The Sixty-Sixth Annual Meeting of the Air Pollution Control Association

Abstract

The U.S. Clean Air Act, amended in 1990, mandated the establishment of the Grand Canyon Visibility Transport Commission (GCVTC). The commission is required to submit a report to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency addressing visibility issues in the region, including "the establishment of clean air corridors, in which additional restrictions on increases in emissions may be appropriate to protect visibility in affected Class I areas." This paper presents a methodology to identify candidate geographic areas for consideration for Clean Air Corridor (CAC) status for Colorado Plateau Class I areas. The methodology uses thousands of model determined trajectories over a five year period (1988 to 1992) to indicate the paths taken by air that arrives during clean air conditions at Class I areas. These clean air back-trajectories identify upwind areas where pollution emissions could jeopardize currently pristine visibility. Using this methodology, six candidate areas are identified, ranging in size from 75,000 to 506,000 square miles, and permitting varying levels of visibility protection for clean air days at Grand Canyon, Canyonlands, and Petrified Forest National Parks. Assuming effective emissions management of the CAC, the larger the CAC, the greater the visibility protection during clean air conditions.     

Evaluation of wind fields used in Grand Canyon Visibility Transport Commission analyses

The Grand Canyon Visibility Transport Commission (GCVTC) was established by the U.S. Congress to assess the potential impacts of projected growth on atmospheric visibility at Grand Canyon National Park and to make recommendations to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency on what measures could be taken to avoid such adverse impacts. A critical input to the assessment tool used by the commission was three-dimensional model-derived wind fields used to transport the emissions. This paper describes the evaluation of the wind fields used at various stages in the assessment. Wind fields evaluated included those obtained from the Colorado State University Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), the National Meteorological Center's Nested Grid Model (NGM), and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Atmospheric Transport and Dispersion (ATAD) trajectory model. The model-derived wind fields were evaluated at multiple vertical levels at several locations in the southwestern United States by determining differences between model predicted winds and winds that were measured using radiosonde and radar wind profiler data. Model-derived winds were also evaluated by determining the percent of time that they were within acceptable differences from measured winds. All models had difficulties, generally meeting the acceptable criteria for less than 50% of the predictions. The RAMS model had a persistent bias toward southwesterly winds at the expense of other directions, especially failing to represent channeling by north-south mountain ranges in the lower levels. The NGM model exhibited a substantial bias in the summer months by extending northwesterly winds in the eastern Pacific Ocean well inland, in contrast to the observed southwesterlies at inland locations. The simpler ATAD trajectory model performed somewhat better than the other models, probably because of its use of more upper air sites. The results of the evaluation indicated that these wind fields could not be used to reliably predict source-receptor impacts on a particular day; thus, seasonally averaged impacts were used in the GCVTC assessment.     

Evaluation of Wind Fields Used in Grand Canyon Visibility Transport Commission Analyses

ABSTRACT

The Grand Canyon Visibility Transport Commission (GCVTC) was established by the U.S. Congress to assess the potential impacts of projected growth on atmospheric visibility at Grand Canyon National Park and to make recommendations to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency on what measures could be taken to avoid such adverse impacts. A critical input to the assessment tool used by the commission was three-dimensional model-derived wind fields used to transport the emissions. This paper describes the evaluation of the wind fields used at various stages in the assessment. Wind fields evaluated included those obtained from the Colorado State University Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), the National Meteorological Center's Nested Grid Model (NGM), and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Atmospheric Transport and Dispersion (ATAD) trajectory model. The model-derived wind fields were evaluated at multiple vertical levels at several locations in the southwestern United States by determining differences between model predicted winds and winds that were measured using radiosonde and radar wind profiler data. Model-derived winds were also evaluated by determining the percent of time that they were within acceptable differences from measured winds.

All models had difficulties, generally meeting the acceptable criteria for less than 50% of the predictions. The RAMS model had a persistent bias toward southwesterly winds at the expense of other directions, especially failing to represent channeling by north-south mountain ranges in the lower levels. The NGM model exhibited a substantial bias in the summer months by extending northwesterly winds in the eastern Pacific Ocean well inland, in contrast to the observed southwesterlies at inland locations. The simpler ATAD trajectory model performed somewhat better than the other models, probably because of its use of more upper air sites. The results of the evaluation indicated that these wind fields could not be used to reliably predict source-receptor impacts on a particular day; thus, seasonally averaged impacts were used in the GCVTC assessment.     

Assessment of the nested grid model estimates for driving regional visibility models in the southwestern United States

The Nested Grid Model (NGM) is a primitive-equation meteorological model that is routinely exercised over North America for forecasting purposes by the National Meteorological Center. While prognostic meteorological models are being increasingly used to drive air quality models, their use in conducting annual simulations requires significant resources. NGM estimates of wind fields and other meteorological variables provide an attractive alternative since they are typically archived and readily available for an entire year. Preliminary evaluation of NGM winds during the summer of 1992 for application to the region surrounding the Grand Canyon National Park showed serious shortcomings. The NGM winds along the borders between California, Arizona and Mexico tend to be northwesterly with a speed of about 6 m/sec, while the observed flow is predominantly southerly at about 2-5 m/sec. The mesoscale effect of a thermal low pressure area over the highly heated Southern California and western Arizona deserts does not appear to be represented by the NGM because of its coarse resolution and the use of sparse observations in that region. Tracer simulations and statistical evaluation against special high resolution observations of winds in the southwest United States clearly demonstrate the northwest bias in NGM winds and its adverse effect on predictions of an air quality model. The "enhanced" NGM winds, in which selected wind observations are incorporated in the NGM winds using a diagnostic meteorological model provide additional confirmation on the primary cause of the northwest bias. This study has demonstrated that in situations where limited resources prevent the use of prognostic meteorological models, previously archived coarse resolution wind fields in which additional observations are incorporated to correct known biases provide an attractive option.     

The Relationship Between Atmospheric Transport and the Particle Scattering Coefficient at the Grand Canyon

Air trajectory and particle scattering data (bsp) for the period 1984-1989 are used to determine the relationship between atmospheric transport and visual air quality at the Grand Canyon National Park. Using cluster analysis, 72-hour back-trajectories arriving four times per day were grouped into distinct transport patterns. Northwesterly and southerly/southwesterly flow dominate in the winter and summer seasons, respectively. Comparisons of bsp values accompanying different transport patterns showed a clear relationship between air flow pathway and light scattering due to small particles during the non-summer months only. An index is defined which describes the percentage of annual trajectories belonging to specific transport routes delivering predominantly clear air to the GCNP.     

Assessment of the Nested Grid Model Estimates for Driving Regional Visibility Models in the Southwestern United States

ABSTRACT

The Nested Grid Model (NGM) is a primitive-equation meteorological model that is routinely exercised over North America for forecasting purposes by the National Meteorological Center. While prognostic meteorological models are being increasingly used to drive air quality models, their use in conducting annual simulations requires significant resources. NGM estimates of wind fields and other meteorological variables provide an attractive alternative since they are typically archived and readily available for an entire year. Preliminary evaluation of NGM winds during the summer of 1992 for application to the region surrounding the Grand Canyon National Park showed serious shortcomings. The NGM winds along the borders between California, Arizona and Mexico tend to be northwesterly with a speed of about 6 m/sec, while the observed flow is predominantly southerly at about 2-5 m/sec. The mesoscale effect of a thermal low pressure area over the highly heated Southern California and western Arizona deserts does not appear to be represented by the NGM because of its coarse resolution and the use of sparse observations in that region. Tracer simulations and statistical evaluation against special high resolution observations of winds in the southwest United States clearly demonstrate the northwest bias in NGM winds and its adverse effect on predictions of an air quality model. The “enhanced” NGM winds, in which selected wind observations are incorporated in the NGM winds using a diagnostic meteorological model provide additional confirmation on the primary cause of the northwest bias. This study has demonstrated that in situations where limited resources prevent the use of prognostic meteorological models, previously archived coarse resolution wind fields in which additional observations are incorporated to correct known biases provide an attractive option.     

Summer Transport Patterns Affecting the Mohave Power Project Emissions

The Mohave Power Project (MPP) is an isolated 1580-MW coal-fired electric generating plant located in Laughlin, NV. Laughlin is a small desert gambling town situated in the lower Colorado River Valley near the junction of three states: Nevada, California, and Arizona. The location of the MPP is approximately 115 km southwest of the western end of the Grand Canyon National Park and about 240 km southwest from the Grand Canyon Village. This paper describes the summer transport patterns of the MPP emittants using illustrated examples from the Project MOHAVE (Measurements of Haze and Visual Effects) 1992 summer intensive study. The intensive study lasted 50 days from mid-July through August and encompassed the major meteorological patterns associated with southwestern U.S. summer meteorology. The MPP emittants were transported toward the Grand Canyon (north to the northeast) during more than 80% of the total hours. Airflow was from the south most of the time due to a combination of the semi-permanent thermal low, differential heating between the Gulf of California and lower Colorado River Valley, and upslope heating of the southern and western slopes of the nearby Colorado Plateau.     

The project MOHAVE tracer study: study design,data quality,and overview of results

In the winter and summer of 1992, atmospheric tracer studies were conducted in support of project MOHAVE, a visibility study in the southwestern United States. The primary goal of project MOHAVE is to determine the effects of the Mohave power plant and other sources upon visibility at Grand Canyon National Park. Perfluorocarbon tracers (PFTs) were released from the Mohave power plant and other locations and monitored at about 30 sites. The tracer data are being used for source attribution analysis and for evaluation of transport and dispersion models and receptor models. Collocated measurements showed the tracer data to be of high quality and suitable for source attribution analysis and model evaluation. The results showed strong influences of channeling by the Colorado River canyon during both winter and summer. Flow from the Mohave power plant was usually to the south, away from the Grand Canyon in winter and to the northeast, toward the Grand Canyon in summer. Tracer released at Lake Powell in winter was found to often travel downstream through the entire length of the Grand Canyon. Data from summer tracer releases in southern California demonstrated the existence of a convergence zone in the western Mohave Desert.     

Tracking Regional Background in a Haze Attribution Experiment

ABSTRACT

Emissions from distant source areas are often imagined to provide a steady background to the emissions of whatever local sources are being studied. As part of Project MOHAVE in summer 1992, several air mass markers and an injected stack tracer were measured hourly near the Grand Canyon. Observed haze events generally coincided with transients in methylchloroform and water vapor, which we interpret as endemic tags for air from southern California and the subtropics. The results depict a dynamic regional background.     

An online coupled meteorological and air quality modeling study of the effect of complex terrain on the regional transport and transformation of air pollutants over the Western United States

One of the most prominent of characteristics of the western United States that affects its meteorology is the complexity of its mountainous terrain. The meteorological Mesoscale Model, version 5 with Chemistry (MM5-Chem), an online-coupled atmospheric chemistry model, was used to investigate the effect of this terrain on a high air pollution event in the free troposphere. The simulations were evaluated by comparisons with data from the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR). Complex terrain was shown to have an important influence on the vertical transport of air pollutants on the regional scale; emissions from ground level were vertically mixed as high as 5 km above sea surface level for the wintertime conditions simulated. The simulations showed that the vertical transport of emissions from the Earth's surface could have a more significant effect on mid and upper level chemical concentrations than chemical production. The vertical transport was caused predominately by terrain forced flow over the mountains’ ridge-line and the terrain forced flow was affected by the mountain peak height and the complexity of the terrain downwind.     

The effects of scrubber installation at the Navajo Generating Station on particulate sulfur and visibility levels in the Grand Canyon

Grand Canyon National Park (GCNP) is a mandatory Class I federal area that is afforded visibility protection under the Federal Clean Air Act. In this paper, we have examined the effects on visibility and particulate sulfur (Sp) at GCNP as a result of reducing sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions by 90% from the Navajo Generating Station (NGS). Scrubbers were retrofitted to each of the three units at NGS during 1997, 1998, and 1999. The Inter-agency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments aerosol network database affords us an opportunity to examine trends in Sp and extinction both prescrubber and postscrubber. The NGS impacts GCNP primarily during the winter (December to February). During winter, at times, there are fogs, stratus, and high-relative humidity in the Grand Canyon. When the NGS plume interacts with these fogs and stratus, rapid conversion of SO2 to Sp can occur. A variety of analytical techniques were used, including cumulative frequency plots of Sp and extinction, and chemical mass balance and tracer source apportionment analysis. We also deployed P value statistical analysis of "extreme" Sp values. Before scrubbers were installed, values of Sp approaching 2 microg/m3 were occasionally observed. Because scrubbers have been installed, high levels of Sp have been markedly reduced. Statistical P value analysis suggests that these reductions were significant. Furthermore, we have also observed that Sp has been reduced throughout the cumulative frequency curve during winter by approximately 33% since scrubbers were installed. By contrast, during summer when the NGS impact on the Canyon is minimal, there has been only a relatively small decrease in Sp.     

VOC source identification from personal and residential indoor,outdoor and workplace microenvironment samples in EXPOLIS-Helsinki,Finland

Principal component analyses (varimax rotation) were used to identify common sources of 30 target volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in residential outdoor, residential indoor and workplace microenvironment and personal 48-h exposure samples, as a component of the EXPOLIS-Helsinki study. Variability in VOC concentrations in residential outdoor microenvironments was dominated by compounds associated with long-range transport of pollutants, followed by traffic emissions, emissions from trees and product emissions. Variability in VOC concentrations in environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) free residential indoor environments was dominated by compounds associated with indoor cleaning products, followed by compounds associated with traffic emissions, long-range transport of pollutants and product emissions. Median indoor/outdoor ratios for compounds typically associated with traffic emissions and long-range transport of pollutants exceeded 1, in some cases quite considerably, indicating substantial indoor source contributions. Changes in the median indoor/outdoor ratios during different seasons reflected different seasonal ventilation patterns as increased ventilation led to dilution of those VOC compounds in the indoor environment that had indoor sources. Variability in workplace VOC concentrations was dominated by compounds associated with traffic emissions followed by product emissions, long-range transport and air fresheners. Variability in VOC concentrations in ETS free personal exposure samples was dominated by compounds associated with traffic emissions, followed by long-range transport, cleaning products and product emissions. VOC sources in personal exposure samples reflected the times spent in different microenvironments, and personal exposure samples were not adequately represented by any one microenvironment, demonstrating the need for personal exposure sampling.     

On a Strategy for Reducing Short-range Daytime Ground Level Concentrations Due to Emissions from Very Tall Stacks

Abstract

Airborne fine particle sulfur data from the summer intensive of Project MOHAVE (Measurement of Haze and Visual Effects) was analyzed by the Receptor Model Applied to Patterns in Space (RMAPS) model, a novel multivariate receptor-oriented model that applies to secondary and primary species. The sulfur data from 17 sites were found to be well predicted by three spatial patterns interpreted as sources along the valley of the Colorado River; transport from sources located to the southwest; and transport from sources located to the southeast. The model was tested by using parameters derived from the 17-site data set to apportion sulfur for six sites that were not part of the original data set. The sulfur apportionment for these six sites was in agreement with the original apportionment and the physical interpretation of the spatial patterns given above. The effects of systematic and random error on the sulfur apportionment were estimated. The amount of sulfur associated with the Colorado River valley sources was rather insensitive to both types of error. For the two sites in the Grand Canyon National Park, the fraction of total particulate sulfur from the Colorado River valley source is estimated to be in the range of 27-65% at Meadview and 11-28% at Hopi Point.     

Aerosol light scattering measurements as a function of relative humidity: a comparison between measurements made at three different sites

The water uptake by fine aerosol particles in the atmosphere has been investigated at three rural National Parks in the United States (Great Smoky Mountains, Grand Canyon and Big Bend National Parks). The relative humidity (RH) of sample aerosols was varied from less than 20% to greater than 90% using Perma Pure drying tubes as the scattering coefficient of the aerosol was measured with a Radiance Research M903 nephelometer. Data from these studies show that growth curves at all the three sites are similar in shape but the magnitude of growth can vary considerably from day to day. The growth curves from Great Smoky Mountains show smooth continuous growth over the entire range of RH, while the growth curves from the Grand Canyon and Big Bend show smooth and continuous growth on some days and deliquescence on other days. Comparing 12-h filter samples of chemical composition data with the aerosol growth curves, we find that higher fractions of soluble inorganic compounds (sulfate and nitrate) produce growth curves of greater magnitude than do higher concentrations of either organic carbon or soil material.     

Trends of nitrogen in air and precipitation: model results and observations at EMEP sites in Europe, 1980--2003

We analyze trends of some nitrogen compounds using long-term measurements and results from the EMEP (co-operative programme for monitoring and evaluation of the long-range transmissions of air pollutants in Europe) chemical transport model at EMEP sites. We find statistically significant declines at the majority of sites for NH(x) (sum of ammonia and ammonium) in air and for nitrate and ammonium in precipitation, but only at a few sites for xNO3 (sum of nitrate and nitric acid) in air. Model calculations and measurements give similar results. We demonstrate that the lack of trends for xNO3 in air at least partly can be attributed to a shift in the equilibrium between nitric acid and ammonium nitrate towards particulate phase, caused by reductions in the sulfur dioxide emissions.     

Long-term relationships between mercury wet deposition and meteorology

Daily-event precipitation samples collected in Underhill, VT from 1995 to 2006 were analyzed for total mercury and results suggest that there were no statistically significant changes in annual mercury wet deposition over time, despite significant emissions reductions in the Northeast United States. Meteorological analysis indicates that mercury deposition has not decreased as transport of emissions from major source regions in the Midwest and East Coast have consistently contributed to the largest observed mercury wet deposition amounts over the period. In contrast, annual volume-weighted mean (VWM) mercury concentration declined slightly over the 12-years, and a significant decrease was observed from CY 2001 to 2006. An increase in the total annual precipitation amount corresponded with the decline in annual VWM mercury concentration. Analysis suggests that the increase in precipitation observed was strongly related to changes in the amount and type of precipitation that fell seasonally, and this departure was attributed to a response in meteorological conditions to climate variability and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. Increased amounts of rainfall and mixed precipitation (mixture of rainfall and snowfall), particularly in the spring and fall seasons, enhanced annual precipitation amounts and resulted in declining VWM mercury concentrations during these periods. Thus, declines in concentration at the more remote Underhill site appear to be more directly linked to local scale meteorological and climatological variability than to a reduction in emissions of mercury to the atmosphere.     

Characterization of regional transport and dispersion using Project MOHAVE tracer data

Perfluorocarbon tracers were released continuously from several surface locations and one power plant stack location during the winter (30 days) and summer (50 days) intensive studies as part of Project MOHAVE. Tracers were released in winter from the Mohave Power Plant (MPP) and Dangling Rope, UT, located on the shore of Lake Powell near Page, AZ; and in summer from MPP, the Tehachapi Pass between the Mojave Desert and the Central Valley in California, and El Centro, CA, on the California-Mexico border. At the Tehachapi tracer release site six-hour pulses of a separately identifiable perfluorocarbon tracer were released every four days in order to assess the time for the tracer to clear the monitoring network. Daily 24-hr integrated samples were collected at about 30 sites in four states. Limited tracer concentration data with higher time resolution is also available. Graphical displays and analyses identify several regional transport paths, including a convergence zone in the Mojave Desert, the importance of terrain channeling, especially in winter, and a relationship between 24-hr maximum influence function and distance that may prove useful as a scoping tool and to test regional scale air quality models. In winter, Dangling Rope tracer was routinely transported through the entire length of the Grand Canyon, while in summer, MPP tracer was routinely transported over most of Lake Mead.     

Study of the relationship of distant SO2 emissions to Dallas-Fort Worth winter haze

A study was conducted to estimate the changes in wintertime visual air quality in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) that might occur due to proposed reductions in SO2 emissions at two steam electric generating plants in eastern Texas, each over 100 km from the city. To provide information for designing subsequent investigations, the haze was characterized broadly during the first year of the study. Meteorological data acquired then demonstrated that, during haze episodes, emissions from only one of the two plants were likely to be transported directly to DFW. Therefore, the second year of the study was centered on just one of the power plants. Air quality was then characterized within the urban area and at rural locations that would be upwind and downwind of the plant during transport to DFW. An instrumented aircraft measured plume dispersion and the air surrounding the plume on selected days. A mathematical model was used to predict the change that would occur in airborne particulate matter concentrations in DFW if SO2 emissions were reduced to reflect the proposed limitations. The contribution of particles in the atmosphere to light extinction was estimated, and simulated photographs were produced to illustrate the visibility changes. The study concluded that the proposed emission reductions would, at most, subtly change perceived wintertime visibility.     

Daytime resolved analysis of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in urban aerosol samples - impact of sources and meteorological conditions

Urban aerosol was collected in a summer and a winter campaign for 7 and 3 days, respectively. Low volume samples were taken with a time resolution of 160 min using a filter/sorption cartridge system extended by an ozone scrubber. Concentrations of mainly particle associated polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) and oxidised PAH (O-PAH) were determined by gas chromatography/high resolution mass spectrometry. The sampling site was located in the city centre of Augsburg, Germany, near major roads with high traffic volume. The daily concentrations and profiles were mainly governed by local emissions from traffic and domestic heating, as well as by the meteorological conditions. During the winter campaign, concentrations were more than 10 fold higher than during the summer campaign. Highest concentrations were found concurrent with low boundary layer heights and low wind speeds. Significant diurnal variation of the PAH profiles was observed. Enhanced influences of traffic related PAH on the PAH profiles were evident during daytime in summer, whereas emissions from hot water generation and domestic heating were obvious during the night time of both seasons. A general idea about the global meteorological situation was acquired using back trajectory calculations (NOAA ARL HYSPLIT4). Due to high local emissions in combination with low air exchange during the two sampling campaigns, effects of mesoscale transport were not clearly observable.     

A study of the movement of radioactive material released during the Windscale fire in October 1957 using ERA40 data

In October 1957 a fire in Pile Number 1, a nuclear reactor at the Windscale Works, Sellafield, resulted in the accidental release of radionuclides to the atmosphere. Previous studies have described the atmospheric transport of the resultant radioactive plume from its release on the Cumbrian coast of Northwest England to its passage across mainland Europe. Those past studies have suffered from uncertainties concerning the quantity and timing of emissions and meteorological conditions. Crabtree [1959. The travel and diffusion of the radioactive material emitted during the Windscale accident. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 85, 362] initially produced estimates of plume transport based on weather observations and radiosonde profiles. Later, ApSimon et al. [1985. Long-range atmospheric dispersion of radioisotopes—I. The MESOS model. Atmospheric Environment 19(1), 99–111] based estimates of plume transport on trajectories calculated from weather charts. More recently, Nelson et al. [2006. A study of the movement of radioactive material discharged during the Windscale fire in October 1957. Atmospheric Environment, 40, 58–75] used a full three-dimensional dispersion model using digitised weather data from similar charts.This study aims to further reduce uncertainty in the plume's behaviour by using the latest available Numerical Weather Prediction Model reanalysis of meteorological data from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ERA-40) coupled with current best estimates of the radioactive emissions profile. The results presented here generally support the findings of previous studies though an improvement in model comparisons against observational measurements has been found. The opportunity was also taken to extend the time horizon, and hence geographical coverage, of the modelled plume. It is considered that this paper presents the best estimate to date of the plume's behaviour.