剧烈人类活动区经济发展与环境污染水平关系--以广东省东莞市为例

近年来,经济发展与环境污染之间的关系成了社会经济发展的热点问题。本研究选取东莞市1990-2010年经济与环境数据,探究环境库兹涅茨曲线演替轨迹,得出研究时段内东莞市环境库兹涅茨曲线大体呈“倒U型”特征,其中“倒U型”峰值大约出现在2007年人均GDP为4.51万元时;工业废水、工业废气以及工业废渣排放量3项指标的环境库兹涅茨曲线,分别呈现弱的“倒U型”、“倒U型上升阶段”、“倒U型＋倒U型上升阶段”特征。结果表明,东莞市环境库兹涅茨曲线特征与污染物排放量、产业结构、环保政策及投资等有较为密切的关系。结论建议：东莞市可以通过调整产业结构、加大环境保护投资力度等措施促进经济转型,加速“倒U型”曲线后半段的形成。     

Optimal municipal investment in boomtowns An empirical analysis

The primary concern of this paper is the use of wage-infrastructure trade-offs as a measure for the social benefits of municipal infrastructure in boomtowns. A regression based on pooled cross sectional and time series data for 26 towns in the Rocky Moutain region suggests that individuals will “trade off” a 1% increase in per capita stocks of municipal infrastructure for a 0.035% decline in wages. These results are then used to calculate “optimal” levels of infrastructure investment for an example boomtown.     

Cost-sharing approach for air quality control implementation A case study

The objective of the study was to investigate and develop new alternative approaches to effectively meeting the federal SOx and particulate ambient air quality standards at cost savings. Since air pollution control costs would very likely be passed along to the consumer, it is in the best interests of the consumer and industry to find the least-cost alternative policies. Cost-sharing possesses advantages not shared by other control schemes, such as emissions taxes, auctioning of “pollution certificates,” or other methods. The results of this paper indicate that the cost-sharing approach is useful for particulates control in order to minimize the burden of plants already performing substantial control who may require significant added capital investment beyond their initial amount. For SO_ξ emissions control the cost-sharing analysis calculations show significant savings in nearly all situations, whether or not stack gas treatment methods were assumed available. Furthermore, the cost-sharing approach may allow further savings when the particular cost requirements of an individual firm differ substantially from the average engineering cost estimates. A cost-sharing option should thus be included in implementation plans as an option to be used by industries at their own initiative. The spatial characteristics of emissions resulting from a particular application of the cost-sharing approach are considered. A spatial airshed emissions allocation model is discussed as a useful method of evaluating cost sharing.     

Exploitation of a single-cohort fishery under risk: A simulation-optimization approach

A numerical approach involving dynamic programming and computer simulation is used to examine the socially optimal exploitation of a single-cohort fishery under risk, with specific reference to the Exmouth Gulf Prawn Fishery in Western Australia. Best management strategies for given investment levels are sought before optimizing investment. The results for this industry show that time of year is much more important then level of biomass in determining best fishing policies, and that the timing of the catch is sensitive to natural fluctuations in some biological variables. Employing a “closed season” policy for part of the year appears an attractive way of reconciling private and social objectives under commonality. Under or overcapitalization does not reduce benefits markedly.     

A modified method of ecological footprint calculation and its application

As economic and ecological support systems become more interdependent, new disciplines are needed to “bridge the gap” between human and nature. “Emergy” created by H.T. Odum is a new method for evaluating natural capital and ecosystem services. The “ecological footprint” created by Wackernagel and Rees has been promoted as a policy and planning tool for sustainability. The aim of this paper is to show a modified form of ecological footprint calculation by combining emergy analysis with conventional ecological footprint form of calculations. Our new method starts from the energy flows of a system in calculating ecological footprint and carrying capacity. Through a study of the energy flows, and using the method of emergy analysis, the energy flows of a system are translated into corresponding biological productive units. To demonstrate the mechanics of this new method, we compared our calculations with that of an original calculation of ecological footprint of a regional case. We select Gansu province in western China, as an example for application of our study. In this case the same conclusions were drawn using both methods: that Gansu province runs an ecological deficit.     

Best policy response to environmental shocks: Applying a stochastic framework

The paper develops a general framework for the analysis of environmental shocks in growing economies. Endogenous capital investments allow identifying the dual role of capital as a buffer against shocks and a source of pollution. We study the effects of recurring natural disasters on optimal growth and efficient environmental policies. Emissions may cause continuous fluctuations, entail discrete and recurring jumps, or trigger so-called “tipping points” with large costs to the economy. Closed-form solutions are provided for all the model variants. We discuss possible applications in environmental economics and identify current research gaps.     

对风险投资中若干问题的探析

风险投资或称为风险资本、创业资本,是指以股权、准股权或具有附带条件的债仅形式投资于新颖或未经试用技术项目或未来具有高度不确定性的项目,并愿意为所投资的项目或企业提供管理或经营服务,期望通过项目的高成长率并最终以某种方式出售产权以取得高额中长期收益的一种投资方式.风险投资经过了将近20 a发展,从发展实践看,还是比较慢的,与国外先进的风险投资业相比,我国的风险投资业还存在着许多方面的问题急需解决.本文针对风险投资中现存的问题,对风险投资中的组织形式的选择、政府的定位、融资的解决、人才的管理及资本退出机制的确定等问题进行了探讨,并提出了相应的解决方法.     

Preliminary toxicity evaluation of water from rice fields using cost‐effective microbiotests

A study was performed in a Protected Area (Natural Reserve of Sado Estuary) in 1996, to evaluate the acute toxicity for aquatic life of surface water from rice fields treated with pesticides, particularly with molinate and quinclorac. As a preliminary assessment, the following rapid toxicity tests were used: “Rotoxkit F”;, “Thamnotoxkit F”; and the recently introduced “Daphtoxkit F magna”; and “Algaltoxkit F”;. Water samples were collected from: a water source for irrigating the rice fields, two rice plots, a drainage channel and from Sado river in which the water is discharged. The results showed that samples from the rice plot treated with molinate were more toxic than those obtained from rice plot treated with quinclorac. Water samples from the river were the most toxic, causing 100% of immobility in all organisms and a substantial inhibition in the algal growth. Water collected from the drainage channel in late July, was also found to be quite toxic. The results obtained until now indicate that some characteristics of these microbiotests, like their rapidity, simplicity and relatively low cost, make them a practical tool to evaluate acute effects of pesticides in freshwater ecosystems. They may also contribute to suggest some changes in pesticides use to promote agricultural practices with lower impact to aquatic life.     

Ökobilanzen — Fortschrittsbericht

With efforts made by the International Standard Organization (ISO) to standardize life cycle assessment procedures, considerable progress could be reached in the year 1996. Standardizations of the “Principles and Framework” (ISO 14040) and the “Inventory” (ISO 14041) will come into force in 1997. Drafts of the “Impact Assessment” and “Interpretation” were specified in 1996. The case studies presented here give an overview on different approaches of “Impact Assessment” and “Interpretation”. The main advantage of an ISO-standard will not be the standardization of the impact assessment approach itself. More important than merely the outcome of a life cycle assessment is to assign additional information on the reliability of the results in respect to the formulation of questions.     

Control theory applied to natural and environmental resources an exposition

Four control theory models of natural and environmental resource use, drawn from the existing literature, are developed in a manner to emphasize their technical and decentralized interpretive similarity. Renewable, nonrenewable, and amenity resource use are treated as closely related problems of optimal (biological, earth material, ecological, or environmental) capital allocation over time. Thus nonrenewable resources, and the problem of exhaustion, are just limiting (zero growth) cases of renewable resources, and the problem of species extinction. Just as exhaustion can be optimal, extinction can be optimal. Waste recycling is treated as part of the problem of optimal regeneration of “sclean” environmental capital; wilderness use as a problem of managing the regeneration of ecological capital.     

OPEC versus the West: A robust equilibrium

Suppose that both OPEC and the West possess stocks of oil which can be extracted at constant and identical cost. Consumption takes place only in the West. Suppose, hypothetically, that the West behaves as a single agent and, more realistically, that OPEC does also. Each agent makes a strategic choice of the pattern of exploitation over time of its own reserve. The Nash equilibrium obtained is “robust” in that it is also a “Stackelberg equilibrium” in which each agent is “right for the right reason.” Further, the equilibrium obtained is equivalent to that obtained when Western oil companies constitute a competitive fringe to the OPEC monopoly.     

Optimal investment in pollution control capital in a neoclassical growth context

A neoclassical growth model is employed to study the optimal division of investment between pollution control capital and directly productive capital while simultaneously treating the saving rate as a policy variable to be varied to the optimal. The model treats pollution as a flow positively related to aggregate output, negatively related to the stock of pollution control capital, and having a negative effect on utility. Under the assumptions chosen, the optimal policy is an unbalanced one of specializing investment first in directly productive capital and subsequently in pollution control capital.     

Two-goal environmental policy: An integration of micro and micro ad hoc decision rules

A method of predicting and comparing the immediate impact of different environmental policies and of selecting the optimal policy is suggested in this paper. The degradation of water quality by a polluting industry is used to demonstrate this approach. Aggregation over this industry consists of firms with “putty clay” properties in production, and credit constraints in the capital market generate the macrorelations. The macrorelations which depend on the level of the policy variables are expressed in terms of probabilities and moments of the distribution of the microrelations and are used for different planning purposes.     

Pollution control and technological advance: A dynamic model of the firm

The paper extends the static comparison of effluent taxes and effluent standards to a dynamic world in which firms invest resources in improving their abatement technology as well as their production technology. The analysis shows that the two pollution control policies lead to a distinctly different allocation of research and development (R & D) funds between improvement in abatement technology and improvement in production technology. The model also shows that a temporally constant effluent tax leads to an increasing effluent discharge rate for “typical” firms. Other results concern the pattern of output growth and the rate of technological advance.     

On modelling temporal patterns in stressed ecosystems — Recreation in a coniferous forest

A system of ordinary differential equations is presented as being appropriate for modelling the impact of stress on the temporal behaviour of certain components within an ecosystem. The modelling problem is fist discussed in general terms and then in terms specifically relating to the impact of recreational activities (hunting, fishing, sightseeing, etc.) on a coniferous forest ecosystem.Using crude data, the model is used to simulate over a 3-year period the biomass levels of four compartments of the ecosystem (viz, timber, deer, fish and forage) in the absence of recreational activities. These results are then contrasted with simulation results obtained by introducing a “moderate” and then “high” degree of recreational activity, as well as the response of the system under moderate recreation to management strategies involving the construction of dams and the harvesting of timber.     

The “second dividend” and the demographic structure

The demographic structure of a country influences economic activity. The “second dividend” modifies growth. Accordingly, in general equilibrium, the second dividend and the demographic structure are interrelated. This paper aims at assessing empirically the “second dividend” in a dynamic, empirical and intertemporal setting that allows for measuring its impact on growth, its intergenerational redistributive effects, and its interaction with the demographic structure. The paper uses a general equilibrium model with overlapping generations, an energy module and a public finance module that distinguishes between non-ageing-related public spending and a pension regime. Policy scenarios compare the consequences of different scenarios of recycling a carbon tax through lower proportional income taxes rather than higher public lump-sum expenditures. They are computed for two countries with different demographics (France and Germany). Results suggest that the magnitude of the “second dividend” is significantly related with the demographic structure. The more concentrated the demographic structure on cohorts with higher income and saving rate, the stronger the effect on capital supply of the second dividend. The second dividend weighs on the welfare of relatively aged working cohorts. It fosters the wellbeing of young working cohorts and of future generations. The more concentrated the demographic structure on aged working cohorts, the higher the intergenerational redistributive effects of the second dividend.     

The chemistry and parent material of urban soils in Bristol (UK): implications for contaminated land assessment

An earlier survey of topsoil from parks and allotment in the city of Bristol (UK) revealed the presence of relatively high levels of “pseudo-total” Cd, As, Cu, Pb and Zn, with Cd and As exceeding present UK soil guidelines. This follow-up work aimed at (1) estimating geochemical thresholds for these elements based on “near-total” soil, bedrock and sediment heavy metals and (2) determining the genetic relationship between soil and bedrock using rare earth elements (REEs or lanthanides) as tracers. “Near-total” concentration of 34 elements (Al, Ca, Fe, K, Mg, Na, As, Ba, Cd, Cr, Cu, Li, Mn, Ni, P, Pb, Sc, Ti, V, Zn, Y and the rare earth elements Ce, Dy, Er, Eu, Gd, Ho, La, Lu, Nd, Pr, Sm, Tb, Yb) were obtained by ICP-MS and ICP-OES. The results show that the soil composition is largely controlled by the soil parent material, though extreme outliers are indicative of contamination at a few sites of parkland and allotments. Cumulative frequency plots show the presence of different data sets for which separate “background” values should be determined. The REE data provide evidence that weathering of the underlying sandstone was a determinant factor leading to the relatively high heavy metal enrichment found in soil samples and sediments. Reference to UK soil guidelines to decide on possible remediation measures could be very misleading due to the natural high background levels of some elements in the underlying bedrock. Before defining land as “contaminated”, a thorough geochemical investigation is required at local scale in order to produce a more realistic and correct environmental assessment.     

Do energy prices influence investment in energy efficiency? Evidence from energy star appliances

I examine whether electricity prices influence the likelihood that consumers purchase high efficiency appliances by using state-year panel data on electricity prices and the proportion of sales of new appliances that involve high efficiency “Energy Star” models. I find no evidence that electricity prices affect the propensity for consumers to choose high efficiency appliances. Point estimates are extremely small and precisely estimated. The findings suggest that price-based energy policies may be limited in the extent to which they increase investment in residential energy efficiency, which has been considered one of the lowest cost opportunities for reducing carbon emissions.     

Dynamic analysis of commercial fishing model

We investigate a quadratic commercial fishing model in this paper. The results imply that fishing capital investment is nonexplosive, the fishery resources are nonextinctive, and the solution of the bionomic system is globally stable within an invariant region.     

Estimation of algal growth parameters from vertical primary production profiles

Phytoplankton maximum growth rate and the saturation light intensity, I_s, can be estimated from vertical profiles of primary production by non-linear least-squares estimation. Solution through the normal equations leads to formulae which are relatively simple and easy to implement. The computation of confidence contours is demonstrated, and the results are contrasted to the confidence limits on the parameters individually. These can be quite misleading due to model non-linearity and correlation between parameter estimation.The procedure has been applied to primary production data from Lake Balaton, a shallow lake in Hungary. The growth rate-temperature relation is analysed by separating the parameters into two groups characteristic for “warm” and “cold” water phytoplankton, respectively. A bell-shaped curve is found for “cold” water communities, with an optimum at about 7–9°C, whereas the “warm” water phytoplankton exhibits a strong exponential dependency in the temperature range of interest (up to 25°C). I_s also appears to be related to temperature except for the “cold” water group, where I_s is essentially constant. However, a roughly linear relation with considerably less scatter is obtained when I_s is plotted directly versus day-averaged solar radiation. This apparent fast adaptation is attributed to the extremely short turnover time in Lake Balaton. Maximum growth rates of 10–20 d^?1 have been found for temperatures between 20 and 25°C. These results and a critical appraisal of available literature suggest that the common notion of maximum growth rates being in the order of 1–3 d^?1 needs revision, at least for lakes with relatively high summer temperatures.