Do industrial incidents in the chemical sector create equity market contagion?

IntroductionThis paper examines a number of US chemical industry incidents and their effect on equity prices of the incident company. Furthermore, this paper then examines the contagion effect of this incident on direct competitors.MethodEvent study methodology is used to assess the impact of chemical incidents on both incident and competitor companies.ResultsThis paper finds that the incident company experiences deeper negative abnormal returns as the number of injuries and fatalities as a result of the incident increases. The equity value of the competitor companies suffer substantial losses stemming from contagion effects when disasters that occur cause ten or more injuries and fatalities, but benefit from the incident through increasing equity value when the level of injury and fatality is minor.ConclusionsPresence of contagion suggests collective action may reduce value destruction brought about by safety incidents that result in significant injury or loss of life.Practical ApplicationsThis research can be used as a resource to promote and justify the cost of safety mechanisms within the chemical industry, as incidents have been shown to negatively affect the equity value of the not just the incident company, but also their direct competitors.     

Risk management of cost consequences in natural gas transmission and distribution infrastructures

A critical aspect of risk management in energy systems is minimizing pipeline incidents that can potentially affect life, property and economic well-being. Risk measures and scenarios are developed in this paper in order to better understand how consequences of pipeline failures are linked to causes and other incident characteristics. An important risk measure for decision-makers in this field is the association between incident cause and cost consequences. Data from the Office of Pipeline Safety (OPS) on natural gas transmission and distribution pipeline incidents are used to analyze the association between various characteristics of the incidents and product loss cost and property damage cost. The data for natural gas transmission incidents are for the period 2002 through May 2009 and include 959 incidents. In the case of natural gas distribution incidents the data include 823 incidents that took place during the period 2004 through May 2009. A two-step approach is used in the statistical analyses to model the consequences and the costs associated with pipeline incidents. In the first step the probability that there is a nonzero consequence associated with an incident is estimated as a function of the characteristics of the incident. In the second step the magnitudes of the consequence measures, given that there is a nonzero outcome, are evaluated as a function of the characteristics of the incidents. It is found that the important characteristics of an incident for risk management can be quite different depending on whether the incident involves a transmission or distribution pipeline, and the type of cost consequence being modeled. The application of this methodology could allow decision-makers in the energy industry to construct scenarios to gain a better understanding of how cost consequence measures vary depending on factors such as incident cause and incident type.     

Duty hours and incidents in flight among commercial airline pilots

Introduction. Working long duty hours has often been associated with increased risk of incidents and accidents in transport industries. Despite this, information regarding the intermediate relationship between duty hours and incident risk is limited. This study aimed to test a work hours/incident model to identify the interplay of factors contributing to incidents within the aviation industry. Methods. Nine hundred and fifty-four European-registered commercial airline pilots completed a 30-item survey investigating self-report attitudes and experiences of fatigue. Path analysis was used to test the proposed model. Results. The fit indices indicated this to be a good fit model (χ²?=?11.066, df?=?5, p?=?0.05; Comparative Fit Index?=?0.991; Normed Fit Index?=?0.984; Tucker–Lewis Index?=?0.962; Root Mean Square of Approximation?=?0.036). Highly significant relationships were identified between duty hours and sleep disturbance (r?=?0.18, p?r?=?0.40, p?r?=?0.43, p?Discussion. A critical pathway from duty hours through to self-reported incidents in flight was identified. Further investigation employing both objective and subjective measures of sleep and fatigue is needed.     

Operational risk assessment of chemical industries by exploiting accident databases

Accident databases (NRC, RMP, and others) contain records of incidents (e.g., releases and spills) that have occurred in the USA chemical plants during recent years. For various chemical industries, [Kleindorfer, P. R., Belke, J. C., Elliott, M. R., Lee, K., Lowe, R. A., & Feldman, H. I. (2003). Accident epidemiology and the US chemical industry: Accident history and worst-case data from RMP*Info. Risk Analysis, 23(5), 865–881.] summarize the accident frequencies and severities in the RMP*Info database. Also, [Anand, S., Keren, N., Tretter, M. J., Wang, Y., O’Connor, T. M., & Mannan, M. S. (2006). Harnessing data mining to explore incident databases. Journal of Hazardous Material, 130, 33–41.] use data mining to analyze the NRC database for Harris County, Texas.Classical statistical approaches are ineffective for low frequency, high consequence events because of their rarity. Given this information limitation, this paper uses Bayesian theory to forecast incident frequencies, their relevant causes, equipment involved, and their consequences, in specific chemical plants. Systematic analyses of the databases also help to avoid future accidents, thereby reducing the risk.More specifically, this paper presents dynamic analyses of incidents in the NRC database. The NRC database is exploited to model the rate of occurrence of incidents in various chemical and petrochemical companies using Bayesian theory. Probability density distributions are formulated for their causes (e.g., equipment failures, operator errors, etc.), and associated equipment items utilized within a particular industry. Bayesian techniques provide posterior estimates of the cause and equipment-failure probabilities. Cross-validation techniques are used for checking the modeling, validation, and prediction accuracies. Differences in the plant- and chemical-specific predictions with the overall predictions are demonstrated. Furthermore, extreme value theory is used for consequence modeling of rare events by formulating distributions for events over a threshold value. Finally, the fast-Fourier transform is used to estimate the capital at risk within an industry utilizing the frequency and loss-severity distributions.     

Non-occupational injuries caused by transport packaging: Residential and retail hazards

BackgroundBackground: Pallets are key components of domestic supply chains, and yet present unique hazards when used by homeowners and retailers for unintended uses. No previous works have investigated non-occupational injuries that occur due to unintentional contact with pallets. This study sought to describe the incidence and epidemiology of non-occupational pallet-related injuries as seen in United States emergency departments (EDs). Method: The National Electronic Injury Surveillance System database was used to derive national, weighted estimates of pallet-related injuries by age, sex, injured body part, and location where injury occurred. Data for the years 2014 to 2018 were analyzed with all relevant narratives reviewed. Results: From 2014 to 2018, there were an estimated 30,493 persons who visited an ED for a pallet-related injury. The yearly incidence of pallet injuries rose during this period. The 35–44 age group (n = 5,481) was most likely to be injured, but about 3,000 children and youth under 18 years of age were injured and more than 4,000 persons 65 years of age or older suffered injuries. The elderly were especially likely to suffer injuries from slip, trip and fall incidents. The lower extremities were the most commonly injured body parts. An estimated 3,964 persons, accounting for approximately 14% of all pallet-related injuries, were treated for injuries incurred while at a retail establishment. African Americans, Hispanics, and the elderly appeared to be disproportionately more likely to have pallet-related injuries in retail locations. Conclusions: Non-occupational pallet-related injuries affect a wide range of patients and cause a variety of injuries, with the elderly being especially vulnerable to tripping incidents. Retailer prevention strategies should focus on the misuse of pallets for merchandising purposes. Industry should maintain control of pallets so they are not used for unintended purposes. Practical applications: Retailers should limit the use of pallets for floor-level merchandising purposes and remove pallets from customer-facing locations where unintentional contact could occur. Owners of pallets should maintain them in a controlled supply chain so that they don’t leak out into the hands of homeowners. Policy-makers should educate the public about the dangers of used pallets.     

Analysis of laboratory incident database

With the growth of academic institutions, the number of labs handling hazardous chemicals has increased. Although the chemicals used in academic institutions are well-known, the dosage, usage, and management of these chemicals pose significant threat to researchers at all levels. As a step towards incident prevention, a laboratory incident database was developed to record incidents at universities and secondary schools. The data consisted of 128 entries occurring during the years 2012–2015. Incidents were classified by institution type, hazard type, consequences, substance type, body parts injured and direct causes. Of 128 incidents, 65% of the incidents were taking place in universities. Chemical spills were observed to be the most recurrent hazard type contributing to 45% of the incidents following by explosions (23%) and fires (21%). The consequence which most frequently occurred in incidents was personal injury and hazmat response contributing to 22% each. It was observed that in 41% of the incidents, the body parts injured in the incident was not known or reported. Of the total 128 incidents, about 50 incidents occurred due to improper storage and handling.     

Injury risks for on-road farm equipment and horse and buggy crashes in Pennsylvania: 2010–2013

Objective: The purpose of this study was to investigate characteristics associated with farm equipment and horse and buggy roadway crashes in relation to person, incident, and injury characteristics to identify appropriate points for injury incident prevention.

Methods: Information on crashes occurring on public roads during the years 2010–2013 was obtained from the Pennsylvania Department of Transportation (PennDOT) and analyzed.

Results: There were 344 farm equipment and 246 horse and buggy crashes during the 4-year study period. These crashes involved 666 and 504 vehicles and 780 and 838 people, respectively. In incidents with farm equipment, the non-farm equipment drivers had an almost 2 times greater injury risk than farm equipment operators. Horse and buggy crashes were almost 3 times more injurious to the horse and buggy drivers than the drivers of the other vehicles.

Conclusions: The average crash rate for farm equipment was 198.4 crashes per 100,000 farm population and for horse and buggy the crash rate was calculated as 89.4 crashes per 100,000 Amish population per year. This study suggests that road safety and public health programs should focus not only on farm equipment operators and horse and buggy drivers but on other motorists sharing the roadway with them.     

What the research says about concussion risk factors and prevention strategies for youth sports: A scoping review of six commonly played sports

Introduction: Given the growing research on potential adverse outcomes related to concussion and other serious brain injuries and the increased susceptibility for concussion among youth athletes, primary prevention is vital to protect the health and safety of this population. The purpose of this study is to summarize the current research on risk factors and primary concussion prevention strategies focused on specific youth sports, and to identify research gaps. Methods: A literature search was conducted using six electronic databases. A scoping review method was used to identify studies that addressed risk factors or primary concussion prevention strategies focused on youth athletes (ages 5–18 years) in six sports (football, ice hockey, soccer, lacrosse, basketball, and wrestling). Results: Of the 18 publications identified, the publications focused on risk factors (N = 11), policy (N = 1), rule changes (N = 3), education (N = 2), equipment (N = 2), and playing technique (N = 0). Some articles had information related to multiple topics. Conclusions: Current research on concussion prevention has primarily been focused on risk factors. There are a dearth of studies that examine primary concussion prevention in sports. When studies do exist, most focus on football and ice hockey. Only a small number of studies focus solely on risk factors or primary prevention in soccer, lacrosse, basketball, and wrestling—all sports in which concussions are common. Practical applications: This scoping review summarizes current research on concussion risk factors and primary prevention strategies in specific sports focused on youth athletes and identifies research gaps to help inform future efforts.     

Modeling the effects of production pressure on safety performance in construction projects using system dynamics

Introduction: Construction incidents occur due to system failures, not due to a single factor such as unsafe behavior or condition. Therefore, construction safety should be investigated using a systematic view capable of illustrating the complex nature of incidents. Construction projects are also often behind their planned schedule and suffer from various pressures caused by contractual deadlines or clients. Previous studies demonstrated that such pressures negatively affect safety performance; however, the process of how production pressure influences safety performance is not fully investigated. Method: The present research aimed to understand the feedback mechanism of how production pressure interactively affects safety performance and safety-related managerial components in a construction project. Ground theory method (GTM) is used to create a conceptual causal loop diagram that shows the relationship between incident rate and other variables such as labor hour, actual and planned progress, safety climate, rework, and safety training. Moreover, a power plant construction project was used as a case study to practically investigate the conceptual model; a case study is employed to build a System Dynamics (SD) model. The simulation model was then validated using behavior reproduction and sensitivity analysis. Results: The results of the inequality statistics show that the simulation model can be used to forecast trends in the incident rate.     

近十年中国民航事故及事故征候的统计分析

对1996—2005年我国民航发生的32起事故及1147起事故征候进行统计分析,其结果表明:我国民航事故和事故征候的万架次率及万时率均呈下降态势,机组、机械和机务原因是我国民航事故和事故征候的主要原因,事故征候的主要类型是鸟击、空中停车、偏出/冲出跑道/场外接地,事故征候发生阶段依次为巡航、起飞、着陆、爬升和进近。该研究成果有助于寻找事故和事故征候成因和规律。明确安全管理重点和难点;采取有效的预警和预控对策。     

The effect of fatigue driving on injury severity considering the endogeneity

IntroductionFatigue driving is one of the most risky driving-related behaviors and represented a significant social and economic cost to the community. Several studies have already examined the relationship between fatigue driving behavior and traffic injury severity from different aspects. However, fatigue driving and injury severity in traffic crash may share some common influential factors. Ignoring the impact of these common factors will lead to endogeneity problem and result in biased parameter estimation.MethodBased on 38,564 crash records during 2006–2011 in Guangdong province, China, we apply a bivariate endogenous binary-ordered probit model to examine the relationship between fatigue driving and injury severity considering endogeneity of fatigue driving. We also explore the difference of influential factors between commercial and non-commercial vehicle drivers.ResultsThis study identifies several common observed influential factors of fatigue driving propensity and fatal injury propensity and reveals a substantial and significant negative correlation of unobserved factors between them.ConclusionsThe influence of fatigue driving on injury severity is significantly underestimated if the endogeneity of fatigue driving on fatal injury propensity is ignored. Factors such as vehicle insurance and road types not only affect fatal injury propensity, but also fatigue driving propensity.Practical applicationsThe findings in this study can help better understand how those factors affect fatigue driving and injury severity, and contributes to more efficient policy for preventing the harmfulness of fatigue-related crashes.     

The influence of trait mindfulness on incident involvement among Chinese airline pilots: The role of risk perception and flight experience

Introduction The primary objective of this study is to investigate the relationships between trait mindfulness, risk perception, flight experience, and incident involvement among Chinese airline pilots. Method The study used a sample consisting of 295 commercial airline pilots from China Southern Airlines Ltd. Results The results show that trait mindfulness has a direct and negative effect on airline pilots' incident involvement, and an indirect effect on incident involvement through influencing risk perception. Flight experience was also found to strengthen the negative and direct effect of trait mindfulness on incident involvement. Practical applications The practical implications of the study include recommendations as to injury prevention efforts in incident involvement. Future research directions are also discussed.     

What can the trove of CSB incident investigations teach us? A detailed analysis of information characteristics among chemical process incidents investigated by the CSB

Understanding the commonalities among previous chemical process incidents can help mitigate recurring incidents in the chemical process industry and will be useful background knowledge for designers intending to foster inherent safety. The U.S. Chemical Safety and Hazard Investigation Board (CSB) reports provide detailed and vital incident information that can be used to identify possible commonalities. This study aims to develop a systematic approach for extracting data from the CSB reports with the objective of establishing these commonalities. Data were extracted based on three categories: attributed incident causes, scenarios, and consequences. Seventeen causal factors were classified as chemical indicators or process indicators. Twelve chemical indicators are associated with the hazards of the chemicals involved in the incidents, whereas five process indicators account for the hazards presented by process conditions at the time of the incident. Seven scenario factors represent incident sequences, equipment types, operating modes, process units, domino effects, detonation likelihood for explosion incidents, and population densities. Finally, three consequence factors were selected based on types of chemical incidents, casualties, population densities, and economic losses. Data from 87 CSB reports covering 94 incidents were extracted and analyzed according to the proposed approach. Based on these findings, the study proposes guidelines for future collection of information to provide valuable resources for prediction and risk reduction of future incidents.     

Understanding factors associated with misclassification of fatigue-related accidents in police record

IntroductionFatigue is one of the riskiest causes of traffic accidents threatening road safety. Due to lack of proper criteria, the identification of fatigue-related accidents by police officers largely depends on inferential evidence and their own experience. As a result, many fatigue-related accidents are misclassified and the harmfulness of fatigue on road safety is misestimated.MethodIn this paper, a joint model framework is introduced to analyze factors contributing to misclassification of a fatigue-related accident in police reports. Association rule data mining technique is employed to identify the potential interactions of factors, and logistic regression models are applied to analyze factors that hinder police officers' identification of fatigue-related accidents. Using the fatigue-related crash records from Guangdong Province during 2005–2014, factors contributing to the false positive and false negative detection of the fatigue-related accident have been identified and compared.ResultsSome variables and interactions were identified to have significant impacts on fatigue-related accident detection.ConclusionsBased on the results, it can be inferred that the stereotype of certain groups of drivers, crash types, and roadway conditions affects police officers' judgment on fatigue-related accidents.Practical applicationsThis finding can provide useful information for training police officers and build better criteria for fatigue identification.     

Fall-related fracture trends among elderly in Sweden – exploring transitions among hospitalized cases

ProblemFall-related injuries have been a cause of worry during the end of the 20th century with increasing trends among the elderly.MethodUsing data from the Swedish National Patient Register (NPR) based on hospital admissions, this study explores the trends in fall-related fractures between 1998 and 2010.ResultsThe data shows a decreasing trend in fall-related fractures in all age- and sex-specific groups apart from men 80 years and above. While hip fracture incidence rates decreased in all age- and sex-specific groups, both central fractures and upper extremity fractures have increased in all age- and sex-specific groups apart from women 65–79 years. Lower extremity fractures have increased in the older age groups and decreased in the younger. Discussion: The differences found between the groups of fractures and by age- and sex-specific groups indicate a possible transition where more serious fractures are decreasing while less serious fractures increase among hospitalized cases.SummaryPerhaps due to a focus on hip fracture prevention, this study shows that while the incidence rate of hospitalized hip fractures has decreased, other fall-related hospitalized fractures have increased.Impact on industryPotentially, this could be indicative of a healthier younger elderly, coupled with a frailer older elderly requiring more comprehensive healthcare also for less serious injuries. Further research is needed to confirm our results.     

A research model--forecasting incident rates from optimized safety program intervention strategies

INTRODUCTION/PROBLEM: Property damage incidents, workplace injuries, and safety programs designed to prevent them, are expensive aspects of doing business in contemporary industry. The National Safety Council (2002) estimated that workplace injuries cost $146.6 billion per year. Because companies are resource limited, optimizing intervention strategies to decrease incidents with less costly programs can contribute to improved productivity. METHOD: Systematic data collection methods were employed and the forecasting ability of a time-lag relationship between interventions and incident rates was studied using various statistical methods (an intervention is not expected to have an immediate nor infinitely lasting effect on the incident rate). RESULTS/SUMMARY: As a follow up to the initial work, researchers developed two models designed to forecast incident rates. One is based on past incident rate performance and the other on the configuration and level of effort applied to the safety and health program. Researchers compared actual incident performance to the prediction capability of each model over 18 months in the forestry operations at an electricity distribution company and found the models to allow accurate prediction of incident rates. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: These models potentially have powerful implications as a business-planning tool for human resource allocation and for designing an optimized safety and health intervention program to minimize incidents. Depending on the mathematical relationship, one can determine what interventions, where and how much to apply them, and when to increase or reduce human resource input as determined by the forecasted performance.     

Emergency department visits vs. fatalities among substance-impaired underage youths involved in motor vehicle crashes

IntroductionEmergency department (ED) visits resulting from motor vehicle crashes (MVCs) among individuals younger than 21 impaired by alcohol and/or drugs have been less studied than MVC fatalities.MethodUsing data from 2004 to 2011, we compare the magnitude and pattern of national ED visit and mortality data for alcohol- and drug-impaired youths involved in MVCs.ResultsTemporal patterns of ED visits are similar to those of fatalities, but the two differ in magnitude. The ratio of ED visits to fatalities is 3.5:1; alcohol related events involvement dominates other drugs in both categories.DiscussionThe volume of injuries serious enough to warrant ED visits imposes significant health, social, and financial burdens. In ED visits, alcohol is the prime source of MVC morbidity burden; other drugs consistently contribute less.Practical applicationsThese incidents are persistent and require interventions aimed at multiple levels of prevention, including stricter corrective steps earlier in the impaired driving career to reduce subsequent incidents. ED visits for MVC injuries can be important “teachable moments.” Limitations of the study indicate the need for improved surveillance of underage substance-involved crashes.     

工业事故调查与分析的发展历程及趋势

工业事故调查伴随着工业革命的发展而开展,而事故分析,特别是系统的分析开展于上世纪的五六十年代。事故调查和分析研究的发展历程可以分成四个阶段,单一原因-结果阶段、多原因-结果阶段、系统化分析阶段以及产业化发展阶段。事故调查和分析从最早的仅仅查找事故（直接）原因单一目的,发展到现在查找（根本）原因、分析原因、制定措施、监督执行等多个目的。事故调查和分析已经发展成为一个学科,一种职业。事故调查和分析的理论和方法也从最初的单方面、表面、短期发展到了全面、深入和系统化。本文在介绍事故调查和分析的发展阶段和过程的同时还将对各阶段代表性的调查方法和理论给予介绍,主要包括＂鱼骨（F ishbone）图＂、＂领结图（BowTie）＂、＂直根（Taproot）图＂和＂三脚架（Tripod）＂。     

Insights into process safety incidents from an analysis of CSB investigations

Many incidents have helped to define and develop process safety. Each has provided valuable learning opportunities. However, it is even more important to identify insights that can be obtained from an analysis of a large set of incidents that represents those that typically occur. This larger picture illuminates trends and commonalities and provides learning opportunities that are even more important than the causes of any one individual incident.The Chemical Safety Board has published the results of over 60 investigations of process safety incidents. These data have been analyzed to identify commonalities and trends so that measures to help protect against future incidents can be developed. Recommendations are made to address key issues identified.