SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL ANALYSIS OF AGRICULTURAL WATER REQUIREMENTS IN THE GULF COAST OF THE UNITED STATES1

ABSTRACT: Competition for water resources is becoming an increasingly important issue in the southeastern U.S. The potential impacts of future precipitation and runoff estimated by a transient global climate model (HADCM2) on competing water resources in the Southeast has been conducted. Issues of agricultural management, irrigation water withdrawals, and water quality were studied over three time periods: 1974–1993, 2020–2039, and 2080–2099 in five water basins identified previously as exhibiting water-related problems. These basins, which encompass the boundary between Alabama and Mississippi, cover four important agricultural counties in Mississippi. Irrigation water requirements generated by crop growth models for corn, soybeans, and winter wheat were coupled with monthly runoff for the impacted basins estimated by the SWAT water balance model. The results of the study reveal that in the next 20–40 years water availability in the southern portions of the study area will decline as much as 10 percent during times when water requirements for agricultural production are crucial. Maintaining or expanding existing crop yields under future climate regimes may require additional irrigation water and increase competition among other uses such as domestic, industrial, recreational, and ecosystem quality.     

BENEFITS OF TRANSFERRING STREAMFLOW PRIORITY FROM AGRICULTURAL TO NON-AGRICULTURAL USE1

ABSTRACT: In Virginia, as in many states, priority to streamflow is held by riparian landowners who are predominantly agricultural users. The streamfiow may also have a high potential value to non-agricultural users who do not have riparian rights. The potential benefits of transferring streamfiow priority rights from agricultural to non-agricultural use were evaluated using simulation for an eastern Virginia watershed. Lowering irrigators' priority to streamflow reduced crop yields and irrigated returns in some years because of inadequate water supplies. However, the transfer of priorities increased the likelihood that the urban reservoir would be able to withdraw water from the stream without interruption. As a result, priority trades reduced the size of reservoir needed to meet a given water requirement by municipal users. The resulting savings in reservoir construction and maintenance costs more than offset the losses to irrigators. Net savings could be achieved even if the reservoir were required to release water periodically to maintain a minimum level of instream flow. The conclusion is that the state should encourage trading of access to streamflow in order to increase the use efficiency of streamfiows. Alternative means by which the state can facilitate water exchanges are discussed.     

Large‐Scale Fine‐Resolution Hydrological Modeling Using Parameter Regionalization in the Missouri River Basin

This study simulated crop and water yields in the Missouri River Basin (MRB; 1,371,000 km²), one of the largest river basins in the United States, using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) at a fine resolution of 12‐digit Hydrological Unit Codes (HUCs) using the regionalization calibration approach. Very few studies have simulated the entire MRB, and those that have developed were at a coarser resolution of 8‐digit HUCs and were minimally calibrated. The MRB was first divided into three subbasins and was further divided into eleven regions. A “head watershed” was selected in each region and was calibrated for crop and water yields. The parameters from the calibrated head watershed were extrapolated to other subwatersheds in the region to complete comprehensive spatial calibration. The simulated crop yields at the head watersheds were in close agreement with observed crop yields. Spatial validation of the aggregated crop yields resulted in reasonable predictions for all crops except dryland corn in a few regions. Simulated and observed water yields in head watersheds and also in the validation locations were in close agreement in naturalized streams and poor agreement in streams with high groundwater‐surface water interactions and/or reservoirs found upstream of the gauges. Overall, the SWAT model was able to reasonably capture the hydrological and crop growth dynamics occurring in the basin despite some limitations.     

USING CROP YIELD AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATION RELATIONS FOR REGIONAL WATER REQUIREMENT ESTIMATION1

ABSTRACT: Values of dry biomass of corn, sugarcane, sorghum, rice, taro, millet, cotton, cowpeas, soybeans, and velvet beans as related to the evapotranspiration (ET) were studied. The linear regression model was sufficiently accurate to establish the crop dry biomass and ET relations. A water-use efficiency index (WUE), which is defined as the additional crop dry biomass per unit ET, is used in this study. The WUE were grouped into high, medium, and low categories. The WUE varied from greater than 35 kg ha^-1/mm for the high category, between 15 and 35 kg ha^-1/mm for the medium category, and less than 15 kg ha^-1/mm for the low category. Application of the established model to the Everglades Agricultural Area, Florida, showed that the regional El can be predicted from the known regional crop yields. The crop yield and ET relations could be used as a potential tool to improve water resources planning and management practices for crop production.     

USE OF A HYDROLOGIC MODEL IN A BASIN-WIDE WATER ALLOCATION PROCEEDING1

ABSTRACT: The Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation developed a hydrologic model to help analyze the effects of allocating water for consumptive and instream uses in the upper Missouri River basin of Montana. The model, a PC-based FORTRAN program, uses a mass-balance approach to compute monthly streamflows, reservoir operations, hydropower production, and irrigation and municipal water uses throughout the 54,000 square mile basin for a 59-year base period. Simulation results are presented as monthly mean and percentile-exceedence values. The model was run for baseline conditions and six hypothetical water-allocation alternatives. Results were used by staff resource area specialists to assess potential impacts to water quantity and distribution, water rights, water quality, stream channel form, fisheries, wildlife, recreation, hydropower production, and economics. These analyses were presented to the public and the decision-making board in an environmental impact statement (EIS). Though, in many instances, the model did not allow for detailed, site-specific analyses, the model was an important tool and its simulation results formed the hydrologic basis for the EIS.     

OPTIMIZATION OF WATER RESOURCES FOR IRRIGATION IN EAST JORDAN1

The paper describes an approach towards optimal allocation of surface and ground water resources to three agricultural areas in the Jordan Valley under conditions of scarce water supply. The optimizing model allocates water from three main rivers, each with reservoir storage, and from two ground water sources to three irrigation regions. Productivity of irrigation water, expressed as the net present value of the regional agricultural output, but allowing for crop water deficits, is first maximized using nonlinear programming. The allocation process then adopts techniques of linear programming to determine the least cost alternative based on the unit cost of water from each resource at each destination, as it varies with time.     

DEMAND PROJECTIONS CONSIDERING CONSERVATION1

ABSTRACT: Prediction of future water demands depends on the degree to which conservation effects can be anticipated. A model developed for the Corps of Engineers shows that choosing a numerical conservation target to be achieved is more meaningful and yields more predictable results than price or price elasticity manipulations. The method developed and then applied to the Kaneohe Bay region of Oahu considers the following determinants of demand: geographic distribution of the users, indoor and outdoor requirements, time - by year and month of the year, precipitation, historical unit usage rates, gross and irrigable acreage of land uses, price for water, elasticity of demand with respect to price, source of the water supply (local private supplies vs. agency supplies), and the percentage conservation savings anticipated in each future period in indoor and outdoor uses of water in each of 40 possible land uses. While developed for use in Hawaii, the model is applicable generally.     

Predicting soil erosion for alternative land uses

The APEX (Agricultural Policy-Environmental eXtender) model developed in the United States was calibrated for northwestern China's conditions. The model was then used to investigate soil erosion effects associated with alternative land uses at the ZFG (Zi-Fang-Gully) watershed in northwestern China. The results indicated that the APEX model could be calibrated reasonably well (+/-15% errors) to fit those areas with >50% slope within the watershed. Factors being considered during calibration include runoff, RUSLE (Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation) slope length and steepness factor, channel capacity flow rate, floodplain saturated hydraulic conductivity, and RUSLE C factor coefficient. No changes were made in the APEX computer code. Predictions suggest that reforestation is the best practice among the eight alternative land uses (the status quo, all grass, all grain, all grazing, all forest, half tree and half grass, 70% tree and 30% grain, and construction of a reservoir) for control of water runoff and soil erosion. Construction of a reservoir is the most effective strategy for controlling sediment yield although it does nothing to control upland erosion. For every 1 Mg of crop yield, 11 Mg of soil were lost during the 30-yr simulation period, suggesting that expanding land use for food production should not be encouraged on the ZFG watershed. Grass species are less effective than trees in controlling runoff and erosion on steep slopes because trees generally have deeper and more stable root systems.     

VARIABILITY OF SOIL WATER PROPERTIES AND CROP YIELD IN A SLOPED WATERSHED1

ABSTRACT: Spatial distribution of soil and water properties and the correlations between them and crop yield were determined for a natural rainfall environment. Hydraulic conductivity, soil texture, water retention, and soil-water flux were variables used to investigate their relationship to crop yield using multiple regression techniques. Variations in crop yields on a watershed with a 3 to 4 percent slope and moderately erosive soils were related to soil-water characteristics and soil properties along slope and with depth. Climatic conditions to sustain crop growth and yield ranged from inadequate soil water in 1983 to adequate soil water in 1984. Crop yield was predicted with models using both available and measured soil-water content. Available water content provided a better model for the prediction of water yield and does not require field measurements of actual soil-water content. Soil water holding capacity was more significant for predicting crop yield in soils with moderate to high silt content than infiltrability of water into the soil.     

DEEP RESERVOIR THERMAL STRATIFICATION MODEL1

ABSTRACT. A method of predicting reservoir temperature profiles is presented. The model requires monthly averaged meteorological and hydrological data along with reservoir physical characteristics. The one-dimensional profiles are predicted by solving the time-dependent energy equation with an assumed epilimnetic depth and a diffusion coefficient applicable below the epilimnion. The model is verified using an existing reservoir.     

HYDROLOGIC AND ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF DROUGHT UNDER ALTERNATWE POLICY RESPONSES1

ABSTRACT: A severe sustained drought in the Colorado River Basin would cause economic damages throughout the Basin. An integrated hydrologic-economic-institutional model introduced here shows that consumptive water users in headwaters states are particularly vulnerable to very large shortfalls and hence large damages because their rights are effectively junior to downstream users. Chronic shortfalls to consumptive users relying on diversions in excess of rights under the Colorado River Compact are also possible. Nonconsumptive water uses (for hydropower and recreation) are severely affected during the worst drought years as instream flows are reduced and reservoirs are depleted. Damages to these uses exceeds those to consumptive uses, with the value of lost hydropower production the single largest economic impact of a severe sustained drought. Modeling of alternative policy responses to drought suggests three general policy approaches with particular promise for reducing damages. Consumptive use damages can be reduced by over 90 percent through reallocation from low to high valued uses and through reservoir storage strategies which minimize evaporation losses. Reservoir management to preserve minimum power pool levels for hydropower production (and to maintain reservoir recreation) may reduce damages to these nonconsumptive uses by over 30 percent, but it may increase consumptive use shortfalls.     

ECONOMIC AND WATER QUALITY EFFECTS OF VARIABLE AND UNIFORM APPLICATION OF NITROGEN1

ABSTRACT: Nitrogen (N) fertilizer rates for achieving optimum crop yields often vary within a field due to spatial variability in soil moisture and nitrogen content and other crop growth factors. When there is substantial within-field variability in these factors, uniform application of N (UAN) may not be economically efficient in terms of maximizing net return because N is likely to be over-applied in some areas and under-applied in other areas of the field. In addition, over-application can adversely affect water quality. A sample of fields in a Midwestern agricultural watershed is used to test for statistically significant differences in N application rates, crop yields, surface and ground water quality and net returns between UAN and variable application of N (VAN) for four cropping systems. Profitability and water quality benefits of VAN are sensitive to the distribution of soil types within a field. Water quality effects and profitability of UAN and VAN vary with cropping systems. VAN is not uniformly superior to UAN in terms of increasing net returns and improving water quality for the farming systems and watershed evaluated in this study.     

NEW METHODS OF MODELING WATER AVAILABILITY FOR AGRICULTURE UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE: THE U.S. CORNBELT1

ABSTRACT: This paper reports on new methods of linking climate change scenarios with hydrologic, agricultural an water planning models to study future water availability for agriculture, an essential element of sustainability. The study is based on the integration of models of water supply and demand, and of crop growth and irrigation management. Consistent modeling assumptions, available databases, and scenario simulations are used to capture a range of possible future conditions. The linked models include WATBAL for water supply; CERES, SOYGRO, and CROPWAT for crop and irrigation modeling; and WEAP for water demand forecasting, planning and evaluation. These models are applied to the U.S. Cornbelt using forecasts of climate change, agricultural production, population and GDP growth. Results suggest that, at least in the near term, the relative abundance of water for agriculture can be maintained under climate change conditions. However, increased water demands from urban growth, increases in reservoir evaporation and increases in crop consumptive use must be accommodated by timely improvements in crop, irrigation and drainage technology, water management, and institutions. These improvements are likely to require substantial resources and expertise. In the highly irrigated basins of the region, irrigation demand greatly exceeds industrial and municipal demands. When improvements in irrigation efficiency are tested, these basins respond by reducing demand and lessening environmental stress with an improvement in system reliability, effects particularly evident under a high technology scenario. Rain-fed lands in the Cornbelt are not forced to invest in irrigation, but there is some concern about increased water-logging during the spring and consequent required increased investment in agricultural drainage. One major water region in the Cornbelt also provides a useful caveat: change will not necessarily be continuous and monotonic. Under one GCM scenario for the 2010s, the region shows a significant decrease in system reliability, while the scenario for the 2020s shows an increase.     

LOW-INPUT AGRICULTURE AS A GROUND WATER PROTECTION STRATEGY1

ABSTRACT: Protection of ground water quality is of considerable importance to local, state, and federal governments. This study uses a 15-year mathematical programming model to evaluate the effectiveness of low-input agriculture, under alternative policy scenarios, as a strategy to protect ground water quality in Richmond County, Virginia. The analysis considers eight policy alternatives: cost-sharing for green manures, two restrictions on atrazine applications levels, chemical taxation, a restriction on potential chemical and nitrogen levels in ground water only and in surface and ground water, and two types of land retirement programs. The CREAMS and GLEAMS models were used to estimate nitrate and chemical leaching from the crop root zone. The economic model evaluates production practices, policy constraints, and water quality given a long-term profit maximizing objective. The results indicate that low-input agriculture alone may not be an effective ground water protection strategy. The policy impacts include partial adoption of low-input practices, land retirement, and the substitution of chemicals. Only mandatory land retirement policies reduced all chemical and nutrient loadings of ground water; however, they did not promote the use of low-input agricultural practices.     

A REMOTE SENSING APPROACH FOR MODELING WATER RESOURCE USE1

Remote sensing data combined with other spatially referenced data were used to predict water resource use in an irrigated area of Central Oregon. Crop type and irrigation method were determined using color infrared aerial photography and thermal infrared imagery, respectively. These data were combined with crop consumptive use and irrigation method application efficiency values to determine total water applied to a transect sample through the heart of the study area. This information, when integrated with data on canal leakage and storage reservoir seepage, allowed the researcher to predict total water use for the entire management unit. The model developed allowed the researcher to attain results accurate to within 92.0 percent of actual values, suggesting that predictive water use models which use such techniques have tremendous potential for providing water resource managers with near real-time statistics required for making wise management decisions.     

STOCHASTIC DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING FOR OPTIMUM RESERVOIR OPERATION1

ABSTRACT. For a multipurpose single reservoir a deterministic optimal operating policy can be readily devised by the dynamic programming method. However, this method can only be applied to sets of deterministic stream flows as might be used repetitively in a Monte Carlo study or possibly in a historical study. This paper reports a study in which an optimal operating policy for a multipurpose reservoir was determined, where the optimal operating policy is stated in terms of the state of the reservoir indicated by the storage volume and the river flow in the preceding month and uses a stochastic dynamic programming approach. Such a policy could be implemented in real time operation on a monthly basis or it could be used in a design study. As contrasted with deterministic dynamic programming, this method avoids the artificiality of using a single set of stream flows. The data for this study are the conditional probabilities of the stream flow in successive months, the physical features of the reservoir in question, and the return functions and constraints under which the system operates.     

Potential Economic Benefits of Adapting Agricultural Production Systems to Future Climate Change

Potential economic impacts of future climate change on crop enterprise net returns and annual net farm income (NFI) are evaluated for small and large representative farms in Flathead Valley in Northwest Montana. Crop enterprise net returns and NFI in an historical climate period (1960–2005) and future climate period (2006–2050) are compared when agricultural production systems (APSs) are adapted to future climate change. Climate conditions in the future climate period are based on the A1B, B1, and A2 CO₂ emission scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. Steps in the evaluation include: (1) specifying crop enterprises and APSs (i.e., combinations of crop enterprises) in consultation with locals producers; (2) simulating crop yields for two soils, crop prices, crop enterprises costs, and NFIs for APSs; (3) determining the dominant APS in the historical and future climate periods in terms of NFI; and (4) determining whether NFI for the dominant APS in the historical climate period is superior to NFI for the dominant APS in the future climate period. Crop yields are simulated using the Environmental/Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model and dominance comparisons for NFI are based on the stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) criterion. Probability distributions that best fit the EPIC-simulated crop yields are used to simulate 100 values for crop yields for the two soils in the historical and future climate periods. Best-fitting probability distributions for historical inflation-adjusted crop prices and specified triangular probability distributions for crop enterprise costs are used to simulate 100 values for crop prices and crop enterprise costs. Averaged over all crop enterprises, farm sizes, and soil types, simulated net return per ha averaged over all crop enterprises decreased 24% and simulated mean NFI for APSs decreased 57% between the historical and future climate periods. Although adapting APSs to future climate change is advantageous (i.e., NFI with adaptation is superior to NFI without adaptation based on SERF), in six of the nine cases in which adaptation is advantageous, NFI with adaptation in the future climate period is inferior to NFI in the historical climate period. Therefore, adaptation of APSs to future climate change in Flathead Valley is insufficient to offset the adverse impacts on NFI of such change.     

ESTIMATION OF RECHARGE FROM A RESERVOIR USING TWO WATER BUDGET MODELS1

ABSTRACT: Reservoir water levels, observation well data, and meteorological parameters were collected at a recharge dam site in Central Saudi Arabia. This data, along with other information on the reservoir and the underlying aquifer, were used to estimate the amounts of recharge through the reservoir bed by applying two water budget models. The first is a water budget model for the reservoir only, while the second is for an aquifer reach extending upstream and downstream from the reservoir. The results of the two approaches were discussed and compared.     

Effects of warm water inflows on the dispersion of pollutants in small reservoirs

The effects of the warm water discharged by a nuclear power plant (NPP) into a small reservoir are studied. A case study is presented (José Cabrera NPP-Zorita Hidráulica Reservoir) with experimental data of the reservoir stratification and predicted data of the dispersion of radioactive pollutants from operative or accidental releases. The vertical and longitudinal temperature profiles, electrical conductivity and transparency of the reservoir water were measured for an annual cycle. The results indicate that the continuous warm water discharge from the NPP causes permanent and artificial reservoir stratification. The stratification is significant within 1500 m upstream and 1000 m downstream from the warm water outfall. The pollutant dispersion has been predicted by using a flow model based on N(T) perfect-mixing compartments in series with feedback. The model parameter, N(T), is calculated from the longitudinal diffusion coefficient. The prediction of pollutant dispersion by means of this model shows that the stratification slows down the vertical mixing in the whole water body, and reduces the reservoir volume that is effective for the dilution and dispersion of pollutants. This means that, in the case of a radioactive pollutant release, the reservoir radioactivity level could increase significantly.     

A DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM TO MANAGE SUMMER STREAM TEMPERATURES1

ABSTRACT: Warm summer stream temperatures due to low flows and high air temperatures are a critical water quality problem in many western United States river basins because they impact threatened fish species’habitat. One way to alleviate this problem is for local and federal organizations to purchase water rights to be used to increase flows, hence decrease temperatures. Presented is a Decision Support System (DSS) that can be used in an operations mode to effectively use water acquired to mitigate warm stream temperatures. The DSS uses a statistical model for predicting daily stream temperatures and a rule‐based module to compute reservoir releases. Water releases are calculated to meet fish habitat temperature targets based on the predicted stream temperature and a user specified confidence of the temperature predictions. Strategies that enable effective use of a limited amount of water throughout the season have also been incorporated in the DSS. The utility of the DSS is demonstrated by an example application to the Truckee River near Reno, Nevada, using hypothetical operating policy and 1988 through 1994 inflows. Results indicate that the DSS could substantially reduce the number of target temperature violations (i.e., stream temperatures exceeding the target temperature levels detrimental to fish habitat).