Economic-based projections of future land use in the conterminous United States under alternative policy scenarios

Land-use change significantly contributes to biodiversity loss, invasive species spread, changes in biogeochemical cycles, and the loss of ecosystem services. Planning for a sustainable future requires a thorough understanding of expected land use at the fine spatial scales relevant for modeling many ecological processes and at dimensions appropriate for regional or national-level policy making. Our goal was to construct and parameterize an econometric model of land-use change to project future land use to the year 2051 at a fine spatial scale across the conterminous United States under several alternative land-use policy scenarios. We parameterized the econometric model of land-use change with the National Resource Inventory (NRI) 1992 and 1997 land-use data for 844 000 sample points. Land-use transitions were estimated for five land-use classes (cropland, pasture, range, forest, and urban). We predicted land-use change under four scenarios: business-as-usual, afforestation, removal of agricultural subsidies, and increased urban rents. Our results for the business-as-usual scenario showed widespread changes in land use, affecting 36% of the land area of the conterminous United States, with large increases in urban land (79%) and forest (7%), and declines in cropland (-16%) and pasture (-13%). Areas with particularly high rates of land-use change included the larger Chicago area, parts of the Pacific Northwest, and the Central Valley of California. However, while land-use change was substantial, differences in results among the four scenarios were relatively minor. The only scenario that was markedly different was the afforestation scenario, which resulted in an increase of forest area that was twice as high as the business-as-usual scenario. Land-use policies can affect trends, but only so much. The basic economic and demographic factors shaping land-use changes in the United States are powerful, and even fairly dramatic policy changes, showed only moderate deviations from the business-as-usual scenario. Given the magnitude of predicted land-use change, any attempts to identify a sustainable future or to predict the effects of climate change will have to take likely land-use changes into account. Econometric models that can simulate land-use change for broad areas with fine resolution are necessary to predict trends in ecosystem service provision and biodiversity persistence.     

Impact of foot-and-mouth disease status on deforestation in Brazilian Amazon and cerrado municipalities between 2000 and 2010

Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon released approximately 5.7 billion tons of CO₂ to the atmosphere between 2000 and 2010, and 50–80% of this deforestation was for pasture. Most assume that increasing demand for cattle products produced in Brazil caused this deforestation, but the empirical work to-date on cattle documents only correlations between cattle herd size, pasture expansion, cattle prices, and deforestation. This paper uses panel data on deforestation and foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) status—an exogenous demand shifter—to estimate whether changes in FMD status caused new deforestation in municipalities in the Brazilian Amazon and cerrado biomes during the 2000–2010 period. Results suggest that, on average, becoming certified as FMD-free caused a temporary spike in deforestation in the 2 years after a municipality became FMD-free, but caused subsequent deforestation to decline relative to infected municipalities during the 2000–2010 period.     

Integrated modelling of the ecosystem of the Niger river inland delta in Mali

The Niger River inland delta in Mali constitutes a vast 36,000 km² area of wetlands, producing numerous natural resources, exploited by fishermen, pastoralists and farmers. It is also a humid zone protected through the Ramsar convention of 1971. To promote the management of its natural resources, an integrated model has been developed in order to simulate the evolution of this ecosystem in relation to different scenarios of population increase, diminishing natural flooding (climatic droughts, construction of dams), increasing stress on land tenure and access to farming areas, technological advances, current administrative decentralisation policy. Possible applications of the model are illustrated through an analysis of the impact of the construction of dams on the traditional farming systems of the delta (fishing, rice cropping, pastoralism), and through a sensitivity analysis of an evolution in the fishing techniques on the revenues of fishermen. The validity of the results of the modelling is discussed and its use for other studies in the field of integrated natural resources management analysed.     

Remote sensing of global change: growth in China's Jiangsu Province

SUMMARY

This paper examines how remote-sensing data and regional social and economic data can be used together to identify changes in land-use patterns in particular regions. Study of the spatiotemporal dynamics of remote-sensing data can identify trends in competing uses of land, water and other natural resources for agriculture, industrial development and urban settlements. When combined with information on trends in industrial production, population, agricultural production, pollutant releases, water usage and natural forest coverage, these data reveal patterns of anthropogenic disturbance that can provide early signals of problems in resource decline or land-use management. This study focuses on land-cover changes in southern Jiangsu Province of the People's Republic of China between 1976 and 1984. This region, to the west of Shanghai and to the south of the Yangtze River, experienced unprecedented economic growth after the end of the Cultural Revolution. Remote-sensing imagery reveals the rapid growth of urban centres, commensurate declines in surface water area, and changing patterns of agriculture. The observed changes cast doubt on the ability of the region to sustain such rapid and intense land-use conflicts over a long period.     

Effects of Land-Use and Tsetse Fly Control on Bird Species Richness in Southwestern Ethiopia

Successful control of tsetse (Glossina spp.)-transmitted trypanosomiasis in the Ghibe Valley, Ethiopia, appears to have accelerated conversion of wooded grassland into cropland. Land conversion, in turn, may have fragmented wildlife habitat. Our objective was to assess the influence of the expansion of agricultural land-use, brought about by tsetse control, on ecological properties by using bird species richness and composition as indicators of environmental impacts. We sampled bird species richness and composition (using Timed-Species counts) and habitat structure (using field sampling and remote sensing) in four land cover/land-use types in areas subjected to tsetse fly control and adjacent areas without control. At the height of the growing season bird species numbers and vegetative complexity were greater in the small-holder, oxen-plowed fields and riparian woodlands than in wooded grasslands or in large-holder, tractor-plowed fields. Species composition was highly dissimilar (40–70% dissimilarity) comparing among land-use types, with many species found only in a single type. This implies that trypanosomiasis control that results in land conversion from wooded grasslands to small-holder farming in this region may have no adverse impacts on bird species numbers but will alter composition. These results also suggest that moderate land-use by humans (e.g., small-holder field mosaics) increases habitat heterogeneity and bird species richness relative to high levels of use (e.g., tractor-plowed fields). Tsetse control may be indirectly maintaining species richness in the valley by encouraging the differential spread of these small-scale, heterogeneous farms in place of large-scale, homogeneous farms. Nevertheless, if the extent of small-holder farms significantly exceeds that of present levels, negative impacts on bird species richness and large shifts in species composition may occur.     

Land-use planning of Minoo Island,Iran, towards sustainable land-use management

Land-use planning is one aspect of sustainable development that determines the integrity of socioeconomic and ecological nuance. Land evaluation is an approach to sustainable land-use planning, which predicts the capability of the land-use system. This means that a specific land area should be under specific use, considering certain factors and characteristics of the land and its location. In other words, lack of proper information on land capability and rational and irrational use of land leads to destruction of land resources. This paper discusses the findings of ecological and socioeconomic resource issues for Minoo Island and the surrounded zone. The study covers an area of about 172km² in southwest Iran. To establish environmental unit maps, digital layer maps of the soil texture were overlapped. The study empirically established that the area has the capability to accommodate ‘levels two’ urban and industrial development. Moreover, Minoo Island is considered to have potential for conservation and ecotourism, with a 60% potentiality for dryland farming.     

Simulating the impacts of land-use changes on non-point source pollution in Lugu Lake watershed

Protection of the water quality of Lugu Lake is important because it is a unique geographic and cultural resource. Not only point source pollution but also non-point source pollution contribute to degradation of water quality. A GIS-NPS model, with long-term hydrologic impact assessment (L-THIA), was used to evaluate long-term implications of land-use change impacts on non-point source (NPS) pollution. The land-use patterns of 1995 and 2005 were analysed to determine the changes in Lugu Lake watershed. A 30-year (1974–2003) precipitation dataset was used to estimate mean annual surface runoff and NPS pollutant loads. The contributions of different land-use categories to average annual runoff and NPS pollutant production were assessed with a unit contribution index (UCI). Results show loss of agricultural land (by 44.9%), while forest, grass/pasture and residential land increased to different degrees from 1995 to 2005. At the same time, annual average NPS pollutants, TN, TP, TSS and BOD loads all decreased, while heavy metal lead increased by 6.87%. The UCI formulated in this research was a more useful method to assess land-use impact on NPS pollutants than simple investigations of the percentage land-use change. Agricultural and residential land changes had more impact on NPS pollutants and were identified as the main source types. Suggestions on regulating land uses and management proposals for protecting lake water quality in Lugu Lake watershed are made.     

Understanding the distribution of cattle production systems in the South American Chaco

ABSTRACT

Impacts of cattle production vary among different production systems, but data on their distribution is scarce for most world regions. In this work, we combine datasets on cattle vaccination locations and land cover in a regression framework to define and map major cattle production systems in the Argentinean Dry Chaco. We also explore how cattle occurrence relates to spatial determinants. Results indicate that the region harbors about 5.5 million heads. Cattle density was mainly described by the share of pasture (69.9%), cropland (28.1%) and aridity (23.8%). We identified 12-major cattle production systems: six cow-calf, three whole-cycle, and three fattening systems. Of these, four systems had high woodland cover (>85%). Data generated is available in a website. Understanding the distribution of cattle production systems is important to assess the environmental impacts of beef production at broad scales. Integrating vaccination data with land-cover information provides a promising avenue to identify livestock systems.     

Ecological effects associated with land-use change in China's southwest agricultural landscape

Research on land-use and land-cover change, with associated effects on the ecoenvironment, is a key to understanding global change. The concept of 'ecosystem services' is also a hot issue in ecology and ecological economics. In this study, ecosystem service values are used to assess the ecological values of corresponding land-use types, so as to evaluate the ecological effects of regional land-use change. China's southwest agricultural landscape has unique ecological functions; but it also belongs to an ecologically fragile zone. Consequently, land-use change and associated ecological effects must be monitored to assure sustainable development of this area. Based on TM images in 1988, 1994 and 1999, the landscape classification maps of Yongsheng County were assessed using supervised classification and interactive modification methods. The transition matrix of land-use types and three indices of spatial patterns, patch-level, class-level and landscape-level indices, were calculated using models and GIS to examine the spatial patterns and dynamics of land use in the study area. The results show the influences of human activities and natural environmental elements, and that unused land has decreased rapidly, together with a continuous increase in forest during the past 11 years. There are also frequent intermediate transitions between farmland and unused land. An index for landscape diversity shows a tendency to increase, indicating that the proportions of each landscape element tended to average. Also, the decrease in the fractal dimension of unused land reveals that the effects of human activity are increasing. Ecological value calculations show that land-use change in Yongsheng County from 1988–1999 has resulted in positive ecological effects, with distinct spatial differences.     

Contrasting Colonist and Indigenous Impacts on Amazonian Forests

Abstract: To examine differences in land use and environmental impacts between colonist and indigenous populations in the northern Ecuadorian Amazon, we combined data from household surveys and remotely sensed imagery that was collected from 778 colonist households in 64 colonization sectors, and 499 households from five indigenous groups in 36 communities. Overall, measures of deforestation and forest fragmentation were significantly greater for colonists than indigenous peoples. On average, colonist households had approximately double the area in agriculture and cash crops and 5.5 times the area in pasture as indigenous households. Nevertheless, substantial variation in land‐use patterns existed among the five indigenous groups in measures such as cattle ownership and use of hired agricultural labor. These findings support the potential conservation value of indigenous lands while cautioning against uniform policies that homogenize indigenous ethnic groups.     

Towards sustainable land-use in the hills of Central Himalaya,India

SUMMARY

Over-population in relation to poor land productivity and cultivation in less fertile lands is resulting in land degradation and deforestation in UP hills. Growing demand of more food production and increasing need for more cash in hand have forced the hill people to cultivate all kinds of land, resulting in the denudation of land resources and soil erosion. These changes resulted in out migration of the area's human resource. A new management system for the revival of natural resources and the sustainable utilization of the area's human population and livestock has been proposed, involving active local participation in order to change the existing land-use to a system based on the soil fertility scale.     

Determination of the framework conditions and research–development needs for the dissemination of cleaner (sustainable) production applications in Turkey

SUMMARY

A cross-section survey of five states in Nigeria was derived through a stratified random sampling technique in 1999–2000 to assess the contribution of traditional knowledge in environmental conservation. Data were collected through a combination of questionnaire survey and discussions with stakeholders, with field assessment of herb gardens. Interviews were held with 1953 respondents composed of women, men and youths drawn from 20 settlements in 10 local government areas in the savanna and rainforest ecological zones.

The results derived from data analysis indicated that: (i) the rural communities were willing to accept integrated rural land-use practices that would conserve species and habitats, sustain the rural economy and the socio-cultural lifestyles of the people; (ii) the people at the local level had some basic knowledge about species and habitats, and have been conserving the forests with traditional land tenure rights; and (iii) environmental projects acceptable to the rural communities must be beneficial to the people, participatory, integrated with traditional knowledge and based on local needs.     

Agency and structure: a grounded theory approach to explain land-use change in the Mindo and western foothills of Pichincha,Ecuador

ABSTRACT

Although life and land decisions are individual, driven by perceptions of reality, they reflect broader social processes. This research aims to understand relevant land-use change processes and the context within which land-use change occurs in the study area. For this, we employ grounded theory techniques and procedures to analyze narratives and life history interviews. Based on these narratives, we re-construct past land-use changes. Additionally, we identify structural conditions that drive change, several dimensions of change, including cultural-cognitive dimensions, and future discourses. The identified structural conditions motivate changes in concepts, actions, and practices, in land-use, and institutions, eventually leading to generational changes. Further research is needed to examine how the so-called structural conditions producing change varies in different settings and contexts. These findings can provide insight into certain patterns and knowledge that may contribute to community planning, policy design, and the conception of sustainable solutions with more grounded knowledge.     

Too small to count? Making Land Use Transformations in Chiquitano communities of San Ignacio de Velasco,East Bolivia,visible

ABSTRACT

The Santa Cruz lowlands, east Bolivia, are one of South America’s most dynamic agricultural frontiers. In the Chiquitania, bordering Brazil, San Ignacio de Velasco was in 2017 ranked first nationally in terms of deforestation. There, two deforestation fronts meet with mechanized agriculture expanding from the West and South and cattle ranching from the East. Chiquitano communities are demographically dominant locally but often face land scarcity. Because of their comparatively low impact on forest vegetation, they are not well represented in broad-scale quantitative Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) studies. Based on an empirical, human geographical approach, this paper investigates the transformation of the local indigenous productive matrix, the associated land-use patterns and potential socio-ecological implications. The overall aim is to bear witness to the rapid and profound reconfiguration of traditional livelihoods with their integration in the market economy and to highlight the significance of micro-scale LULC-processes at global scale.     

Land-use planning for sustainable resource development in Kumaon Lesser Himalaya—a study of the Gomti watershed

SUMMARY

The Lesser Himalaya, as the most densely populated part of the tectonically active and ecologically sensitive Himalayan mountain ranges, deserves specific attention to the conservation of the environment and the sustainable development of natural resources. Rapid growth of the human population during recent years, and the absence of any viable means of livelihood other than uneconomic crop farming have led to the uncontrolled exploitation of land areas and the consequent degradation and depletion of critical biophysical resources in the region. The need for sustainable development in Himalaya, therefore, makes it imperative to adopt a comprehensive land-use policy based on land capacity analysis that is scientific and practical. The main objective of this paper is to evolve an optimal land-use framework for the Gomti Watershed, situated in Kumaon, Lesser Himalaya. A detailed study of the traditional land use, regional agricultural system and the areas prone to environmental hazards was made throughout the watershed, through the preparation of large scale topographical forest and land record maps, field surveys and mapping. The average slope was considered as the principal parameter of land capacity, the potential for landslides and the intensity of erosion. Recognising the drastic changes that have taken place in the traditional land use, the watershed area has been proposed to be defined as protected forests (33.41%), community forests (32.86%), cultivation (23.33%) and horticulture (8.30%).     

Intensity of land use changes in a sugarcane expansion region,Brazil

In the last decades, Brazil has been consolidated as one of the world’s largest producers of food, with emphasis on soybeans, sugarcane and beef production. With the opening of new markets and the increase in demand, a competitive scenario was developed among farming activities, resulting in changes in land use and cover. Thus, this study aimed to verify the spatial and temporal land use changes, through intensity analysis, in the microregion of Presidente Prudente, São Paulo state, in two time intervals, 2004–2007 and 2007–2015, in addition to determining the relevance of pasture in this context. The identification of land uses occurred through the analysis of the spectrum-temporal pattern of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), in such a way that six classes were identified, annual crop, water, sugarcane, forest, pasture and urban area. The categories annual crop and sugarcane had more intense variations of losses and gains in the studied time intervals. The category pasture was the primary supplying source of the area, showing a reduction of approximately 180,000 hectares in the analyzed period, losing area with greater intensity for the categories of annual crop and sugarcane.     

The impacts of warfare and armed conflict on land systems

ABSTRACT

Land-use decisions can change abruptly in response to shocks, and warfare and armed conflicts are among the most drastic and globally frequent shocks. Yet, our understanding of where armed conflict affects land systems, how land-use patterns are impacted, and how far-reaching and persistent these changes are, is partial. We used a spatially detailed dataset on armed conflict and a literature review to explore these questions. A number of key insights emerged from our study: (1) warfare and armed conflict affect land systems mainly in more densely populated areas, regardless of the dominating land use; (2) warfare and armed conflict can impact land systems in major ways, but these effects are diverse and not unidirectional; (3) warfare and armed conflict primarily affects land systems locally, but can forge telecouplings; and (4) although the impact of warfare and armed conflict is often immediate, it can instigate long-lasting land-use legacies.     

Invisible territory: mapping land-use change and power in the Peruvian Amazon

ABSTRACT

This paper follows the evolution of the discourse of agricultural productivity, from its inception in colonial land-use mapping to current land-use changes, using a case study of the expansion of an oil palm company onto the territory of an indigenous community in the Peruvian Amazon that caused large-scale deforestation. Drawing on analytical tools of political ecology and insights from historical geographythis paper shows how current soil and land classification, forest usufruct rules, and forest designations under the 2011 Forest and Wildlife law stem from a colonial discourse of agricultural productivity. This discourse excludes other forms of land-use, such as indigenous forest management, and the identities and relationships bound up in those. This research contributes to an understanding of how the processes that seek to quantify and determine land-use change are historically embedded in western ideas of agricultural productivity.     

Mapping and evaluating sugarcane expansion in Brazil’s savanna using MODIS and intensity analysis: a case-study from the state of Tocantins

In Brazil, the main biofuel crop is sugarcane, and with its rapid expansion, there is much debate about what land uses and land covers it is replacing, and what are the associated environmental and social impacts. Some argue sugarcane is mainly replacing cattle pasture, thus having minimal impacts on native vegetation and small-scale family farming. In contrast, others claim sugarcane is replacing cropland traditionally under soybeans, rice, beans, and corn. Thus, food security is negatively affected and small-scale family farming livelihoods and culture are threatened. This is a proof-of-concept paper illustrating methods contributing toward the resolution of such debates. First we map land use and cover change in areas undergoing sugarcane expansion using satellite data from MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer); second, we test the hypothesis that sugarcane is replacing traditional annual crops using intensity analysis, via a case study of land change in the municipality of Pedro Afonso, Tocantins in northern Brazil between the 2008–2013 crop years. Maps matched reference data with overall agreements between 87–91%. Intensity analysis confirmed sugarcane is replacing annual crops much more than cattle pasture and other land uses and covers, pointing to particular economic and social processes driving land change.     

Application of analytical hierarchy process and geographic information systems in land-use suitability evaluation: a case study of Dümrek village (Çanakkale,Turkey)

This study used both analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and geographic information systems (GIS) to make a land-use suitability analysis for the village of Dümrek, NW Turkey. Primarily, alternative land uses for agriculture, meadow–pasture and forest were determined along with criteria for these alternatives and a hierarchical structure was produced and used to determine the weights of the criteria. Spatial data were identified by means of GIS and calculations were made using the suitability values specified and weights obtained from AHP. Suitability maps were then produced for the above land use alternatives. Subsequently, a synthesized suitability map was formed from these maps. According to the weights specified by AHP, the order of land use preferences among the alternatives for rural development of Dümrek was agriculture, forest and meadow. The synthesized suitability map showed that the areas allocated for forest and agriculture were close to the present ratios of use; however, meadow land, which does not exist at present, should be allocated as a land use to constitute 12.5% of the study area. Achieving sustainability in land use is possible by planners and administrators considering results obtained from land suitability mapping studies at the stage of allocating land uses. The method applied in this research is considered useful when taking policy decisions covering the evaluation of rural land use, particularly for subunits of the state administration.