Rainfall-human-spatial interactions in a salinity-prone agricultural region of the Western Australian wheat-belt

To explore the complexity of temporal and spatial dynamics of an agricultural landscape under various external and internal driven scenarios, SimKat, an agent-based model, has been developed with the simulation computer program CORMAS. This model combines simplified bio-physical processes of land cover, regional dry-land salinity changes, rainfall impact on productivity, farm profitability and the complexity of land-use decisions of individual farmers in a dry-land agricultural catchment (no irrigation). In this model, simulated farmers formulate individual decisions dealing with land-use changes based on the combined performance of their past land cover productivity and market returns. The willingness to adapt to market drivers and the ability to maximize returns vary between farmers. In addition, farmers in the model can demonstrate various attitudes towards dry-land salinity mitigation as a consequence of experiencing and perceiving salinity on their farm, in the neighborhood or across the entire region. Consequently, farmers can adopt land cover strategies aimed at reducing dry-land salinity. Aggregating the simulated individual behavior of farmers combined with historical rainfall and market price records, reproduced similar aggregated trends of land-cover changes, regional salinity change and farm number decline as observed in the last 20 years in the subject region (Katanning, Western Australia). Using the model in an initial exploratory study on the impact of rainfall variability and change highlighted the importance of average rainfall decline and the widespread willingness of farmers to adapt perennial vegetation in their farming systems to combat regional dry-land salinity. Rainfall decline, as one of the observed consequences of climate change in this region, can also lead to prolonged sequences of dry seasons in the future. Adaptation by farmers to sequences of dry and wet seasons, rather than an average trend in rainfall, seems to be critical for farm survival in this region. Intensifying cropping during wet seasons to maximize farm returns can increase vulnerability in subsequent periods of dry seasons, in particular where alternative income from pasture and sheep production has been lost in the adaptation process.     

A Comparison of Landscapes Occupied by Increasing and Decreasing Populations of Grassland Birds

Abstract:  For several decades, many grassland bird species have been declining in abundance throughout the Midwest and Great Plains regions of the United States, possibly due to loss of natural grassland habitat and increasing urbanization. I used 20 years of data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey to identify increasing, decreasing, and stable populations of 36 grassland-nesting bird species. I characterized the immediate landscape (circle with radius = 30 km) surrounding each population based on data from the National Resources Inventory. For each landscape, I calculated the proportion of eight different land-cover types: restored grassland, rangeland, cultivated cropland, pasture, noncultivated cropland, forest, urban land, and water. Using a null model, I compared landscape composition of increasing, decreasing, and stable populations. As predicted on the basis of the habitat preferences of grassland birds, increasing populations inhabited landscapes that contained significantly more restored grassland and rangeland but significantly less forest land and urban land than landscapes inhabited by decreasing populations. There was no significant difference in the proportion of cropland within the landscapes of increasing and decreasing populations, although cropland composed a large proportion (>30%) of many landscapes. In contrast, restored grassland typically composed a very small proportion (<3.5%) of total land cover, yet it was significantly more common in the landscapes of increasing than decreasing populations. These results suggest that grassland birds may benefit from government initiatives, such as the Conservation Reserve Program, that promote the restoration of grassland at a landscape scale.     

1994—2008年河南省植被净第一性生产力及其时空变化

基于地理信息系统和卫星遥感技术,利用地面气象数据、遥感数据和土地分类等数据,根据河南省实际植被覆盖和自然地理情况,应用改进的CASA模型估算了1994—2008年间河南省植被净第一性生产力及其时空变化。结果表明：河南省植被净第一性生产力与年均温度的相关性好于植被年净第一性生产力与年降水量和年均太阳辐射之间的相关性,温度是限制河南省植被净第一性生产力的主要因子;15年来河南省植被净第一性生产力呈增加趋势,但不明显;河南省主要植被类型的净第一性生产力从大到小依次为林地、灌丛、耕地、草地、其它植被,它们随时间的变化趋势极为一致。     

Human drivers,biophysical changes,and climatic variation affecting contemporary cropping proportions in the northern prairie of the U.S

Grassland to cropland conversion in the northern prairie of the United States has been a topic of recent land use change studies. Within this region more corn and soybeans are grown now (2017) than in the past, but most studies to date have not examined multi-decadal trends and the synergistic web of socio-ecological driving forces involved, opting instead for short-term analyses and easily targeted agents of change. This paper examines the coalescing of biophysical and socioeconomic driving forces that have brought change to the agricultural landscape of this region between 1980 and 2013. While land conversion has occurred, most of the region’s cropland in 2013 had been previously cropped by the early 1980s. Furthermore, the agricultural conditions in which crops were grown during those three decades have changed considerably because of non-biophysical alterations to production practices and changing agricultural markets. Findings revealed that human drivers played more of a role in crop change than biophysical changes, that blending quantitative and qualitative methods to tell a more complete story of crop change in this region was difficult because of the synergistic characteristics of the drivers involved, and that more research is needed to understand how farmers make crop choice decisions.     

Farmer's perception and response towards land policy and eco-environment based on participatory rural appraisal: A case study in the Loess hilly area,China

Based on a survey of 107 farm households by means of participatory rural appraisal, this paper presents a region-level analysis of farmer's perception and response towards land policies and eco-environment in the Loess hilly area, China. The surveyed farmers are divided into two groups, farmers on non-irrigated farmland and farmers on irrigated farmland. The results indicate that most farmers mainly depend on cropland, especially the farmers on non-irrigated farmland. Farmers believe that stability and persistence of land policies are important, and most hold a positive attitude towards the Grain-for-Green Programme. The farmers on irrigated farmland have a more favourable attitude to environmental conservation than the farmers of non-irrigated farmland. Nearly 80% of interviewees consider that the local eco-environment has improved in the last ten years. About 45% never consider the environmental impact of their agriculture practices. About 55% think drought is the most important reason for eco-environment deterioration, overgrazing and serious soil erosion. Soil and water conservation is not conscious and voluntary behaviour for farmers, it is only a measure to guarantee their basic agricultural production and to improve their living conditions. Results indicate that farmers on nonirrigated land find engineering approaches more beneficial to agronomic methods. However, the farmers on irrigated farmland pay more attention to improving farmland quality.     

中国土地生产力变化的情景分析

中国土地生产力变化态势是当前国内外学术界、决策界关注的焦点问题之一.介绍了土地生产力估算系统(ESLP)的原理与功能模块并利用该系统研究了中国土地生产力的变化态势.ESLP是在气温、降水、辐射水平、土壤质地等自然因素控制下,受土地利用方向与强度影响的,考虑土地系统不同的投入水平和管理措施的区域土地生产力估算系统.ESLP关注土地生产力变化的时空动态,能表达出不同投入管理水平下土地生产力的时空变化.文章应用ESLP研究了1988年和2000年中国土地生产力变化及其空间分异特征,将估算结果与1988年和2000年全国分县粮食产量数据的比较与验证表明,基于ESLP估算的各县土地生产力与各县粮食总产量具有很高的相关性,在一定程度上反映一个区域的粮食生产能力.在此基础上,应用ESLP预测了2010与2020年在气候变化情景下土地生产力的变化,预测结果显示,虽然局部地区土地生产力有小幅减少趋势,但从全国来看,土地生产力增长趋势明显.平均来看,2010年比2000年增长4.4%,而到2020年,土地生产力的增长幅度达到10.7%.不过在各个农业生态分区上,不同年份土地生产力变化差异较大,在2010年和2020年长江中下游区土地生产力均呈一定幅度的下降,而甘新区和西藏区只在2010年土地生产力有小幅下降.该研究结论对我国编制土地利用规划与粮食生产方面的决策具有重要的参考价值.     

Towards sustainable land-use in the hills of Central Himalaya,India

SUMMARY

Over-population in relation to poor land productivity and cultivation in less fertile lands is resulting in land degradation and deforestation in UP hills. Growing demand of more food production and increasing need for more cash in hand have forced the hill people to cultivate all kinds of land, resulting in the denudation of land resources and soil erosion. These changes resulted in out migration of the area's human resource. A new management system for the revival of natural resources and the sustainable utilization of the area's human population and livestock has been proposed, involving active local participation in order to change the existing land-use to a system based on the soil fertility scale.     

Farmers' perceptions of constraints to plantain production in Ghana

SUMMARY

Plantain (Musa AAB), a primary food crop in Ghana, is a key component in sustainable agricultural systems in high rainfall zones. Recently, there has been a substantial yield decline and reduction in plantation life. To elucidate the context in which intervention strategies should be developed, a Participatory Rural Appraisal (PRA) was conducted at five villages in the major plantain-producing belt of Ghana. The importance of plantain as a preferred food was confirmed, although farmers tended to sell plantain for cash income, using cheaper, less preferred alternatives for home consumption. Farmers identified decreasing soil fertility, the high cost of labour for weeding, pests and diseases, lack of good quality planting material and marketing-related issues as the major production constraints. Due to declining productivity in less fertile regions, plantain has been replaced with other food crops such as cassava and maize. Farmers overestimated the importance of insect pests but were unaware of the extensive damage that could be caused by nematodes and the foliar disease, black sigatoka. They observed, however, that pest damage is more severe when soil fertility is poor. Clearly, integrated pest management is likely to be most effective when practiced within the context of cropping systems management; sustainable strategies that are being developed for resource-limited plantain farmers in Ghana are discussed.     

Economics of Grassland Conversion to Cropland in the Prairie Pothole Region

Abstract: Much of the remaining grassland, particularly in North America, is privately owned, and its conversion to cultivated cropland is largely driven by economics. An understanding of why landowners convert grassland to cropland could facilitate more effective design of grassland‐conservation programs. We built an empirical model of land‐use change in the Prairie Pothole Region (north‐central United States) to estimate the probability of grassland conversion to alternative agricultural land uses, including cultivated crops. Conversion was largely driven by landscape characteristics and the economic returns of alternative uses. Our estimate of the probability of grassland conversion to cultivated crops (1.33% on average from 1979 to 1997) was higher than past estimates (0.4%). Our model also predicted that grassland‐conversion probabilities will increase if agricultural commodity prices continue to follow the trends observed from 2001 to 2006 (0.93% probability of grassland conversion to cultivated crops in 2006 to 1.5% in 2011). Thus, nearly 121 million ha (30 million acres) of grassland could be converted by 2011. Conversion probabilities, however, are spatially heterogeneous (range 0.2% to 3%), depending on characteristics of a parcel (e.g., soil quality and economic returns). Grassland parcels with relatively high‐quality land for agricultural production are more likely to be converted to cultivated crops than lower‐quality parcels and are more responsive to changes in the economic returns on alternative agricultural land uses (i.e., conversion probability increases by a larger magnitude for high‐quality parcels when economics returns to alternative uses increase). Our results suggest that grassland conservation programs could be proactively targeted toward high‐risk parcels by anticipating changes in economic returns, such as could occur if a new biofuel processing plant were to be built in an area.     

Organic farmers in islands: Agricultural management and attitude towards the environment

SUMMARY

This study explores differences among organic farmers who live in islands and have isolated small-size operations. The relationships between farmers' characteristics and attitudes and farm management were interpreted by studying how they manage their land, their attitudes towards the environment and alternative farming systems, and their involvement in organic farming. The research was carried out using questionnaires addressed to organic farmers on the island of Thassos. Nonlinear canonical correlation was applied for data analysis. This information could contribute to adjustment of policy decisions for on-farm diversification. Agricultural policy makers should approach organic farmers in northern Thassos (productive irrigated olive orchards with gentle slopes) by enacting standards to reduce the cost of alternative plant protection methods and promoting their products in order to maintain and expand organic farming. They should also approach organic farmers in southern Thassos (less productive, dry cultivated olive orchards with steep slopes, overgrazed and often abandoned) by providing them with the necessary information and appropriate agricultural know-how to effectively manage their farms. Organic farmers with stable off-farm income are more aware of environmental values and consider that they risk less than others in order to gain the benefits of alternative farming systems. However, they should attend training programmes to achieve economic success to allow them to continue farming organically.     

Effects of land use on water quality of two high-altitude lakes and catchments in Yunnan Province,China

SUMMARY

Reclaiming farmland from lakes in China in the 1950s damaged the water quality of many lakes. Tremendous efforts have been made since the late 1990s to restore vegetation around the damaged lakes. This paper examines water quality of Fuxian and Qilu Lakes and land-use characteristics within the two catchments in the high-altitude area of Yunnan Province, China. Landsat TM data acquired in 1989, 1994, 1999 and 2005 were used to extract land use and land cover (LULC) information. Measurements of five water quality indices (WQIs), BOD, COD, pH, TN and TP, for the same period of time were examined. The results showed that the area of residential and forest/shrub increased, whereas that of cropland and barren land decreased from 1989 to 2005 in both catchments. Qilu Lake was much more polluted than Fuxian Lake, and pollution worsened over time for both lakes. The differences in water quality between the two lakes were caused by differences in LULC composition and continued degradation in water quality was caused by intensive farming and urban sprawl. Unless the landscape is converted back to its pre-1950 composition and structure, water quality in both lakes cannot be significantly improved and will continue to threaten sustainable development in the region.     

基于多维特征优选支持向量机算法的城市土地利用变化遥感监测

随着遥感影像时、空、谱、辐分辨率和数据处理能力的提升,综合多维影像特征已成为提高土地利用分类精度的关键.目前并非所有特征均有助于分类,且传统分类仍拘泥于单一特征,因此,急需有效的特征优化选择方法.基于光谱指数、穗帽变换、最小噪声分离、高斯滤波、灰度共生矩阵等变换提取了Landsat TM/ETM+/OLI影像的31维特...     

On the gains of committing to inefficiency: Corruption,deforestation and low land productivity in Latin America

We present a new explanation and empirical evidence showing that rural subsidies to large farmers tend to be associated with low land productivity and excessive deforestation. We develop a lobbying model where wealthy farmers trade bribes or political contributions to government politicians in exchange for subsidies; farmers are able to tilt the terms of the bargaining game with policy makers in their favor by pre-committing to an inefficient choice of semi-fixed inputs. Government proneness to accept political contributions or bribes and its willingness to provide subsidies cause farmers to adopt inefficient modes of production as a mechanism to capture such subsidies. Our predictions are consistent with stylized facts on land use in Latin America, and suggest that subsidy schemes have been counterproductive—distorting and constraining development, and triggering excessive depletion of natural resources. We validate some of the predictions of the model through econometric analyses using a new data set for nine countries in Latin America.     

On the gains of committing to inefficiency: Corruption, deforestation and low land productivity in Latin America

We present a new explanation and empirical evidence showing that rural subsidies to large farmers tend to be associated with low land productivity and excessive deforestation. We develop a lobbying model where wealthy farmers trade bribes or political contributions to government politicians in exchange for subsidies; farmers are able to tilt the terms of the bargaining game with policy makers in their favor by pre-committing to an inefficient choice of semi-fixed inputs. Government proneness to accept political contributions or bribes and its willingness to provide subsidies cause farmers to adopt inefficient modes of production as a mechanism to capture such subsidies. Our predictions are consistent with stylized facts on land use in Latin America, and suggest that subsidy schemes have been counterproductive—distorting and constraining development, and triggering excessive depletion of natural resources. We validate some of the predictions of the model through econometric analyses using a new data set for nine countries in Latin America.     

Afghanistan: Environmental degradation in a fragile ecological setting

SUMMARY

Currently, only 6% of the 15% of land in Afghanistan is usable and, if all the refugees were to return, problems of land ownership and adequacy of available land are inevitable. Natural forests have been severely degraded. Due to the nature of the topography and the arid climate, vast areas are subject to soil erosion. Loss of vegetation and soil humus have created ever more arid conditions. Abandoning the lands, poor reclamation schemes, overgrazing and destruction of vegetation for fuelwood have all caused desertifkation. The biological productivity of pastures has also deteriorated. This reduced productivity has affected livestock and has caused dramatic changes to the patterns of wildlife populations. Soil salinization and waterlogged lands are common. Farmland and pastures have been contaminated by landmines. Heavy concentrations of air-borne particulates and considerable amounts of transboundary pollutants from the Aral Sea have been found. Use of chemicals and the machinery of war have damaged the ecosystems.

Collection of plants and animals is unregulated and has resulted in excessive removal or extermination of some species endemic to the Hindu Kush. Uprooting of some plants and dynamite fishing are increasing and a disturbing number of fauna and flora are endangered. Agriculture is traditional, and natural resources are not being used in a sustainable way. A sound environmental strategy needs to be formulated and adopted.     

基于净初级生产力的中国各地生态足迹均衡因子测算

生态足迹作为一种非货币化的生态系统评估工具,是近年来国际上一种重要的判别可持续发展程度的生物物理量方法。均衡因子是生态足迹计算中的一个重要参数,其是否准确直接影响到计算结果的可靠性与可比性。随着生态足迹方法的广泛应用,其标准化和本地化研究成为迫切的需要。为便于区域水平上的生态足迹空间分析,采用中国2001年1km MODIS数据,根据植被的净初级生产力(net primary production,NPP),计算出全国和不同省份各种土地类型的均衡因子。结果表明,就中国平均均衡因子而言,农地和建筑用地为1.71,林地和能源用地为1.41,畜牧地为0.44,渔业水域为0.35;就不同省份而言,由于区域内不同土地利用类型的相对生产能力不同,因而均衡因子各不相同,但大体上呈现农地>林地>畜牧地>渔业水域的规律。     

Sexual selection and female fitness in <Emphasis Type="Italic">Drosophila simulans</Emphasis>

There is a current debate over the net fitness consequences of sexual selection. Do preferred males increase female fitness or are these males manipulating females for their own benefit? The evidence is mixed. Some studies find that mating with attractive males increases female fitness components, while others show that preferred males decrease measures of female fitness. In this study, we examined some of the fitness consequences of pre-copulatory sexual selection in Drosophila simulans. Virgin females were either paired with one male and given an opportunity for one copulation or were exposed simultaneously to two males. This allowed us to compare female preference (copulation latency) and fitness (longevity, lifetime productivity and rate of offspring production) both with and without the influence of male–male competition. When females had access to a single male, neither female longevity, productivity, nor short-term rate of productivity were associated with female preference, and although females mated more quickly with larger males, male size was also not associated with any female fitness measure. Inclusion of male–male competition showed that female longevity was negatively affected by preference, while productivity and rate of productivity was unaffected. This latter experiment also indicated that females preferred larger males, but again, male size was not associated with female fitness. These results indicate that females may not benefit from mating with preferred males, but they may incur survival costs.     

Understanding the distribution of cattle production systems in the South American Chaco

ABSTRACT

Impacts of cattle production vary among different production systems, but data on their distribution is scarce for most world regions. In this work, we combine datasets on cattle vaccination locations and land cover in a regression framework to define and map major cattle production systems in the Argentinean Dry Chaco. We also explore how cattle occurrence relates to spatial determinants. Results indicate that the region harbors about 5.5 million heads. Cattle density was mainly described by the share of pasture (69.9%), cropland (28.1%) and aridity (23.8%). We identified 12-major cattle production systems: six cow-calf, three whole-cycle, and three fattening systems. Of these, four systems had high woodland cover (>85%). Data generated is available in a website. Understanding the distribution of cattle production systems is important to assess the environmental impacts of beef production at broad scales. Integrating vaccination data with land-cover information provides a promising avenue to identify livestock systems.     

Regional human health risk assessment of cadmium and hexachlorocyclohexane for agricultural land in China

Widespread pollution of agricultural soil is posing great risks to food safety and human health. The absence of human health-based Generic Assessment Criteria (GAC) for agricultural land means Chinese farmers struggle to manage these risks efficiently and effectively. Cadmium (Cd) and hexachlorocyclohexane (HCH), two of the most concerned contaminants, demonstrate threshold toxicity meaning that background exposure (MDI_oral) is considered when deriving soil Generic Assessment Criteria (GAC). The CLEA (Contaminated Land Exposure Assessment) model was used to derive GAC for Cd and HCH that reflect differences in diet and soil characteristics across 19 provinces/cities. For both cadmium and alpha-HCH, Sichuan had the lowest GAC of 0.379 mg kg^?1 and 0.0136 mg kg^?1, respectively, resulting from its significant high MDI_oral values, which are approximately six to nine times larger than the average MDI_oral for all the 19 provinces/cities. Jiangxi province had the highest GAC of 1.230 mg kg^?1 and 0.0866 mg kg^?1, respectively, for cadmium and alpha-HCH, caused by its notable low MDI_oral values and low vegetable consumption rate. Human health risk assessment based on regional GAC for Cd revealed that agricultural land with very high to high risks is located in southern China, while very low-risk land is located in northern China. For HCH, alpha- and gamma-HCH pose negligible health risks, but beta-HCH poses some health risk in some of the provinces/cities. When applying the regional GAC for beta-HCH, agricultural land in Beijing and Sichuan posed the highest risk, and those in Heilongjiang and Jiangxi had the lowest risk. This reflects the significant influence of background and vegetable consumption pathway on the GAC. Regional GACs could simplify and speed up risk assessment of agricultural land in different regions of China, by avoiding the need to calculate site-specific assessment criteria, thus saving time and money by avoiding over or under remediation.

     

The importance of agricultural yield elasticity for indirect land use change: a Bayesian network analysis for robust uncertainty quantification

ABSTRACT

A major barrier to realising biofuels’ climate change mitigation potential is uncertainty concerning carbon emissions from indirect land use change (ILUC). Central to this uncertainty is the extent to which yields can respond dynamically to increased demand for agricultural commodities. This study examines the elasticity of soybean and corn yields in the USA for 1990–2017 using Bayesian network models to robustly quantify uncertainty. The central finding is that a single parameter value for yield elasticity does not adequately represent the effects of technology, policy and price pressures through time. The models demonstrate the limiting role of technological progress as well as farmers’ capital investment in response to system shocks. Results suggest evaluation of parameter uncertainty alone is unlikely to capture a full range of future ILUC scenarios and reiterate the need for ILUC studies to use probabilistic approaches as standard to robustly inform climate change mitigation policies.