From comparative risk assessment to multi-criteria decision analysis and adaptive management: recent developments and applications

Environmental risk assessment and decision-making strategies over the last several decades have become increasingly more sophisticated, information-intensive, and complex, including such approaches as expert judgment, cost-benefit analysis, and toxicological risk assessment. One tool that has been used to support environmental decision-making is comparative risk assessment (CRA), but CRA lacks a structured method for arriving at an optimal project alternative. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) provides better-supported techniques for the comparison of project alternatives based on decision matrices, and it also provides structured methods for the incorporation of project stakeholders' opinions in the ranking of alternatives. We argue that the inherent uncertainty in our ability to predict ecosystem evolution and response to different management policies requires shifting from optimization-based management to an adaptive management paradigm. This paper brings together a multidisciplinary review of existing decision-making approaches at regulatory agencies in the United States and Europe and synthesizes state-of-the-art research in CRA, MCDA, and adaptive management methods applicable to environmental remediation and restoration projects. We propose a basic decision analytic framework that couples MCDA with adaptive management and its public participation and stakeholder value elicitation methods, and we demonstrate application of the framework to a realistic case study based on contaminated sediment management issues in the New York/New Jersey Harbor.     

Decision support for sustainable manufacturing using decision guidance query language

Sustainability has become a very significant research topic as it impacts many different manufacturing industries. Therefore, the technologies for monitoring, analysing, evaluating and optimising the sustainability performance of manufacturing processes and systems are very critical for decision makers on the shop floor. This paper introduces a decision guidance management system that provides actionable recommendations through quantitative analysis of the sustainability measures of manufacturing processes and systems based on life cycle assessment. The system determines decision preferences through dynamically collected data and decision makers' responses, taking into account the prevailing constraints. Optimal decisions can be derived using mathematical and constraint programming. By using decision guidance query language, this methodology allows users to make optimal decisions without an extensive mathematical or operations research background. Knowledge of relational databases is sufficient for a user to formulate the optimisation problem and obtain optimal solutions. The methodology is demonstrated with a machining operation case study, in which a list of sustainability metrics are identified and sustainability modelling methods are proposed. Important sustainable machining performance measures are optimised, resulting in actionable recommendations.     

Sustainability assessment as problem structuring: three typical ways

Sustainability assessment (SA) is an increasingly popular term referring to a broad range of approaches to align decision-making with the principles of sustainability. Nevertheless, in public and private sectors sustainability results are still disappointing, and this paper reflects on this problem and proposes a way forward. We argue that, because sustainability issues are generally wicked problems (i.e. a ‘complex of interconnected factors in a pluralistic context’), effective assessments need to be reflexive about the definition of the issue and about the criteria for sustainable solutions. Based on a distinction of policy problems, we characterize SA as a form of problem structuring, and we distinguish three typical ways of problem structuring, corresponding to three different ways of integrating reflexivity in the assessment. We illustrate these routes in three examples. We discuss the way reflexivity is integrated in each example by discussing the mix of methods, SA process and epistemological balance. Rather than merely calling for more stakeholder participation, our aim is to call for more reflexivity integrated into the SA approach, and we conclude by proposing a process map for reflexive sustainability assessment to support this.     

Modelling change in state of complex ecological systems in space and time: An application to sustainable grazing management

Meeting the challenge of sustainable development requires substantial advances in understanding of the interaction of natural and human systems. The emerging ecosystem management paradigm of multiple stable states, non-linear systems behaviour, discontinuous change, self-organisation and multiple development pathways has major implications for when and how change in complex systems occurs and how it can be managed. It also poses considerable challenges for modelling the structure and function of natural and human management systems, including fundamental constraints relating to: scaling mismatches, synthesis of non-homogeneous information, multiscaled system interactions, complex management systems, uncertainty in causal relationships, assessment of trade-offs, and validation. This paper examines how a decision support system (DSS) for sustainable grazing management, called Landassess DSS, attempts to deal with some of these issues through an integrated systems approach to DSS development. This approach utilises object-oriented techniques, knowledge-based systems, geographical information systems (GIS), and a state-and-transition model framework to model the critical change processes. It provides for the identification of the major driving factors and constraints to change in complex resource management systems, as well as the assessment of the likely trade-offs between resource sustainability and economic production at a scale relevant to management decision-making (i.e., paddock or property).     

Converging impact assessment discourses for sustainable development: the case of Flanders,Belgium

The scientific field of impact assessment encompasses various ‘traditions’, each reflecting a set of particular policy objectives. This paper analyses two types of impact assessment. Regulatory impact analysis focuses on better regulation and competitiveness, while sustainability assessment fosters a holistic approach centred on the values of sustainable development. Through an analysis of the political discourses at the level of the European Union and at the sub-national level of the Flemish Region of Belgium, elements of convergence between the better regulation and sustainable development discourse are identified. The paper analyses how integrated impact assessment can be an integrative tool that allows to merge both discourses and to implement them in day-to-day decision-making. The potential of the existing Flemish regulatory impact analysis framework to be the starting point of an integrated assessment scheme for sustainable development is advocated and motivated.     

Life cycle assessment environmental data for structural steel construction in Greece

The construction industry is a critical sector in relation to sustainable development as its optimisation in terms of the consumption of resources can provide significant environmental benefits. To achieve this, a number of tools and methodologies have been developed to assist decision making. Life cycle assessment is one of the most acknowledged and widely used methodologies to assess the sustainability of construction works. Its efficient use, however, requires environmental data that in some cases are not yet available. Especially for sectors such as steel construction in which the potential for sustainable development is increased due to the recycling and reuse potential of the material, the lack of such data slows sustainability-related progress down. The current research addresses this issue by collecting primary environmental data for cold-formed structural steel and compiling the required data-sets. The data-sets are used to assess the environmental impact of an existing steel building and identify how and to what extent the environment is burdened by its construction. The findings of the research include the aforementioned environmental data which can be used in environmental analyses related to construction projects, while additional conclusions concerning the environmental impact of steel buildings in terms of quantity and type were also drawn.     

Regional risk assessment for contaminated sites Part 3: Spatial decision support system

Large scale (e.g. regional or national) assessments of contaminated sites may be very costly in terms of investigation and methodological (i.e. risk assessment procedures) requirements and may produce a quantity of information that usually discourages examination by decision-makers. Moreover, most of the existing tools effectively support local environmental risk assessment and management, but lack the capabilities of larger scale analysis, not mentioning the absence of the relevant component of socio-economic prioritization. To respond to the concerns and the management needs of experts and decision makers, the Spatial decision support sYstem for Regional rIsk Assessment of Degraded land (SYRIADE DSS) was developed and is presented according to its three modules: Regional Risk Assessment, Socio-economic Assessment and Integrated Assessment, respectively. The system allows to rank potentially contaminated sites for priority of investigation, when no information on characterization and risk by site specific methodologies is available. This GIS-based system embeds an innovative spatial and relative risk assessment procedure, and proposes the integrated analysis of different data (environmental and socio-economic) for the concerned sites, eliciting when necessary experts' knowledge and stakeholders' values (through Multi Criteria Decision Analysis, MCDA, methodologies). The application to a Polish case-study shows the performance and the flexibility of the system in investigating and mapping (potentially) contaminated sites at the regional scale.     

Participatory scenario development for integrated sustainability assessment

The paper discusses the role of visions within sustainability assessment and governance for sustainable development in Europe. Currently, our societies (still) develop along an unsustainable path, which results in a number of persistent problems (climate change, loss of biodiversity, poverty, etc.). Integrated sustainability assessment (ISA) is one approach designed to initiate transitions towards sustainability. Visions of a sustainable future form an important part of ISA. These visions support the process of discussing how the transition from today’s societies/systems to a sustainable future can be achieved. According to the principles of ISA, visions should be developed in a participatory way, thus including the ideas and perceptions of stakeholders, decision-makers, experts and/or citizens. The paper starts with an introduction of the concepts of visions and scenarios and describes exemplary methods for their participatory development. Then, the main concepts for integrated sustainability assessment in comparison with other impact assessments are discussed. The main body of the paper presents experiences in three projects (ARTEMIS, ALARM, ECOCHANGE) in which visions and scenarios of sustainable futures were developed with stakeholders. The paper concludes with lessons learned and suggestions for future applications for participatory scenario development.     

A hybrid approach using AHP–TOPSIS–entropy methods for sustainable ranking of structural materials

Nowadays, many countries are looking towards sustainability as a goal because our world has limited resources and serious environmental impacts. In the construction industry, the process of sustainable selection of structural material is considered one of the keys to achieve more sustainable construction. In this paper, the theories of decision making are utilised to develop an approach for evaluation and ranking the structural materials over their total life based on sustainability criteria using multi-attribute decision-making methods. One of them is Analytical Hierarchy Process which is utilised to build the problem hierarchical structure and assign weights of the predetermined sustainable factors. The other is Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to the Ideal Solution which is utilised to rank the structural materials within both each material life cycle phase and the complete material life cycle phases. The third is the concept of entropy by Shannon to evaluate the weight factor for each phase of material life cycle. The proposed approach presents an objective, systematic and comprehensive method for the sustainable ranking of materials that links between the structural element design and the sustainable selection of materials.     

The future of sustainability science: a solutions-oriented research agenda

Over the last decade, sustainability science has been at the leading edge of widespread efforts from the social and natural sciences to produce use-inspired research. Yet, how knowledge generated by sustainability science and allied fields will contribute to transitions toward sustainability remains a critical theoretical and empirical question for basic and applied research. This article explores the limitations of sustainability science research to move the field beyond the analysis of problems in coupled systems to interrogate the social, political and technological dimensions of linking knowledge and action. Over the next decade, sustainability science can strengthen its empirical, theoretical and practical contributions by developing along four research pathways focused on the role of values in science and decision-making for sustainability: how communities at various scales envision and pursue sustainable futures; how socio-technical change can be fostered at multiple scales; the promotion of social and institutional learning for sustainable development.     

Evaluation of sustainability using an integrated approach at process and product level: a case study

The present world is facing problems like rapid depletion of natural resources and undesired environmental changes on a global scale. Manufacturing organisations are realising the importance of mitigating the present crisis and are adopting sustainable manufacturing principles. Since it is important to achieve sustainable manufacturing, sustainability assessment models were developed. Sustainability assessment models have their own drawbacks and may not provide clear scope for complete sustainable development. A system approach has been developed to overcome this shortcoming by integrating various sustainability assessment models that are already in practice. This article reports the advantages of collecting the advantages of individual sustainability assessment models and how the implementation of the integrated approach has helped to identify the current sustainability level and the scope for future developments in an automotive industry.     

Sustainability risk identification in product development

Sustainability-related issues present significant financial, strategic, compliance and operational risks to manufacturers. Many of these risks directly or indirectly result from the way a product is designed and managed across its life cycle. Assessing sustainability risk (S _R) at the product design stage is crucial for the development of products that both minimise sustainability risk exposure and are environmentally sustainable. Managing the costs associated with these risks requires risk management intervention at the design stage before these costs are committed throughout the life cycle (production, use, end-of-life). The goal of the sustainability risk assessment (SRA) methodology is to provide an approach to comparing the financial cost of a ‘sustainable product’ vs. an ‘unsustainable product’, by factoring in the effects of S _R on life-cycle cost. The SRA methodology demonstrates that, in some cases, sustainable products cost less than unsustainable products when sustainability risk is considered in the costing analysis. This paper outlines the first step of the SRA methodology, which is a process for identifying S _R inherent in the product life cycle. Once key risks are identified, the subsequent steps of the SRA assess and prioritise these risks for treatment through changes to product design and materials composition.     

A sustainability assessment framework for regional-scale Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) incorporating Inclusive Wealth,Satoumi, and ecosystem services science

Sustainability has become an increasingly important concept in the last few decades; however, its operational usefulness has not always been clear. In other words, some sustainability assessments may not provide decision makers with the practical information necessary to perform the assessment. This study proposes a novel operational sustainable assessment framework for Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) on a regional-scale based on a feasibility study in the Seto Inland Sea in Japan. The framework draws upon three separately developed concepts: Inclusive Wealth as the technical framework for the sustainability indicators; Satoumi (a traditional Japanese multifaceted coastal zone concept); and ecosystem services science. These three concepts complement each other when seeking to corroborate an assessment framework. Indicators based on the framework and relevant to the case study site were identified. Although Satoumi is a traditional Japanese knowledge, it is believed that its application may be instructive for other areas, as similar concepts can be found and utilized for the conduct of ICZM sustainability assessments.     

Application of fuzzy QFD for enabling sustainability

Contemporary manufacturing organisations recognise sustainability as an important concept for survival. Environmental awareness and recycling regulations have been compelling manufacturers and consumers to evolve sustainable strategies. The modern customers' voices need to be translated with care into technical requirements. Quality function deployment (QFD) is a technique extensively used for this purpose. In order to cope with the vagueness associated with relationships and correlations in QFD, fuzzy numbers have been integrated within a QFD framework and fuzzy QFD has been used in this study. The study is concerned with the application of fuzzy QFD for enabling sustainability in an Indian modular switches manufacturing organisation. The approach is effective in the identification of sustainable competitive bases, sustainable decision domains, sustainable attributes and sustainable enablers for the organisation. The improvement in sustainability has been measured from three perspectives. The results gained as a result of the study indicated that fuzzy QFD could be used as an enabler of sustainability.     

Regional environmental assessment (REA) and local Agenda 21 implementation

The implementation of sustainable development requires several support instruments. One of the major instruments in the Rio Declaration to support this process has been environmental assessment that has been given considerable emphasis as to its potential ability to help achieve more sustainable forms of development. Regional environmental assessment (REA) has shown to be effective in supporting local sustainable development process. Selected environmental assessment methods have been␣used to improve the REA exercise and provide reliable data for decision-making not only to correct environmental problems due to past unsustainable social-economic developments but also help local governments to implement Agenda 21 (AG21) plans and projects.     

Relative Assessment of Indicators in Sustainability Enhancement (RAISE): a first approach in the manufacturing stage of products

The estimation of the sustainability performance of products requires tools to provide systematic approaches to the definition of impacts, indicators and comparative scenarios from early design stages. This paper illustrates the Relative Assessment of Indicators in Sustainability Enhancement (RAISE) methodology that is based on the measure of negative impacts generated during any product life cycle stage. This approach includes a systematic process for the definition and evaluation of indicators to compare the sustainability performance of products considering each indicator individually and using a holistic index of sustainability to entail an overall comparison between products from manufacturing scenarios. The RAISE method is developed with the aim of assessing sustainability performance of product life cycle stages and incorporating this assessment into the decision-making process when comparing different manufacturing scenarios. A guitar capo manufactured in polymeric material is used as case study to demonstrate the use of the method. In this paper, only the manufacturing stage is considered; however, the method can also be employed in other stages of the life cycle.     

Multi-criteria decision analysis in adaptation decision-making: a flood case study in Finland

Decision-making for the purpose of adaptation to climate change typically involves multiple stakeholders, regions and sectors as well as multiple objectives related to the use of resources and perceived benefits. Standard cost–benefit analysis can be argued to take into account easily monetised effects only. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) embedded in participatory processes can therefore play an important role in defining the decision context and exploring stakeholders’ preferences. In this paper, a case study on flood protection of the Kokemäki river running through the city of Pori in West Finland was conducted. The study was realised as a MCDA workshop involving the key stakeholders of the region. The analysis produced a robust ranking of the considered flood protection alternatives. According to the stakeholders, the approach was useful as an exploratory way of gaining a deeper and shared understanding of the flood protection. It was shown that MCDA is well suited for decision-making in adaptation to climate change–enhanced extreme events.     

Animal production in a sustainable agriculture

This paper discusses the role of animal production systems in a sustainable society; sustainability problems within animal production systems; and four measures for the improvement of the contribution to societal sustainability from animal production. Substantial potentials for improvements are identified that were not previously known. The methodological basis is multi-criteria multi-level analysis within integrated assessment where elements in Impredicative Loop Analysis are integrated with management tools in Swedish agriculture and forestry developed during thousands of years, during which the well-being of the Swedish society and its economic and military power were functions of the land-use skill. The issue—the sustainability footprint of global animal production—is complex and available data are limited. The Swedish case is used as a starting point for an analysis of international relevance. Data from FAO and OECD support the relevance of extrapolating results from the Swedish case to level. The four measures are (i) decrease the consumption of chicken meat in developed nations with 2.6 kg per capita and year; (ii) develop the capacity of ruminants to produce high-quality food from otherwise marginal agroecosystems; (iii) improve milk production per cow with a factor four on global level; and (iv) increase feeding efficiency in milk production globally would substantially improve the societal contribution in terms of increased food supply and decreased pressure on land. The impact of measures (i), (iii) and (iv) on increased global food security was estimated to in total 1.8 billion people in terms of protein supply and a decreased pressure on agricultural land of 217 million ha, of which 41 relate to tropical forests. The 41 million ha of tropical land are due to a decreased demand on soymeal, where this represents more than a halving of total area now used for the production of soymeal. These impacts are of the character either or. The quality of the measures is as first-time estimates, supporting choices of where to direct further efforts in analysis. Two areas were identified as critical for achieving this potential: Feeding strategies to dairy cows as well as methods commonly used to evaluate the sustainability contribution of animal production needs adjustment, so that they comply with the “laws” of diminishing returns, Liebig’s “law” of the minimum and Shelford’s “law” of tolerance, that is, in agreement with well-known principles for efficient natural resource management and the priorities of UN Millennium Development Goals. If not, global food security is at risk.     

The role of integrated performance model in sustainable envelope design and assessment

The issue of sustainable design and assessment of the residential building envelope is a complex process that requires considering many factors including life cycle performance. As such, in an effort to develop an integrated approach that combines relevant sustainable development factors and life cycle concepts for sustainable designs, an integrated performance model (IPM) was developed. The IPM is an essential tool to aid the sustainable design of the residential building envelope, reduce the carbon emission and the whole residential building energy consumption, thereby ensuring sustainable performance of the building envelope and building sustainability. The IPM application indicates that sustainable performance of the building envelope in extreme weather and climatic condition is significantly influenced by the energy efficiency performance of the development.     

Strategic environmental assessment application for sustainable transport-related air quality policies: a case study in Hanoi City,Vietnam

Recognition has grown among policy-makers that early in the decision-making process, there is a need for an environmental assessment of the effects of the policy, plan, and program (PPP) and their alternatives. Strategic environmental assessment (SEA) is widely recognized as a supporting tool that systematically integrates environmental aspects into strategic decision-making processes, thereby contributing to sustainable development. In this study, SEA was applied for an integrated assessment of environmental, social, and economic impacts of a wide range of scenarios for transport-related air quality policies to help decision-makers in identifying the most sustainable scenario with the purpose of reducing carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations from transport emissions in Hanoi City, Vietnam. In conducting SEA process, the urban air dispersion model MUAIR was used as a quantitative tool in prediction of CO concentrations. To evaluate the predicted impacts of scenarios, the SEA objectives concerning sustainability and the corresponding sustainable indicators were identified. Based on the likely significant predicted impacts on landscape, biodiversity, and health benefits, mitigation measures were proposed. These included planning in infrastructure development and implementation of public education campaign. The results of predicted and evaluated impacts of scenarios as well as proposed mitigation measures were taken into account for supporting sound decision-making that is consistent with the principles of sustainable development. Considering sustainable impacts of the scenarios, the SEA result clearly indicates that a combination of policy for public transport development and policy for installation of oxidation catalytic converter for motorcycles is the most sustainable scenario for reducing CO concentrations from transport emissions.