On multiple objective optimization in aquatic ecosystems

Optimal control criteria and hierarchical dynamic control have been designed for a class of structural nonlinear predator-prey models (nutrient-herbivore-predator). The optimal open-loop control of the class of models considered is described. The optimal control design is realized using the hierarchical coordination strategies which are mathematically based on the gradient approach for the interaction prediction principle.     

Optimal harvesting of ecologically interdependent fish species

The optimal exploitation of a two-species predator-prey system is considered, using Lotka-Volterra-type equations. Due to the density-dependence of ecological efficiency, both species should be harvested simultaneously over a range of relative prices. Beyond the limits of this price range, either the prey species should be utilized indirectly by harvesting the predator, or the predator should be eliminated to maximize the prey yield. Neglecting harvesting costs, the simultaneous harvest of prey and predators requires that a unit of prey biomass increase in value by being “processed” by predators. Certain results from single-species fishery models are shown not to apply to multispecies models. These are as follows: (i) Optimal regulation of a free access fishery may call for subsidizing instead of taxing the harvest of predator species. (ii) Increasing the discount rate may, at “moderate” levels, imply that the optimal standing stock of biomass increases instead of decreasing. (iii) A rising price or a falling cost per unit fishing effort of a species may raise and not lower the optimal standing stock of that species.     

Uncertainty and allocation decisions involving unique environmental resources

The implications of the treatment of uncertainty in the definition of optimal investment criteria for irreversible allocations of unique environmental resources are considered herein. This analysis argues that the single-project, orientation of conventional cost-benefit analysis can lead to inconsistent decisions because it fails to take account of the potential for risk pooling across projects. In the models discussed in this paper uncertainty arises because the planner must estimate the net benefits associated with a mix of developed and preserved natural environments. The results suggest that the criteria for optimal investment plans will be affected by those factors influencing this uncertainty. Both the scale and timing of optimal investments may be altered from those prescribed with the conventional (Fisher-Krutilla-Cicchetti rule) framework when the potential for risk pooling is introduced. Thus, it is important to consider as a part of the specification of the objective function the factors which give rise to uncertainty.     

Connecting science,policy, and implementation for landscape‐scale habitat connectivity

We examined the links between the science and policy of habitat corridors to better understand how corridors can be implemented effectively. As a case study, we focused on a suite of landscape‐scale connectivity plans in tropical and subtropical Asia (Malaysia, Singapore, and Bhutan). The process of corridor designation may be more efficient if the scientific determination of optimal corridor locations and arrangement is synchronized in time with political buy‐in and establishment of policies to create corridors. Land tenure and the intactness of existing habitat in the region are also important to consider because optimal connectivity strategies may be very different if there are few, versus many, political jurisdictions (including commercial and traditional land tenures) and intact versus degraded habitat between patches. Novel financing mechanisms for corridors include bed taxes, payments for ecosystem services, and strategic forest certifications. Gaps in knowledge of effective corridor design include an understanding of how corridors, particularly those managed by local communities, can be protected from degradation and unsustainable hunting. There is a critical need for quantitative, data‐driven models that can be used to prioritize potential corridors or multicorridor networks based on their relative contributions to long‐term metacommunity persistence.     

Spotted Owls and Old Growth Logging in the Pacific Northwest

Abstract: Northern Spotted Owls, Strix occidentalis caurina, require large tracts of old-growth conifer forest to survive and reproduce. Much of this forest has been or is being cut by commercial logging operations, with uncertain consequences for the owls. In this paper I present simulation models of owl population change over the next 100 years, as summing a variety of scenarios for habitat destruction and fragmentation. My analysis differs from previous models by incorporating patchy territory distribution and random environmental fluctuations. Fragmented and patchy habitat distributions are common problems for endangered organisms, but they have received little attention from modelers. My results indicate that yearly fluctuations in breeding success have little impact on owl populations, but that spatial structure is quite important and should be considered in planning forest preservation. The simulations suggest that for all reasonable parameter values the proposed US. Forest Service logging plans will lead to the demise of the owls.     

Selecting a binary Markov model for a precipitation process

This paper uses rth-order categorical Markov chains to model the probability of precipitation. Several stationary and non-stationary high-order Markov models are proposed and compared using BIC. The number of parameters increases exponentially by adding the Markov order. Several classes of high-order Markov models are proposed which their increase of number of parameters are modest. For example models that use the number of precipitation days in a period prior to date, temperature of the previous day and sines/cosines periodic functions (to model the seasonality) are considered. The theory of partial likelihood is used to estimate the parameters. Parsimonious non-stationary first order Markov models with few seasonal terms are found optimal using BIC and temperature does not turn out to be a useful covariate. However BIC seems to underestimate the number of seasonal terms. We have also compared the results with AIC in some cases which tends to pick parsimonious models with more seasonal terms and higher order. We also show that ignoring seasonal terms result in picking higher order Markov chains. Finally we apply the methods to build confidence intervals for the probability of periods with no precipitation or low number of precipitation days in Calgary using historical data from 1980 to 2000.     

Bioeconomic models of marine recreational fishing

The theory of recreational fishing is developed and conditions are derived for optimal management policy, with special attention given to functional relationships that must be empirically verified. Determinants of the optimal allocation between commercial and recreational fishing effort are derived. The theory is extended to include selected peculiar features of recreational fishing: Some anglers sell their catch; a small proportion of the fishing population accounts for a large proportion of the catch; and anglers throw back a fraction of what they catch. Optimal policies are derived under these more realistic conditions.     

Age-dependent population dynamics with several interior variables and spatial spread

The problems of the asymptotic behavior of age-dependent population models with interior and spatial structures are considered. It is proved that the existence and uniqueness of the stable state and its exact form is founded for general linear models. Problems on the speed of convergence to stable state and transitional effects are investigated. Methods of solving two special classes of nonlinear models (separate models and models of the Gurtin-MacCami type) are suggested. A model of forest stand dynamics on the basis of conception of layer-mosaic characteristics of the spatial-temporal structure of stands is examined as an example of the application of given results.     

A model of exhaustible resource exploitation with ricardian rent

The question of the optimal rate of development of an exhaustible resource (such as a mine) has long been a concern of resource economists. However, with few exceptions in the literature, it has been implicitly assumed that orebodies are of uniform quality, readily distinguished from their surroundings, or else that the mining firm is able to choose the order of mining from sections of the mine which may vary in quality (e.g., grade of ore). While such simplifying assumptions have led to a rich array of conclusions, they stand in contrast to the varying conditions facing the mining engineer in making cut-off grade decisions. This paper models a situation where, because of orebody configurations, the firm cannot choose to mine in order of grade. An optimal cut-off grade is obtained for each point of time of the mine's life in the case of a socially optimizing firm. Then in a special case the effects of monopoly and various types of mineral taxation are considered for the cut-off grade decision and for ultimate recovery.     

Diagrammatic representations of the exploitation of replenishable natural resources: Dynamic iterations

Geometric representations of two dynamic models of replenishable natural resource harvesting are provided. A well-known simple model is presented in which the only cost of production is the opportunity foregone. That is, present consumption implies a reduction in future consumption possibilities. Diagrams show the iterations of an optimal program. A four-quadrant diagram is used to illustrate a short-run equilibrium and the dynamics that will lead to a long-run solution on the bionomic transformation curve.     

利用PCR-DGGE技术分析乳制品中的乳酸菌

在食品发酵行业,需要一种简捷有效的方法检测发酵产品中的有益微生物.聚合酶链式反应-变性梯度凝胶电泳(Ploymerase chain reaction and denaturing gredient gel electrophoresis,PCR-DGGE)技术广泛应用于微生物生态学的研究.采用PCR-DGGE对5种含有乳酸菌的乳制品进行了菌群组成分析,并通过传统培养方法和核酸序列分析进行了验证.结果表明,所有测试样品中的活菌数量都在106～109 cfu/mL之间,通过平板培养法分离出了形态明显的杆状菌和链球状菌,对其进行16S rDNA核酸序列测定及同源性分析,将其鉴定为德氏乳杆菌(Lactobacillus delbrueckii)和嗜热链球菌(Streptococcus thermophilus).建立了由已知乳酸菌组成的DGGE参考阶梯(Reference ladder),可用其对相应菌株进行DGGE鉴定.用两对不同引物进行PCR-DGGE分析,除样品1外,试样中均检测到德氏乳杆菌和嗜热链球菌.对DGGE参考阶梯未能直接鉴定的样品1的电泳条带进行同收、序列分析,分别鉴定为卷曲乳杆菌(L.crispatus)和鼠李糖乳杆菌(L.rhamnosus).同时发现,引物R518-F357对嗜热链球菌模板的识别效率高于引物Lac1GC-HDA2.以上结果表明,RCRDGGE技术可以对样品中的乳酸菌进行快速的分析和鉴定.图4表1参30     

Optimal model averaging by data perturbation for spatial noisy data

Geostatistical models play an important role in spatial data analysis, in which model selection is inevitable. Model selection methods, such as AIC and BIC, are popular for selecting appropriate models. In recent years, some model averaging methods, such as smoothed AIC and smoothed BIC, are also applied to spatial data models. However, the corresponding averaging estimators are outperformed by optimal model averaging estimators (Hansen in Econometrica 75:1175–1189, 2007) for the ordinary linear models. Therefore, this paper focuses on the optimal model averaging method for geostatistical models. We propose a weight choice criterion for the model averaging estimator on the basis of the generalized degrees of freedom and data perturbation technique. We further theoretically prove the resultant estimator is asymptotically optimal in terms of the mean squared error, and numerically demonstrate its satisfactory performance. Finally, the proposed method is applied to a mercury data set.     

Optimal fishery policy with artificial enhancement through stocking: California's white sturgeon as an example

Although optimal fishery policy has been derived from different kinds of economic and biological models, the interaction of fishing policy with artificial stocking policy has not been explicitly considered. We here determine optimal size limits, fishing effort, and stocking rate for three cases of interest: (1) recruitment-limited population, pre-recruitment stocking; (2) adult biomass-limited population, post-recruitment stocking; and (3) adult biomass-limited and recruitment-limited population, post-recruitment stocking. Results show that lower size limits should be set at the size at which the current market value exceeds the total future value of an individual, both to the fishery and to reproduction. Imposition of upper size limits is rarely optimal. Stocking is advisable when the hatchery cost times the relative contribution of stocking to recruitment is less than the contribution to the value of the catch. Optimal policy ranges from infinite effort at a specific size limit with maximum stocking when the cost of stocking is zero, to lower values of size limit and effort as stocking costs increase, the amount of stocking decreases, and more natural reproduction is optimal. Thus, as hatchery costs decline (or value of captured fish increases), optimal stocking/fishery policy varies from an unstocked fishery to a “put and take” fishery. The results are applied to the sturgeon fishery in the San Francisco Bay Estuary as an example. They imply that a reduced lower size limit and greater fishing mortality together with stocking would be optimal, but that current levels are conservative. The stocking decision depends critically on the values of parameters that are currently poorly known, such as: hatchery costs, survival to the fishery and the mechanisms controlling the sturgeon population.     

Stability and exploitation in two-species discrete time population models with delay

A two species model is developed which incorporates interactions at both the adult stage and the juvenile stage, as well as delays between birth and sexual maturity.The local stability of the model is examined. In particular, four necessary conditions are given and a simple sufficiency condition derived, which may avoid the need to calculate eigenvalues.The optimal steady state escapement levels are then derived under the assumption that neither species is completely removed. The optimal levels are those which maximize the discounted present value of the net economic yield.Finally, the results are applied to two models; one a familiar interspecific competition model and the other a two sex whaling model proposed by the author.     

Are ecological groups of species optimal for forest dynamics modelling?

The huge diversity of tree species in tropical rain-forests makes the modelling of its dynamics a difficult task. One-way to deal with it is to define species groups. A classical approach for building species groups consists in grouping species with nearby characteristics, using cluster analysis. A group of species is then characterized by the same list of attributes as a single species, and it is incorporated in the model of forest dynamics in the same way as a single species. In this paper, a new approach for building species group is proposed. It relies on the discrepancy between model predictions when all species are considered separately, and model predictions when species groups are used. An aggregation error that quantifies the bias in model predictions that results from species grouping is thus defined. We then define the optimal species grouping as the one that minimizes the aggregation error. Using data from a tropical rain-forest in French Guiana and a toy model of forest dynamics, this new method for species grouping is confronted to the classical method based on cluster analysis of the species characteristics, and to a combined method based on a cluster analysis that uses the aggregation error as a dissimilarity between species. The optimal species grouping is quite different from the classical species grouping. The ecological interpretation of the optimal groups is difficult, as there is no direct linkage between the species characteristics and the way that they are grouped. The combined approach yields species groups that are closed to the optimal ones, with much less computations. The optimal species groups are thus specific to the model of forest dynamics and lack the generality of those of the classical method, that in turn are not optimal.     

Some Practical Aspects of Measurements of Dissolved Free Amino Acids in Natural Waters and Within Microalgae by the Use of HPLC

A detailed method for the analysis of dissolved free amino acids (DFAA) and ammonium by reverse phase high performance chromatography of fluorescent derivatives using commercial columns and guard columns is described in detail for the newcomer. The method is flexible enough to allow for minor differences between different HPLC pump and gradient systems. For DFAA, the method is sensitive and reproducible down to high femptomole/low picomole levels, suitable for analysis of DFAA in natural waters down to the low nanomolar range. Aspects of reproducibility, sensitivity, sample preparation, cell extraction and sample storage are considered.     

Harvest policies and nonmarket valuation in a predator — prey system

Although prey may not have commercial value, their economic value can be ascertained in a predator-prey model if the predator has a harvest value. The economic optimal (recovery) path of the predator and prey are carefully described when growth is quadratic in the predator (prey) and linear in prey (predator). Parameter values, in part, resembling Pacific halibut are used to provide numerical illustrations.     

A new synergetic paradigm in environmental numerical modeling: Hybrid models combining deterministic and machine learning components

A new type of environmental numerical models, hybrid environmental numerical models (HEMs) based on combining deterministic modeling and machine learning components, is introduced and formulated. Conceptual and practical possibilities of developing HEM, as an optimal synergetic combination of the traditional deterministic/first principles modeling (like that used for solving PDEs on the sphere representing model dynamics of global climate models) and machine learning components (like accurate and fast neural network emulations of model physics or chemistry processes), are discussed. Examples of developed HEMs (hybrid climate models and a hybrid wind–wave ocean model) illustrate the feasibility and efficiency of the new approach for modeling extremely complex multidimensional systems.     

Graphical evaluation of environmental management options: Examples from a forest-insect pest system

A graphical technique is demonstrated which, when combined with any resource simulation model, permits the resource manager to explore the effects of different management options. Also, this technique (nomogram or response surface) permits derivation of “optimal solutions” given particular objectives. Examples of the methodology are given for the spruce budworm—forest system in eastern Canada. Effects of several kinds of uncertainties are dicussed, including uncertainties in model assumptions, management precision, future objectives and system evolution. The graphical nature of nomograms helps managers and analysts to grasp more easily the complicated behavior of ecological systems models. Finally, the role of computer models in decision-making is discussed.