Control of ozone precursors in a complex industrial terrain by using multiscale-nested air quality models with fine spatial resolution (1 km2)

The location of the northeastern Iberian Peninsula (NEIP) in the northwestern Mediterranean basin, the presence of the Pyrenees mountain range (with altitudes > 3000 m), and the influence of the Mediterranean Sea and the large valley canalization of Ebro river induce an extremely complicated structure for the dispersion of photochemical pollutants. Air pollution studies in very complex terrains such as the NEIP require high-resolution modeling for resolving the very complex dynamics of flows. To deal with the influence of larger-scale transport, however, high-resolution models have to be nested in larger models to generate appropriate initial and boundary conditions for the finer resolution domains. This article shows the results obtained through the utilization of the MM5-EMICAT2000-CMAQ multiscale-nested air quality model relating the sensitivity regimes for ozone (O3)-nitrogen oxides (NOx)-volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in an area of high geographical complexity, like the industrial area of Tarragona, located in the NEIP. The model was applied with fine temporal (one-hour) and spatial resolution (cells of 24 km, 2 km, and 1 km) to represent the chemistry and transport of tropospheric O3 and other photochemical species with respect to different hypothetical scenarios of emission controls and to quantify the influence of different emission sources in the area. Results indicate that O3 chemistry in the industrial domain of Tarragona is strongly sensitive to VOCs; the higher percentages of reduction for ground-level O3 are achieved when reducing by 25% the emissions of industrial VOCs. On the contrary, reductions in the industrial emissions of NOx contribute to a strong increase in hourly peak levels of O3. At the same time, the contribution of on-road traffic and biogenic emissions to ground-level O3 concentrations in the area is negligible with respect to the pervasive weight of industrial sources. This analysis provides an assessment of the effectiveness of different policies for the control of emission of precursors by comparing the modeled results for different scenarios.     

Air Quality Modeling of Interpollutant Trading for Ozone Precursors in an Urban Area

Abstract

Emission trading is a market‐based approach designed to improve the efficiency and economic viability of emission control programs; emission trading has typically been confined to trades among single pollutants. Interpollutant trading (IPT), as described in this work, allows for trades among emissions of different compounds that affect the same air quality end point, in this work, ambient ozone (O₃) concentrations. Because emissions of different compounds impact air quality end points differently, weighting factors or trading ratios (tons of emissions of nitrogen oxides (NO_x) equivalent to a ton of emissions of volatile organic compounds [VOCs]) must be developed to allow for IPT. In this work, IPT indices based on reductions in O₃ concentrations and based on reductions in population exposures to O₃ were developed and evaluated using a three‐dimensional gridded photochemical model for Austin, TX, a city currently on the cusp of nonattainment with the National Ambient Air Quality Standards for O₃ concentrations averaged over 8 hr. Emissions of VOC and NO_x from area and mobile sources in Austin are larger than emissions from point sources. The analysis indicated that mobile and area sources exhibited similar impacts. Trading ratios based on maximum O₃ concentration or population exposure were similar. In contrast, the trading ratios did exhibit significant (more than a factor of two) day‐to‐day variability. Analysis of the air quality modeling indicated that the daily variability in trading ratios could be attributed to daily variations in both emissions and meteorology.     

A simple semi-empirical photochemical model for the simulation of ozone concentration in the Seoul metropolitan area in Korea

O₃ concentrations were simulated over the Seoul metropolitan area in Korea using a simple semi-empirical reaction (SEGRS) model which consists of generic reaction set (GRS), photochemical reaction set, and the diagnostic wind field generation model. The aggregated VOC emission strength was empirically scaled by the comparison of the simulated slope of (O₃–2NO–NO₂) concentration as a function of cumulative actinic light flux against measurements on high surface ozone concentration days with the relatively weak easterly geostrophic winds at the 850 hPa level in summer when the effect of horizontal advection was fairly small. The results indicated that the spatial distribution patterns and temporal variations of spatially averaged ground-level ozone concentrations were quite well simulated compared with those of observations with the modified volatile organic compound (VOC) emission strength. The diurnal trend of the surface ozone concentration and the maximum concentration compared observations were also quite reasonably simulated. However, the maximum ozone concentration occurring time at Seoul lagged about 2 h and the ozone concentration in the suburban area was slightly overestimated in the afternoon due to the influx of high ozone concentration from the urban area. It was found that the SEGRS model could be effectively used to simulate or predict the ground-level ozone concentration reasonably well without heavy computational cost provided the emission of ozone precursors are given.     

Sensitivity of ozone concentrations to diurnal variations of surface emissions in Mexico City: A WRF/Chem modeling study

Sensitivity of ozone (O₃) concentrations in the Mexico City area to diurnal variations of surface air pollutant emissions is investigated using the WRF/Chem model. Our analysis shows that diurnal variations of nitrogen oxides (NO_x = NO + NO₂) and volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions play an important role in controlling the O₃ concentrations in the Mexico City area. The contributions of NO_x and VOC emissions to daytime O₃ concentrations are very sensitive to the morning emissions of NO_x and VOCs. Increase in morning NO_x emissions leads to decrease in daytime O₃ concentrations as well as the afternoon O₃ maximum, while increase in morning VOC emissions tends to increase in O₃ concentrations in late morning and early afternoon, indicating that O₃ production in Mexico City is under VOC-limited regime. It is also found that the nighttime O₃ is independent of VOCs, but is sensitive to NO_x. The emissions of VOCs during other periods (early morning, evening, and night) have only small impacts on O₃ concentrations, while the emissions of NO_x have important impacts on O₃ concentrations in the evening and the early morning.This study suggests that shifting emission pattern, while keeping the total emissions unchanged, has important impacts on air quality. For example, delaying the morning emission peak from 8 am to 10 am significantly reduced the morning peaks of NO_x and VOCs, as well as the afternoon O₃ maxima. It suggests that without reduction of total emission, the daytime O₃ concentrations can be significantly reduced by changing the diurnal variations of the emissions of O₃ precursors.     

The sensitivity of the CHIMERE model to emissions reduction scenarios on air quality in Northern Italy

The sensitivity of the CHIMERE model to emission reduction scenarios on particulate matter PM2.5 and ozone (O₃) in Northern Italy is studied. The emissions of NO_x, PM2.5 SO₂, VOC or NH₃ were reduced by 50% for different source sectors for the Lombardy region, together with 5 additional scenarios to estimate the effect of local measures on improving the air quality for the Po valley area. Firstly, we evaluate the model performance by comparing calculated surface aerosol concentrations for the standard case (no emission reductions) with observations for January and June 2005. Calculated monthly mean PM10 concentrations are in general underestimated. For June, modelled PM10 concentrations slightly overestimate the measurements. Calculated monthly mean SO₄, NO₃^?, NH₄⁺ concentrations are in good agreement with the observations for January and June. Secondly, the model sensitivity of emission reduction scenarios on PM2.5 and O₃ calculated concentrations for the Po valley area is evaluated. The most effective scenarios to abate PM2.5 concentration are based on the SNAP2 (non-industrial combustion plants) and SNAP7 (road traffic) sectors, for which the NO_x and PM2.5 emissions are reduced by 50%. The number of days that the 2015 PM2.5 limit value of 25 μg m^?3 in Milan is exceeded by reducing primary PM2.5 and NO_x emissions for SNAP2 and 7 by 50%, does not change in January when compared to the standard case for the Milan area. It appears that 40% of the PM2.5 concentration in the greater Milan area is caused by the emissions surrounding the Lombardy region and from the model boundary conditions.This study also showed that a more effective pollutant reduction (emissions) per ton of pollutant reduced (concentrations) for the greater Milan area is obtained by reducing the primary PM2.5 emissions for SNAP7 by 50%. The most effective scenario on PM2.5 decrease for which precursor emissions are reduced is achieved by reducing SO₂ emissions by 50% for SNAP7.Our study showed that during summer time, the largest reductions in O₃ concentrations are achieved for SNAP7 emission reductions, when volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are reduced by 50%.     

In situ measurements of NO,NO2, NOy,and O3 in Dinghushan (112°E, 23°N), China during autumn 2008

Measurements of O₃, NO, NO₂, and NO_y mixing ratios were carried out at a station-Dinghushan in Guangdong province of China from Oct. 18th, 2008 to Nov. 7th, 2008. This research shows that under conditions of a strong subtropical high (temperature high, relative humidity low), on Oct. 29th, 2008 the Dinghushan station observed severe photochemical pollution. The Maximum hour average concentration of O₃ reached 128 ppbv, and the serious photochemical pollution is caused by superposition of local photochemical reaction and regional transport. The observation that NO_x ozone production efficiency (OPE) values for high O₃ pollution on Oct. 29–30th, 2008 were 10.5 and 15, which were more than the values of the city source region and lower than that of the surrounding clean areas. It means the sensitivity of O₃ generated was transitioning from VOCs limited condition to NOx-limited regime. By applying a Smog Production Model, the results show that the extent of reaction values less than 0.6 were occurred on 17 days during campaign, and 13 days for the extents of reactions more than 0.6. However, there were no data with values over 0.8, which indicates that the observation station represent a VOCs sensitive system during campaign. Analysis of the extents of reactions and wind data show that the pollution is mostly subject to a southeasterly airflow influence.     

High NOx levels and lack of ozone in downtown Caracas

An evaluation of the NO, NO₂ and O₃ concentrations in downtown Caracas atmosphere at two different heights (1.5 and 56 m ) during the dry and wet season was performed.The qualitative variation of NO and NO₂ concentrations throughout the day was the same for all conditions. The profiles are explained considering the automobile emissions and the fates by photochemical reactions and dispersion. The daily mean averages for NO_x exceed all available air quality standards, making the downtown Caracas air polluted with these compounds at harmful levels.The O₃ concentrations are lower than the natural background levels practically all day long for all conditions. This lack of O₃ is explained mainly by the very high continuous NO emissions occuring in Caracas. NO reacts very fast with O₃ consuming all the O₃ produced by photochemical reactions. Possible health implications of the low O₃ levels are pointed out.     

Precursor reductions and ground-level ozone in the Continental United States

Numerous papers analyze ground-level ozone (O₃) trends since the 1980s, but few have linked O₃ trends with observed changes in nitrogen oxide (NO_x) and volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions and ambient concentrations. This analysis of emissions and ambient measurements examines this linkage across the United States on multiple spatial scales from continental to urban. O₃ concentrations follow the general decreases in both NO_x and VOC emissions and ambient concentrations of precursors (nitrogen dioxide, NO₂; nonmethane organic compounds, NMOCs). Annual fourth-highest daily peak 8-hr average ozone and annual average or 98th percentile daily maximum hourly NO₂ concentrations show a statistically significant (p < 0.05) linear fit whose slope is less than 1:1 and intercept is in the 30 to >50 ppbv range. This empirical relationship is consistent with current understanding of O₃ photochemistry. The linear O₃–NO₂ relationships found from our multispatial scale analysis can be used to extrapolate the rate of change of O₃ with projected NO_x emission reductions, which suggests that future declines in annual fourth-highest daily average 8-hr maximum O₃ concentrations are unlikely to reach 65 ppbv or lower everywhere in the next decade. Measurements do not indicate increased annual reduction rates in (high) O₃ concentrations beyond the multidecadal precursor proportionality, since aggressive measures for NO_x and VOC reduction are in place and have not produced an accelerated O₃ reduction rate beyond that prior to the mid-2000s. Empirically estimated changes in O₃ with emissions suggest that O₃ is less sensitive to precursor reductions than is found by the CAMx (v. 6.1) photochemical model. Options for increasing the rate of O₃ change are limited by photochemical factors, including the increase in NO_x sensitivity with time (NMOC/NO_x ratio increase), increase in O₃ production efficiency at lower NO_x concentrations (higher O₃/NO_y ratio), and the presence of natural NO_x and NMOC precursors and background O₃.

Implications:?This analysis demonstrates empirical relations between O₃ and precursors based on long term trends in U.S. locations. The results indicate that ground-level O₃ concentrations have responded predictably to reductions in VOC and NO_x since the 1980s. The analysis reveals linear relations between the highest O₃ and NO₂ concentrations. Extrapolation of the historic trends to the future with expected continued precursor reductions suggest that achieving the 2014 proposed reduction in the U.S. National Ambient Air Quality Standard to a level between 65 and 70 ppbv is unlikely within the next decade. Comparison of measurements with national results from a regulatory photochemical model, CAMx, v. 6.1, suggests that model predictions are more sensitive to emissions changes than the observations would support.     

The effect of variability in industrial emissions on ozone formation in Houston, Texas

Ambient observations have indicated that high concentrations of ozone observed in the Houston/Galveston area are associated with plumes of highly reactive hydrocarbons, mixed with NO_x, from industrial facilities. Ambient observations and industrial process data, such as mass flow rates for industrial flares, indicate that the VOCs associated with these industrial emissions can have significant temporal variability. To characterize the effect of this variability in emissions on ozone formation in Houston, data were collected on the temporal variability of industrial emissions or emission surrogates (e.g., mass flow rates to flares). The observed emissions variability was then used to construct regionwide emission inventories with variable industrial emissions, and the impacts of the variability on ozone formation were examined for two types of meteorological conditions, both of which lead to high ozone concentrations in Houston. The air quality simulations indicate that variability in industrial emissions has the potential to cause increases and decreases of 10–52 ppb (13–316%), or more, in ozone concentration. The largest of these differences are restricted to regions of 10–20 km², but the variability also has the potential to increase regionwide maxima in ozone concentrations by up to 12 ppb.     

Application of a Lagrangian particle model to assess the impact of harbour,industrial and urban activities on air quality in the Taranto area,Italy

This paper evaluates the relative impact on air quality of harbour emissions, with respect to other emission sources located in the same area. The impact assessment study was conducted in the city of Taranto, Italy. This area was considered as representative of a typical Mediterranean harbour region, where shipping, industries and urban activities co-exist at a short distance, producing an ideal case to study the interaction among these different sources. Chemical and meteorological field campaigns were carried out to provide data to this study. An emission inventory has been developed taking into account industrial sources, traffic, domestic heating, fugitive and harbour emissions. A 3D Lagrangian particle dispersion model (SPRAY) has then been applied to the study area using reconstructed meteorological fields calculated by the diagnostic meteorological model MINERVE. 3D short term hourly concentrations have been computed for both all and specific sources. Industrial activities are found to be the main contributor to SO₂. Industry and traffic emissions are mainly responsible for NO_x simulated concentrations. CO concentrations are found to be mainly related to traffic emissions, while primary PM₁₀ simulated concentrations tend to be linked to industrial and fugitive emissions. Contributions of harbour activities to the seasonal average concentrations of SO₂ and NO_x are predicted to be up to 5 and 30 μg m⁻³, respectively to be compared to a overall peak values of 60 μg m⁻³ for SO₂ and 70 μg m⁻³ for NO_x. At selected urban monitoring stations, SO₂ and NO_x average source contributions are predicted to be both of about 9% from harbour activities, while 87% and 41% respectively of total concentrations are predicted to be of industrial origin.     

Effects of uncertainty in the reaction of the hydroxyl radical with nitrogen dioxide on model-simulated ozone control strategies

We evaluated the effect of a 20% reduction in the rate constant of the reaction of the hydroxyl radical with nitrogen dioxide to produce nitric acid (OH+NO₂→HNO₃) on model predictions of ozone mixing ratios ([O₃]) and the effectiveness of reductions in emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOC) and nitrogen oxides (NO_x) for reducing [O₃]. By comparing a model simulation with the new rate constant to a base case scenario, we found that the [O₃] increase was between 2 and 6% for typical rural conditions and between 6 and 16% for typical urban conditions. The increases in [O₃] were less than proportional to the reduction in the OH+NO₂ rate constant because of negative feedbacks in the photochemical mechanism. Next, we used two different approaches to evaluate how the new OH+NO₂ rate constant changed the effectiveness of reductions in emissions of VOC and NO_x: first, we evaluated the effect on [O₃] sensitivity to small changes in emissions of VOC (d[O₃]/dE_VOC) and NO_x (d[O₃]/dE_NOx); and secondly, we used the empirical kinetic modeling approach to evaluate the effect on the level of emissions reduction necessary to reduce [O₃] to a specified level. Both methods showed that reducing the OH+NO₂ rate constant caused control strategies for VOC to become less effective relative to NO_x control strategies. We found, however, that d[O₃]/dE_VOC and d[O₃]/dE_NOx did not quantitatively predict the magnitude of the change in the control strategy because the [O₃] response was nonlinear with respect to the size of the emissions reduction. We conclude that model sensitivity analyses calculated using small emissions changes do not accurately characterize the effect of uncertainty in model inputs (in this case, the OH+NO₂ rate constant) on O₃ attainment strategies. Instead, the effects of changes in model inputs should be studied using large changes in precursor emissions to approximate realistic attainment scenarios.     

Photochemical production of ozone and control strategy for Southern Taiwan

An observation-based method (OBM) is developed to evaluate the ozone (O₃) production efficiency (O₃ molecules produced per NO_x molecule consumed) and O₃ production rate (P(O₃)) during a field campaign in southern Taiwan. The method can also provide an estimate of the concentration of OH. A key step in the method is to use observed concentrations of two aromatic hydrocarbons, namely ethylbenzene and m,p-xylene, to estimate the degree of photochemical processing and amounts of photochemically consumed NO_x and NMHCs by OH. In addition, total oxidant (O₃+NO₂) instead of O₃ itself turns out to be very useful for representing ozone production in the OBM approach. The average O₃ production efficiency during the field campaign in Fall (2003) is found to be about 10.2±3.9. The relationship of P(O₃) with NO_x is examined and compared with a one-dimensional (1D) photochemical model. Values of P(O₃) derived from the OBM are slightly lower than those calculated in the 1D model. However, OH concentrations estimated by the OBM are about a factor of 2 lower than the 1D model. Fresh emissions, which affect the degree of photochemical processing appear to be a major cause of the underestimate. We have developed a three-dimensional (3D) OBM O₃ production diagram that resembles the EKMA ozone isopleth diagram to study the relationship of the total oxidant versus O₃ precursors. The 3D OBM O₃ production diagram suggests that reducing emissions of NMHCs are more effective in controlling O₃ than reducing NO_x. However, significant uncertainties remain in the OBM, and considerable more work is required to minimize these uncertainties before a definitive control strategy can be reached. The observation-based approach provides a good alternative to measuring peroxy radicals for evaluating the production of O₃ and formulating O₃ control strategy in urban and suburban environments.     

Modeling an air pollution episode in northwestern United States: Identifying the effect of nitrogen oxide and volatile organic compound emission changes on air pollutants formation using direct sensitivity analysis

Air quality impacts of volatile organic compound (VOC) and nitrogen oxide (NO_x) emissions from major sources over the northwestern United States are simulated. The comprehensive nested modeling system comprises three models: Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ), Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF), and Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE). In addition, the decoupled direct method in three dimensions (DDM-3D) is used to determine the sensitivities of pollutant concentrations to changes in precursor emissions during a severe smog episode in July of 2006. The average simulated 8-hr daily maximum O₃ concentration is 48.9 ppb, with 1-hr O₃ maxima up to 106 ppb (40 km southeast of Seattle). The average simulated PM_2.5 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter <2.5 μm) concentration at the measurement sites is 9.06 μg m^?3, which is in good agreement with the observed concentration (8.06 μg m^?3). In urban areas (i.e., Seattle, Vancouver, etc.), the model predicts that, on average, a reduction of NO_x emissions is simulated to lead to an increase in average 8-hr daily maximum O₃ concentrations, and will be most prominent in Seattle (where the greatest sensitivity is??0.2 ppb per % change of mobile sources). On the other hand, decreasing NO_x emissions is simulated to decrease the 8-hr maximum O₃ concentrations in remote and forested areas. Decreased NO_x emissions are simulated to slightly increase PM_2.5 in major urban areas. In urban areas, a decrease in VOC emissions will result in a decrease of 8-hr maximum O₃ concentrations. The impact of decreased VOC emissions from biogenic, mobile, nonroad, and area sources on average 8-hr daily maximum O₃ concentrations is up to 0.05 ppb decrease per % of emission change, each. Decreased emissions of VOCs decrease average PM_2.5 concentrations in the entire modeling domain. In major cities, PM_2.5 concentrations are more sensitive to emissions of VOCs from biogenic sources than other sources of VOCs. These results can be used to interpret the effectiveness of VOC or NO_x controls over pollutant concentrations, especially for localities that may exceed National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS).

Implications: The effect of NO_x and VOC controls on ozone and PM_2.5 concentrations in the northwestern United States is examined using the decoupled direct method in three dimensions (DDM-3D) in a state-of-the-art three-dimensional chemical transport model (CMAQ). NO_x controls are predicted to increase PM_2.5 and ozone in major urban areas and decrease ozone in more remote and forested areas. VOC reductions are helpful in reducing ozone and PM_2.5 concentrations in urban areas. Biogenic VOC sources have the largest impact on O₃ and PM_2.5 concentrations.     

Formaldehyde Concentrations Inside Private Residences: A Mail-Out Approach to Indoor Air Monitoring

Abstract

The main objective of this study was to monitor the volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in the stack gas released from organic chemical industrial plants to determine emission factors. Samples from 52 stacks, with or without air pollution control devices (APCDs), from seven industrial processes were taken and VOCs measured using U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Method 18. These 7 processes, including 26 plants, were the manufacturers of acrylonitrile–butadiene–styrene (ABS), polyvinyl chloride (PVC), polystyrene (PS), acrylic resin (ACR), vinyl chloride (VC), para–terephthalic acid (PTA), and synthetic fiber (SYF). The results clearly indicate significant variations of emission factors among the various industrial processes, particularly emission factors for those without APCDs. As expected, those with APCDs yield much less emission factors. Regardless of those with or without APCDs, the order of manufacturing processes with regard to VOC emission factors is SYF > ABS > PS > ACR > PTA > PVC > VC. The emission factors for some processes also differ from those in EPA–42 data file. The VOC profiles further indicate that some VOCs are not listed in the U.S. VOC/Particulate Matter Speciation Data System (SPECIATE). The potential O₃ formation is determined from the total amount of VOC emitted for each of seven processes. The resultant O₃ yield varied from 0.22 (ACR) to 2.33 g O₃ g^–1 VOC (PTA). The significance of this O₃ yield is discussed.     

An Environmental Decision-Making Tool for Evaluating Ground-Level Ozone-Related Health Effects

Abstract

A computer model called the Ozone Risk Assessment Model (ORAM) was developed to evaluate the health effects caused by ground-level ozone (O₃) exposure. ORAM was coupled with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Third-Generation Community Multiscale Air Quality model (Models-3/CMAQ), the state-of-the-art air quality model that predicts O₃ concentration and allows the examination of various scenarios in which emission rates of O₃ precursors (basically, oxides of nitrogen [NO_x] and volatile organic compounds) are varied. The principal analyses in ORAM are exposure model performance evaluation, health-effects calculations (expected number of respiratory hospital admissions), economic valuation, and sensitivity and uncertainty analysis through a Monte Carlo simulation. As a demonstration of the system, ORAM was applied to the eastern Tennessee region, and the entire O₃ season was simulated for a base case (typical emissions) and three different emission scenarios. The results indicated that a synergism occurs when reductions in NO_x emissions from mobile and point sources were applied simultaneously. A 12.9% reduction in asthma hospital admissions is expected when both mobile and point source NO_x emissions are reduced (50 and 70%, respectively) versus a 5.8% reduction caused by mobile source and a 3.5% reduction caused by point sources when these emission sources are reduced individually.     

The relation between ozone,NOx and hydrocarbons in urban and polluted rural environments

Research over the past ten years has created a more detailed and coherent view of the relation between O₃ and its major anthropogenic precursors, volatile organic compounds (VOC) and oxides of nitrogen (NO_x). This article presents a review of insights derived from photochemical models and field measurements. The ozone–precursor relationship can be understood in terms of a fundamental split into a NO_x-senstive and VOC-sensitive (or NO_x-saturated) chemical regimes. These regimes are associated with the chemistry of odd hydrogen radicals and appear in different forms in studies of urbanized regions, power plant plumes and the remote troposphere. Factors that affect the split into NO_x-sensitive and VOC-sensitive chemistry include: VOC/NO_x ratios, VOC reactivity, biogenic hydrocarbons, photochemical aging, and rates of meteorological dispersion. Analyses of ozone–NO_x–VOC sensitivity from 3D photochemical models show a consistent pattern, but predictions for the impact of reduced NO_x and VOC in indivdual locations are often very uncertain. This uncertainty can be identified by comparing predictions from different model scenarios that reflect uncertainties in meteorology, anthropogenic and biogenic emissions. Several observation-based approaches have been proposed that seek to evaluate ozone–NO_x–VOC sensitivity directly from ambient measurements (including ambient VOC, reactive nitrogen, and peroxides). Observation-based approaches have also been used to evaluate emission rates, ozone production efficiency, and removal rates of chemically active species. Use of these methods in combination with models can significantly reduce the uncertainty associated with model predictions.     

Trends and Variability of Ground-Level O3 in Connecticut over the Period 1981–1997

Abstract

The temporal and spatial characteristics of ground-level (tropospheric) O₃ measured at 10 monitoring stations in Connecticut were studied from 1981 to 1997. To detect the O₃ trend caused by changes in precursor emissions, moving average filters and a linear least-squared regression model were used to eliminate the short-term variation and effects of temperature from raw time-series O₃ data. The results showed a significant decrease in the number of days exceeding the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) and a small change in total O₃ concentration. The analysis indicated that the variation of daily maximum O₃, caused by changes in emissions, explained more than 10% of the total O₃ variation in Bridgeport and East Hartford during the past 17 years. Meanwhile, a strong weekly cycle was also found in O₃ time-series data, resulting in lower O₃ concentration in urban areas than in nonur-ban areas, implying that land use and land cover have impacts on the spatial distribution of ground-level O₃ in Connecticut.     

Photochemical Smog Modeling for Assessment of Potential Impacts of Different Management Strategies on Air Quality of the Bangkok Metropolitan Region,Thailand

Abstract

A photochemical smog model system, the Variable-Grid Urban Airshed Model/Systems Applications International Mesoscale Model (UAM-V/SAIMM), was used to investigate photochemical pollution in the Bangkok Metropolitan Region (BMR). The model system was first applied to simulate a historical photochemical smog episode of two days (January 13-14, 1997) using the 1997 anthropogenic emission database available at the Pollution Control Department and an estimated biogenic emission. The output 1-hr ozone (O₃) for BMR, however, did not meet the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency suggested performance criteria. The simulated minimum and maximum O₃ values in the domain were much higher than the observations. Multiple model runs with different precursor emission reduction scenarios showed that the best model performance with the simulated 1-hr O₃ meeting all the criteria was obtained when the volatile organic compound (VOC) and oxides of nitrogen (NO_x) emission from mobile source reduced by 50% and carbon monoxide by 20% from the original database. Various combinations of anthropogenic and biogenic emissions in Bangkok and surrounding provinces were simulated to assess the contribution of different sources to O₃ pollution in the city. O₃ formation in Bangkok was found to be more VOC-sensitive than NO_x-sensitive. To attain the Thailand ambient air quality standard for 1-hr O₃ of 100 ppb, VOC emission in BMR should be reduced by 50-60%. Management strategies considered in the scenario study consist of Stage I, Stage II vapor control, replacement of two-stroke by four-stroke motorcycles, 100% compressed natural gas bus, 100% natural gas-fired power plants, and replacement of methyltertiarybutylether by ethanol as an additive for gasoline.     

A diagnostic comparison of measured and model-predicted speciated VOC concentrations

This study compares speciated model-predicted concentrations (i.e., mixing ratios) of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) with measurements from the Photochemical Assessment Monitoring Stations (PAMS) network at sites within the northeastern US during June–August of 2006. Measurements of total non-methane organic compounds (NMOC), ozone (O₃), oxides of nitrogen (NO_x) and reactive nitrogen species (NO_y) are used for supporting analysis. The measured VOC species were grouped into the surrogate classes used by the Carbon Bond IV (CB4) chemical mechanism. It was found that the model typically over-predicted all the CB4 VOC species, except isoprene, which might be linked to overestimated emissions. Even with over-predictions in the CB4 VOC species, model performance for daily maximum O₃ was typically within ±15%. Analysis at an urban site in NY, where both NMOC and NO_x data were available, suggested that the reasonable ozone performance may be possibly due to compensating overestimated NO_x concentrations, thus modulating the NMOC/NO_x ratio to be in similar ranges as that of observations.