciations. Five alternative systems are defied involving flat land reservoirs, pumped storage reservoirs, interbasin transfer, and conjunctive use of surface and ground water. International cooperation is then used to rank systems and reduce the problem to a tradeoff between only two alternatives.     

EFFECT OF URBANIZATION ON ALTERNATIVE FLOOD CONTROL STRATEGIES1

ABSTRACT: The effect of urbanization on alternative flood control strategies was investigated for a large developing watershed in Texas. Urban and rural areas were modeled separately using a geographically-referenced data base and the U.S. Corps of Engineers HEC-1 and HEC-2 programs, and results yielded a double-peaked hydrograph. Hydrograph input parameters were modified to predict the effects of a wide range of management alternatives including on-site storage, reservoirs, channelization, and development controls. Results indicated a combination of alternatives is required to protect existing and future developments.     

A Faster and Economical Approach to Floodplain Mapping Using Soil Information

Flood inundation maps play a key role in assessment and mitigation of potential flood hazards. However, owing to high costs associated with the conventional flood mapping methods, many communities in the United States lack flood inundation maps. The objective of this study is to develop and examine an economical alternative approach to floodplain mapping using widely available soil survey geographic (SSURGO) database. In this study, floodplain maps are developed for the entire state of Indiana, and some counties in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Washington states by identifying flood‐prone soil map units based on their attributes. For validation, the flood extents obtained from SSURGO database are compared with the extents from other floodplain maps such as the Federal Emergency Management Agency issued flood insurance rate maps (FIRMs), flood extents observed during past floods, and flood maps derived using digital elevation models. In general, SSURGO‐based floodplain maps (SFMs) are largely in agreement with other flood inundation maps. Specifically, the floodplain extents from SFMs cover 78‐95% area compared to FIRMs and observed flood extents. Thus, albeit with a slight loss in accuracy, the SSURGO approach offers an economical and fast alternative for floodplain mapping. In particular, it has potentially high utility in areas where no detailed flood studies have been conducted.     

MULTICRITERION DECISION MAKING FOR FLOOD CONTROL OPERATIONS: THEORY AND APPLICATIONS1

ABSTRACT: Flood control operations are generally complex in nature, as they are often associated with a large quantity of uncertain factors in combination of noncommensurable criteria. It has been found that the use of fuzzy set theory coupled with multicriterion decision making (MCDM) methods is very promising. In this paper, a multicriterion fuzzy recognition model is established for flood control operations. A subjective preference and iterative weights method is proposed for weight assessment. First, an initial solution of criteria weights, which is directly analyzed from the selected alternatives, is obtained by using the proposed fuzzy recognition model. Then, according to their knowledge related to real time flood operations, operators may modify the initial weights if necessary. When the relative membership grades of alternatives belonging to all rankings are fixed, a defuzzification equation is used to calculate the rank feature value vector. Based on the rank feature value vector, one can evaluate the alternative set. Two flood operation cases are provided to illustrate the application of the proposed model. With the incorporation of the operator's knowledge related to flood operations, the proposed model is flexible in giving weights and realizes more practical flood control operations.     

FUZZY ITERATION METHODOLOGY FOR RESERVOIR FLOOD CONTROL OPERATION1

ABSTRACT: Reservoir flood control is operated in real time so finding the optimal solution is unnecessary since it may not be practical. The key to reservoir flood control operation is quickly generating some feasible and effective alternatives and then selecting one among them. A fuzzy iteration methodology, which gives the objective weight and the relative membership degree of alternatives at the same time, is presented. Since the weight and relative membership degree are directly acquired from the recommended alternatives provided by decision makers, the results are more reasonable and realistic. Besides, the difficulty in giving weights is also avoided. With the aid of a robust and flexible decision support system, the effectiveness of decision making can be improved.     

A METHODOLOGY FOR SELECTING AMONG WATER QUALITY ALTERNATIVES1

While reservoirs are constructed to regulate stream flows for several beneficial purposes including flood control, water supply, hydroelectric power, irrigation and low flow augmentation and to enhance water based recreation, they create problems of water quality that offer a new dimension to the task of efficient operation. Among other potential deleterious effects, thermal stratification in reservoirs inhibits mixing and causes a deterioration of dissolved oxygen levels in lower layers. Several investigators have examined the thermal properties of reservoirs and resultant effects upon dissolved oxygen and have suggested alternative schemes for alleviating detrimental effects (1,2,3,4,5). The objective of this paper is to outline a methodology for evaluating some of these alternatives in a river-reservoir system where downstream water quality control is one of several purposes to be served by the reservoir.     

A PROBABILISTIC BENEFIT-COST ANALYSIS OF A ZONING PROGRAM FOR FLOOD PLAINS1

ABSTRACT: Various techniques, one of which is zoning, are used to control the extent of flood damage. The benefit-cost analysis of zoning programs must take into account the random nature of flooding. This paper outlines a method for determining not only the expected value of the benefit-cost ratio, but also the probability of such a zoning program being profitable. It also presents an application of the method to the assessment of the Outaouais Regional Community zoning program.     

Modeling the Influence of Dynamic Zoning of Forest Harvesting on Ecological Succession in a Northern Hardwoods Landscape

Dynamic zoning (systematic alteration in the spatial and temporal allocation of even-aged forest management practices) has been proposed as a means to change the spatial pattern of timber harvest across a landscape to maximize forest interior habitat while holding timber harvest levels constant. Simulation studies have established that dynamic zoning strategies produce larger tracts of interior, closed canopy forest, thus increasing the value of these landscapes for interior-dependent wildlife. We used the simulation model LANDIS to examine how the implementation of a dynamic zoning strategy would change trajectories of ecological succession in the Great Divide Ranger District of the Chequamegon–Nicolet National Forest in northern Wisconsin over 500 years. The components of dynamic zoning strategies (number of zones in a scenario and the length of the hiatus between successive entries into zones) and their interaction had highly significant impacts on patterns of forest succession. Dynamic zoning scenarios with more zones and shorter hiatus lengths increased the average amount of the forest dominated by early successional aspen (Populus sp.). Dynamic zoning scenarios with two zones produced more late successional mature northern hardwoods than scenarios with four zones. Dynamic zoning scenarios with very short (30 years) or very long (120 years) hiatus lengths resulted in more late successional mature northern hardwoods than scenarios with intermediate hiatus lengths (60 and 90 years). However, none of the dynamic scenarios produced as much late successional mature northern hardwoods as the static alternative. Furthermore, the amounts of all habitat types in all dynamic zoning scenarios fluctuated greatly in time and space relative to static alternatives, which could negatively impact wildlife species that require a stable amount of habitat above some minimum critical threshold. Indeed, implementing dynamic zoning scenarios of different designs would have both positive and negative effects on wildlife species and for other objectives of forest management.     

Linking linear programming and spatial simulation models to predict landscape effects of forest management alternatives

Forest management planners require analytical tools to assess the effects of alternative strategies on the sometimes disparate benefits from forests such as timber production and wildlife habitat. We assessed the spatial patterns of alternative management strategies by linking two models that were developed for different purposes. We used a linear programming model (Spectrum) to optimize timber harvest schedules, then a simulation model (HARVEST) to project those schedules in a spatially explicit way and produce maps from which the spatial pattern of habitat could be calculated. We demonstrated the power of this approach by evaluating alternative plans developed for a national forest plan revision in Wisconsin, USA. The amount of forest interior habitat was inversely related to the amount of timber cut, and increased under the alternatives compared to the current plan. The amount of edge habitat was positively related to the amount of timber cut, and increased under all alternatives. The amount of mature northern hardwood interior and edge habitat increased for all alternatives, but mature pine habitat area varied. Mature age classes of all forest types increased, and young classes decreased under all alternatives. The average size of patches (defined by age class) generally decreased. These results are consistent with the design goals of each of the alternatives, but reveal that the spatial differences among the alternatives are modest. These complementary models are valuable for quantifying and comparing the spatial effects of alternative management strategies.     

Evaluation of Lake Modification Alternatives for Lake Sihwa, Korea

After the construction of an embankment at the Bay of Sihwa in Korea, a lake of 56.5 km² surface area and 330 million m³ volume was created. Because of rapid socioenvironmental changes and the lowering of water quality in Lake Sihwa, various external measures have been proposed and some of them are being implemented. In this paper, we examine two alternatives for in-lake modification: one alternative is zoning of the lake by constructing two submerged dams and the other is channeling of the lake through reclamation. Water quality modeling was conducted for both alternatives to assess their effects. Results of the modeling revealed that the reduction of the lake size through two different approaches, when accompanied with other external measures, would improve the water quality, but to different degrees. The zonation is expected to improve the freshwater quality up to the level supplying 45 million m³ of water per year for agricultural use. The quality of channeled water would be inappropriate for agricultural use, but suitable for outdoor activities such as recreation or fishing regardless of reclamation plans considered.     

A PROPOSED METHOD OF EVALUATING FLOOD DAMAGES TO HISTORIC HOMES - AN EXTERNALITY APPROACH1

ABSTRACT: Traditional procedures for evaluating flood damages to residential dwellings do not reflect intrinsic values when applied to historic homes. Such structures are worth more than that determined by using depth-damage curves provided by insurance companies who assess damage values based upon current labor and material costs. The evaluation of the worth of a historic home and subsequent damages due to inundation can be regarded as a problem of externalities. An assessment technique reflecting historic amenities or what has been termed replication cost is proposed in this paper. Replication costs would have widespread use not only in solving flood dammage problems, but also in any study where historic entities are subject to damages from catastrophies such as hurricanes, soil and beach erosion, and increasing urbanization. If adopted as a technique, it would enhance and preserve the ever-decreasing enclaves of historic homes and neighborhoods.     

Demonstrating Floodplain Uncertainty Using Flood Probability Maps1

Abstract: The U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) flood maps depict the 100‐year recurrence interval floodplain boundary as a single line. However, because of natural variability and model uncertainty, no floodplain extents can be accurately defined by a single line. This article presents a new approach to floodplain mapping that takes advantage of accepted methodologies in hydrologic and hydraulic analysis while including the effects of uncertainty. In this approach, the extents of computed floodplain boundaries are defined as a continuous map of flood probabilities, rather than as a single line. Engineers and planners can use these flood probability maps for viewing the uncertainty of a floodplain boundary at any recurrence interval. Such a flood probability map is a useful tool for visualizing the uncertainty of a floodplain boundary and represents greater honesty in engineering technologies that are used for flood mapping. While institutional barriers may prevent adoption of such definitions for use in graduated flood insurance rates (as most other insurance industries use to account for relative risks), the methods open the door technically to such a reality.     

Public Perception of Flood Hazard in the Niger Delta,Nigeria

Summary Our study had the aim of understanding how floodplain dwellers regard the risk of flooding. About 500 questionnaires were administered to landowners in the selected settlements in the study area using systematic random sampling. The results of analysis show, among other things, that the population regards most important the causes of floods as heavy, prolonged rainfall and river overflow. Nevertheless, they have little knowledge of the frequency of severe floods, and flood alleviation schemes. Most flood victims do not get compensation or relief during flood disaster, and the reason why they remain in the study area is influenced by their occupations, especially fishing, subsistence agriculture, and the presence of crude oil in the region which has attracted many migrants who cannot afford the high cost of accommodation and are therefore forced to live in vulnerable areas of the floodplain. Finally, the study concludes that flood control in the region needs the cooperation of government, community efforts and an enlightenment programmes through environmental education and mass media.     

NATIONAL FLOOD INSURANCE AND THE COASTAL ZONE: A CASE STUDY OF HURRICANE ELOISE1

ABSTRACT: This paper presents evidence that currently published flood insurance premiums may be insufficient to cover expected losses in coastal areas subject to hurricane. The problems of developing flood premiums in coastal zones are discussed and Federal Insurance Administration (FIA) reaction to these problems analyzed. Flood losses in the coastal zone of Bay County, Florida due to hurricane Eloise are compared with losses which would be predicted by the FIA. This comparison raises important questions concerning the adequacy of flood premiums in coastal zones and the undesirable indirect effects that underpricing flood risk will have on location decisions in the coastal floodplain.     

FLOODPLAIN ANALYSIS,SIMPLIFIED VS. COMPLEX METHODS: A CASE STUDY1

ABSTRACT: The accurate and reliable determination of floodplains, floodway boundaries, and flood water elevations are integral requirements of Flood Insurance Studies. These studies are intended to be used for determining the flood insurance rates. Therefore, the accuracy of the water surface profiles are important. To ensure the high degree of accuracy, the HUD Flood Insurance Administration has developed standards which must be met in the analysis of water surface profiles. A somewhat less accurate study is required for the preparation of Flood Emergency Plans. As part of the flood insurance studies of eight locations in the State of North Dakota, various flood hazard and floodplain information reports were reviewed. The hydrologic and hydraulic analyses, especially the computation of the 100-year water surface profiles, were completed using both simplified and complex hydraulic computation methods. Significant differences were found (1 to 3 feet) between the profiles computed by the SCS simplified method and those computed by HEC-2 computer program. However, the floodplain boundaries determined by both methods were found to be similar. Approximate methods are recommended for rapid determination of the floodplain, floodway boundaries, and inundation area mapping, while sophisticated computer programs (HEC-2) are recommended to be used for developing areas where the 100-year flood elevation has a significant impact on the cost of land development.     

LEAST COST SOLUTIONS TO THE PROBLEM OF EFFLUENT ABATEMENT IN URBAN SYSTEMS1

ABSTRACT: There is a significant misallocation of resources in the construction and operation of municipal sewage treatment systems in North America. Central to this misallocation is the inadequate evaluation of alternative treatment technologies, alternative distributions of responsibility for waste treatment, and alternative mechanisms for inducing compliance with treatment system requirements. Perverse incentives in the current institutional structure limit the scope of alternatives examined by decisionmakers. Determination of the least cost solution to the problem of urban effluent abatement requires mathematical modeling for the delineation of optimal treatment strategies on a system wide basis. The adoption of modern methods of systems analysis can identify significant opportunities for the reduction of economic waste in the treatment of municipal sewage.