Landscape diversity and associated coping strategies during food shortage periods: evidence from the Sudano-Sahelian region of Burkina Faso

The importance of forest resources for rural communities’ livelihoods has increasingly been recognized over the last three decades. Forests provide food, generate incomes, provide supporting (nutrient cycling, pollination), and regulating (climate, diseases, water regulation and purification) services for agriculture, in addition to their aesthetic, cultural and spiritual role. However, most of the studies on forest resource use do not focus on the role of landscape organization in addressing the impact of climate variability and the risk of food insecurity. This study aims to examine the contribution of woodlands and trees towards decreasing the risk of food insecurity and the importance of landscape structure and composition in coping with food shortages. It took place in two villages in Burkina Faso, on both ends of the woodlands and tree-cover spectrum. We demonstrate that in both landscapes, ecosystem goods, such as shea nuts and fuelwood, represent a safety net for households during food shortage periods. We demonstrate that households shape their adaptive strategies differently depending on the resources available and the structure of the landscape. People living in a landscape with a savannah matrix (Sorobouly) rely on fuelwood trade to purchase cereals, while those living in a landscape with a parkland matrix (Kalembouly) rely on shea nuts. Agricultural, environmental and climate change policies that reinforce the rights of the most vulnerable to access key resources provided by these landscapes and development programs which assure their sustainable use will simultaneously enhance food security and increase their adaptive capacity in the face of climate change and variability.

     

Climate change and crop diversity: farmers’ perceptions and adaptation on the Bolivian Altiplano

Crop diversity is central to traditional risk management practices on the Andean Altiplano and may find renewed importance in adapting to climate change. This study explored the role of crop diversity in farmers’ adaptation actions in eight Aymara communities on the northern Bolivian Altiplano. Using a combination of quantitative and qualitative methods, including multifactor analysis and a community resilience self-assessment, we investigated how farmers’ use of diversity in adaptation is related to their perceptions of crop and variety tolerances and other environmental, social, and economic factors. Few crops and varieties were perceived as tolerant to increasingly intense and unpredictable drought, frost, hail, and pest and disease outbreaks. Some local crops and varieties were perceived as vulnerable to emerging conditions (e.g. oca, papalisa, isaño), whereas bitter potatoes and wild relatives of quinoa and cañahua were perceived as highly stress tolerant and provide food in harsh periods. A total 19% of households surveyed (N = 193) had introduced new crops or varieties—often disease resistant or early maturing—as an adaptive action. Introduction of commercial crops was a common adaptation action, reflecting farmers’ response to warming temperatures and changing economic opportunities, but greater sensitivity of the introduced crops may cause maladaptation. Despite intensification of cropping systems, households continue to maintain a median four potato varieties with different tolerance traits, yet this risk management practice was not perceived as adaptation. Strengthening resilience will require a combination of actions, including maintaining and expanding crop portfolios and restoring soil and ecosystem health, using both traditional and innovative approaches.     

Factors influencing farmers’ decisions on nitrogen fertilizer application in the Liangzihu Lake basin,Central China

Overuse of nitrogen (N) fertilizers in agriculture activities has caused severe water pollution in China. The lack of data at producer level hampers decision makers in the development and implementation of efficient policies to curb excessive N-fertilizer use. In a survey of 300 farm households in the Liangzihu Lake basin, we identified factors associated with farmers’ decisions on N-fertilizer use and application rate. Household survey and multiple linear regression models indicate that the average application rate in the study region is 229 kg N ha^?1, which exceeds the recommended rate for maximum profit for cereal crops (maize, wheat, and rice) in China of 150–180 kg N ha^?1. High N-application rates are associated with low farmland productivity (coefficient = ?15.66, p = 0.02), a high share of off-farm income (coefficient = 27.14, p = 0.003), and a low education level of the household head (coefficient = ?10.83, p = 0.039). Neither physical infrastructure nor access to input markets appears to be related to N-application rates. It may be concluded that excessive use of N in agriculture of Central China is mainly a problem of insufficient awareness and high share of off-farm income.     

Vegetation dynamics and climate change on the Loess Plateau,China: 1982–2011

Monitoring the dynamics of vegetation growth and its response to climate change is important to understand the mechanisms underlying ecosystem behaviors. This study investigated the relationship between vegetation growth and climate change during the growing seasons on the Loess Plateau in China by analyzing the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) derived from the Land Long Term Data Record dataset from 1982 to 2011. Results showed that growing-season NDVI had increased at an annual rate of 0.0028, particularly in the semi-arid and semi-humid regions. By contrast, the NDVI first increased from 1982 to 1994 (0.0013 year^?1, P < 0.05) and then decreased from 1994 to 2011 (0.0016 year^?1, P < 0.05) in the arid region. Temperature had a positive effect on NDVI in most periods within and across seasons in the semi-humid region but had no significant effect in the arid region. Precipitation had a positive effect on NDVI in the arid region in summer and in the semi-arid region in autumn. Summer precipitation was important for autumn vegetation growth in the arid region, whereas summer temperature increased autumn vegetation growth in the semi-arid and semi-humid regions. Further analyses supported the lag-time effects of climate change on vegetation growth on the Loess Plateau. Precipitation shifts had 15- to 18-month time lag effects on vegetation growth in the three climate regions. Vegetation NDVI had a 17-month lag response to temperature in the semi-arid region. Human activities should not be neglected in analyzing the relationship between vegetation growth and climate change on the Loess Plateau.     

Long-term simulation of effects of energy crop cultivation on nitrogen leaching and surface water quality in Saxony/Germany

The production of energy crops in Germany is a growing agronomic sector and is expected to occupy a substantial share of farmland in the near future. At the same time, there are concerns that energy crops might cause increased nitrogen pollution of soil water, surface water and groundwater. Therefore, the Federal State of Saxony, Germany, funded a study on potential effects of an intensified cultivation of energy crops. In frame of this study, we used the Web GIS-based model STOFFBILANZ to simulate N leaching from the rooting zone and N loads of surface water for a reference scenario and an energy crop scenario. For the reference scenario, we used data representing the crop cultivation for the year 2005 at municipality level. We found that the total loads for N leaching from the rooting zone of cropland are highest for the loess region (8,067 t year^?1), followed by mountainous region (6,797 t year^?1) and lowland (5,443 t year^?1). However, highest N fluxes in the leachate from rooting zones have been simulated for lowland (40.6 kg ha^?1 year^?1) and mountainous region (37.1 kg ha^?1 year^?1), while nitrate concentrations of leachate were highest for the lowland (101.8 mg l^?1). In terms of diffuse N input into surface water, the mountainous region is the most important source area (total N load 6,380 t year^?1, flux 34.6 kg ha^?1 year^?1). Retention by in-stream processes accounts for 15 % (3,784 t year^?1) of the total N load leaving the study area (25,136 t year^?1). In the 2020 energy crop scenario, shares of rape and silage maize (id., ensiled corn) were limited for each municipality to a maximum of 25 and 33 %, respectively. The conversion of grasslands to crop farming was not allowed. Under these conditions, we found slight to substantial reductions of nitrogen loads for leachate from the rooting zone and for surface waters. The simulated reduction depends strongly on local conditions. Only small reductions (ca. 4–8 %) were found for the lowlands and mountainous regions of Saxony, while reductions for the loess region were substantial (ca. 22 %). A major outcome of our study is that the cultivation of energy crops might reduce N loss if certain preconditions are assumed, for example, without conversion of grasslands to crop farming. However, effects might vary widely depending on local conditions.     

Climate adaptation of food value chains: the implications of varying consumer acceptance

Despite there being considerable research and knowledge surrounding the risks of climate change on agricultural productivity, fewer studies have examined risks from a whole-of-chain perspective (i.e. from producer to consumer) and the perceptions of consumers about the climate adaptation strategies of food businesses. This paper presents the findings of a survey of 1532 Australian consumers and how they might respond to a food company’s climate adaptation strategy. Three respondent archetypes, ‘Eco-warriors’ (n = 557), ‘Undecideds’ (n = 600) and ‘Abdicators’ (n = 375), were identified based on their perceptions of risks associated with climate change and their attitudes towards climate adaptation. Further analysis was carried out to understand how each group of respondents would respond to adaptation strategies employed by food companies. Based on the findings of this study, two main challenges are presented for food value chains: (1) translating consumer needs and preferences to niche opportunities arising from adaptation and (2) understanding how best to communicate adaptation benefits based on varying attitudes and information needs. By addressing these challenges, synergies between adaptation goals and competitive strategies in food value chains may be achieved.     

Climate change/variability and food systems: evidence from the Afram Plains,Ghana

While there are many studies of the impacts of climate change and variability on food production, few studies are devoted to a comprehensive assessment of impacts on food systems. Results of a survey of food systems and household adaptation strategies in three communities in the Afram Plains, Ghana, reveal how extreme climatic events affect rural food production, transportation, processing and storage. Adaptation strategies implemented by the three communities during past droughts serve as a foundation for planning responses to future climate change. Results of this study suggest that food security in this region—where droughts and floods are expected to become more severe due to climate change—could be enhanced by increasing farm-based storage facilities; improving the transportation system, especially feeder roads that link food production areas and major markets; providing farmers with early warning systems; extending credit to farmers; and the use of supplementary irrigation. This study also indicates that some cultural practices, particularly those that prohibit the consumption of certain foods, may reduce the resilience of some individuals and ethnic groups to food system disruptions. Understanding the local context and the responses of households is critical to the development of effective strategies for reducing the potential adverse impacts of climatic change on food security in rural Ghana.     

Which crop production system is more efficient in energy use: wheat or barley?

Efficient use of energy helps to achieve increased production and productivity and contributes to the economy, profitability, and competitiveness of agricultural sustainability of rural communities. Evaluation of wheat and barley production systems in view of energy balance was conducted in Khorasan Razavi Province, Iran. Data were collected by using a face-to-face questionnaire from wheat and barley fields in 2011. Results revealed that total energy input for wheat was 51,040 MJ ha^?1 and for barley 44,866; in wheat and barley systems, renewable energy was consumed by 25.43 and 23.53 %, while non-renewable energy was consumed by 74.57 and 76.47 %, respectively. Energy use efficiency, energy productivity, and net energy were 1.7 kg MJ^?1, 0.088 kg MJ^?1, and 35,987 MJ ha^?1 in wheat system and 1.83 kg MJ^?1, 0.092 kg MJ^?1, and 33,833 MJ ha^?1 in barley system, respectively. Energy intensiveness in wheat fields (61.84 MJ $^?1) was higher than in barley fields (58.71 MJ $^?1). Also, benefit-to-cost ratio in wheat system (1.59) was higher than in barley system (1.35). In general, production in barley fields was more sustainable than wheat production because, in view of ecological indices such as amount of energy use and renewable energy consumption, it was more environment-friendly production.     

Direct N2O emission from agricultural soils in Poland between 1960 and 2009

Nitrogen fertilization (N) is commonly known as a main source of direct nitrous oxide (N₂O) emission from agricultural soils. An area of 38 % of the total land surface of Poland was covered by agricultural soils in 2009. In this paper, we aimed at analyzing data regarding the land exploitation for 13 selected subareas of Poland between 1960 and 2009. Seven out of the 13 subareas studied are located in the West (area A), and six subareas are located in southeast of Poland (area B). The total area covered by large farms (>20 ha) differed largely, between area A (10.6 %) and area B (0.9 %) in 2009. Both areas varied in terms of the amount of fertilizers used annually, average crop yield and crop structure. Average direct emissions of N₂O from agricultural soils were 1.66 ± 0.09 kg N₂O–N ha^?1 a^?1 for area A, 1.39 ± 0.07 kg N₂O–N ha^?1 a^?1 for area B and 1.46 ± 0.07 kg N₂O–N ha^?1 a^?1 for the whole country between 1960 and 2009.     

Impacts of climate change on land-use and wetland productivity in the Prairie Pothole Region of North America

Wetland productivity in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of North America is closely linked to climate. A warmer and drier climate, as predicted, will negatively affect the productivity of PPR wetlands and the services they provide. The effect of climate change on wetland productivity, however, will not only depend on natural processes (e.g., evapotranspiration), but also on human responses. Agricultural land use, the predominant use in the PPR, is unlikely to remain static as climate change affects crop yields and prices. Land use in uplands surrounding wetlands will further affect wetland water budgets and hence wetland productivity. The net impact of climate change on wetland productivity will therefore depend on both the direct effects of climate change on wetlands and the indirect effects on upland land use. We examine the effect of climate change and land-use response on semipermanent wetland productivity by combining an economic model of agricultural land-use change with an ecological model of wetland dynamics. Our results suggest that the climate change scenarios evaluated are likely to have profound effects on land use in the North and South Dakota PPR, with wheat displacing other crops and pasture. The combined pressure of land-use and climate change significantly reduces wetland productivity. In a climate scenario with a +4 °C increase in temperature, our model predicts that almost the entire region may lack the wetland productivity necessary to support wetland-dependent species.     

Assessment of physicochemical characteristics of Ganga Canal water quality in Uttarakhand

Assessment of physicochemical parameters of Ganga Canal water was carried out during 2012–2013 at Haridwar (Uttarakhand) with two different sites, i.e., Bhimgoda Barrage (site 1—control site) and Bahadrabad (site 2—contaminated site), where canal water flows with loads of pollution from highly commercial and industrial areas. During investigation, maximum turbidity (287.72 ± 56.28 JTU), total solids (1167.60 ± 303.90 mg l^?1), free CO₂ (1.88 ± 0.22 mg l^?1), total hardness (60.14 ± 1.13 mg l^?1), pH (7.1 ± 0.13), nitrate (0.048 ± 0.010), nitrite (0.019 ± 0.001), biochemical oxygen demand (2.866 ± 1.098), chemical oxygen demand (6.8 ± 2.61) and phosphate (0.087 ± 0.015), while minimum velocity (1.71 ± 0.19 ms^?1), transparency (0.12 ± 0.08 m) and dissolved oxygen (7.95 ± 0.44 mg l^?1) were recorded in monsoon season at site 2 in comparison with site 1. The mean values of these parameters were compared with WHO and ISI standards and found significant differences (p < 0.05) in the mean values of turbidity, total solids, pH, dissolved oxygen, free CO₂ and total hardness with sampling sites. The turbidity of both the sites 1 and 2 was recorded above the permissible limit. Turbidity of site 2 is much higher than of site 1, so it is counted as more polluted. The values of the studied parameters were more during monsoon season and summer season at site 2 as compared to site 1. The results indicated that most of the physicochemical parameters from Ganga Canal system were within or at periphery in comparison with permissible limit of ISI and WHO for drinking water and therefore may be suitable for domestic purposes, but it requires perceptible consideration due to intense changes in climate and increase in pollution.     

Heat stress and crop yields in the Mediterranean basin: impact on expected insurance payouts

Insurance programmes have been indicated as a tool to reduce the economic risk associated with climate change, and crop growth simulation models can be used effectively to assess future trends in crop insurance payouts. This paper assesses the economic role of increasing weather extremes under future climate change on the expected insurance payouts for durum wheat (Triticum turgidum L. spp. durum) over the Mediterranean basin, focusing attention on the effects of heat stresses (HSs). A crop growth simulation, Sirius Quality version 2 (SQ2), calibrated for three varieties (long, medium and short growth cycle) was applied on seven sites under present (1975–1990) and future climate conditions (2030–2050) obtained from five regional circulation models under SRES scenario A1b. The intensity of HSs at anthesis was included as reducing factor of yield originally simulated by SQ2 calculated according to a specific empirical model. Simulated yields were then fitted to the most appropriate distribution, which was used to calculate the expected payouts according to the probability of yields being below a guaranteed level. We found that the simulated crop yields were, in general, negatively skewed and that Weibull probability density function (PDF), admitting negative skewing, provided the best performances in their fitting. The simulation of HSs modified the original shape of the Weibull PDF by increasing the skewness of the distribution. The results of the insurance model indicated that the modification of crop PDFs induced by HSs led to a general increase in payouts with respect to unstressed conditions, with a marked difference between present (+11 %, on average for the selected sites) and future periods (+25 %). When compared to the present, a general decrease in payouts (?1.1 %) was observed when HSs were not included in the simulations. Conversely, HSs impact resulted in a general increase in payouts (+10.3 %) where the highest increase was detected for the long growth cycle variety (+16.6 %) and the lowest for that with short growth cycle (?1.6 %). These results emphasize the importance of the appropriate characterization of crop yield distribution, the economic implications of HSs in a risk management context and a possible strategy to cope with climate change and variability.     

Dividivi tannins: an ecological product for water-based drilling fluids

Modified tannins are used as deflocculant additives in the formulation of water-based drilling fluids (WBDF) for drilling operations in any scenario. Due to their high heavy metals content, these additives are toxic and hazardous for any environmental scenario. Deflocculant efficiency of unmodified tannins (UDT) extracted from fruit pods of “dividivi” (Caesalpinia coriaria) as an additive for WBDF was assessed. Raw materials for UDT elaboration come from the rural and sustainable exploitation of natural occurring dividivi trees, growing in dry tropical forests in Anzoátegui state (Orinoco Oil Belt, eastern Venezuela). The tannins extract, in the form of dividivi fruit powder, contains 47.0 % of total tannins (hydrolyzable tannins plus condensed tannins), of which 67.4 % corresponds to hydrolyzable tannins. Dividivi tannins in WBDF showed nine (9) times deflocculant efficiency than heavy metals commercial modified tannins. Moreover, commercial modified tannins do not improve their deflocculant efficiency with increased tannin content. Ecotoxicological studies were carried out for WBDF formulations with UDT, using freshwater microalgae Scenedesmus dimorphus as chronic toxicity bioindicator. Toxicity bioassays performed with these microalgae did not show significant effects on its population growth. The EC₅₀ values resulted in over 100,000 mg L^?1, and these formulations were therefore considered non-toxic. Values of LC₅₀ obtained this time with Poecilia reticulata, as acute toxicity bioindicator are around 100,000 mg L^?1, with no significant effects on population mortality. Thus, WBDF formulated with UDT can be considered non-toxic formulations for populations of this freshwater fish. From the social perspective, the use of UDT in WBDF fosters organized communities economical activities based on the maintenance of a sustainable supply chain for processing fruits in a quantity enough to obtain three thousand seven hundred fifty kilograms (3750 Kg). The UDT so obtained was used as deflocculant in four (4) oil wells producing excellent performance and relevant savings compared with commercial modified tannin.     

Regional climate sensitivity of wetland environments in Rwanda: the need for a location-specific approach

Wetlands are sustaining large communities of people in Rwanda where 10 % of its land surface consists of many local wetlands. Sustainable future management of these numerous wetlands requires a reliable inventory of their location and a dynamic quantitative characterization that allows assessment of their climate change sensitivity. The aim of this study was to assess the importance of climatic factors for determining wetland location at different regional scales. Wetland locations were analyzed and statistically modeled using their location factors with logistic regression. Wetland location probability was determined using topographic (elevation, slope), hydrological (contributing area) and climatic (temperature and rainfall) location factors. A wetland location probability map was made that demonstrated a calibration accuracy of 87.9 % correct at national level compared to an existing inventory, displaying even better fits at subnational level (reaching up to 98 % correct). A validation accuracy of 86.2 % was obtained using an independently collected dataset. A sensitivity analysis was applied to the threshold values used as cutoff value between wetland/non-wetland, demonstrating a robust performance. The developed models were used in a sensitivity scenario analysis to assess future wetland location probability to changes in temperature and rainfall. In particular, wetlands in the central regions of Rwanda demonstrate a high sensitivity to changes in temperature (1 % increase causes a net probable wetland area decline by 12.4 %) and rainfall (+1 % causes a net increase by 1.6 %). This potentially significant impact on wetland number and location probability indicates that climate-sensitive future planning of wetland use is required in Rwanda.     

Recent changes in flood preparedness of private households and businesses in Germany

Using the focusing event framework, a comprehensive analysis of private households’ and businesses’ preparedness was undertaken in the aftermath of the 2002 and 2006 flood events on the Elbe River in Germany. In August 2002, preparedness of households (n = 235) and businesses (n = 103) was low: 30% of the households and 54% of the businesses took no precautionary measures before the flood event. Many undertaken emergency measures were ineffective, since only 26% of all households knew how to react when the flood warning came, and only 9% of businesses had an emergency plan in place. Due to this extreme flood, double-loop learning occurred in many households and businesses, so that many did implement precautionary measures. The distribution of adopted precautionary measures for households fits well to Preisendörfer’s low-cost hypothesis, but does not apply for businesses. Only 10% of the households (n = 112), but still 29% of the businesses (n = 41) were unprepared before the flood in 2006. Significant improvement in flood preparedness activities is still necessary. Particularly for businesses, regulatory programs and programs encouraging proactive behaviour should be implemented. The focusing event framework proofed to be a useful tool for a differentiated analysis of the responses to and learning due to a disaster also in the commercial and private sector.     

Contrasting impacts of climate change across seasons: effects on flatfish cohorts

The Senegal sole, Solea senegalensis, is a species of flatfish that has several distinct cohorts of 0-group juveniles which use estuarine nurseries in summer and winter. The early cohort is more abundant and grows faster than the late cohort that stays in the nurseries during winter; however, climate warming may have an impact on the dynamics of this species’ juveniles. This study aimed to compare mortality, metabolic response and growth of S. senegalensis juveniles at different temperatures, reflecting present-day temperature (winter—12 °C; summer—24 °C) and future temperature (plus 3 °C) conditions, in estuarine nurseries in the southern European population. Mortality was low at 12 °C, being only 10 %, increasing to 30 % at 15 °C, 40 % at 24 °C and at 27 °C it hit 70 %. Metabolic rate increased steadily with increasing temperatures, yet it increased steeply from 24 to 27 °C. Thermal sensitivity was high for the temperature interval between 24 and 27 °C. Growth was very slow at 12 °C, at a rate of 0.03 mm day^?1, increasing to 0.22 mm day^?1 at 15 °C, and to 0.60 mm day^?1, at 24 °C. However, at 27 °C growth rapidly declined to 0.12 mm day^?1. Warming will be beneficial for the late cohort, resulting in a major increase in growth. However, the early cohort will not benefit from warming, due to high mortality and arrested growth, which clearly indicates that this species is under severe thermal stress at 27 °C. Thus, here we show, for the first time, that climate change may induce contrasting seasonal impacts on fish bio-ecology and physiology, namely in species with several cohorts over the course of the year. Phenotypic and/or genotypic plasticity may limit the impacts of climate change.     

Addressing food supply chain and consumption inefficiencies: potential for climate change mitigation

Globally, more than 30 % of all food that is produced is ultimately lost and/or wasted through inefficiencies in the food supply chain. In the developed world this wastage is centred on the last stage in the supply chain; the end-consumer throwing away food that is purchased but not eaten. In contrast, in the developing world the bulk of lost food occurs in the early stages of the supply chain (production, harvesting and distribution). Excess food consumption is a similarly inefficient use of global agricultural production; with almost 1 billion people now classed as obese, 842 million people are suffering from chronic hunger. Given the magnitude of greenhouse gas emissions from the agricultural sector, strategies that reduce food loss and wastage, or address excess caloric consumption, have great potential as effective tools in global climate change mitigation. Here, we examine the challenges of robust quantification of food wastage and consumption inefficiencies, and their associated greenhouse gas emissions, along the supply chain. We find that the quality and quantity of data are highly variable within and between geographical regions, with the greatest range tending to be associated with developing nations. Estimation of production-phase GHG emissions for food wastage and excess consumption is found to be similarly challenging on a global scale, with use of IPCC default (Tier 1) emission factors for food production being required in many regions. Where robust food waste data and production-phase emission factors do exist—such as for the UK—we find that avoiding consumer-phase food waste can deliver significant up-stream reductions in GHG emissions from the agricultural sector. Eliminating consumer milk waste in the UK alone could mitigate up to 200 Gg CO₂e year^?1; scaled up globally, we estimate mitigation potential of over 25,000 Gg CO₂e year^?1.     

Climate change impacts on a pine stand in Central Siberia

The objective of this paper is to analyse the impacts of climate change on a pine forest stand in Central Siberia (Zotino) to assess benefits and risks for such forests in the future. We use the regional statistical climate model STARS to develop a set of climate change scenarios assuming a temperature increase by mid-century of 1, 2, 3 and 4 K. The process-based forest growth model 4C is applied to a 200-year-old pine forest to analyse impacts on carbon and water balance as well as the risk of fire under these climate change scenarios. The climate scenarios indicate precipitation increases mainly during winter and decreases during summer with increasing temperature trend. They cause rising forest productivity up to about 20 % in spite of increasing respiration losses. At the same time, the water-use efficiency increases slightly from 2.0 g C l^?1 H₂O under current climate to 2.1 g C l^?1 H₂O under 4 K scenario indicating that higher water losses from increasing evapotranspiration do not appear to lead to water limitations for the productivity at this site. The simulated actual evaporation increases by up to 32 %, but the climatic water balance decreases by up to 20 % with increasing temperature trend. In contrast, the risk of fire indicated by the Nesterov index clearly increases. Our analysis confirms increasing productivity of the boreal pine stand but also highlights increasing drought stress and risks from abiotic disturbances which could cancel out productivity gains.     

Assessing links between crop diversity and food self-sufficiency in three agroecological regions of Nepal

Increasing on-farm crop diversity is one agroecological approach to enhancing food self-sufficiency that helps small-scale farmers keep their food systems stable by reducing risks associated with stressors, such as a pest outbreaks or droughts. But understanding how crop diversity and food self-sufficiency are related is unknown. To explore this complex relation, this study presents household data (n = 1664) from Nepal to test the hypothesis that families with high crop diversity enjoy greater household food self-sufficiency. Data are presented for three districts that are representative of three distinct agroecological regions of the country: (1) Sarlahi, which is affluent, market-oriented, and on the plains; (2) Makwanpur District in the hills, which has well-developed integrated farm production; and (3) the mountainous District of Humla, which has the poorest quality environment and is the most remote. Results show that in the Humla District, families with greater crop diversity were more self-sufficient. In contrast, farmers in Makwanpur, who have already established a high degree of crop diversity based on vegetable production, do not benefit from additional crop diversity in terms of their ability to provide for themselves. Finally, data from Sarlahi show that families’ food self-sufficiency benefits from crop diversification. We conclude that boosting crop diversity is a viable strategy for maintaining stability in food systems, but this varies depending on the accessibility of a farm and, in particular, access to markets.