Risk communication in emergency response to a simulated extreme flood

Risk communication in flood incident management can be improved through developing hydrometeorological and engineering models used as tools for communicating risk between scientists and emergency management professionals. A range of such models and tools was evaluated by participating flood emergency managers during a 4-day, real-time simulation of an extreme event in the Thamesmead area in the Thames estuary close to London, England. Emergency managers have different communication needs and value new tools differently, but the indications are that a range of new tools could be beneficial in flood incident management. Provided they are communicated large model uncertainties are not necessarily unwelcome among flood emergency managers. Even so they are cautious about sharing the ownership of weather and flood modelling uncertainties.     

Use of computer models of flood inundation to facilitate communication in flood risk management

It is now widely recognised that good communication between multi-disciplinary stakeholders is central to effective flood risk management. Recent developments in Geographical Information Systems, increased availability of accurate digital terrain models from remotely sensed data sources and improved graphical computer interfaces have made the outputs from computer models of flood inundation easily accessible to the stakeholder community. As a consequence, predictions from such models are now being used routinely as a means of communication between engineers and other stakeholders in flood risk management. This paper provides a review of the modelling methods most appropriate for flood risk communication. These are one-dimensional models which are suitable for simulating flood risk at a catchment or sub-catchment scale and appropriate for communicating the impact of strategic flood management decisions and two-dimensional models which can be applied across a range of scales but, are now being regularly applied at the relatively small scale, less than 10 km², where they have the potential to inform and communicate disaster management decisions. The role of such models in communicating between modellers and non-modellers by providing a means for immediate visualisation of “the future” is discussed and illustrated by application to two case studies.     

Use of computer models of flood inundation to facilitate communication in flood risk management

It is now widely recognised that good communication between multi-disciplinary stakeholders is central to effective flood risk management. Recent developments in Geographical Information Systems, increased availability of accurate digital terrain models from remotely sensed data sources and improved graphical computer interfaces have made the outputs from computer models of flood inundation easily accessible to the stakeholder community. As a consequence, predictions from such models are now being used routinely as a means of communication between engineers and other stakeholders in flood risk management. This paper provides a review of the modelling methods most appropriate for flood risk communication. These are one-dimensional models which are suitable for simulating flood risk at a catchment or sub-catchment scale and appropriate for communicating the impact of strategic flood management decisions and two-dimensional models which can be applied across a range of scales but, are now being regularly applied at the relatively small scale, less than 10 km², where they have the potential to inform and communicate disaster management decisions. The role of such models in communicating between modellers and non-modellers by providing a means for immediate visualisation of “the future” is discussed and illustrated by application to two case studies.     

Models of best practice in flood risk communication and management

Risk communication plays an increasingly central role in flood risk management, but there is a variety of conflicting advice about what does – and should – get transmitted, why, how, and to whom. The aim of this paper is to elucidate the underlying normative and conceptual models on which those competing assessments of ‘good’ risk communication depend. To that end, the paper identifies four broad models, or approaches, to risk communication: a risk message model of information transfer; a risk instrument model of behavioural change; a risk dialogue model of participatory deliberation; and a risk government model of self-regulation and normalization. These models differ in their theoretical and disciplinary origins and associated philosophical and political commitments, and consequently they define the basic purpose, practice, and future prospects of flood risk communication in quite different ways. Unless these different models of ‘good’ risk communication are acknowledged and understood, efforts to identify best practice for flood risk management are likely to produce inconsistent, if not contradictory, recommendations.     

How emergency managers (mis?)interpret forecasts

Emergency managers who work on floods and other weather‐related hazards constitute critical frontline responders to disasters. Yet, while these professionals operate in a realm rife with uncertainty related to forecasts and other unknowns, the influence of uncertainty on their decision‐making is poorly understood. Consequently, a national‐level survey of county emergency managers in the United States was administered to examine how they interpret forecast information, using hypothetical climate, flood, and weather scenarios to simulate their responses to uncertain information. The study revealed that even emergency managers with substantial experience take decision shortcuts and make biased choices, just as do members of the general population. Their choices vary depending on such features as the format in which probabilistic forecasts are presented and whether outcomes are represented as gains or losses. In sum, forecast producers who consider these decision processes when developing and communicating forecasts could help to improve flood preparation and potentially reduce disaster losses.     

New tools for emergency managers: an assessment of obstacles to use and implementation

This paper focuses on the role of the formal response community's use of social media and crowdsourcing for emergency managers (EMs) in disaster planning, response and recovery in the United States. In‐depth qualitative interviews with EMs on the Eastern seaboard at the local, state and federal level demonstrate that emergency management tools are in a state of transition—from formal, internally regulated tools for crisis response to an incorporation of new social media and crowdsourcing tools. The first set of findings provides insight into why many EMs are not using social media, and describes their concerns that result in fear, uncertainty and doubt. Second, this research demonstrates how internal functioning and staffing issues within these agencies present challenges. This research seeks to examine the dynamics of this transition and offer lessons for how to improve its outcomes—critical to millions of people across the United States.     

Emergency medical preparedness during the 2006 World Cup in Frankfurt, Germany

This paper describes emergency medical preparedness during FIFA (Fédération Internationale de Football Association) World Cup matches in Frankfurt, Germany, in 2006. The methods employed were document analysis and personal observation of games over five days in June–July 2006. The medical authorities in Frankfurt drew on a wide range of scientific literature and experiences to elaborate a National Concept. They paid attention to different models of handling mass catastrophes in shaping the final version of the document. The participation of designated authorities, associations, and volunteer organisations was coordinated sufficiently and the games in Frankfurt proceeded without great incident, even though more than 300,000 people in total attended. The adopted emergency medical procedure was appropriate for a mass gathering event. Official and volunteer organisations collaborated precisely in emergency preparedness. While one uniform concept for all mass gatherings events cannot be developed, case reports and experiences are useful tools.     

The Risks from Flooding: Which Risks and Whose Perception?

Four main groups are considered in relation to the risk from flooding: the engineers involved in the design of flood alleviation schemes, emergency planners, the public, including both the population at risk from flooding and the rest of the population who will bear all or most of the cost of flood alleviation schemes and the researchers, such as geographers and economists concerned with flood hazards and scheme appraisal. It is argued that these different groups vary significantly in their selection and definition of risks from flooding as a focus of concern and that their definition of risk influences their expectations about future events and the appropriate response to those events. But the different groups share two tendencies: the expectation that the future will be a replication of the past; and the neglect of "uncertain uncertainties" in favour of known uncertainties of risk.     

Collaborative emergency management: better community organising, better public preparedness and response

Community coordination requires communication and planning of precautions to take when faced with a severe threat of disaster. The unique case of the four Florida hurricanes of 2004--Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne--is used here to assess community responses to repeated threats of hurricanes. The paper examines how effectiveness in coordinating community disaster response efforts affects future public preparedness. The findings suggest that pre-season planning, open communication between emergency managers and elected officials, and the use of technology all had a significant impact on community responses. The repeated threat scenario indicates that emergency managers must work vigilantly to keep residents informed of the seriousness of a situation. The study describes how emergency managers in Florida countered public complacency during four hurricanes in six weeks. The strategies identified as useful by public managers in the context of hurricanes are applicable to other natural and man-made disasters.     

Addressing challenges for future strategic‐level emergency management: reframing,networking, and capacity‐building

The mounting frequency and intensity of natural hazards, alongside growing interdependencies between social‐technical and ecological systems, are placing increased pressure on emergency management. This is particularly true at the strategic level of emergency management, which involves planning for and managing non‐routine, high‐consequence events. Drawing on the literature, a survey, and interviews and workshops with Australia's senior emergency managers, this paper presents an analysis of five core challenges that these pressures are creating for strategic‐level emergency management. It argues that emphasising ‘emergency management’ as a primary adaptation strategy is a retrograde step that ignores the importance of addressing socio‐political drivers of vulnerabilities. Three key suggestions are presented that could assist the country's strategic‐level emergency management in tackling these challenges: (i) reframe emergency management as a component of disaster risk reduction rather than them being one and the same; (ii) adopt a network governance approach; and (iii) further develop the capacities of strategic‐level emergency managers.     

Climate forecasts in disaster management: Red Cross flood operations in West Africa, 2008

In 2008, the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) used a seasonal forecast for West Africa for the first time to implement an Early Warning, Early Action strategy for enhanced flood preparedness and response. Interviews with disaster managers suggest that this approach improved their capacity and response. Relief supplies reached flood victims within days, as opposed to weeks in previous years, thereby preventing further loss of life, illness, and setbacks to livelihoods, as well as augmenting the efficiency of resource use. This case demonstrates the potential benefits to be realised from the use of medium‐to‐long‐range forecasts in disaster management, especially in the context of potential increases in extreme weather and climate‐related events due to climate variability and change. However, harnessing the full potential of these forecasts will require continued effort and collaboration among disaster managers, climate service providers, and major humanitarian donors.     

Floods on opposite German borders

Abstract

The Rhine and the Oder rivers have many similarities. Both are subject to comparable hydroclimate regimes, are flood prone, are international waterways and have been extensively modified by humans over many hundreds of years. Yet the recent history of flooding on the German sections of these rivers is distinctively different. Most communities along the Rhine seem to take floods in stride whereas along the Oder they have been highly disruptive. The disruption has provided a mechanism for helping to integrate disparate parts of the newly reunified German states emergency management system and has highlighted continuing differences between Polish and German flood experiences.     

Interactions between scientific uncertainty and flood management decisions: Two case studies in Colorado

Flood management policies in the United States rely on scientific information about the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation and runoff. Yet, the available information is inherently uncertain because of the complexity of meteorological and hydrological processes. In mountainous areas, flood risk can vary greatly even within short distances depending on local climate, topography, soil characteristics, and land use. This paper describes two Colorado cases in which policy makers were presented with conflicting scientific estimates: revision of the Fort Collins floodplain map and modification of the Cherry Creek Dam. The case studies demonstrate that uncertainty can have substantial impacts on regulatory processes, public safety, and costs. The analysis considers the differing perspectives of various participants in the flood management processes, illustrating the interplay between uncertainties attributable to scientific issues and values issues. It suggests that attempts to provide a single “best” estimate do not necessarily meet the decision needs of all stakeholders. Conclusions indicate a need to improve communication about uncertainty when scientific estimates areprovided to decision makers. Furthermore, in highly controversial decisions, it may be necessary to reframe the discussion to consider the values issues raised by scientific uncertainty.     

The barriers impeding precautionary behaviours by undocumented immigrants in emergencies: The Hurricane Ike experience in Houston,Texas, USA

Emergency management tends to be planned for legal, resident populations that are responsive to mainstream channels of communication and enforcement. For many areas prone to extreme events and emergencies, populations are also composed of transitory tourists, temporary visitors and migrant workers. This latter group may be a large population and, while not completely invisible to residents, may prefer obscurity and concealment within the social landscape. Tending towards poverty, technologically disconnected and linguistically isolated, undocumented migrants seek employment and attempt to avoid local law enforcement and immigration officials for fear of imprisonment and deportation. In this context, the behaviours prompted by developing public emergencies will be different for undocumented migrants than for the population at large. We examine the experience of 135 Hispanic undocumented migrants in the coastal zone of Houston-Galveston, Texas to understand the factors and issues that influence decision making and behaviours under region-wide mandatory evacuation conditions. Undocumented migrants’ decisions to evacuate rest upon: the presence (or absence) of family and/or children, their access to risk information that they find meaningful and rational and is in harmony with their pre-conceptions about their circumstances, their openness to information that either confirms their experiences or confronts rumour-generated biases they carry, their familiarity with social groups and governmental agencies and the services they offer, and the outcome of their risk analyses that consider the dangers of remaining in situ against the danger of exposing themselves to discovery as ‘illegal aliens’. The results suggest that emergency management plans ought to promote the dispelling of rumours that weaken the effect of emergency communication, promote non-emergency outreach to peripheral populations through community groups, and promote better, basic, non-technical, Spanish-language media through mainstream conduits (i.e. the most commonly watched non-Spanish television channels) that do not require high-tech devices or advanced understanding of visual media tools.     

Contextual influences on national level flood risk communication

With high profile flooding events and increasing risk and probable damages of flooding in the future flood risk management (FRM) in England and Wales has undergone substantial changes over the last decade. The contextual influences on flood risk communication in the areas of flood forecasting, warning and response, spatial planning and development control and flood insurance at a national level are investigated in this paper. Research is based on qualitative interviews with 21 representatives of key organisations and activities at a national level of FRM. Drawing on communication theory the research highlights the key contextual features at play: the characteristics of communication flow through organisations, the importance of policy as a communication tool informed and constrained by flood events, organisational agendas, communication approaches and the development of knowledge and technology. The paper describes the influence of clear policy guidance on activities in certain government FRM communication initiatives and the commercial imperative driving the insurance industry activities.     

Contextual influences on national level flood risk communication

With high profile flooding events and increasing risk and probable damages of flooding in the future flood risk management (FRM) in England and Wales has undergone substantial changes over the last decade. The contextual influences on flood risk communication in the areas of flood forecasting, warning and response, spatial planning and development control and flood insurance at a national level are investigated in this paper. Research is based on qualitative interviews with 21 representatives of key organisations and activities at a national level of FRM. Drawing on communication theory the research highlights the key contextual features at play: the characteristics of communication flow through organisations, the importance of policy as a communication tool informed and constrained by flood events, organisational agendas, communication approaches and the development of knowledge and technology. The paper describes the influence of clear policy guidance on activities in certain government FRM communication initiatives and the commercial imperative driving the insurance industry activities.     

中国与荷兰洪水风险分析方法的比较研究

基于洪水风险的定义,从洪灾发生概率、洪灾后果评估、风险评价指标和防洪标准经济优化决策原则等方面阐述了中荷两国在洪水风险分析研究方面的异同,初步分析了存在差别的原因以及两种方法的特点.在分别应用中国和荷兰现有风险评估方法分析安庆市堤防圈的洪水风险的基础上,探讨了将两国的风险分析方法进行整合的思路.算例表明,将堤防的工程风险与洪水本身出现的水文风险相结合,并考虑在不同洪水位下损失的差异的方法是与洪灾发生机理相符,综合考虑了各种不确定因素的、切合我国洪灾特点的一种值得进一步深入研究的新方法.     

Realising a resilient and sustainable built environment: towards a strategic agenda for the United Kingdom

Recent natural and human-induced emergencies have highlighted the vulnerability of the built environment. Although most emergency events are not entirely unexpected, and the effects can be mitigated, emergency managers in the United Kingdom have not played a sufficiently proactive role in the mitigation of such events. If a resilient and sustainable built environment is to be achieved, emergency management should be more proactive and receive greater input from the stakeholders responsible for the planning, design, construction and operation of the built environment. This paper highlights the need for emergency management to take a more systematic approach to hazard mitigation by integrating more with professions from the construction sector. In particular, design changes may have to be considered, critical infrastructures must be protected, planning policies should be reviewed, and resilient and sustainable agendas adopted by all stakeholders.     

中国大都市群地区的水灾风险与应急管理研究

在经典风险评价理论模型的基础上,结合自然灾害系统理论,建立了简明水灾综合风险评价模型,完成了中国九大都市群的水灾风险评价.结果表明:我国都市群水灾风险呈现出以都市区中心市为核心的(近)圈层状分布;水灾风险由高到低依次为长三角、珠三角、长江中游、京津唐、吉黑、中原、成渝、辽中南和山东半岛都市群.基于上述研究,强调应建立包含水灾综合风险评价、水灾风险应急预案编制与情景模拟以及水灾风险区划与规划的水灾风险应急管理体系.     

Flood risk and inequalities between ethnic groups in the floodplains of England and Wales

Previous research has shown that many vulnerable communities experience disproportional exposure to flood risk. This paper, though, is the first to look at broad ethnic/racial group differences in the United Kingdom. It contends that differences in culture and language, especially those of new immigrants, bestow vulnerabilities on such communities, resulting in a lack of knowledge that enables people to be aware, to be prepared, or to recover expediently after a flood emergency. Using UK 2011 Census data and Environment Agency flood maps, the paper demonstrates that it is the non‐white communities in Wales that confront the most disproportionate level of flood risk: 23 per cent as compared to 11.4 per cent of their white neighbours. In contrast, the difference in flood risk between white and non‐white ethnic/racial groups in regions of England is within a range of plus or minus two per cent, except for in Yorkshire and The Humber where white populations face a much greater risk of flooding.