云南一次致灾暴雨过程WRF模式模拟分析

采用三重嵌套网格,利用NCEP的1°×1°再分析资料以及新一代中尺度预报模式WRF模式,对2014年6月6日08:00-7日08:00川滇切变线致灾暴雨过程进行了数值模拟实验,并对结果进行诊断分析。结果表明:WRF模式可以较为客观地模拟出暴雨过程的落区和强度,较好地反映了强降水过程的实况和基本特征,模式能很好地指示出强降水发生的高湿水汽条件以及正涡度发展、强烈上升运动和下正上负垂直螺旋度结构的动力条件,模拟的上升运动位置及700 hPa正涡度带和正垂直螺旋带亦对强降水落区有很好的指示性,另外除了模拟的切变线位置稍偏西偏南而导致暴雨区稍偏西偏南外,对高低层影响系统的走向、结构、位置和强度的模拟结果与实际结果相近,表明该模式对云南省切变线致灾暴雨系统具有较好的模拟效果。     

一次局地暴雨过程的湿位涡诊断分析

利用绝热无摩擦大气湿位涡守恒理论和常规的地面观测资料、NCEP再分析资料(水平分辨率1°×1°),对河北省东北部2008年6月25日的局地暴雨过程的湿位涡场进行了诊断和分析.结果表明,MPV1 "正负值区垂直叠加"的配置提供了暴雨发生、发展的有利形势;湿位涡在这次暴雨过程前期850hPa上MPV1＜0及MPV2＞0的演变,综合反映了暴雨区对流不稳定和斜压不稳定的增强;暴雨区位于对流层低层MPV1零线附近、MPV2过渡带的等值线密集区内;湿位涡的大值区与强降水区有很好的对应关系     

淮河流域一次梅雨锋暴雨的中尺度动力特征分析

针对2007年7月8日发生在苏皖淮河流域的暴雨,采用WRF中尺度数值模式模拟结果、FNL每日4次1°*1°再分析资料、6h地面实况观测降水资料和FY-2相当黑体亮温TBB资料对该次降水的发生、发展过程进行了分析研究。结果表明:(1)该次降水在有利的大气环流形势下,强降水发生在呈准东西向分布的梅雨锋上。位于蒙古国与我国华北—东北交界处上空的切断低压给淮河流域输入了冷空气。冷空气与西南低空急流带来的暖湿气流交汇,增强了大气斜压性;(2)正的非热成风涡度的发展促进了高层相对于低层的辐散减压,有利于垂直上升运动的发展;(3)低空强急流带所形成的动力、热力和水汽条件对暴雨落区位置产生了重要影响。     

淮河流域一次致洪大暴雨的中尺度特征分析

利用淮河流域内稠密的区域自动站资料、多普勒天气雷达组网资料、风云二号卫星双星观测资料及LAPS中尺度分析资料,对2007年7月8日淮河流域大暴雨过程的中尺度特征进行了综合分析,得出了一些有意义的结果.(1)这次降雨过程集中在淮河干流,呈现出强降水区稳定少动,高雨强出现频度大的特点,时空分布有利于形成大洪水,是一次典型的致洪大暴雨过程.(2)暴雨区与中低层的中尺度辐合扰动的形成、发展与移动密切相关,同时伴随着中尺度云团、雨团的强烈发展.中尺度雨带具有准静止性,且强度很强,这是此次暴雨过程的一个突出特点.(3)强降雨主要是在α尺度云带上不断生消发展的β中尺度云团,甚至更小的y中尺度云团的生消合并造成的.它们大多生消于32～34°N、114～118°E范围内,β中尺度对流云团的生消、演变和移动与中β尺度雨团的强度和位置有较好的对应关系,强降水发生在中尺度对流云团合并发展和增强阶段.(4)暴雨区具有低层辐合高层辐散、高湿、正涡度和强烈上升运动的特征,它们加强中低层的动力抬升,促使斜压不稳定能量释放,引起垂直涡度的发展,产生很强的降水.强降雨发生时,对流层中层的比湿快速加大,而云中液态水则表现为骤然减小.     

贵州大暴雨的湿位涡诊断分析

利用MM5中尺度模式对贵州2002年6月18日00时~19日00时的暴雨天气过程进行了数值模拟,利用模式输出的基本物理量分析了相当位温并计算出了湿位涡正压、斜压项的值,通过对它们的诊断分析发现:贵州大暴雨随500hPa"漏斗"形MPV1高值区的形成、增强、减弱而开始、增强、减弱。而且还发现高低层MPV1"正负值区垂直叠加"的配置是暴雨发生、发展的有利形势。500hPa上MPV2正值区与对流性降水区对应很好,而且强度变化也一致。     

2011年秋季强台风“纳沙”导致广西灾害成因分析

2011年第17号强台风"纳沙"于9月30日20时在越南北部减弱为热带低压后,其中心并没有深入到广西内陆却给广西带来持续3d的暴雨天气,导致全区受灾人口323.15万,因灾死亡7人;农作物受灾面积38.265万hm2,直接经济损失高达26.88亿元。利用MICAPS常规观测资料、自动站资料、卫星云图以及ECMWF等资料,对1117号强台风"纳沙"减弱后导致广西严重灾害的成因进行了分析。结果表明:①"纳沙"进入北部湾并在越南北部沿海登陆减弱为热带低压后,青藏高原东移的冷空气从低层渗透进入华南西部,并与"纳沙"东部的偏南气流在桂南汇合,形成中尺度辐合线,使得广西南部的动力辐合和上升运动得以加强和维持;②"纳沙"东部强盛的东南风急流将南海大量的水汽输送到广西上空,为持续性暴雨提供充足的水汽;③"纳沙"减弱消亡后,其外围环流位于广西南部上空的垂直风切变小,在这种环境条件下,有利于热量、水汽的积聚和辐合上升运动,有利于对流云团的发生发展并释放大量的凝结潜热,对暴雨的增幅也有重要的正反馈作用。     

毛乌素沙漠东部边缘中β尺度暴雨和冰雹综合分析

利用多普勒雷达资料、Micaps系统提供的常规观测资料和物理量场,对2006年9月20日发生在毛乌素沙漠东部边缘的一次强对流天气过程进行了分析。结果表明:冰雹和暴雨是由两块呈块状的中β尺度强对流单体造成的;地面能量比中α尺度"Ω"系统的生成,为能量的积聚和集中释放提供了有利条件;地面能量比中β尺度能量比低值舌的生成,为强对流天气的发生提供了抬升触发机制;冰雹和暴雨发生前,涡度场和散度场的耦合、影响雹暴区次级环流的形成,为雹暴的发生维持提供了动力机制;850 hPa等压面上湿正压场和湿斜压场的配合、以及湿位涡的三维空间结构,对雹暴的发生及落区有指示意义;在多普勒雷达径向速度场上,雹暴运动的前方对流层低层有中气旋生成,雹暴运动的后方对流层低层有中反气旋生成,而对流层中高层有辐散生成,且超级单体特征明显。     

两种尺度低涡背景下β中尺度强对流带的演变及成因分析

利用WRF中尺度数值模式,NCEP/NCAR再分析资料、多普勒雷达观测资料等,对2015年8月3日发生在山东地区的一次MCS过程进行数值模拟、潜热敏感性试验和对比分析,研究了在两种尺度低涡背景下MCS中β尺度强对流带的发生发展及其成因。结果表明:(1)在天气尺度的东北冷涡槽前,高层有强的高空急流存在,低层有不稳定能量释放为中尺度低涡以及对流发生提供有利背景场,低层低涡发展演变引起MCS的形成,其中伴随着β中尺度强对流带转向、合并以及弓状弯曲和暴雨的加强;(2)低层低涡切变导致多条β中尺度对流带以及小槽出现,当小槽中流场由西风-西南风变为西北风-西南风切变时,β中尺度强对流带发展并伴随小槽转竖,强对流带上南北风的加强是对流带转竖的关键;(3)由涡度方程分析,低层倾侧项对正的垂直涡度贡献最大,倾侧项中,水平涡度在垂直速度的作用下,在强对流区的前部有向正涡度的转换,在对流带合并前这种正涡度可延伸至另一个小槽中,使两个小槽的正涡度区加强合并,小槽和强对流带合并,小槽加深,槽前后南北风分别加大。在强对流带的后部为负涡度区,散度项对负涡度的贡献较大,在对流带合并期间后部散度项引起的负涡度区加大,反气旋扰动加强,导致强对流带出现弓状弯曲;(4)对流强盛前关闭潜热,导致三维风场改变,小槽减弱,扰动场分布散乱,强对流带迅速减弱消失。显见,本次过程中,潜热可引起β中尺度强对流带上小槽迅速加强有利于强对流带转竖。     

2005年渭河、汉江流域一次致洪暴雨过程浅析

采用了高空、地面常规气象观测资料、水文资料和NCEP格点资料,对2005年出现在渭河、汉江流域一次秋季连阴雨中的致洪暴雨过程进行了分析。结果表明:这次强降水持续时间长,降水总量大,地域集中,洪水汇流快,造成的灾害重;分别是渭河下游、汉江干流1981年和1983年以来的最大洪水过程。渭河洪水有7大特点,汉江洪水有3个明显特点;次致洪暴雨过程的主要影响系统是500 hPa的西风槽、副高、700 hPa及以下的低涡切变;暴雨的水汽主要来自孟加拉湾和南海;动力场上的高层辐散、中低层强辐合,使垂直上升运动强烈发展,为致洪暴雨的形成提供了非常有利的动力条件。     

干侵入对"0310"暴雨形成过程的影响

通过位涡、相对湿度与相当位温关系的讨论并结合2003年10月10-12日河北深秋时节在冀中南部发生的特大暴雨,分析了倾斜涡度发展理论.发现此次暴雨过程中存在干侵入现象,且干侵入的发生、发展对暴雨过程具有重要影响;干侵入沿相当位温高值脊向对流层低层伸展,引起对流层低层气旋性涡度的发展,使降水强度加剧.干侵入是暴雨形成的一种重要机制.     

Cholera in Sudan: An account of an epidemic in a refugee camp in eastern Sudan, May-June 1985

In 1985 cholera has been a serious problem in the horn of Africa, particularly affecting the many famine victims and refugees in that region. In this paper the history of cholera in Africa is briefly summarized, as is the background to the current refugee situation in eastern Sudan. A cholera epidemic involving 1,175 cases in two adjacent refugee camps in eastern Sudan is described. In this epidemic there were thirteen inpatient deaths and thirty-eight known home deaths from cholera. The management of the epidemic is described in detail. Overall an average of 8 1. of intravenous fluid was used per case, a higher figure than was anticipated, probably because of the unexpected degree of vomiting and the shortage of trained nursing staff.
The relationship between cholera and malnutrition is explored and hypochlorhydria is suggested as the main reason for the increased susceptibility to cholera among malnourished populations. It was observed that severely malnourished adults and children appeared to nave less severe diarrhoea with their cholera, presumably because of reduced mucosal surface area and poor enterocyte function. Finally possible means of aborting cholera epidemics are discussed.     

A retrospective statistical review of deaths owing to migration through the southeasternmost land borders of the European Union,Greece 2000–14

The land borders of Evros, Greece, have been a common entry point for undocumented migrants on their way to Europe through Turkey. Adverse conditions, however, have resulted in many human casualties over the years. On the Greek side, 334 cadavers were retrieved between 2000 and 2014. This study provides a detailed forensic account of the humanitarian disaster in Evros to create an official scientific record of the situation. It showcases the gravity of the global issue of migration relating to health and mortality, and encourages communication and continual improvement of the approach and patterns of practices surrounding the subject. A retrospective statistical research review was conducted of border‐related fatalities between 2000 and 2014, assessing the age and gender of victims, the cause of death, the location of bodies, identification rates, and country of origin. Age ranged generally from 24 to 29 years, but infants and children were among the deceased.     

Complexity,continuity and change: livelihood resilience in the Darfur region of Sudan

Darfur farming and pastoralist livelihoods are both adaptations to the environmental variability that characterises the region. This article describes this adaptation and the longer‐term transformation of these specialised livelihoods from the perspective of local communities. Over several decades farmers and herders have experienced a continuous stream of climate, conflict and other shocks, which, combined with wider processes of change, have transformed livelihoods and undermined livelihood institutions. Their well‐rehearsed specialist strategies are now combined with new strategies to cope. These responses help people get by in the short term but risk antagonising not only their specialist strategies but also those of others. A combination of factors has undermined the former integration between farming and pastoralism and their livelihood institutions. Efforts to build resilience in similar contexts must take a long‐term view of livelihood adaptation as a specialisation, and consider the implications of new strategies for the continuity and integration of livelihood specialisations.     

The cultural politics of mining and natural disaster in Indonesia: by fire and sword

Natural disasters are inevitably the outcome of cultural agonisms. The cultural politics of natural disasters are shaped by competing claims and conceptions of ‘nature’. Recent disasters in Indonesia are directly linked to these contending conceptions and the ways in which different social groups imagine risk and reward. The Sidoarjo volcanic mudflow of 2006 represents a volatile and violent exemplar of contending cultural and economic claims. Like other disasters in Indonesia and elsewhere in the developing world, this ‘natural’ disaster is characterised by differing conceptions of ‘nature’ as cultural tradition, divine force, and natural resource. A new extractive project in East Java is exhibiting similar economic and cultural agonisms, particularly around the notion of development, environment, self‐determination, and tradition. This paper examines the ‘disputes over meaning’ associated with natural disasters in contemporary societies, and the ways in which they are related to human culture, social organisation, and hierarchical systems of violence.     

Reflections on 40 years of Disasters, 1977–2017

This reflection, based on a keynote address to celebrate the fortieth anniversary of Disasters on 14 September 2017, begins by considering some of the prevailing assumptions that existed at the time of the journal's creation. Next is a summary of significant milestones during the past 40 years, covering major global trends, changing disaster impacts, and key developments in disaster risk management. Contrasting approaches in the first and fourth decade of the journal's history are then followed by examples of changes in terminology in the disaster field as an indication of shifting values. The paper goes on to explore the context of 2017, with observations of problem areas such as the loss of knowledge, failures to tackle the root causes of disasters, shortfalls in international assistance, and some negative attitudes. It closes by evaluating some current positive occurrences, including a reduction in casualties, sharing of experience, technological advances, and dramatic improvements in disaster warning.     

Risk communication in emergency response to a simulated extreme flood

Risk communication in flood incident management can be improved through developing hydrometeorological and engineering models used as tools for communicating risk between scientists and emergency management professionals. A range of such models and tools was evaluated by participating flood emergency managers during a 4-day, real-time simulation of an extreme event in the Thamesmead area in the Thames estuary close to London, England. Emergency managers have different communication needs and value new tools differently, but the indications are that a range of new tools could be beneficial in flood incident management. Provided they are communicated large model uncertainties are not necessarily unwelcome among flood emergency managers. Even so they are cautious about sharing the ownership of weather and flood modelling uncertainties.     

Fiji, land of tropical cyclones and hurricanes: A case study of agricultural rehabilitation

Tropical cyclones and hurricanes have a severe impact on the social and economic activities of affected communities. For small island nations in the Pacific region, the effects can be devastating because of their smallness. FQi and several other countries in the region are vulnerable to such disasters as they are situated in the zone where cyclones occur frequently.
During the last decade, the frequency of natural disasters and their adverse impact on die economic and social development of small nations like Fiji, has aroused awareness mat relief efforts must go beyond immediate "mopping up" operations to those which contribute to attaining longer term benefits through reconstruction and rehabilitation.
The paper outlines the 1985 agricultural rehabilitation program and discusses related issues and problems.     

Tsunami survivors' perspectives on vulnerability and vulnerability reduction: evidence from Koh Phi Phi Don and Khao Lak, Thailand

This paper presents the results of primary research with 40 survivors of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami in two communities: Khao Lak (n=20) and Koh Phi Phi Don (n=20), Thailand. It traces tsunami survivors' perceptions of vulnerability, determines whether residents felt that the tsunami affected different communities differently, identifies the populations and sub-community groups that survivors distinguished as being more vulnerable than others, highlights community-generated ideas about vulnerability reduction, and pinpoints a range of additional vulnerability reduction actions. Tsunami survivors most consistently identified the 'most vulnerable' community sub-populations as women, children, the elderly, foreigners, and the poor. In Khao Lak, however, respondents added 'Burmese migrants' to this list, whereas in Koh Phi Phi Don, they added 'Thai Muslims'. Results suggest that the two case study communities, both small, coastal, tourism-dominated communities no more than 100 kilometres apart, have differing vulnerable sub-groups and environmental vulnerabilities, requiring different post-disaster vulnerability reduction efforts.     

The ethical contours of research in crisis settings: five practical considerations for academic institutional review boards and researchers

The number of research studies in the humanitarian field is rising. It is imperative, therefore, that institutional review boards (IRBs) consider carefully the additional risks present in crisis contexts to ensure that the highest ethical standards are upheld. Ethical guidelines should represent better the specific issues inherent to research among populations grappling with armed conflict, disasters triggered by natural hazards, or health‐related emergencies. This paper seeks to describe five issues particular to humanitarian settings that IRBs should deliberate and on which they should provide recommendations to overcome associated challenges: staged reviews of protocols in acute emergencies; flexible reviews of modification requests; addressing violence and the traumatic experiences of participants; difficulties in attaining meaningful informed consent among populations dependent on aid; and ensuring reviews are knowledgeable of populations' needs. Considering these matters when reviewing protocols will yield more ethically sound research in humanitarian settings and hold researchers accountable to appropriate ethical standards.