Uncertainty requirements in radiative forcing of climate change

The continuing increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) makes it essential that climate sensitivity, the equilibrium change in global mean surface temperature that would result from a given radiative forcing, be quantified with known uncertainty. Present estimates are quite uncertain, 3 +/- 1.5 K for doubling of CO2. Model studies examining climate response to forcing by greenhouse gases and aerosols exhibit large differences in sensitivities and imposed aerosol forcings that raise questions regarding claims of their having reproduced observed large-scale changes in surface temperature over the 20th century. Present uncertainty in forcing, caused largely by uncertainty in forcing by aerosols, precludes meaningful model evaluation by comparison with observed global temperature change or empirical determination of climate sensitivity. Uncertainty in aerosol forcing must be reduced at least three-fold for uncertainty in climate sensitivity to be meaningfully reduced and bounded.     

Climate forcing by the on-road transportation and power generation sectors

The on-road transportation (ORT) and power generation (PG) sectors are major contributors to carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions and a host of short-lived radiatively-active air pollutants, including tropospheric ozone and fine aerosol particles, that exert complex influences on global climate. Effective mitigation of global climate change necessitates action in these sectors for which technology change options exist or are being developed. Most assessments of possible energy change options to date have neglected non-CO₂ air pollutant impacts on radiative forcing (RF). In a multi-pollutant approach, we apply a global atmospheric composition-climate model to quantify the total RF from the global and United States (U.S.) ORT and PG sectors. We assess the RF for 2 time horizons: 20- and 100-year that are relevant for understanding near-term and longer-term impacts of climate change, respectively. ORT is a key target sector to mitigate global climate change because the net non-CO₂ RF is positive and acts to enhance considerably the CO₂ warming impacts. We perform further sensitivity studies to assess the RF impacts of a potential major technology shift that would reduce ORT emissions by 50% with the replacement energy supplied either by a clean zero-emissions source (S1) or by the PG sector, which results in an estimated 20% penalty increase in emissions from this sector (S2). We examine cases where the technology shift is applied globally and in the U.S. only. The resultant RF relative to the present day control is negative (cooling) in all cases for both S1 and S2 scenarios, global and U.S. emissions, and 20- and 100-year time horizons. The net non-CO₂ RF is always important relative to the CO₂ RF and outweighs the CO₂ RF response in the S2 scenario for both time horizons. Assessment of the full impacts of technology and policy strategies designed to mitigate global climate change must consider the climate effects of ozone and fine aerosol particles.     

Present and potential future contributions of sulfate,black and organic carbon aerosols from China to global air quality,premature mortality and radiative forcing

Aerosols are harmful to human health and have both direct and indirect effects on climate. China is a major contributor to global emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO₂), a sulfate (SO₄^2?) precursor, organic carbon (OC), and black carbon (BC) aerosols. Although increasingly examined, the effect of present and potential future levels of these emissions on global premature mortality and climate change has not been well quantified. Through both direct radiative effects and indirect effects on clouds, SO₄^2? and OC exert negative radiative forcing (cooling) while BC exerts positive forcing (warming). We analyze the effect of China's emissions of SO₂, SO₄^2?, OC and BC in 2000 and for three emission scenarios in 2030 on global surface aerosol concentrations, premature mortality, and radiative forcing (RF). Using global models of chemical transport (MOZART-2) and radiative transfer (GFDL RTM), and combining simulation results with gridded population data, mortality rates, and concentration–response relationships from the epidemiological literature, we estimate the contribution of Chinese aerosols to global annual premature mortality and to RF in 2000 and 2030. In 2000, we estimate these aerosols cause approximately 470 000 premature deaths in China and an additional 30 000 deaths globally. In 2030, aggressive emission controls lead to a 50% reduction in premature deaths from the 2000 level to 240 000 in China and 10 000 elsewhere, while under a high emissions scenario premature deaths increase 50% from the 2000 level to 720 000 in China and to 40 000 elsewhere. Because the negative RF from SO₄^2? and OC is larger than the positive forcing from BC, Chinese aerosols lead to global net direct RF of ?74 mW m^?2 in 2000 and between ?15 and ?97 mW m^?2 in 2030 depending on the emissions scenario. Our analysis indicates that increased effort to reduce greenhouse gases is essential to address climate change as China's anticipated reduction of aerosols will result in the loss of net negative radiative forcing.     

Transport impacts on atmosphere and climate: Shipping

Emissions of exhaust gases and particles from oceangoing ships are a significant and growing contributor to the total emissions from the transportation sector. We present an assessment of the contribution of gaseous and particulate emissions from oceangoing shipping to anthropogenic emissions and air quality. We also assess the degradation in human health and climate change created by these emissions. Regulating ship emissions requires comprehensive knowledge of current fuel consumption and emissions, understanding of their impact on atmospheric composition and climate, and projections of potential future evolutions and mitigation options. Nearly 70% of ship emissions occur within 400 km of coastlines, causing air quality problems through the formation of ground-level ozone, sulphur emissions and particulate matter in coastal areas and harbours with heavy traffic. Furthermore, ozone and aerosol precursor emissions as well as their derivative species from ships may be transported in the atmosphere over several hundreds of kilometres, and thus contribute to air quality problems further inland, even though they are emitted at sea. In addition, ship emissions impact climate. Recent studies indicate that the cooling due to altered clouds far outweighs the warming effects from greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO₂) or ozone from shipping, overall causing a negative present-day radiative forcing (RF). Current efforts to reduce sulphur and other pollutants from shipping may modify this. However, given the short residence time of sulphate compared to CO₂, the climate response from sulphate is of the order decades while that of CO₂ is centuries. The climatic trade-off between positive and negative radiative forcing is still a topic of scientific research, but from what is currently known, a simple cancellation of global mean forcing components is potentially inappropriate and a more comprehensive assessment metric is required. The CO₂ equivalent emissions using the global temperature change potential (GTP) metric indicate that after 50 years the net global mean effect of current emissions is close to zero through cancellation of warming by CO₂ and cooling by sulphate and nitrogen oxides.     

A contribution of brown carbon aerosol to the aerosol light absorption and its radiative forcing in East Asia

Brown carbon aerosols were recently found to be ubiquitous and effectively absorb solar radiation. We use a 3-D global chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) together with aircraft and ground based observations from the TRACE-P and the ACE-Asia campaigns to examine the contribution of brown carbon aerosol to the aerosol light absorption and its climatic implication over East Asia in spring 2001. We estimated brown carbon aerosol concentrations in the model using the mass ratio of brown carbon to black carbon (BC) aerosols based on measurements in China and Europe. The comparison of simulated versus observed aerosol light absorption showed that the model accounting for brown carbon aerosol resulted in a better agreement with the observations in East Asian-Pacific outflow. We then used the model results to compute the radiative forcing of brown carbon, which amounts up to ?2.4 W m^?2 and 0.24 W m^?2 at the surface and at the top of the atmosphere (TOA), respectively, over East Asia. Mean radiative forcing of brown carbon aerosol is ?0.43 W m^?2 and 0.05 W m^?2 at the surface and at the TOA, accounting for about 15% of total radiative forcing (?2.2 W m^?2 and 0.33 W m^?2) by absorbing aerosols (BC + brown carbon aerosol), having a significant climatic implication in East Asia.     

Atmospheric composition change: Climate–Chemistry interactions

Chemically active climate compounds are either primary compounds like methane (CH₄), removed by oxidation in the atmosphere, or secondary compounds like ozone (O₃), sulfate and organic aerosols, both formed and removed in the atmosphere. Man-induced climate–chemistry interaction is a two-way process: Emissions of pollutants change the atmospheric composition contributing to climate change through the aforementioned climate components, and climate change, through changes in temperature, dynamics, the hydrological cycle, atmospheric stability, and biosphere-atmosphere interactions, affects the atmospheric composition and oxidation processes in the troposphere. Here we present progress in our understanding of processes of importance for climate–chemistry interactions, and their contributions to changes in atmospheric composition and climate forcing. A key factor is the oxidation potential involving compounds like O₃ and the hydroxyl radical (OH). Reported studies represent both current and future changes. Reported results include new estimates of radiative forcing based on extensive model studies of chemically active climate compounds like O₃, and of particles inducing both direct and indirect effects. Through EU projects like ACCENT, QUANTIFY, and the AeroCom project, extensive studies on regional and sector-wise differences in the impact on atmospheric distribution are performed. Studies have shown that land-based emissions have a different effect on climate than ship and aircraft emissions, and different measures are needed to reduce the climate impact. Several areas where climate change can affect the tropospheric oxidation process and the chemical composition are identified. This can take place through enhanced stratospheric–tropospheric exchange of ozone, more frequent periods with stable conditions favoring pollution build up over industrial areas, enhanced temperature induced biogenic emissions, methane releases from permafrost thawing, and enhanced concentration through reduced biospheric uptake. During the last 5–10 years, new observational data have been made available and used for model validation and the study of atmospheric processes. Although there are significant uncertainties in the modeling of composition changes, access to new observational data has improved modeling capability. Emission scenarios for the coming decades have a large uncertainty range, in particular with respect to regional trends, leading to a significant uncertainty range in estimated regional composition changes and climate impact.     

Aerosol optical,chemical and physical properties at Gosan,Korea during Asian dust and pollution episodes in 2001

In order to understand the influence of dust and anthropogenic pollution aerosols on regional climate in East Asia, we analyzed the aerosol optical, chemical and physical properties for two cases with high aerosol loading and assessed the radiative forcing of these cases. The 1st case study is a heavy dust episode (DE) in April (during ACE-Asia) 2001 and the 2nd case is a regional-scale pollution event in November 2001. The Ångström exponent (Å) for DE was 0.38 from sunphotometer measurements. The mean single scattering albedo (550 nm) at the surface reported during the pollution episode (PE, 0.88) was lower than that of DE (0.91). The concentrations of organic (OC) and elemental carbon (EC) measured during the PE were about 90% and 30% higher than DE. The aerosol mass scattering efficiency (α_s) of PE is a factor of about 2 higher than that of the DE. The difference in the mass absorption efficiency (α_a) of EC during DE and PE is small and within the measurement uncertainty. The diurnally averaged aerosol radiative forcing efficiency (ΔDFE, W m⁻² τ⁻¹) during DE is similar to results of other studies at Gosan.     

Global temperature change from the transport sectors: Historical development and future scenarios

Transport affects climate directly and indirectly through mechanisms that operate on very different timescales and cause both warming and cooling. We calculate contributions to the historical development in global mean temperature for the main transport sectors (road transport, aviation, shipping and rail) based on estimates of historical emissions and by applying knowledge about the various forcing mechanisms from detailed studies. We also calculate the development in future global mean temperature for four transport scenarios consistent with the IPCC SRES scenarios, one mitigation scenario and one sensitivity test scenario. There are large differences between the transport sectors in terms of sign and magnitude of temperature effects and with respect to the contributions from the long- and short-lived components. Since pre-industrial times, we calculate that transport in total has contributed 9% of total net man-made warming in the year 2000. The dominating contributor to warming is CO₂, followed by tropospheric O₃. By sector, road transport is the largest contributor; 11% of the warming in 2000 is due to this sector. Likewise, aviation has contributed 4% and rail ～1%. Shipping, on the other hand, has caused a net cooling up to year 2000, with a contribution of ?7%, due to the effects of SO₂ and NOx emissions. The total net contribution from the transport sectors to total man-made warming is ～15% in 2050, and reaches 20% in 2100 in the A1 and B1 scenarios. For all scenarios and throughout the century, road transport is the dominating contributor to warming. Due to the anticipated reduction in sulphur content of fuels, the net effect of shipping changes from cooling to warming by the end of the century. Significant uncertainties are related to the estimates of historical and future net warming mainly due to cirrus, contrails and aerosol effects, as well as uncertainty in climate sensitivity.     

Impact of stratospheric volcanic aerosols on climate: Evidence for aerosol shortwave and longwave forcing in the Southeastern U.S.

Major volcanic eruptions inject massive amounts of dust and gases into the lower stratosphere and upper troposphere. Stratospheric volcanic aerosols can scatter incoming solar radiation to space, increasing planetary albedo, reducing the total amount of solar energy reaching the troposphere and the earth's surface, and decreasing the daytime maximum temperature (aerosol shortwave forcing). They can also absorb and scatter outgoing terrestrial longwave radiation, increasing the nighttime minimum surface temperature (longwave forcing). However, persuasive evidence of climate response to this forcing has thus far been lacking. Here we examine patterns of annual and seasonal variations in mean maximum and minimum temperature trend during the periods 1992–1994 and 1985–1987 relative to that during the period 1988–1990 at 47 stations in the southeastern U.S. for evidence of such climate responses. The stratospheric volcanic aerosol optical depths over the southeastern U.S. during the period 1985–1994 were inferred from the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gases Experiment (SAGE) 11 satellite extinction measurement. After the long-term trend signals are removed, it is shown that the dominant decreasing trend of mean maximum temperature and the dominant increasing trend of mean minimum temperature over periods 1992–1994 and 1985–1987 relative to that over the period 1988–1990 are consistent with the distribution of stratospheric volcanic aerosols and predictions from aerosol radiative forcing in the southeastern U.S.     

Modeling the spectral optical properties of ammonium sulfate and biomass burning aerosols: parameterization of relative humidity effects and model results

The importance of including the global and regional radiative effects of aerosols in climate models has increasingly been realized. Accurate modeling of solar radiative forcing due to aerosols from anthropogenic sulfate and biomass burning emissions requires adequate spectral resolution and treatment of spatial and temporal variability. The variation of aerosol spectral optical properties with local relative humidity and dry aerosol composition must be considered. Because the cost of directly including Mie calculations within a climate model is prohibitive, parameterizations from off-line calculations must be used. Starting from a log-normal size distribution of dry ammonium sulfate, we developed optical properties for tropospheric sulfate aerosol at 15 relative humidities up to 99%. The resulting aerosol size distributions were then used to calculate bulk optical properties at wavelengths between 0.175 and 4 μm. Finally, functional fits of optical properties were made for each of 12 wavelength bands as a function of relative humidity. Significant variations in optical properties occurred across the total solar spectrum. Relative increases in specific extinction and asymmetry factor with increasing relative humidity became larger at longer wavelengths. Significant variation in single-scattering albedo was found only in the longest near-IR band. This is also the band with the lowest single scattering albedo. A similar treatment was done for aerosols from biomass burning. In this case, two size distributions were considered. One was based on a distribution measured for Northern Hemisphere temperate forest fires while the second was based on a measured size distribution for tropical fires. Equilibrium size distributions and compositions were calculated for 15 relative humidities and five black carbon fractions. Mie calculations and band averages of optical properties were done for each of the resulting 75 cases. Finally, fits were made for each of 12 spectral bands as functions of relative humidity and black carbon fraction. These optical properties result in global average forcing from anthropogenic sulfate aerosols of −0.81 Wm^-2. The global average forcing for biomass aerosols ranged from −0.23 to −0.25 Wm^-2 depending on the assumed size distribution, while fossil fuel organic and black carbon are estimated to heat the atmosphere by about 0.16 Wm^-2.     

Radiative effects of aerosols over Indo-Gangetic plain: environmental (urban vs. rural) and seasonal variations

Aerosol radiative effects over two environmentally distinct locations, Kanpur (urban site) and Gandhi College (rural location) in the Indo-Gangetic plain (IGP), a regional aerosol hot spot, utilizing the measured optical and physical characteristics of aerosols, an aerosol optical properties model and a radiative transfer model, are examined. Shortwave aerosol radiative forcing (ARF) at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) is 30 W m(?-?2)). Shortwave atmospheric heating due to aerosols is >0.4 K/day over IGP and peaks during premonsoon at >0.6 K/day due to lower single scattering albedo (SSA) and higher surface albedo. TOA forcing is always less negative over Kanpur when compared to Gandhi College due to lower surface albedo except in postmonsoon owing to higher SSA. This happens as TOA forcing depends on SSA and surface albedo in addition to aerosol optical depth. The magnitude of longwave forcing and atmospheric cooling in an absolute sense is significantly small and contributes only about 20% or less to the net (shortwave + longwave) forcing. Aerosol radiative effects over these two locations, despite differences in aerosol characteristics, are similar, thus confirming that aerosols and their radiative influence get transported due to circulation. ARF over Kanpur and Gandhi College is an order of magnitude higher when compared to greenhouse gas forcing. A large reduction in surface reaching solar irradiance accompanied by large atmospheric warming can have implications on precipitation and hydrological cycle, and these aerosol radiative effects should be included while performing regional-scale aerosol climate assessments.     

Estimating and comparing greenhouse gas emissions with their uncertainties using different methods: A case study for an energy supply utility

Energy supply utilities release significant amounts of greenhouse gases (GHGs) into the atmosphere. It is essential to accurately estimate GHG emissions with their uncertainties, for reducing GHG emissions and mitigating climate change. GHG emissions can be calculated by an activity-based method (i.e., fuel consumption) and continuous emission measurement (CEM). In this study, GHG emissions such as CO₂, CH₄, and N₂O are estimated for a heat generation utility, which uses bituminous coal as fuel, by applying both the activity-based method and CEM. CO₂ emissions by the activity-based method are 12–19% less than that by the CEM, while N₂O and CH₄ emissions by the activity-based method are two orders of magnitude and 60% less than those by the CEM, respectively. Comparing GHG emissions (as CO₂ equivalent) from both methods, total GHG emissions by the activity-based methods are 12–27% lower than that by the CEM, as CO₂ and N₂O emissions are lower than those by the CEM. Results from uncertainty estimation show that uncertainties in the GHG emissions by the activity-based methods range from 3.4% to about 20%, from 67% to 900%, and from about 70% to about 200% for CO₂, N₂O, and CH₄, respectively, while uncertainties in the GHG emissions by the CEM range from 4% to 4.5%. For the activity-based methods, an uncertainty in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) default net calorific value (NCV) is the major uncertainty contributor to CO₂ emissions, while an uncertainty in the IPCC default emission factor is the major uncertainty contributor to CH₄ and N₂O emissions. For the CEM, an uncertainty in volumetric flow measurement, especially for the distribution of the volumetric flow rate in a stack, is the major uncertainty contributor to all GHG emissions, while uncertainties in concentration measurements contribute a little to uncertainties in the GHG emissions.

Implications:Energy supply utilities contribute a significant portion of the global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. It is important to accurately estimate GHG emissions with their uncertainties for reducing GHG emissions and mitigating climate change. GHG emissions can be estimated by an activity-based method and by continuous emission measurement (CEM), yet little study has been done to calculate GHG emissions with uncertainty analysis. This study estimates GHG emissions and their uncertainties, and also identifies major uncertainty contributors for each method.     

Sensitivity of biogenic secondary organic aerosols to future climate change at regional scales: An online coupled simulation

Biogenic emissions and secondary organic aerosols (SOA) are strongly dependent on climatic conditions. To understand the SOA levels and their sensitivity to future climate change in the United States (U.S.), we present a modeling work with the consideration of SOA formation from the oxidation of biogenic emissions with atmospheric oxidants (e.g., OH, O₃, and NO₃). The model simulation for the present-day climate is evaluated against satellite and ground-based aerosol measurements. Although the model underestimates aerosol concentrations over the northwestern U.S. due to the lack of fire emissions in the model simulations, overall, the SOA results agree well with previous studies. Comparing with the available measurements of organic carbon (OC) concentrations, we found that the amount of SOA in OC is significant, with the ratio ranging from 0.1 to 0.5/0.6. The enhanced modeling system driven by global climate model output was also applied for two three-year one-month simulations (July, 2001–2003 and 2051–2053) to examine the sensitivity of SOA to future climate change. Under the future two emissions scenarios (A1B and A2), future temperature changes are predicted to increase everywhere in the U.S., but with different degrees of increase in different regions. As a result of climate change in the future, biogenic emissions are predicted to increase everywhere, with the largest increase (～20%) found in the southeastern and northwestern U.S. under the A1B scenario. Changes in SOA are not identical with those in biogenic emissions. Under the A1B scenario, the biggest increase in SOA is found over Texas, with isoprene emissions being the major contributor to SOA formation. The range of change varies from 5% over the southeast region to 26% over Texas. The changes in either biogenic emissions or SOA under the two climate scenarios are different due to the differences in climatic conditions. Our results also suggest that future SOA concentrations are also influenced by several other factors such as the partitioning coefficients, the atmospheric oxidative capability, primary organic carbon aerosols and anthropogenic emissions.     

Sulfate aerosols forcing: An estimate using a three-dimensional interactive chemistry scheme

The tropospheric sulfate radiative forcing has been calculated using an interactive chemistry scheme in LMD-GCM. To estimate the radiative forcing of sulfate aerosol on climate, a consistent interaction between atmospheric circulation and radiation computation has been allowed in LMD-GCM. The model results indicate that the change in the sulfate aerosols number concentration is negatively correlated to the indirect radiative forcing. The model simulated annual mean direct radiative forcing ranges from −0.1 to −1.2 W m⁻², and indirect forcing ranges from −0.4 to −1.6 W m⁻². The global annual mean direct effect estimated by the model is −0.48 W m⁻², and that of indirect is −0.68 W m⁻².     

Prospects for Future Climate Change and the Reasons for Early Action

Abstract

Combustion of coal, oil, and natural gas, and to a lesser extent deforestation, land-cover change, and emissions of halocarbons and other greenhouse gases, are rapidly increasing the atmospheric concentrations of climate-warming gases. The warming of approximately 0.1–0.2 °C per decade that has resulted is very likely the primary cause of the increasing loss of snow cover and Arctic sea ice, of more frequent occurrence of very heavy precipitation, of rising sea level, and of shifts in the natural ranges of plants and animals. The global average temperature is already approximately 0.8 °C above its preindustrial level, and present atmospheric levels of greenhouse gases will contribute to further warming of 0.5–1 °C as equilibrium is re-established. Warming has been and will be greater in mid and high latitudes compared with low latitudes, over land compared with oceans, and at night compared with day. As emissions continue to increase, both warming and the commitment to future warming are presently increasing at a rate of approximately 0.2 °C per decade, with projections that the rate of warming will further increase if emission controls are not put in place. Such warming and the associated changes are likely to result in severe impacts on key societal and environmental support systems. Present estimates are that limiting the increase in global average surface temperature to no more than 2–2.5 °C above its 1750 value of approximately 15 °C will be required to avoid the most catastrophic, but certainly not all, consequences of climate change. Accomplishing this will require reducing emissions sharply by 2050 and to near zero by 2100. This can only be achieved if: (1) developed nations move rapidly to demonstrate that a modern society can function without reliance on technologies that release carbon dioxide (CO₂) and other non-CO₂ greenhouse gases to the atmosphere; and (2) if developing nations act in the near-term to sharply limit their non-CO₂ emissions while minimizing growth in CO₂ emissions, and then in the long-term join with the developed nations to reduce all emissions as cost-effective technologies are developed.     

Characterization of aerosols and its radiative impacts over urban and rural environments--a case study from Hyderabad and Srisailam

In the troposphere anthropogenic aerosol emissions are increasing in recent decades, which can influence the earth's climate. The present study addresses the characterization of aerosols and their radiative impacts over urban (Hyderabad) and rural (Srisailam) environments by using aerosol optical depth (AOD) measurements from MICROTOPS-II sunphotometer. AOD measurements over the urban site showed high values compared to the rural site. Over the urban environment aerosol forcing at the surface is as high as -42 W m(-2) and at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) is +10 W m(-2) whereas at the rural environment aerosol forcing at the surface has been observed to be -11 W m(-2) and at TOA it is observed to be +5.7 W m(-2). The difference between TOA and the surface forcing over the urban environment is +32 W m(-2) and over the rural environment is +5.3 W m(-2), which shows the absorption capacity of the respective atmospheres.     

On the contribution of black carbon to the composite aerosol radiative forcing over an urban environment

This paper discusses the extent of Black Carbon (BC) radiative forcing in the total aerosol atmospheric radiative forcing over Pune, an urban site in India. Collocated measurements of aerosol optical properties, chemical composition and BC were carried out for a period of six months (during October 2004 to May 2005) over the site. Observed aerosol chemical composition in terms of water soluble, insoluble and BC components were used in Optical Properties of Aerosols and Clouds (OPAC) to derive aerosol optical properties of composite aerosols. The BC fraction alone was used in OPAC to derive optical properties of BC aerosols. The aerosol optical properties for composite and BC aerosols were separately used in SBDART model to derive direct aerosol radiative forcing due to composite and BC aerosols. The atmospheric radiative forcing for composite aerosols were found to be +35.5, +32.9 and +47.6 Wm^?2 during post-monsoon, winter and pre-monsoon seasons, respectively. The average BC mass fraction found to be 4.83, 6.33 and 4 μg m^?3 during the above seasons contributing around 2.2 to 5.8% to the total aerosol load. The atmospheric radiative forcing estimated due to BC aerosols was +18.8, +23.4 and +17.2 Wm^?2, respectively during the above seasons. The study suggests that even though BC contributes only 2.2–6% to the total aerosol load; it is contributing an average of around 55% to the total lower atmospheric aerosol forcing due to strong radiative absorption, and thus enhancing greenhouse warming.     

Transport impacts on atmosphere and climate: Aviation

Aviation alters the composition of the atmosphere globally and can thus drive climate change and ozone depletion. The last major international assessment of these impacts was made by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 1999. Here, a comprehensive updated assessment of aviation is provided. Scientific advances since the 1999 assessment have reduced key uncertainties, sharpening the quantitative evaluation, yet the basic conclusions remain the same. The climate impact of aviation is driven by long-term impacts from CO₂ emissions and shorter-term impacts from non-CO₂ emissions and effects, which include the emissions of water vapour, particles and nitrogen oxides (NO_x). The present-day radiative forcing from aviation (2005) is estimated to be 55 mW m^?2 (excluding cirrus cloud enhancement), which represents some 3.5% (range 1.3–10%, 90% likelihood range) of current anthropogenic forcing, or 78 mW m^?2 including cirrus cloud enhancement, representing 4.9% of current forcing (range 2–14%, 90% likelihood range). According to two SRES-compatible scenarios, future forcings may increase by factors of 3–4 over 2000 levels, in 2050. The effects of aviation emissions of CO₂ on global mean surface temperature last for many hundreds of years (in common with other sources), whilst its non-CO₂ effects on temperature last for decades. Much progress has been made in the last ten years on characterizing emissions, although major uncertainties remain over the nature of particles. Emissions of NO_x result in production of ozone, a climate warming gas, and the reduction of ambient methane (a cooling effect) although the overall balance is warming, based upon current understanding. These NO_x emissions from current subsonic aviation do not appear to deplete stratospheric ozone. Despite the progress made on modelling aviation's impacts on tropospheric chemistry, there remains a significant spread in model results. The knowledge of aviation's impacts on cloudiness has also improved: a limited number of studies have demonstrated an increase in cirrus cloud attributable to aviation although the magnitude varies: however, these trend analyses may be impacted by satellite artefacts. The effect of aviation particles on clouds (with and without contrails) may give rise to either a positive forcing or a negative forcing: the modelling and the underlying processes are highly uncertain, although the overall effect of contrails and enhanced cloudiness is considered to be a positive forcing and could be substantial, compared with other effects. The debate over quantification of aviation impacts has also progressed towards studying potential mitigation and the technological and atmospheric tradeoffs. Current studies are still relatively immature and more work is required to determine optimal technological development paths, which is an aspect that atmospheric science has much to contribute. In terms of alternative fuels, liquid hydrogen represents a possibility and may reduce some of aviation's impacts on climate if the fuel is produced in a carbon-neutral way: such fuel is unlikely to be utilized until a ‘hydrogen economy’ develops. The introduction of biofuels as a means of reducing CO₂ impacts represents a future possibility. However, even over and above land-use concerns and greenhouse gas budget issues, aviation fuels require strict adherence to safety standards and thus require extra processing compared with biofuels destined for other sectors, where the uptake of such fuel may be more beneficial in the first instance.     

Urban impacts on regional carbonaceous aerosols: Case study in central Texas

Rural and background sites provide valuable information on the concentration and optical properties of organic, elemental, and water-soluble organic carbon (OC, EC, and WSOC), which are relevant for understanding the climate forcing potential of regional atmospheric aerosols. To quantify climate- and air quality-relevant characteristics of carbonaceous aerosol in the central United States, a regional background site in central Texas was chosen for long-term measurement. Back trajectory (BT) analysis, ambient OC, EC, and WSOC concentrations and absorption parameters are reported for the first 15 months of a long-term campaign (May 2011–August 2012). BT analysis indicates consistent north–south airflow connecting central Texas to the Central Plains. Central Texas aerosols exhibited seasonal trends with increased fine particulate matter (<2.5 μm aerodynamic diameter, PM_2.5) and OC during the summer (PM_2.5 = 10.9 μg m^?3 and OC = 3.0 μg m^?3) and elevated EC during the winter (0.22 μg m^?3). When compared to measurements in Dallas and Houston, TX, central Texas OC appears to have mixed urban and rural sources. However, central Texas EC appears to be dominated by transport of urban emissions. WSOC averaged 63% of the annual OC, with little seasonal variability in this ratio. To monitor brown carbon (BrC), absorption was measured for the aqueous WSOC extracts. Light absorption coefficients for EC and BrC were highest during summer (EC MAC = 11 m² g^?1 and BRC MAE₃₆₅ = 0.15 m² g^?1). Results from optical analysis indicate that regional aerosol absorption is mostly due to EC with summertime peaks in BrC attenuation. This study represents the first reported values of WSOC absorption, MAE₃₆₅, for the central United States.

Implications:Background concentration and absorption measurements are essential in determining regional potential radiative forcing due to atmospheric aerosols. Back trajectory, chemical, and optical analysis of PM_2.5 was used to determine climatic and air quality implications of urban outflow to a regional receptor site, representative of the central United States. Results indicate that central Texas organic carbon has mixed urban and rural sources, while elemental carbon is controlled by the transport of urban emissions. Analysis of aerosol absorption showed black carbon as the dominant absorber, with less brown carbon absorption than regional studies in California and the southeastern United States.